Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.Chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế và tăng trưởng kinh tế tỉnh Quảng Trị.DA NANG UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS NGUYEN TRUONG SON ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF QUANG TRI PROVINCE Specialization Development Economics Code 62 31 01 05 SUMMARY DOCTORAL THE.
DA NANG UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS NGUYEN TRUONG SON ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF QUANG TRI PROVINCE Specialization: Development Economics Code: 62 31 01 05 SUMMARY DOCTORAL THESIS IN ECONOMICS Da Nang, 2023 The thesis was completed at UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, THE UNIVERSITY OF DANANG Supervisors: Instructor 1: Assoc.Prof-Ph.D Bui Quang Binh Instructor 2: Ph.D Ninh Thi Thu Thuy Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Reviewer 3: The dissertation will be defended at the doctoral defence committee from University of Economics, The University of Danang on 2023 The thesis can be found at: - National Library of Vietnam - The University of Da Nang - The Center for Learning Information Resources and Communication INTRODUCTION Urgency of the topic Economic restructuring (ER) and its effects on the country's economic growth are a topic of great interest to many researchers and policy makers Therefore, in economic theory, economic restructuring is a criterion in assessing the development of the economy The basic theoretical foundation of these studies are Classical and Neoclassical Economic Theory From this foundation, there have been many empirical studies holding analysis in the specific case of different economies and different channels of impact Studies on the impact of economic restructuring on output growth through resource allocation on a transnational or national economy are numerous The influence of economic restructuring on productivity to contribute to improve the quality of growth is also the subject of many studies Economic restructuring promotes the efficient allocation of resources, with a focus on changing production technology Thus, the empirical studies are mainly selecting the national economy or the transnational region, the studies with the provincial economy are also available, but not many, and especially with the specific case in Quang Tri province Research results on this topic in Quang Tri will test and enrich this research area in development economic theory Over the past 20 years, Quang Tri province has had a constantly expanding economy, the growth rate is higher than the national average, the structure of the economic sector has changed in a positive direction and has quite good quality The internal structure of economic sectors has changed quite positively and follows different trends depending on each sector These changes have created change in the economic structure and promoted economic growth But the standard of the impact of economic restructuring in particular on economic growth in terms of increasing output through investment channels, improving the level of production technology and labor productivity in Quang Tri province are still necessary to be more specific This is a practical question that research on this topic needs to answer Economic restructuring is still an important condition in promoting economic growth of Quang Tri, towards the goal of turning Quang Tri into a fairly developed economy of Vietnam by 2045 In order to perform this, it is necessary to research on this topic to draw out the orientation of economic restructuring in order to promote economic growth in Quang Tri province quickly and sustainably This is the policy requirement for research Issues that need to be solved in theory, practice and policy have raised the need for research on the topic: “Economic restructuring and economic growth in Quang Tri province” The study objective General objective Develop a theoretical framework and use it to study growth, economic restructuring and the impact of sectoral restructuring on economic growth of Quang Tri province Detail objective - First, form a theoretical framework for the analysis of economic sectoral restructuring and economic growth; - Second, Analyze and evaluate economic growth through: (i) the scale and trend of changes in GRDP growth rates; (ii) economic growth drivers and (iii) mobilization and resource allocation of Quang Tri province; - Third, Analyze and evaluate the restructuring of economic sectors through (i) trends and changing characteristics of economic sector structure by output; (ii) changing the structure of sectors into economic growth; (iii) change the structure of the economic sector according to inputs - Fourth, analyze the impact of economic sector restructuring on the economic growth of Quang Tri province on three aspects: output, raising labor force and improving production technology; - Fifth, giving some policy implications to promote economic restructuring in Quang Tri province Object and scope of the study - Object of the study: The topic focuses on theoretical and practical issues on restructuring the economic