From economic growth to sustainable development: lessons for Vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FOR VIETNAM BY NGUYEN THI HONG MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2012 UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: LESSONS FOR VIETNAM A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By NGUYEN THI HONG Academic Supervisor: ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DR PHAM HOANG VAN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DR NGUYEN TRONG HOAI HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2012 DECLARATION I would like to declare that this thesis:" From economic growth to sustainable development: Lessons for Vietnam" is original I ensure that this paper has not been submitted anywhere for the award of any degree This thesis was completed with big support from my supervisors All source of data and information have been fully referenced NGUYEN THI HONG MDE16 i ACKNOWLEGDEMENT I would like to express my greatest gratitude to respectful supervisors, Associate Professors – Dr PHAM HOANG VAN, Baylor University and Dr NGUYEN TRONG HOAI, Vice President of UEH They already helped and supported me many interesting courses, especially valuable advice, guidance and inspiration for me finish this study on time I also want to express my thanks to all Professor of the MDE Program during the past two years (2009-2011), my friends of MDE16, UEH administrative staff at Economic Development Faculty, who supported many useful documents and materials I cannot forget the support from my big family all the time I followed this program At last but not the least, I am so sorry and would like to share my condolences when Professor KAREL JANSEN - who had great contributions to the program - passed away That was really a big loss for all of us Best regards NGUYEN THI HONG MDE 16 ii ABSTRACT In the scenes of strong economic development all over the world during some decades ago, the new problems that are happening everywhere is the consequence of progress can be attract more concerns of economists That is the trade-off of economic achievements and the degradation of environment, the exploitation of natural resources, the global warming, the rise of sea level and so on The new concept about development - sustainable development - now becomes familiar It is a new economic approach to express the development which care not only economic growth but also reservation of the natural resources, the environmental pollution, the investment on education From that point of view, by using data of 90 countries, the author hopes to find out the relationship between sustainable development and other determinants such as GDP growth, export of natural resources and agricultural products, urban population growth, Human Development Index, corruption impact and so on I strongly believe that the discovery of these relationships can provide some valuable lessons for development progress for developing countries and Vietnam Key words: sustainable development, economic growth, adjusted net savings iii TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION i ACKNOWLEGDEMENT ii ABSTRACT iii TABLE OF CONTENT iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vi LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES, GRAPHS viii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1.1Research background 1.2 Statement of problem 1.3 Research objectives 1.4 Research questions 1.5Research methodology 1.6 Structure of thesis CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2.1 Concepts of economic growth, economic development and sustainable development 2.2 Approaches of sustainable development 2.3 Objectives and significance of sustainable development 10 2.4 Indicators of sustainable development 11 2.5 Linkage of various determinants of sustainable development 14 2.6 Benefits and drawbacks of adjusted