(Luận văn) the impact of inflation on economic growth, evidence from a panel of selected asia countries

t to UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM ng INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS hi ep w VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS n lo ad ju y th yi THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM A PANEL OF SELECTED ASIA COUNTRIES pl n ua al n va ll fu A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of oi m MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS at nh z By z ht vb VU DOAN THANH TIEN k jm om n a Lu Dr LE CONG TRU l.c gm Academic Supervisor: n va y te re HO CHI MINH CITY, AUGUST 2012 i t to DECLARATION ng hi ep “I certify that the substance of this thesis has not already been submitted for any degree and have not been currently submitted for any other degree w n lo I certify that to the best of my knowledge and help received in preparing this thesis and all ad sources used have been acknowledged in this thesis.” ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re ii t to ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ng hi The first person I would like to send special thanks to is my supervisor - Dr Le Cong Tru I’m ep grateful not solely his help throughout the thesis process, but also enthusiasm and many lessons in an attempt to improve my knowledge and skills as well He is usually ready to w n assist me anytime, although he is bustling The professor often keeps track of my work and lo ad motivates me to finish the duty To gain the result today, I cannot miss out his contributions ju y th Thanks so much, Dr.Tru! yi Next, I’m happy to thank to Dr Hoai, Dr Ngai, and Dr Nam They tried their best to help me pl ua al select an appropriate topic for my thesis When I confront to issues, they supported to find the solution and give advice in hope that I might overcome the problems Besides, I also thank to n n va the other professors of VNP for lectures and precious materials fu ll At the same time, I also send thanks to VNP officials, especially Ms Hong They are very m oi nice in helping me when having troubles They inform exactly and quickly to students I enjoy at nh their enthusiasm Additionally, I also send thanks to Mr Quy - a librarian He is nice to his duty I’m always welcomed by him z z vb ht Last but not least, I cannot forget sending thanks to my family and friends I’m very grateful k jm them to take care of and encourage me while performing the thesis Not only they support gm for finance, but also for mental I always keep in mind devotion and sacrifice of all om l.c Thanks so much for everything!!! n a Lu n va y te re iii t to ng hi ep TABLE OF CONTENTS w n TABLE OF CONTENTS IV lo ad LIST OF FIGURES VII y th LIST OF TABLES VIII ju ABSTRACT yi CHAPTER pl al INTRODUCTION n ua 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT va 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS n 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER fu ll CHAPTER m oi LITERATURE REVIEW nh 2.1 THEORIES RELATED TO INFLATION AND GROWTH Classical Theory 2.1.2 Neo-Classical Theory 2.1.3 Endogenous Theory 10 2.1.4 Keynesian Theory 10 2.1.5 Neo-Keynesian Theory 11 2.1.6 Monetarist Theory 11 at 2.1.1 z z ht vb k jm gm l.c 2.2 GROWTH MODELS 12 The