Luận văn đánh giá hiệu quả kinh tế của việc dồn điền đổi thửa ở huyện sóc sơn thành phố hà nội0001

7149 LV ThS TRI ONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN A -A- kki NGUYEN THI MINH DANH GIA HIEU QUA KINH I E CUA VIEC DON DIEN DOI THUfA O HUYEN SOC SON- THANH PHO HA NOl « • LUAN VAN THAC SI KINH DOANH VA QUAN LY Ha Noi - 2012 MUC LUC • • DANH MUC CAC CHU’ VIET TAT DANH MUC BANG, BIEU DO, HINH VE TOM TAT LUAN VAN PHAN MO DAU X - PHAN NOI DUNG .4 CHVONG 1: CO SO LI LUAN CUA VIEC DANH GIA HIEU QUA KINH TE DON DIEN DOI THUA TREN DIA BAN HUYEN SOC SON, X X A - THANH PHO HA NOI • 1.1 Khai niem ve don dien doi thwa 1.1.1 Don dien doi thua 1.1.2 Don dien doi thua la tat yeu khach quan 1.1.3 Cac hinh thuc don dien doi thua 1.1.4 Nguyen tac cua DDDT 10 1.2 Hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thwa 13 1.2.1 Khai niem ve hieu qua kinh te 13 1.2.2 Hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thua 17 1.3 Danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thwa dwa vao CBA 18 / r y a 1.3.1 Cac buuc tien hanh danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thua (Van dung CBA) 18 1.3.2 Cac chi tieu danh gia hieu qua kinh te don dien doi thua 22 CHVONG 2: DANH GIA HIEU QUA KINH TE CUA VIEC DON DIEN DOI THUA O HUYEN SOC SON, THANH PHO HA NOI 25 2.1 Khai qqut ve hhuen Soc Soo, Ha noi 25 2.1.1 Vi tri Dia ly\ 25 2.1.2 Dieu kien tu nhien va dat dai 26 2.1.3 Hoat dong san xuat nong nghiep 30 2.2 Thirc trang cua viec don dien ddi thira & huyen Soc Son - Ha Noi 33 2.2.1 Thanh tuu cua viec don dien doi thira a huyen Soc San- Ha Noi 33 2.2.2 Ton tai, han che cua viec don dien doi thira a huyen Soc San — Ha Noi 43 2.2.3 Nguyen nhan cua nhirng ton tai, han che viec don dien doi thira a huyen Soc San- thanhphd Ha Noi 44 r r 2.3 Danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua viec DDDT a huyen Soc Son - Ha Noi 46 2.3.1 DDDT giup cho viec quan ly dien tich dat cong ich dung luat, hieu qua han 47 2.3.2 DDDT lam tang thu nhap cua cac ho 49 2.3.3 Don dien doi thira tac dong den viec thay doi cua ca cau thu nhap ndng ho 52 2.3.4 Phan tich chi phi - lai ich (CBA) de danh gid hieu qua kinh te cua viec A r don dien doi thira a huyen Soc San - phd Ha Noi 55 a 2.3.4.1 Danh gid hieu qua kinh te cua mo hinh cay vu lua va cay vu dong trirac va sau chuyen ddi 56 r \ 2.3.4.2 Danh gid hieu qua kinh te cua mo hinh lua - cd - thuy cam 59 2.3.4.3 Danh gid hieu qua kinh te cua mo hinh chuyen tha cd 61 2.3.4.4 So sanh hieu qua kinh te giira cac mo hinh sir dung dat vai hieu qua cay lua trirac ddn dien doi thira 63 CHLONG 3: MOT SO GIAI PHAP NANG CAO HIEU QUA KINH TE CUA VIEC DON DIEN DOI THLfA SOC SON - THANH PHO HA NOI 68 3.1 Can cir de xuat giai phap 68 3.1.1 Chinh sach cua Dang va Nha mrdc 68 3.1.2 Chi dao cua Chinh quyen 69 3.1.3 Thirc trang ddn dien doi thira tren dia ban huyen Soc San 69 3.2 Cac giai phap de xuat nham nang cao hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thua a huyen Soc San — Ha Noi\ 70 3.2.1 Chink sach cua Nha nuac 70 3.2.2 Doi vai chi dao 71 3.2.3 Chi dao thuc hien tren dia ban huyen 72 3.2.4 Thuc hien a cap xa va ho gia dinh 76 3.2.5 Cac giai phap