(Luận văn) from economic growth to sustainable development, lessons for vietnam

t to UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM ng INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS hi ep w n lo VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad ju y th yi pl ua al n FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FOR VIETNAM n va ll fu oi m at nh z z BY k jm ht vb NGUYEN THI HONG om l.c gm n a Lu MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS n va y te re th HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2012 t to ng hi ep UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS w n lo VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad ju y th yi pl al n ua FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FOR VIETNAM n va ll fu oi m nh at A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of z MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS z k jm om l.c gm NGUYEN THI HONG ht vb By n va ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DR NGUYEN TRONG HOAI n ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DR PHAM HOANG VAN a Lu Academic Supervisor: y te re th HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2012 t to DECLARATION ng hi ep I would like to declare that this thesis:" From economic growth to sustainable development: Lessons for Vietnam" is original I ensure that this paper has not been w n submitted anywhere for the award of any degree lo ad y th This thesis was completed with big support from my supervisors All source of data ju and information have been fully referenced yi n ua al MDE16 pl NGUYEN THI HONG n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th i t to ACKNOWLEGDEMENT ng hi ep I would like to express my greatest gratitude to respectful supervisors, Associate Professors – Dr PHAM HOANG VAN, Baylor University and Dr NGUYEN TRONG w n HOAI, Vice President of UEH They already helped and supported me many interesting lo courses, especially valuable advice, guidance and inspiration for me finish this study on time ad y th ju I also want to express my thanks to all Professor of the MDE Program during the past yi two years (2009-2011), my friends of MDE16, UEH administrative staff at Economic pl al Development Faculty, who supported many useful documents and materials I cannot forget n ua the support from my big family all the time I followed this program va n At last but not the least, I am so sorry and would like to share my condolences when fu ll Professor KAREL JANSEN - who had great contributions to the program - passed away oi m That was really a big loss for all of us at nh z Best regards z vb jm ht NGUYEN THI HONG MDE 16 k om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th ii t to ABSTRACT ng hi ep In the scenes of strong economic development all over the world during some decades ago, the new problems that are happening everywhere is the consequence of progress can be w n attract more concerns of economists That is the trade-off of economic achievements and the lo degradation of environment, the exploitation of natural resources, the global warming, the rise ad y th of sea level and so on The new concept about development - sustainable development - now ju becomes familiar It is a new economic approach to express the development which care not yi only economic growth but also reservation of the natural resources, the environmental pl n ua al pollution, the investment on education va From that point of view, by using data of 90 countries, the author hopes to find out the n relationship between sustainable development and other determinants such as GDP growth, fu ll export of natural resources and agricultural products, urban population growth, Human m oi Development Index, corruption impact and so on I strongly believe that the discovery of at nh these relationships can provide some valuable lessons for development progress for z developing countries and Vietnam z vb k jm ht Key words: sustainable development, economic growth, adjusted net savings om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th iii t to TABLE OF CONTENT ng DECLARATION i hi ep ACKNOWLEGDEMENT ii ABSTRACT iii w TABLE OF CONTENT iv n lo LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vi ad LIST OF TABLES vii y th ju LIST OF FIGURES, GRAPHS viii yi CHAPTER