Doctoral thesis of philosophy determinants of bilateral export flows in the world economic integration process, the case of vietnam (1986 2010) a gravity approach

DETERMINANTS OF BILATERAL EXPORT FLOWS IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC INTEGRATION PROCESS, THE CASE OF VIETNAM (1986-2010): A GRAVITY APPROACH A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In Economics and Finance Tung Tri Nguyen Master of International and Development Economics The Australian National University School of Economics Finance and Marketing College of Business RMIT University Feb 2015 Declaration I certify that except where due acknowledgment has been made, the work is that of the author alone; the work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify for any academic award; the content of the thesis is the result of work which has been carried out since the official commencement data of the approved research program; any editorial work, paid or unpaid, carried out by a third party is acknowledged; and, ethnic procedures and guidelines have been followed Tung Tri Nguyen February 25, 2015 i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis is due to the helpful contributions from supervisors, academic staffs and colleagues I am indebted to Associate Professor Dr Seema W.D Narayan, the senior supervisor, for her intensive supervision I, indeed, appreciate her instruction, suggestions, comments, editing, and care for every steps of this thesis The thesis started with useful research questions and appropriate motivation; however, it was in a difficult to select the best methodology to quantify these questions It was that Professor Dr Seema W.D Narayan has directed me to the relevant methodology amongst alternatives Moreover, I have drwan such important things from her supervision, in which the most important thing is her technique in doing a research I would also thank Dr George Tawadros, the co-supervisor, for his suggestions on the issue of methodology Dr George Tawadros is enthusiastic lecturer to provide feedbacks on the progress of thesis writing I would have great thanks to staffs from the School of Economics, Finance, and Marketing; and the School of Graduate Research for their supports during the whole period of this thesis The success in the milestones of this thesis has been attributed from useful assessment, comments from Dr Ashton de Silva, Associate Professor Dr Heather Mitchell In addition, I especially thank Ms Prue Lamont, Ms Kalpana Lalji, Ms Esther Ng, Ms Claudia Jorquera, and Mr Owen Shemansky for their supports and arrangements association with the administrative procedures I was also having passion in doing the research that has been encouraged from colleagues in School of Economics, Finance, and Marketing I would thank to their shares in studying ii ABBREVIATIONS ADF Augmented Dickey Fuller AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area APEC Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations ASEM The Asian-Europe Meeting BRS Baltic Sea Region BTA Bilateral Trade Agreement CEEC Central and Eastern European Countries CEFTA Central European Free Trade Agreement CEPII French Research Center in International Economics CEPT Common Effective Preferential Tariff CES Constant Elasticity of Substitution CIF Cost – Insurance - Shift CIS Commonwealth of Independent States EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FOB Free on Board FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product GSO General Statistic Organization - Vietnam IMF International Monetary Fund LSDV Least Squares Dummy Variable MED Mediterranean Region MERCOSUR The sub-regional bloc including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela MFN Most Favored Nation iii NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OLS Ordinary Least Squares PNTR Permanent Normalization Trade Relationship PPP Purchasing Power Parity SAARC The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SITC Standard International Trade Classification TCI Conformity Index of Trade UN United Nations US United States Of America VAR Vector Autoregressive Model ECM Error Correction Model VJEPA Vietnam - Japan Economic Partnership Agreement VND Vietnam Dong (Vietnamese currency) WLS Weighted Least Squares WTO World Trade Organization iv TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1.2 MOTIVATION OF THE DISSERTATION 1.3 AIMS OF THE DISSERTATION 1.4 RATIONALE OF THE DISSERTATION .6 1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION .8 1.6 SUMMARY CHAPTER .11 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE PERFORMANCE IN VIETNAM BETWEEN 1986 AND 2009 11 2.1 INTRODUCTION 11 2.2 VIETNAM’S KEY ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE LAST THIRTY YEARS 11 2.3 THE WORLD ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND TRADE RELATIONSHIPS WITH MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS 23 2.3.1 World economic integration process 23 2.3.2 Major trading partners .26 2.3.3.1 Trade with ASEAN 29 2.3.2.2 Trade with United States 32 2.3.2.3 Trade with Japan 33 2.3.2.4 Trade with European Union (EU) 35 2.4 SUMMARY 37 CHAPTER .39 LITERATURE REVIEW .39 3.1 INTRODUCTION 39 3.2 STANDARD GRAVITY EQUATION AND TRADE 40 3.3 THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS ON GRAVITY EQUATION .43 3.3.1 Complete specialization 43 3.3.2 Heckscher – Ohlin model (H-O) .55 3.3.3 Increasing return to scales and Monopolistic competition 61 3.3.4 Other trade theories and gravity equations 65 v 3.4 EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON APPLIED GRAVITY TRADE MODELS 68 3.5 CONCLUSION 77 CHAPTER .83 METHODOLOGY 83 4.1 INTRODUCTION 83 4.2 THE GRAVITY MODEL .83 4.3 MULTILATERAL RESISTANCE FACTOR 85 4.4 THE EMPIRICAL MODELS .89 4.5 ESTIMATION METHOD 93 4.6 PANEL DATA TESTS 96 4.6.1 Panel unit root tests 97 4.6.1.1 LLC unit root test 97 4.6.1.2 IPS unit root test 101 4.6.1.3 ADF – type unit root test .104 4.6.2 Panel cointegration tests 105 4.6.2.1 Pedroni test 105 4.6.2.2 Kao test 108 4.6.2.3 Maddala and Wu 110 4.7 CONCLUSION 112 CHAPTER .114 DETERMINANTS OF BILATERAL EXPORT FLOWS DURING REGIONAL AND WORLD ECONOMIC INTEGRATION – AGGREGATE ANALYSIS, VIETNAM (1986-2010) 114 5.1 INTRODUCTION .114 5.2 DATA 115 5.3 PANEL TEST RESULTS 118 5.3.1 Unit root tests 118 5.3.2 Co-integration tests results for bilateral export models 120 5.4 LONG-RUN RESULT ANALYSIS 121 5.4.1 Income groups 121 5.4.1.1 Nominal export estimation 121 5.4.1.2 Real export estimation 125 5.4.1.3 Multicollinearity amongst income-sourced variables 128 5.4.2 Regional groups 131 5.4.2.1 Nominal exports 131 vi 5.4.2.2 Real exports 134 5.4.2.3 Multicollinearity amongst income- sourced variables 139 5.5 SHORT-RUN ANALYSIS 144 5.5.1 Short-run estimation: Income groups 144 5.5.1.1 Nominal exports 144 5.5.1.2 Real exports 145 5.5.2 Short-run estimation: Regional groups 148 5.5.2.1 Nominal exports 148 5.5.2.2 Real exports 151 5.6 NOMINAL vs REAL EXPORTS 153 6.1 Comparison within the income groups 154 6.2 Comparison within the regional groups 155 5.7 A COMPARISON OF THE BILATERAL EXPORTS-GRAVITY MODEL BETWEEN VIETNAM AND SINGAPORE 158 5.7.1 Export performance and data description – Singapore 158 7.2 Methodology and Data testing .160 5.7.3 Bilateral export effects in gravity framework – Vietnam vs Singapore 161 5.7.3.1 Income groups 166 5.7.3.2 Regional groups 170 5.8 CONCLUSION AND REMARKS .175 CHAPTER .178 DETERMINANTS OF SECTORAL BILATERAL EXPORTS DURING THE WORLD AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION: AND EMPIRICAL STUDY ON 24 SECTOR, VIETNAM (1986-2010) 178 6.1 INTRODUCTION .178 6.2 DATA DESCRIPTION AND SAMPLE DIVISION 179 6.3 EMPIRICAL GRAVITY MODELS FOR EXPORTING SECTORS 181 6.4 PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS AND COINTEGRATION TESTS – SECTORAL ANALYSIS 184 6.4.1 Results of unit root tests 184 6.4.2 Results of cointegration tests for sectoral export models 191 6.5 RESULTS – ANALYSIS OF BILATERAL EXPORTS BY SECTORS 195 6.5.1 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories (s2-84) .196 6.5.1.1 Income groups 197 6.5.1.2 Regional groups 201 6.5.1.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .202 vii 6.5.2 Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials, (s2-33) 204 6.5.2.1 Income groups 205 6.5.2.2 Regional groups 209 6.5.2.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .209 6.5.3 Footwear (s2-85) .211 6.5.3.1 Income groups 212 6.5.3.2 Regional groups 216 6.5.3.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .217 6.5.4 Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations (s2-03) 219 6.5.4.1 Income groups 220 6.5.4.2 Regional groups 224 6.5.4.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .225 6.5.5 Cereals and cereal preparations (s2-04) 227 6.5.5.1 Income groups 228 6.5.5.2 Regional groups 231 6.5.5.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .232 6.5.6 Vegetables and fruit (s2-05) 234 6.5.6.1 Income groups 235 6.5.6.2 Regional groups 239 6.5.6.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .240 6.5.7 Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures (s2-07) .242 6.5.7.1 Income groups 243 6.5.7.2 Regional groups 246 6.5.7.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .247 6.5.8 Crude rubber (including synthetic and reclaimed) (s2-23) .249 6.5.8.1 Income groups 250 6.5.8.2 Regional groups 253 6.5.8.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .254 6.5.9 Cork and wood, (s2-24) 256 6.5.9.1 Income groups 257 6.5.9.2 Regional groups 260 6.5.9.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .261 6.5.10 Coal, coke and briquettes (s2-32) 263 6.5.10.1 Income groups 264 viii 6.5.10.2 Regional groups 267 6.5.10.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .269 6.5.11 Textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles, related products, (s2-65) 271 6.5.11.1 Income groups 272 6.5.11.2 Regional groups 276 6.5.11.3 Sectoral results vs aggregate results 277 6.5.12 Non-metallic mineral manufactures (s2-66) 279 6.5.12.1 Income groups 280 6.5.12.2 Regional groups 284 6.5.12.