khac 78 KET LUAN 80 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO PHU LUC • • DANH MVC CAC CHtf VIET TAT CNH - HUH: Cong nghiep hoa - hien dai hoa DDDT: Don dien doi thua NTM: Nong thon moi TP: Thanh UBND: Uy ban nhan dan DANH MUC BANG, BIEU DO, HINH VE DANH MUC BANG BIEU Bang 2.1: Gia tri san xuat cua huyen Soc Sun qua cac nam 2005-2010 30 Bang 2.2: Ty le gia tri san xuat cac nganh cua huyen Soc Son qua cac nam 2005-2010 31 Bang 2.3: Ket qua thwc hien DDDT tf huyen Soc Son 344 Bang 2.4: Thwc trang manh mun ruong flat tai cac xa nghien cwu trwoc thwc hien don dien doi thwa 35 Bang 2.5 Mot so ket qua chinh sau don dien doi thwa tf cac xa nghien cwu 36 Bang 2.6 Bat cong ich trwoc va sau DDDT cua cac xa thuoc dia ban nghien cwu 37 Bang 2.7 Binh quan dien tich flat nong nghiep/khau trwoc va sau DDDT 38 Bang 2.8 Dien tich flat giao thong, thuy lo’i trwoc va sau don flien floi thwa 40 Bang 2.9 Dien tich lua binh quan/ khau tai xa flieu tra 41 Bang 2.10 Tong hop tinh hinh thwc hien chuyen floi mo hinh canh tac tinh cua xa vung nghien cwu 42 Bang 2.11 Gia thau flat cong ich thwc te trwoc va sau don flien floi thwa 48 Bang 2.12 Mwc tang thu nhap binh quan cua cac loai ho trwoc va sau don flien floi thwa 50 Bang 2.13 Sw thay floi cua co cau thu nhap trwoc va sau DDDT 52 Bang 2.14 Hieu qua kinh te cua lua/nam trwoc va sau DDDT tai cac xa nghien cwu 57 Bang 2.15 Hieu qua kinh te cua mo hinh lua - ca - thuy cam tai xa nghien cwu tinh tren sao/ nam 59 Bang 2.16 Hieu qua kinh te cua mo hinh chuyen tha ca 62 Bang 2.17 So sanh hieu qua kinh te cua cac mo hinh trwoc va sau DDDT 63 Bang 2.18 So lwo’ng trang trai tai xa flia ban nghien cwu (Tinh den 31/12/20)1) 66 DANH MUC BIEU DO nong nghiep 32 BiSu 2.3: So sanh ty le gia tri nganh san xuat nong nghiep va cac nganh san xuat khac binh quan nam 2005-2010 32 Bieu 2.4: So sanh gia thau binh quan tru’d’c va sau DDDT 49 Bieu 2.6 Co1 cau thu nhap cua nong ho tru’d’c DDDT 53 Bieu 2.7 Co’ cau thu nhap cua nong ho sau DDDT 53 Bieu 2.8 So sanh thu nhap cua nong ho tru’d’c va sau DDDT 55 Bieu 2.9 So sanh gia tri NPV cua cac mo hinh tru’d’c va sau DDDT 64 Bieu 2.10 So sanh gia tri B/C cua cac mo hinh tru’d’c va sau DDDT 64 DANH MUC HINH VE Hinh 1.1: Mo hinh ve lira chon phuong an toi uu phan tich CBA 19 TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN * * * NGUYEN THI MINH DANH GIA HIEU QUA KINH TE CUA VIEC DON DIEN DOI THUA HUYEN SOC SON- THANH PHO HA NOI • • Chuyen nganh: Kinh te va quan ly moi truong TOM TAT LUAN VAN THAC SI Ha noi, nam 2012 PHAN MO DAU Ly chon de tai: Xu huong don dien doi thua xay dung, phat trien kinh te nong nghiep, nong thon tai Viet Nam dang dat thach thuc to lon cho san xuat nong nghiep Vi vay viec don dien doi thua la mot tat yeu khach quan xet boi canh cua co che kinh te thi trudng huong toi san xuat hang hoa, canh tranh va hieu qua kinh te cao hon Muc tieu nghien cuu De tai nghien cuu nham luan giai co so ly luan cua viec danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thua Ngoai de tai cdn nham danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua viec don dien doi thua o huyen Soc son, Ha noi tu dua cac giai phap nham