Basic Growth Model 13 2.2.2 Solow Model 13 2.2.3 Augmented Solow Model 14 om 2.2.1 2.3.3 Cost of Inflation 17 2.3.4 Control Variables 18 2.3.5 Threshold Concept 21 y Inflation 16 te re 2.3.2 n Growth Rate 15 va 2.3.1 n a Lu 2.3 VARIABLE DEFINITION 15 iv 2.4 EMPIRICAL STUDIES 21 t to ng hi ep 2.4.1 The Studies of 1960s-1980s .22 2.4.2 The Studies of 1990s 23 2.4.3 Recent Studies 26 CHAPTER 31 w n ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS OF STUDIED COUNTRIES 31 lo ad 3.1 Economic Outlook of Vietnam 32 y th 3.2 Economic Outlook of Philippines 34 ju 3.3 Economic Outlook of Malaysia 36 yi 3.4 Economic Outlook of Indonesia 39 pl 3.5 Economic Outlook of Thailand 42 al ua 3.6 Economic Outlook of China 44 n 3.7 Economic Outlook of India 46 va n CHAPTER 49 fu MODEL SPECIFICATION & RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 49 ll oi m 4.1 EMPIRICAL MODEL 49 nh 4.2 MODEL SPECIFICATION 50 Non-Linear Inflation-Growth Relationship .50 4.2.2 Testing Thresholds in the Inflation-Growth Relationship 51 at 4.2.1 z z ht vb 4.3 DATA 52 jm 4.4 RESEARCH METHODS 53 k CHAPTER 57 gm EMPIRICAL RESULTS 57 l.c 5.1 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS 57 China 57 5.1.2 India 60 5.1.3 Indonesia 62 5.1.4 Malaysia 64 5.1.5 Philippines 66 5.1.6 Thailand 68 5.1.7 Vietnam 70 om 5.1.1 y te re v n China 75 va 5.2.1 n a Lu 5.2 REGRESSION ANALYSIS 72 t to ng hi ep w India 75 5.2.3 Indonesia 76 5.2.4 Malaysia 76 5.2.5 Philippines 77 5.2.6 Thailand 78 5.2.7 Vietnam 78 n 5.2.2 lo ad 5.3 INFLATION THRESHOLD ANALYSIS 79 Threshold results of India 80 ju 5.3.2 Threshold Results of China 79 y th 5.3.1 Threshold results of Indonesia 81 5.3.4 Threshold Results of Malaysia 82 5.3.5 Threshold Results of Philippines 84 5.3.6 Threshold Results of Thailand 85 5.3.7 Threshold Results of Vietnam 86 yi 5.3.3 pl n ua al n va fu CHAPTER 89 ll oi m CONCLUSIONS, POLICY RECOMMENDATION, LIMITATIONS AND FUTHER STUDY 89 nh 6.1 CONCLUSIONS 89 at z 6.2 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 90 z vb 6.3 LIMITATIONS 92 ht 6.4 FURTHER STUDY 92 jm REFERENCES 93 k gm APPENDIX A 99 l.c APPENDIX B 101 APPENDIX C 107 om APPENDIX D 113 n a Lu n va y te re vi t to ng hi ep LIST OF FIGURES w n Figure 2-1: Analysis framework for the impact of inflation on growth and thresholds remained lo ad in the relationship 30 ju y th Figure 3-1 A comparison between inflation and growth rate of Vietnam from 1990-2010 33 Figure 3-2: A comparison of inflation-growth relationship of Philippines from 1990 to 2010 yi pl 35 ua al Figure 3-3 A comparison between inflation and growth rate of Malaysia in the period of years n 1990-2010 38 va Figure 3-4: A comparison between inflation and economic growth of Indonesia from n ll fu 1990-2010 41 oi m Figure 3-5: A benchmark between inflation and growth of Thailand in the years of 1990-2010 43 nh at Figure 3-6: A comparison between inflation and growth rate of China from 1990-2010 45 z Figure 3-7: A comparison between inflation and economic growth rates of India in the period z ht vb 1990-2010 47 k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re vii t to ng hi ep LIST OF TABLES w n lo Table 2-1 Summary of the papers with thresholds found in the inflation-growth correlation 27 ad y th Table 4-1 Summary variables used in