(Luận văn) the impacts of exports on economic growth, the case of selected southeast asia countries

t to UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS ng hi ep w n lo VIETNAM-NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR MASTER’S DEGREE IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va THE IMPACTS OF EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF SELECTED SOUTHEAST ASIA COUNTRIES ll fu oi m at nh A thesis presented by Ha Manh Cuong z z In partial fulfilment of the requirements for obtaining the degree of vb ht MASTER OF ARTS IN ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT k jm n a Lu Dr Le Cong Tru om l.c gm Academic Supervisor n va y te re HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2012 i t to ng CANDIDATE’S CERTIFICATION hi ep I hereby certify that the paper has not been submitted in whole or in part for any degree before w or has not been submitted at the time being to qualify for other degrees and any other n lo academic award; ad y th All the contents of the paper is the outcome of works that I has done; any paid or unpaid ju material are acknowledged; and ethics standards as well as guidelines have been tightly yi followed pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m z Name : Ha Manh Cuong at nh Signed : _ z vb Date : _ ht k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re ii t to ng ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS hi ep w n lo ad The thesis is a partial fulfilment of the requirements for obtaining the degree of Master of Arts y th in Economics of Development, which jointly conducted by Economics University of Ho Chi ju yi Minh City, Vietnam and the Institute of Social Studies in The Hague, Netherlands The thesis pl is fruit of knowledge I have gained and contributions from many other people ua al n First of all, I would like to show my deep thanks to my supervisor, Dr Le Cong Tru who gave va me his caring instruction during the time I focused on doing the thesis and I did also learn so n ll fu much from him the ways to write and prepare a research paper well m oi I am profoundly grateful to the teachers and the staffs of the Vietnam Netherlands Project in at nh Ho Chi Minh City who guided and helped me in the process of doing the thesis Besides, I would like to give my heartfelt thanks to Prof Nguyen Trong Hoai who taught me z z Econometrics and the ways to write a paper well ht vb jm Finally, I am very happy to express my profound gratitude to my parents who are always in k my back to silently encourage and support me at anytime I got difficult and discouraged in gm doing the thesis l.c om I bear full responsibilities for all errors, omissions, and shortcomings in the thesis a Lu Ha Manh Cuong n n va Ho Chi Minh City, 2012 y te re iii t to ng hi TABLE OF CONTENTS ep CHAPTER w PROBLEM STATEMENT n 1.1 1.2 lo 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1.4 STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH ad RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ju y th yi CHAPTER pl INTRODUCTION 2.2 CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS 2.3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK n ua al 2.1 va n CHAPTER 16 fu INTRODUCTION 16 3.2 EMPIRICAL MODEL 16 3.3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 17 3.4 DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES 18 3.5 SUMMARY OF THE STEPS USED IN THIS STUDY 19 ll 3.1 oi m at nh z z ht vb CHAPTER 21 INTRODUCTION 21 4.2 SELECTION REASON OF FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES 21 k jm 4.1 gm l.c 4.3 HIGHLIGHTS OF EXPORT ACTIVITIES AND SOURCES OF EXPORT GROWTH OF ASEAN-5 OVER THE LAST DECADES 22 Economic growth of Vietnam over the studied period 22 4.3.2 Export activity of Vietnam 24 om 4.3.1 4.3.5 Export activity of Malaysia 28 n Economic growth of Malaysia over the studied period: 26 va 4.3.4 n a Lu 4.3.3 Comparison of correlation between Vietnam’s export growth and economic growth 25 Economic growth of Thailand over the studied period 30 4.3.8 Export activity of Thailand 33 4.3.9 Comparison of correlation between Thailand’s export growth and economic iv y 4.3.7 te re 4.3.6 Comparison of correlation between Malaysia’s export growth and economic growth 28 growth 34 t to 4.3.10 Economic growth of Indonesia over the studied period: 36 ng hi 4.3.11 Export activity of Indonesia 39 ep 4.3.12 