sector to economic growth in Quang Tri province - Scope of the study: + Content: Focus on analysis and assessment of economic sector restructuring, economic growth and the impact of industry restructuring on economic growth One-way effects from economic restructuring to: (i) increase in GRDP output; (ii) technological level; (iii) Labor productivity + Space: Economy of Quang Tri Province + Time: The data used in the study from 2000 to 2020 Research Method 4.1 Research approach Research uses a variety of approaches to solve the problem That is the system approach, development economics All are detailed in chapter of the thesis 4.2 Research data This study mainly uses pre-primary and primary data Primary data mainly includes: Socio-economic data from the Statistical Yearbook of Quang Tri province, the Central Coast provinces of Vietnam from 2000 - 2020 The socioeconomic reports of the Provincial People's Committee, Departments of Quang Tri province These data will be collected and aggregated according to each content group of the research Primary data: To obtain primary data, the research uses the method of consulting expert opinion and surveying enterprise 4.3 Analytical method The objective and object of the research is to use a combination of many different methods Scientific significance of the thesis 5.1 Theoretical contributions First, an analytical framework has been developed on economic sector restructuring, economic growth, and how economic sectoral restructuring affects economic growth Second, this study combines qualitative and quantitative research with various approaches to this topic in Quang Tri province Third, the research results have shown the basic successes and limitations of economic growth in Quang Tri province Fourth, the research results have made specific assessments of economic restructuring associated with the characteristics of Quang Tri province Fifth, the results of the thesis have confirmed that the sector restructuring has a positive influence on economic growth 5.2 Practical contributions - new implications and proposals drawn from research result First, the implication of priority focus to promote economic restructuring to create prominent development Second, implications for promoting economic restructuring in a positive and effective way through rapid development of first-class economic sectors Third, the implication of promoting the economic restructuring towards the development of first-class industries in the direction of taking the province's advantages, and at the same time gradually shifting to exploiting dynamic advantages, focusing on improving efficiency efficiency Structure of the topic CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS ON ECONOMIC SECTOR STRUCTURING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH CHAPTER 2: RESEARCH METHOD CHAPTER 3: THE SITUATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF QUANG TRI PROVINCE CHAPTER 4: ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTOR RESTRUCTURING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN QUANG TRI PROVINCE CHAPTER 5: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BASIS ON ECONOMIC SECTOR STRUCTURING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 1.1 General issues on economic growth and economic sector restructuring 1.1.1 Concept and measurement of economic growth Concept of economic growth: Economic growth is a state of the economy in which output increases over time and is represented by an increase in the size of the economy's output such as GDP or GNP This increase needs to be maintained high and stable in the long term in line with the potential of the economy Measurement of economic growth 1.1.2 General issues on economic sector restructuring a Concept of structure and economic sector restructuring Concept of the structure of the economic sector The structure of an economic sector is the sum total of quantitative and qualitative relationships between sectors in the overall economy, showing the organic relationship and the interaction between quantity and quality for the different economy Concept of economic restructuring Economic restructuring is the change of economic structure over time from one state and level to another in accordance with socio-economic development and inherent condition but non-repeating the old state b The trend of economic sector restructuring 1.2 Theoretical basis on economic sector structuring and economic growth 1.2.1 Economic theory is related to the economic restructuring and economic growth a Models of economic growth: Engel's law of consumption and Fisher's law of increasing labor productivity Classical economic growth theory The theories in this classical growth model, although not directly showing the impact of economic structure on growth, have confirmed that the ratio of resource factors - resource structure is reasonable, growth will be guaranteed Neoclassical economic growth theory The Neoclassical theory of economic growth has shown that: Increasing accumulation, allowing investment promotion as well as economic restructuring but cannot maintain growth in the long