the models 52 ju Table 5-1 Correlation matrix between variables (China) 58 yi Table 5-2: Summary Descriptive Statistics (China) 59 pl Table 5-3: Correlation matrix between variables (India) 60 al n ua Table 5-4: Summary Descriptive Statistics (India) 61 va Table 5-7: Correlation matrix between variables (Malaysia) 64 n Table 5-9: Correlation matrix between variables (Philippines) 66 fu ll Table 5-10: Summary Descriptive Statistics (Philippines) 67 m oi Table 5-11: Correlation matrix between variables (Thailand 68 at nh Table 5-13: Correlation matrix between variables (Vietnam) 70 Table 5-15 Regression Results with Fixed Effects Method 73 z z Table 5-16: Estimation Thresholds of China 80 vb ht Table 5-17: Estimation Thresholds of India 81 jm Table 5-18: Estimation Thresholds of Indonesia 82 k gm Table 5-19: Estimation Thresholds of Malaysia 83 l.c Table 5-20: Estimation Thresholds of Philippines 84 Table 5-21: Estimation Thresholds of Thailand 86 om Table 5-22: Estimation Thresholds of Vietnam 87 n a Lu n va y te re viii t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th The Impact of Inflation on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Selected Asia Countries yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re t to ng ABSTRACT hi ep The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether inflation significantly impacts on economic w n growth for the selected Asia countries The study relied on macroeconomic theories, the lo ad augmented Solow model, and empirical studies for seeking the key variables impacting y th growth Simultaneously the quadratic model is employed to find out the impacts of inflation ju on growth, using a panel data of seven Asian countries in the period of 1990-2010 The yi pl fixed-effect method was used for capturing the differences among the selected countries The ua al results show that only China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam have a negative effect of inflation n on growth, and among the countries, Thailand and Vietnam have statistically significant n va meaning at 1% and 5% Meanwhile the rest of countries comprising Indonesia, Malaysia and ll fu Philippines contain the positive effect of inflation on growth Except for Malaysia, Indonesia oi m and Philippines have statistically significant meaning at 5% nh at For estimating thresholds for the countries, the paper adopted several methods including z scatter diagrams, observing average inflation rates and the method of Khan and Senhadji The z vb outputs indicate that only India has the threshold at 7% and statistically significant meaning at ht 5% The rest of countries including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and jm k Vietnam also find out the levels of threshold in the relationship between inflation and gm economic growth are 6%, 12-13%, 4%, 10-13%, 4.2-4.5% and 8%; however, all are not statistically significant meaning om l.c n a Lu n va y te re t to Y_CH vs INF_CH^2 16 ng hi 14 ep 12 w Y_CH 10 n lo ad y th ju yi pl -5 10 15 20 25 al n ua INF_CH va n Figure B-5: Scatter diagram expressing the correlation between squared- inflation and growth China ll fu m oi Y_ID vs INF_ID^2 at nh 11 10 z z vb ht jm k Y_ID gm om l.c 4 10 12 14 n a Lu va INF_ID n y 105 te re Figure B-6: Scatter diagram