net savings 15 2.7 Empirical Models 16 2.8 Empirical studies relating to sustainable development 22 2.10 Chapter remarks 30 CHAPTER III 32 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 32 3.1 Econometric techniques 32 iv 3.2 Data collection 35 3.3 Data analysis 35 3.4 Chapter remarks 36 CHAPTER IV 37 RESEARCH RESULTS 37 4.1 Descriptive statistics 37 4.2 Relationship between adjusted net saving and other factors 41 4.3 Empirical analysis 44 4.4 Chapter remarks 53 CHAPTER V 55 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM 55 CHAPTER VI 58 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 58 6.1 Main findings 58 6.3 Limitations of thesis title 61 6.4 Further research 61 REFERENCES 62 APPENDIX v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank IMF International Monetary Bank NGO Non Governmental Organization CO2 Carbon Dioxide CPI Corruption Perception Index ELF Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization GDP Gross Domestic Product GDPPC Gross Domestic Product per capita GNI Gross National Income HCMC Ho Chi Minh City HDI Human Development Index MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment OECD The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OLS Ordinary Least Squares TFP Total Factor Productivity TSLS Two Stage Least Squares UN The United Nations UNCED The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNDP The United Nations Development Program WB The World Bank WTO World Trade Organization WCED World Commission on Environment and Development vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Expectation the influence of determinants on adjusted net savings 22 Table 2.2: Summary of empirical studies relating to sustainable development 27 Table 4.1: Descriptive statistics 39 Table 4.2: Covariance and correlation 40 Table 4.3: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP growth rates by OLS 44 Table 4.4: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP growth rates by TSLS 46 Table 4.5: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP per capita by OLS 47 Table 4.6: Regression adjusted net savings and GDP per capita by TSLS 48 Table 4.7: Regression adjusted net savings on Export of agricultural raw products 50 Table 4.8: Regression adjusted net savings on Export of natural resources 51 Table 4.9: Regression adjusted net savings with GDP growth rates in developing countries 52 Table 4.10: Summary results 54 Table 5.1: Vietnam Data 55 vii LIST OF FIGURES, GRAPHS Figure 2.1: Linkage of various determiants of sudtainable development……………….15 Graph 2.1: How to calculate adjusted net savings 12 Graph 2.1: Conceptual framework 30 Graph 4.1: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and GDP growths (1996-2010) 41 Graph 4.2: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and and GDPPC2010 42 Graph 4.3: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and export of agricultural raw products in period 1996-2010 42 Graph 4.4: Relationship between Adjusted net saving and and export of natural resources in period 1996-2010 43 Graph 4.5: Relationship between Adjusted net savings and GDP growth of developing countries in period 1996-2010 44 viii the impact of this factor is very little in many cases but the good institution can bring more opportunities for achieving sustainable development It is very clear in developed countries where they have very high CPI index Fourth, export of natural resources will lower adjusted net saving though this activity now is mainly income of many developing countries all over the world So the effective measurement for controlling the activity of the export of natural resources need to apply quickly and urgently because many natural resources need a long time for renew or reproduce Developing countries can limit this activity by investment more for manufactured industries then export of high value-added products