I pl INTRODUCTION al ua 1.1Research background n 1.2 Statement of problem va n 1.3 Research objectives fu ll 1.4 Research questions m oi 1.5Research methodology nh 1.6 Structure of thesis at CHAPTER II z z LITERATURE REVIEW FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT vb ht 2.1 Concepts of economic growth, economic development and sustainable development jm 2.2 Approaches of sustainable development k 2.3 Objectives and significance of sustainable development 10 gm 2.4 Indicators of sustainable development 11 om l.c 2.5 Linkage of various determinants of sustainable development 14 2.6 Benefits and drawbacks of adjusted net savings 15 a Lu 2.7 Empirical Models 16 n 2.8 Empirical studies relating to sustainable development 22 iv th 3.1 Econometric techniques 32 y RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 32 te re CHAPTER III 32 n va 2.10 Chapter remarks 30 t to 3.2 Data collection 35 ng 3.3 Data analysis 35 hi ep 3.4 Chapter remarks 36 CHAPTER IV 37 w RESEARCH RESULTS 37 n lo 4.1 Descriptive statistics 37 ad 4.2 Relationship between adjusted net saving and other factors 41 y th 4.3 Empirical analysis 44 ju yi 4.4 Chapter remarks 53 pl CHAPTER V 55 al ua SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM 55 n CHAPTER VI 58 va n CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 58 ll fu 6.1 Main findings 58 oi m 6.3 Limitations of thesis title 61 nh 6.4 Further research 61 at REFERENCES 62 z z APPENDIX k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th v t to LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ng hi Asian Development Bank IMF International Monetary Bank NGO Non Governmental Organization ep ADB w n Carbon Dioxide ad CPI lo CO2 Corruption Perception Index y th Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization GDP Gross Domestic Product GDPPC Gross Domestic Product per capita GNI Gross National Income HCMC Ho Chi Minh City HDI Human Development Index MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment OECD The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OLS Ordinary Least Squares TFP Total Factor Productivity TSLS Two Stage Least Squares UN The United Nations UNCED The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNDP The United Nations Development Program WB The World Bank WTO World Trade Organization WCED World Commission on Environment and Development ju ELF yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th vi t to LIST OF TABLES ng hi ep Table 2.1: Expectation the influence of determinants on adjusted net savings 22 Table 2.2: Summary of empirical studies relating to sustainable development 27 w Table 4.1: Descriptive statistics 39 n lo Table 4.2: Covariance and correlation 40 ad Table 4.3: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP growth rates by OLS 44 y th Table 4.4: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP growth rates by TSLS 46 ju yi Table 4.5: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP per capita by OLS 47 pl Table 4.6: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP per capita by TSLS 48 al ua Table 4.7: Regression adjusted net savings on Export of agricultural raw products 50 n Table 4.8: Regression adjusted net savings on Export of natural resources 51 va n Table 4.9: Regression adjusted net savings with GDP growth rates in developing countries ll fu 52 oi m Table 4.10: Summary results 54 at nh Table 5.1: Vietnam Data 55 z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th vii t to LIST OF FIGURES, GRAPHS ng hi ep Figure 2.1: Linkage of various determiants of sudtainable development……………….15 Graph 2.1: How to calculate adjusted net savings 12 w Graph 2.1: Conceptual framework 30 n lo Graph 4.1: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and GDP growths (1996-2010) 41 ad Graph 4.2: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and and GDPPC2010 42 y th Graph 4.3: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and export of agricultural raw products ju yi in period 1996-2010 42 pl Graph 4.4: Relationship between Adjusted net saving and and export of natural resources in al ua period 1996-2010 43 n Graph 4.5: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and GDP growth of developing va n countries in period 1996-2010 44 ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th viii