(Luận văn) maternal health care in vietnam, demand for antenatal care and choice of delivery care services

t to ERAMUS UNIVERSITY ROTTERDAM HO CHI MINH CITY INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS ng UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS hi ep w n lo ad ju y th VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS yi pl n ua al va n MATERNAL HEALTH CARE IN VIETNAM: DEMAND FOR fu ll ANTENATAL CARE AND CHOICE OF DELIVERY CARE m oi SERVICES at nh z z By Nguyen Thi Hoai Trang jm ht vb k A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of om l.c gm Master of Art in Development Economics an Lu Academic Supervisor: Dr Truong Dang Thuy n va ey t re th HO CHI MINH CITY, June 2016 t to ng hi DECLARATION ep “This is to certify that this thesis entitled “MATERNAL HEALTH CARE IN VIETNAM: DEMAND FOR ANTENATAL CARE AND CHOICE OF DELIVERY CARE SERVICES”, w n which is submitted by me in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Art in lo ad Development Economics to the Vietnam – The Netherlands Programme (VNP) The thesis y th constitutes only my original work and due supervision and acknowledgement have been made in ju the text to all materials used yi pl HCMC, June 06th, 2016 n ua al n va Nguyen Thi Hoai Trang ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th i t to ng hi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ep I would like to acknowledge my supervisor, Dr Truong Dang Thuy for his great contribution to my thesis Without his support, my thesis would be not possible By his large w n knowledge and experiences, he gave me the informative comments and enabled me to understand lo ad my work better I would like to express my sincere gratitude to his guidance and encouragement, ju y th which make me stronger to overcome the challenges and fulfill my work completely By this chance, I would like to express my appreciation toward all lecturers of the Vietnam yi pl – Netherlands Program who have provided with valuable economic knowledge during my study al ua in this program Next, I wish to thank to all my friends here at VNP- MDE 19, who share n unforgettable memories in studying together va n Finally, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my family for their support and fu ll endurance when I pursue my postgraduate studies oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th ii t to ABSTRACT ng hi This thesis research aims to analyze the impact of individual characteristics, household ep characteristic and communities in utilization of maternal health care services in Vietnam Using the latest data of Vietnam’s Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2013-2014, it employs the Negative w n Nominal Model for demand of prenatal care visits and Multinomial Logistic Model for the choice lo of delivery facility With respect to the demand of prenatal care visits, the result shows that higher ad y th education, higher age, exposure to mass media and no religion increase the number of prenatal ju care visits while higher birth order, unmarried or separated status, ethnicity group and lower yi household wealth index decrease the number of prenatal care Moreover, living in rural, pl disadvantaged areas and the community with higher illiteracy rate decrease the demand of prenatal al n ua care visits while living in the community with higher proportion of women giving birth at health va facilities increase the demand Concerning the choice of delivery facility, more prenatal care visits n and exposure to mass media are positively associated with the choice of giving birth at public fu ll hospital In contrast, suffering the burden of taking care more children, lower household wealth m oi index, living in rural and the community with higher illiteracy ratio adversely affect the choice of at nh public hospital delivery The results suggest the improvement of maternal health program in rural and underdeveloped areas as well as universal education over the