expressing the correlation between squared- inflation and growth India t to Y_IN vs INF_IN^2 ng 12 hi ep w lo Y_IN n ad -4 y th ju -8 yi pl -12 10 60 50 40 30 20 n ua al -16 n va INF_IN ll fu m oi Figure B-7: Scatter diagram expressing the correlation between squared- inflation and growth Indonesia at nh z z ht vb k jm om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re 106 t to APPENDIX C ng hi ep w n The results of examining Heteroscedasticity by White test approach for each country lo ad ju y th yi pl Table C-1: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Thailand ua al n Table White Heteroskedasticity Test: Probability Probability 0.075400 0.266407 n 12.68475 16.81068 va F-statistic Obs*R-squared ll fu oi m at nh z Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/12 Time: 15:02 Sample: 1990 2008 Included observations: 17 Excluded observations: n va y te re 107 0.756877 1.513287 0.873017 1.608205 12.68475 0.075400 n Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) a Lu 0.988863 0.910906 0.451694 0.408055 7.579356 3.572253 om R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.2400 0.0306 0.7010 0.1926 0.1336 0.2101 0.2113 0.1712 0.2128 0.3054 0.3884 0.0697 0.0672 0.0818 0.0724 l.c -1.653732 5.587863 0.443074 1.935395 -2.454079 1.821691 -1.814453 -2.094794 1.805268 -1.365446 1.093212 -3.585999 -3.660101 -3.278473 3.511450 669.3722 0.159763 0.035461 1.470636 0.025422 2801.541 2666.464 19.65958 0.925283 0.445166 0.004879 0.090055 0.034131 0.285909 0.028945 gm -1106.962 0.892736 0.015712 2.846262 -0.062387 5103.543 -4838.174 -41.18276 1.670383 -0.607850 0.005334 -0.322935 -0.124924 -0.937344 0.101637 k C INF_TH INF_TH^2 INV_TH INV_TH^2 EMPL_TH EMPL_TH^2 GOV_TH GOV_TH^2 SCH_TH SCH_TH^2 TFP_TH TFP_TH^2 EX_TH EX_TH^2 Prob jm t-Statistic ht Std Error vb Coefficient z Variable t to ng hi ep Table C-2: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Philippines White Heteroskedasticity Test: w 0.222935 9.178033 n F-statistic Obs*R-squared lo Probability Probability 0.979072 0.819479 ad ju y th Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/12 Time: 15:18 Sample: 1990 2008 Included observations: 18 Excluded observations: yi pl ua al -0.090588 0.196375 -0.215185 -0.014339 -0.088921 -0.126590 0.122230 0.095626 -0.097433 0.113666 -0.118841 0.182594 0.321832 -0.065774 -0.502507 0.9335 0.8569 0.8434 0.9895 0.9347 0.9073 0.9104 0.9298 0.9285 0.9167 0.9129 0.8668 0.7687 0.9517 0.6499 oi m at nh z ht vb om l.c gm 0.364679 0.651984 2.878787 3.620763 0.222935 0.979072 k jm Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) z 0.509891 -1.777286 1.086543 3.541728 -10.90908 2.906578 8385.263 0.626957 0.035201 2.604817 0.060866 13.41877 0.084279 45545.25 59570.86 24.87968 1.098030 1.238332 0.159855 0.720372 0.076908 va R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Prob ll -759.6039 0.123119 -0.007575 -0.037351 -0.005412 -1.698678 0.010301 4355.317 -5804.171 2.827965 -0.130491 0.226112 0.051447 -0.047382 -0.038647 t-Statistic fu C INF_PH INF_PH^2 INV_PH INV_PH^2 SCH_PH SCH_PH^2 EMPL_PH EMPL_PH^2 GOV_PH GOV_PH^2 EX_PH EX_PH^2 TFP_PH TFP_PH^2 Std Error n Coefficient n Variable n a Lu n va y te re 108 t to Table C-3: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Malaysia ng hi White Heteroskedasticity