t to the impact of this factor is very little in many cases but the good institution can bring more ng opportunities for achieving sustainable development It is very clear in developed countries hi ep where they have very high CPI index Fourth, export of natural resources will lower adjusted net saving though this activity w now is mainly income of many developing countries all over the world So the effective n lo measurement for controlling the activity of the export of natural resources need to apply ad quickly and urgently because many natural resources need a long time for renew or reproduce y th Developing countries can limit this activity by investment more for manufactured industries ju yi then export of high value-added products by advanced technologies It will replace step by pl step the exploitation of natural resources for export raw materials al ua Last, the age dependency ratio is a burden of society because they are not non working n people, they not contribute for economic growth High rate of this factor also causes many va n social problems such as high expenditure for control crime, health care, education and so on ll fu For decrease of this ratio by creating jobs, extension working age as developed countries have oi m done is a lesson for developing countries nh 6.2.2 For Vietnam context at In Vietnam context, beside general suggested policies above, some extra valuable z z lessons can be considered as follows: ht vb Maintain economic growth rate with inflation rates under the acceptable control level jm by flexible fiscal and monetary policies Lessons can be structural trasformation from k agricultural economy to service or industrial economy as Hongkong, Singapore, Taiwan In gm these countries, economic development came from shifting massively into service sectors by om l.c developing new fields like insurance, finance, away from manufacturing Supporting and developing industrial and manufacturing sectors, step by step decreasing the export of natural Government by some industrial policies like many industrial countries in Asia For example, n y te re substitution program in industry and second stage is import- substitution in the industrial va in case of Taiwan, there are two stages for economic development, first stage is import- n a Lu resources and raw agricultural products That requires strongly consideration from th 60 t to upgrading In case of Korea, economic development is facilitated by the formation of Heavy ng Chemical Industry Drive and General Trading Comapny 24 hi Increasing practical and valuable programs for limit the exploitations of natural ep resources and air polluted emissions are necessary All activities relate to this programs will w be plant new forest, reservation of biological systems, recycle and re-use more materials n lo which come from natural resources Increasing the control measurements for air emission, ad waste water pollution from domestic manufacturers in industrial zones; limit the y th uncontrollable of dangerous pollutants for environment, prevent the import of industrial ju pl import raw materials yi pollutants from developed countries by applying international standards about the export and al ua Of course, a high rate of adjusted net savings are always good sign for sustainable n development in Vietnam some years ago However, considering these trade-off problems va n between economic benefits and other activities as depletion of natural resources or ll fu environmental pollution are very important for policy makers All above solutions will be oi m successful or not require the capacity of Government in the efficient governance by reducing nh corruption, stable financial system, policies for facilitating industrialization Success in these at areas management can be help to improve sustainable development for Vietnam z z 6.3 Limitations of thesis title ht vb This paper uses adjusted net savings for evaluating sustainable development so the limit of jm measure this indicator will limit the value of this thesis The number of countries in this paper k is limited within 90, some other effect such as trade, FDI are not account for gm 6.4 Further research om l.c From this paper, many problems open for a new series of studies in future This paper does not mention the impact of economic growth on strong