Macro economy and Stock market 2022 – 2023 BSC Research 12/2022 |2 CONTENT 01 02 03 04 |3 MACRO ECONOMY 2023-2024 MACRO UPDATE: FORECAST 2023-2024 5YR AVG 2022 (15-19) Scenario 2023 Scenario 2024 2023 |4 Consensus 2023 2024 Min Max GDP (YoY%) 6.8 8.6 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.6 2.1 7.2 CPI (YoY%) 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.3 3.1 3.2 5.5 Export (YoY%) 12.1 11.8 8.5 12.9 10.6 13.6 Import (YoY%) 11.5 9.7 8.3 12.1 10.0 12.8 Policy rate (%) 5.65 6.0 7.5 6.5 7.0 6.0 22,665 23,615 24,400 24,200 23,900 23,700 24,800 24,000 USD/VND • Monetary policy: Tightening Inflation pressure + high global interest rate • Fiscal policy: Highest annual public investment value • Import/export : Slowdown as Global economic growth weaken • Exchange rate : Stabilize reasonable interest rate difference + tourism sector recovered Referred report: Vietnam economy recover ; Impact of declining interest rate MACRO UPDATE: SCENARIO ASSUMPTION Factors Scenario Scenario |5 Vietnam • SBV: monetary Policy Strongly tighten Tighten • MPI: Stimulus package Slowly disbursed Quickly disbursed • CPI High Normal • Corp-bond market recovered Slow Quick Global • Global economy slow down Strong Weak • Global inflation cooling 2H2023 1H2023 • Tightening monetary policy (FED) >5% in 2023 5% in 2023 • US Economy Recession Slow down • China reopening 2H2023 1H2023 • Ukraine War 2H2023 1H2023 • US - China tension High Low MACRO UPDATE: MONETARY TIGHTENING M2 YTD% |6 Credit growth YTD% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 20.0% 18.0% 12.00% 12.00% 16% 14.0% 10.0% 5.5% 16.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Scenario 2021 2022 2023 2024 2016 2017 2018 Scenario Scenario 2019 2020 2021 2022FC 2023 Scenario 2024 Government Target Scenario 1: Scenario 2: • High inflation • Normal inflation • Strict corporate bond regulations • Loose corporate bond regulations • High pressure on SBV monetary policy • Lower pressure on SBV monetary policy → credit growth and M2 growth < or = 2022 → credit and M2 growth are > 2022 Source: BSC, Fiinpro, Bloomberg MACRO UPDATE: HIGH INFLATION HEADWINDS |7 7.00 6.00 Scenario 5.00 4.2 % 4.00 4.4 3.00 3.34 2.00 Scenario Scenario 4.00 Year 2023 2024 2023 2024 3.10 1.00 4.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.1% Pork price +1.8% +0.4% +0.5% +0.6% Oil price +0.6% -0.2% -0.0% -0.3% CPI YoY 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/20 01/21 01/22 01/23 01/24 CPI Scenario Scenario Core CPI Government Target Scenario 1: • Electricity price (+8%) - 2023, • Medical service price slightly up (+15%) -2023, • Oil price at 96.3 USD/barrel (+17%, Global means) • Pork price at 80,000 VND/kg (+ 52% YoY) Scenario 2: • Electricity price, (unchanged) • Medical service (unchanged,) • Oil price at 82 USD/barrel (0%, Global low) • Pork price at 60,000 VND/kg (+14.5% YoY) Source: GSO, Bloomberg MACRO UPDATE: MONETARY EXPANSIONARY |8 SBV Monetary tools Monetary tools Easing Neutral Tightening Credit growth X Interest rate X Exchange rate X Required reserve X Open Market operations X Source: BSC, Fiinpro, Bloomberg MACRO UPDATE: CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE Issued by sectors Maturity time 400 300 250 200 150 100 50 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 - 2018 VND Thousands billions 350 |9 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Real estate Bank Electricity, water & petrol Financial services Travel and Leisure Construction and Materials Food & Beverage Cars and spare parts 36.9% 29.2% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 5.3% 15.8% 0.0% 35.1% 36.4% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 4.0% 7.4% 0.0% 32.5% 41.2% 5.2% 3.1% 4.9% 4.5% 0.8% 4.6% 42.3% 28.3% 9.8% 2.8% 