country, especially for the ethnic z z minority group jm ht vb k Keywords: prenatal care visits, the place of childbirth, individual characteristics, household om l.c gm characteristics, community characteristics, Vietnam an Lu n va ey t re th iii t to Contents ng hi DECLARATION i ep ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii w ABSTRACT iii n lo LIST of TABLES and FIGURES vii ad ju y th ABBREVIATION viii CHAPTER I yi pl INTRODUCTION al n ua 1.1 Problem statement n va 1.2 Research objectives Research questions 1.4 Structure ll fu 1.3 oi m nh CHAPTER II at z LITERATURE REVIEW z vb 2.1 The role of maternity health care jm ht 2.2 Overview of maternal health and health care in Vietnam k gm 2.2.1 The culture l.c 2.2.2 The two-child policy om 2.2.3 Maternal mortality ratio and maternal health care in Vietnam an Lu 2.3 The demand for health care 11 va 2.3.1 Theoretical background 11 n iv th 2.4.1 Theoretical background: 19 ey 2.4 The choice of health care provider 19 t re 2.3.2 Empirical Literature Review 13 t to 2.4.2 Empirical literature review 20 ng hi CHAPTER III 23 ep METHODOLOGY AND DATA DESCRIPTION 23 w 3.1 Conceptual framework 24 n lo 3.2 Empirical framework 25 ad ju y th 3.2.1 Demand for Prenatal care 26 3.2.2 Choice of birth delivery facility 27 yi pl 3.3 Data 28 al n ua 3.4 Variables definition 28 n va 3.4.1 Dependent variables 28 ll fu 3.4.2 Independent variables 29 m oi RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 31 nh 4.1 Descriptive Results 32 at z 4.2 Analysis of Demand for prenatal care 34 z vb 4.2.1 Bivariate analysis 34 jm ht 4.2.2 Analysis of Negative Binomial Model 37 k l.c gm 4.3 Analysis of Choice in the delivery care providers 41 4.3.1 Bivariate analysis 41 om 4.3.2 Analysis of Multinomial Logistic Model 44 an Lu CHAPTER V 47 va CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATION and LIMITATION 48 n Policy Recommendation 49 5.3 Limitation and Further Research 50 v th 5.2 ey Main findings 48 t re 5.1 t to REFERENCE 51 ng hi APPENDIX 56 ep STATA RESULTS 71 w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th vi t to LIST of TABLES and FIGURES ng hi List of Tables ep Table 1: Description of Variables 30 Table 2:Descriptive Results – Numeric Variables 33 w n Table : Descriptive Results - Dummy Variables 33 lo ad Table 4: Bivariate analysis in the demand of prenatal care visits 35 y th Table 5: Negative binomial regression for the demand of prenatal care visits 40 ju yi Table : Bivariate analysis in the choice of delivery care providers - numeric independent variables 41 pl n ua al Table 7:Bivariate analysis in the choice of delivery care provider – dummy independent variables 43 n va Table 8: Multinomial Logistic Regression for the choice of delivery care provider 46 ll fu Table 9: Marginal effects for the choice of delivery care provider 47 oi m at nh List of Figures z z Figure 1: MMR in Vietnam in the period of 2000 – 2015 vb jm ht Figure 2: MMR of the Asian countries in the period of 2000 – 2015 k Figure 3: Percentage of women having at least visit and at least visits during pregnancy gm l.c Figure 4: The percentage of the women taking antenatal care visits by residence in 2011 and 2014 10 om Figure 5: The percentage of the women taking antenatal care visits by ethnicity in 2011 and 2014 10 an Lu Figure The association between individual level, household level and community level characteristics with the utilization of maternal health care services 25 n va ey t re Figure 7: The association between the demand of maternal care visits and numerical independent variables 37 th vii t to ng hi ep ABBREVIATION Antenatal Care w ANC n ad Commission on Social Determinants on Heath y th General Statistics Office ju GSO lo CSDH yi Infant Mortality Ratio MDGs Millennium Development Goals MICS Multiple indicator cluster survey MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio WHO World Health Organization pl IMR n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th