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .285 6.5.13 Manufactures of metals (s2-69) 287 6.5.13.1 Income groups 288 6.5.13.2 Regional groups 292 6.5.13.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .293 6.5.14 Power generating machinery and equipment (s2-71) 295 6.5.14.1 Income groups 296 6.5.14.2 Regional groups 299 6.5.14.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .300 6.5.15 Office machines and automatic data processing equipment (s2-75) .302 6.5.15.1 Income groups 303 6.5.15.2 Regional groups 307 6.5.15.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .308 6.5.16 Telecommunications, sound recording and reproducing equipment, (s2-76) .310 6.5.16.1 Income groups 311 6.6.16.2 Regional groups 314 6.6.16.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .316 6.5.17 Electric machinery, apparatus and appliances, and parts (s2-77) 318 6.5.17.1 Income groups 319 6.5.17.2 Regional groups 322 6.5.17.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .323 6.5.18 Furniture and parts, (s2-82) 326 6.5.18.1 Income groups 327 6.5.18.2 Regional groups 330 6.5.18.3 Sectoral results vs aggregation results .331 ix Table 6.16: Results of export sector “Chemical materials and products”, SITC, Rev.2 (x59) A Income groups (Dependent variable: lnx59) Upper High Income Group Constant ln YN Lower High Income Group Model 6.2 -13.190** Model 6.3 -7.377 Model 6.1 -70.811** Model 6.2 -15.468 Model 6.3 1.1 Model 6.1 -15.699 Model 6.2 -4.067 Model 6.3 -0.671 Model 6.1 -53.259*** Model 6.2 -7.177* Model 6.3 7.220*** (-3.184) (-2.111) (-0.820) (-2.359) (-1.566) (0.414) (-0.612) (-0.563) (-0.104) (-3.803) (-1.946) (8.217) 1.252 *** ln PYN 1.541 ** (2.532) 1.331 *** 1.347 (3.365) PTRADE R-squared F-statistic N (4.142) 0.251* -0.012 (0.590) (-0.016) (1.792) 0.705*** 0.678*** 0.448*** 0.502 0.523 0.572 -0.051 -0.029 -0.488*** (0.357) (0.428) (-1.222) (4.023) (3.698) (3.721) (0.920) (0.963) (1.125) (-0.262) (-0.139) (-2.851) 0.015 0.018 0.040*** 0.014 0.022 0.053*** 0.029 0.03 0.042*** 0.007 0.013 0.046*** (1.379) (1.596) (5.016) (0.799) (1.314) (8.143) (1.483) (1.641) (3.075) (0.681) (1.177) (8.393) -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.028 -0.023 -0.012 0.040*** 0.041*** 0.037*** 0.024*** 0.024*** 0.009 (4.259) (4.232) (3.315) (3.008) (3.043) (1.152) -2.570 *** 3.569 *** -0.766 *** (-20.797) DWTO (0.592) 0.143 -0.268 (47.018) DAPEC 1.313*** 0.335 0.105 (-60.926) DASEAN (4.377) 0.087 (-0.852) ln DIST 1.276 (0.599) (2.048) (1.727) *** 0.332 ** 1.600* ln DPYN VNTRADE Lower Middle & Low Income Group Model 6.1 -55.319*** (3.599) ln ERN Upper Middle Income Group 0.058 *** (-0.622) -1.720 *** (-30.964) 1.504 *** (18.670) 0.692 *** (-0.476) -1.361 *** (-20.183) 2.182 (-1.279) -0.375 *** (-15.153) -1.280 *** (-405.662) (-0.611) -0.621 *** (-22.596) *** (24.550) 0.679 *** *** (-17.950) *** (-12.227) 0.473 *** (11.917) (28.558) *** *** *** -0.172 -1.358 -3.647 (13.540) -0.159 (-1.028) -0.049 -0.060 *** (-28.558) 0.006 *** 0.524 *** 2.576 *** -1.622 *** (-16.045) -4.484 *** (-12.653) 2.935 *** -1.550 *** (-19.560) -4.050 *** (-11.922) 2.983 *** (28.558) (15.619) (15.682) (15.631) *** *** *** *** -0.054 -0.943 -1.023 -1.070 -1.754 *** (-74.816) 0.226 * (-13.333) -1.180 (1.702) -0.442 -1.275 *** (-3.962) *** *** -0.605*** (-4.362) -1.718*** (-2.989) (-3.045) *** 1.667*** 1.173 (3.714) 0.016 0.083 * (3.702) 0.127** (4.179) (-6.532) (-6.567) (-6.051) (6.051) (-6.051) (-10.229) (-10.037) (-10.135) (1.052) (1.856) (1.984) 0.78 0.757 197 0.78 0.756 197 0.765 0.74 197 0.762 0.706 75 0.752 0.694 75 0.732 0.671 76 0.736 0.701 152 0.736 0.7 152 0.734 0.699 152 0.743 0.714 100 0.741 0.712 100 0.699 0.666 100 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 439 B Regional groups (Dependent variable: lnx59) Asian Group Constant ln YN European Group Model 6.2 -10.493*** Model 6.3 5.120*** Model 6.1 -42.071** Model 6.2 -7.862 Model 6.3 -0.838 Model 6.1 29.175 Model 6.2 40.034*** Model 6.3 45.032*** Model 6.1 -150.801*** Model 6.2 -68.011*** Model 6.3 -35.305* (-5.954) (-3.851) (3.388) (-1.989) (-1.184) (-0.126) (1.507) (4.572) (5.689) (-2.955) (-3.177) (-1.810) 1.249*** 0.991** (6.817) 0.230 (1.800) 0.014 ** (2.223) PTRADE ln DIST DAPEC DWTO R-squared F-statistic N (1.959) 0.017 *** (2.862) (2.359) (2.264) (0.630) 0.353* 0.824 (1.887) (1.179) 0.3 0.105 -4.777 (-1.513) (1.429) (1.471) (0.582) (-5.523) (-5.489) (-5.272) *** *** *** 0.051 (14.277) -0.002 0.017 0.073 (-0.131) (-0.004) (1.250) (5.644) (5.992) * * 0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.003 -0.053 (0.698) (-0.107) (-0.069) (0.165) (-1.908) *** *** 1.631 *** -2.621 (-44.728) 0.888 *** -1.986 *** (-31.146) 3.713 3.695 3.909 *** 0.074 -0.053 *** -4.459 *** 0.284 *** -4.757 *** -0.187 (1.468) -2.675 0.431 (-1.174) *** 0.006 *** (2.501) -0.437 (1.360) *** 2.719** 0.273 0.005 (-39.803) DASEAN 0.252 * (0.762) 0.994** (6.858) ** 2.343** 0.302 (2.315) 1.342*** ln