3.8% 3.4% 4.0% 0.5% 46.8% 30.7% 5.1% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% 2.3% 1.8% Industrial Goods & Services 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% Basic Resources Personal & Household Goods Information Technology Chemistry Media Medical Retail Telecommunication Insurance 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56,921 51,549 282,830 458,778 775,888 Total value (VND Billion) Source: Fiinpro, Bloomberg MACRO UPDATE: CORPORATE BOND Bond issued by sector Construction & Materials Real estate Banks Financial Services Personal & Household Goods Food & Beverage Chemicals Basic Resources Industrial Goods & Services Health Care Technology Retail Communication Utilities Travel & Leisure Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Insurance Total 2020 15,376 193,953 129,760 12,727 7,282 18,234 100 6,669 7,624 152 300 250 135 44,849 17,468 2,500 1,400 458,778 2021 25,237 363,359 238,026 31,397 3,685 18,045 470 4,543 7,934 135 775 425 39,523 28,233 14,100 775,888 2022 6,024 82,680 133,775 15,374 2,332 5,278 940 1,230 4,510 489 1,000 2,531 3,108 7,234 230 266,734 |10 Maturity Year Maturity value Maturity Month 2023 367,175 18,154 6,348 20,706 25,264 157,646 37,970 89,631 44,495 48,038 45,678 34,693 10 18,592 20,758 11 17,893 14,163 12 49,347 1,447,548 Total 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 Total 400,014 233,604 64,403 69,450 30,703 Maturity value 220,603 Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research APPENDIX: CPI – Impact of pork price – Correlation Between Pork Price and Food Sector Pork price Base price (%) Changes in Food sector (%) Changes in CPI (%) 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 -4.6% 5.0% 14.5% 24.0% 33.6% 43.1% 52.7% 62.2% 71.8% -0.71% 0.77% 2.25% 3.72% 5.20% 6.68% 8.16% 9.63% 11.11% -0.16% 0.17% 0.51% 0.84% 1.18% 1.51% 1.84% 2.18% 2.51% |85 • Pork price has an impact of 8.1% on the food sector from the period 2015-2020 • Food industry has a weight of 22.4% among CPI good and services sector Source: BSC Research • Base Pork price: 52,400 VND/Kg (12/15/2022) Main content Main Slide 85 APPENDIX: CPI – Impact of Oil Price Brent oil price % Brent oil price USD/Barrel |86 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% CPI-Transportation % Brent growth Source: GSO, Bloomberg Scenario Year Brent oil price CPI Main content S1 S2 2023 2024 2023 2024 96.3 USD/Barrel 88 USD/Barrel 82 USD/Barrel 70 USD/Barrel +0.6% -0.2% -0.0% -0.4% Main Slide 86 APPENDIX: CPI - Impact of oil price - Correlation between oil price and transportation sector Brent price USD/Barrel 75 82 85 90 96.3 100 110 120 130 Change Base line (%) Changes in Transportation sector (%) -3.85% -0.28% 8.97% 15.38% 17.11% 28.21% 41.03% 53.85% 66.67% |87 Changes in CPI (%) -1.10% -0.08% 2.56% 4.39% 4.89% 8.05% 11.71% 15.37% 19.03% -0.10% -0.01% 0.24% 0.41% 0.46% 0.75% 1.10% 1.44% 1.78% • Brent price has an impact of 28.6% on the transportation sector from the period 2018-2020 • Weight: Transportation sector is 9.37% • Brent base price: 82.23 USD/barrel (12/15/2022) Source: BSC Research Main content Main Slide 87 |88 APPENDIX: Brent Oil Forecast Firm 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 99.6 87.