viii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION t to 1.1 Problem statement ng hi There is a growing concern about the maternal health care globally, especially in low ep income countries World Health Organization (WHO 2014) reported that the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in 2013 was 210 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births, decreasing w n from 380 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births in 1990 However, the ratio in developing lo ad regions was 14 times higher than in developed regions Even though maternal death is generally y th decreasing worldwide, it has yet to achieve the target of Millennium Development Goal by ju reducing the MMR by three quarters between 1990 and 2015 (WHO 2014) yi pl The maternal death has direct causes and indirect causes The direct cause results from ua al arising complications during pregnancy, delivery and postpartum, or improper treatment such n as hemorrhage, infection, obstructed labor, unsafe abortion, ectopic pregnancy and anesthesia- va related deaths while the indirect cause results from the disease which previously exists or be n ll fu not due to indirect obstetric causes like hepatitis anemia, malaria, heart disease and tetanus oi m (WHO 2005) It was reported that direct causes made up the higher number of maternal death than indirect causes with 80% of the total MMR (WHO 2005) nh at These complications could be preventable thanks to the intervention of health care such z z as antenatal care and delivery care, which was introduced by WHO in the safe motherhood vb package in 1994 (Tran 2012) Antenatal cares provide the opportunities to pregnancy women ht jm and their family to be informed of their health and the growth status of unborn baby Low birth k weights could be prevented if the pregnant women are well acknowledged about their unborn gm baby’s weight and height during the antenatal care and then improve their diet In addition, om l.c antenatal check-ups detect the danger signs and risks of pregnancy and delivery and make timely interventions For example, tetanus immunization in the antenatal care period is vital to a Lu save the life of the women and their baby The management of high blood pressure during y medical equipment, the delivery at facility could decrease the complications arising from the te re ensure to the safe delivery and give birth to healthy baby With good hygiene and adequate n WHO recommended the child birth at health facility or attended by skilled health staffs to va 2003) Furthermore, delivery care also plays an important role in reducing maternal deaths n pregnancy ensures the maternal health and increase the infant survival (WHO and UNICEF n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al RECODE of MN18 (Place of delivery) va 129 1,060 % 94.85 82.81 220 % 5.15 Total % Total n SE 1,237 76.19 83.64 oi m ll fu 48 242 17.19 23.81 16.36 136 1,280 63 100 100 100 at nh 15 z z 1,479 vb 100 k jm ht gm RECODE of MN18 (Place of delivery) l.c MD Total 135 1,097 45 1,277 % 99.26 85.7 71.43 86.34 1 183 18 202 % 0.74 14.3 28.57 13.66 Total 136 1,280 63 1,479 % 100 100 100 100 om an Lu va n y te re ac th e cd si g 65 jg hg t to ng hi Appendix 4: The association between the demand of maternal care visits and independent ep variables w n Variable Obs Mean Std Dev Min Max lo ANC 1390 5.981295 3.655771 36 NOEDU = ANC 89 1.629213 2.186643 10 ANC 1280 5.958594 3.773784 36 199 4.180905 3.023049 16 969 5.932921 3.750019 30 510 5.313725 3.662534 36 1133 5.57105 3.877033 36 346 6.205202 3.160641 20 1144 5.09965 3.523529 36 7.835821 3.64518 30 3.738053 36 2.899049 10 3.804727 36 3.2208 20 36 30 0 28 ad NOEDU = ju y th PRIMARY =0 ANC pl ANC ANC UPSECOND = ANC UPSECOND = ANC TERTIARY = ANC TERTIARY = ANC 335 MARITAL = ANC 1439 5.772064 MARITAL = ANC 40 3.825 UNWANTED = ANC 1216 5.915296 UNWANTED = ANC 263 4.813688 WORKING = ANC 259 5.826255 3.758804 jm WORKING = ANC 1220 5.696721 3.725595 