Global
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ISBN: 978-0-8215.7365-1
ISBN: 978-0:8213-73668 DOI: 10.15960978-0-9213.7365-1 ISSN: 1014-8906
‘Cover photos Irgaion by Chris StowerfPanox; Man with Cell hone by Jasob
Silberberg/Panos; Train by QiliShen/Panox Map Projetion by Chris StowersPanoss and Researcher by Jenny Matthews Panos (Cover design: Cea! Stages
report was December 12, 2007 Dolls age current USS dollaes ules oherwise indicaed
Trang 6Contents
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xi Abbreviations xv
Overview 1 “Technological achievement and difusion in developing countries 2 Some policy dections 13,
Nowe 15 Refeenses 18
Chapter 1 Prospects Growth outlook 17 for Developing Countries 17 Risks 18
Financial markets: Needed correction or aor dscupion? 18 Global growth 21 World rade 33
Inflacion and commodity markers 36
Risks and unceresinis: Danger of a banking crisis nda US ecssion 41 Long-erm prospects and poverty forecasts 43
Nowe 4E References 49)
Chapter 2 Technology and Technological Diffsion in Developing Countries 5! The role of ehnology in development 53 Measuring technology in developing countries 58
saluting overall rchnologcal progress 78 Technologies dfanion ove the longterm 87
Trang 7Chapter 3 Determinants of Technological Progess: Recent Trends and Prospects 105, Drivers of technologies progress A framework 107 External ramsmision channels 109
[Nurturing techaologial adspivecapacey 127 Gonclision 150)
owes Hồ References 156
Appendix: Regional Economic Prospects 165 ast Ais andthe Pacific 165 Europe snd Central Asia 170
Latin Ameren and the Caribbean 76 Middle East aod North Africa 184 South Asia 189
SubSsharan Aiea 193,
Figures Tr Robust growth among developing counties should cushion the developed couatey lowdown 2
2 Scio innovation and invention i slmose exclusively high-income activity 3 3 Technological achievement: Converging, bu the gap remains large 4 The penetration of older and more recent rechnologcs depends on more than income 5
‘Technological achievement ends to evel ofa dflerot income ve in đi‹rcn
fegions 6
6 Most echnologes falc penetrate deeply iat developing economies 7 7 The urbanceral gap in eephone access in Inia is huge 7 8 Domestic absorsive capacity both conditions and aracs external lows 8 9 Developing counties crac in technology gos as sen ` T0
10 Macroeconomic srabilcy has improved since the cary 19905 LT 11 Literacy rates have incteaed inal gions l2
12 Developing regions have moch poorer governance than do OECD counsries 13 1.1 The perscved riskiness of high-yield corporate bonds inteased more than thạc ‘of emerging marker onde 19 1.2 Emesging marker asset selha more severe than during calc petiod of marker, Turbulence 19 1.3 Global equity markers fal them recover fe by emerging markets 20
LỆ Awepelown in growsh in 2008 2
115) Volatile patterns of proth among OECD countries 2 Kế Tighter eet and weak housing ye slower US growth 23
17 Robust growth in developing county industrial prodacion 24 1L8 Developing growth retain strong moment ding the Rise hal of 2007 26 V9 1.10 Ease Asia now accounts For anequartr of China’ imports 27 ath growth moderting through 2009 26
Trang 81s
sa
Continued il revenue gains support growth among Middle East and North Asc oil exporters 30 South Asia growth is slowing asthe Indian rupee appreciates 32
Oil exporters drive 2007 grow renults foeSub-Sabaron Afica 32 ‘Weak US growth reduces demand for developing county exports 35 [Export opportuni for highncome US curent account narows ver 2007 and Ho to continve doing 3036 counties 38
Inflationary pressures are rising in the Middle East and Now Afiea and SubSsharan Altea 37 Inflation is broly stable cewhere, though a high lạnh 37
Commodity prices continued gains through 2007 led by metals 38 Goppee ancy and sluminum peices sharply affected hy China 38 Growth inthe world’s demand foro slows 39
OPEC reduces output to support prices 39 Agricultural prices surge oer 2006-07 40
{Ave in food ries, fed by a ramp-up af the peices of fas, ols and rains 40 Longteem geowth, 1980-2030 44 Declining capitate growth for developed countries, 2002-3045
Sustained high productivity growth for developing counties 45
Patent activity i singin middleiacome coutees 6 ltricl consumption varies markedly even at similar income levels 63 Rail and voad densities se with income and population density 65 “Telephone densities are highly covelated with income, bu air ransportis aot 66
“The incidence of Intcne se varies widely across countries 73, Logistics performance inthe world 77 Diswibucon of technological achievement by dimension S0
Increase in stmmary technological achievement subindexcy, 1990-20005 82 Altesnative summary indexes of technological achievement 83
‘Technological achievement sses with income levels BH
Comparison of evel of technological achievement, carly 1990s and arly 200085
Domestic aborprive capacity both conditions and strats external flows 108 Rising share of high-tech imports ` H2
Eapors of low medina aid high-cchnology pode: 114 ‘Shave of foreign affiliate in busines RSD expendicure 117 Licensing payment have isch shaephy 121
“The brain drains ‘hase of PD sents il ving inthe Unive Sates five years severe problem ina numberof small ountres 123 afergrvdewion 124
ighstiled emigrans ate dnpropestionstely represented in the diaspora 124 Mont developing countries have ineresed ther expovare to external ‘echnology 128
[amber of counties in confice worldwide 139 ciency of contact enforcement 152
Developing country governance sore elative 19 OFCD average T32 Regional serages of ix governance indiestore 133
Trang 9Alo AL Als
Except in Sub-Saharan Aca, le expectancy is improving 14 ‘Educational expenditinns have sae i sete riers 187
‘Many developing county students filo ect era standards) 138 Levels of intelectual property protection 146
