International economic relations the 1973 oil crisis and its effects on the international economy

MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DIPLOMATIC ACADEMY OF VIETNAM FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS ======*****====== INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS THE 1973 OIL CRISIS AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY Instructor : Ph.D Lâm Thanh Hà Ms Nguyễn Ngọc Hà Class : QHKTQT (2) Group : 11 Student : Phạm Thùy Bạch Dương KDQT48C1 - 0036 Nguyễn Lê Minh Anh KDQT48C1 - 0009 Lê Hương Ly KDQT48C1 - 0064 Hoàng Bảo Lam KDQT48C1 - 0051 Phạm Tùng Dương KDQT48C1 - 0037 Hanoi, November 2022 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS A INTRODUCTION B CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS 1.1 Definition of Oil Prices 1.2 Definition of Oil Crisis 1.3 What is OPEC? CHAPTER 2: ABOUT THE 1973 OIL CRISIS 2.1 Background CHAPTER 3: THE 1973 OIL CRISIS ECONOMY EFFECTS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES 10 3.1 Energy Crisis: Effects on the globe in general 10 3.1.1 Energy Crisis: Effects on the economy 10 3.1.1.1 The US 11 3.1.1.2 Jap an 11 3.1.2 Energy Crisis: Effects on the industry 13 3.1.2.1 West European 13 3.1.2.2 The US 13 3.1.2.3 Japan 14 3.2 Effects on human 14 3.2.1 Lost jobs 14 3.2.2 Lower consumer confidence 14 3.3 Energy Crisis: Lasting impact 15 CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSIONS 16 4.1 Evaluation of the Oil Crisis 16 4.2 Practical research finding: Russia - Ukraine War 16 C CONCLUSION 18 D REFERENCES 19 MEMBERS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 22 LIST OF ACRONYMS No Acronym BPD GDP Barrels Per Day Gross Domestic Product Meaning OPEC OAPEC US Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries United States WCS WTI Western Canadian Select West Texas Intermediate A INTRODUCTION Recently, the crisis between Russia and Ukraine caused the dramatic increase of the oil price Not only did the oil price climb unexpectedly, the world economy also changed Link it to 1973, there was an oil crisis happening in this year The multifaceted effects of sudden, unexpected, and significant increases in the price of crude petroleum were at the root of the oil crises of the 1970s The crises had immediate and undeniable effects on the global economy in addition to having a significant impact on events in the Middle East and the oil business, where they both originated The 1973 crisis in particular led to a rift between the United States and its transatlantic allies, Japan's first break with American foreign policy since the Second World War, and intense discussion about energy and broader foreign policy issues within the recently expanded European Economic Community For the ostensibly fortunate oil producers, it produced a dramatic increase in oil revenues twice in a single decade For oil consumers, whether industrialized nations or less-developed countries, it increased the cost of imports severalfold The countries that export oil exploited their new power in international politics to push for a significant reworking of the historical connections between rich and developing countries, especially a New International Economic Order The global economic institutions struggled to absorb the influx of petrodollars into an unsteady global economy, and OPEC meetings, which had previously been mostly ignored by the international press, now dominated news coverage It is necessary to briefly discuss the role played by petroleum and its derivatives in the global economy in order to understand why, during a period of rising inflation and in a world economy dominated by the industrialized countries, an increase in the price of one commodity should have had such an impact For that reason, in this essay, our group will investigate ideas to make clear of the oil crisis in 1973 and its impacts on the world economy and from the data that we have gathered, we will give our opinions about this crisis B CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS 1.1 Definition of Oil Prices Oil prices are mostly known as the price of crude oil, from which petroleum products such as gasoline are derived There is not one price for crude oil but many World crude oil prices measure the spot price of various barrels of oil, the most common markets are the three market traded benchmarks: WTI, Brent Crude and the Dubai Crude The reference basket price of the OPEC, the futures price of the New York Mercantile Exchange and WCS are also sometimes quoted What drives the price of oil? Oil prices are influenced by a number of factors beyond the traditional movements of supply, demand and political instability Firstly, current supply and future supply has to with how much oil is available Supply has traditionally been determined by countries that are part of OPEC But now, the United States is contributing more to supply thanks to booming production from American shale fields So if major oil-producing countries are pumping out a lot of petroleum, the supply will be high which leads to the steadiness of the price of oil Secondly, the required amount of oil at a particular time determines demand Frequently, that demand is for things like transportation, heat, and energy The more