Comparison of correlation between Indonesia’s export growth and economic growth 39 w 4.3.13 Economic growth of Singapore over the studied period 41 n lo 4.3.14 Export activity of Singapore 43 ad SUMMARY 46 ju 4.4 y th 4.3.15 Comparison of correlation between Singapore’s export growth and economic growth 44 yi pl CHAPTER 48 INTRODUCTION 48 5.2 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS 48 n ua 5.2.1 Correlation Coefficient Matrix 48 5.2.2 Descriptive statistics result 50 n va fu REGRESSION RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 53 ll 5.3 al 5.1 m Result analysis for Indonesia 55 5.3.2 Result analysis for Malaysia 56 5.3.3 Result analysis for Singapore 56 5.3.4 Result analysis for Thailand 57 5.3.5 Result analysis for Vietnam 57 oi 5.3.1 at nh z z ht vb jm CHAPTER 59 CONCLUSION 59 6.2 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 61 gm 6.2.1 For The Selected Southeast Asia Countries 61 6.2.2 For The Case of Vietnam 62 om l.c LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS 64 APPENDIX A 68 n va APPENDIX B 69 n a Lu 6.3 k 6.1 v y APPENDIX D 72 te re APPENDIX C 70 t to ng LIST OF FIGURES hi ep Figure 3-1: Analysis framework for the impact of exports on growth 19 w Figure 3-2: Summary of steps used in data analysis 20 n lo Figure 4-1: GDP growth of Vietnam in the period of 1991 - 2010 23 ad Figure 4-2: Export growth of Vietnam in the period of 1991 - 2010 26 y th Figure 4-3: GDP growth of Malaysia in the period of 1991 - 2010 27 ju yi Figure 4-4: Export growth of Malaysia in the period of 1991 - 2010 29 pl Figure 4-5: GDP growth of Thailand in the period of 1991 - 2010 32 al ua Figure 4-6: Export growth of Thailand in the period of 1991 - 2010 36 n Figure 4-7: GDP growth of Indonesia in the period of 1991 - 2010 38 va n Figure 4-8: Export growth of Indonesia in the period of 1991 - 2010 40 ll fu Figure 4-9: GDP growth of Singapore in the period of 1991 - 2010 42 oi m Figure 4-10: Export growth of Singapore in the period of 1991 - 2010 45 at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re vi t to ng LIST OF TABLES hi ep Table 2-1: Summary of researches studying on impact of exports on growth 13 w Table 3-1: Summary of variables in the model 18 n lo Table 4-1: Vietnam exports by sector, 2010 25 ad Table 4-2: Malaysia exports by sector, 2010 29 y th Table 4-3: Thailand exports by sector, 2010 34 ju yi Table 4-4: Indonesia exports by sector, 2010 39 pl Table 4-5: Singapore exports by sector, 2010 44 al ua Table 5-1: Correlation matrix of variables (all countries) .49 n Table 5-2: Summary of Descriptive Statistics (All countries) 52 va n Table 5-3: Regression Results (Fixed Effects Method with Dependent Variable: GDP ll fu growth rate) 53 oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re vii t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th The Impacts of Exports on Economic Growth: The Case of Selected Southeast Asia Countries yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re t to ABSTRACT ng hi The thesis aims to answer the question that how is exports affect on the economic growth in ep the five selected Southeast Asia countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, w Thailand and Vietnam, during the period of 1991-2010 by using the neoclassical growth n lo model established by Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) In the period of 1991-2010, economic ad growth of the five Southeast Asia countries were growing very fast in tandem with the strong y th growth of exports This is because the economies of the five Southeast Asia countries largely ju relied on trade activities, especially exports, with developed countries such as USA, Japan, yi pl and European countries, etc… Therefore, determining and examining the impact of exports al ua on economic growth are important to help these countries keep their growth sustainable In n this paper, the augmented Solow Growth Model was adopted to find the impact of exports on va growth Also, the key model employed to run regression is Linear Exports-Growth Model n ll fu with a panel data of the five Southeast Asia countries To capture the different impact of oi m exports on growth over the selected countries, fixed effect regression model is chosen to apply nh in the paper The main findings of the paper point out that only Malaysia, Singapore and at Thailand of which exports have statistically