Level of and recent changes in technological absorptive capacsy 149, Eat Asian grow moves up in 2007 165
Except for Cina inflation is now sailing across East Avia 166 Performance improves for East Asia countries other tha China 169 ‘Mixed groweh euttrns aero Europe and Central Asia 171
External positions vaey widely cras Europe and Central Avia 171 Growth in Europe and Cental Asi eases nto 2009173
Growth ouuens were mixed scross Latin America in 2007176 Latin American inflation ensen over the last 13 years 177
{atin Ameria andthe Caibbeansovercign bond spreads dele, then increase again 177 Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean eases ino 2008179 Financia test Credit 183
Exchange rate policy dilemmas? 183
Export product vale} conceteation i iceesing 183 Export market Walue) concentration is falling 18 Growth in Middle East and North Ain picks up 188
Hiydeocachoa exports continue t se on higher prices, nodes volume gains 186 “ous and remittances offer widening tade dtc for Maghreb and Maseg countries 187
-Midale East and Noah Afi equities tebound from the wi 2007 slump 189 South Asian egonomies case into 2007 190
‘Monetary poy i tightened in sponse co a buiklp in inflcion 190, Growth in Sub-Saharan Aca has aecelerated mackedl 198 ‘teaching 4 35-year high in oikexporting countries find 4 10-yea high in ciLinporting counties 199 198 Comiibutions of invesment an consumption have increased 199) Gross capital lows to devsloping countries 2005-07 30 The global outlook in summary, 2005-09 "22
Resent economic indeator, developing regions 2008-0725 Developments and prospects for world trade and payments 3£ overs in developing countries hy region selected years $6 Dispariy among TTP levels remains wide 58 Sense and innovative ose 61
Indicators of he slfasion of older technologies 68 Affordability of icine phones alls spay with lower incomes 67 Immnizaion rte lag sgiicartyin South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa 68 Diffason of hh water and saniestion technology is ow in rural areas 63
Diffusion of ecet technologies 72
Trang 10240 au aaa aaa 33
Indicators included in summary indexes of technological achievement 79) ‘Technologies! achievement in developing countries relative to that in high-income countries #1 Inceene in technological achievement ia developing Gvinse elative to that in highsncome countries 81 (Overall ecological progress in absolute and clave terms 86
Succesful diffusion has accelerated 8
The pace at which technology diffs hay picked up among sucesfl adaptors 89 Siow diffusion mesns that many developing countries never each the 25 oF SD percent ‘hreshold 90 Indicators uted to eleuate he sumenary indexes and overall index slated to Technologial achievement 95
Indicators used to eleuate the sumenary indexes and overall inde of echnological ` Share of total arianet explained by principal componeas, technological achievement index 96 Share of total variance explained by principal components, technological absoeptive pasty index %6 Shaee of ctl variance explained by principal componeas for each subaroup of indicators 97
Factor loadings an variable weights for rechological achievement slgeoups 98 to loadings and vanable weights for techologcal absorptive capacity solgroups 98 Shaee of eral anignce explained by main pảndpalsomponent of technologieal achievement and technological absorptive capacity
ting the subindexes 99
Factor loadings and variable weights obtained fom second-stage principal components analysis (2000-03) 99 ‘eae in technology goods has increased in descloping counties 111 Foreign dre inveriment ova perce of GDP 116 Focign direct investment a «percent of fixed capital formation 116 Selected purchases of high-ch firms by companies in developing counties arly 2000 TẠI Increases inexposite ro external technologies index, 1990s ¢0 2000 129 Macroeconomic sabilty has improved in developing counties 130 “The reglatory burden is heavier in developing counties than inthe OFCD 131 Faluetional atsinmene indicators 135 Relves high youth racy ares 136
‘sk financial inermediston hinders echnology in developing countries 139 RSD inrensies have incresed 141 Prvatepuble wcror RSD 14h ast Asia and Pacific forecae summary 166
as Asia and Pacific county forecats 168 rope and Cental Avia forecat summary 170 rope and Cental Asia couney foreaats 174
Latin America and the Caibheanforscase summary 179 Latin America and the Caribbean country frecans 180
Trang 1122 23 2s 2s 26 2s 29 a 33 a4 36 37 38
‘Middle East and Non Attic forcast summary 185 ‘Middle East and North Afi county forcast 188 Sanh Ade lomsaet summary 192
South Avia country forcast 199
SubrSaharan Afi forest sammary 194 SubSahacan Afric county forests 195
Summary of empnical eslts 14 Developing country exports in the wake of the removal of barsers to Chinese exports 31
Biofuel 41
Policy responses to Hsing fod prices 42
Technology can cooribte to welfare without aetiog mensues of shor-tcem futput 38 ‘Technologies! innovation may spur farther innovation in upseeam and downstreste —— Promoting appropriate tcchoolgies ia Rwands 57
Shctcomings of available measures of technological achievement 60 Deepwater petroleum technology in Beall 62
The green revolution 68 “Technology and geowth in Latin Americas natural esourcebased economies 7 Ingovative ws of communications technology i improving Hnancial access for the poor 75 The technological divide within India 91
‘Technology impocts Different paths for diferent counties 113
European cll centers in the Maghreb have inapted local entrepreneurs and prompted a specialization in highvalu-added services 118 South Afticn investment in Zambia's retail ctor has improved the quality of local produce and fartiey caringe 11 ‘Wal-Mart entry in Mexico boosted the Mexican soap, detergents and surfactants indusey 119 ‘Technological transfers tough the diaspora and return migrants: Some examples 155
