beyond rationality the search for wisdom in a troubled time jan 2007

[...]... leave their locations because there are no empty gates in San Francisco for the arriving planes to discharge their passengers So the planes for San Francisco can’t depart from wherever they are, but not because of any difficulty on their part; it is the weather in the Midwest that keeps the San Francisco-headed planes from departing So, because planes can’t leave from San Francisco, planes can’t leave for. .. famous for their possession of wisdom? Yes: Abraham Lincoln, a man acclaimed for his wisdom by the educated and uneducated alike for more than a century, will come to mind at once (Note that the famous statue of Lincoln in Washington, D.C., portrays him sitting down, thinking, in sharp contrast to the countless portrayals of national heroes straddling white chargers, or standing with their sword pointing... without 8 THE NEW SEARCH FOR WISDOM uncertainty we would simply be talking about logic and reason and rationality But it is uncertainty that causes—and has always caused the greatest trouble for most of us, most of the time And it is uncertainty that creates the drive for wisdom, for it is when we are uncertain about what to think, what to do, whom to trust, that we yearn for someone with wisdom although... of an echo chamber bears an inevitable relation to the input The electorate behaves about as rationally and responsibly as we should expect, given the clarity of the alternatives presented to it and the character of the information available to it.4 Thus, we address the problem of uncertainty in the environment, for it is that uncertainty that forces us to study judgment and decision making, since... are now many technical and professional books available on the topic What are they based on? On empirical research and mathematical statistics; essays are few and far between And that is what made the difference Instead of relying on long arguments to persuade one another of what we believe to be true about wisdom, we now point to the empirical data of experiments about human judgment And that made it... our uncertainty That situation will drive us to think further, to become more analytical, and that will result in our becoming more aware of uncertainty and how we are managing it Without education and training, it is doubtful that you will reach a satisfactory solution But 9/11 led to an increase in the demand for a defensible method of dealing with uncertainty on a large scale One way that many people... inconvenience and cost of allowing the error That is the case at the airport, and that is why I chose that example But although the error of assuming someone to be innocent when they are in fact guilty (the false negative) may well be intolerable at the airport, it will not always and everywhere be intolerable A false negative must always be evaluated in terms of both the consequences of making that... explication, and popular misunderstanding, and, therefore, has produced countless varieties of meaning As a result, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, there is no universal agreement on what it means to be rational A proliferation of meanings makes it necessary for responsible authors to say exactly what they mean by rationality Here is a current and important example Amartya Sen is a world-renowned... dangerous for all concerned The myth that attracted Berlin was the myth of the “great man,” the same myth that attracts the less fortunate: that the road to peace, justice, and success will be found by accepting the wisdom exhibited by someone who has already proven his wisdom 3 4 THE NEW SEARCH FOR WISDOM For example, Berlin begins his inquiry into political judgment this way: What is it to have good... what knowledge you do have (Trial lawyers have an old saying to illustrate the difference between coherence and correspondence: “If the facts are against you, pound the law If the law is against you, pound the facts If both the facts and the law are against you, pound the table.” In other words, if you can’t achieve correspondence, try urging coherence If coherence is against you, try urging the facts . Analysis: Seeking Empirical Accuracy the Hard Way 163 12 Intuition: Seeking Rationality the Easy Way 173 13 Analysis: Seeking Rationality the Hard Way 185 14 Robert Rubin: Embedded in an Uncertain World. management craft, rather than analysis Intuition is always necessary—and may be better in the end than extensive analysis.” 4 That sentence would have drawn a sneer from decision analysts as far back as the. because of snow or tornados, then planes headed for San Francisco cannot leave their locations be- cause there are no empty gates in San Francisco for the arriving planes to dis- charge their passengers.