Test: ep 4.431385 15.74619 F-statistic Obs*R-squared Probability Probability 0.357916 0.329119 w n Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/12 Time: 15:31 Sample: 1990 2008 Included observations: 16 Excluded observations: lo ad ju y th Std Error t-Statistic Prob 1052.606 -0.018331 -0.004319 0.043061 -0.000107 -0.558965 0.003274 -5727.242 7558.738 8.339727 -0.334643 -0.022832 0.005692 -0.024184 0.009137 394.3614 0.374507 0.044982 0.312770 0.005244 0.522908 0.003498 2214.507 2931.354 5.980264 0.242028 0.077944 0.003645 0.049908 0.009175 2.669141 -0.048947 -0.096017 0.137676 -0.020411 -1.068954 0.935829 -2.586238 2.578583 1.394542 -1.382663 -0.292932 1.561483 -0.484575 0.995879 0.2282 0.9689 0.9391 0.9129 0.9870 0.4788 0.5211 0.2349 0.2355 0.3960 0.3986 0.8186 0.3626 0.7127 0.5013 n ua al n ll fu oi m at nh z z vb Mean dependent var 0.162439 S.D dependent var 0.211088 Akaike info criterion -2.606380 Schwarz criterion -1.882078 F-statistic 4.431385 Prob(F-statistic) 0.357916 ht k jm om l.c gm 0.984137 0.762054 0.102968 0.010602 35.85104 2.742301 va R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Coefficient pl C INF_MA INF_MA^2 INV_MA INV_MA^2 SCH_MA SCH_MA^2 EMPL_MA EMPL_MA^2 GOV_MA GOV_MA^2 EX_MA EX_MA^2 TFP_MA TFP_MA^2 yi Variable a Lu n Table C-4: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Indonesia n va White Heteroskedasticity Test: Probability Probability Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/12 Time: 15:52 109 0.341281 0.312410 y 2.324731 16.01581 te re F-statistic Obs*R-squared t to Sample: 1990 2008 Included observations: 17 Excluded observations: ng hi ep w Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C INF_IN INF_IN^2 INV_IN INV_IN^2 GOV_IN GOV_IN^2 EMPL_IN EMPL_IN^2 SCH_IN SCH_IN^2 EX_IN EX_IN^2 TFP_IN TFP_IN^2 254.2346 -1.962018 0.108018 1.460292 -0.023692 12.30396 -0.843977 -1544.441 1847.124 0.395172 -0.003534 0.353916 -0.046557 -0.384118 0.091922 1000.408 1.514197 0.083816 1.791008 0.030192 10.09952 0.701936 4878.242 5662.429 0.555308 0.004653 0.625711 0.067871 0.626329 0.245173 0.254131 -1.295748 1.288757 0.815346 -0.784725 1.218272 -1.202357 -0.316598 0.326207 0.711627 -0.759452 0.565622 -0.685959 -0.613285 0.374928 0.8231 0.3244 0.3264 0.5005 0.5148 0.3473 0.3523 0.7815 0.7752 0.5505 0.5269 0.6286 0.5636 0.6021 0.7437 n Variable lo ad ju y th yi pl ua al va Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) n ll fu 0.942107 0.536852 0.342597 0.234745 12.27902 3.042164 n R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.395400 0.503412 0.320115 1.055304 2.324731 0.341281 oi m at nh z Table C-5: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of India z ht vb 15.00000 Probability 0.378155 k Obs*R-squared jm White Heteroskedasticity Test: gm om l.c Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/12 Time: 16:06 Sample: 1993 2008 Included observations: 15 Excluded observations: C INF_ID INF_ID^2 INV_ID INV_ID^2 EMPL_ID EMPL_ID^2 SCH_ID SCH_ID^2 GOV_ID -35390.59 80.49248 -5.058527 -0.867744 0.125830 241064.2 -313342.5 -412.0828 4.466731 -296.4661 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 110 y Prob te re t-Statistic n Std Error va Coefficient n a Lu Variable t to GOV_ID^2 EX_ID EX_ID^2 TFP_ID TFP_ID^2 ng hi 12.61879 -1.728005 -20.04616 -7.671974 