by advanced technologies It will replace step by step the exploitation of natural resources for export raw materials Last, the age dependency ratio is a burden of society because they are not non working people, they not contribute for economic growth High rate of this factor also causes many social problems such as high expenditure for control crime, health care, education and so on For decrease of this ratio by creating jobs, extension working age as developed countries have done is a lesson for developing countries 6.2.2 For Vietnam context In Vietnam context, beside general suggested policies above, some extra valuable lessons can be considered as follows: Maintain economic growth rate with inflation rates under the acceptable control level by flexible fiscal and monetary policies Lessons can be structural trasformation from agricultural economy to service or industrial economy as Hongkong, Singapore, Taiwan In these countries, economic development came from shifting massively into service sectors by developing new fields like insurance, finance, away from manufacturing Supporting and developing industrial and manufacturing sectors, step by step decreasing the export of natural resources and raw agricultural products That requires strongly consideration from Government by some industrial policies like many industrial countries in Asia For example, in case of Taiwan, there are two stages for economic development, first stage is importsubstitution program in industry and second stage is import- substitution in the industrial 60 upgrading In case of Korea, economic development is facilitated by the formation of Heavy Chemical Industry Drive and General Trading Comapny 24 Increasing practical and valuable programs for limit the exploitations of natural resources and air polluted emissions are necessary All activities relate to this programs will be plant new forest, reservation of biological systems, recycle and re-use more materials which come from natural resources Increasing the control measurements for air emission, waste water pollution from domestic manufacturers in industrial zones; limit the uncontrollable of dangerous pollutants for environment, prevent the import of industrial pollutants from developed countries by applying international standards about the export and import raw materials Of course, a high rate of adjusted net savings are always good sign for sustainable development in Vietnam some years ago However, considering these trade-off problems between economic benefits and other activities as depletion of natural resources or environmental pollution are very important for policy makers All above solutions will be successful or not require the capacity of Government in the efficient governance by reducing corruption, stable financial system, policies for facilitating industrialization Success in these areas management can be help to improve sustainable development for Vietnam 6.3 Limitations of thesis title This paper uses adjusted net savings for evaluating sustainable development so the limit of measure this indicator will limit the value of this thesis The number of countries in this paper is limited within 90, some other effect such as trade, FDI are not account for 6.4 Further research From this paper, many problems open for a new series of studies in future This paper does not mention the impact of economic growth on strong sustainability, the relationship between weak and strong sustainability, the relationship between sustainable development-economic growth- society development We can explore the effect of FDI on sustainability, the trade balance, the unemployment, inflation 24 Henry Y Wan Jr., Economic Development in a Globalized Environment, Springer, 2005 61 REFERENCES Adrian Boos (2011) “The theoretical relationship between the Resource Curve Hypothesis and Genuine