MOBIPHONE = ANC 1075 5.11814 3.645614 MOBIPHONE = ANC 404 7.319307 3.476903 l.c 36 NEWSPAPER = ANC 1194 5.161642 3.590502 36 NEWSPAPER = ANC 285 8.05614 3.388621 RADIO = ANC 1299 5.665897 3.768841 36 RADIO = ANC 180 6.105556 3.425989 28 n LOWSECOND = ht ua al LOWSECOND = yi PRIMARY =1 n va ll fu oi m at nh z z vb k gm om an Lu 28 n va ey t re th 66 t to ng hi Appendix 4: The association between the demand of maternal care visits and independent ep variables (continued) w n Variable Obs Std Dev Mean lo ad TV=0 245 4.285714 4.08014 28 ANC 1234 6.004052 3.59135 36 856 7.211449 3.694904 36 623 3.669342 2.65118 18 1129 6.582817 3.594286 36 350 2.934286 2.643849 20 377 5.339523 3.613119 25 36 30 36 ANC yi POOR = Max ANC ju y th TV=1 Min ETHNIC = ANC ETHNIC = ANC NORELI=0 ANC NORELI=1 ANC 1102 5.849365 3.762596 RURAL = ANC 556 7.106115 3.757692 RURAL = ANC 923 4.884074 3.456986 RRD = ANC 1253 5.496409 3.666753 36 RRD = ANC 226 6.955752 3.845666 30 NM = ANC 1199 6.030859 3.648571 36 NM = ANC 280 4.385714 3.789413 NC = ANC 1258 5.767886 3.869204 NC = ANC 221 5.443439 2.804658 CH = ANC 1171 6.098207 3.761899 CH = ANC 308 4.279221 3.230548 20 SE = ANC 1237 5.318513 3.668561 36 SE = ANC 242 7.768595 3.358918 20 MD = ANC 1277 5.638998 3.702767 30 MD = ANC 202 6.227723 3.872036 36 n ua al ANC z pl POOR = n va ll fu oi m at nh z jm ht vb 30 k l.c gm 36 18 om 36 an Lu n va ey t re th 67 t to Appendix 5: The association between the demand of maternal care visits and numerical ng hi independent variables 40 ep w n lo 30 ad ju y th pl 20 yi n va 10 n ua al ll fu m oi 10 Number of HH members 15 at nh z 20 om l.c gm 30 k jm ht vb 40 z an Lu n 10 va ey t re th 10 20 30 Age of woman 40 50 68 ad ju y th 20 lo yi pl 10 n n ua al n va 30 w ll fu oi m at nh 40 z z k jm ht vb 30 ep om l.c gm 20 hi an Lu 10 40 ng n va ey t re t to 100 80 60 40 20 10 Children ever born POVERTY th 69 20 lo ad ju y th yi 10 n pl n ua al w n va ll fu oi m at nh 40 z z k jm ht vb 30 30 ep om l.c gm 20 hi 10 ng an Lu n va 40 t to ey t re 100 80 40 60 hospdeliratio 20 80 60 40 ILLITERACY 20 th 70 STATA RESULTS t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 71 Appendix 6: Negative Binomial Regression with test for alpha t to ng hi nbreg ANC AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING CEB HHSIZ > E POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY hospdeliratio RRD NM NC CH SE MD note: TERTIARY omitted because of collinearity note: MD omitted because of collinearity ep Fitting Poisson model: 0: 1: 2: 3: w Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration n lo log log log log likelihood likelihood likelihood likelihood = -3448.3122 = -3444.684 = -3444.6797 = -3444.6797 ad Fitting constant-only model: log log log log likelihood likelihood likelihood likelihood = = = = -4180.5339 -3888.5482 -3888.4566 -3888.4566 = = = = = -3535.4462 -3424.8311 -3401.3536 -3400.8474 -3400.8471 ju yi 0: 1: 2: 3: y th Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration pl Fitting full model: n va likelihood likelihood likelihood likelihood likelihood n log log log log log ua 0: 1: 2: 3: 4: al Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration Negative binomial regression fu Number of obs LR chi2(26) Prob > chi2 Pseudo R2 ll Dispersion = mean Log likelihood = -3400.8471 1479 975.22 0.0000 0.1254 oi m = = = = Std Err 0.133 0.037 0.104 0.724 0.005 0.102 0.524 0.000 0.715 0.000 0.021 0.053 0.131 0.382 0.000 0.000 0.035 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.255 -.0142886 0043386 -.1377443 -.0912703 -.4410754 -.1356869 -.089638 -.1462104 -.0155341 -.299022 -.2154848 -.0008176 -.1107078 -.002254 -.0140465 0035737 -.2053521 -.2509501 -.3218155 -.2533348 -.0393621 1080399 1447429 0129343 0634332 -.0791476 0123457 045617 -.0624289 0106613 -.1353753 -.0177085 1233972 0143059 0008633 -.0057915 00845 -.0073769 -.0458752 -.1312744 -.0617388 1483669 7.34 0.000 9286879 1.605557 1393498 -3.161831 -2.61559 0077545 0423481 0731246 z n va ey