0.224411 ep 1.000000 2.112694 1.22E-10 170.2143 R-squared S.D dependent var Sum squared resid Log likelihood NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA w Mean dependent var 0.885253 Akaike info criterion -20.69524 Schwarz criterion -19.98719 Durbin-Watson stat 3.004914 n lo ad y th ju Table C-6: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of China yi pl 844.3850 15.99865 Probability Probability 0.026967 0.313457 n va F-statistic Obs*R-squared n ua al White Heteroskedasticity Test: ll fu oi m at nh z Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/12 Time: 10:56 Sample: 1990 2008 Included observations: 16 Excluded observations: z n a Lu n va y te re 0.0884 0.0890 0.0892 0.0466 0.0389 0.2644 0.2028 0.4061 0.1392 0.3856 0.9793 0.0999 0.1113 0.0376 0.0139 om 7.155487 -7.106129 7.091353 -13.62617 16.32424 2.268205 -3.032961 -1.348964 4.499607 -1.443894 0.032524 -6.318981 5.659400 16.91393 -45.85239 l.c 620.1885 2199.069 1954.478 0.065356 0.002607 1.182910 0.040287 0.021476 0.000836 0.435729 0.005164 0.115868 0.001104 0.010228 0.000741 4437.751 -15626.87 13859.89 -0.890554 0.042557 2.683083 -0.122188 -0.028970 0.003763 -0.629147 0.000168 -0.732171 0.006251 0.172993 -0.033970 gm C EMPL_CH EMPL_CH^2 EX_CH EX_CH^2 GOV_CH GOV_CH^2 INF_CH INF_CH^2 INV_CH INV_CH^2 SCH_CH SCH_CH^2 TFP_CH TFP_CH^2 Prob k t-Statistic jm Std Error ht Coefficient vb Variable R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood 0.999915 0.998731 0.025408 0.000646 58.24059 Mean dependent var 0.418451 S.D dependent var 0.713316 Akaike info criterion -5.405073 Schwarz criterion -4.680771 F-statistic 844.3850 111 Durbin-Watson stat 3.897552 0.026967 Probability Probability 0.704401 0.474680 t to Prob(F-statistic) ng hi ep White Heteroskedasticity Test: 0.732514 13.66861 w F-statistic Obs*R-squared n lo ad ju y th Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 06/27/12 Time: 10:37 aSample: 1990 2008 Included observations: 19 yi pl ua al Coefficient C INF_VN INF_VN^2 INV_VN INV_VN^2 EMPL_VN EMPL_VN^2 GOV_VN GOV_VN^2 SCH_VN SCH_VN^2 EX_VN EX_VN^2 TFP_VN TFP_VN^2 77.89618 -0.048242 0.000236 -0.028595 0.000280 -119.2453 105.5372 -12.06031 0.815532 -0.023581 0.000727 -0.145208 -0.010101 -0.074753 0.065998 Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.548457 -0.463778 0.242565 -0.100644 0.047236 -0.231866 0.205350 -1.183828 1.222168 -0.656052 0.425556 -0.353397 -0.611429 -0.632276 1.646699 0.6126 0.6669 0.8203 0.9247 0.9646 0.8280 0.8473 0.3020 0.2887 0.5476 0.6923 0.7416 0.5740 0.5615 0.1750 n Variable va n ll fu oi m at nh z z ht vb k jm 142.0278 0.104019 0.000972 0.284121 0.005926 514.2844 513.9383 10.18756 0.667283 0.035943 0.001710 0.410892 0.016520 0.118228 0.040079 om n a Lu 0.318940 0.390339 1.210450 1.956059 0.732514 0.704401 l.c Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.719401 -0.262697 0.438623 0.769560 3.500728 2.977541 gm R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat n va y 112 te re Table C-7: The result tests Heteroscedastiscity with White test method of Vietnam t to APPENDIX D ng hi ep The scatter diagrams present the relationship between variables in the model of the countries w n 10 16.5 580 16.0 lo 584 ad 568 yi 564 10 12 14 16 13.0 10 12 14 16 fu oi 40 SCH_CH m 15 nh INV_CH 10 12 14 16 