Proxipal make failures inpeding technological progres in developing sounetics H3 Government sponsored innovation: Brain biofuels H44
Trang 12Foreword
sex at Gol Emo PhaMee ei dsp ie ae cies ine end witness Pe Sa cote we ove apie Ss olin nd penal td Học Soy tndeenion ant eae ae poh men ko c son ceicniir Ea xvivrecea =ie cash paral Tear wr aes le oo th foe Sod gone rd We dso by my concn the cm so whch cor Soro chlo Gitte SE Cobol coheed in gmt and ‘Seis an tata frome pnd rhecbgiel cute The por a che Ser endo taj Ge toh $y sinh county spe aces tat Spi hows ered dome Tacosragiagiy the” Global Econom
rnp fs tha se hệ cụh T230 ‘clog prog Ta hoi lo and tnd tcone coms ha aces mơc ‘Ep shan te ghacte comes Ae “các eelsftrlmdae din doping ‘owes is enchng ap oth eka Sou, However chology apt êm te i ae Gotan ir Sarin! ich of Oe re aber ‘Spnngdevcloping como for te tology hough nore ges conan Senter scp goods, Contes
Trang 13‘This repore suggests number of pk iso co boleter echoology dilicion aad sbsorpion within developing countries rat, Aeycloping countries should safeguard the Pneple of openness and atively strengthen Skills im the domestic population to ensure that they s able to take advantage of future opportunites Second, #0 assis diffusion "hroughout the economy, poly needs to ri force technologial sbsorpive capaci a the submational 3nd regional tevels and co Strengthen dissemination channels within ountees, inclding the outreach, testing, ‘nackeing, and dissemination activites of ap plied R&D agencies, Third, authorities should sure that publicly supplied tcchvological Seevces and technologynabling infasrac tre ate widely available, whether they are de lier dey bythe tate o by private fens, Fourth i lowincome counties and in those
salddliacome commie with ueeves access to quality secondary and tertiary scbookng, ‘tons shoul comcentrate om rising the quale ity and quantity of schooling Fanally, governments say need co inervene Hdeeey to encourage the rapid difasion of technology anda domestic culture of "new-to- themarket” innovation However caution required Although dice ietesentions have tenteimes been astointed with some nipor- tant technology successes, im many astnces they have not, Policies that have sucreeded have tended to make subsidies condiiona on performance and putin pave high-quality nd Independcntofindusty oversight system
Trang 14Acknowledgments
Anlrew Bare van the lead author and manager of the report The principal authors of chapter I were Hans Timincr and Elliot (Mick) Riordan Chapter 2 was writen by Andrew Burns and Willam Shaw, with weiten costdbutins from Antonie David, Yvan Decreus, and Annette De Keine Chapter 3 was written by Andee Buros and Willa Shaw ‘wth writen contribuions from Dilek Ayu, Antonio David, Yan Decreus, Anette De Kleine, Mariem Malouche, Sanket Mekapatsy and Olga Salls Both Chapters 2 and 3 benefitted from the expen research asstneeof Tras Cheretay, Shu Tan, and Teng fang ‘Several people contributed substantively to chapter 1, The Clabal Trends Team, unde the leaderaip of Hans Timer, was sesponable fr the peoietions, wih written contributions From Job Bales, Paul Brenton, Mauriio Bussoo,Beety Dow, Teng fang, Anette De Kleine, Donald Mitchel, Denis Medsede, Gauresh Rajadhyaksba, Flot (Mick) Riordan, Chú Savescu, Shane Strife, and Dominique van der Mensbrughe The poverty aumbers eriginated with ‘haohua Chen from the Development Research Group ‘The accompanying online publication, Prospects forthe Global Economy (PGE), was pro duced by a team ed by Cristina Savesca and incding Sarak Ceo, Teg Fang, Shura Sahay, ‘nd Jeailee Vito, with technical support rom Gauresh Rajadhyaksha ‘Martha Grotton edited the por, Nigar Farhad Aljera and Michal Paul managed the pubs lication process, and Merell Tuck managed the disemination activites Roula Yavii provided lavaluable assistance with the design of some figures Book production as coordinated by Mary Fisk from the World Bank Office ofthe Publisher ‘The report was peeled under the guidance of Uk Dadosh, Fangois Bourguignon, and Alan Gab, Several reviewers feed extensive advice and comments throughout che concepuaization and writing stages These included Jean-Fangois Aes, Kevin Barnes, Vandana Chandea, Pe Cael Dahman, Mark Duơ, Alan Geb, Mary Hallward-Decieies, Daniel Lederman, Jtfeey Lewis, William Matoney, Clas Pa Sepulveda, and Alfred Watkins
Trang 16Abbreviations pact caar CAT san cEm cs Dax ĐỊA ber st EAP EAP Fea, EMnG EPO EU For oor nt navies Ich MA iM no Lac LME MENA Bangue Analtigue de Commerce Intemational (lateratonal Teade Anse Database)
compound snoual growth eae computerized anal vmography sean
Cente d'Etudes Prsposives ct dafocmationslceracinals site for Reseach onthe lnternational Economy) CCofnmonvcath af Independent Sates
Deucsche Aktien Exchange Dow Jones Insti Average Aiphiesia,petsss, and tetanus Agia subscribe ink
cleerit mẹ arhdec Ease Asi andthe Paste Europe and Cente Asia Energing Maeket Bond IndexG Earopean Patent Office
ucogean Union foreign dvs investment ross domestic product ros national income
‘human immonodefcieney virusacquived immune defceney syndrome Inserational Cri Behasioe
Insertional Energy Agency Insernational Monetary Fund
Inzernational Organization for Standardization Latin America and the Caribbean London Mercantile Exchange
Trang 17Miser NASDAQ OEcb OHE OPEc Pe pre RSD SAR SMEs ssa a Torx UN Comrade UNCTAD, UNDP, UNESCO UMDO, useTo wio
Morgan Stanley Compenite Index
[ational Asocaton of Secures Dealers Automated Quotations Organisation for Economie Co-operation and Detlopment open heath Furnace
‘Onpaniation of he Petrolia Exponing Couities ĐA dmngiex
purchasing power parity ‘esearch and development South Asa segion
small and sediuenenerpies SubSahacan Attica