t re th chibar2(01) = z Likelihood-ratio test of alpha=0: at 1.50 2.08 -1.62 -0.35 -2.82 -1.63 -0.64 -4.88 -0.36 -5.20 -2.31 1.93 -1.51 -0.87 -4.71 4.83 -2.11 -2.84 -4.66 -3.22 1.14 an Lu 0556479 0221157 -.1771231 -.0527507 -.0209175 0197204 om alpha 0099076 -.6029978 -.2676209 -.176053 -.1282719 l.c -2.88871 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.013 0.151 gm /lnalpha 5.14 -3.59 -2.92 -2.49 -1.44 k 0031144 1086435 0548148 0395761 0377538 (omitted) 0312068 0358181 0384391 0394659 0923302 0377641 0345044 0213732 0066826 0417474 0504541 031688 0318918 0007952 0021059 001244 0505048 052316 0486083 0488774 0478909 (omitted) 1726739 [95% Conf Interval] jm 0160117 -.3900604 -.1601858 -.0984853 -.0542757 0468756 0745407 -.062405 -.0139186 -.2601115 -.0616706 -.0220105 -.1043196 -.0024364 -.2171986 -.1165967 0612898 -.048201 -.0006953 -.009919 0060119 -.1063645 -.1484127 -.2265449 -.1575368 0545024 1.267123 P>|z| ht AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING CEB HHSIZE POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY hospdeliratio RRD NM NC CH SE MD _cons z vb Coef nh ANC 87.67 Prob>=chibar2 = 0.000 72 Negative Binomial Regression with robust t to ng nbreg ANC AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING CEB HHSIZ > E POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY hospdeliratio RRD NM NC CH SE MD, robust note: TERTIARY omitted because of collinearity note: MD omitted because of collinearity hi ep Fitting Poisson model: pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood n log log log log lo 0: 1: 2: 3: w Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration = -3448.3122 = -3444.684 = -3444.6797 = -3444.6797 ad Fitting constant-only model: log log log log pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood ju -3535.4462 -3424.8311 -3401.3536 -3400.8474 -3400.8471 n va = = = = = n pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood pseudolikelihood ua log log log log log al 0: 1: 2: 3: 4: -4180.5339 -3888.5482 -3888.4566 -3888.4566 pl Fitting full model: Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration = = = = yi 0: 1: 2: 3: y th Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration fu Number of obs Wald chi2(26) Prob > chi2 ll Negative binomial regression Dispersion = mean Log pseudolikelihood = -3400.8471 1479 883.37 0.0000 oi m = = = 0.123 0.032 0.113 0.764 0.014 0.105 0.568 0.000 0.706 0.000 0.025 0.060 0.146 0.391 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.011 0.000 0.003 0.272 -.0126202 0064869 -.1395882 -.1047122 -.4674175 -.1362497 -.0974718 -.1468009 -.0151072 -.3092222 -.218824 -.0026948 -.113217 -.0022843 -.0145992 0031615 -.212695 -.2633065 -.3233892 -.2617433 -.0428396 1063715 1425946 0147781 0768751 -.0528056 0129085 0534508 -.0618384 0102344 -.1251751 -.0143693 1252744 0168151 0008936 -.0052388 0088623 -.000034 -.0335188 -.1297006 -.0533303 1518444 6.52 0.000 885958 1.648287 2242637 -3.328259 -2.449162 0124798 0358555 086366 z 1.54 2.15 -1.58 -0.30 -2.46 -1.62 -0.57 -4.81 -0.38 -4.63 -2.24 1.88 -1.45 -0.86 -4.15 4.13 -1.96 -2.53 -4.58 -2.96 1.10 z vb an Lu n va ey t re th 0556479 0229016 -.1517685 -.0553498 -.016389 0174932 om alpha 0091217 -.6283523 -.2650217 -.1805815 -.1260447 l.c -2.88871 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.019 0.138 gm /lnalpha 4.55 -3.21 -2.99 -2.35 -1.48 k 0035153 1215797 0534887 0418866 0366175 (omitted) 0303556 034722 0393799 0463241 1057703 0380513 0385014 0216745 0064648 0469517 0521578 0326458 0331721 0008107 0023879 0014543 0542513 0586204 0494113 0531675 0496652 (omitted) 1944753 [95% Conf Interval] jm 0160117 -.3900604 -.1601858 -.0984853 -.0542757 0468756 0745407 -.062405 -.0139186 -.2601115 -.0616706 -.0220105 -.1043196 -.0024364 -.2171986 -.1165967 0612898 -.048201 -.0006953 -.009919 0060119 -.1063645 -.1484127 -.2265449 -.1575368 0545024 1.267123 P>|z| ht AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING CEB HHSIZE POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY hospdeliratio RRD NM NC CH SE MD _cons z at Coef nh Robust Std Err ANC 73 Marginal effect t to ng mfx hi ep Marginal effects after nbreg y = Predicted number of events (predict) = 5.0515799 Std Err n ad y th z yi pl 95% C.I 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.017 0.133 0.127 0.036 0.105 0.765 0.005 0.098 0.570 0.000 0.706 0.000 0.021 0.057 0.148 0.392 0.000 0.000 0.042 0.008 0.000 0.002 0.281 045774 -2.52184 -1.23543 -.891903 -.622539 -.067832 025243 -.679945 -.533684 -1.98295 -.667562 -.49885 -.740463 -.076309 -1.5335 -1.05719 -.008902 -.576808 -.011548 -.073606 016073 -1.01755 -1.2457 -1.47981 -1.24237 -.229187 ] n n va ll oi m 115994 -.818817 -.292565 -.088415 081978 546531 745482 064067 392405 -.347358 056655 274874 -.313495 051694 -.62791 -.085831 618986 086857 004523 -.026608 044666 -.018598 -.187479 -.638784 -.279329 790091 X at nh z z 27.5842 060176 13455 344828 233942 273158 192698 121704 834348 027045 177823 824882 1.84314 5.75321 421231 236646 745098 62407 39.9499 7.60748 90.8046 152806 189317 149425 208249 163624 (*) dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from to k jm ht vb [ ua P>|z| fu 4.52 -3.84 -3.18 -2.39 -1.50 1.53 2.10 -1.62 -0.30 -2.79 -1.65 -0.57 -4.84 -0.38 -4.68 -2.31 1.90 -1.45 -0.86 -4.18 4.16 -2.03 -2.65 -4.94 -3.10 1.08 al 01791 43445 24053 20498 17973 15673 18374 1898 23625 41725 18475 19738 10892 03265 23102 2478 16018 16931 0041 01199 00729 25484 26996 21455 24568 26002 ju 0808842 -1.670329 -.7639974 -.490159 -.2702806 2393492 3853626 -.307939 -.0706393 -1.165153 -.3054536 -.111988 -.526979 -.0123077 -1.080706 -.5715099 3050419 -.2449753 -.0035125 -.0501067 0303695 -.5180725 -.7165916 -1.059297 -.7608472 2804522 lo AGE NOEDU* PRIMARY* LOWSEC~D* UPSECOND* MOBIPH~E* NEWSPA~R* RADIO* TV* MARITAL* UNWANTED* WORKING* CEB HHSIZE POOR* ETHNIC* NORELI* RURAL* POVERTY ILLITE~Y hospde~o RRD* NM* NC* CH* SE* dy/dx w variable om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 74 t to Appendix 7: Multinominal Logistics Reression ng hi ep mlogit DELIVERY ANC AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING > CEB HHSIZE POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY RRD NM NC CH SE MD, robust note: TERTIARY omitted because of collinearity note: MD omitted because of collinearity Iteration 0: log pseudolikelihood = -708.35443 Iteration 1: log pseudolikelihood = -528.53357 Iteration 2: log pseudolikelihood = -432.99207 Iteration 3: log pseudolikelihood = -392.62785 Iteration 4: log pseudolikelihood = -387.30586 Iteration 5: log pseudolikelihood = -386.64721 Iteration 6: log pseudolikelihood = -386.51174 Iteration 7: log pseudolikelihood = -386.48639 Iteration 8: log pseudolikelihood = -386.48093 Iteration 9: log pseudolikelihood = -386.47959 Iteration 10: log pseudolikelihood = -386.47931 Iteration 11: log pseudolikelihood = -386.47925 Iteration 12: log pseudolikelihood = -386.47924 w n lo ad ju y th yi pl -.5126496 -.0133922 87926 4332457 -.5065291 -.6681007 -1.357971 -12.20788 -1.21934 -.4421614 -.576598 1253515 5073354 3736658 -.0792065 1.953048 1.356612 3058496 8734962 -.0149591 0260589 1.524815 1.826784 1.868156 1.941388 1.428129 -4.958635 z P>|z| 1479 17850.06 0.0000 0.4544 [95% Conf Interval] ll -4.86 -0.43 1.05 0.56 -0.64 -0.75 0.000 0.669 0.292 0.572 0.524 0.455 -.7194618 -.0747105 -.7573726 -1.069819 -2.064407 -2.421135 -.3058374 047926 2.515893 1.93631 1.051349 1.084934 -1.23 -18.64 -1.77 -1.41 -0.86 0.30 1.15 2.15 -1.39 2.21 2.60 0.85 1.80 -1.22 2.67 1.35 1.87 1.74 2.03 1.43 0.218 0.000 0.077 0.160 0.388 0.761 0.251 0.032 0.164 0.027 0.009 0.394 0.072 0.222 0.008 0.178 0.061 0.082 0.042 0.153 -3.518106 -13.49158 -2.568863 -1.058914 -1.885867 -.6825923 -.3585595 0327021 -.1907197 2182228 335019 -.3967256 -.0768403 -.0389482 0069199 -.6943431 -.0858863 -.2403044 0695805 -.5293126 8021644 -10.92418 1301825 1745913 7326705 9332953 1.37323 7146296 0323068 3.687872 2.378205 1.008425 1.823833 00903 045198 