term; depending on certain economic condition it is necessary to maintain a reasonable population scale; advancement in science and technology is the key to long-term economic growth due to its impact to positively change the economic structure The theory of endogenous economic growth This model has shown how to allocate resources of a fast and strong growing economy on the basis of high technology by promoting the efficiency of resource use, improving the quality of resources, especially labor, expanding research and development or, in other way, promoting their endogenous properties This allocation mechanism will direct development resources to those industries and sectors where productivity and resource efficiency are optimized The theory of economic growth based on export strategy This model, on the one hand, shows how the resources of the economy are allocated in the open condition, but also shows that the economic structure needs a change in this condition to meet demand in an open market as a factor to improve resource allocation efficiency This is the mechanism of economic sector restructuring to promote GDP growth and improve technology level b Theories of economic sector restructuring: Theory Of Dualism Theory of economic restructuring (Moise Syrquin) Balanced Growth Theory (Balanced growth) Unbalanced Growth Theory (Unbalanced growth) c Some comments drawn from the theories for the study: 1.2.2 Results of empirical studies on economic sectoral restructuring and economic growth 1.2.2.1 Empirical studies on the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and economic growth The research works, although approached from many angles, have shown the relationship between economic restructuring and economic growth Accordingly, the restructuring of economic sectors is associated with the allocation of resources among economic sectors in the direction of improving productivity and resource efficiency, thereby creating higher output Economic growth is the basis for increasing income, changing the structure of consumption, leading to changes in the production structure of economic sectors 1.2.2.2 Impact of economic restructuring on increasing output GRDP Studies are conducted in many economies of different scale and background, examining the influence of economic restructuring in general and the economic sector in particular on output growth in different approaches But he result is based on the hypothesis of economic restructuring as the driving force for growth through efficient resource allocation, increasing the productivity of the economy 1.2.2.3 Impact of economic restructuring on improving labor productivity World research conducted in different economies and backgrounds and with different methods has confirmed that economic restructuring changes the way resources are allocated, especially labor, to be used effectively between sectors, leading to a rapid increase in labor productivity 1.2.2.4 Impact of economic restructuring on production technology of the economy Studies have shown that economic restructuring under the influence of trends in technical progress and reasonable allocation of labor leads to the formation of highly specialized industries with modern technology and high digitalization Economic restructuring towards the development of high-tech manufacturing industries based on innovation is the key for long-term development CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER CHAPTER 2: RESEARCH METHOD 2.1 Situation of the study location 2.1.1 Natural condition The natural features in Quang Tri are considered both a potential and a challenge for the local economic development Geographical position is favorable, endowed with tropical climate, rich in natural resources are the basis for the formation and development of economic sectors 2.1.2 Socio-economic conditions of Quang Tri province 2.1.2.1 Economy in Quang Tri The scale of the economy has increased significantly, at current price increasing by 9.5 times According to comparative prices in 2010, the scale of the economy in 2000 was VND 3930 billion, VND 5959 billion in 2005 and VND 10912 billion in 2010, an increase of 2.77 times Accordingly, in the 20012005 period, the average economic growth was 8.7%/year and especially in the 2006-2010 period, the average growth rate was 10.6%/year In the period 20112020, the scale of GRDP still maintained its growth rate, the scale increased 2.4 times at current price and the average growth rate was nearly 6.4%, equal to the average rate of Vietnam in the same period In 2020, the impact of the pandemic slows down GRDP growth to nearly 4% Non-agricultural sectors such as industry and trade in services develop rapidly, promoting new impetus for economic growth and restructuring 2.1.2.2 The society of Quang Tri province Quang Tri is a province with a relatively modest population scale in the Central Coast region In 2020, it is 638.6 thousand people The labor force in 2020 is more than 350,000 people, an increase of 55.3 thousand people, an average of nearly 1% per year GRDP per capita in 2000 is 2.9 million VND, in 2020 is 53.19 million VND at