Higashino yukitoshi ichimoku (eng version)

IFTA 23rd Annual Conference Friday, October 8, 2010 “Border Line” Pattern for the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Candlestick Chart) - Positioning with 26 Base Lines and Timing for Time Based Loss CuttingTime Cutting- Yukitoshi Higashino, MFTA Five Factors of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (hereinafter Candlestick Chart) S&P500 (daily chart: June 2009 to August 2010) (P) 1250 April 26 Conversion line Conversion line, base line, leading span 1, leading span 2, and lagging span are the five factors of the candlestick chart, and a chart showing those five factors is the “kinko hyo” (equilibrium chart) 1200 1150 Leading span 1219.80 Aug 1129.24 1100 1050 Feb 1000 1044.50 July 1010.91 Leading span 950 900 Lagging span Base line July 850 869.32 2010/9 2010/9 2010/8 2010/7 2010/6 2010/5 2010/4 2010/3 2010/2 2010/1 2009/12 2009/11 2009/10 2009/9 2009/8 2009/7 2009/6 2009/6 800 Ideal Top and Bottom Pattern in a Candlestick Chart Double bottom Double top c a 26 26 d b  The ideal period from a low price “a” to “b” and from a high price “c” to “d” is within 26 days Why? Bottom Pattern Shifting from Fall to Rise Stock price Ⅰ a 26 26 △ Starting from the expected low "a," the price falls to "b" which is higher than “a” and then rises, but in a period that exceeds 26 days b Ⅲ a × Within 26 days from the expected low "a," the price goes below "a" to "b" before turning upwards b 26 Ⅱ a ○ Within 26 days from the expected low "a," the price goes above “a” to “b” before turning upwards b Ceiling Pattern for Shifting from Rise to Fall c 26 d Ⅰ ○ The price goes to lower “d” than the expected high "c" within 26 days and then goes down × The price goes to the higher “d” than the expected high "c" within 26 days and then goes down △ The price does not exceed the expected high "c" and goes down after hitting "d" but in a period of over 26 days from "c." d c 26 Ⅱ c 26 d Ⅲ Important Points in Base line and Lagging Span ・ “Border line” - The ideal top-bottom pattern that introduces the daily change concept of “26 days” from the base line to the lagging span   Base line: the middle price between the highest and lowest price in the past 26 days including the current day (highest price in a period of 26 days + lowest price in a period of 26 days) ÷2 Lagging span: current day’s closing price projected into the past by 26 days including the current day What is the “Base Line”? DAX and base line (daily chart: March 2010 to August 2010) 6600 26 days April 26 6341.52 6400 6200 6000 5800 July 5809.37 May 25 5600 5607.68 Base line = (highest + lowest in the past 26 days)/2 On the following day, the same calculation is conducted by including the prices of the new day but excluding the prices of the oldest day in the base line calculation period 2010/10 2010/9 2010/8 2010/7 2010/6 2010/5 2010/4 2010/3 2010/3 * “26” used here is the important basic value in the concept of the kinko hyo (candlestick chart) 5400 What is the “Lagging Span”? SX5E and lagging span (daily chart: May 2009 to August 2010) 3200 Upturn Downturn Downturn Jan 11 April 16 3044.37 3027.14 3000 Aug 2849.45 2800 Nov 2600 2693.80 Feb 2617.77 Upturn 2400 May 25 2448.10 2200 A line connecting daily values in the past 26 days including today’s closing * “26” used here is the important basic value in the concept of the kinko hyo (candlestick chart) 2010/10 2010/9 2010/8 2010/7 2010/6 2010/5 2010/4 2010/3 2010/3 2010/2 2010/1 2009/12 2009/11 2009/10 2009/9 2009/8 2009/7 2009/6 2009/5 2000 What the “base line” means in the border line ・Base line: (highest in 26 days + lowest in 26 days) ÷2 Base line ○ Ⅰ Stock price a 26 b × Ⅱ a 26 b △ Ⅲ a 26 b When the price makes an upturn within 26 days from the expected low "a," the base line goes up in 26 days from the expected low "a," and therefore stock prices tend to go up When the price goes below the expected low "a" within 26 days from "a," the base line cannot go up and provides resistance to the increase in stock prices, which increases the possibility of the price going down When the price does not go down below the expected low "a" and makes an upturn after