thuc hien mo hinh don dien doi thua o huyen Soc son dat hieu qua kinh te Doi tuong va pham vi nghien cUu: De tai nghien cuu viec don dien doi thua o huyen Soc Son, Ha Noi Phuong phap nghien cUu: Tac gia thuc hien nghien cuu de tai dua tren phuong phap ke thua va thu thap du lieu so cap va thu cap, phuong phap chuyen gia, phuong phap dieu tra, nghien cuu thuc dia, phuong phap phan tich, danh gia, tong hop, so sanh - doi chieu va huong phap su dung cac mo hinh de tinh toan Dong gop cua de tai Tu co so ly luan, de tai gop phan lam sang to co so khoa hoc va thuc tien cua cua viec don dien doi thua Tu dua mot so giai phap nang cao hieu qua cua viec don dien doi thua o huyen Soc Son, lam tai lieu tham khao cho dia phuong 78 phai bo tarn ly ngai kho lam thu tuc vay von, va sau phoi hop vdi cac ban nganh doan the xa hudng dan de lam cac de an vay von ngan hang dung quy dinh va dat yeu cau 3.2.5 Cac giai phap khac > Ngoai viec tuyen truyen, van dong nhan dan, chinh quyen tham gia vao qua trinh DDDT, va thuc hien cac mo hinh san xuat mdi sau DDDT thi UBND cap xa, huyen cung can tuyen truyen, van dong va tao cac co che, chinh sach cho cac to chuc, doanh nghiep cung tham gia de gop phan nang cao hieu qua san xuat cua nong dan Cu the nhu: van dong va cd co che khuyen khich cac doanh nghiep che bien, xuat khau nong san de nham nang cao gia tri nong pham cua nong dan Day cung la mot khau quan trong qua trinh san xuat nong nghiep Chinh quyen cac cap phai tich cue cd nhung co che, chinh sach khuyen khich, tao co hoi cho ngudi nong dan vay von den san xuat Ngoai van dong, huy dong cac to chuc tin dung tham gia tich cue de giup ngudi nong dan cd co hoi tiep can vdi ngudn von Do la co so de san xuat hang hoa dien va co gidi hoa nong nghiep nong thon Tuu trung la nhung han che nam phuong thuc san xuat nong nghiep cua Viet Nam noi chung, va huyen Soc Son noi rieng hien gan vdi cai “vong kirn co” la thu nhap thap, ngheo nen thieu von de phat trien san xuat nong nghiep theo chieu sau, dau tu vao may moc cong nghe de tang nang suat lao dong, chuyen dich co cau nong nghiep, phat trien tieu thu cong nghiep va dich vu, dau tu vao ngudi de nang cao trinh do, Cung vi ngheo nen thieu tai san cd gia tri de the chap cam cd vay von ngan hang, nen kho cd the thoat ngheo, kho cd co hoi nang cao thu nhap va nong nghiep van giam chan tai cho, kho cd the tao va thu hut cac ngudn luc tai chinh dau tu cho phat trien nong nghiep nong thon Chung nao chung ta chua pha duoc cai “vong kim cd” thi nong nghiep nong thon cung nhu cac ho 79 nong dan cdn kho co the phat trien va khoang each giua nong thon vdi thi, giua nong nghiep voi cong nghiep va dich vu cang kho thu hep Ben canh nhung chien luoc chinh sach phat trien nong nghiep nong thon, co cau lai nen kinh te nong nghiep va co cau lao dong, thi bien phap trudc mat co the thuc hien de giai quyet van de von cho nong nghiep nong thon va nong dan chinh la tang kha nang tiep can von tin dung cho khu vuc thong qua xac lap co che thuc thi don gian va ro rang de rut ngan khoang cach giua chinh sach vdi thuc te trien khai Dong thdi, rat quan la can xay dung mot co che bao lanh tin dung cho nong nghiep