current prices The rate of poor households by 2020 is only about 8.03% 2.1.3 The characteristics of Quang Tri province of interest: Quang Tri have the smallest area compared to the provinces in the North Central region 10 2.3 Analytical methods used in the study 2.3.1 Qualitative Analytical Method (1) Deductive method in reasoning: That is to conduct research in a way that considers from general to specific, successes and limitations along with the causes of this process in each specific condition of the province, in order to compare with other localities in the country (2) Inductive method in reasoning: Research, approach to solve problems from specific to general (3) The comparative method is used to assess the difference and gap in the level of economic structure of Quang Tri province with other provinces in the North Central region such as Thua Thien Hue, Quang Binh, Ha Tinh, Nghe An (4) Methods of consultation with experts (5) Analysis method of descriptive statistics: Method of graph and table of general statistics: Mean number method, relative number, correlation analysis, time series method… Method of output structure analysis; Method of analyzing the impact of economic sector restructuring on labor productivity growth - SSA 2.3.2 Quantitative Analytical Method This section presents the following analytical method Method to analyze the impact of economic restructuring on output growth On the basis of the above studies, to analyze the impact of economic restructuring on the growth of a locality, the author proposes the following model: lnyit = β0 + β1lnyit-1 + β2cdccit + β3Xit + εit (10) In which: i here includes level I industries such as agriculture, forestry and fishery, industry and trade - service industry; lnyit is the variable representing economic growth and yit is the added value of level I industry in year t; cdcct is the variable representing the economic restructuring of level I industry in year t Xit represents resources used in level I industry in year t; On the basis of consulting experts on this relationship, the author is suggested to have the variables yit-1, the results of production or the added value of industry 11 I year t -1; resource factors such as human capital or equipment fixed assets in labor Methods of analyzing the impact of economic restructuring on production technology From the above theoretical studies, it can be seen that the influence of capital on production technology - TFP is usually possible through the opening of the Neoclassical production function From here, the following (I) pattern can be formed: TFP = f (ER, VA, L, H, budget, dtcn…) (12) With: TFP shows that the total productivity factor of the province; VA is value added; H is the human capital of the economy; L is labor employed in the economy; budget spending, dtcn is spending on science and technology 2.4 The method of data collection 2.4.1 Secondary data collection method The data is aggregated from the Statistical Yearbook of Quang Tri Province in the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 The study also uses data from the Vietnam Enterprise Survey and the annual Vietnamese Enterprise Technology Survey of the General Statistics Office The period of the data will be from 2000 to 2019 2.4.2 Primary data collection method Method of consulting the opinion of expert, Enterprise survey CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 12 CHAPTER 3: THE SITUATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF QUANG TRI PROVINCE 3.1 The situation of economic growth of Quang Tri province 3.1.1 Scale and growth rate GRDP The scale of the economy is constantly expanding, the growth rate is higher than the national average However, the growth is not stable and decreases gradually, the economic position of Quang Tri in the Central Coast has not been improved 3.1.2 Growth dynamic of the economy The main economic sectors develop rapidly, creating new impetus for economic growth and economic restructuring 3.1.3 Mobilizing and allocating resources Investment capital: The amount of investment capital mobilized into the economy is increasing, contributing to the creation of physical facilities, promoting economic growth; mainly allocated to non-agricultural sectors and low efficiency economic sectors Labor: Having mobilized a larger number of workers, with better quality, higher productivity, but the distribution of labor still focuses on exploiting static advantages Production technology: Be improved more and more clearly by investing more in fixed assets, but still inferior to the common ground and the exploitation fiscal space is still quite large 3.2 Economic structure of Quang Tri province 3.2.1 Economic sector restructuring according to total output GRDP 3.2.1.1 Economic sector restructuring at level I according to total output GRDP In the past 20 years, economic sector restructuring at level I according to total GRDP output has changed in a positive direction and had quite good quality In the first 10 years, the change was clear and the quality was higher than the next 10 years 3.2.1.2 Economic restructuring at level II a The trend of