MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF BANKING HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITYOF BANKING BUI NHU Y FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROW[.]
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF BANKING HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITYOF BANKING BUI NHU Y FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020 GRADUATION THESIS Major: Finance – Banking Code: 34 02 01 HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2022 HOCHIMINH UNIVERSITYOP BANKING HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF BANKING MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM Student: BUI NHU Y Student ID: 050606180469 Grade: HQ6-GE12 FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020 GRADUATION THESIS Major: Finance – Banking Code: 34 02 01 SUPERVISOR NGUYEN THI MY HANH, PHD HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2022 i TÓM TẮT Mục tiêu nghiên cứu xác định nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam Bài viết sử dụng 198 quan sát 22 ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam giai đoạn từ năm 2012 đến năm 2020, với biến phụ thuộc Tăng trưởng tiền gửi biến độc lập bao gồm Khả sinh lời, Tăng trưởng GDP, Tỷ lệ vốn chủ sở hữu, Tỷ lệ cho vay tiền gửi, Quy mô ngân hàng, Nợ xấu, tăng trưởng Cung tiền Lạm phát Các phương pháp ước lượng mơ hình hồi quy gộp (Pooled OLS), mơ hình hiệu ứng cố định (FEM), mơ hình hiệu ứng ngẫu nhiên (REM) ước lượng tác động ngẫu nhiên (FGLS) sử dụng để phân tích liệu Kết nghiên cứu cho thấy, biến yếu tố kinh tế vĩ mô tăng trưởng Cung tiền M2 tăng trưởng GDP có tác động nghịch đến tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Mặt khác, tỷ lệ lạm phát phát có mối quan hệ chiều khơng có ý nghĩa thống kê Các biến đặc thù ngân hàng Khả sinh lời có mối tương quan thuận với tăng trưởng tiền gửi, đó, quy mơ ngân hàng tỷ lệ vốn chủ sở hữu có tác động ngược chiều đáng kể mặt thống kê Tỷ lệ cho vay tiền gửi Nợ xấu ảnh hưởng không đáng kể tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Cuối cùng, nghiên cứu môi trường kinh tế vĩ mô ổn định quan trọng để giảm tác động tăng trưởng kinh tế cung tiền M2 từ góc độ ngân hàng cụ thể, tăng khả sinh lời điều cần thiết cho tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam Từ khóa: tăng trưởng tiền gửi, yếu tố vĩ mô, biến đặc thù ngân hàng, ngân hàng thương mại, Việt Nam ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to determine the factors affecting deposit growth of commercial banks in Vietnam The paper uses 198 observations of 22 Vietnamese commercial banks from 2012 to 2020, with dependent variable Deposit growth and independent variables including Profitability, GDP growth, Equity ratio, Loans to Deposits ratio, Bank size, Non-performing loans, Money supply growth and Inflation Pooled OLS, FEM, REM and FGLS methods have been used to analyze the data The result of the study indicates branch macroeconomic factors such as Money supply growth M2 and GDP growth have a significant negative effect on Deposit growth of commercial banks The inflation rate, on the other hand, has been found to have a positive but statistically insignificant relationship The bank-specific factors indicate Profitability has a positive and significant association, while Bank size and Equity ratio have a statistically significant negative effect on deposit growth Loan to Deposit ratio and Non-performing loans have no significant relationship with deposit growth of commercial banks Finally, the study shows that a stable macroeconomic environment is vital to reduce the impact of economic growth, M2 money supply and from a bank-specific perspective, increasing profitability is essential for the growth of deposits in commercial banks in Vietnam Keywords: deposit growth, macroeconomic, bank-specific, commercial banks, Vietnam AUTHOR’S DECLARATION I hereby confirm that this thesis entitled “FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020”, is my own work, and none of this work has been published before submission Ho Chi Minh City, November 2022 Bui Nhu Y ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere thanks to the Board of Directors, Faculty of Finance, Faculty of Banking, lecturers, officials of departments and functional departments of Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City for helping me to equip my knowledge, create the most favorable conditions during the study and implementation of this thesis With respect and gratitude, I would like to express my gratitude to Nguyen Thi My Hanh, PhD for encouraging, guiding, and helping me throughout the entire process so that the thesis research process can be completed in the best way TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT ii AUTHOR’S DECLARATION iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv TABLE OF CONTENT v ABBREVIATION LIST viii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF PICTURES .x CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Rationale 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Subject and scope of the study 1.4.1 Research subject 1.4.2 Research scope 1.5 Research method 1.6 Contribution of the thesis 1.7 Structure of the thesis CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical framework 2.1.1 Commercial bank 2.1.2 Commercial Bank Deposit 2.1.3 Factors affecting for Deposit growth 2.1.3.1 Bank size 2.1.3.2 Profitability .7 2.1.3.3 Equity ratio 2.1.3.4 Loan to Depositratio 2.1.3.5 Non-performingloans 2.1.3.6 Inflation 10 2.1.3.7 GDP growth 10 2.1.3.8 Money supply growth 11 2.2 Empirical review .11 2.2.1 Empirical Review from abroad 11 2.2.2 Empirical Review in VietNam 14 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER RESEARCH METHOD 18 3.1 Research model 18 3.1.1 Research model 18 3.1.2 Research variables 19 3.2 Research hypothesis 20 3.3 Research data .21 3.4 Selection of regression model and tests 21 3.5 Research process 25 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 25 CHAPTER RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 27 4.1 Descriptive statistics 27 4.1.1 Check the correlation betweenvariables 28 4.1.2 Multicollinearity diagnostics 29 4.2 Analysis of factors affecting Deposit Growth 30 4.2.1 Regression results 30 4.2.2 Model choice 31 4.2.3 Testing the hypothesis violations of theFEM 32 4.2.3.1 Heteroskedasticity diagnostics 32 4.2.3.2 Autocorrelation diagnostics .32 4.2.3.3 Fix the defects of the model 32 4.3 Discuss the influence of factors on Deposit Growth 33 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 36 CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 37 5.1 Conclusions .37 5.2 Recommendations .38 5.3 Limitation of the study 39 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER5 .40 CONCLUSIONS OF THETHESIS 42 REFERENCES .43 APPENDIX 46 ABBREVIATION LIST Abbreviati on OLS Meaning FEM Fixed effect model GDP INF Gross domestic product Inflation Pooled Pooled Ordinary Least Squares REM Random effect model ROA Return on asset ROE Return on equity