significant positive impacts on economic growth z z at the levels of significance of 1%, 1% and 10%, respectively Oppositely, Indonesia and ht vb Vietnam showed a negative impact on economic growth, however, these impacts were not k jm statistically significant gm In addition, to measure and compare the different impacts of exports on growth over the l.c selected countries, the fixed effect regression model is employed The results showed that the om more developed the economy is, the stronger impact of exports on economic growth is More a Lu specifically, the impact levels of exports on growth at the five selected Southeast Asia countries are ascendingly arranged based on development of the economy as follows: n n va Vietnam (-0.029%), Indonesia (-0.016%), Thailand (0.151%), Malaysia (0.196%) and y te re Singapore (0.495%) t to ng hi ep w n lo Chapter ad y th ju INTRODUCTION yi pl n ua al PROBLEM STATEMENT n va 1.1 fu ll Economic growth is often the final goal of the economy To accelerate economic growth, it is m oi vital to know where sources of economic growth come from and this is subject of controversy at nh amongst economists One side, economists such as Solow (1957), Romer (1986), and Lucas (1988) reckoned that TFP laying residual brings about growth in long term Romer (1986) z z emphasized research and development while Lucas (1988) stressed on role of human capital vb ht formulation as significant cause of growth jm k Trade far ago was an effective way that human being used to exchange products they had and gm received other essential products that they were unable to produce to meet their daily life om l.c Trade at that time played a vital role as a blood vent in a human body and was the best way that human being had in daily life, production activities and social development Nowadays, a Lu the importance role of trade in modern society and economy is significantly increasing, n especially exports Exports have helped many countries reach impressive economic growths recently by a series of theoretical works of other well-known economists Misselden (1623) y of years ago such as: Adam Smith (1776) and David Ricardo (1817), and being connected te re From the origin of theories of reputable economists with classical school thoughts in hundreds n va and become very rich and powerful countries such as Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan, etc t to ng hi ep w n lo Chapter ad y th ju CONCLUSIONS, POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND LIMITATIONS yi pl n CONCLUSION ua al 6.1 n va ll fu This paper aims to examine the hypothesis if exports will increase economic growth and it m also makes clear how different will exports affect on economic growth over the selected oi Southeast Asia countries It complements the previous literature by focusing on exports and nh at by considering a more representative sample of variety of economies in Southeast Asia z z From the result of descriptive statistics and regression methods, this paper has examined and vb ht measured the impact of exports on economic growth using the Fixed Effects approach with a k jm pooled data set of the five Southeast Asia countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, gm Thailand and Vietnam l.c By using descriptive statistics and regression analysis method, the paper found out that om exports have unequal impacts on the five Southeast Asia countries’ economic growth More a Lu specifically, there are obviously two groups of countries that the impact of exports is n oppositely different: Group comprises of three countries: Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand va of which economies are more developed than the two remaining countries Group contains positively impacting on the development of these countries’ economies Besides, labor growth 59 y paper concludes that export growth and capital growth are two important factors on long term te re growth is statistically significant and has positive impact on these countries’ economies The n the two Indonesia and Vietnam of which economies are less developed In Group 1, export is also to have positive contribution on Singapore’s economic growth, but has no impact on t to Malaysia and Thailand ng hi ep This result is considered as quite reasonable with the current development of the three countries’ economies In that, Singapore with a very highly