total factor prodctisity ‘Tokyo Stock Pie Index
Drited Nations Comtrade database
United Nations Conferene on Trade and Development United Nations Development Progeammne
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Orgaizaion United Nations Industral Development Organization
Trang 18Overview
This ction of Global Economie Prospect is ing elesed during a period of increased ue ersiny following four years of record {roth in developing countries In ation 0 xamining economic prospecte over the near Sind longer term, i takes am in-depth look at fhe caren level of ane recent erends in tech: nological achievement and he main fatore ‘hat determine the exes to which developing Courses succeed in implementing foreign sechnologie Norwithvtanding the financial eurmoll provoked by a tenement of Haka br th US morgage marker, and despite lange loner là sec Rema natin expaiins Wo each racked securities appears ta be broadly Based
Lone to far have been manageable, shongh credie conditions have tightened For develop tng economic, sovereign risk premiums have ieremed but remain low by historical am Ards Equiey values, eachange cư and commodity prices have come more volatile, Sed the vlncrablity of counties with Lage Current account defcin or pegged exchange Fates has become move vale, “Againe ths background, global growth slowed modestly 2007, comingin at kế pe ent aller a stcong 3.9 percent in 2006
Mont of the slowdown was stributable to ‘weaker geowth in high-income counties Growin developing economies was 3 robust, 7.8 percent, broadly unchanged from 2006 Afigare 1) This strong performance in the Aevcloping countries has offset some he Mowdowa in US domestic demand that stared with the unwinding of the housing bobble cal in 2006 During 2007, developing
Trang 19ofthe economic and sacl progress few canaries hat been đức technolo of the past Technology has been central to both economic sowh and many cements of secial welfare Figuet Robust growth among
developing countries should eusion the developed county slowdown
Ban | that are only pay eapered by standard mea " TEEN | ing belt, education, and grader equals: As sures of gon đomesiepnded (GDP) tndu- , Sen | meseed by bại or molaeddo, Eac sin much ofthe dlerencs in bth the vel “| find rate of growth of incomes across counties (Easely and Levine 2001; Hall and Jones A PB | forward tisespesed vo ply a central ein 1999, King and Levine 1998), And, looking
: ‘challenges of the remainder of this century
PEPE EOE EO S| OK pina sector and thề dien fan sour toring of mance are ey to echt neo Art ane ti; he tice r= Sy etaosahy erent ela pods and ‘cess depends onthe det Comet of teal cpm Of cane tokyo Seppo echoes pote by facing the sooth operation dŸ naien by chung tác Tạ xi HỆ Teledgesltrammetckr ty he gee poplin sd by rowing the jhiealintnicerccea bcos cme Compknen co technologist sophisti ‘creas ite es rec wel ey dfson ant sengten the Roger be anh Re sợi fee end dels (KD) gia Incxploringecholgie alo va achive nd Aiton cistepor ado bond Sfnion oftechslogy ond insepea propo ont thar enconpaner te schon tcng th way the podecton proves pannel by Sieh prods ond trvens are produed, take, and ade aval othe publ Understood in this way, technlogcl Technological achievement and estes at the national level can sen 8 Through scientific innovation and invention, diffusion in developing throegh the ednpion end adoption of p= countries he speid topic of tis eton of Global and through he spread of technologies arose “exiting, but new-tothe market technologies: Economic Prospect is echnay sn its firms, individual and the public sector within Aitfsion within the developing worl Much the country
il liatechange
{and those producing close substiete for US ‘espor while bent counties with caer ties pete tothe dolar—at st temporal
Trang 20Figure2 Sclenific innovation and invention Is almost exclusively a high-income activity a —_———
The following dcsion traces the sri ture of the overall repo, which i chapeer 2 explores the level fad scent tend a technological achievement, swell a0 the proces by which technology difses Between Sed within counties Chapter 3 concentrates fn the prowess by which countries absorb for ‘ga tecnaogy, both the mechanisms ehrough ‘which they are exposed to foreiga mo fies and the domestic factors that dictate how Succofally they absorb those techvologies Although the chapecr identities number of lesportant, policy relevant trendy, and & pores thei policy implications, it lsies to faure wock s more normative anlyis ofthe policies that developing counties should fellow t6 matinie the development benefits of technologies progres
Policy needs to actively promote
technological adoption and adaptation as swell as nurturing domestic innovative capacity
‘Reena fnding ofthe eeportis that most de Yeloping counties lack the abit vo generate innovations at the technological frontier, Although the amber of pateats and siendie rural aces i strongly corelated with GDP per capita for highincome counties,
most none ofthis active i sing performed inedevloping counties (figure 2) Te lack of deeasced hielageal copter oustin earn that chnelopieal progres bể Aleveloping countries occurs through the lopden and adaptation of pro-sitng but fewtrtiemaiet Gr newtethefion tech nologies Meco, relatively thin domestic technology sectors and much beter economic spd sintiic opportunities abroad mean tht ‘any mstionals of developing countries per- form cutingradge research in highancome countries Fer casmple, 2.5 millon of the 51.6 lon scents and engines Working inthe United States were burn in developing Counties (Kanaankutty and Burell 2007) The level of technological achievement in developing countries has converged with ‘that of high-income countries over the past 15 years ‘eustsied policy of incremed opeanesto for
Trang 21