nong thon va nong dan thay vi phai cam co hay “nop” giay su dung dat - tai san gan nhu nhat dang gia cua cac ho nong dan - nhu hien Tren day toi da de xuat mot so giai phap giai quyet nhung ton tai, han che cua viec DDDT de day nhanh cong tac DDDT dong thdi gop phan nang cao hieu qua kinh te cua viec DDDT d huyen Soc Son Tuy nhien de nhung giai phap thuc su dat duoc ket qua cao doi hoi cac cap den huyen, xa thon cung cac ban nganh doan the phai co su phoi ket hop chat che va can su chi dao quyet liet cua cac cap co tham quyen Dong thdi tu than nhung ngudi nong dan cung phai tu y thuc duoc dieu ma gop phan thuc hien dung su chi dao cua chinh quyen nham dat duoc hieu qua kinh te cho chinh minh va dia phuong tu chinh nhung manh ruong cua minh 80 KET LUAN Nhirng ket qua nghien ciru da dat duoc cua luan van Luan van da neu nhung cu su ly luan cua viec DDDT va danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua viec DDDT Tir cu sa ly luan ap dung vao viec danh gia hieu qua kinh te cua mot dia phuang cu the la huyen Soc San - Ha Noi Viec DDDT d huyen Soc Son da dat duac nhieu tuu to ldn Tir nhung tuu da dem lai hieu qua kinh te cua viec DDDT Ben canh nhung tuu, qua qua trinh nghien cuu phan tich, danh gia, luan van cung tim nhung ton tai, han che cua viec DDDT d Soc San, Tir de suat cac giai phap nham day nhanh viec DDDT d huyen Soc Son cung vdi nang cao hieu qua kinh te cua viec DDDT Nhung van de dat nghien ciru nhung chua thuc hien duoc, can tiep tuc nghien cuu them va o’ trinh cao hon Nhu tren da neu, luan van da phan tich duac ket qua, hieu qua kinh te cua viec DDDT Tuy nhien viec DDDT cdn rat nhieu van de can tiep tuc nghien ciru ma luan van chua thuc hien duac nhu: mat mdi trudng, xa hoi cua viec DDDT tac dong den Vi du nhu: O nhiem mdi trudng cang gia tang canh tac va chan nuoi tham canh tao ra: su dung qua nhieu thuoc bao ve thuc vat va thuoc tru sau tren dong ruong; thieu khong gian cho chan nuoi lam tang o nhiem mdi trudng song; he thong str ly chat thai chua thuc str hieu qua Mot thach thuc dat sau DDDT can giai quyet ma luan van chua de cap den la van de phat trien ben vung sau DDDT vdi su can bang giua Kinh te - Xa hoi - Mdi trudng Day chinh la muc tieu ldn nhat can dat den cua sir phat trien noi chung va cua cong cuoc DDDT noi rieng TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Tieng viet Bo Tai nguyen va Moi truong (2006), Thdng ke dat dai cd nude nam 2006, Ha Noi Chinh phu (1993), Nghi dinh 64/ND-CP 27/09/1993 quy dinh ve viec giao dat nong nghiep cho ho gia dinh cd nhan sir dung on dinh lau dai Chu Van Thinh va Ton Gia Huyen (2000), Nghien ciru nhimg dac trimg ca ban ve lich su dat dai va he thong quan ly dat dai a viet nam, Bo Tai nguyen va moi trudng Luu Van Thinh (2005), Nghien ciru thuc trang va de xuat quy mo hap ly sir dung dat nong, lam nghiep co hieu qua cua ho gia dinh Ha Noi TS Nguyen Khac Thoi (2008), Anh hudng cua qua trinh giao dat nong nghiep den hieu qua sir dung dat cua ho nong ddn huyen Thanh Liem, tinh Ha Nam, Tap chi khoa hoc dat Nguyen Thi Mai Thu (2005), Danh gid tac dong cua chinh sach giao dat ndng, lam nghiep on dinh lau dai den hieu qua sir dung dat