ENERGY T ECHNOLO GY P ERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strateg ies to 2050 2 o 1 o Please note that this PDF is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/ about/copyright.asp -:HSTCQE=U]Z^\]: (61 2010 14 1 P1) 978-92-64-08597-8 €100 To meet the challenges of energy security and climate change as well as the growing energy needs of the developing world, a global energy technology revolution is essential. This was the key message of the 2008 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP). But is this fundamental transformation happening? What are the key technologies that can play a role? What are the costs and benefits? And what policies do we need? The new ETP 2010 explores such questions and many others, drawing on the extensive expertise of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and its energy technology network. ETP 2010 presents updated scenarios from the present to 2050 that show which new technologies will be most important in key sectors and in different regions of the world. It highlights the importance of finance to achieve change, examines the implications of the scenarios for energy security and looks at how to accelerate the deployment of low-carbon technologies in major developing countries. It presents roadmaps and transition pathways for spurring deployment of the most important clean technologies and for overcoming existing barriers. With extensive data, projections and analysis, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 provides decision makers with the detailed information and insights needed to accelerate the switch to a more secure, low-carbon energy future. ENERGY T ECHNOLOGY P ERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 2 o 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 2 o 1 o INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member countries on sound energy policy. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among 28 advanced economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency aims to: n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy effi ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. Please note that this publication is subject to speci c restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp © OECD/IEA, 2010 International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France 3 FOREWORD The previous edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), published in summer 2008, called for an energy technology revolution to tackle the undesirable consequences of our current patterns of energy supply and use. It also highlighted that, if we did not alter course, concerns about energy security and the threat of dangerous climate change would only become much worse. So what – if any – progress have we made over the last two years in meeting these challenges? At first sight, it may seem as though not much has changed. Countries are still discussing what a long-term climate change framework should look like, while greenhouse-gas emissions go on rising. Concerns about energy security are still with us and oil prices remain high and prone to further volatility. However, I believe that in fact we may be witnessing the early signs of the historic transition that we so badly need: high oil prices and the global financial crisis may have changed the demand structure for energy. We may indeed see an “oil-less recovery” in OECD countries, in which our economies return to positive growth without a notable pick-up in oil demand. We are also seeing some promising signs of accelerated deployment for a number of important low-carbon technologies, particularly in renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced vehicle technologies. Funding for clean energy research, development and demonstration is increasing again after more than two decades of decline and stagnation, and many countries have committed to spend even more in the future. But we still have formidable challenges before us. Tackling climate change and enhancing energy security require a massive decarbonisation of the energy system leading to a new age of electrification. We need to break the historic link between CO 2 emissions and economic output; and do this not just for a few years, but from now on. ETP 2010 shows how this can be achieved. It identifies the technologies that we require and the policies that we will need to stimulate the necessary investment. Importantly, it also clearly demonstrates the benefits in terms not only of reduced CO 2 emissions, but also of fossil fuel savings. We also need to think about what a low-carbon energy mix will mean for comprehensive energy security. On the one hand, reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels and broader development of alternative energy sources can help alleviate some of the current concerns around security of supply for these fuels. Yet as the demand for decarbonised electricity and also for biofuels increases, so new challenges will no doubt emerge requiring innovative policies to ensure that we have the affordable and reliable energy supplies that we need. ETP 2010 also shows how efforts to tackle climate change will need to include all major economies and so require truly global co-operation. We at the IEA acutely recognise this challenge, with our member states now representing a decreasing share of the world’s