Figure 9 Technological achievement: Converging, Bute gap remain Ieige api progress im developing countries F111 ca, : Ì¡;
salddliacone counties has inreesed such ‘ore rapidly than inigh-income countries As + result, developing countries have closed the relative gap with bigirincome count, However the gap remains Large (igure 3) Moreover the trong aggregate performance of lowrincome coureseseeflects large improve
Trang 22
Figure 4 The penetration of elder and mors recent technologies depends on more
ton deinered inthe pst Part of the strong techaologieal showing ofthe counties in the former Soviet ble is explained by the heavy ‘emphasis shar past governments ding basi infrastructure and eduction toa peed on po wide range of the popolation Silay, past governance problems and civil xi bếp hin the relatively weak penetration ofthese technologies in-many Sub-Saharan Mean ‘sounties, whereas macrosconomic turmoil anda elatively unequal distribution of in Somes and skills in Lain America may have ‘ontibured to weak outcomes inst region
Trang 23
Figure 5 Technologieal achievement en
diferent egions to lool of at diferent income lovelain ‘ct ten me pane by en
hese new technologies as been more rogom five to market demand and kes cestrained by the budget constraint of governments of state-owned-entrprises Furthermore, de ‘mand for these products hasbeen booed by lowe endater conse revue of compsddte prcng stateges and because some ofthese fewer technologies lend themselves moe ea iyo sharing than do sone older techoologics Overall although technological achieve "me tends ose with incomes, this elation ships noalieae and shows a endency to fevel ‘off Morconenit is no uniform actor ceions ‘Thus countries in Eucope and Ceneal Asia tend to have somewhat higher levels of achievement than would be expected nthe bss of income ane, bur the oseral elton ship berween technological achievement and income inthe region tacks atively well shat ‘ofall eounres igure 5) In contasy, echo logical achievement in Lain America tend tơ In lower than what would be expscted given incomes, and the overall elatonshipseggests
Trang 24
Figure @ Moet echnologes ato penetrate deeply nto developing Lộ? Figure 7 The uan-rorl gap in tlophone —— huge Re
Alscovered in the 1800s ro about 20 years toda! However technological progress aso depends on how rapidly the technology spreads within the country Here the story i less encouraging For technologies discovered luring 1950-75, only a quarter of the devel ‘fing counties that have acicveda¢ least 5 pereene penetration level have gone on to seach the 25 petcentheshold, ate uppetmidileincome counees igure 6, anal ofthese
“The sory is somewhat beter for newer technologies Nor only have hese fechnoogies spread more quickly between countries, bot tlko the share of counties that have acicved the 25 percent threshol is higher a 33 pe ent Indeed, developing coumries have now reached the sme average level of peeteation fof mobile phones as was observed in high income counties in 1995 “The oncrenness of technological difsion scrote countries is offen, mirrored within “une, expecially Lage countries AIO technology spreads celatiely rapidly among, sles living in major stent sakes mach Tonger for it ind its way tothe ret ofthe population of from 1p-petoraig compen forthe average firm Specie sectors in a ‘anced urban enters in China and Indi for
cramp se work-clas level of technology, but the incidence of thse technologies ch: where ithe eur, a ia rural ages a par- Vang remains ow (igure 7) Even within sectors technology may fas oly slow y- 18 Brant snd Indi, for example, the est 90- phisticnted Gris use technologies and achieve lesels of produciiy tha rival world leaders, Bạt vi mi of ims operate at levels ff paodetvity that see less than one-teh those ofthe cop performers
Trang 25Figure 8 Domestic absorptive capacity bth conions and atvacts external ows
‘which technologies dif across counties) snd its ability eo absorb and adap thos ec ola to which ti exponed he pace st ‘which technology dilfses within the coun try): Figure 8 presents sted deteription of thew a developing counry absorb technology AAs a fit step, am ceomom) b exposed to Iighertec business processes, prodics a services through foreign trade; foreign dre, mm
other comeusientions chamaeh, lung ‘seademia and international orgacications (the lange artows atthe top of the figure) The larger these flows, the greater the exposure of the economy to the global (ehaologeel enlee However exposure ro sew ideas and tech siques is not sufcient to ensure that the technology diffuses throughout the economy Successful absorption of foreign technology
Trang 26Government policy alo has cruial cole i play, Governments ave offen the peary chanel theough sehich corsa technologies, Such as clectrisity, fsedsine telephones, fransportation ilrastrcture, and medial ad fdestional secs, ae delivered Moreover, tovemment policy is legely responsible for công 2 bisiness environment chat fal fates ey frm entey and est ad that gi hostile wo the profits eo he made from expla ing now techies Too often rules andlor asi fearres of the doses ark pe ‘ent ems rom evan money by exploiting sew technology, and, 38 el, the echo ‘ay docs not spread within the county Policy Should also ensure that R&D and dissemi om eforts give prot to creating and into dung products for which a market (domestic ‘or forigal exits anl to hdyjng fies exploit ‘hose opportunites “The overall process is, of course, much ‘more complicated and much less echanst than is depicted in Figuee 8, Technological flows and technological absorptive capacity inflacnce cach ate How well technology di fuer depends on various market inperfe