cua ho nong ddn tren dia ban huyen Thanh Liem, tinh Ha Nam, Luan van thac si nong nghiep, trudng Dai hoc ndng nghiep 1, Ha Noi Tdng Cue Dia Chinh (1998), Bao cao chuyen de ve chuyen doi ruong dat ndng nghiep khacphuc tinh trang manh mun san xuat, Ha Noi Tdng cue dia chinh (1998), Hoi nghi chuyen de ve ddn doi ruong dat, khac phuc tinh trangphan tan, manh mun san xuat, Ha Noi Tong Cue Dia Chinh (2000), Nghien cuu tac dong cua mot so chinh sach den viec sir dung dat dai va mdi truang, Ha Noi 10 Tong cue dia chinh (2001), Ca sa khoa hoc cho viec hoach dinh cdc chinh r sach va su dung hap ly quy dat dai, Ha noi 11 Tong cue dia chinh (2001), Ban chuong trinh hop tac Viet Nam - Thuy Dien, Giao trinh Luat Dat dai, Ha Noi 12 UBND huyen Soc Son (2000), Quy hoach tong the phat trien kinh te xa hoi huyen Soc San giai doan 2001 - 2020 13 UBND huyen Soc Son (2007), Lap ke hoach sudung dat ky cuoi (2007 - 2010) 14 UBND huyen Soc Son (2010), De an xay dung nong thon mai huyen Soc San gia doan 2010-2020, dinh hudng 2030 15 UBND huyen Soc Son (2011), Bao cao sa ket 02 nam thuc hien ddn dien doi thua nong nghiep tren dia ban huyen Soc San (2009-2011) 16 UBND xa Tan Hung (2009), Bao cao tom tat du an cong trinh ddn dien doi thua nong nghiep xa Tan Hung 17 UBND xa Mai Dinh, Minh Tri, Tan Hung (2008), Bao cao chuyen doi ca cau cay den nam 2020 PHU• LUC • Phu luc 1: Phieu dieu tra nong ho (Danh dau “X” vao d lua chon) I Thhnnt in cCuun: Ho va ten chu ho: hhOn (xom) xa huyen Soc Sun, TP Ha Noi Danh sach cac vien gia dinh, tuoi, nghe nghiep: hhu nhap cua ho gia dinh cac nam qua (2006-2011) hhu nhap trudc DDDh hhu nhap Sau (nghin dong) DDDh hh (nghin dong) Noi dung Nam Nam 2008 2009 2010 Nam Nam Nam 2006 2007 Nam 2011 Trong trot Chan nuoi Tha ca, tom Nganh nghe dich vu Thu khac Tong thu Chi phi cua ho gia dinh cac nam qua (2006-2011) Chi phi tru’d’c DDDT Chi phi sau (nghin dong) DDDT TT (nghin Noi dung dong) Nam Nam Nam Nam Nam 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Nam 2011 Trong trot Chan nuoi Tha ca, tom Nganh nghe dich vu Chi khac Tong chi III Tinh hinh ruong dat cua ho gia dinh: Thdi diem gia dinh thuc hien DDDT: thing nam Bien dong quy mo ruong dat: Chia theo Nghi dinh Sau don dien doi thua 64/Cp Loai ruong, dat TT Dien tich (m2) Dat vu Dat vu Dat vu Dat ao tha ca Dat dau thau So luong thira dat Dien tich (m2) So luong thira dat IV To chtrc san xuat: Xin ong (ba) cho biet gia dinh co nhung thay doi gi ve to chuc san xuat triroc va sau thuc hien cong tac don dien doi thira dat nong nghiep A A •> Trudc ddn dien ddi thira Noi dung Sau ddn dien doi thua Co cau cay Lam dat - Thue may cay, btra - Thue may cay, btra - May cua gia dinh □ - Cay btra bang trau bo - Cay btra bang trau bo - Cuoc xdi thu cong Thuy loi Thdi vu gieo cay - May cua gia dinh □ - Cuoc xdi thu cong Tudi tieu Tudi tieu - Chu dong □ - Chu dong D - Ban chu dong □ - Ban chu dong □ - Theo sir chi dao cua xa - Theo sir chi dao cua xa - Tu bo tri cay r □ - Tir bo tri cay □ a > Xin ong (ba) cho biet nhung loi ich cua viec thuc hien chinh sach don dien doi thira dat nong nghiep: - Co nhung thuan loi gi bo tri co cau cay theo huong san xuat hang