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 101.2 110.0 90.0 99.4 92.9 80.0 Citigroup Inc 101.0 88.0 75.0 Rabobank International 101.0 99.3 103.5 105.6 Fitch Solutions Banco Santander SA MUFG Bank Commerzbank AG ABN AMRO Bank NV Market Risk Advisory Co Ltd 102.0 102.0 103.0 100.0 100.0 95.0 82.0 104.9 98.0 115.0 88.0 72.0 98.4 88.0 65.0 Emirates NBD PJSC 111.2 100.0 Westpac Banking Corp 94.5 87.4 Landesbank BadenWuerttemberg 96.0 87.5 MPS Capital Services Banca per le Imprese SpA 95.0 Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Capital Economics Ltd Natixis SA Deutsche Bank AG Main content 85.0 61.0 Consensus 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Median 101.0 96.3 88.0 85.0 80.1 Mean 101.0 96.2 88.8 87.6 76.5 High 111.2 115.0 103.5 105.6 85.0 72.0 65.0 61.0 Low 94.5 82.0 100.0 98.1 106.2 107.4 100.0 96.3 102.8 105.1 85.0 82.0 Source: Bloomberg 82.1 Main Slide 88 APPENDIX: Public Investment Project Disbursement situation |89 Detail Long Thanh International Airport as scheduled Accumulated disbursement around 9,887 bil VND, euqal to 43.26% amount planned for 2018-2021 (22,855 bil VND) 1H disbursement around 830 bil VND, equal to 17.81% amount planned for 2021 North - South Highway as scheduled 1H disbursement around 4,534 bil.VND, equal to 30.3% amount planned for 2021 Cao Bo - Mai son and My Thuan bridge as scheduled Cam Lo - La Son delayed due to extreme weather condition, epidemic, construction materials , clearance QL45 - Nghi Son, Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet, Phan Thiet - Dau Giay delayed due to supply shortage of construction materials QL45 - Nghi Son, Nghi Son - Dien Chau complete approval of accounting account contractors selected in order to begin construction around 6/2021 PPP delayed government capital disbursement Dien Chau - Bai Vot BOT contract signed Expected to begin in 5/2021 Nha Trang - Cam Lam BOT contract signed Expected to begin in 8/2021 Cam Lam - Vinh Hao BOT contract completed negotiation Expected to sign contract 5/2021 Main content Source: MOF, BSC Main Slide 89 |90 MARKET: 2023 Forecast % EPS 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18% 13 1,202 1,224 1,246 1,269 1,291 1,313 14 1,294 1,318 1,342 1,366 1,390 1,414 15 1,387 1,412 1,438 1,464 1,489 1,515 16 1,479 1,507 1,534 1,561 1,589 1,616 P/E Scenario Scenario EPS forward 93 99 P/E 11.0 13.1 VN-Index 2022 < 970 > 1,300 Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research Main content 90 (2) FOREIGN INVESTORS: Outflow Net trading value of different types of investors 12 months Cummulative Foreign Net Buy 80000.00 60000.00 40000.00 Foreign 48,894 Accumulate Buying Net Value (bil VND) 20000 15000 10000 5000 20000.00 Proprietary Accumulate -5000 Buying Net Value (bil -10000 VND) 0.00 -20000.00 -40000.00 -60000.00 -15000 -24,717.5 |91 Domestic -20000 Investors Accumulate -25000 Buying Net Value (bil -30000 VND) Banks Basic Materials Consumer 4,957 Goods Consumer 2,144 Services Financials Health Care -10,553 -14,906 -23,665 Industrials Oil & Gas Technology Telecommunic ations Utilities Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research Main content 91 APPENDIX: Sector Movements 135 Sector 115 95 75 55 35 Oil and Gas Consumer goods Telecommunication Banking Materials Pharmaceutical Community utilities Information Technology Industry Consumer service Finance % MKC |92 Change (MoM) P/E ±% P/B ±% Oil and Gas 2.07% -6.34% 6.38 -7.07% 1.00 -7.77% Materials 6.35% -1.63% 6.62 -0.65% 1.04 -1.61% Industry 11.47% 0.68% 12.56 -5.85% 1.63 0.73% Consumer goods 13.88% 2.65% 14.00 1.79% 2.55 2.32% Pharmaceutical 0.87% 0.91% 12.70 1.20% 1.49 0.54% Consumer service 4.00% -9.32% 356.07 -89.80% 2.94 -9.81% Telecommunication 1.48% -12.92% 17.71 -43.06% 2.03 -15.64% Community utilities 8.42% -1.98% 12.43 -3.05% 1.96 -0.82% Finance 22.52% -0.67% 15.73 -1.88% 1.66 -0.89% Banking 27.16% 5.63% 7.85 5.64% 1.44 5.64% 1.76% -1.58% 15.12 -1.45% 2.93 -1.75% Information Technology Notes: Data updated to 30/11/2022 Notes: Data updated to 30/11/2022 Main content Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research 92 CASE STUDY 1: Phụ lục Hình 07: VN-Index lãi suất, lợi tức TPCP 10Y từ 2017-nay Hình 06: VN-Index, Thanh khoản & dịng tiền NĐTNN từ 2000 - 1,600 |93 45,000 1,600 9.00% 1,400 8.00% 