‘ion, inching ineeasing returns to sale and technological spillovers (the smal light Ne rings toward the boron ofthe figure) Here the existense of financial sector that ine mediates beeween savers and innovacors may be necessary fo overcome the ial cost of some new technologies, In partculay access torfinance may be ese innovative Rms ste to achiee the nevesary sale o ulcash 3 potential sires irl, so hat ắc vi on Income garnered by the sbscestfal exploits: sion of ene new technology permits the a59- sition af another, thos resling in further ¬
Increased openness t trade, FDI, and diaspora contacts have boosted
technologies! diffusion The dismantling of rade barriers in many de- sloping counties over the past to decades hav dramatically incrested developing coun sre’ exposure t fori technologies Their
imports of capital and intermediate goods (vhich permit the production of teholog- cally sophisticated goods and sevies) now Sepmevent between 6 and 14 percent of thee GDR, sa ieene of more than 0 percent since 1994 The ratio of high-tech imports fe GDP more than doubled during the sme period Par 363 resul, developing countey Exports of high-tech goods have also i reas, rising from I percent of fal ex ports in the mid-1990s to 19 percent in 2002-04 (figure 9} bv the case of lower ‘middle-income counties, highsech goods rep- resent broadly the sae 29 percent share in total exports a8 i higvincome eountees (15 event i China is excluded ‘The casing of teststions 0 FDI also has contributed to technology dfsion within de- ‘loping counts FDL a major source of process technology and earning by doing 0p pores For indviuals in developing coun tiệt, Over the pase 15 yeaey FDI inflows to developing counties have almost doubled as petcntage of GDP ln ation, foreign ims ực making imporeae vontsibutons to the technological capacity of host counties, por- forming more than 40 percent of the rota RSD in some counties Ate sme time the competition, standaeds and knowledge of forsign markets that frcign fim ring vo the domestic market can have important spillover eet Finally many firms in devel ‘oping sountries have increased thei set vo suming cdp technology by purchasing eco logicalysophiscated firms domized in high Tm acliion to dismantling baeies co for: sign invent, some mileincome coon: tres have encouraged greater FDI Hoses by implementing stronger regimes governing in rests property rights fvidence sents hae stronger intellects! property rights are svoviated sith a rie in Enowledge flows to fates and ia inward FDI flows toward Imiddleincome and lange developing coun tres, hut nt in poor counties) A fev coon la egal he than FDI co maximize technology transfers co
Trang 27Figure 9 Developing counties rade in technology goods hs sen
local firms Howeves, thin strategy seems to ‘work ony foe countries with substantial ma Set power: In parca, fear of losing conte over catingedge technologies sometions nutes maulisational firms forced toto joiat ‘entues ta reserve thei be technologies for the dome market and tanser only older Jee eins ones Substantial technology transfers are aso a existed with iterations! wigration and the diaspora of developing countries Not all of these are postive, Eventhough 93 percent of universiyeducited individuals from develop jing counts turn to oF emai in tei cou eyo gin Dacgce and Marfouk 2008), the ‘rn drinis aserios problem fora number of ‘mostly small counties, However the existence of a welkedacaed disspora (more highly skilled individuals migrate than lowered Inivdils) constitutes 28 important techno logical source forthe home countey—= bri tin, ait wer This especialy thease when weak employment prospet in the home coun tty reduce the ceonomie benefits inital forgone by the individuals depactre For most coutris, high-skilled out snigeaion mains atmanagable technologically savey asporse contribute to ves these
technological transfers by svengthening rade
nd invevement linkages with more advanced conomien through netvode tac provide sce to technology and capital and through = tmitaree Remittances aoe only contribute co domestic enteprenewahip and investment, but ko, along with the introduction of mobile phone series, hve greatly expanded the pro Sslom of hunking snd other arming fi tence servos wiki devloping Cotati Hemuelien a miện earblg "process ‘eetnaloes FdHly, nhinữg minh tớ provide important resources, uch a entepre- neenhip, technology, marking kaowledee, sod anvestment capital The elles fs single = turning cnigee seed with sil scquized in a developed economy cam have (and has had large economic and techasogial effet oa the ceuans of erga
Better macroeconomic and educational polices have improved absorptive
Trang 28Figure 10 Macroeconomic stabity hab improved sinc the early 10906
hhave improved thei investment climates has rachel 7D years and continues toss, ta Their macroeconomic and polical nviron- lowrincome counties outside of Sub-Saharan ‘ments have become more sable over the past Ate, Ife expectancy is up from 59 years 15 years The number of incrnacionalcon- in 1990 to 66 yeas in 2005 fin Sub-Sabacan As has fallen by more than 30 percent since Africa, exteemely Tow incomes andthe ‘the 1990s, median inflaton has dropped from —HIVIAIDS epidemic have led to a drop in boot 20 percent in the early 19908 to less life expsstaney since 1990), The labor forse chân 5 potent, and exchange rate volality in most devstoping counties has also become has fallen by more than 50 percetieveryde- etter educated Adult teraey tates have in ‘eloping region igure 10} All these changes ceased in every developing tegon over the seduce fk nd increase she ikelhood thaten- past 15 yeas (figure 1} The shate of hil ttepreneus will tke ashance and inrodace 3 dren graduating ftom primary school ha also new technology within a country These same insta inal eons excep East Asia 3nd
Trang 29Figue 11 Literacy In8lreglene rates have increased hin PO: 27772 g8 a fe #
