gerald appel - technical analysis

[...]... so Judy has not been simply important to my life She has been my life Gerald Appel About the Author Gerald Appel has, since 1973, published Systertls nnd Forecnsts, a leading technical analysis publication Appel is legendary for lus work in technical analysis and market timing, including the creation of Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), one of the field's most widely used tools His numerous... 77th Work / 105 Dny Trnding with Short-Tenit Cycles / 106 T-Fornmtion: The Ultintnte Cyclicnl Power Tool? / 107 The Co~rstructioirc$T-Formations / 108 Aren 1 / 108 Aren 2 / 109 Aren 3 / 109 Aren 4 / 110 Ftirtlrer Exnirrples of T-Foritmtions, lnclrrding the Application of Synergy / 110 T-Fornmtions nnd M i m r Pntten~s Stock Movement / 111 of T-Fomtations and Longer-Tenn Time Periods / 113 Strpplementnl... 157 Mnjor Mnrket-Reversal B I ISip~nls/ 157 ~ The 197 0-1 979 Decade / 158 T h e 197 9-1 989 Decade / 159 The 198 9-1 999 Decade / 160 Post-1999: Mixed Results / 161 The Iden1 Scennrio / 163 Contents xvii 8 Advanced Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD): The Ultimate Market Timing Indicator? 165 Scope of Disc~rssio~l 166 / Tlle Bnsic Co~rstruction ofthe Mouiilg Auernge Conucrget~ce-Diuergeilce l~rdicntor/... Colritteryoi~tt/ 40 Obseruntio~ts/41 A Fhtnl Lotrg-Tenn Statistic / 41 S ~ r ~ r t n ~Upg / 42 bt 3 Moving Averages and Rates of Change: Tracking Trend and Momentum Tlre Plrrpose of Moving Averages / 43 Tile Ir~tcriiredinte-Term Movbtg Average / 45 Tire Long-Terrn 200-Dny Moving Avernge / 45 Using Weekly-Bnsed Longer-Tenn Moving Avernges / 46 Moving Averages ni~d Very Loirg-Pm Moving Avernges / 47 Moving Averages:... Stock Excltnnge Advance-Decline Line / 127 Relntittg to Advnnce-Decline Brendtlr Dntn / 127 Gerternl Ohseruations / 128 Clinrt 6.4: The Advnnce-Decline Line Between 2002 nnd 2004 / 129 Tlte 21-Day Rnte of Cltnitge of tlte Advance-Decline Line / 130 Overbought Levels / 130 Oversold Levels / 130 Brendtlt Patterns nt Brill Market Highs / 130 199 7-2 000: A Period of Brendtlt Trnnsition / 130 A Cltnnge in To~te/... Market Cycles / 99 The Voy Significant nnd Regular Four-Yenr Mnrket Cycle / 100 A n Intemtediate Mnrket Cycle with a Confirming Indicator / I01 How the Confirming Indicator Helps the Cause / 102 T h e August-September Cycle / 102 The October-November Cycle / 103 T h e November to Early January Market Cycle / 103 T h e January-March Cycle / 103 f The 18-Month Mnrket Cycle with a Rate o Chnnge ConFrnring... the Direction nnd Shengtlr of tlte Ctrrrettt btterntedinte Trend nnd Try to Project Nte Time and Plnce of tlte Next Interttredinte-Term Reversnl Aren / 221 Tlte Fottrth Step: Fine-Tune Your Interntedinte-Tentt Studies with Stttdies Bnsed on Sltorter-Tenn Dnily or Even Hourly-Market Rendbtgs / 222 Rententber Our Fnvorite Mtrttrnl Futtd Selection Strntegj! / 222 Lessons I Hnue Lenrned Dtiring 40 Yenrs... Movements 85 Cnlendnr-Bnsed Cycles in the Stock Mnrket / 90 Dnys of the Montlt / 90 Pre-Holiday Pnttern / 90 T l ~ Best nnd W o n t Months of the Year / 90 c Tltc Best Six-Month Period, tire Wont Six-Month Period / 92 Evnlrrnting the Tnb~rlntions/ 92 Tire Presidential StockMarket Cycle / 93 Coii~atents/ 94 Time Cycles: Four Days to Four Years / 95 Exnmple of Mnrket Cycles: The 53-Day Market Cycle /... Hitschler), New Directions in Technicnl Analysis (with Dr Martin Zweig), The Big Move, and Time-Trend 111 His company, Signalert Corporation, and affiliates, currently manages more than $550,000,000 in investor capital Appel has trained thousands of traders through his world-renowned video and audio tapes, seminars, and workbooks He recently taught a series of four-day international master classes on... selection, which should be very useful supplements to your market-timing arsenal - Risk: Reward Comparisons Between More Volatile and Less Volatile Equity Mutual Fund Portfolios - AVG % GAIN IN WINNING MONTHS AVG % LOSS IN LOSING MONTHS BASED ON VOLATILITY GROUPS 4 3 22 s, 2 5 0 : 1 < 4 J 8 8 1 8 5 I 3 2 1 WMl!LlNGRWP High-RiskFunds ,Low-Risk Funds Chart 1 1 Average Percent Gain in Winning Months and . Ltd. ~ ~~~ - Prarson Educaclbn de hlexico. S.A. de C V. I'earson tducarmn-lapan Penrson 1.ducatton Xlnlaysia. PIC. Lfd. - - For more information, please go to www.ft-ph.com Business. Movbtg Average / 45 Tire Long-Terrn 200-Dny Moving Avernge / 45 Using Weekly-Bnsed Longer-Tenn Moving Avernges / 46 Moving Averages ni~d Very Loirg-Pm Moving Avernges / 47 Moving. Volntility Model / 157 Mnjor Mnrket-Reversal BII~ Sip~nls / 157 The 197 0-1 979 Decade / 158 The 197 9-1 989 Decade / 159 The 198 9-1 999 Decade / 160 Post-1999: Mixed Results / 161