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ng MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va Phùng Viết Nhiên fu ll THE FACTORS INFLUENCING INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR’S BEHAVIOR IN VIETNAM STOCK EXCHANGE oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb MASTER’S THESIS om l.c n a Lu n va Supervisor Professor- Dr VÕ THỊ QUÝ gm In Business Administration Ology code: 60.34.05 y te re ac th Ho Chi Minh City 2010 Acknowledgement ng hi ep w n This research project would not have been possible without the support of many lo ad people Firstly I wish to express my deep sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Dr Vo y th Thi Quy for her invaluable advices and helps Without her, this thesis could not have ju been completed yi pl I would like to express my deepest gratitude and honor to my dear parents for al n ua not only the love they devote to me but also for the time I took from them which n va should have been my devotion to them in their aged time oi m helped me in English editing ll fu Special thanks to my wife’s assistance in this study She has encouraged me and at nh My thanks would also go to all of my colleagues from Nguyen Tat Thanh college, my classmates, especially, Lam Hong Phong, Nguyen Thanh Trung and Ms z z Dang Hai Yen, Ms Nguyen Nhu Chang for all of their friendship and encouragement vb jm ht Finally, I also wish to thank my friends in Ocean Security, Dai A Security, Nhat k Viet Security, Vietcombank, HSBC, National university… for their great support My gm thanks would also go to the respondents, without them, my thesis could not have been om l.c done n a Lu n va y te re ac th i ng Abstract hi ep This paper aimed at identifying the most and the least influencing factors on the w n Vietnamese investor’s behavior Base on Al-Tamimi’s questionnaire, this research lo developed a modified questionnaire The questionnaire included thirty items that ad y th belong to five categories: self-image/firm-image co-incidence, accounting information, ju neutral information, advocate recommendations, personal financial needs yi pl This study was carried out in 226 individual investors in Hochiminh stock exchange ua al The results showed that Vietnamese individual investors select stock base on some n factors The most interested factors were Condition of financial statements, Expected va n corporate earnings, Expected profit from stock, Reputation of the firm, ll fu Fluctuation/developments in the VN stock index, Government's policy (tax, monetary, oi m interest rate), Current economic indicators (such as GDP, inflation ), Affordable share at nh price, Firm status in industry, Expected dividends The least factors were related to advocate recommendations such as Self-company recommendation, Friend or family z z member opinions, Opinions of the firm’s stockholders, Broker recommendation, vb jm ht specialist recommendation, and Security company’s recommendations Factors namely Fluctuation of gold's price, Minimizing risk, Fluctuation of dollars' price, Feelings for a k om l.c least influencing factors on investor’s behavior gm firm's products and services, Reputation of the firm's shareholders or leader are also the n a Lu n va y te re Key word: individual investor’s behavior ac th ii ng TABLE OF CONTENT hi ep Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION w n lo 1.1 Introduction page 1 ad y th 1.2 Research background page ju 1.3 Problem statement page 3 yi pl 1.4 Research objective page ua al n 1.5 Scope and methodology of the study page