sustainability, the relationship between growth- society development We can explore the effect of FDI on sustainability, the trade n a Lu weak and strong sustainability, the relationship between sustainable development-economic va n balance, the unemployment, inflation y te re Henry Y Wan Jr., Economic Development in a Globalized Environment, Springer, 2005 61 th 24 t to REFERENCES ng hi ep Adrian Boos (2011) “The theoretical relationship between the Resource Curve Hypothesis and Genuine savings”, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, w University of Bonn, n lo Alam S., Fatina A., Butt M S (2007), “Sustainable development in Pakistan in the ad context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation.” Journal of y th ju Asian Economics 18, 825-837 yi Atkinson G., Hamilton K (2003), “Saving, Growth and the Resource Curse pl Hypothesis.” World Development 31: 1793–1807 al ua Barro, Robert (1991) “ Economic growth in a cross section of countries”, The n Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, no 2: 407–43 va n Clarke M., M.N Islam S (2005), “Diminishing and negative welfare returns of fu ll economic growth: An index of sustainable economic welfare ISEW for Thailand.” oi m Ecological Economics 54, 81-93 nh Cook, Christopher ( 2005) Population growth and savings rates: Some new cross at country estimates International Review of Applied Economics 19, no 3: 301–319 z z Daly H E (1991), “Operational Principles for sustainable development” vb ht Daly H E., Cobb J (1999), “For the common good.” Beacon Press, Boston, MA jm Daniel D Morana, Mathis Wackernagela, Justin A Kitzesa, Steven H Goldfingera, k Aurélien Boutaudc (2008), “Measuring sustainable development: Nation by nation.” gm Ecological Economics 64: 470-474 genuine saving”, Environment and Development Economics 12:33-53 om l.c 10 Dietz S., Neumayer E., Soysa I D (2007), “Corruption, the resource curse and a Lu 11 Dimitrios Asteriou and Stephen G Hall, Applied Econometrics a modern approach, th 62 y Press, 2006 te re 13 E Wayne Nafziger, Economic Development, fourth edition, Cambrigde University n ed., Norton 2006 va 12 Dwight Perkins, Steven Radelet and David Lindauer, The Economic Development , 6th n revised edition, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007 t to 14 Gallup J L., Sachs J and Mellinger A.D (1998), “Geography and Economic Growth” ng 15 Grace T R Lin, Hope C (2004), “Genuine savings measurement and its application hi to the United Kingdom and Taiwan”, The Developing Economies XVII-1: 3−41 ep 16 Hamilton C (1999), “The genuine progress indicator: methodological developments w and results from Australia.” Ecological Economics 30: 13–28 n lo 17 Hamilton K and Clement M (1999), “Genuine saving rate in developing countries.” ad The World Bank Economic Review 13:333-356 y th 18 Harris M J (2000), “Basic principles of sustainable development.” Global ju yi Development and Environment Institute, Working paper 00-04 pl 19 Harris M J., Wise T A., P Gall K and R Goodwin N., (2001) “A survey of al ua sustainable development: Social and Economic Dimensions”, Washington: The n Global Development and Environment Institute Tufts University, Island Press.nn va n 20 Henry Y Wan Jr., Economic Development in a Globalized Environment, Springer, ll fu 2005 oi m 21 http://weber.ucsustainable development.edu\~proeder\elf.htm nh 22 http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators at 23 http://undp.org/en/statistics/hdi z z 24 http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/20010 jm sustainability”, Ecological Economics 55 (2005) 599-609 ht vb 25 J.Ram Pillarisetti (2005) “Analysis The World Bank ‘s “genuine saving” measure and k 26 Jong Il Kim and Laurence Lau (1994) "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East gm Asian Newly Industrial Countries", Journal of the Japanese and International om l.c Economies, Vol 8, pp 235-71 27 Lawn P A (2003),“A theoretical foundation to support the Index of Sustainable y te re and environmental sustainability.” n 29 Lee H H., Chung R K., Koo C M (2005), “On the relationship of economic growth va 28 Le Le S (1991), “Sustainable Development: a Critical review.” n indexes.” Ecological Economics 44: 105-118 a Lu Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) and other related Review 