developed economy largely w depends on export activities of capital-intensive and high value added products Additionally, n lo Singapore’s economy shows that it is very sensitive to labor growth and labor growth brings a ad very good growth for its economy by 0.476% for each percent of growth in labor force This y th is thanks to Singapore’s good policy in training labor as well as attracting qualified labor that ju yi help it have high skilled labor and bring positive growth for the economy However, capital pl growth causes an unremarkable contribution to this economy This proves that Singapore’s al n ua economy is becoming less efficient in investing capital that has led to a wave of investing va capital to foreign countries because of higher efficiency Malaysia and Thailand have also n achieved a relatively developed economy by focusing on export-oriented policies and capital fu ll to invest in major industries for export, for example IT industry with Malaysia and automobile oi m industry with Thailand nh at In contrast, the result for Group shows that exports are both statistically insignificant and z bring negative sign In the two countries of this group, unexpectedly export growth has no z ht vb meaning in their economic growth In term of impact of other variables, capital growth of jm Indonesia has better contribution to economic growth than Vietnam More particularly, except k exports capital growth have statistical meaning and positive impact on Indonesia’s economic gm growth, especially the strong contribution of capital growth at 0.402% growth for percent l.c growth of capital This evidences that Indonesia is efficient in attracting and using capital for om economic development a Lu n The most special case is Vietnam with all variables bringing negative values and being y te re economic growth in all n va insignificant that show that capital, export and labor growth has no meaning in Vietnam’s 60 t to ng 6.2 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS hi ep 6.2.1 For The Selected Southeast Asia Countries w n The study result has pointed out that in the five studied countries; exports show its importance lo ad and positive impact of on economic growth at countries of which economies are more y th developed including Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand This is thanks to good policies and ju appropriate supports from these countries’ government for export industries They have yi pl specialized and focussed on key export industries that bring high value added products, for ua al example ship building, electronic goods, sea port services for Singapore, IT for Malaysia and n automobile making for Thailand They have selectively invested in high-tech production and va modern technologies At the same time, they have built up a good and perfect infrastructure to n ll fu support export industries They have also led their economies to be export-oriented for many oi m years ago Thus, to continue having good economic growth, these countries should continue promoting and supporting exports, continue purchasing policies to keep an export-oriented nh at economy They should keep their trade surplus achievements and always be the pioneer in z technology and technology innovation They also need subsidy policies for export enterprises z ht vb to find new markets, partners and expand market for export jm With the two remaining countries including Indonesia and Vietnam of which economies are k gm less developed than the above counties, exports have no meaning on economic growth and l.c exports not yet play obvious important role in these countries economies This is due to trade deficit, behind-time technology, weak competitive ability, inefficient and expansive om investment and low value-added products Therefore, a policy to encourage exports and lead a Lu the economy growing under export-oriented base is recommended This proper policy will n a result, export growth will have a positive impact on economic growth and will be a good economy grows 61 y increase its national resource accumulation to produce more goods and services and make the te re basement for an economy to grow For example, a country with an export surplus will help n va help increase international trade surplus, increase export value and national accumulation As 6.2.2 For The Case of Vietnam t to ng hi In particular, for the