va n 1.6 Contribution page fu ll 1.7 Structure of the study page oi m Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW nh at 2.1 Introduction page z z 2.2 Some of related theory page ht vb k jm 2.2.1 The concept of investors page gm 2.2.2 Security Selection: the Treynor-Black model page om l.c 2.2.3 Security analysis page 2.2.4 Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis page 13 a Lu 2.3 Previous researches page 15 n 2.4 Research question .page 25 n va 10 te re 11 2.5 Conclusion page 25 y 3.1 Introduction .page 26 12 iii ac th Chapter 3: METHODOLOGY 3.2 Research design page 26 ng hi 3.3 Develop questionnaire page 29 ep 3.4 Pilot test page 31 w n 3.5 Main survey .page 32 lo ad 3.6 Conclusion .page 34 13 y th ju Chapter 4: DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS yi 4.1 Introduction page 35 pl 14 al 4.2 Descriptions of sample page 35 n ua 15 4.3 Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) page 37 n va 16 4.4 Reliability testing page 40 ll fu 17 m 4.5 The most and the least factors influence on investor’s behavior page 42 oi 18 nh 19 at 4.5.1 Effect of groups of variables on investor’s behavior .page 42 4.5.2 Effect of separate variables on investor’s behavior page 48 z 20 z vb 4.6 Conclusion page 53 Chapter 5: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS gm 22 k jm ht 21 5.1 Introduction page 56 l.c 5.3 Implications of this study page 58 a Lu 24 5.2 Summary of the study page 57 om 23 n 5.4 Conclusions of this study page 61 n va 5.5 Limitations and recommendations for further research page 61 y te re 25 ac th iv ng LIST OF REFERENCES page 62 hi ep Appendix – Questionnaire (Vietnamese version) page 65 Appendix – Observed variables page 68 w n Appendix - Descriptive Statistics of variables page 69 lo ad 26 ju y th Appendix – Compare mean of variables page 70 yi pl LIST OF FIGURES al Figure 1.1 Outline of chapter page n ua 27 Figure 1.2 Structure of the study page n va 28 Figure 2.1 The structure of Chapter page ll fu 29 m nh Figure 3.2 Research process page 28 at 31 Figure 3.1 Outline of chapter page 26 oi 30 z Figure 4.1 Outline of chapter page 35 z 32 vb Figure 5.1 – Outline of chapter page 56 k jm ht 33 om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re ac th v ng LIST OF TABLES hi ep Table 2.1: The factors influencing on equity selection process of individual investor in w n USA in Nagy’s research page 17 lo ad Table 2.2: The factors influencing on equity selection process of individual investor in y th Greek in Merikas’ research page 19 ju yi Table 2.3: The factors influence on individual investor behavior in UAE in Al- pl ua al Tamimi’s research page 23 n Table 3.1: The measurement of scale of variables in this research page 30 va n Table 4.1 – Sample characteristics page 36 fu ll Table 4.2 – KMO and Bartlett's Test page 38 oi m at nh Table 4.3: Rotated component matrix page 39 z Table 4.4: Reliability of the measurement instrument page 40 z ht vb Table 4.5: Frequency Distribution of Variables that Significantly Influence the jm Vietnamese behavior page 43 k Table 4.6: Multiple Comparisons of groups page 47 gm Table 4.7: Descriptive Statistics of variables .page 49 l.c om Table 4.8: The most influencing factors on Vietnamese investor’s behavior page 51 a Lu Table 4.9: The least influencing factors on Vietnamese investor’s behavior page 51 n n va Table 4.10: The most influencing factors in this research, Nagy, Merikas and Al- vi ac Tamimi page 55 th Table 4.11: The least influencing factors in this research, Nagy, Merikas and Al- y te re