savings”, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Alam S., Fatina A., Butt M S (2007), “Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation.” Journal of Asian Economics 18, 825-837 Atkinson G., Hamilton K (2003), “Saving, Growth and the Resource Curse Hypothesis.” World Development 31: 1793–1807 Barro, Robert (1991) “ Economic growth in a cross section of countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, no 2: 407–43 Clarke M., M.N Islam S (2005), “Diminishing and negative welfare returns of economic growth: An index of sustainable economic welfare ISEW for Thailand.” Ecological Economics 54, 81-93 Cook, Christopher ( 2005) Population growth and savings rates: Some new cross country estimates International Review of Applied Economics 19, no 3: 301–319 Daly H E (1991), “Operational Principles for sustainable development” Daly H E., Cobb J (1999), “For the common good.” Beacon Press, Boston, MA Daniel D Morana, Mathis Wackernagela, Justin A Kitzesa, Steven H Goldfingera, Aurélien Boutaudc (2008), “Measuring sustainable development: Nation by nation.” Ecological Economics 64: 470-474 10 Dietz S., Neumayer E., Soysa I D (2007), “Corruption, the resource curse and genuine saving”, Environment and Development Economics 12:33-53 11 Dimitrios Asteriou and Stephen G Hall, Applied Econometrics a modern approach, revised edition, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007 12 Dwight Perkins, Steven Radelet and David Lindauer, The Economic Development , 6th ed., Norton 2006 13 E Wayne Nafziger, Economic Development, fourth edition, Cambrigde University Press, 2006 62 14 Gallup J L., Sachs J and Mellinger A.D (1998), “Geography and Economic Growth” 15 Grace T R Lin, Hope C (2004), “Genuine savings measurement and its application to the United Kingdom and Taiwan”, The Developing Economies XVII-1: 3−41 16 Hamilton C (1999), “The genuine progress indicator: methodological developments and results from Australia.” Ecological Economics 30: 13–28 17 Hamilton K and Clement M (1999), “Genuine saving rate in developing countries.” The World Bank Economic Review 13:333-356 18 Harris M J (2000), “Basic principles of sustainable development.” Global Development and Environment Institute, Working paper 00-04 19 Harris M J., Wise T A., P Gall K and R Goodwin N., (2001) “A survey of sustainable development: Social and Economic Dimensions”, Washington: The Global Development and Environment Institute Tufts University, Island Press.nn 20 Henry Y Wan Jr., Economic Development in a Globalized Environment, Springer, 2005 21 http://weber.ucsustainable development.edu\~proeder\elf.htm 22 http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators 23 http://undp.org/en/statistics/hdi 24 http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/20010 25 J.Ram Pillarisetti (2005) “Analysis The World Bank ‘s “genuine saving” measure and sustainability”, Ecological Economics 55 (2005) 599-609 26 Jong Il Kim and Laurence Lau (1994) "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrial Countries", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol 8, pp 235-71 27 Lawn P A (2003),“A theoretical foundation to support the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) and other related indexes.” Ecological Economics 44: 105-118 28 Le Le S (1991), “Sustainable Development: a Critical review.” 29 Lee H H., Chung R K., Koo C M (2005), “On the relationship of economic growth and environmental sustainability.” 30 Leff, Nathaniel (1969) “Dependency rates and savings rates”, American Economic Review 59, no 5: 886–96 63 31 Liz Tucker (2008) “Theory survey of Sustainable Development” 32 Moe T (2003), “The Norwegian model for sustainable development: A policy oriented capital framework for measurement and policies.” 