1,400 35,000 1,200 7.00% 1,200 6.00% 1,000 1,000 5.00% 25,000 800 800 4.00% 15,000 600 600 3.00% 400 400 2.00% 5,000 200 200 -5,000 GTGD KL (tỷ VND - RHS) Main content Back Up Slide NĐTNN mua/bán ròng (tỷ VND - RHS) VNI (LHS - điểm) 4/3/2017 1.00% 0.00% 4/3/2018 VN-Index LSĐH 4/3/2019 4/3/2020 LS bq LNH ON 4/3/2021 LS HĐ trung bình Big 4/3/2022 Lợi tức TPCP 10Y Source: Bloomberg, Fiinpro, BSC Research 93 APPENDIX: Sector Movements |94 135 115 95 75 55 35 Oil and Gas Pharmaceutical Finance Materials Consumer service Banking Industry Telecommunication Information Technology Consumer goods Community utilities Notes: Data updated to 30/11/2022 Main content Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research 94 APPENDIX: Treasury Shares and internal net buying 12 Month Treasury Shares Net Buy (Bil VND) Trading value of Internal Shareholders (bil VND) Nov-21 (74.0) (2,502.5) Dec-21 0.0 9,443.6 Jan-22 (251.5) 1,251.8 Feb-22 (268.4) 6,871.4 Mar-22 (289.5) (3,178.5) Apr-22 3.5 2,180.0 May-22 (144.1) (2,752.9) Jun-22 (0.6) 4,708.4 Jul-22 (375.1) (1,070.4) Aug-22 (604.0) 3,131.5 Sep-22 (3.5) (2,724.5) Oct-22 152.0 (1,902.3) Total (1,855.2) 13,455.7 |95 Source: FiinPro, BSC Research Main content Main Slide 95 APPENDIX: ETF AUM (Mil USD) Jan_22 Feb_22 Mar_22 Apr_22 May_22 June_22 July_22 |96 Aug_22 Sep_22 Oct_22 Nov_22 Dec_22 11M2022 Sum Total 2,980.29 43.67 (14.07) (36.72) 34.65 197.63 58.28 (16.61) (2.82) (6.15) 89.23 375.39 204.25 722.49 926.52 ETF ngoại 1,838.54 50.24 (0.26) (27.41) (17.75) 59.59 32.00 3.66 37.33 5.86 75.22 277.14 165.11 495.64 660.53 Fubon 642.88 50.22 0.93 6.65 13.91 100.74 47.38 17.03 10.96 5.46 54.74 114.71 30.71 422.73 453.44 VNM 372.95 - - (19.57) (6.36) (3.08) (2.26) (12.92) (0.74) (1.19) 21.34 39.18 31.41 14.40 45.81 FTSE 256.78 (0.52) (1.19) (5.69) (13.44) (3.34) (0.57) 7.76 27.86 3.28 (0.86) 15.77 11.12 29.05 40.17 Kim 106.08 - - - - (16.96) - (1.51) (3.17) - - 8.71 (12.93) (12.93) Premia 16.08 0.55 - (0.50) (0.46) - - - 2.20 (1.68) - (1.94) - (1.83) (1.83) iShare 433.35 - - (8.31) (11.40) (17.76) (12.54) (6.69) - - - 100.71 91.87 44.00 135.88 CUBS 10.42 - - - - - - - 0.22 - - - - 0.22 1,141.76 (6.57) (13.82) (9.31) 52.40 138.04 26.27 (20.27) (40.15) (12.01) 14.01 98.25 39.14 226.85 265.99 Diamond 683.22 (0.93) 17.66 18.60 40.21 130.04 38.36 (22.38) (37.61) (11.44) 12.00 63.87 34.50 248.39 282.88 E1 307.63 (12.34) (35.09) (19.05) 9.61 3.09 (12.77) (5.12) (8.75) (1.74) 5.89 22.24 0.91 (54.04) (53.13) Finlead 123.83 6.69 3.54 (8.87) 0.75 4.20 0.69 7.24 5.24 1.16 (3.79) 18.84 3.73 35.68 39.41 SSIVN30 2.85 0.00 0.08 0.00 (0.33) (0.00) (0.00) 0.00 (0.00) 0.00 - - (0.24) (0.24) VN100 9.12 - - (2.93) (2.93) ETF nội MiraeVN30 15.10 Notes: Data updated to 30/11/2022 Main content - - - 2.16 0.72 - - 0.98 - (0.10) (6.70) - Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research Main Slide 96 |97 APPENDIX: Stock dilution 2017 - 2022 Average outstanding shares Hose 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 6M2022 8.3% 19.9% 6.1% 5.9% 17.8% 4.1% By Sector Information Technology 18.1% 9.1% 8.8% 8.5% 16.2% 13.5% Industry 14.3% 11.7% 9.0% 3.4% 12.6% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% Consumer service 22.3% 18.3% 2.6% 1.1% 36.2% 10.9% Pharmaceutical 18.4% 1.3% 2.6% 3.3% 1.2% 4.1% Consumer goods 13.0% 7.5% 6.6% 5.9% 5.6% 2.4% 5.8% 19.4% 6.2% 10.1% 25.0% 4.7% 20.0% 29.3% 8.2% 6.5% 12.8% 11.2% Finance 4.0% 36.3% 6.5% 3.1% 21.3% 1.7% Community utilities 1.1% 4.3% 0.