ttendance ate eitical, in too many esses, the ‘aly ofthe education delivered in many de ‘elping countries emaias low Lange propor ons of students offialyclastfied as hterate {ait pas international standardized tests of racy and aumeracy “Technological prostsscequtes addtional improvements in the ual ofthe labor fore leyond strengthening educational stems Tesining can make as important contebution to bh the productivity f private ims and he efficiency of public services, For example the Aissemieation ofthe simple sills regueed (0 ‘ul rainwater collection tems can impeove accesso clean dining wate ant educe the incidence of dnese And investing inthe do mea sil ieqoired so support high-kil and Iighsalue-added industries can help masinize ‘he technology spillovers rom FDL
but improvements inthe business Climate and govemance lags
In contest ro improvements i the quay of human capital business climate and gor smtanee indicators have shown lite improve ment, on average, over the past decide Governance in several countries bạc improved, norably in Cental Eueope and he Talis’ countries, proving thar morivated
Trang 30
Figure 12 Developing regions have much poorer governance than do OECD counties
gota ens paste pect
Trang 31
Box 1 Summary of empirical results Fistesnmr un, det cnn hve rogresed markedly ove the past 15 years Ava
‘ent, ecological achievement i all come roups and in very ceion has advanced more {ek than ighincome counts Secon, the technologie rome ha advanced a+ high income counre (and sme developing coun Cee ee ee eee ee ee Cute ets lags paca for low come
“Third, large exten the convergence i tech nologial achievement reflect a slant perese J the opennen of developing counts to den
Second, because ofthe complementarsy of technologies and ifessrscture, counties ‘where alder chnolages have yet to penetrate paniculacy deply may also fae limits othe sent to which eter technologies are abe to (dif, Therefore, the authorities should focus for eating tha publicly supe technolo lscrvcesere elie wey slay, ad Economically ab posuble, whether they are de Tom đơn hy th hắc o by private fps “Thin + main remaining challenge is lô ensure that technologies difse throughout the county, wot just se major cates oF tp efor firms Thi Jocs not micas trying fo eretescberch centers everywhere, bat it does requice enforing absorpive capacity 2 the aubentional level Moreoven it meas py tng atention to dssemination chanacs with countries, including domestic eassportation lnfrastractre, and the essential role to be played by the outreach, ting, marketing, fand disesination activites of aptid RECD Fourth, notwithstanding the relatively Sương inprovetnent in techologicalaciev meat by some low-income counties, maty ‘thes have improved only marginally oF ot aval In pacity impeovemients i techno logis absorptive capacity have bee ited ee eres ee el vn ca an ‘xponre of developing countries ane technalogiee Beet ee cr plot ince curs 0 make our, progres: ba ao Been made in incre ing counties orpive capacity throu in proved Inersy, eabanced educational sainment,
Se ti creat (a He progr sn improving the busines climate sd fovernnce (nh vep bs ben mach more mite oa oul technological absorptive capac is ‘vanced mck les sucky than tecnologia eee
Trang 32
` tal ners
Note 1 Sil dtd ee bea poi amt ih eight te a exon
References
{ty Technalosy Adoption Making the Theories ace he Fats” Journal of Monetary Eom std 398, Dougie Fede, and Ahielim Nha 2004 "esi the nro Moby of Sk spe Seis 381- Worl Bank, Washington, Dc ‘coe Aecomlaie Spi Ft ara Growth
HỘ Poàn,
Hal Rober ad Chases Jones 198 Why Do Som Cts Prt So Mich More Out Fe Waker Than Orloro™ The Bury oor ‘of Eso ASA
annul, Neale Joon Brel 207 "Why Dal They Ge othe United Se? rest Imigot Steer ad Eien.” Uo Bri Nitra! Siewe Roundinan Diets for Seca Behr! and’ Econom, Seats An NA oe Kanimine Daniel Are Ken, and Maino Mas
Trang 341
Prospects for Developing Countries
Following the sudden and sharp drop lá market valdations of US, moregage-backed Secures in mid-2007, global markets have tered phase of heightened uncertain “This as been reflected in increased volaliy fe equity makes, commodity prices, and exchange cates "Notwitistanding the increased voladio, the impact on developing counties has bees telatively tinge to date Rink premiuns have scalted, but rain relatively Tow ia his Corie context, and capital inflows remain plentifl although bank lending as deopped ffl Aggeegate growth in developing oun ties continues tobe strong, rellecting improved fundamentals ia many couneien, sizable revenues from commodity exports, ‘nd continue aces eo international finance ac moderately higher cost Their song B08 ‘domestic product (GDP) geowth is partially offering, weaker U.S domestic demand, ‘which i now expected to remain subdued wll inco 2008 este the resilience demonstrated by the sfobal economy, risks exist and increased ‘olny has made several developing cou tes more vulnerable to financial disturbance, ‘specially those with large eurtent account dich, pegged exchange rates, or domestic banking store tha have borrowed heavily Jn ineernatonsl markets
Growth outlook J average, developing countries have con aleted only modest by the lve dows in the United Sates during 2007, whic |S now anisipated to continue into 2008,
before picking up in 2009 GDP growth mong Tow and midlesncome cconomies ase ust OL percentage pint in 2007 trom the strong 7-5 percent recorded in 2006 Despite weaker US impor growth, cominaed robe spending by ibenporting counties and tibrant expansions in China and Indi ate po jected co keep developingcountey growth Strona at 7 percent or moe 2008 ad 2008 ‘Over the longer ter, the resilience of de~ Seloping countees improved fundamentals wl be testeds More prudent maeroccononic ‘management and technological progess (ce chapters 2 and 3} have conabuted to an «casein tral factor prodtivity (TFP) and real income geowrh over the pas 15 yeas (Over the next 10 years, these aime factors are expected to ctable developing counties do Achieve annual pee capita income gins of 5.9 perent and perhaps as muchas 34 per- ent inthe following decade, These projec- tions imply per capita income growth hat ‘more than ewe as fist 8 that in highncome Councies, Growth of sich magniide would