33 OECD, 2001, Sustainable Development: Critical issues 34 Paolo Mauro (1995) “Corruption and Growth”, The Quarterly Journal Economics Vol 110: 681-713, MIT Press 35 Partha Dasgupta (2007) “Measuring Sustainable Development: Theory and Application”, Asian Development Review, vol 24, no 1, pp1-10 36 Paul Krugman (1994) "The Myth of Asia's Micrale", Foreign Affairs, Volume 73, no 37 Paul M Romer (1994)” The Origins of Endogenous Growth, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 8, No 1, pp 3-22 38 Pearce D., Atkinson G., Hamilton K., Dubourg R., Young C and Munasinghe M (1997), Measuring Sustainable Development: Macroeconomics and the Environment, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., United Kingdom 39 Peter Hess (2010) “Determinants of the adjusted net saving rate in developing economies”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol 24, No 5, September 2010, 591–608 40 Pezzey J (1992), “Sustainable Development concepts.” World Bank Environment paper Number 41 Pham Hoang Van, Henry Wan, Jr (1997), "Interpreting East Asian Growth" in Dynamics, Economic Growth and International Trade”, Bjarne Jensen and Kar-yiu Wong (eds.), University of Michigan Press, pp.265-86 42 Philip G Roeder (2001) "Ethno linguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985." February 43 Robert et al., (2004) “ Viewpoint: Weak versus strong sustainability” 44 Robert Solow (1957) "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol 39 45 The Minister of Planning and Investment, 2004, The Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development in Vietnam 46 The United Nations, 2008, “Measuring Sustainable Development” 64 47 The United Nations, Earth Summit Agenda 21, Program of Action from Rio, 1992 48 The United Nations, Johannesburg Summit 2002, Taking Actions for Earth Future, 2002 49 The United Nations, Report of World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future, 1987 50 Tran Vo Hung Son, Chau Van Thanh (1998)” Analysis of the sources of economic growth of Vietnam”, Centre for ASEAN Studies 51 UNDP, 2010, Human Development Report 2010, United Nations Development Program 52 Yacouba Gnègnè (2009), Adjusted net saving and welfare change, Ecological Economics 68 (2009), 1127-1139 APPENDIX CALCULATING ADJUSTED NET SAVING ITEM (WORLD BANK) 65 Gross national saving (GNS): Difference between GNI and public and private consumption plus net current transfers Depreciation: Replacement value of capital used up in the process of production Net national saving (NNS): Difference between gross national saving and the consumption of fixed capital Education expenditure: Public current operating expenditures in education, including wages and salaries and excluding capital investments in buildings and equipment Energy depletion (ED): Ratio of present value (PV) of rents, discounted at 4%, to exhaustion time of the resource Rent is calculated as the product of unit resource rents and the physical quantities of energy resources extracted It covers coal, crude oil, and natural gas Mineral depletion (MD): Ratio of present value of rents, discounted at 4%, to exhaustion time of the resource Rent is calculated as the product of unit resource rents and the physical quantities of mineral extracted It covers tin, gold, lead, zinc, iron, copper, nickel, silver, bauxite, and phosphate Net forest depletion (NFD): Product of unit resource rents and the excess of round wood harvest over natural growth CO2 damages (CO2D): A conservative figure of $20 marginal global damages per ton of carbon emitted was taken from Fankhauser (1994) PM damages (PMD): Willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid mortality and morbidity attributable to particulate emissions 10 Adjusted net saving (ANS): Net national saving plus education expenditure and minus energy depletion, mineral depletion, net forest depletion, carbon dioxide damage, and particulate emissions damage CALCULATING VARIABLES IN MODELS a ANS =Average adjusted net saving rate for 1996-2010, % of