59, no 5: 886–96 63 th 30 Leff, Nathaniel (1969) “Dependency rates and savings rates”, American Economic t to 31 Liz Tucker (2008) “Theory survey of Sustainable Development” ng 32 Moe T (2003), “The Norwegian model for sustainable development: A policy oriented hi capital framework for measurement and policies.” ep 33 OECD, 2001, Sustainable Development: Critical issues w 34 Paolo Mauro (1995) “Corruption and Growth”, The Quarterly Journal Economics Vol n lo 110: 681-713, MIT Press ad 35 Partha Dasgupta (2007) “Measuring Sustainable Development: Theory and y th Application”, Asian Development Review, vol 24, no 1, pp1-10 ju pl yi 36 Paul Krugman (1994) "The Myth of Asia's Micrale", Foreign Affairs, Volume 73, no al ua 37 Paul M Romer (1994)” The Origins of Endogenous Growth, The Journal of Economic n Perspectives, Vol 8, No 1, pp 3-22 va n 38 Pearce D., Atkinson G., Hamilton K., Dubourg R., Young C and Munasinghe M ll fu (1997), Measuring Sustainable Development: Macroeconomics and the Environment, oi m Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., United Kingdom nh 39 Peter Hess (2010) “Determinants of the adjusted net saving rate in developing at economies”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol 24, No 5, September z z 2010, 591–608 jm paper Number ht vb 40 Pezzey J (1992), “Sustainable Development concepts.” World Bank Environment k 41 Pham Hoang Van, Henry Wan, Jr (1997), "Interpreting East Asian Growth" in gm Dynamics, Economic Growth and International Trade”, Bjarne Jensen and Kar-yiu om l.c Wong (eds.), University of Michigan Press, pp.265-86 42 Philip G Roeder (2001) "Ethno linguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and th 46 The United Nations, 2008, “Measuring Sustainable Development” 64 y Sustainable Development in Vietnam te re 45 The Minister of Planning and Investment, 2004, The Strategic Orientation for n Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol 39 va 44 Robert Solow (1957) "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function", n 43 Robert et al., (2004) “ Viewpoint: Weak versus strong sustainability” a Lu 1985." February t to 47 The United Nations, Earth Summit Agenda 21, Program of Action from Rio, 1992 ng 48 The United Nations, Johannesburg Summit 2002, Taking Actions for Earth Future, hi 2002 ep 49 The United Nations, Report of World Commission on Environment and Development: w Our Common Future, 1987 n lo 50 Tran Vo Hung Son, Chau Van Thanh (1998)” Analysis of the sources of economic ad growth of Vietnam”, Centre for ASEAN Studies y th 51 UNDP, 2010, Human Development Report 2010, United Nations Development ju yi Program pl 52 Yacouba Gnègnè (2009), Adjusted net saving and welfare change, Ecological al n ua Economics 68 (2009), 1127-1139 n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va APPENDIX th 65 y te re CALCULATING ADJUSTED NET SAVING ITEM (WORLD BANK) t to Gross national saving (GNS): Difference between GNI and public and private ng consumption plus net current transfers hi ep Depreciation: Replacement value of capital used up in the process of production Net national saving (NNS): Difference between gross national saving and the w consumption of fixed capital n lo Education expenditure: Public current operating expenditures in education, ad including wages and salaries and excluding capital investments in buildings and y th equipment ju yi Energy depletion (ED): Ratio of present value (PV) of rents, discounted at 4%, to pl exhaustion time of the resource Rent is calculated as the product of unit resource rents al n natural gas ua and the physical quantities of energy resources extracted It covers coal, crude oil, and va n Mineral depletion (MD): Ratio of present value of rents, discounted at 4%, to ll fu exhaustion time of the resource Rent is calculated as the product of unit resource rents oi m and the physical quantities of mineral extracted It covers tin, gold, lead, zinc, iron, nh copper, nickel, silver, bauxite, and phosphate at Net forest depletion (NFD): Product of unit resource rents and the excess of round z z wood harvest over natural growth jm ton of carbon emitted was taken from Fankhauser (1994) ht vb CO2 damages (CO2D): A conservative figure of $20 marginal global damages per k PM damages (PMD): Willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid mortality and morbidity gm attributable to particulate emissions om l.c 10 Adjusted net saving (ANS): Net national saving plus education expenditure and minus energy depletion, mineral depletion, net forest depletion, carbon dioxide n a Lu damage, and particulate emissions damage y th 66 te re (ANS1996+ANS1997+…+ANS 2009)/ number of year (1996-2010) n a ANS =Average adjusted net saving rate for 1996-2010, % of GNI= va CALCULATING VARIABLES IN MODELS t to b HDI =Human Development Index for 2010, score from 0- 1, higher index means ng higher human development hi ep c GDPGR =average growth rate of real GDP for 1996-2010, annual % growth= (GDPgrowth1996+GDP growth1997+ + GDP growth 2009) i/number of year (1996- w 2010) n lo d GDPPC2010 = GDP in 2010, $US ad e AGE= Average age dependency ratio for 1996 and 2010, % of working-age y th f CPI = corruption perception index for 2010, score from 0- 10, higher score means ju yi more perception about corruption pl g MS = average money and quasi money growth for 1996-2010, % of al n 2010) ua GDP=(MS/GDP1996+MS/GDP1997+….+MS/GDP2010)/ number of year (1996- va n h XR = share of fuels, ores, and metals in merchandise exports for 1996-2010, % of ll fu merchandise export==[(export of fuel + ore + metal) 1996+(export of fuel + ore + oi m metal) 1997+….+(export of fuel + ore + metal) 2010]/ number of year (1996-2010)] nh i AGRI= agricultural raw material exports for 1996-2010, % of merchandise exports at j ONM= ores and metals exports, % merchandise exports z z k UBGR=average urban population growth for 1996-2010, annual % k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th 67 t to DATA OF COUNTRIES GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 Argentina 5.20 4.00 10,749.00 58.67 1.80 16.53 27.20 3.20 1.13 0.775 2.9 0.288 Armenia 1.27 7.20 1,327.00 53.00 2.85 30.62 14.73 27.15 (0.53) 0.695 2.6 0.128 Australia 6.67 3.47 25,249.00 48.93 4.53 44.33 76.00 20.67 1.53 0.937 8.7 0.437 Austria 2.13 26,694.00 47.93 2.27 5.47 164.45 3.00 0.67 0.851 7.9 0.153 Bangladesh 18.73 5.53 558.00 66.00 1.73 0.36 44.13 3.33 0.469 2.4 0.043 Belarus 15.53 ju 2,740.00 45.07 2.77 26.62 16.67 0.92 0.732 2.5 0.374 Belgium 13.78 1.93 51.73 1.08 9.17 123.18 3.08 0.40 0.867 7.1 0.589 Benin 2.64 4.60 92.00 69.64 0.98 27.60 0.18 4.00 0.435 2.8 0.525 Bolivia 0.53 3.67 1,233.00 75.40 3.40 55.20 52.47 25.13 2.67 0.643 2.8 0.740 10 Botswana 31.13 5.33 4,190.00 12.82 32.93 12.82 3.27 0.633 5.8 0.399 11 Brazil 5.67 3.07 4,717.00 52.53 15.47 47.93 10.47 1.80 0.699 3.7 0.576 12 Bulgaria 2.07 2.87 2,555.00 46.27 2.20 23.00 46.80 13.07 (0.20) 0.743 3.6 0.225 13 Burkina Faso 1.57 6.33 283.00 93.93 65.79 0.71 21.13 0.21 5.00 0.305 3.1 0.712 14 Cambodia 6.46 7.87 558.00 73.47 1.91 at 18.40 0.36 4.67 0.494 2.1 0.238 15 Cameroon 1.75 3.73 714.00 84.07 15.46 55.00 15.53 4.77 4.00 0.46 2.2 0.879 16 Canada 10.07 2.67 25,575.00 45.33 5.60 23.13 5.93 1.13 0.888 8.9 0.769 17 Chile 5.13 3.87 6,430.00 51.20 7.73 52.13 66.27 jm 1.47 0.783 7.2 0.515 18 China 30.93 9.80 2,426.00 44.47 0.73 4.47 135.00 1.87 3.20 0.663 3.5 0.131 19 Colombia 2.60 3.27 3,233.00 57.67 4.93 41.60 29.93 1.33 gm NATION 2.00 0.689 3.5 0.596 20 Costa Rica 13.80 4.60 5,227.00 54.47 3.27 1.80 36.33 1.13 3.00 0.725 5.3 0.458 21 Cote d'Ivoire 4.79 1.87 588.00 82.27 9.80 21.13 25.07 0.07 3.13 0.397 2.2 0.896 22 8.40 3.13 15,328.00 46.20 1.13 9.53 179.93 7.47 1.93 0.81 6.3 0.329 23 Cyprus Czech Republic 8.27 3.00 7,803.00 42.33 1.80 5.40 60.87 2.07 0.20 0.841 4.6 24 Denmark 13.20 1.27 30,529.00 50.73 2.80 8.07 65.60 1.27 0.53 0.866 9.3 0.061 25 Ecuador 2.07 3.40 1,728.00 62.73 4.67 46.20 24.13 0.27 2.53 0.695 2.5 0.657 26 El Salvador 4.00 2.27 2,556.00 73.73 0.53 4.40 46.20 1.53 1.40 0.659 3.6 0.159 27 Estonia 13.33 4.80 5,980.00 48.73 7.27 11.27 38.67 3.13 (0.40) 0.812 6.5 0.528 hi ANS ad ng No ep w n lo 14.47 y th yi 7.00 pl 24,518.00 al n ua 377.00 va - n 65.73 ll fu 4.13 oi m nh 0.36 - - z z vb ht 113.92 51.20 k om l.c n a Lu n va 0.107 y te re th 68 NATION ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 28 Ethiopia 5.40 7.27 221.00 91.33 15.86 1.40 35.69 1.29 4.00 0.328 2.7 0.766 15.40 2.80 27,114.00 49.87 5.80 7.73 74.60 3.60 0.67 0.871 9.2 0.129 France 12.00 1.67 22,758.00 53.73 1.00 5.47 118.36 2.20 1.00 0.872 6.8 0.318 31 Gambia, The 8.40 4.40 704.00 90.53 3.60 3.16 