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% Oil and Gas Banking Materials Main content Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research 97 |98 APPENDIX: Corporate Bond Bond issued by sector Construction & Materials Real estate Banks Financial Services Personal & Household Goods Food & Beverage Chemicals Basic Resources Industrial Goods & Services Health Care Technology Retail Communication Utilities Travel & Leisure Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Insurance Total Main content 2020 15,376 193,953 129,760 12,727 7,282 18,234 100 6,669 7,624 152 300 250 135 44,849 17,468 2,500 1,400 458,778 2021 25,237 363,359 238,026 31,397 3,685 18,045 470 4,543 7,934 135 775 425 39,523 28,233 14,100 775,888 2022 6,024 82,680 133,775 15,374 2,332 5,278 940 1,230 4,510 489 1,000 2,531 3,108 7,234 230 266,734 Maturity corporate bonds (2023_2032) Maturity Year Maturity corporate bonds by month 2023 Maturity value 2023 367,175 2024 Maturity Month Maturity value 18,154 400,014 6,348 2025 233,604 20,706 2026 157,646 25,264 2027 89,631 37,970 44,495 48,038 45,678 2028 64,403 2029 69,450 2030 30,703 34,693 2031 20,758 10 18,592 2032 14,163 11 17,893 12 49,347 Total 1,447,548 Total Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research 220,603 98 APPENDIX: 2023 Calendar Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Main content Date Vietnam 16 19 20 24 17 25 17 18 ETF: ETF VNFIN LEAD restructure their portfolio Future VN30: Future contract expire Enterprise: Deadline for submission of Q4 financial statements ETF: VN30 review ETF: VNFIN LEAD, ETF VNDIAMOND review Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: Ishare MSCI review Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: VNM review 18 20 21 19 27 Tháng 16 17 June ETF: VNDIAMOND execute restructured transaction Enterprise: Deadline for submission of Q1 financial statements Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: VNFIN LEAD, ETF VNDIAMOND review Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: Ishare MSCI review Party Central Committee Conference Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: VNM execute restructured transaction Vietnam National Assembly Conference 18 20 21 25 18 26 15 16 ETF: VNFIN LEAD restructure their portfolio Enterprise: Deadline for submission of Q2 financial statements Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: VN30 review ETF: VNFIN LEAD, ETF VNDIAMOND review Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: Ishare MSCI review Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: VNM review 17 20 20 October 17 25 November 15 16 ETF: VNDIAMOND restructure their portfolio Enterprise: Deadline for submission of Q3 financial statements Future VN30: Future contract expire 13th Party Central Committee Conference ETF: VNFIN LEAD, ETF VNDIAMOND review Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: Ishare MSCI review Vietnam National Assembly Conference Future VN30: Future contract expire ETF: VNM execute restructured transaction Day |99 World 25-26 FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates MSCI: quarterly market indexes review 10 15-16 14 3-4 12 14-15 29-30 21 26-27 11 20-21 October 27 1-2 10 13-14 15 FTSE Russell: announces market rating for year-end period ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates MSCI: semi-annual market indexes review FTSE Russell: announces market rating for year-end period ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates OPEC: meeting FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates MSCI: quarterly market indexes review FTSE: Annually Index Review ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates IEA: annually meeting FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates ECB: họp cơng bố sách tiền tệ lãi suất FTSE Russell: announces market ratings for year-end period MSCI: announce market ratings FED: announces monetary policy and interest rates ECB: announces monetary policy and interest rates Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research 99