GNI= (ANS1996+ANS1997+…+ANS 2009)/ number of year (1996-2010) 66 b HDI =Human Development Index for 2010, score from 0- 1, higher index means higher human development c GDPGR =average growth rate of real GDP for 1996-2010, annual % growth= (GDPgrowth1996+GDP growth1997+ + GDP growth 2009) i/number of year (19962010) d GDPPC2010 = GDP in 2010, $US e AGE= Average age dependency ratio for 1996 and 2010, % of working-age f CPI = corruption perception index for 2010, score from 0- 10, higher score means more perception about corruption g MS = average money and quasi money growth for 1996-2010, % of GDP=(MS/GDP1996+MS/GDP1997+….+MS/GDP2010)/ number of year (19962010) h XR = share of fuels, ores, and metals in merchandise exports for 1996-2010, % of merchandise export==[(export of fuel + ore + metal) 1996+(export of fuel + ore + metal) 1997+….+(export of fuel + ore + metal) 2010]/ number of year (1996-2010)] i AGRI= agricultural raw material exports for 1996-2010, % of merchandise exports j ONM= ores and metals exports, % merchandise exports k UBGR=average urban population growth for 1996-2010, annual % 67 DATA OF COUNTRIES No NATION ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 Argentina 5.20 4.00 10,749.00 58.67 1.80 16.53 27.20 3.20 1.13 0.775 2.9 0.288 Armenia 1.27 7.20 1,327.00 53.00 2.85 30.62 14.73 27.15 (0.53) 0.695 2.6 0.128 Australia 6.67 3.47 25,249.00 48.93 4.53 44.33 76.00 20.67 1.53 0.937 8.7 0.437 Austria 14.47 2.13 26,694.00 47.93 2.27 5.47 164.45 3.00 0.67 0.851 7.9 0.153 Bangladesh 18.73 5.53 558.00 66.00 1.73 0.36 44.13 3.33 0.469 2.4 0.043 Belarus 15.53 7.00 2,740.00 45.07 2.77 26.62 16.67 0.92 0.732 2.5 0.374 Belgium 13.78 1.93 24,518.00 51.73 1.08 9.17 123.18 3.08 0.40 0.867 7.1 0.589 Benin 2.64 4.60 377.00 92.00 69.64 0.98 27.60 0.18 4.00 0.435 2.8 0.525 Bolivia 0.53 3.67 1,233.00 75.40 3.40 55.20 52.47 25.13 2.67 0.643 2.8 0.740 10 Botswana 31.13 5.33 4,190.00 65.73 12.82 32.93 12.82 3.27 0.633 5.8 0.399 11 Brazil 5.67 3.07 4,717.00 52.53 4.13 15.47 47.93 10.47 1.80 0.699 3.7 0.576 12 Bulgaria 2.07 2.87 2,555.00 46.27 2.20 23.00 46.80 13.07 (0.20) 0.743 3.6 0.225 13 Burkina Faso 1.57 6.33 283.00 93.93 65.79 0.71 21.13 0.21 5.00 0.305 3.1 0.712 14 Cambodia 6.46 7.87 558.00 73.47 1.91 0.36 18.40 0.36 4.67 0.494 2.1 0.238 15 Cameroon 1.75 3.73 714.00 84.07 15.46 55.00 15.53 4.77 4.00 0.46 2.2 0.879 16 Canada 10.07 2.67 25,575.00 45.33 5.60 23.13 113.92 5.93 1.13 0.888 8.9 0.769 17 Chile 5.13 3.87 6,430.00 51.20 7.73 52.13 66.27 51.20 1.47 0.783 7.2 0.515 18 China 30.93 9.80 2,426.00 44.47 0.73 4.47 135.00 1.87 3.20 0.663 3.5 0.131 19 Colombia 2.60 3.27 3,233.00 57.67 4.93 41.60 29.93 1.33 2.00 0.689 3.5 0.596 20 Costa Rica 13.80 4.60 5,227.00 54.47 3.27 1.80 36.33 1.13 3.00 0.725 5.3 0.458 21 Cote d'Ivoire 4.79 1.87 588.00 82.27 9.80 21.13 25.07 0.07 3.13 0.397 2.2 0.896 22 8.40 3.13 15,328.00 46.20 1.13 9.53 179.93 7.47 1.93 0.81 6.3 0.329 23 Cyprus Czech Republic 8.27 3.00 7,803.00 42.33 1.80 5.40 60.87 2.07 0.20 0.841 4.6 0.107 24 Denmark 13.20 1.27 30,529.00 50.73 2.80 8.07 65.60 1.27 0.53 0.866 9.3 0.061 25 Ecuador 2.07 3.40 1,728.00 62.73 4.67 46.20 24.13 0.27 2.53 0.695 2.5 0.657 26 El Salvador 4.00 2.27 2,556.00 73.73 0.53 4.40 46.20 1.53 1.40 0.659 3.6 0.159 27 Estonia 13.33 4.80 5,980.00 48.73 7.27 11.27 38.67 3.13 (0.40) 0.812 6.5 0.528 - - - 68 No NATION ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 28 Ethiopia 5.40 7.27 221.00 91.33 15.86 1.40 35.69 1.29 4.00 0.328 2.7 0.766 29 Finland 15.40 2.80 27,114.00 49.87 5.80 7.73 74.60 3.60 0.67 0.871 9.2 0.129 30 France 12.00 1.67 22,758.00 53.73 1.00 5.47 118.36 2.20 1.00 0.872 6.8 0.318 31 Gambia, The 8.40 4.40 704.00 90.53 3.60 3.16 26.93 3.07 4.67 0.39 3.2 0.716 32 Germany 10.87 1.40 25,306.00 48.73 1.00 4.07 177.27 2.40 0.885 7.9 0.111 33 Ghana 7.60 5.33 360.00 78.00 9.46 12.69 24.13 8.92 4.00 0.467 4.1 0.874 34 Greece 2.36 2.47 13,578.00 48.07 