3.743973 3.739453 3.976616 3.813195 3.385571 -2.56 0.011 -8.760404 -1.156866 oi at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va 1055184 0312854 835032 7668838 7948502 8944219 (omitted) 1.10213 6549611 6885448 3146755 6680064 4122238 4417912 1739643 0568956 8851309 5212304 3584633 4848745 0122396 009765 1.132244 9758699 1.075765 9550212 9987133 (omitted) 1.939714 m = = = = fu ANC AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING CEB HHSIZE POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY RRD NM NC CH SE MD _cons Robust Std Err n Coef Number of obs Wald chi2(52) Prob > chi2 Pseudo R2 va DELIVERY n Log pseudolikelihood = -386.47924 ua al Multinomial logistic regression (base outcome) ey t re th 75 t to Multinominal Logistics Reression (continued) ng hi ep w n lo ad y th yi pl 0.186 0.341 0.522 0.263 0.079 0.452 -.0209573 -.0979637 -1.132715 -1.645218 -1.483921 -.9717358 1080886 0338716 2.230174 4483558 0803074 4328098 0.60 0.10 0.24 -0.79 -0.43 -0.07 -1.77 1.15 -0.59 -1.91 -0.26 1.44 -2.15 0.87 0.25 -3.53 -51.36 -2.28 -1.17 -1.84 0.546 0.923 0.807 0.431 0.665 0.946 0.076 0.249 0.558 0.056 0.794 0.149 0.032 0.384 0.804 0.000 0.000 0.023 0.243 0.065 -.4425446 -.6370095 -.656995 -1.133688 -2.61834 -.7957384 -1.18369 -.1642344 -.1831181 -1.856376 -1.025048 -.1694912 -1.223851 -.0091314 -.0320609 -3.263873 -18.45622 -1.801042 -1.202263 -1.635776 8367488 7033339 8442766 4840116 1.669892 742738 0596934 6341262 0987916 022185 7840037 1.11681 -.0559031 0237235 0413334 -.9316039 -17.09939 -.1345672 3045045 0503249 ua al 1.32 -0.95 0.64 -1.12 -1.76 -0.75 va n ll fu -0.55 0.585 -3.325139 1.874721 oi m 0329205 0336321 8578957 5340849 3990452 358309 (omitted) 3263564 3419306 3829845 4126861 1.093957 3924757 3171955 2036672 0719171 4792335 4615013 3281441 2979514 0083815 0187234 5949775 3461364 425129 3843864 4301356 (omitted) 1.326519 n 0435657 -.032046 5487294 -.5984313 -.7018067 -.269463 1971021 0331622 0936408 -.3248382 -.474224 -.0265002 -.5619982 2349459 -.0421632 -.9170955 -.1205223 4736594 -.6398772 007296 0046362 -2.097738 -17.7778 -.9678047 -.4488791 -.7927254 -.7252088 ju ANC AGE NOEDU PRIMARY LOWSECOND UPSECOND TERTIARY MOBIPHONE NEWSPAPER RADIO TV MARITAL UNWANTED WORKING CEB HHSIZE POOR ETHNIC NORELI RURAL POVERTY ILLITERACY RRD NM NC CH SE MD _cons at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 76 t to Multinominal Logistics Reression – Marginal effect ng hi mfx, predict (p outcome(1)) ep Marginal effects after mlogit y = Pr(DELIVERY==1) (predict, p outcome(1)) = 00031878 w variable n dy/dx lo ad ju y th yi pl ua al n 0.009 0.684 0.494 0.637 0.514 0.388 0.123 0.054 0.070 0.271 0.311 0.769 0.208 0.117 0.230 0.141 0.114 0.378 0.146 0.304 0.098 0.423 0.337 0.378 0.327 0.402 -.000286 -.000041 -.000025 000016 -.000791 001641 -.000514 000841 -.000602 000301 -.000594 000231 -.000779 000093 -.006742 000061 -.000542 000021 -.000457 000128 -.000416 000133 -.000236 000319 -.000077 000355 -.00003 000268 -.000066 000016 -.000281 001975 -.00016 001492 -.000111 000292 -.00009 000606 -.000014 4.3e-06 -1.5e-06 000018 -.001316 003132 -.001237 003611 -.001612 004253 -.001268 003806 -.001072 002672 ll fu [ 95% C.I m nh z z X 5.71941 27.5842 060176 13455 344828 233942 273158 192698 121704 834348 027045 177823 824882 1.84314 5.75321 421231 236646 745098 62407 39.9499 7.60748 152806 189317 149425 208249 163624 k jm ht vb (*) dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from to mfx, predict (p outcome(2)) ] at -2.61 -0.41 0.68 0.47 -0.65 -0.86 -1.54 -1.92 -1.81 -1.10 -1.01 0.29 1.26 1.57 -1.20 1.47 1.58 0.88 1.45 -1.03 1.65 0.80 0.96 0.88 0.98 0.84 P>|z| oi 00006 00001 00062 00035 00023 00021 00022 00174 00014 00015 00014 00014 00011 00008 00002 00058 00042 0001 00018 00000 00001 00113 00124 0015 00129 00096 z va -.0001634 -4.25e-06 0004249 0001634 -.0001505 -.0001815 -.0003431 -.0033406 -.0002605 -.0001644 -.0001417 0000416 0001389 000119 -.0000252 0008473 0006663 0000906 0002581 -4.77e-06 8.30e-06 