26.93 3.07 4.67 0.39 3.2 0.716 32 Germany 10.87 1.40 25,306.00 48.73 1.00 4.07 177.27 2.40 0.885 7.9 0.111 33 Ghana ad 5.33 360.00 78.00 9.46 12.69 24.13 8.92 4.00 0.467 4.1 0.874 34 Greece 2.36 13,578.00 48.07 3.00 17.60 93.78 7.93 0.93 0.855 3.5 0.085 35 Guinea (4.60) 550.00 89.33 1.75 71.08 11.20 70.75 3.00 0.34 0.784 36 Honduras 18.33 3.87 81.00 3.54 7.08 44.40 6.15 3.00 0.604 2.4 0.120 37 Hungary 6.07 2.33 ua 46.07 1.07 4.40 48.73 2.13 0.805 4.7 0.013 38 Iceland 5.73 3.07 33,884.00 52.00 1.00 23.07 60.93 22.53 1.20 0.869 8.5 0.033 39 India 17.80 7.00 795.00 61.07 1.53 12.67 56.67 4.73 2.27 0.519 3.3 0.878 40 Indonesia 11.80 3.93 1,145.00 52.93 5.13 32.67 43.93 6.87 3.93 0.6 2.8 0.757 41 Ireland 19.13 2.50 27,599.00 48.53 1.00 145.47 0.60 1.87 0.895 0.029 42 Italy 9.33 0.93 18,943.00 49.60 1.00 3.93 88.67 1.33 0.53 0.854 3.9 0.114 43 Japan 10.27 0.73 39,972.00 49.47 0.80 at 215.33 1.73 0.884 7.8 0.014 44 Jordan 13.40 5.13 2,579.00 72.53 0.07 16.67 45 Kazakhstan (10.73) 6.47 2,482.00 50.07 1.29 73.64 46 Korea, Rep 21.87 4.20 16,219.00 39.40 1.00 6.73 60.47 47 Kuwait 9.00 4.27 23,115.00 40.47 91.23 70.40 48 Latvia 3.87 4.67 5,011.00 47.93 19.80 7.07 32.67 3.80 gm 49 Lebanon (5.11) 3.93 6,746.00 55.27 1.86 9.93 190.27 9.86 1.60 50 Lithuania 4.20 4.53 5,333.00 48.73 3.80 22.13 30.33 1.80 (0.67) 51 19.67 3.93 52,306.00 48.33 1.08 6.08 598.20 5.50 52 Luxembourg Macedonia, FYR 3.27 2.60 2,220.00 45.87 1.69 10.15 30.00 53 Malaysia 20.47 4.73 5,185.00 58.33 2.67 12.60 54 Mali 4.50 5.47 273.00 98.40 69.93 55 Mauritius 14.47 4.60 5,181.00 45.47 56 Mexico 12.33 3.07 6,105.00 60.53 t to No ng hi 29 ep 30 Finland w n lo 7.60 y th 2.47 ju yi 5.67 pl 1,392.00 al 5,634.00 n n va ll fu m oi 0.40 nh z 2.47 z 113.33 - - 2.20 0.681 4.7 0.455 16.86 0.60 0.714 2.9 0.692 1.00 0.877 5.4 0.003 3.47 0.771 4.5 0.788 (0.73) 0.769 4.3 0.61 2.5 0.356 0.783 0.353 1.40 0.852 8.5 0.426 6.46 1.00 0.701 4.1 125.07 1.27 3.93 0.744 4.4 0.687 1.79 25.27 0.21 5.00 0.309 2.7 0.833 0.53 0.27 85.73 0.27 1.00 0.701 5.4 0.489 0.67 13.73 27.60 1.93 2.00 0.75 3.1 0.219 vb 16.29 jm ht 21.27 1.60 k - - om l.c n a Lu n va y te re th 69 0.511 NATION ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 57 Morocco 22.13 4.80 1,844.00 58.53 2.00 12.20 80.80 10.00 2.00 0.567 3.4 0.399 (0.60) 7.67 384.00 89.73 6.00 51.93 25.53 38.57 5.20 0.284 2.7 0.698 Namibia 22.93 4.20 2,696.00 74.87 0.89 18.67 40.33 18.00 3.67 0.606 4.4 0.722 60 Netherlands 14.47 2.20 26,553.00 47.80 3.13 9.60 157.46 2.13 1.47 0.89 8.8 0.345 61 New Zealand 9.14 2.53 14,880.00 51.47 12.33 7.60 81.67 4.40 1.27 0.907 9.3 0.421 62 Nicaragua ad 3.67 907.00 75.53 2.33 2.27 36.27 1.13 2.00 0.565 2.5 0.390 63 Niger 0.60 179.00 103.40 2.60 58.13 12.13 56.87 4.00 0.261 2.6 0.682 64 Peru 6.93 3,181.00 61.53 2.13 54.07 30.93 45.60 1.40 0.723 3.5 0.510 65 Philippines 15.87 4.40 69.47 0.93 4.53 55.67 2.87 3.40 0.638 2.4 0.859 66 Poland 8.40 4.40 ua 44.13 1.40 9.53 41.13 4.67 (0.07) 0.795 5.3 0.035 67 Portugal 4.47 1.80 11,748.00 48.40 2.53 5.47 124.36 2.33 1.67 0.795 0.007 68 6.53 2.53 2,637.00 45.07 3.07 11.67 28.87 4.60 (0.13) 0.767 3.7 0.208 69 Romania Russian Federation 2.20 3.73 2,927.00 42.53 2.93 62.13 27.60 8.60 (0.27) 0.565 2.1 0.333 70 Rwanda 4.71 8.47 337.00 88.07 28.29 15.60 28.29 9.87 0.385 0.26 71 Senegal 6.36 4.20 562.00 89.93 3.53 24.80 28.00 6.20 3.00 0.411 2.9 0.791 72 Singapore 33.47 5.87 32,641.00 39.13 0.27 at 108.47 1.20 2.40 0.846 9.3 0.398 73 Slovenia 13.33 3.33 12,732.00 42.87 1.53 5.80 0.828 6.4 0.179 74 Spain 11.07 2.73 15,458.00 46.13 1.00 5.93 75 Sri Lanka 18.27 5.13 1,309.00 49.20 2.45 1.82 76 Sudan (5.93) 6.27 524.00 81.93 10.23 77 Sweden 18.13 2.47 32,507.00 54.33 78 Switzerland 18.47 1.93 37,662.00 79 Tanzania 11.67 6.13 80 19.40 81 Thailand Trinidad and Tobago 82 t to No ng hi 58 ep 59 Mozambique w n lo 2.93 y th 3.93 ju yi 4.73 pl 1,383.00 al 6,574.00 n n va ll fu m oi 5.50 nh z 12.13 z 50.20 4.00 1.27 0.863 6.1 0.46 36.00 0.33 0.658 3.2 0.422 61.97 13.93 0.31 4.73 1.6 0.731 4.20 7.07 63.40 3.13 gm 0.379 0.33 0.885 9.2 0.137 47.87 0.40 5.07 140.40 3.60 0.67 0.874 8.7 0.586 459.00 91.27 12.43 12.93 22.13 12.21 4.40 0.398 2.7 0.919 3.07 2,713.00 44.20 4.27 4.40 106.47 1.13 2.00 0.654 3.5 0.634 (6.62) 5.53 10,514.00 44.07 62.07 42.36 0.53 3.00 0.736 3.6 va Tunisia 9.53 4.80 3,144.00 52.60 0.80 12.60 49.93 1.27 1.93 