energy demand, production and CO 2 emissions. In the face of this, the IEA and its members must create ever stronger ties with key non-member countries such as China, India, Russia and many other countries. The newly proposed international low-carbon energy technology platform is one way in which we are doing this. The platform, which was endorsed by the IEA Ministerial meeting ©OECD/IEA, 2010 4 FOREWORD in October 2009, will bring together policy makers, business representatives and technology experts to discuss how best to encourage the spread of clean energy technologies and, we hope, will usher in a new era of broader, heightened and proactive collaboration. By working together we can and must meet the global energy challenges we now face. There simply is no alternative. ETP 2010 shows us what we have to do. Let us make that revolutionary future a reality together. This publication has been produced under my authority as Executive Director of the IEA. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of individual IEA member countries. Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director ©OECD/IEA, 2010 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication was prepared by the International Energy Agency’s Directorate of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology, under the leadership of Bo Diczfalusy, and in co-operation with other divisions of the Agency. Peter Taylor, Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division, was the project manager and had overall responsibility for the design and implementation of the study. The other main authors were Pierpaolo Cazzola, François Cuenot, Joana Chiavari, David Elzinga, Lew Fulton, Ben Gibson, Tom Kerr, Steven Lee, Uwe Remme, Cecilia Tam, Michael Taylor, Paul Tepes and Nathalie Trudeau. Many other IEA colleagues have provided important contributions, in particular Brendan Beck, Barbara Buchner (now with the Climate Policy Initiative), Keith Burnard, Kat Cheung, Hugo Chandler, Zuzana Dobrotkova, Paolo Frankl, Dagmar Graczyk, Yuichi Ikeda, Andrea Nour, Sara Pasquier, Cédric Philibert, Carrie Pottinger, Jonathan Sinton and Jayen Veerapen. Helpful advice and support were also received from Sun Joo Ahn, Richard Baron, Marco Baroni, Fatih Birol, Jean- Yves Garnier, Didier Houssin, Julie Jiang, Nigel Jollands, Samantha Ölz, Roberta Quadrelli and Sylvie Stephan. Martin Taylor of the Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency was a main author of the nuclear roadmap. The cement roadmap was jointly authored with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) Cement Sustainability Initiative. A number of external experts have contributed significantly to different parts of the publication. Heather Haydock (AEA Technology) helped co-ordinate the study and contributed to the chapter on policies to accelerate a low-carbon technology transition. Bloomberg New Energy Finance contributed to the finance chapter. Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez (Human Dimensions Research Associates) helped write the chapter on technology choices and behaviour. Modelling and other support for the United States and OECD Europe chapters was provided respectively by Tom Alfstad (US Department of Energy [US DOE] Brookhaven National Laboratory), and Markus Blesl and Tom Kober (University of Stuttgart). Contributors to the China chapter included Wenying Chen (Tsinghua University), Libo Wu (Fudan University) and Yufeng Yang (Energy Research Institute), and their colleagues. The IEA is grateful for the contribution of the India Energy Technology Perspectives Expert Group, chaired by S.M. Dhiman, Member (Planning), Central Electricity Authority; I.C.P. Keshari, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Power, chairman of the power sub-group; Dr. Ajay Mathur, Director General, Bureau of Energy Efficiency, chairman of the buildings sub-group; V. Raghuraman, Chief Adviser, Jaguar Overseas Ltd, chairman of the industry sub-group; Dilip Chenoy, Director General, SIAM, chairman of the transportation sub-group, as well as all participants at the Joint IEA-India Workshop on Regional Analysis of India who provided valuable comments and feedback on the India analysis. Gillian Balitrand, Annette Hardcastle, Catherine Smith and Colette Davidson helped to prepare the manuscript. Rob Wright (Wrighthand Ltd) carried editorial responsibility. ©OECD/IEA, 2010 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Production assistance was provided by the IEA Communication and Information Office: Jane Barbière, Madeleine Barry, Viviane Consoli, Muriel Custodio, Rebecca Gaghen, Delphine Grandrieux, Corinne Hayworth, Bertrand Sadin and Marilyn Smith helped to improve and clarify content and managed the layout and graphic design. Special thanks go to Pieter Boot and Dolf Gielen, former IEA colleagues, for their input and support during the early stages of the project and later expert review. The work was guided by the members of the IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology (CERT) who helped to improve substantially the policy relevance of this document. The Standing-Group on Long-Term Co-operation, the Working Party on Energy End-Use Technologies, the Working Party on Renewable Energy Technologies and the Working Party on Fossil Fuels also provided helpful inputs and suggestions. IEA Implementing Agreements The