case of Vietnam, Vietnam’s economy is still developing and the export ep industry is quite weak Exports still have no impact on economic growth This is due to many w reasons: n lo ad Firstly, Vietnam export products mainly are mainly raw, agricultural products and natural y th resources; Vietnam also does not have high value-added or high-tech products Typically, ju Vietnam only exports raw products with low value added for example non-processed yi agricultural products and crude, non-refined oil This makes exports not bring high value pl ua al surplus to Vietnam’s economic growth Meanwhile, Vietnam imports processed agricultural products and refined oil from foreign countries with a very high cost As such, it is a bitter n n va fact that Vietnam is selling its natural resources with low price and buying those products back with high price As a result, it will lead to trade deficit and make Vietnam exports have ll fu no positive impact on growth oi m nh Secondly, technique and technology of Vietnamese export enterprises are weak, old and at mostly are backward technologies This leads to low value of export product and low z z comparative ability of Vietnam export enterprises vb ht One more reason is that Vietnam lacks of key products with its own well-known brand-name jm and high-tech products for export Typically, in garment and IT industries, Vietnam has no its k gm own well-known brand-names for export and almost focuses on processing products for other l.c countries to be paid a very low processing cost While processed products from Vietnam will om be brought brand-names of other countries and sold at a very high price of which gainers are n a Lu other countries Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, it should have economic policies focusing on the n va Therefore, in order to help make Vietnam become a country with a developed economy as te re following determinants: y Policies to lead the economy becoming an export-oriented economy are very necessary for Vietnam Encourage and promote exports should be made with products and industries that have high comparative advantage for export Besides, it is an effective way to utilize all 62 resources for developing industries and fields bringing high value-added and high t to comparative advantage products for export ng hi ep Policies to limit and stop trade deficit by imposing high tax barriers to import products that Vietnam can produce or luxurious products This will benefit the economy trade surplus and w make exports positively contribute to economic growth n lo ad Policies should also have subsidies or supports to encourage export enterprises to find as ju y th many trading partners as possible, this will help expand and develop new markets yi In term of destination, policies should encourage to find new market out of traditional Asia pl al market to diversify "destination" and avoid or reduce locally risks because export is the most n ua important foreign exchange source in supporting import for domestic production The va government can this by providing domestic and international market information for n entrepreneurs to reduce problems of asymmetric information (this is considered as new failure fu ll of market that the government must play a considerable role in solving this problem (Stiglitz, m oi 2002) and stepping up commercial promotion nh at Besides, the government can support domestic entrepreneurs by building good soft and hard z z infrastructures to reduce costs and time to enter and exit market as well as costs and time of vb production At the same time, it is very necessary to build high-tech industry zones to ht k jm specialize in manufacturing products for export gm Technology innovation and improvement are very necessary to the economy to help l.c enterprises improve competiveness and product quality for export Building and supporting om processing industries will help to create more value-added for export products Avoiding and make economic growth more sustainable and balanced n a Lu minimizing to export rude goods with low value and non-processed natural resources will private investment are determinants for growth As a result, Vietnam should make investment environment better by infrastructure improvement, simplifying administrative bureaucracies and formations At the same time, Vietnam should have more preferential tax policies