economic growth a region experiences, the more demand there will be for oil Lastly, since the major oil-producing nations control supply, tension with one of them can have a significant negative impact Therefore, if there’s war or conflict in an oil-producing region, crude inventories may appear threatened, which could ultimately affect the oil price 1.2 Definition of Oil Crisis An oil crisis can be best defined as a sharp increase in the oil price supplemented by a sudden decrease in the oil supply Oil is known as one of the biggest drivers of energy especially in the advanced industrial economy, because of that reason any form of oil crisis can lead up to severe economic and political instability Depending on the severity of the crisis, it can debilitate the global economy which causes a worldwide recession or a significant reduction in global real GDP below projected rates by 2-3% percentage points 1.3 What is OPEC? The OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organization, created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10 to September 14, 1960, by founding members Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela Until now, 16 countries have joined OPEC totally According to the OPEC website, OPEC's objective is to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers; an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the industry The organization is dedicated to figuring out how to make sure that there are no significant changes in the price of oil on the global market By doing this, it is possible to protect member countries' interests while ensuring that they continue to earn consistent revenue from the unbroken flow of crude oil to other nations CHAPTER 2: ABOUT THE 1973 OIL CRISIS 2.1.Background 2.1.1 The decline of American production After World War 2, during the 1950s and 1960s, the US controlled 90% of all oil exports from developing countries The U S imported 350 million barrels a year in the late 1950s, mainly from Venezuela and Canada Due to shipping costs and tariffs, they never buy much oil from the Middle East Figure: US Oil Production and Imports, 1920 - 2000 (Source: US Energy Information Administration) By around 1969 to 1970, America's domestic oil production had peaked to 9.5 million BPD but still could not keep up with the growing demand from transportation Because of that, the US began to import more oil to serve people’s demand Between 1973 to 1979, US crude oil imports nearly doubled, reaching 6.6 million BPD; 83% of the oil supply came from the Middle East while its production had declined 16% to 8.1 million BPD of global output 2.1.2 The conflict between Arab – Israel There has been Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East since the State of Israel was recreated in 1948 The Suez Crisis, also known as the Second Arab-Israel War, was listed among many battles fought between Israel and Arab countries (1956) During the Six-Day War, which started in June 1967, Israel invaded the Golan Heights from Syria, the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt which advanced all the way to the Suez Canal, forcing Egypt to close the canal for eight years, and East Jerusalem from Jordan Figure: Israel territory before and after the Six Day War, 1967 (Source: BBC News) Because of the desire to regain sovereignty, Egyptian president Anwar AlSadat and Syria (supported by several Arab nations) launched an attack against Israel which came to be known as the Yom-Kippur War After some deliberation, the leaders of Egypt and Syria decided to launch the attack on Israel at pm on October 6, 1973 At that time, Israel was unexpectedly attacked without warning Even so, everything remained under Israeli control, after a few days, Israeli military forces defeated the Syrian campaign in the southern Golan Heights About Egypt, the battle is more difficult for Israel, when facing the risk of losing, Israel has asked the US to be their ally because the US has a close relationship with the Soviet Union - the source of weapons for Egypt and Syria A $2.2 billion in military aid was immediately approved by the US afterward Israel adjusted its strategy at the time, holding back Egypt Surprisingly, at the time, the US had rising oil consumption, declining oil output, and rising oil imports, primarily from OPEC nations An oil embargo was announced during a conference in Egypt between members of the OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia Targets of the embargo were countries that had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War The oilproducing Arab nations viewed American political and economic support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War as siding with their enemy, and they sought to bring a harsh punishment Along with the US, many other developed nations were targeted as these countries were allies of the US, including Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom The embargo later expanded to Portugal, Rhodesia, and South Africa as well CHAPTER 3: THE 1973 OIL CRISIS ECONOMY EFFECTS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES 3.1 Energy Crisis: Effects on the globe in general The OPEC embargo demonstrated the new power of the cartels in the global economy and took