0.683 4.3 0.05 83 Turkey 9.87 4.00 5,356.00 53.47 0.80 5.33 35.60 2.73 2.00 0.679 4.4 0.255 84 Uganda 7.67 6.93 380.00 105.40 10.87 3.93 17.00 1.87 4.13 0.422 2.5 0.922 85 Ukraine 5.27 2.33 1,036.00 45.33 1.33 14.40 29.93 7.73 (0.80) 0.71 2.4 0.422 ht 2.40 jm vb 139.64 - 1.82 k om l.c n a Lu - n y te re th 70 0.639 t to No ng 86 NATION United Kingdom hi 87 ep 89 Uruguay Venezuela, RB 90 Vietnam 88 United States w ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 6.93 2.60 28,034.00 52.40 0.73 11.33 119.53 2.67 0.47 0.849 7.6 0.389 6.73 2.53 37,330.00 50.20 2.40 6.07 73.00 2.73 1.33 0.902 7.1 0.575 3.73 3.07 9,097.00 59.20 9.86 2.93 41.67 0.64 0.33 0.765 6.9 0.357 4.87 2.53 5,528.00 59.27 88.36 21.13 3.21 2.27 0.696 0.524 14.87 7.07 723.00 54.47 21.85 58.93 0.77 3.00 0.572 2.7 0.231 - n lo 2.46 ad ju y th Source: Summary of the author from World Bank data, UN, UNDP yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th 71 t to REGRESSION RESULTS (Table 4.10) ng hi ep a ANS_GDPGR w Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:39 Sample: 90 Included observations: 89 n lo ad Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.923754 8.177759 0.017524 -0.175551 1.563716 -0.170542 9.429814 1.851807 0.899712 1.664101 -5.452349 2.555439 -1.971786 0.814385 0.0677 0.3709 0.0999 0.0000 0.0125 0.0520 0.4178 y th Variable ju GDPGR HDI MS XR UBGR AGE C yi pl 0.498839 9.089303 0.010531 0.032197 0.611917 0.086491 11.57906 n ua al Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat n ll fu 9.483602 7.966301 6.552013 6.747748 6.630908 2.103193 oi m 0.441393 0.400519 6.168000 3119.627 -284.5646 10.79894 0.000000 va R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) at nh ANS-GDPPC z b z k jm ht vb Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:41 Sample: 90 Included observations: 90 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.324352 0.300783 6.747587 3915.574 -297.4853 13.76176 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 9.321439 8.069425 6.699674 6.810776 6.744477 2.021608 y te re 0.0008 0.0181 0.0000 0.2424 n 3.460391 2.410493 -5.135126 -1.177187 0.590300 0.511704 0.033785 5.649369 va 2.042668 1.233458 -0.173489 -6.650364 n LOG(GDPPC) UBGR XR C a Lu Prob om t-Statistic l.c Coefficient Std Error gm Variable th 72 t to ng c ANS-AGRI hi ep Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:43 Sample: 90 Included observations: 90 w n ad Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob -0.144045 -0.194603 1.952435 0.009654 -0.192838 20.86654 -2.269896 -5.793823 3.464497 0.952053 -2.987319 5.912747 0.0258 0.0000 0.0008 0.3438 0.0037 0.0000 yi 0.063459 0.033588 0.563555 0.010141 0.064552 3.529077 pl Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat n ua n va 9.321439 8.069425 6.595502 6.762156 6.662707 2.059193 ll fu 0.417659 0.382996 6.338501 3374.834 -290.7976 12.04909 0.000000 al R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) ju y th AGRI XR UBGR MS AGE C lo Variable oi m nh d ANS_ONM at z z Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:45 Sample: 90 Included observations: 90 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 9.321439 8.069425 6.821002 6.987656 6.888207 2.238552 y te re 0.270356 0.226925 7.095015 4228.496 -300.9451 6.224941 0.000059 n R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) va 0.0301 0.0837 0.0193 0.3399 0.0132 0.0489 n -2.205683 -1.750152 2.385695 0.959875 2.532981 1.998892 0.061638 0.071622 0.625828 0.012072 0.420671 4.589746 a Lu -0.135953 -0.125349 1.493034 0.011587 1.065553 9.174407 om ONM AGE UBGR MS CPI C l.c Prob gm t-Statistic k Coefficient Std Error jm ht vb Variable th e ANS-GDPGR (developing countries) 73 t to ng hi Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:49 Sample: 90 IF DM=1 Included observations: 60 ep Variable w GDPGR HDI MS XR C n lo ad Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob 0.830633 4.390209 0.136512 -0.129807 -0.878673 1.637796 0.747147 4.089866 -3.538651 -0.177779 0.1072 0.4582 0.0001 0.0008 0.8596 0.507165 5.875964 0.033378 0.036683 4.942512 y th 0.495336 0.458633 5.986107 1970.841 -189.8925 13.49583 0.000000 ju yi pl Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 8.450748 8.135768 6.496415 6.670944 6.564683 2.340645 n ua al R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n a Lu n va y te re th 74