241 In addition, the precariousness of water security in this scenario is alarming, as it is significantly worse than the base year (2014) and SC1, and only marginally better than SC2 This is primaril[.]
241 In addition, the precariousness of water security in this scenario is alarming, as it is significantly worse than the base year (2014) and SC1, and only marginally better than SC2 This is primarily due to the lack of sufficient investment in the water sector; meanwhile, the expansion of food production will only increase water and energy demands These would undoubtedly lead to a substantial increase in water intensity Moreover, water stress and efficiency will be further compounded by the overexploitation of underground water in agriculture and energy generation (e.g hydro and thermal power) Since energy is one of the main factors in water transportation and supply, water prices will increase in tandem with energy prices, decreasing water affordability Therefore, another key consideration for policy makers in SC3 is how to manage the increased costs involved in providing greater water access without significantly impacting water affordability and water stress These negative effects on energy and water security have the potential to eventually offset some of achievements made in terms of enhanced food securities for Vietnam in SC3 during the 2014–2030 period 7.1.4 SC4 -Water Scenario The SC4 Water Scenario (hereinafter, SC4) will result in a more than threefold increase in GDP, from US$ 131.5 billion in 2014 to US$ 383 billion in 2030 As such, the GDP in this scenario is 16% higher (US$ 52.9 billion) than that of SC1, 11.3% higher (US$ 38.9 billion) than that of SC2, and 10.6% higher (US$ 36.8 billion) than that of SC3 Moreover, total employment will rise from 52.7 million in 2014 to 193.9 million in 2030 The economic and population growth, together with energy and water related needs will have a considerable impact on energy, water, and food demands Figure 7-4: Trade-offs between Energy-Food-Water Securities: 2014-2030 (SC1, SC4) Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this study Notes: Values closer to the origin describe adverse security outcomes