0009084 001187 0013201 0012689 0008003 n ANC AGE NOEDU* PRIMARY* LOWSEC~D* UPSECOND* MOBIPH~E* NEWSPA~R* RADIO* TV* MARITAL* UNWANTED* WORKING* CEB HHSIZE POOR* ETHNIC* NORELI* RURAL* POVERTY ILLITE~Y RRD* NM* NC* CH* SE* Std Err om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 77 t to ng hi mfx, predict (p outcome(2)) ep Marginal effects after mlogit y = Pr(DELIVERY==2) (predict, p outcome(2)) = 99800811 w n variable Std Err lo ju y th yi z n ua al -.000071 -.000054 -.006377 -.000708 -.000013 -.000507 -.001242 -.000306 -.00128 -.000956 -.001532 -.001303 -.000539 -.001217 -.000144 -.001242 -.002128 -.001721 -.000304 -.000036 -.000078 -.001244 030173 -.003159 -.003343 -.001854 95% C.I ] ll m at nh 000251 00017 00317 002013 00246 00171 001238 006864 001476 002498 003094 001308 002543 000194 000335 0025 001188 000117 002142 000021 000046 003469 060013 002916 002135 002338 z z 5.71941 27.5842 060176 13455 344828 233942 273158 192698 121704 834348 027045 177823 824882 1.84314 5.75321 421231 236646 745098 62407 39.9499 7.60748 152806 189317 149425 208249 163624 ht vb k (*) dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from to X jm 0.272 0.313 0.510 0.347 0.052 0.287 0.997 0.073 0.889 0.381 0.508 0.997 0.202 0.156 0.433 0.510 0.578 0.087 0.141 0.614 0.614 0.355 0.000 0.938 0.666 0.821 n va [ oi 1.10 1.01 -0.66 0.94 1.94 1.06 -0.00 1.79 0.14 0.88 0.66 0.00 1.27 -1.42 0.78 0.66 -0.56 -1.71 1.47 -0.50 -0.50 0.93 5.92 -0.08 -0.43 0.23 P>|z| fu 00008 00006 00244 00069 00063 00057 00063 00183 0007 00088 00118 00067 00079 00036 00012 00095 00085 00047 00062 00001 00003 0012 00761 00155 0014 00107 pl 0000904 0000578 -.0016039 0006525 0012234 0006015 -2.26e-06 0032791 000098 0007713 0007809 2.32e-06 0010022 -.0005112 0000956 0006292 -.0004701 -.0008017 0009188 -7.42e-06 -.000016 0011125 0450928 -.0001213 -.0006039 000242 ad ANC AGE NOEDU* PRIMARY* LOWSEC~D* UPSECOND* MOBIPH~E* NEWSPA~R* RADIO* TV* MARITAL* UNWANTED* WORKING* CEB HHSIZE POOR* ETHNIC* NORELI* RURAL* POVERTY ILLITE~Y RRD* NM* NC* CH* SE* dy/dx om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 78 t to ng hi mfx, predict (p outcome(3)) ep Marginal effects after mlogit y = Pr(DELIVERY==3) (predict, p outcome(3)) = 00167311 w variable dy/dx Std Err z P>|z| [ 0.171 0.338 0.615 0.169 0.065 0.421 0.561 0.916 0.813 0.481 0.582 0.946 0.141 0.259 0.556 0.054 0.786 0.118 0.047 0.381 0.805 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.183 0.022 -.000032 -.000163 -.003418 -.001978 -.002213 -.001442 -.000819 -.00108 -.001183 -.002296 -.002918 -.001309 -.00266 -.000288 -.000305 -.002976 -.00161 -.000181 -.002336 -.000015 -.000054 -.002765 -.060969 -.001951 -.001644 -.001932 95% C.I ] X n ad ju yi pl ua n n va 000178 000056 005776 000346 000067 000602 00151 001203 001508 001082 001639 001221 000378 001073 000164 000023 001217 001603 -.000017 000039 000069 -.001277 -.03159 -.000446 000314 -.000153 ll fu at nh z z k jm ht vb 5.71941 27.5842 060176 13455 344828 233942 273158 192698 121704 834348 027045 177823 824882 1.84314 5.75321 421231 236646 745098 62407 39.9499 7.60748 152806 189317 149425 208249 163624 oi (*) dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from to m 1.37 -0.96 0.50 -1.38 -1.84 -0.81 0.58 0.11 0.24 -0.70 -0.55 -0.07 -1.47 1.13 -0.59 -1.93 -0.27 1.56 -1.99 0.88 0.25 -5.32 -6.17 -3.12 -1.33 -2.30 al 00005 00006 00235 00059 00058 00052 00059 00058 00069 00086 00116 00065 00077 00035 00012 00076 00072 00046 00059 00001 00003 00038 00749 00038 0005 00045 y th 000073 -.0000535 001179 -.0008159 -.0010729 -.00042 0003454 0000615 0001626 -.0006069 -.0006391 -.000044 -.001141 0003922 -.0000704 -.0014765 -.0001962 0007111 -.0011769 0000122 7.73e-06 -.0020209 -.0462798 -.0011988 -.0006651 -.0010423 lo ANC AGE NOEDU* PRIMARY* LOWSEC~D* UPSECOND* MOBIPH~E* NEWSPA~R* RADIO* TV* MARITAL* UNWANTED* WORKING* CEB HHSIZE POOR* ETHNIC* NORELI* RURAL* POVERTY ILLITE~Y RRD* NM* NC* CH* SE* om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 79