Tamimi page 52 ng hi Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION ep w 1.1 Introduction n lo ad This chapter portrays general introduction for the current study with which ju y th research problem, research objectives and research questions are provided as the yi rationale for this study An introduction to the research methodology to be used and the pl scope of the study is also addressed in this chapter At the end of the chapter, the al n ua structure of this study is provided The Outline of this chapter is shown in figure 1.1 Figure 1.1 Outline of chapter va 45 n Introduction ll fu 1.1 m Research background oi 1.2 at nh Problem statement 1.4 Research objectives 1.5 Scope and Methodology 1.6 Contribution 1.7 Structure of the study z 1.3 z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va 1.2 Research background The Vietnam Stock Exchange (VSE) was established in 2000 At that time, ac (HOSE), market is expressed through VN index Initially, two equity issues were th trading in the stock market was operated only at the HoChiMinh Stock Exchange y te re 10 ng listed, Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Joint Stock Corporation (‘REE’) and hi Saigon Cable and Telecommunication Material Joint Stock Company (‘SACOM’) ep Until 2005, there were only 41 equities issues listed During that period VN index w fluctuated erratically, sometime it raised up to nearly 600 score sometime it fell down n lo nearly 100 ad ju y th As of 2006, particularly in end-year half, quantity of listed companied increased yi quickly, 196 companies were listed at the end of 2006 In total there were thirteen pl licensed securities companies Along with rising of listed companies, VN index al ua increased continuously from 600 in middle to nearly 1000 at the end of 2006 Not stop n at that point, with the event that Vietnam joined to WTO at the end of 2006, the stock va n market really broke out The market was hot continuously regardless of the warning of fu ll experts and pinnacle of VN index was 1170 on 13/03/2007 oi m nh There had been 249 companies listed on stock market until 2007 Of these, 138 at are at HOSE, left ones are at Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) With 249 being listed, z z market capitalization is about 491 billions VND, equivalent to 30 billion US dollars vb jm ht Comparing Vietnam market capitalization to other stock markets of developed countries, perhaps Vietnam market is not worth considering However, 30 billion US k gm dollars market capitalization is equivalent to 43% GDP of the whole nation that would om l.c be significant to Vietnam Over years of establishment and development, in general, the market has a Lu positive contribution The Vietnamese Stock market have experience strong n n va fluctuation: from over 1100 on 13/03/2007 down to over 250 point in the beginning of buy stock but at the highest (over 1100 point), some investors fight to buy stock So ac behavior? th what make investors buy and/or sell stock? Which factors influence investor’s y te re 2008 During this time, at the cheapest (over 250 point), some investors are hesitant to ng 11 1.3 Problem statement hi ep Vietnam security market had the highest growth rate in the Asia Pacific in 2006 with 145%, even higher than Sanghai security market with 130% growth rate And at w n early 2007, VN security market continuously increased with 46% - the highest growth lo rate in the world This fierce increase of VN market made shock to not only many ad y th domestic investors but also security experts including