many Americans by surprise as another example of their decline in the 1970s Once the embargo took effect, the price of oil per barrel first doubled, then quadrupled from $3 to $12 a barrel When retail gasoline prices climbed by as much as 40 percent in November 1973 alone, the impact hit American consumers in their wallets Fearing gasoline shortages, Americans lined up at gas stations to fill up, and gas stations raised prices several times a day Fuel Line revealed the panic that occurred during the embargo as motorists feared that if they didn't refuel today, prices could rise tomorrow Unsurprisingly, many gas stations were running low on fuel due to high demand, and late fall saw widespread "Sorry, no gas today" signs Western European countries and Japan, key US allies, which source 45-50% of their oil from OPEC, faced an even more difficult problem due to the embargo A global recession seemed to loom as the embargo coincided with the devaluation of the dollar.The US allies in Europe and Japan had accelerated oil stockpiles to provide short-term buffers, but high oil prices and the long-term prospect of recession have created a split within the Atlantic Alliance European nations and Japan found themselves in the uncomfortable position of needing US assistance to secure energy sources, even as they sought to distance themselves from US Middle East policy Faced with increasing reliance on oil consumption and declining domestic reserves, the US is relying more than ever on imported oil, amid difficult domestic economic conditions that help weaken its international influence, so they had to negotiate the end of the embargo 3.1.1 Energy Crisis: Effects on the economy In terms of just economics, the embargo and its effects had significant macro impacts The macroeconomic situation was made more difficult by the 1973– 1974 oil crisis, particularly concerning inflation 10 Since then, economists have known that a central bank can control how much supply shocks affect inflation, but there is a cost to doing so Higher oil prices tend to result in both slower growth and inflationary pressures because of the impact they have on commodities These forces often have an inverse connection over the short term, which means that as one increases, the other decreases, and vice versa The 1973 oil embargo was only one of many complex variables that caused American officials to overestimate the country ’s potential and underestimate their contribution to the widespread inflation that took place during the 1970s 3.1.1.1 The US According to reports, the price shock of 1973 caused the US economy to contract by almost 2.5 percent, increased unemployment and inflation, and plunged the country into a deep and protracted recession (1973 –1975) After decades of plentiful supply and rising use, Americans faced price increases and fuel shortages, which resulted in long queues at gas stations around the nation Local, state, and federal officials demanded energy-saving measures, requesting that gas stations close on Sundays and that residents forgo putting up holiday lights on their homes.”It continues to affect the standard of living of the populations of oil importing countries, where economic growth is still hampered by the fourfold increase in oil prices that followed the Arab Israeli conflict of 1973, and foreign policy, especially of the United States, is heavily influenced by the fear that supplies will be withheld” said by Geoffrey Kirk 3.1.1.2 Japan Japan faced two main challenges: the remarkable inflation and transition from one model of high economic growth to another 11 Figure: Compared Economic Growth Japan, US, United Kingdom; 1970 -1975 (Source: Procedia Economics and Finance) About the economic growth, in a comparison of the three nations, Japan, the US and the United Kingdom, we can see that the Japanese economy was the most affected, with a drop of nearly 10% to -1% in 1974, while the US had a 6% drop to -0.5% in 1974 and the United Kingdom had a decrease of 8.5% to -1.2% Figure: Compared Inflation Japan, US, United Kingdom; 1970-1975 (Source: Procedia Economics and Finance) Comparing the evolution of inflation in the three nations studied in the eighth figure, we can observe that Japan has seen the most overall growth in consumer prices over 18%, from 5% to 23.20%, whereas the US increased by over 9% and the UK by more than 7.5% The sharp rise in consumer prices was caused by several factors, including rising power costs The majority of Japan ’s electrical system was made up of thermal power plants that burned imported oil during the period of low oil prices Electricity costs rose dramatically as a result of the resource ’s increasing cost, surpassing those in other industrialized nations by a wide margin As a result, Japan ’s competitiveness was severely 12 harmed, particularly in some specific areas of aluminum electrolysis The years 1973 and 1974 also saw limitations on the usage of electricity As a result, new branches were to replace those that had been abandoned Following these occurrences, the government ’s major concern shifted to managing inflation The major government goal for 1975 was for inflation to fall below 10% As seen in the preceding picture, inflation was efficiently handled in the