3.00 17.60 93.78 7.93 0.93 0.855 3.5 0.085 35 Guinea (4.60) 5.67 550.00 89.33 1.75 71.08 11.20 70.75 3.00 0.34 0.784 36 Honduras 18.33 3.87 1,392.00 81.00 3.54 7.08 44.40 6.15 3.00 0.604 2.4 0.120 37 Hungary 6.07 2.33 5,634.00 46.07 1.07 4.40 48.73 2.13 0.805 4.7 0.013 38 Iceland 5.73 3.07 33,884.00 52.00 1.00 23.07 60.93 22.53 1.20 0.869 8.5 0.033 39 India 17.80 7.00 795.00 61.07 1.53 12.67 56.67 4.73 2.27 0.519 3.3 0.878 40 Indonesia 11.80 3.93 1,145.00 52.93 5.13 32.67 43.93 6.87 3.93 0.6 2.8 0.757 41 Ireland 19.13 2.50 27,599.00 48.53 0.40 1.00 145.47 0.60 1.87 0.895 0.029 42 Italy 9.33 0.93 18,943.00 49.60 1.00 3.93 88.67 1.33 0.53 0.854 3.9 0.114 43 Japan 10.27 0.73 39,972.00 49.47 0.80 2.47 215.33 1.73 0.884 7.8 0.014 44 Jordan 13.40 5.13 2,579.00 72.53 0.07 16.67 113.33 16.29 2.20 0.681 4.7 0.455 45 Kazakhstan (10.73) 6.47 2,482.00 50.07 1.29 73.64 21.27 16.86 0.60 0.714 2.9 0.692 46 Korea, Rep 21.87 4.20 16,219.00 39.40 1.00 6.73 60.47 1.60 1.00 0.877 5.4 0.003 47 Kuwait 9.00 4.27 23,115.00 40.47 91.23 70.40 3.47 0.771 4.5 0.788 48 Latvia 3.87 4.67 5,011.00 47.93 19.80 7.07 32.67 3.80 (0.73) 0.769 4.3 0.61 49 Lebanon (5.11) 3.93 6,746.00 55.27 1.86 9.93 190.27 9.86 1.60 2.5 0.356 50 Lithuania 4.20 4.53 5,333.00 48.73 3.80 22.13 30.33 1.80 (0.67) 0.783 0.353 51 19.67 3.93 52,306.00 48.33 1.08 6.08 598.20 5.50 1.40 0.852 8.5 0.426 52 Luxembourg Macedonia, FYR 3.27 2.60 2,220.00 45.87 1.69 10.15 30.00 6.46 1.00 0.701 4.1 0.511 53 Malaysia 20.47 4.73 5,185.00 58.33 2.67 12.60 125.07 1.27 3.93 0.744 4.4 0.687 54 Mali 4.50 5.47 273.00 98.40 69.93 1.79 25.27 0.21 5.00 0.309 2.7 0.833 55 Mauritius 14.47 4.60 5,181.00 45.47 0.53 0.27 85.73 0.27 1.00 0.701 5.4 0.489 56 Mexico 12.33 3.07 6,105.00 60.53 0.67 13.73 27.60 1.93 2.00 0.75 3.1 0.219 - 69 - - - - No NATION ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 57 Morocco 22.13 4.80 1,844.00 58.53 2.00 12.20 80.80 10.00 2.00 0.567 3.4 0.399 58 Mozambique (0.60) 7.67 384.00 89.73 6.00 51.93 25.53 38.57 5.20 0.284 2.7 0.698 59 Namibia 22.93 4.20 2,696.00 74.87 0.89 18.67 40.33 18.00 3.67 0.606 4.4 0.722 60 Netherlands 14.47 2.20 26,553.00 47.80 3.13 9.60 157.46 2.13 1.47 0.89 8.8 0.345 61 New Zealand 9.14 2.53 14,880.00 51.47 12.33 7.60 81.67 4.40 1.27 0.907 9.3 0.421 62 Nicaragua 2.93 3.67 907.00 75.53 2.33 2.27 36.27 1.13 2.00 0.565 2.5 0.390 63 Niger 0.60 3.93 179.00 103.40 2.60 58.13 12.13 56.87 4.00 0.261 2.6 0.682 64 Peru 6.93 4.73 3,181.00 61.53 2.13 54.07 30.93 45.60 1.40 0.723 3.5 0.510 65 Philippines 15.87 4.40 1,383.00 69.47 0.93 4.53 55.67 2.87 3.40 0.638 2.4 0.859 66 Poland 8.40 4.40 6,574.00 44.13 1.40 9.53 41.13 4.67 (0.07) 0.795 5.3 0.035 67 Portugal 4.47 1.80 11,748.00 48.40 2.53 5.47 124.36 2.33 1.67 0.795 0.007 68 6.53 2.53 2,637.00 45.07 3.07 11.67 28.87 4.60 (0.13) 0.767 3.7 0.208 69 Romania Russian Federation 2.20 3.73 2,927.00 42.53 2.93 62.13 27.60 8.60 (0.27) 0.565 2.1 0.333 70 Rwanda 4.71 8.47 337.00 88.07 5.50 28.29 15.60 28.29 9.87 0.385 0.26 71 Senegal 6.36 4.20 562.00 89.93 3.53 24.80 28.00 6.20 3.00 0.411 2.9 0.791 72 Singapore 33.47 5.87 32,641.00 39.13 0.27 12.13 108.47 1.20 2.40 0.846 9.3 0.398 73 Slovenia 13.33 3.33 12,732.00 42.87 1.53 5.80 50.20 4.00 0.828 6.4 0.179 74 Spain 11.07 2.73 15,458.00 46.13 1.00 5.93 139.64 2.40 1.27 0.863 6.1 0.46 75 Sri Lanka 18.27 5.13 1,309.00 49.20 2.45 1.82 36.00 1.82 0.33 0.658 3.2 0.422 76 Sudan (5.93) 6.27 524.00 81.93 10.23 61.97 13.93 0.31 4.73 0.379 1.6 0.731 77 Sweden 18.13 2.47 32,507.00 54.33 4.20 7.07 63.40 3.13 0.33 0.885 9.2 0.137 78 Switzerland 18.47 1.93 37,662.00 47.87 0.40 5.07 140.40 3.60 0.67 0.874 8.7 0.586 79 Tanzania 11.67 6.13 459.00 91.27 12.43 12.93 22.13 12.21 4.40 0.398 2.7 0.919 80 19.40 3.07 2,713.00 44.20 4.27 4.40 106.47 1.13 2.00 0.654 3.5 0.634 81 Thailand Trinidad and Tobago (6.62) 5.53 10,514.00 44.07 62.07 42.36 0.53 3.00 0.736 3.6 0.639 82 Tunisia 9.53 4.80 3,144.00 52.60 