DPYN VNTRADE African Group Model 6.1 -53.684*** ln PYN ln ERN American Group 0.084 (11.835) -0.058 (-1.914) *** ** (-2.103) *** (1.159) ** 5.698** (2.634) (2.482) (2.000) -0.055 -0.057 0.026* (-1.442) (-1.536) (1.873) 6.789 0.103 ** * 6.318 0.105 (1.992) *** ** (2.067) (0.700) 25.451*** -16.816 -16.452 -16.831 26.967 (9,490) (14,723) (14,013) (8.602) (5.336) (5.789) (-18.172) (-18.123) (-20.418) 25.249 *** 0.031 -0.13 (10.946) (12.793) (-0.750) -0.605*** 0.019*** 1.144*** 3.513*** 5.636*** 5.496*** -5.950*** -5.836*** -5.295*** (-6.212) (0.316) (8.112) (29.887) (29.887) (29.887) (-9.271) (-9.275) (-9.299) -0.183*** -0.292*** -0.193*** -0.096*** -0.153*** -0.150*** 2.206*** 2.156*** 1.911*** -2.130*** -1.286*** -1.362*** (-4.456) (-6.905) (-4.440) (-6.287) (-6.287) (-6.287) (7.114) (7.108) (7.073) (-15.761) (-15.761) (-15.761) 0.798 0.78 252 0.798 0.78 252 0.76 0.74 252 0.605 0.531 140 0.605 0.53 140 0.592 0.515 140 0.723 0.684 99 0.722 0.683 99 0.725 100 99 0.562 0.44 33 0.572 0.452 33 0.492 0.35 33 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 440 Table 6.16 B: Estimated impacts on Vietnamese bilateral exports, the comparison between sectoral estimation and aggregate estimations for sector “Chemical materials and products”, SITC, Rev.2 (x59) A Income groups ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Lower middle and low Upper high income group Lower high income group income group (SMLMI) (SMHI1) (SMHI2) Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 0.457 0.393 -0.14 0.254 0.049 -0.007 -1.875 1.056 1.394 -0.202 1.276 1.313 0.251 -0.488 0.046 0.024 -1.754 -1.718 1.667 0.127 1.114 1.191 0.569 0.415 0.042 -0.032 -4.388 6.364 0.695 -0.234 1.252 1.331 1.600 0.087 0.040 -0.003 -2.570 3.569 0.692 -0.172 0.958 0.875 -0.352 0.198 0.058 -0.039 -3.652 1.541 1.347 0.143 0.705 0.053 -0.028 -1.280 -0.884 0.09 0.524 -0.054 B Regional groups ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Asian group European group American group African group (SMASIA) (SMEUROPE) (SMAMERICA) (SMAFRICA) Aggregate Aggregate High income Asia (SMASIAH) Low income Asia (SMASIAL) 0.653 0.671 0.870 0.157 0.034 -0.014 -3.797 4.598 0.489 -0.362 0.511 0.690 -0.017 -1.396 0.007 0.008 -2.514 -3.554 0.643 Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 1.249 1.342 0.353 0.252 0.051 0.005 -2.675 1.631 1.144 -0.292 0.833 0.796 -0.225 0.445 0.048 -0.022 -0.806 0.991 0.994 0.824 0.284 -0.002 -0.002 3.909 1.820 1.791 0.443 0.433 0.061 0.017 -3.140 0.302 0.273 -0.437 -4.777 0.084 -0.058 -16.816 1.100 0.962 -0.37 0.600 0.055 -0.023 1.220 2.343 2.719 0.431 6.789 0.026 0.103 26.967 2.499 -0.068 5.636 -0.153 0.438 -0.175 -5.950 2.206 -0.520 -2.130 Note: The bold coefficients are significant at standard levels: 1%; 5%; or 10%; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 441 Table 6.17 A: The top twenty trading partners of Vietnam with respect to bilateral imports and exports, sector “Rubber manufactures”, 1997-2010, SITC, Rev.2 (x62) Imports Exports Values Trading partners Total Thailand Japan China Malaysia India Rep of Korea Singapore China, Hong Kong SAR Indonesia Germany Russian Federation USA France Netherlands Philippines Spain United Kingdom Italy Australia United Arab Emirates Values (Current US$) Percentages (Current US$) Percentages 2,878,515,929 100.00% Total 2,858,276,230 828,736,426 28.79% China 941,728,466 492,022,381 17.09% USA 403,062,927 461,449,156 16.03% Japan 225,979,620 205,636,988 7.14% Malaysia 171,856,191 185,023,575 6.43% Australia 96,103,080 158,133,035 5.49% Brazil 92,908,399 111,292,176 3.87% Thailand 67,476,772 82,340,873 2.86% Iraq 53,491,455 81,745,662 2.84% Rep of Korea 49,458,588 48,271,187 1.68% Germany 48,043,794 37,963,727 1.32% Egypt 43,270,006 37,102,057 1.29% Mexico 41,028,926 25,565,559 0.89% Singapore 37,208,047 19,250,363 0.67% Argentina 33,935,941 18,049,148 0.63% Turkey 33,917,211 16,859,047 0.59% Indonesia 33,364,416 13,979,474 0.49% Italy 29,923,118 13,408,742 0.47% Netherlands 26,645,696 6,464,380 0.22% Colombia 26,467,853 6,034,537 0.21% France 22,269,757 Source: United Nation Trade Statistics, 2011 100.00% 32.95% 14.10% 7.91% 6.01% 3.36% 3.25% 2.36% 1.87% 1.73% 1.68% 1.51% 1.44% 1.30% 1.19% 1.19% 1.17% 1.05% 0.93% 0.93% 0.78% 442 Trading partners Table 6.17: Results of export sector “Rubber manufactures”, SITC, Rev.2 (x62) A Income groups (Dependent variable: lnx62) Upper High Income Group Constant ln YN Lower High Income Group Model 6.2 -4.664 Model 6.3 10.675 Model 6.1 -36.358** Model 6.2 3.073 Model 6.3 17.082*** Model 6.1 -49.746*** Model 6.2 -7.310** Model 6.3 1.217 Model 6.1 -85.897*** Model 6.2 -17.091*** Model 6.3 7.701* (-2.755) (-0.916) (1.524) (-2.198) (0.516) (10.843) (-2.875) (-2.063) (0.494) (-6.048) (-3.783) (1.734) 0.814 *** ln PYN 1.054 *** 1.120 (3.136) 0.831 *** ** ln DIST DWTO R-squared F-statistic N (7.095) * 2.150*** (1.944) -0.279 (7.881) 0.223 (-1.524) 0.089 (0.457) (0.325) 0.171 0.622 -0.466** -0.574** -0.896*** 0.347 0.358 0.4 -0.187 -0.24 -0.795 (0.299) (0.372) (0.561) (-2.276) (-2.556) (-5.327) (0.886) (0.878) (0.909) (-0.510) (-0.674) (-1.079) 0.022** 0.024*** 0.046*** 0.013 0.023** 0.048*** 0.001 0.013 0.038*** -0.006 -0.002 0.056*** (2.587) (2.755) (7.443) (1.390) (2.166) (10.136) (0.077) (0.675) (3.128) (-0.693) (-0.273) (7.825) -0.006* -0.005* -0.008*** -0.034*** -0.033*** -0.029*** 0.042*** 0.038*** 0.027* 0.033* 0.034** 0.003 (-1.881) (-1.788) (-2.928) (-4.310) (-4.083) (-4.006) (3.008) (2.706) (1.762) (1.892) (2.016) (0.166) -1.558 *** 1.958 *** (22.867) DAPEC *** 0.133 (-24.611) DASEAN 1.948 0.899 (2.064) -0.754 (-0.813) PTRADE *** (2.690) 0.829 (2.911) ln DPYN VNTRADE Lower Middle & Low Income Group Model 6.1 -32.213*** (3.422) ln ERN Upper Middle Income Group 0.679 *** -1.036 *** (-12.463) 0.590 *** (3.541) 1.744 *** -1.559 *** (-22.809) (-62.504) -0.691 *** (-174.599) (0.538) 1.596 0.098 -0.732 (0.968) -2.118 *** (17.214) (17.875) *** *** *** -0.328 (-7,967) -1.148 *** 0.08 (12.396) -0.167 -0.590 *** -0.290 *** (-11.264) -0.001 *** (-28.558) 0.000 *** -0.351 *** (-28.558) 0.036 *** 0.076 *** (28.558) -0.008 *** 0.107 ** (2.441) -0.211 *** *** (-4.573) -4.261 *** (-13.425) 1.200 *** -0.599 *** (-6.053) -2.966 *** (-13.821) 1.146 *** (13.469) (14.856) *** *** -0.413 -0.429 0.11 0.925 *** 1.628*** (0.712) (19.521) (26.766) ** *** -0.744*** 1.748 (2.283) -2.435 *** (-3.857) -0.607 (-7.142) (-2.878) 0.037 0.777*** (1.003) *** (3.738) -0.019 0.127 (-6.558) (-6.391) (-6.355) (6.051) (6.051) (-6.051) (-11.723) (-10.234) (-10.468) (-0.220) (7.098) 0.047 (1.599) 0.811 0.791 212 0.81 0.789 212 0.799 0.777 212 0.531 0.476 134 0.507 0.449 134 0.482 0.422 135 0.598 0.559 204 0.59 0.55 204 0.575 0.534 204 0.757 0.728 94 0.765 0.737 94 0.639 0.596 94 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 443 B Regional groups (Dependent variable: lnx62) Asian Group Constant ln YN European Group Model 6.2 -5.999** Model 6.3 7.018*** Model 6.1 -61.722*** Model 6.2 -11.035** Model 6.3 9.752** Model 6.1 -11.78 Model 6.2 7.927 Model 6.3 15.052*** Model 6.1 -69.416*** Model 6.2 -10.187 Model 6.3 12.921*** (-4.388) (-2.065) (3.677) (-4.655) (-2.587) (2.077) (-0.758) (1.575) (3.905) (-4.351) (-1.660) (2.926) 1.087*** 1.457*** (5.235) (1.628) 1.432*** (5.232) -0.264 -0.308 0.516 (-1.407) (-1.475) (-1.621) (2.663) *** *** *** * (3.483) PTRADE -0.003 -0.003 (-0.761) ln DIST -1.020 *** (-20.121) DASEAN DAPEC DWTO R-squared F-statistic N 0.862 (3.972) *** -0.947 *** (-21.645) 0.214 (14.706) -0.007 (-0.616) *** (1.239) (0.010) *** -0.252 0.060 1.645*** 0.005** (0.691) 0.028 (5.503) 0.433 (5.124) 0.153 0.026 1.646*** 0.528 (5.419) 1.179*** ln DPYN VNTRADE African Group Model 6.1 -43.439*** ln PYN ln ERN American Group * (-1.716) -0.707 *** (-10.779) -0.612 -0.017 (-1.766) -0.025 *** (-2.851) -4.041 *** 0.519 *** (2.630) -0.014 -0.025 *** (-2.774) -2.589 *** (-0.714) (-0.123) -0.527 -0.417 0.497 0.416 -0.199 (0.335) (-1.841) (-1.772) (-1.474) (1.019) (0.869) (-0.311) *** *** *** -0.016 -0.008 0.036*** (-1.625) (-0.830) (5.298) -0.027 -0.031 -0.061* (-0.988) (-1.166) (-1.957) *** *** *** (2.859) -0.025 ** (-2.519) 1.180 *** 0.029 (2.860) -0.025 0.034 (3.487) -0.027 (-1.222) -3.496 -0.511 * -0.02 0.064 0.029 (-1.420) * (4.684) -0.225 *** (10.448) -0.040 (-1.316) -2.964 0.047 *** * (-1.966) -3.743 *** (-14.032) (-17.190) (16.754) (-16.548) (-16.234) (-25.972) 0.906 1.046 -0.695*** (1,753) (15,965) (-13,670) ** (21.178) (2.733) (-2.454) -0.032 0.510*** 1.644*** -2.344*** 1.226*** -0.573*** -1.361*** -1.176*** -0.927*** (-0.798) (7.374) (8.491) (-29.887) (29.887) (-29.887) (-9.205) (-9.227) (-9.265) -0.116*** -0.199*** -0.300*** 0.064*** -0.033*** 0.016*** 0.535*** 0.453*** 0.346*** -0.387*** 0.049*** 0.038*** (-6.746) (-6.841) (-4.848) (6.287) (-6.287) (6.287) (7.195) (7.170) (7.122) (-15.761) (15.761) (15.761) 0.75 0.728 254 0.75 0.728 254 0.721 0.697 254 0.509 0.443 205 0.501 0.435 205 0.429 0.352 205 0.737 0.712 135 0.735 0.709 135 0.733 0.707 136 0.592 0.524 50 0.581 0.511 50 0.445 0.352 50 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 444 Table 6.17 B: Estimated impacts on Vietnamese bilateral exports, a comparison between sectoral and aggregate estimations for sector “Rubber manufactures”, SITC, Rev.2 (x62) A Income groups Lower middle and low Upper high income group Lower high income group (SMHI1) (SMHI2) income group (SMLMI) ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 0.457 0.393 -0.14 0.254 0.049 -0.007 -1.875 1.056 1.394 -0.202 1.948 2.150 0.089 -0.187 0.056 0.033 1.628 -0.744 -2.435 0.127 1.114 1.191 0.569 0.415 0.042 -0.032 -4.388 6.364 0.695 -0.234 0.814 0.831 -0.754 0.133 0.046 -0.006 -1.558 1.958 1.744 -0.328 0.958 0.875 -0.352 0.198 0.058 -0.039 -3.652 1.054 0.829 -0.279 -0.896 0.048 -0.034 -1.148 -0.884 0.09 -0.351 0.036 B Regional groups ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Asian group European group American group African group (SMASIA) (SMEUROPE) (SMAMERICA) (SMAFRICA) Aggregate Aggregate High income Asia (SMASIAH) Low income Asia (SMASIAL) 0.653 0.671 0.870 0.157 0.034 -0.014 -3.797 4.598 0.489 -0.362 0.511 0.690 -0.017 -1.396 0.007 0.008 -2.514 -3.554 0.643 Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 1.087 1.179 0.153 -0.252 0.026 -0.007 -1.020 0.862 1.644 -0.300 0.833 0.796 -0.225 0.445 0.048 -0.022 -0.806 1.457 1.432 0.005 0.516 -0.017 -0.025 -4.041 1.820 1.791 0.443 0.433 0.061 0.017 -3.140 0.528 0.433 -0.225 -0.527 0.047 -0.040 -3.743 1.100 0.962 -0.37 0.600 0.055 -0.023 1.220 1.646 1.645 -0.020 0.497 0.036 -0.061 1.046 2.499 -0.068 -2.344 0.064 0.438 -0.175 -1.361 0.535 -0.520 0.049 Note: The bold coefficients are significant at standard levels: 1%; 5%; or 10%; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 445 Table 6.20 A: The top twenty trading partners of Vietnam with respect to bilateral imports and exports, 1997-2010, sector “Iron and steel”, SITC, Rev.2 (x67) Imports Trading partners Total China Japan Rep of Korea Russian Federation Malaysia Thailand Indonesia India Singapore South Africa USA Belgium Turkey Germany Australia Philippines Spain Brazil Italy France Values (Current US$) 31,944,518,056 10,792,797,324 6,518,830,847 4,228,958,586 2,489,615,331 2,243,332,947 1,511,970,683 600,233,308 577,715,797 441,665,537 337,133,063 290,792,179 204,584,908 187,300,035 174,613,048 167,507,706 163,929,508 118,990,727 115,527,584 110,110,696 99,933,082 Exports Percentages Trading partners Values (Current US$) 100.00% Total 33.79% Indonesia 20.41% Malaysia 13.24% Thailand 7.79% USA 7.02% Japan 4.73% Rep of Korea 1.88% China 1.81% Cambodia 1.38% Singapore 1.06% Philippines 0.91% India 0.64% Turkey 0.59% Italy 0.55% Brazil 0.52% China, Hong Kong SAR 0.51% Netherlands 0.37% Belgium 0.36% Germany 0.34% Australia 0.31% Kuwait Source: United Nation Trade Statistics, 2011 446 4,184,947,864 606,491,919 489,102,395 431,093,574 341,427,184 318,348,658 307,776,101 229,372,309 222,792,130 165,809,496 135,997,421 128,586,335 103,484,182 85,679,897 61,675,358 58,216,747 42,553,224 39,922,707 37,570,884 35,985,381 29,184,519 Percentages 100.00% 14.49% 11.69% 10.30% 8.16% 7.61% 7.35% 5.48% 5.32% 3.96% 3.25% 3.07% 2.47% 2.05% 1.47% 1.39% 1.02% 0.95% 0.90% 0.86% 0.70% Table 6.20: Results of export sector “Iron and steel”, SITC, Rev.2 (x67) A Income groups (Dependent variable: lnx67) Upper High Income Group Constant ln YN Lower High Income Group Model 6.1 -50.076*** Model 6.2 -14.515** Model 6.3 -16.787*** Model 6.1 -23.291 Model 6.2 -15.682** Model 6.3 -15.427* Model 6.1 -38.389 Model 6.2 -2.487 Model 6.3 5.379 (-3.022) (-2.208) (-2.145) (-0.873) (-2.030) (-1.960) (-1.636) (-0.372) (1.347) 1.097 *** (3.425) ln PYN 1.248 0.993 (0.286) (2.063) 0.966* 0.008 (3.369) (0.012) 2.401*** PTRADE DWTO R-squared F-statistic N (1.247) -0.089 3.018* 3.235** 3.306*** -0.118 -0.122 -0.543** (0.923) (1.037) (-0.233) (1.913) (2.012) (2.787) (-0.422) (-0.425) (-2.083) 0.028** 0.028** 0.043*** 0.038** 0.042*** 0.043*** 0.031* 0.035** 0.053*** (2.110) (2.126) (4.344) (2.189) (2.820) (3.965) (1.860) (2.267) (4.290) -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.031 0.033 0.034 -0.030* -0.029* -0.027* (-1.829) (-1.768) (-1.731) -2.306 *** 1.634 *** (14.820) DAPEC (-0.569) 0.38 (-32.558) DASEAN 0.842 0.337 (-0.457) ln DIST (1.909) -0.084 (3.146) VNTRADE ** 0.192 *** ln DPYN ln ERN Upper Middle Income Group 1.009 *** (-0.305) -1.535 *** (-16.490) (-0.147) -1.239 *** (-10.898) 0.551 (-1.016) (2.342) 2.300 2.489 *** (14.536) (18.208) (17.481) *** *** *** -0.219 -0.410 -6.895 *** (-132.939) (1.284) -7.241 *** (-124.083) (1.343) -7.362 *** (-124.567) ** -0.215 *** (1.248) -0.462 -1.860 *** (-10.243) 4.344 *** (12.669) -0.990 *** (-28.558) 0.103 *** -1.114 *** (-28.558) 0.116 *** -1.128 *** (-28.558) 0.117 *** -0.762 *** (-10.084) 0.166 *** -2.343 *** (-19.930) 2.380 *** -2.414*** (-27.442) 2.221*** (10.929) (13.111) -0.009 -0.548*** (-0.199) (-11.233) 0.074 *** 0.346*** (-6.502) (-6.335) (-6.377) (6.051) (6.051) (6.051) (8.270) (9.207) (11.819) 0.803 0.778 179 0.805 0.78 179 0.799 0.774 179 0.751 0.703 82 0.75 0.703 82 0.751 0.704 83 0.675 0.634 144 0.673 0.631 144 0.661 0.618 144 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 447 B Regional groups (Dependent variable: lnx67) Asian Group Constant ln YN European Group Model 6.1 -18.532* Model 6.2 2.419 Model 6.3 7.005*** Model 6.1 -91.227*** Model 6.2 -33.068*** Model 6.3 -36.134*** Model 6.1 -82.065*** Model 6.2 -35.660*** Model 6.3 -26.163** (-1.704) (0.724) (3.805) (-3.147) (-3.460) (-3.447) (-2.991) (-2.782) (-2.130) 0.602*** 1.733*** (2.729) VNTRADE PTRADE -0.301 DAPEC DWTO R-squared F-statistic N (2.473) (2.817) -0.611 *** (-3.846) *** *** 0.044 (5.230) (5.751) * * -0.010 -1.814 *** 1.003 *** -0.010 (-1.911) -1.795 *** (-43.526) 0.628 *** (2.005) 2.803*** (-1.708) (-40.577) DASEAN (2.872) *** 0.042 1.210** 0.621** (-1.744) (-1.962) ln DIST -0.297 * (2.295) 1.863*** (2.670) ln DPYN * 1.292** (2.762) 0.634*** ln PYN ln ERN American Group 0.057 (13.181) -0.010 * (-1.972) -1.563 *** (-66.142) 0.514 * 0.177 (0.403) 3.791*** 1.356 1.768 (1.379) (1.419) (1.901) (2.189) (2.200) (2.735) 0.007 0.007 0.019 0.008 0.014 0.040*** (0.330) (0.320) (1.007) (0.435) (0.845) (3.882) 0.023 0.024 0.037 0.005 0.003 -0.014 (0.734) (0.787) (1.139) (0.135) (0.068) -6.505 -4.294 *** -9.336 *** 9.065 *** 3.135 ** 1.329 *** 3.086 ** 11.295 *** (-0.379) 12.073*** (-44.235) (-10.899) (-16.408) (18.527) (23.056) (18.572) *** (19.961) (18.901) (12.461) -0.246*** 0.081* -0.095*** -1.197*** 3.206*** 4.631*** 3.141*** 3.143*** 4.176*** (-5.143) (1.883) (-3.092) (-29.887) (29.887) (29.887) (9.317) (9.332) (9.299) -0.213*** -0.255*** -0.139*** 0.033*** -0.087*** -0.126*** -1.112*** -1.094*** -1.506*** (-7.872) (-8.126) (-4.922) (6.287) (-6.287) (-6.287) (-7.042) (-7.016) (-7.072) 0.655 0.627 250 0.655 0.626 250 0.654 0.625 250 0.634 0.546 115 0.636 0.549 115 0.635 0.548 115 0.736 0.702 97 0.732 0.698 97 0.72 0.685 98 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 448 Table 6.20 B: Estimated impacts on Vietnamese bilateral exports, a comparison between sectoral and aggregate estimations A Income groups Lower middle and low Upper high income group Lower high income group (SMHI1) (SMHI2) income group (SMLMI) ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 0.457 0.393 -0.14 0.254 0.049 -0.007 -1.875 1.056 1.394 -0.202 - 1.114 1.191 0.569 0.415 0.042 -0.032 -4.388 6.364 0.695 -0.234 1.097 1.248 2.401 0.337 0.043 -0.002 -2.306 1.634 2.489 -0.462 0.958 0.875 -0.352 0.198 0.058 -0.039 -3.652 0.192 0.008 -0.084 3.306 0.043 0.031 -7.362 -0.884 0.09 -1.114 0.117 B Regional groups ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Asian group European group American group African group (SMASIA) (SMEUROPE) (SMAMERICA) (SMAFRICA) Aggregate Aggregate High income Asia (SMASIAH) Low income Asia (SMASIAL) 0.653 0.671 0.870 0.157 0.034 -0.014 -3.797 4.598 0.489 -0.362 0.511 0.690 -0.017 -1.396 0.007 0.008 -2.514 -3.554 0.643 Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 0.602 0.634 0.621 -0.611 0.057 -0.010 -1.814 1.003 -0.246 -0.255 0.833 0.796 -0.225 0.445 0.048 -0.022 -0.806 1.733 1.863 2.803 1.768 0.019 0.023 -6.505 1.820 1.791 0.443 0.433 0.061 0.017 -3.140 1.292 1.210 0.177 3.791 0.040 0.005 9.065 1.100 0.962 -0.37 0.600 0.055 -0.023 1.220 - 2.499 -0.068 4.631 -0.126 0.438 -0.175 4.176 -1.506 -0.520 - Note: The bold coefficients are significant at standard levels: 1%; 5%; or 10%; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 449 Table 6.26 A: The top twenty trading partners of Vietnam with respect to bilateral imports and exports, 1997-2010, sector “Road vehicles”, SITC, Rev.2 (x78) Imports Trading partners Total Rep of Korea China Japan Thailand USA China, Hong Kong SAR Netherlands Indonesia Italy Germany Singapore Russian Federation Philippines Argentina United Arab Emirates Malaysia Turkey United Kingdom India Australia Values (Current US$) 21,947,802,561 4,979,992,302 4,605,662,045 3,096,707,619 2,256,847,517 1,506,884,257 1,292,367,509 659,064,459 534,484,966 521,428,776 446,588,552 376,130,845 348,588,399 220,007,082 196,947,784 169,047,614 153,700,353 146,608,884 88,912,889 47,746,181 45,869,836 Exports Percentages Trading partners Values (Current US$) 100.00% Total 22.69% Japan 20.98% USA 14.11% Germany 10.28% Thailand 6.87% United Kingdom 5.89% Philippines 3.00% Canada 2.44% Italy 2.38% Malaysia 2.03% Czech Rep 1.71% Netherlands 1.59% Austria 1.00% Cambodia 0.90% Indonesia 0.77% Spain 0.70% Denmark 0.67% China 0.41% Singapore 0.22% Belgium 0.21% Rep of Korea Source: United Nation Trade Statistics, 2011 450 4,241,916,800 1,043,720,086 404,458,272 368,752,646 281,503,671 265,829,603 231,808,285 190,824,239 104,004,419 94,468,940 90,651,480 87,329,117 79,840,542 78,459,915 77,500,066 69,720,356 68,139,742 66,252,040 64,012,099 62,378,377 59,670,286 Percentages 100.00% 24.60% 9.53% 8.69% 6.64% 6.27% 5.46% 4.50% 2.45% 2.23% 2.14% 2.06% 1.88% 1.85% 1.83% 1.64% 1.61% 1.56% 1.51% 1.47% 1.41% Table 6.26: Results of export sector “Road vehicles”, SITC, Rev.2 (x78) A Income groups (Dependent variable: lnx78) Upper High Income Group Constant ln YN Lower High Income Group Model 6.1 -1.723 Model 6.2 6.984 Model 6.3 29.432*** Model 6.1 -5.835 Model 6.2 3.867 Model 6.3 11.833*** Model 6.1 -29.682 Model 6.2 -2.317 Model 6.3 5.453* (-0.113) (1.258) (4.216) (-0.268) (0.581) (4.695) (-1.291) (-0.372) (1.708) 0.227 0.403 0.785 (0.741) (0.886) (1.655) ln PYN 0.172 0.824* 0.713 (0.482) (1.461) -2.085*** ln DPYN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST R-squared F-statistic N (0.918) 0.023 -1.006*** -0.966*** -1.104*** -0.16 -0.141 -0.317 (0.229) (0.119) (0.141) (-3.728) (-3.567) (-4.806) (-0.742) (-0.656) (-1.455) 0.053*** 0.056*** 0.074*** 0.034** 0.026 0.045*** 0.019 0.021 0.039*** (6.333) (6.582) (10.883) (1.999) (1.438) (4.057) (1.280) (1.576) (4.138) -0.026*** -0.026*** -0.029*** -0.008 -0.007 -0.01 0.006 0.006 0.001 (-5.179) (-5.322) (-6.724) (-0.482) (-0.395) (-0.603) *** *** *** -2.802 *** 4.707 *** -0.278 *** (-5.951) DWTO (0.619) 0.019 (56.402) DAPEC 0.446 0.035 (-35.627) (DASEAN) (1.761) 0.21 (-2.793) ln ERN Upper Middle Income Group -0.056 *** -2.625 *** (-31.617) 4.375 *** (51.509) -2.721 *** (-32.057) 4.786 (54.212) 0.918 (49.253) *** -0.145 (-2.837) -0.082 *** -0.380 *** (-6.948) 1.584 (54.678) (0.338) -0.102 (43.730) 0.724 *** 0.017 *** 1.039 (0.354) *** (13.743) 0.453 *** 0.255 *** 0.356 *** (28.558) (28.558) (28.558) *** *** *** -0.047 -0.026 -0.037 -0.561 *** (-14.672) 0.192 *** (0.399) -1.020 *** (-197.040) -0.336 *** (-10.229) 0.253 *** (13.824) 0.035 *** (0.077) -0.842*** (-29.726) 0.565*** (10.439) -0.034 (-1.474) 0.222*** (-4.667) (-6.177) (-5.632) (-6.051) (-6.051) (-6.051) (10.124) (4.361) (11.878) 0.655 0.623 248 0.654 0.622 248 0.665 0.634 248 0.589 0.528 110 0.593 0.533 110 0.589 0.528 111 0.475 0.419 187 0.476 0.419 187 0.462 0.405 187 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 451 B Regional groups (Dependent variable: lnx78) Asian Group Constant ln YN European Group Model 6.1 9.255 Model 6.2 9.088** Model 6.3 11.483*** Model 6.1 -38.870** Model 6.2 -4.009 Model 6.3 5.145 Model 6.1 -29.703 Model 6.2 2.753 Model 6.3 14.919*** (0.743) (2.394) (5.639) (-2.179) (-0.698) (0.964) (-1.379) (0.377) (3.360) 0.998*** 0.016 (0.064) ln PYN 0.939** (2.777) (2.173) 0.963** 0.074 (0.269) ln DPYN VNTRADE -0.464 ** DASEAN DAPEC DWTO R-squared F-statistic N * (-2.048) (-1.808) *** *** *** 0.066 -0.021 *** (-3.987) ln DIST -0.404 -2.534 *** 0.064 (7.480) -0.021 *** (-3.950) -2.566 *** 0.069 (14.083) -0.022 *** (-4.118) -2.449 (2.075) 0.588 (-2.110) (7.220) PTRADE -0.451 ** 0.960** (2.610) -0.243 (-0.885) ln ERN American Group *** (-21.715) (-22.236) (-19.009) 0.165 0.206 -0.042 (0.511) (0.658) (-0.113) 1.747*** 1.687*** (7.115) -0.282*** 0.251 (1.042) 0.279 0.282 (1.231) 0.025 * -0.052 (1.220) 0.029 (1.909) *** 0.015 ** (2.246) -0.052 *** -0.884 (0.074) 0.049 *** (4.809) -0.052 *** (-3.519) (-3.528) (-3.391) *** *** *** 1.723 2.833 3.354 (0.522) *** (-2.857) 0.036 ** (2.577) -0.064 ** (-2.174) -4.255 *** -0.861 *** -0.994*** (-2.768) (-2.972) *** 0.061*** 0.039 (2.934) -0.063 ** (-2.130) -3.046 *** (8.727) -0.085*** (-3.054) -4.348*** (5.652) (389.348) (40.601) (-17.332) (-15.206) (-20.523) 2.142*** -2.480*** -0.059*** -0.672*** -1.585*** -1.293*** -1.367*** (7.075) (7.521) (-29.887) (-29.887) (-29.887) (-9.131) (-9.137) (-9.155) -0.282*** -0.375*** 0.067*** 0.002*** 0.018*** 0.658*** 0.535*** 0.558*** (-3.262) (-3.330) (-3.870) (6.287) (6.287) (6.287) (7.266) (7.260) (7.244) 0.64 0.609 252 0.64 0.609 252 0.641 0.61 252 0.61 0.562 220 0.609 0.56 220 0.597 0.547 220 0.711 0.68 125 0.71 0.679 125 0.699 0.668 126 Note: ***; **; * refer to 1%; 5%; and 10% significant levels; t-statistics are in parentheses; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 452 Table 6.26 B: Estimated impacts on Vietnamese bilateral exports, a comparison between sectoral and aggregate estimations for sector “Road vehicles”, SITC, Rev.2 (x78) A Income groups Lower middle and low Upper high income group Lower high income group income group ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector Aggregate Sector 0.457 0.393 -0.14 0.254 0.049 -0.007 -1.875 1.056 1.394 -0.202 - 1.114 1.191 0.569 0.415 0.042 -0.032 -4.388 6.364 0.695 -0.234 0.227 0.172 -2.085 0.035 0.074 -0.026 -2.802 4.707 -0.278 -0.102 0.958 0.875 -0.352 0.198 0.058 -0.039 -3.652 0.403 0.713 0.210 -1.104 0.045 -0.008 1.039 -0.884 0.09 0.453 -0.047 B Regional groups Asian group Aggregate ln YN ln PYN ln DPYN ln ERN VNTRADE PTRADE ln DIST DASEAN DAPEC DWTO (SMASIA) Aggregate High income Asia (SMASIAH) Low income Asia (SMASIAL) 0.653 0.671 0.870 0.157 0.034 -0.014 -3.797 4.598 0.489 -0.362 0.511 0.690 -0.017 -1.396 0.007 0.008 -2.514 -3.554 0.643 Sector 0.016 0.074 -0.243 -0.464 0.069 -0.021 -2.534 0.165 2.142 -0.375 European group American group (SMEUROPE) Aggregate Sector (SMAMERICA) Aggregate Sector African group (SMAFRICA) Aggregate Sector 0.833 0.796 -0.225 0.445 0.048 -0.022 -0.806 0.998 0.963 0.588 0.279 0.049 -0.052 3.354 1.820 1.791 0.443 0.433 0.061 0.017 -3.140 0.939 0.960 0.251 -0.994 0.061 -0.085 -4.348 1.100 0.962 -0.37 0.600 0.055 -0.023 1.220 - 2.499 -0.068 -2.480 0.067 0.438 -0.175 -1.585 0.658 -0.520 - Note: The bold coefficients are significant at standard levels: 1%; 5%; or 10%; Definitions of independent variables are shown in Table 5.2, Appendix A 453 ... Indochina Peninsula region within the South East of Asia, its neighbors being China in the north, Laos and Cambodia in the west; and most of the east is long coastline approaching the Indochina Sea... exports of Vietnam The empirical analyses are conducted using data on total bilateral exports; and sectoral bilateral exports The aggregate analysis addresses the impacts on exports in nominal and... negotiation; and free trade agreements with China, Korea, Japan, Australia, India, and New Zealand have separately signed ASEAN is one of the biggest trading partners with Vietnam Taking the WTO accession