and 63 y internal sources is safer for economic growth than external debt Government expenditure and te re attract investment capital However, it is evidenced that capital from national saving and n va One more factor is capital, a very important factor for growth So, it is necessary for growth to subsidies to encourage domestic investment Controlling well and tightly investment capital is t to very vital to help using capital efficiently and avoid waste and loss of capital by corruption ng hi and bribe ep Finally, quality of labor force is very important Vietnam should have more supports for w training and enhance in both quantity and quality of labor force In addition, Government n lo should also have proper policies of vocational education and training focusing on key high ad technical and technological industries for exports This will help and benefit Vietnam to have y th a skilled and talented manpower to develop and get sustainable growth ju yi pl LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS n ua al 6.3 va There is a limitation that the paper have not obtained regarding the second objective: n comparison of the impact of exports on growth crosss the selected countries That is because fu ll both export growth and labor growth of Indonesia and Vietnam are insignificant and have no m oi statiscal meaning, therefore the measure impact of these countries met difficulty and the at nh comparison cross the selected countries are limited z Not enough data for Vietnam has made the study choose the panel data of five ASEAN z ht vb countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam in order to reach a jm more reliable outcome It is expected to conduct a study on impact of exports on economic k growth only for the case of Vietnam later At the same time, the causal relationship between gm exports and growth and thresholds effect between exports and growth are also recommended om l.c for the future studies n a Lu n va y te re 64 t to REFERENCES ng hi ep Aghion, D., and Howitt, P 1992 A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction Econometrica 60 (March) w n Al-Yousif, Y K 1999 On the Role of Exports in the Economic Growth of Malaysia: A lo ad Multivariate Analysis International Economic Journal, Vol 13, No y th Balassa, B 1978 Exports and economic growth: Further evidence Journal of Development ju Economics 10 yi pl Bald, R., E., Forslid, Rikard 1996 Trade liberalization and endogenous growth: A q-theory ua al approach NBER Working Paper n Barro, R 1991 Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries Quarterly Journal of n va Economics, 106, ll fu Begum, S., and Abul, F.M., Shamsuddin 1998 Exports and economic growth in Bangladesh oi m Journal of Development Studies, 35 Blanchard, O 1997 Macroeconomics New Jersey nh at Blomqvist, H., C 1997 Economic interdependence & development in East Asia z Cass, D 1965 Optimum Growth in an Aggregate Model of Capital Accumulation Review of z ht vb Economic Studies, 32 Chow, P., C.Y 1987 Causality between export growth and industrial development Journal of jm k Development Economics, 26, 50-65 gm Clarke, R a K., C 1992 Trade policy reform & economic performance in developing Weiss (eds) Industrial and trade policy reform in developing countries n Journal of Developing Areas, 27, 227-244 a Lu Dodaro, S 1993 Exports and Growth: A Reconsideration of causality The om l.c countries: Assessing the empirical evidence in R Adhikari, C Kirkpatrick and J n va Feder, G 1982 On exports and economic growth Journal of Development Economics, 12, and effects? NBER Working Paper Number 5732 Garnaut, R 1996 Open regionalism and trade liberalization Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian studies 65 y Frankel, J A., Romer, D., & Cyrus, T 1996 Trade and growth in East Asian countries: Cause te re 58-75 Gillis, M., Dwight H Perkins, Michael R., and Donald R Snodgrass 1996 Economics of t to development ng hi Graeme C., a L Y 2006 Macroeconomics ep Greenaway, D., and David S 1994 What does liberalization for exports and growth? 