hoa? - Lam giam chi phi san xuat d cac khau nao? - Nhung lpi l'ch khac: + Co sir dung lao dong hop ly hon: co □ khong □ + Co dieu kien chuyen dich lao dong nong nghiep sang san xuat nganh nghe: co I—I khong I—I + Co dieu kien ap dunj^ien bo ky thuat vao san xuat: khong co V Chi phi dau tu’ va thu nhap mot nam cua ho gia dinh/Olsao bac bo 360m2) Truoc DDDT (nam 2009) TT Noi dung Giong cay Dien tich (m2) Nang suat (kg/sao) - San luong (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) Chi phi vat chat/sao -Gi6ng (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) - Phan chuong (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) - Phan Ure (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) - Phan lan (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) Sau DDDT (nam 2011) Lua Lua Vu Rau Lua Lua Vu Rau xuan mua dong mau xuan mua dong mau - Phan dam, kali (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) - Phan NPK (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) Thuoc trir sau (nghin dong) Chi phi khac (nghin dong) Chi phi lao dong (ngay cong) Lam dat Gieo cay Cham soc Thu hoach Cong khac •? r Tong so cong Thanh tien (nghin dong) Phi san xuat (nghin dong) Thue Thuy loi phi Dich vu bao ve thuc vat Tuot lua Chi phi khac VI Chi phi, thu nhap tir chan nuoi, nuoi thuy san va cac dich vu khac Chan nuoi Noi dung TT Trau, bo I Chi phi Giong - So luong (con) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) Ve thuc an: + Thiec an tinh (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) + Thuc an tho (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) + Rau xanh (kg) - Thanh tien (nghin dong) - Tien phdng trtr dich benh (nghin dong) - Cong lao dong (ngay cong) - Thanh tien (nghin dong/cong lao dong) Chi phi khac (nghin dong) II Thu nhap Sanluong (kg) Thanh tien (nghin dong) ■> San pham phu (kg) Thanh tien (nghin dong) Thu nhap khac (nghin d6ng) Lon Ga Ngan, vit Ao Viton Dich vu VII Gia dinh thuoc dien: ♦♦♦ Trudc DDDT Thuoc dien kha gia Trung binh Ngheo Doi kho □ □ □ □ ❖ Sau DDDT Thuoc dien kha gia Trung binh Ngheo Doi kho □ □ □ □ VIII Tinh hinh lao dong va viec lam cua gia dinh Tinh hinh sir dung lao dong nam cua gia dinh ❖ T rude DDDT Thua lao dong Thieu lao dong Du lao dong □ □ □ Du viec lam quanh nam Du viec lam thang Du viec lam thang Du viec lam thang ❖ Sau DDDT Thtra lao dong Thieu lao dong Du lao dong □ □ □ □ □ □ □ Du viec lam thang □ □ □ Du viec lam thang El Du viec lam quanh nam Du viec lam thang a Trudng hap thua lao dong gia dinh giai quyet nhu the nao? Di lam thue □ Chay cho □ San xuat nganh nghe □ Khong lam gi Q b Truang hap thieu lao dong gia dinh giai quyet nhu the nao? Ddi cong □ Thue lao dong □ Thue thdi vu □ * Theo y kien cua ong (ba) lam the nao de nang cao hieu qua cua viec su dung dat cua gia dinh hien nay: Xin chan cam on ong (ba)! Ngudi dieu tra Chu ho duoc dieu tra (Ky va ghi rd ho ten) Nguyen Thi Minh Phu luc 2: Mot so hinh anh minh hoa Anh 1: Dwong giao thong noi dong ciia xa Tan Hung sau DDDT Anh 2: Mo hinh nuoi thuy san cua ho ong Le Van Lien xa Mai Dinh Anh 3: Hinh thuc canh tac thu cong truoc DDDT Anh 4: Mo hinh lam an quy mo lon sau DDDT