period following the oil shock, when it crossed the 23% level, and was near the official target in 1975, achieving 11% As a result, the Japanese archipelago saw 12% deflation, the United Kingdom had nearly 2% deflation, and the US consumer price index continued to rise The Japanese government’s attempts to reduce energy use and refocus the economy have paid off, with the recession being less severe than in the other nations studied It was critical for the Japanese that the primary goal of halting inflation was met For a country as reliant on crude oil as Japan, such a spike in prices was understandably reflected in its trade balance Internally, there were many factors, among which we list the following: the capital-labor ratio was declining; the total working hours were about to decrease due to declining employment and the expansion of free time In addition, the transfer of labor from less productive to more productive sectors had to come to an end Finally, several environmental investments that had been ignored until that point were about to be made 3.1.2 Energy Crisis: Effects on the industry 3.1.2.1 West European West European automobile customers turned away from larger, less economical vehicles as a result of the oil crisis The growth in popularity of small hatchbacks was the most prominent outcome of this change Before the oil crisis, the only significant compact hatchbacks produced in Western Europe were the Peugeot 104, Renault 5, and Fiat 127 3.1.2.2 The US They mark the beginning of an effort to test renewable energy sources Americans develop alternative energy sources, such as nuclear power and 13 renewable energy sources like solar or wind power, to lessen their reliance on fossil fuels To create alternatives to oil in the refinement of gasoline, the federal government eventually began to finance the development of ethanol from corn as well Car manufacturers started creating smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles (When oil prices declined, though, American buyers reverted to fuel-guzzling trucks and sport utility vehicles).The energy crisis not only significantly impacted consumer lives but also dealt a severe blow to the American automobile industry, which had for decades produced bigger and bigger cars and was now being outpaced by Japanese producers of smaller, more fuel-efficient models 3.1.2.3 Japan In terms of the effects of the first oil shock on Japan, the country ’s growing reliance prompted it to extensive research into preserving raw materials,energy, and substituting such products A new industry emerged, with the Japanese focused on integrated circuits, computer machines, industrial robots, electronic materials 3.2 Effects on human 3.2.1 Lost jobs Companies had to maintain high pay due to wage-price limits Thus they had to lay off employees to save expenses To increase demand, they were unable to decrease prices When people lost their jobs, it dropped Unfortunately, the Fed changed interest rates so often that firms were unable to make future plans Therefore, companies maintained high pricing, which made inflation worse Besides, they were also afraid to hire new workers, worsening the recession The lesson through history of US recessions that Fed officials have learned was they had to manage businesses ’ expectations of inflation Since that time, Fed representatives have consistently acted in the same way More importantly, they provide enough advance notice of their plans 3.2.2 Lower consumer confidence By driving up oil costs, the oil embargo made inflation worse and the US economy was particularly vulnerable at the time Oil production in the country 14 was at maximum capacity Additionally, the percentage of non-OPEC oil production compared to global output has decreased Lower demand and lack of confidence of consumers resulted from people having less money to spend on other products and services due to higher petrol costs Therefore, people were compelled to alter their routines, giving the impression that there was a crisis that the administration strove in vain to overcome For example, drivers were forced to wait in long lines and they had to get up before dawn and wait until sunset 3.3 Energy Crisis: Lasting impact Although the oil embargo was lifted in March 1974, the prices of oil were still high Besides, the consequences of the energy crisis lingered throughout the decade 15 CHAPTER 4: DISCUSSIONS 4.1 Evaluation of the Oil Crisis In fact, oil plays a crucial role in the global economy Besides, it is also known as the black gold of the world economy The 1973 oil crisis is considered the most unforgettable of the 1970s Specially, Japan was the most affected country and those who have experienced the oil crisis in the Middle East will never forget the long lines of people in front of gas stations due to the severe supply shortage and the high price of oil Moreover, it is also associated with economic recession and seriously affects the global financial situation The embargo rocked the oil industry and reduced supply The embargoed countries were able to convince oil corporations to sell them oil from alternative sources However, the widespread uncertainty brought on by the return of the regular supply led to a dramatic increase in prices