129(2), 150 -175 w n Grossman, G M., and Helpman, E 1991 Innovation and growth in the global economy lo ad Harrison, A 1996 Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing y th countries Journal of Development Economics, 48 ju Harrod, R 1939 An Essay in Dynamic Theory Economic Journal yi pl Jung, W S., Peyton J Marshall 1985 Exports, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries Economics, 18 n ua al Journal of Development n va Keyness, J M 1936 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money m 52 ll fu Knight, F H 1944 Diminishing Returns from Investment Journal of Political Economy 94, oi Koopmans, T C 1965 On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth The Econometric nh at Approach to Development Planning z Krueger, A 2000 Economic Considerations and Class Size Working Papers 826 z vb Lucas, R E 1988 On the mechanics of economic development Journal of Monetary ht Economics, 22, 10 - 43 k jm Mathus, T R 1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population Misselden, E 1623 The Centre of the circle of commerce l.c gm Michaely, M 1977 Exports & growth Journal of Development Economics, 4, 47 - 56 om Ram, R 1987 Exports & growth in developing countries: Evidence from time-series and n Ramsey, F 1928 A Mathematical Theory of Saving Economic Journal, 38 a Lu cross-section data Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36(l), 50 - 66 n va Rebelo, S 1991 Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth Journal of Political Ricardo, D 1817 On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation y te re Economy 94, 99, Richards, D G 2001 Exports as a determinant of long-run growth in Paraguay, 1966-96 Journal of Development Studies, 38, 126 -148 Rodriguez, R., and Rodrik, D 1999 Trade policy & economic growth: a Skeptic’s guide to 66 cross-national evidence NBER Working Paper No W7081 t to Romer, P 1990 Endogenous Technological Change Journal of Political Economy 94, 98 ng hi Romer, R M 1986 Increasing returns & long run growth Journal of Political Economy 94, 5, ep 1000 - 38 Ruiz-Napole, P 2001 Liberalization, exports & growth in Mexico 1978-94: A structural w n analysis International Review of Applied Economics, 15 lo ad Sachs, J D a L., F B 1993 Macroeconomics in the Global Economy y th Salvatore, D., and T Hatcher, 1991 Inward Oriented and Outward Oriented ju Trade Stratagies The Journal of Development Studies, 27, 7-25 yi pl Schumpeter, J A 1934 The Theory of Economic Development 27 n ua al Sheehey, E., J 1990 Exports & growth: A flaw framework Journal of Development Studies, ll fu 28 n va Sheehey, E., J 1992 Exports & growth: Additional evidence Journal of Development Studies, m Smith, A 1776 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations oi Solow, R M 1956 A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth Quarterly Journal of nh at Economics, 70, z Solow, R M 1957 Technical change and the aggregate production func- z vb tion Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320 ht Sprout, R., V.A and James, H Weaver 1993 Exports & economic growth in a simultaneous k jm equations model Journal of Developing Areas, 27, 287 - 308 gm Swan, T V 1956 Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation Economic Record, 32 Thirlwall, A P 1979 The balance of payments constrain as an explanation of international l.c om growth rate differences Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 128, 44 - 55 n Understanding the Performance of Nations a Lu Thirlwall, A P 2002 The Nature of Economic Growth: An Alternative Framework for y te re from Latin American The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, n va Van den Berg, H a S., J R 1994 Foreign trade & economic growth: Time-series evidence Young, A 1928 Increasing Returns and Economic Progress Economic Journal, 38 67 t to APPENDIX A ng hi ep Regression result (SUR method): Test the relationship between exports and economic growth with quadratic model w Dependent Variable: GGDP? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section SUR) Date: 07/11/12 Time: 16:50 Sample: 1991 2010 Included observations: 20 Cross-sections included: Total pool (balanced) observations: 100 Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix n lo ad ju y th yi Variable Coefficient t-Statistic Prob 1.316820 0.094184 0.055201 0.071594 0.078640 0.047283 0.063107 0.066299 0.056748 0.078854 0.036940 0.632606 0.371148 0.256417 0.553551 0.342986 0.621251 4.268501 2.249792 0.224036 1.579699 -0.909628 -0.258560 2.960681 8.724504 1.919088 -0.786222 0.277858 0.141281 1.855416 -1.007346 -0.580764 0.5362 0.0001 0.0272 0.8233 0.1181 0.3658 0.7966 0.0040 0.0000 0.0585 0.4341 0.7818 0.8880 0.0672 0.3168 