0.80 12.60 49.93 1.27 1.93 0.683 4.3 0.05 83 Turkey 9.87 4.00 5,356.00 53.47 0.80 5.33 35.60 2.73 2.00 0.679 4.4 0.255 84 Uganda 7.67 6.93 380.00 105.40 10.87 3.93 17.00 1.87 4.13 0.422 2.5 0.922 85 Ukraine 5.27 2.33 1,036.00 45.33 1.33 14.40 29.93 7.73 (0.80) 0.71 2.4 0.422 - 70 - No ANS GDPGR GDPPC AGE AGRI XR MS ONM UBGR HDI CPI ELF85 86 NATION United Kingdom 6.93 2.60 28,034.00 52.40 0.73 11.33 119.53 2.67 0.47 0.849 7.6 0.389 87 United States 6.73 2.53 37,330.00 50.20 2.40 6.07 73.00 2.73 1.33 0.902 7.1 0.575 88 3.73 3.07 9,097.00 59.20 9.86 2.93 41.67 0.64 0.33 0.765 6.9 0.357 89 Uruguay Venezuela, RB 4.87 2.53 5,528.00 59.27 88.36 21.13 3.21 2.27 0.696 0.524 90 Vietnam 14.87 7.07 723.00 54.47 21.85 58.93 0.77 3.00 0.572 2.7 0.231 2.46 Source: Summary of the author from World Bank data, UN, UNDP 71 REGRESSION RESULTS (Table 4.10) a ANS_GDPGR Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:39 Sample: 90 Included observations: 89 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob GDPGR HDI MS XR UBGR AGE C 0.923754 8.177759 0.017524 -0.175551 1.563716 -0.170542 9.429814 1.851807 0.899712 1.664101 -5.452349 2.555439 -1.971786 0.814385 0.0677 0.3709 0.0999 0.0000 0.0125 0.0520 0.4178 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.441393 0.400519 6.168000 3119.627 -284.5646 10.79894 0.000000 b 0.498839 9.089303 0.010531 0.032197 0.611917 0.086491 11.57906 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 9.483602 7.966301 6.552013 6.747748 6.630908 2.103193 ANS-GDPPC Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:41 Sample: 90 Included observations: 90 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(GDPPC) UBGR XR C 2.042668 1.233458 -0.173489 -6.650364 3.460391 2.410493 -5.135126 -1.177187 0.0008 0.0181 0.0000 0.2424 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.324352 0.300783 6.747587 3915.574 -297.4853 13.76176 0.000000 0.590300 0.511704 0.033785 5.649369 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 9.321439 8.069425 6.699674 6.810776 6.744477 2.021608 72 c ANS-AGRI Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:43 Sample: 90 Included observations: 90 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob AGRI XR UBGR MS AGE C -0.144045 -0.194603 1.952435 0.009654 -0.192838 20.86654 -2.269896 -5.793823 3.464497 0.952053 -2.987319 5.912747 0.0258 0.0000 0.0008 0.3438 0.0037 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.417659 0.382996 6.338501 3374.834 -290.7976 12.04909 0.000000 0.063459 0.033588 0.563555 0.010141 0.064552 3.529077 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 9.321439 8.069425 6.595502 6.762156 6.662707 2.059193 d ANS_ONM Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:45 Sample: 90 Included observations: 90 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob ONM AGE UBGR MS CPI C -0.135953 -0.125349 1.493034 0.011587 1.065553 9.174407 -2.205683 -1.750152 2.385695 0.959875 2.532981 1.998892 0.0301 0.0837 0.0193 0.3399 0.0132 0.0489 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.270356 0.226925 7.095015 4228.496 -300.9451 6.224941 0.000059 0.061638 0.071622 0.625828 0.012072 0.420671 4.589746 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat e ANS-GDPGR (developing countries) 73 9.321439 8.069425 6.821002 6.987656 6.888207 2.238552 Dependent Variable: ANS Method: Least Squares Date: 10/17/12 Time: 21:49 Sample: 90 IF DM=1 Included observations: 60 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob GDPGR HDI MS XR C 0.830633 4.390209 0.136512 -0.129807 -0.878673 1.637796 0.747147 4.089866 -3.538651 -0.177779 0.1072 0.4582 0.0001 0.0008 0.8596 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.495336 0.458633 5.986107 1970.841 -189.8925 13.49583 0.000000 0.507165 5.875964 0.033378 0.036683 4.942512 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 74 8.450748 8.135768 6.496415 6.670944 6.564683 2.340645