economic restructuring within the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors: The structure of the first-level agriculture, forestry, and fishery 13 sector is changing in the direction of promoting the potential advantages of the fisheries of province, limiting forestry exploitation, but the quality is low and the variation of fiscal space in breadth is still small b The trend of economic restructuring in the industry – construction: The trend of industrial restructuring is based on the development of exploitable industries with great potential such as electricity and gas, processing and manufacturing industries, which have developed but need to have better supportive policies c The trend of economic restructuring in the trade and service industry: The restructuring in recent years is slow and low quality, the factors that promote change are fairly weak 3.2.2 Structure of economic sector according to growth rate GRDP 3.2.2.1 Economic sector structuring at level I under GRDP growth The structure of the level I economic sector under GRDP growth shows the role of the service sector in the economy, the contribution of agro-forestryfishery is quite modest 3.2.2.2 Structure of the economic sector level II under growth rate GRDP In the agriculture, forestry and fishery level I, the fishery contributes more and more to growth, although the agricultural sector makes a large contribution, it decreases gradually because the fishery space is exhausted 3.2.3 Economic structuring by input 3.2.3.1 Economic structuring by labor The labor restructuring is quite fast and more active than the economic sector restructuring of GRDP output, promoting labor productivity After a period of rapid growth, the quality of labor restructuring has slowed down 3.2.3.2 Economic structuring by capital Investment capital structure by province has changed, focusing on achieving industrialization However, there is an unreasonable allocation, limiting in the industry and agri-forestry development 3.2.3.3 Economic sector structuring by enterprise The structure of enterprises has changed, focusing on development of trade services However, same as the allocation of investment capital, the agriculture, forestry and fishery has not really attracted enterprises CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 14 CHAPTER 4: ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN QUANG TRI PROVINCE 4.1 Impact of economic restructuring to the increase in output GRDP 4.1.1 Descriptive statistics of the contribution of economic restructuring to the increase in GRDP output in Quang Tri province This situation shows that economic restructuring evidently affects the economic growth of Quang Tri province Economic growth is based on industry - construction The agriculture - forestry - fishery also contributes a part However, these changes also show that the trend of economic restructuring has promoted economic growth, but it also implies a lack of stability and sustainability when the contribution of the trade and services sector has not been significant Therefore, it also shows that there is a lot of potential for an economy based on this industry 4.1.2 Model and estimation method On the basis of the above studies and equation (10), to analyze the impact of economic restructuring on the growth of a locality, the author proposes the following model (13): lnyit = β0 + β1lnyit-1 + β2cdccit + β3hit + β4lnvcit +εit (13) But the economic growth variables of the previous year – lnyit-1và cdccit are endogenous variables According to Mankiw (2013), the output of the economy depends on the amount of capital of production, labor and the rate of investment to improve the level of technology for each economic sector, so the equation can be established ( 14) Economic sector restructuring depends on factors such as the savings rate of the economy for each industry, labor and budget expenditure for each economic sector (Bui Tat Thang (2006), Nguyen Hong Quang (2018)), so it is possible to establish equation (15) Lnyit-1 = β0 + β1 lnkit-1 + β2 ln1it-1 + β3DTCNit-1+ εit (14) cdccit = β0 + β1sit+ β2lnlit + β3bugetit + εit (15) In a system of simultaneous equations including 13, 14 and 15 Here the endogenous variables lnyit-1 and ERit are solved through the exogenous variables in equations 13 and 14 In this case, according to Zellner, A & Theil.H (1962) can apply the 3SLS estimation method 15 4.1.3 Definition of variables in models and figures 4.1.4 Estimated result The scale of the economy in the previous year has a positive influence on the economic growth of the next year with the regression coefficient of + 0.93 There are people who have a regression coefficient of +0.009 or positive effect This implies that when workers work in economic sectors with a better proportion of trained workers, growth will be stimulated Preparing fixed assets for employees of first-class industries has a positive effect on economic growth, which is also a factor in improving production technology Table 4.5 Estimated result Dependent variable lnyit-1 ERit hit lnvcit Model (13) with 3SLS Model (14) lnyit lnyit-1 3.954*** (0.716) 