technology analysis in this book draws extensively upon the unique IEA international network for collaboration on energy technology. Numerous experts from many of the 42 IEA Implementing Agreements have contributed with data, suggestions and expert review. Some of these experts are listed below: Advanced Transport Materials Stephen Hsu Demand Side Management Hans Nilsson Seppo Kärkkäinen District Heating and Cooling Robin Wiltshire Efficient Electrical Equipment Hans-Paul Siderius Electricity Networks Analysis, Research and Development Lars Audun Fodstad Rainer Bacher John Baker Otto Bernsen Minnesh Bipath Michele DeNigris Stig Goethe Eric Lightner Ian Welch Energy Conservation through Energy Storage Andreas Hauer Astrid Wille ©OECD/IEA, 2010 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Heat Pumping Technologies Monica Axell Jerry Groff Roger Nordman Shogo Tokura Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technologies and Programmes Urs Muntwyler Martijn Van Walwijk High-Temperature Superconductivity Guy Deutscher Hydrogen Mary-Rose de Valladares IEA Clean Coal Centre Paul Baruya Colin Henderson John Kessels John Topper IEA Greenhouse Gas RD Programme John Davison Renewable Energy Technology Deployment Ryan Katofsky Kristian Petrick Matthew Stanberry Solar Heating and Cooling Esther Rojas Wind Energy Systems Hannele Holttinen Expert reviewers A large number of reviewers provided valuable feedback and input to the analysis presented in this book: Rosemary Albinson, Castrol, United Kingdom; Roy Antink, Skanska AB, Sweden; Robert Arnot, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Canada; Paul Arwas, independent consultant, United Kingdom; Zafer Ates, Permanent Delegation of Turkey to the OECD, France; Quan Bai, Energy Research Institute (ERI), China; Francoise Bartiaux, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium; Matthew Bateson, WBCSD, Switzerland; Barbara Bauman Tyran, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), United States; Georg Bäuml, Volkswagen, Germany; Chris Bayliss, International Aluminium Institute (IAI), United Kingdom; Morgan Bazilian, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Austria; David Beauvais, NRCan, Canada; Martina Beitke, European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC), ©OECD/IEA, 2010 8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Belgium; Ron Benioff, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), United States; Kamel Bennaceur, Schlumberger, France; Alissa Boardley, Environment Canada, Canada; Inger Pihl Byriel, Energinet, Denmark; Terry Carrington, Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), United Kingdom; Satish Chander, The Fertiliser Association of India, India; Ian Christmas, Worldsteel, Belgium; Robert Clover, HSBC, United Kingdom; Jonathan Coony, World Bank, United States; Karlynn Cory, NREL, United States; Sean Cuthbert, Lloyd’s Register Group Services Ltd., United Kingdom; Pradeep Kumar Dadhich, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India; Francois Dassa, EDF, France; Pedros Dias, European Solar Thermal Industry Federation, Belgium; Carmen Difiglio, US DOE, United States; Rick Duke, US DOE, United States; George Eads, Consultant, United States; Andrew Eil, International Finance Corporation (IFC), United States; Eric J. ten Elshof, Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Netherlands; Craig Erdrich, US DOE, United States; Robert Falzon, Goldman Sachs, United Kingdom; Nicolas Fichaux, European Wind Energy Association, Belgium; Michel Folliet, IFC, United States; Timothy Foxon, University of Leeds, United Kingdom; Jim Fritz, UTC, United States; Eamon Geraghty, International Building Materials Group (CRH), Ireland; Doug Grano, United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), United States; Sallie Greenberg, Illinois State Geological Survey, United States; Jake Handelsman, American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA), United States; Atsushi Hatano, Nissan, Japan; Ruth Herbert, DECC, United Kingdom; Andrew Higham, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat, Germany; Neil Hirst, Imperial College, United Kingdom; Volker Hoenig, VDZ, Germany; Bazmi Husain, ABB, Switzerland; Tomoya Ichimura, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Japan; Kejun Jiang, ERI, China; Nakhun Jung, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea; Birte Holst Jorgensen, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark; Mitsuru Kaihori, Japan Paper Association, Japan; Larry Kavanagh, American Iron and Steel Institute, United States; Ron Knapp, IAI, United Kingdom; Steve Kidd, World Nuclear Association, United Kingdom; Joris Knigge, Enexis, Netherlands; Bernhard Kohl, Eurofer, Belgium; Joachim Krüger, CEFIC, Belgium; Martyna Kurcz-Jenn, Alstom, Belgium; Skip Laitner, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, United States; Paul Lansbergen, Forest Products Association of Canada, Canada; Erin Laws, Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA), New Zealand; Jean Le Cocguic, OECD, France; Henry Lee, Harvard University, United States; Yongpil Lee, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea; Xavier Leflaive, OECD, France; Alan Meier, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, United States; Maria Mendiluce, WBCSD, Switzerland; Gilles Mercier, NRCan, Canada; Andy Miller, US EPA; United