12 14 16 70 ll 42 80 n 20 38 at 36 Y_CH 44 10 Y_CH va 25 INF_CH n Y_CH 14.5 13.5 -2 ua 15.0 14.0 al 556 pl 560 GOV_CH ju EX_CH 572 15.5 y th EMPL_CH 576 60 50 40 z z -5 34 10 12 14 16 Y_CH 12 14 30 16 10 Y_CH ht Y_CH 10 vb jm 10 k gm l.c om TFP_CH -5 a Lu -10 10 12 14 16 n va Y_CH n y 113 te re Figure D-1: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of China ep TFP_ID hi 40 60 36 56 32 w INV_ID ng 64 SCH_ID t to 52 48 28 24 n 44 ad 10 11 20 Y_ID ju yi 12 10 11 13.6 13.2 GOV_ID 12.0 n 11.2 ua va 10.4 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 -3 -6 ll Y_ID -2 -5 fu -4 n -1 10.8 11.6 4 12.4 al Y_ID 12.8 pl 10 Y_ID y th 14 INF_ID EX_ID lo -2 10 11 Y_ID Y_ID oi m 43 nh 42 at z 40 z 39 vb EMPL_ID 41 ht 38 jm 37 36 k 10 11 gm Y_ID l.c om Figure D-2: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of India n a Lu n va y te re 114 t to 80 40 76 36 -8 64 60 56 -12 28 24 w 52 20 -16 n 48 -12 -8 ad 44 -16 12 -8 -4 yi 16 -16 12 ua 20 n 9.0 12 8.5 10 7.0 8 12 12 12 -12 -8 -4 ll Y_IN 5.0 -16 fu 4 6.0 n 0 6.5 5.5 -4 -4 va 10 -8 -8 7.5 al 30 -12 -12 Y_IN 8.0 pl 40 Y_IN ju 50 -16 -12 Y_IN y th 60 -4 GOV_IN lo -20 -16 INF_IN 32 INV_IN SCH_IN ep TFP_IN hi 68 -4 EX_IN ng 72 0 -2 -16 12 -12 -8 Y_IN -4 Y_IN oi m 45 nh z 43 z vb EMPL_IN at 44 -12 -8 -4 k jm 41 -16 ht 42 12 gm Y_IN l.c om Figure D-3: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of Indonesia n a Lu n va y te re 115 t to 75 45 40 SCH_MA ep TFP_MA hi 35 -4 -8 INV_MA ng 70 65 30 25 -12 60 w 20 -16 n -8 55 -4 ad 12 -4 Y_MA 12 -8 GOV_MA al ua 12 11 10 n 12 12 -5 -4 12 -8 -4 Y_MA ll Y_MA -8 fu 10 4 20 va 0 12 n -4 15 pl 25 13 yi -8 Y_MA 14 -4 Y_MA ju 15 -8 y th INF_MA EX_MA lo -20 Y_MA oi m 400 nh 395 385 z z 380 vb EMPL_MA at 390 375 ht jm 370 365 -4 12 k -8 gm Y_MA l.c om Figure D-4: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of Malaysia n a Lu n va y te re 116 84 26 82 24 ng 80 SCH_PH ep TFP_PH hi -2 22 78 INV_PH t to 76 18 74 w -4 20 16 72 n -1 70 ad Y_PH -1 yi ua al GOV_PH pl n 11 8 -10 -1 -12 -1 Y_PH ll Y_PH -4 -8 10 fu -6 n -2 12 va 4 13 -1 Y_PH 14 12 Y_PH ju 16 14 -1 y th 20 INF_PH EX_PH lo -6 Y_PH oi m 395 nh 390 380 z z 375 vb EMPL_PH at 385 370 ht jm 365 360 k -1 gm Y_PH l.c om Figure D-5: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of Philippines n a Lu n va y te re 117 t to ng 80 44 70 40 60 36 -5 INV_TH ep TFP_TH hi SCH_TH 50 32 40 28 30 24 -10 w n -8 -4 ad 20 -12 12 -4 20 -12 12 yi 12.5 20 12.0 15 GOV_TH 11.0 n 10.0 al ua -5 10.5 12 9.0 -12 -8 -4 ll fu Y_TH 12 12 -5 n va -4 10 9.5 -8 -4 Y_TH 11.5 pl -10 -12 -8 Y_TH ju INF_TH -8 Y_TH y th 10 EX_TH lo -15 -12 -10 -12 12 -8 -4 Y_TH Y_TH oi m 55 nh 54 at z 52 z 51 vb EMPL_TH 53 ht 50 -8 -4 k 48 -12 jm 49 12 gm Y_TH l.c om Figure D-6: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of Thailand n a Lu n va y te re 118 t to 30 44 40 20 36 10 SCH_VN ep TFP_VN hi -1 32 INV_VN ng -10 24 20 w -2 -20 16 n -3 -30 ad GOV_VN ua 8 -8 7.0 -14 va 6.0 10 -16 n 5.5 -18 ll fu Y_VN -10 -12 6.5 n 20 -6 30 -4 7.5 al 40 -2 8.0 pl 50 Y_VN 8.5 yi 60 Y_VN ju 70 Y_VN y th 80 12 EX_VN lo -4 INF_VN 28 Y_VN Y_VN oi m 58 nh 56 at z 52 z 50 vb EMPL_VN 54 ht 48 jm 46 44 k gm Y_VN l.c om Figure D-7: The scatter diagrams describe the correlation between the variables in the model of Vietnam n a Lu n va y te re 119