Some people think that 1973 was pivotal It was a “turning moment in history for the layperson as well as for the oil man, for neither will enjoy the same energy lifestyle again,” the Oil and Gas Journal said on December 31, 1973 Others countered that the 1973 “oil crisis” was a brief stoppage in supply Despite the shock brought on by this interruption and any ad hoc regulations or other government responses to the immediate crisis, in their opinion, individuals would continue to consume energy in much the same manner as before 4.2 Practical research finding: Russia - Ukraine War When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, along with increased sanctions from the US and its Western allies, it disrupted the supplies of oil and gas to Europe As a result, it pushed the price of oil up and made the crisis spiral out of control very quickly After lots of weeks discussing and conversing, the European Union leaders finally decided that they would stop importing two-thirds of their oil from Russia This would put pressure on Russia to put an end to the war with Ukraine Moreover, a ban on transporting oil orders when by sea is also given to Russia 16 However, experts claimed that Russia had foreseen this, so they have cut oil and gas prices by 40% to find new customers Nowadays, India, China, and many other countries continue to buy oil and gas from Russia Therefore, the European Union oil and gas embargo against Russia will probably "go nowhere"! Russian crude oil is currently a hot commodity However, since the military campaign against Ukraine, most buyers have stayed away for fear of damaging their reputation or violating US sanctions and Europe The Russia – Ukraine War led to a significant increase in the world oil price by nearly 10 USD/barrel, which is now close to nearly 120 USD/barrel in just a few days While world supply has grown marginally, the exclusion of Russia, one of the world's largest oil and gas exporters, from the global energy market has sent oil prices soaring Finally, the most severe consequence is that global consumers have been traumatized due to the global energy shock Sudden shocks to commodity markets, such as the 1973 oil embargo or the current situation in Ukraine, have prompted a reassessment of supply security as well as the beginnings of longterm shifts in demand However, once political threats fade, supply traditionally returns to the most efficient trade routes and supply sources While acute shocks on a global scale might spark long-term changes in consumer behavior, those habits can become stagnant over extended periods of inexpensive energy The Russia-Ukraine crisis looks to be hastening Europe's shift away from fossil fuels, and the rest of the world is watching 17 C CONCLUSION The exaggerated extent of these consequences, rather than their limited influence, should be stressed in many cases, even if they turned out to be less lasting or far-reaching than those initially thought This argument has been made on several occasions in this essay It's possible that the findings were not enough from what was anticipated at the time but we can strictly state that the fundamental legacy of the oil crises for the Third World is a debt rather than a New International Economic Order Instead of ushering in a new era of wealth and growth for the top oil exporters, rising oil income instead brought about political unrest and, in some cases, economic troubles In the Middle East, focus has turned from Israel's security to the future of the Palestinians, but there is still no answer that may bring the two sides together However, each of these actual results is very important in and of itself Their total influence is significant, especially when combined with the economic developments frequently linked with 1973 Although it is possible to spot symptoms of change well before that year, 1973 has come to be used as a point of reference for a shift that, for many, only became obvious in that year It marks the transition from the postwar era of economic expansion, higher living standards (at least for those in the industrialized West), and a stable economic system to one of repeated recessions, accelerating globalization, and the detrimental effects of unemployment and inflation The prospect of decolonization has been replaced in the developing countries by escalating debt problems and growing poverty Historian Eric Hobsbawm once said that: ‘The history of the twenty years after 1973 is that of a world which has lost its bearings and slid into instability and crisis The year 1973 was a potent symbol of change, both in perception and reality, and the oil crisis adequately justifies inclusion in our series on historical turning moments It is irrelevant if there will ever be another oil crisis with comparable effects 18 D REFERENCES OECD Factbook; 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https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-17797-4_2 [Accessed November 3rd, 2022] 21 MEMBERS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Name Student ID Rating Phạm Thùy Bạch Dương KDQT48C1 - 0036 KDQT48C1 - 0009 Nguyễn Lê Minh Anh 100% 100% Lê Hương Ly Hoàng Bảo Lam KDQT48C1 - 0064 KDQT48C1 - 0051 100% 100% Phạm Tùng Dương KDQT48C1 - 0037 100% 22