5.731*** (1.341) -17.087*** (3.279) lnlit-1 DTCNit-1 sit lnlit Bugetit Observations R-squared cdccit 0.930*** (0.033) 2.280*** (0.617) 0.009** (0.003) 0.078*** (0.018) lnkit-1 Slope Model (15) 0.175 (0.166) 60 0.82 32.183*** (6.113) 60 0.93 0.0008** (0.0003) 0.0397** (0.0150) 0.0141** (0.0051) -0.0445 (0.0453) 60 0.94 Note: in () is the standard deviation, ***, **,* are the 1%, 5% and 10% significance levels 16 4.2 Impact of economic restructuring on improving the productivity of the economy 4.2.1 Impact of economic restructuring on improving the productivity The results of analysis of the contribution of restructuring to labor productivity growth are divided into two components: a "static" component and a "dynamic" component Effect on static restructuring: is the contribution due to the impact of structural change through the movement of labor from a lowproductivity industry to a higher-productivity industry Table 4.9 Contribution of restructuring to labor productivity growth by "static and dynamic" components With the contribution of With the contribution of Overall Overall Labor Structural Labor Structural labor labor productivity transformation productivity transformation Year productivity growth (percentage points) productivity growth (%) growth rate growth rate within within “static” “dynamic” “static” “dynamic” (%) (%) industries industries component component component component (%) (%) 20002005 3.168 3.393 -0.297 0.072 100 107.10 -9.36 2.26 20062010 2.074 1.895 0.138 0.041 100 91.93 5.90 2.17 20112015 4.785 4.356 0.358 0.071 100 90.94 7.64 1.42 20162020 7.273 6.427 0.763 0.083 100 88.16 10.71 1.12 20002020 4.325 4.018 0.241 0.067 100.0 94.53 3.72 1.74 The impact of economic restructuring on labor productivity is mainly based on the "static" component, that is, the impact of structural transformation here due to labor migration from low-productivity industries or areas to higherproductivity industries or areas to the industry (primarily exploiting the static advantage of the economy) And the impact from the "dynamic" component due to labor movement from industries with low labor productivity growth rates to industries with higher productivity growth rates is very low (exploiting the dynamic advantages of the economy) 17 4.2.2 Impact of economic sector restructuring on improving TFP aggregate productivity a Metrics and definition of variables b Model and estimation method In this part, we will use the model (12) presented in chapter and implemented in detail below: Gtfpit = β0 + β1cdccit + β2lnyi + β3lnlit + β4hit + β5bugetTit +β6dtcnit + εi (16) With this method, the time element will be ignored and only pure data observations or cross-sectional data will be used A rough estimate is an OLS estimate on a dataset obtained from spatial features Therefore, then all coefficients are considered to be constant between different objects and unchanged over time This is also a limitation of this method The author continues to use the data regression estimation method with random effect (REM) and fixed effect (FEM) with the necessary tests and then uses Hausman test to select (REM) But the variable budget expenditure is endogenous and depends on the size of the economy - GRDP according to Mankiw (2013) Therefore, to process it, it is necessary to add the equation (17) budgetT = f(yi) and apply the two-stage regression method for the Table – 2SLS data c Analysis result and comment The regression coefficient of structural transformation has a positive sign, which means that economic restructuring has an impact on improving the level of production technology The human capital factor in industries – hit has a positive sign and implies that an increase in the proportion of trained workers in economic sectors will help improve the level of production technology The value of the variable rate of enterprises having technology improvement activities in the industry – dtcn has a positive value Provincial budget expenditure by sector – budget is positive in all three models This shows that an increase in provincial budget spending will contribute to improving the level of technology Labor factor is also positive in all three models This implies that an increase in labor contributes to an improvement in the level of technology 18 The scale of the economy has a negative impact on the aggregate productivity growth of the province Table 4.18 Estimated result OLS REM 2SLS REM- IV regression Dependent variable: gtfp cdccit 4.885*** (0.645) 4.885*** (1.056) 5.061*** (0.636) Lnyit -0.121*** (0.033) -0.121*** (0.029) -0.134*** (0.032) lnlit 0.944*** (0.12) 0.9441*** (0.099) 1.020*** (0.135) hit 0.039*** (0.007) 0.0394*** (0.0152) 0.046*** (0.010) bugetit 0.005*** (0.001) 0.0046*** -0.0014) 0.005*** (0.001) dtcnit 0.330*** (0.092) 0.330*** (0.148) 0.394*** (0.111) Slope -5.351*** (0.659) -5.351*** (1.012) -5.868*** (0.828) R - sq 0,983 0.9801 0.9798 vif 2.5 3.3 Durbin-Watson 1.02 1.14 60 60 0.000 0.000 N Prob>F Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data 0.112 Hausman test 0.1912 0.000 Note: in () is the standard deviation, ***, **,* are the 1%, 5% and 10% significance levels