Did you know that your odds of dying from drowning are higher than the odds of meeting your mate on a blind date? That the odds a child has seen Internet porn are the same as the odds a person is right-handed? That nearly one in three adults believes in UFOs and nearly one in six has reported seeing one? Drawing from a rigorously researched trove of more than 400,000 statements of probability, based on the most accurate and current data available, The Book of Odds is a graphic reference source for stats on the everyday, the odd, and the outrageous—from sex and marriage, health and disease, beliefs and fears, to wealth, addiction, entertainment, and civic life. What emerges from this colorful and captivating volume is a rich portrait of who we are and how we live today.
[...]... statements of probability So, The odds of ” should be interpreted mathematically as The chances of ,” or The probability of ,” or, the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes This is a subtle but important convention to be aware of when using the odds in this book Its purpose is to be simple, accessible, and consistent with conversational English Traditionally, the term odds refers to the. .. have to know to whom it will happen—a person, any person As we narrow that definition (a farmer, a golfer) the odds will change Next, the statement tells us the parameters, or limitations, of the calculation In this case, there are parameters of time (a single year), data span (annual data from 2008–2012), and of place (US) In this book all odds are US odds, so we have left the geography off and the data... think of a fraction, with the first, lower number as the numerator, or top number in the fraction, and the second, larger number as the denominator, or bottom number So, “one in ten” literally means one-tenth, or a 10 percent chance Each odds in The Book of Odds expresses the probability that a specific occurrence will take place, given the number of situations in which that occurrence might take place... the sources cited Any change to these parameters, as well as the time frame used to collect data, may change the odds Some odds, such as those about the ideal fair coin toss coming up heads or tails, have no such parameters, and are considered true everywhere and any time because they are defined that way Odds, Probability, and Chances At Book of Odds we treat these terms as synonymous Odds are statements... went into creating more than 400,000 odds Each one can be compared to any other, and thus each part enriches the whole But what do we mean when we talk about odds? When we say, “My doctor says the odds are one in ten that the test will be positive,” we’re expressing probability In mathematical terms, statements like these put fractions into words When we say, the odds are one in ten,” think of a fraction,... refers to the ratio of favorable to nonfavorable outcomes So, a gambler might say, “A horse that is expected to win 25 percent of the races it enters has 3 to 1 (3:1) odds against or 1 to 3 (1:3) odds to win.” This is a great tool for a bettor who is attempting to calculate the expected value of a gamble However, this form can be troublesome for ordinary people trying to understand complex statistics “1... reflects the population under study, as well as assess the methodology of analysis, fairness of presentation of the data, explanations of variables and limitations, reproducibility of results, and quality of peer review Further, we examine the sponsoring body and those executing the study, looking to see if they have a vision or mission or mandate that might have had even a subtle influence on the findings... which is the latest way of attacking modeling and large data sets, has a great deal to say about the impact of the increasing number of “agents” in our world systems, and what this means about predictability and new sources of risk Statistics is divided into two camps, the frequentist camp and the Bayesians The former puts much reliance on past distributions, the latter on learning from new information... actions to be described from the time before their count began From this perspective what is in the sentence is what a perfectly prescient forecast would have yielded This we term the “future implicative.” From this perspective, the sentence becomes lively It invites the reader to imagine standing poised at the beginning of the reference period, wondering perhaps what will happen next Caveats Odds are... calibration—understanding odds in a larger context We also include those things we may not have experienced but whose likelihood we may worry about: misfortune, illness, death We have broken the odds of human experience into three large sets: destiny, actions, and the cycle of life Destiny is what happens to us Actions are what we do And cycle of life is a way of looking at the odds associated with the stages of our . because they are defined that way. Odds, Probability, and Chances At Book of Odds we treat these terms as synonymous. Odds are statements of probability. So, “The odds of . . .” should be interpreted mathematically. Starting with the population of women in 2002 who were of child-bearing years (15–44), the presentation identified the odds that one of these women was sexually active, the odds that she relied on. ten” literally means one-tenth, or a 10 percent chance. Each odds in The Book of Odds expresses the probability that a specific occurrence will take place, given the number of situations in which