a period of 26 days, the base line moves sideways and then drops to become resistant to the rising of stock prices The softer the downtrend, the stronger the market (base line) Why is that? Stock price Base line When a dip to "b" is strong relative to the expected low "a," the leveling period of the base line tends to be extended In that period, if the stock price does not go back up and exceed the high, the high of the base line during the calculation period becomes lower, thereby causing the base line to drop again Ⅰ a 26 b When a dip to "b" is weak relative to the expected low "a," it is relatively more likely that the price will go up above the recovery high Therefore, the high of the base line during the calculation period go higher, and the uptrend of the base line continues, making it likely to create a stronger market Ⅱ b a 26 10 E Calculation after the Border Line (Setting of the Target) 3E E ＝ ＝ ＝ 26 800 1000 ＝ 50 950 750 900 E 850 ＝ 50 800 ＝ ＝ ＝ 26 3E 700 650 600  A rise from the second lowest bottom or a drop from the second highest peak is often accompanied by a gap  Double of the increment or decrement of the initial move becomes an equilibrium point 15 Equilibrium Point is the Arrangement of the Lateral Axis and Vertical Axis ・ Basic values (9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 51, 65, 76, 65 ＝ 83, 97, 101, 129…) ＝ Equilibrium point (important change day) 76 ＝ 42 ＝ Stock price ＝ No of days 26 ・ Equivalent values 168 ② 53+29-1 ＝ ③ 29+88-1 ④ 53+29+88-2 29 81 ＝ ＝ 88 116 53 53 ③ ② ① ④ Equilibrium point (important change day) ＝ Stock price 168 (53+29+88-2) ＝ 26 16 No of days Time Theory (Concept of Equivalent Value) V＝I V＝V V＝N N＝I N＝V N＝N 17 = I ＝N = = I ＝V = = = I ＝I Itochu Corp (8001, daily chart) January 2003 to November 2003 65 64 52 351 348 347 39 39 26 39 △ △ ● Low within 26 days 26 18 Nomura Holdings, Inc (8604、daily chart) November 2002 to September 2003 89 90 1803 1800 179 179 179 26 179 ● 26 19 △ Marubeni Corp (8002、daily chart) 26 High within 26 days March 2008 to March 2009 ● 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 274 129 20 260 AAPL UW (daily chart、Feb 2008 to April 2009) 48 ● 19.73 19.73 120 19.73 100 19.73 80 19.73 73.86 Sept 18, 2008 120.70 08/8/21 08/7/24 08/6/25 08/5/28 08/4/29 08/4/1 08/3/3 60 08/2/1 Jan 20, 2009 173 21 78.20 09/4/30 19.73 09/4/10 140 152.91 09/3/13 152.78 09/2/12 160 09/1/14 180 08/12/15 192.24 February 2008 to April 2009 08/11/14 May 14, 2008 08/10/17 200 48 08/9/19 ($) Sumitomo Metal Mining （5713、 daily chart ） 150(08.3.24) 45 151 1632 1626 46 270 77 270 1079 1092 1095 270 270 August 2008 to July 2009 26 22 Sumitomo Metal Mining （5713、 daily chart ） May 2010 to September 2010 26 26 23 26 NTT DOCOMO（9437、 daily chart ） October 2009 to August 2010 26 26 26 26 24 Deutsche Bank （ daily chart ） 70 € October 2008 to September 2010 2010.4.15 60.55 2009.10.15 58.37 60 49.78 50 58.29 2009.7.27 2009.6.5 8.6 52.60 49.62 8.6 40 8.6 30 8.6 8.6 95 25 10/10 10/8 10/7 10/6 10/4 10/3 10/1 09/6 09/5 09/3 09/2 08/12 08/11 08/10 10 09/12 189 15.38 09/10 ● 09/9 2009.1.21 09/8 20 SAP（ daily chart ） € 2007.9.21 43 42.08 August 2007 to Match 2008 ● 41 1.97 39 1.97 37 1.97 35 1.97 33 1.97 31 1.97 29 1.97 28.29 2008.1.22 83 28.31 26 08/3 08/3 08/2 08/2 08/1 08/1 07/12 07/12 07/11 07/11 07/10 07/10 07/9 07/9 07/8 07/8 07/8 27 Nomura Holdings, Inc (8604、daily chart) March 2010 to September 2010 26 ▽ 26 27 Mizuho Financial Group（8411、daily chart ） March 2010 to September 2010 26 ▽ 26 28 Caution This report is intended to provide information that helps the user to make proper investment judgments and does not aim to promote particular investments The data contained in this report are based on reliable information, but we not guarantee the correctness or integrity of the data The information contained in this report is meant for your own use It is prohibited for this report to be provided or redistributed to any third person, or modified or changed in any way It is also prohibited that copies or modified versions of this report be assigned or transferred to or used by any third person T&C Financial Research,Inc Yukitoshi Higashino y_higashino@tandcfr.com 29