market control officers Along ju with this, the worry about risk of forming buble in the security market had been a yi pl controversial topic al n ua A lot of reasons had been made to explain too hot development of VN security va maket Domestic investors blamed for foreign investors, foreign investors blamed for n domestic investors’ “craziness” However, in general most of people supposed that fu ll main reason was “herd psyshology behavior”, crowd psychology investment of –lack of knowledge and oi investors m domestic personal expectation nh at ( http://www.saga.vn/view.aspx?id=2953) Is it right? So what factors affect on 34 z vb 1.4 Research objective jm ht 12 z Vietnamese individual investors’ behavior? k The purpose of this study is examining the most and the least influencing factors on the a Lu 1.5.1 Scope of the study om 1.5 Scope and methodology of the study l.c 13 gm Vietnamese individual investors’ behavior n The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange have more listed company and trading va n volume than Hanoi Stock Exchange, so my study just focuses on individual investors 35 te re at the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Center Therefore they may not represent for all y ac th individual investors in Vietnamese Stock Exchange 1.5.2 Research Method .15044 09109 1.000 -.1867 4876 V36 09292 09109 1.000 -.2443 4301 V41 19912 09109 1.000 -.1381 5363 V42 36726* 09109 013 0301 7044 V43 31858 09109 109 -.0186 6558 V44 19469 09109 1.000 -.1425 5319 V45 23451 09109 1.000 -.1027 5717 y th 27434 09109 603 -.0628 6115 V53 15044 09109 1.000 -.1867 4876 * 09109 000 -1.1558 -.4814 03097 09109 1.000 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1.000 -.5097 1646 V45 -.13274 09109 1.000 -.4699 2044 V46 -.09292 09109 1.000 -.4301 2443 V53 -.21681 09109 1.000 -.5540 1204 V54 -1.18584* 09109 000 -1.5230 -.8487 V11 -.31858 09109 109 -.6558 0186 V12 -.34956* 09109 029 -.6867 -.0124 y th -.92035* 09109 000 -1.2575 -.5832 V14 -.78319* 09109 000 -1.1204 -.4460 * 09109 000 -1.4965 -.8221 -1.24779* 09109 000 -1.5850 -.9106 -.69469* ua 09109 000 -1.0319 -.3575 V24 -.72124* 09109 000 -1.0584 -.3841 V25 * 09109 000 -1.1425 -.4681 000 -1.2089 -.5345 000 -1.2133 -.5389 000 -1.1646 -.4903 -.5053 1690 -.5628 1115 -.4566 2177 -.2885 3858 -.4611 2133 -.4212 2531 -.3814 2929 ng V44 hi ep w n lo V43 ad V13 ju -1.15929 al n V23 pl V22 yi V21 -.87168 09109 V33 -.87611* 09109 V34 -.82743* 09109 V35 -.16814 09109 V36 -.22566 09109 1.000 V41 -.11947 09109 1.000 V42 04867 09109 1.000 V44 -.12389 09109 1.000 V45 -.08407 09109 1.000 V46 -.04425 09109 1.000 V53 -.16814 09109 1.000 -.5053 V54 * -1.13717 09109 000 -1.4743 V11 -.19469 09109 1.000 -.5319 V12 -.22566 09109 1.000 -.5628 1115 V13 -.79646* 09109 000 -1.1336 -.4593 V14 * 09109 000 -.9965 -.3221 V21 * -1.03540 09109 000 -1.3726 -.6982 V22 -1.12389* 09109 000 -1.4611 -.7867 oi m V32 gm ll fu * n va -.80531 at nh 1.000 z z k jm ht vb om l.c -.8000 a Lu V44 1690 1425 n n y te re ac th 80 va -.65929 -.57080* 09109 000 -.9080 -.2336 V24 * -.59735 09109 000 -.9345 -.2602 V25 -.68142* 09109 000 -1.0186 -.3442 V32 -.74779* 09109 000 -1.0850 -.4106 V33 -.75221* 09109 000 -1.0894 -.4150 V34 * -.70354 09109 000 -1.0407 -.3664 V35 -.04425 09109 1.000 -.3814 2929 y th -.10177 09109 1.000 -.4389 2354 V41 00442 09109 1.000 -.3328 3416 17257 09109 1.000 -.1646 5097 09109 1.000 -.2133 4611 09109 1.000 -.2974 3770 09109 1.000 -.2575 4168 09109 1.000 -.3814 2929 000 -1.3505 -.6761 1.000 -.5717 1027 826 -.6027 0717 -1.1735 -.4991 -1.0363 -.3619 -1.4124 -.7380 -1.5009 -.8265 -.9478 -.2734 -.9743 gm -.3000 -1.0584 -.3841 ng V23 hi ep w n lo ad V36 ju 12389 ua 03982 n va V46 07965 V53 -.04425 V54 * -1.01327 V11 -.23451 09109 V12 -.26549 09109 V13 * 09109 V14 * -.69912 09109 000 V21 -1.07522* 09109 000 V22 -1.16372* 09109 000 V23 * 09109 000 V24 * -.63717 09109 000 V25 -.72124* 09109 000 V32 -.78761* 09109 000 -1.1248 V33 * 09109 000 -1.1292 V34 * -.74336 09109 000 -1.0805 V35 -.08407 09109 1.000 -.4212 2531 V36 -.14159 09109 1.000 -.4788 1956 V41 -.03540 09109 1.000 -.3726 3018 V42 13274 09109 1.000 -.2044 4699 V43 08407 09109 1.000 -.2531 4212 09109 oi m at nh 000 z z k jm ht vb om l.c -.4504 -.4549 a Lu -.79204 ll -.61062 fu -.83628 n V45 al V45 pl V43 yi V42 -.4062 n n va y te re ac th 81 -.03982 09109 1.000 -.3770 2974 V46 03982 09109 1.000 -.2974 3770 V53 -.08407 09109 1.000 -.4212 2531 V54 -1.05310* 09109 000 -1.3903 -.7159 V46 V11 -.27434 09109 603 -.6115 0628 lo V12 -.30531 09109 187 -.6425 0319 V13 -.87611* 09109 000 -1.2133 -.5389 y th -.73894* 09109 000 -1.0761 -.4018 V21 -1.11504* 09109 000 -1.4522 -.7779 * 09109 000 -1.5407 -.8664 -.65044* 09109 000 -.9876 -.3133 -.67699* 09109 000 -1.0142 -.3398 V25 -.76106* 09109 000 -1.0982 -.4239 V32 * 09109 000 -1.1646 -.4903 000 -1.1690 -.4947 000 -1.1204 -.4460 1.000 -.4611 2133 -.5186 1558 -.4124 2620 -.2443 4301 -.2929 3814 -.4168 2575 -.3770 gm 2974 -.4611 2133 ng V44 hi ep w n ad V14 ju -1.20354 n ua al V24 pl V23 yi V22 ll fu * n va -.82743 -.83186 09109 V34 -.78319* 09109 V35 -.12389 09109 V36 -.18142 09109 V41 -.07522 09109 1.000 V42 09292 09109 1.000 V43 04425 09109 1.000 V44 -.07965 09109 1.000 V45 -.03982 09109 1.000 V53 -.12389 09109 1.000 V54 -1.09292* 09109 000 -1.4301 V11 -.15044 09109 1.000 -.4876 V12 -.18142 09109 1.000 -.5186 V13 -.75221* 09109 000 -1.0894 -.4150 V14 -.61504* 09109 000 -.9522 -.2779 V21 * 09109 000 -1.3283 -.6540 V22 * -1.07965 09109 000 -1.4168 -.7425 V23 -.52655* 09109 000 -.8637 -.1894 oi m V33 at nh 1.000 z k jm ht vb om l.c 1867 a Lu 1558 n n y te re ac th 82 va -.99115 z V53 -.7557 -.55310* 09109 000 -.8903 -.2159 V25 * -.63717 09109 000 -.9743 -.3000 V32 -.70354* 09109 000 -1.0407 -.3664 V33 -.70796* 09109 000 -1.0451 -.3708 V34 -.65929* 09109 000 -.9965 -.3221 V35 00000 09109 1.000 -.3372 3372 V36 -.05752 09109 1.000 -.3947 2797 y th 04867 09109 1.000 -.2885 3858 V42 21681 09109 1.000 -.1204 5540 16814 09109 1.000 -.1690 5053 09109 1.000 -.2929 3814 09109 1.000 -.2531 4212 09109 1.000 -.2133 4611 09109 000 -1.3062 -.6318 000 4814 1.1558 000 4504 1.1248 1.000 -.1204 5540 0168 6912 -.3593 3151 -.4478 2266 1053 7797 0788 7531 -.0053 6690 -.0717 6027 ng V24 hi ep w n lo ad V41 ju 04425 ua 08407 n 12389 V54 * -.96903 V11 81858 V12 78761* 09109 V13 21681 09109 V14 * 35398 09109 V21 -.02212 09109 1.000 V22 -.11062 09109 1.000 V23 44248* 09109 000 V24 * 41593 09109 001 V25 33186 09109 063 V32 26549 09109 826 gm ll * fu V46 n va V54 al V45 pl V44 yi V43 V33 26106 09109 964 -.0761 V34 30973 09109 157 -.0274 V35 * 96903 09109 000 6318 V36 91150* 09109 000 5743 1.2487 V41 1.01770* 09109 000 6805 1.3549 V42 * 09109 000 8487 1.5230 V43 * 1.13717 09109 000 8000 1.4743 V44 1.01327* 09109 000 6761 1.3505 09109 oi m at nh 024 z z k jm ht vb om l.c 6469 a Lu 1.3062 n n y te re ac th 83 va 1.18584 5982 ng hi ep V45 1.05310* 09109 000 7159 1.3903 V46 * 1.09292 09109 000 7557 1.4301 V53 96903* 09109 000 6318 1.3062 * The mean difference is significant at the 0.05 level w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re ac th 84

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