States; Marco Mensink, Confederation of European Paper Industries, Belgium; Motomi Miyashita, Japan Gas Association, Japan; Fuad Mohamed Siala, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Austria; Danielle H. Monosson, US State Department, United States; David Mora, University of Flensburg, Denmark; Ben Muirhead, International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), France; Denise Mulholland, US EPA, United States; S. Nand, The Fertiliser Association of India, India; Nakano Naokazu, Japan Iron and Steel Federation, Japan; Thomas Nowak, European Heat Pump Association, Belgium; Nils-Olof Nylund, VTT, Finland; Stathis Peteves, European Commission Joint Research Centre, the Netherlands; Dirk Pilat, OECD, France; Sean Plasynski, US DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory, United States; Thomas Pregger, German Aerospace Center, Germany; Shuba V. Raghavan, Center for Study of ©OECD/IEA, 2010 [...]... Accelerate Technology Development, 28-29 April 2009, Paris; Energy Technology Transition Project Launch Workshop, 13-14 June 2009, Beijing; ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 10 First IEA-Indian ETP Expert Group Workshop, 20 October 2009, Delhi; From Roadmaps to Implementation, 2-3 November 2009, Paris; Workshop on Regional Analysis for the Energy Technology Perspectives 2010, 19 January 2010, Beijing; Energy Technology. .. 2010 Tailoring policies to the stage of technology development 469 Energy technology research, development and demonstration 476 Current public-sector low-carbon RD&D expenditure 476 TABLE OF CONTENTS 22 Private-sector RD&D spending Assessing the gap: global low-carbon energy technology RD&D needs 479 Accelerating energy technology RD&D Chapter 1 3 478 481 Technology roadmaps 489 A portfolio of technologies... of energy- consuming equipment and infrastructure 209 Figure 6.2 Share of residential building stock in selected countries by vintage 209 Figure 6.3 Service sector value added by country 210 Figure 6.4 Global energy consumption of buildings by sector 211 Figure 6.5 Household energy use by energy commodity 212 Figure 6.6 Service sector energy use by energy commodity 213 Figure 6.7 Buildings sector energy. .. International shipping activity, energy intensity and energy use by scenario 294 Shipping energy use by scenario 295 OECD Europe Figure 8.1 Total primary energy supply in OECD Europe 300 Figure 8.2 Energy production, imports and exports by fuel for OECD Europe 300 Figure 8.3 Final energy consumption by fuel and by sector in OECD Europe 301 Figure 8.4 Total primary energy supply by fuel for OECD Europe,... Transition to a low-carbon energy future 411 Future technology and policy priorities 411 TABLE OF CONTENTS 21 Chapter 1 1 India 415 Regional description 416 Recent trends in energy and CO2 emissions 417 Energy production and supply 417 Energy consumption 419 End-use efficiency improvement 420 Carbon dioxide emissions 421 Overall energy policy framework... 298 Recent trends in energy and CO2 emissions 298 Energy production and supply 299 Energy consumption 301 End-use efficiency improvement 302 Carbon dioxide emissions 302 Overall energy policy framework 302 Current status of energy policies and climate change initiatives 303 Overview of scenarios and CO2 abatement options 307 Energy and CO2 emission scenarios... CO2 emissions reductions by technology area in 2050 in the BLUE Map scenario 76 Long-term energy savings from improvements in energy efficiency, OECD-11 78 Historical and projected changes in final energy consumption per unit of GDP 79 Figure 2.7 Use of carbon capture and storage in the BLUE Map scenario, 2050 82 Figure 2.8 Shares of primary energy use by fuel and final energy use by sector, 2007 83... emissions reduction by technology option for iron and steel 178 Figure 5.13 Energy savings potential in 2007 for cement, based on BATs 182 Figure 5.14 Direct emissions reduction by technology option for cement 183 Figure 5.15 Energy savings potential in 2007 for chemicals, based on BPT 186 Figure 5.16 Direct emissions reduction by technology option for chemicals and petrochemicals 187 Energy savings potential... Transition to a low-carbon energy future 332 Future technology priorities Future policy priorities Chapter 9 332 334 United States 337 Regional description 338 Recent trends in energy and CO2 emissions 338 Energy production and supply 339 Energy consumption 340 End-use efficiency improvement 341 Carbon dioxide emissions 341 Overall energy policy framework... and by energy commodity 215 Residential sector energy consumption by fuel and by region in the Baseline scenario 217 Service sector energy consumption by fuel and by region in the Baseline scenario 217 Figure 6.10 Buildings sector energy consumption by fuel and by scenario 221 Figure 6.11 Buildings sector energy consumption by fuel, by scenario and by region 222 Change in residential sector energy . 2010 International Energy Agency 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France 3 FOREWORD The previous edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), published in summer 2008, called for an energy technology. & Strategies to 2050 2 o 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 2 o 1 o INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous. analysis of energy data. n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy effi