0.5630 pl Std Error n ua va n ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb 0.818076 0.402025 0.124190 0.016040 0.124227 -0.043010 -0.016317 0.196289 0.495102 0.151327 -0.029043 0.175775 0.052436 0.475759 -0.557617 -0.199194 al -6.889097 -0.192361 -1.010218 -0.710870 8.802547 k jm l.c gm C _IDN GK_IDN _MYS GK_MYS _SGP GK_SGP _THA GK_THA _VNM GK_VNM _IDN EG_IDN _MYS EG_MYS _SGP EG_SGP _THA EG_THA _VNM EG_VNM _IDN GL_IDN _MYS GL_MYS _SGP GL_SGP _THA GL_THA _VNM GL_VNM Fixed Effects (Cross) _IDN C _MYS C _SGP C _THA C _VNM C Effects Specification om Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) 2.425154 2.724768 84.21006 1.719755 y te re Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Durbin-Watson stat n 0.615397 0.524054 1.025976 6.737199 0.000000 va R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) n a Lu Weighted Statistics Unweighted Statistics R-squared Sum squared resid 0.531458 793.8318 Mean dependent var Durbin-Watson stat 68 5.830533 1.700013 t to APPENDIX B ng hi ep Test Heteroscedasticity by White test approach w n lo ad Table B.1: Test Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Indonesia y th White Heteroskedasticity Test: 11.92146 16.92412 ju F-statistic Obs*R-squared yi Probability Probability 0.000124 0.009566 pl ua al Table B.2: Test Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Malaysia n 0.659149 4.665195 n Probability Probability 0.683629 0.587413 ll fu F-statistic Obs*R-squared va White Heteroskedasticity Test: oi m nh Table B.3: Test Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Singapore at White Heteroskedasticity Test: 1.439476 7.983465 z F-statistic Obs*R-squared z Probability Probability 0.272700 0.239317 ht vb jm k Table B.4: Test Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Thailand Probability Probability 0.356914 0.302461 om l.c 1.219603 7.203225 F-statistic Obs*R-squared gm White Heteroskedasticity Test: n a Lu Table B.5: Test Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Vietnam White Heteroskedasticity Test: Probability Probability 0.386354 0.325264 n 1.154526 6.952479 va F-statistic Obs*R-squared y te re 69 t to APPENDIX C ng hi ep Scatter Diagrams with the correlation among GDP Growth Rates and Exports w n lo ad 12 GGDP_IDN vs EG_IDN ju y th 36 32 yi 28 GGDP_MYS ua al GK_IDN pl 24 20 GGDP_MYS vs EG_MYS n va 16 -4 n 12 ll fu -10 -5 10 -20 -10 oi GGDP_IDN -8 m -15 10 20 30 EG_MYS at nh Figure C.1: Scatter diagram: Exports vs Growth of Indonesia z Figure C.2: Scatter diagram: Exports vs Growth of Malaysia z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 70 16 12 t to GGDP_SGP vs EG_SGP GGDP_THA vs EG_THA ng 12 hi w GGDP_THA GGDP_SGP ep n -4 lo ad -8 -10 y th -4 -5 -12 10 15 20 25 -20 -10 ju EG_SGP 10 20 yi EG_THA pl ua al Figure C.3: Scatter diagram: Exports vs Growth of Singapore n Figure C.4: Scatter diagram: Exports vs Growth of Singapore n va fu ll 10 m oi nh at z z vb GGDP_VNM ht jm k -20 -10 10 20 30 40 n a Lu Figure C.5: Scatter diagram: Exports vs Growth of Vietnam om l.c EG_VNM gm n va y te re 71 t to APPENDIX D ng hi ep Scatter diagrams with all variables in the model of the countries w n 36 lo pl 12 -10 -5 al -10 yi 16 10 GL_IDN 20 ju GK_IDN y th 24 -15 20 ad 28 EG_IDN 32 30 -20 -30 -40 10 -15 -10 -5 ua GGDP_IDN -15 10 -10 -5 10 GGDP_IDN GGDP_IDN n n va Figure D.1: Scatter diagrams with the variables in the model of Indonesia -12 -8 -4 -8 12 -4 12 -8 -4 jm GGDP_MYS GGDP_MYS ht vb -8 12 z -4 16 z 20 GL_MYS EG_MYS at GK_MYS 24 nh 12 32 28 oi 16 36 m 40 20 ll 24 fu 44 12 GGDP_MYS k 25 36 20 32 15 28 10 om 40 l.c gm Figure D.2: Scatter diagrams with the variables in the model of Malaysia a Lu 24 GL_SGP EG_SGP n GK_SGP va 20 16 -5 -4 16 -2 -4 GGDP_SGP 12 16 -4 12 GGDP_SGP Figure D.3: Scatter diagrams with the variables in the model of Singapore 72 16 y GGDP_SGP 12 te re -10 12 n -1 t to 40 ng EG_THA 2.5 15 2.0 10 1.5 1.0 0.5 28 w 24 n 20 0.0 -10 -0.5 -15 lo -15 -5 -10 -5 10 -1.0 -15 -10 -5 ad GGDP_THA 10 -15 -10 -5 GGDP_THA 10 GGDP_THA ju y th Figure D.4: Scatter diagrams with the variables in the model of Thailand yi 45 pl 40 ua 30 30 al 35 20 n 10 25 20 fu -10 15 n va GK_VNM 40 GL_VNM ep 32 EG_VNM hi GK_THA 36 20 GL_THA 44 ll 10 -1 10 oi GGDP_VNM m -20 10 10 GGDP_VNM GGDP_VNM nh at Figure D.5: Scatter diagrams with the variables in the model of Vietnam z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 73