reduce the number of people living on Tess than a dolar a day fom 1.2 billion in 1990 tnd 970 milion in 2008 t0 624 milion by 2015 Such aggregate outcomes are ho gia" fnteed hovteves and peetormance across in- ‘vidual countries key 0 be diverse, Taflation bạc remained remarkably mated worldwide despite four jeans øf sương frowth Many developing counties have com> Tained domestic inflation following s ghen ing of monetary and đe pleie The sharp increases in commodity prises mainly had ‘mete direc impaces on inflation, wih oly
Trang 35
Aiited second-round effects, Moreover thei ning integration of developing counties into global mactees and thes rising shares fa ‘world trade have belped daripen inflation Blobally through heightened saterational Competition Insome countries, however al tion may become aa increasing challenge: Ta several vilesporting countnes, spending of ‘et export revenues is beating up domenic ‘markets In Cina ffs slow growth may sot succe in quickly reversing a ecet ace ration of inflation, and: demaod presi emain pronounced in setenl countries i Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and ức Cadbbcan, la Sub-Saharan Africa, the Combination of song domestic demand and ising international grain prces could push ` lanly i imporedependent const stats Continved high and increasing oil pices have stimulated the use of food cops for bio fuel and ised ferazer cont, Piss of mie ain vegstable os incteased by 33 and 50 pe en especie daring 2007, Wheat produ ‘ion fell shore of sonsmpion pay beause ie has been dsplced by maize and party Icnise of adverse weather conditions As & rest stocks have ceached hist lows, and ‘wheat prices have jumped 30 perent Fm a macroeconomic perspective, these rice in sreases have hit lowincome counties the haedestreskingin a rermsof sade loss equal 0055 percer of the GDP, wit the poorest, urban and nonfaeming rue segments ofthe population hearing the greatest hucden White Experience shows that sect a earstd in: ome sppore, athe han price conto tắc most effete way #0 help these valerate onsumery the inwitronal requirements for Sst sfey nets ean be daunting
Risks he financial eurbulence hat emerged inmid- 21907 has demonstrated how sodden and enssie slusment in #nancol viet cam Eenue the dynamics of nancial behavior sr inhereralyeificul to contol and becuse
seveerhianliantsoroee han ade ely: inthe location or magnitude of undeing ok cule the roi of a breakdown ia hey
Financial inttution o ayiaem cannot ke ly dacounted Moreover the Htihood of Bian fia poles would iereste rapidly if home fics in the United States were co fal pesipi= tous a event that could pus the US eon omy ito recession, Sich dreumntanees, nd the likely US monesry policy reaction, would reinforce the dolar’ ld, wi a consequent stabilizing “To dat, strong fundamentals in developing eft on global makes counties have helped mitigate the slowdown in the United Sates, but ia the ease of major đc ‘pion adverse ets inemergng markers are
tnlkely eo be avoided, which a some poi ‘wouldexacerbate the US, slowdown, Subst Tally tighter financial conditions could generate ‘credit crunch chat would ave consequences for investment and growth in middleincome counties, Low-income counties would also Sutfee substantial sepeeassions resulting from ‘weaker global demand for commodities, price declines and erms-terade loses Even with- ‘out forte even in international Financia markers, several developing counties have become more vulnerable to final pressure ava result of heightened anviety and increased ‘oat in foreign exchange markers Another important risk s that the loosening ‘of moneraty policy in response tothe US ub prime morgage cis sould case growth £0 ‘vershooe Commodity markets could tighten further inflationary pressures would mount, and financial imalanses would increase Father than recede Sch a scenario could 30% the sods of # mush shaper slowdown inthe medium eer and ilastates the caren chal Tenge facing money authorities in both high income and developing countries
Financial markets: Needed
Trang 36` 1 fvide seekel search for yok that indoced any imvestor to take on aditional risk This ‘vas supported by eobast global growth nd favorable Rania conditions, fling 2 four sear espansion i the labs edit eele, Rapid rohan the market forase-backed securities nd structured financial products (collateral ‘aed debt obligations in paticulae) throughout ‘major Banca enters autated oth lending {by making the calibration and elaine of sis easier) and Borrowing (by fete i ‘essing ligt and the availablity of ce Emerging macket bond spreads dednel lơ cor fos and equity prices increased rapily Jn many developing counres during the fist Tal of 2007 However the degre of cn was Specialy underestimated in the lower credit gen ofthe U.S mortgage market (ub prime aad “ale-A" oars, and ence the value fof many weetbackel seoudio was groly — ‘Corrections to this overvaluation began suxenty ia Lte Joly and sing deaulr ates inthe US subprime morgage marke spilled ‘over into equity currency and bond markers ‘worldwide Credit conditions for corporate borrowers tighened significant, while gov examen bond viel declined shaepy ia what fe known asa "light quality.” Spreads on noninvesmene grade USS corporate secures ‘widened by 200 basis point in oly and the first half of August indicating that investors ppetit for tsk bad diminished consider (figure 1.1} In mi-Augas, the U.S Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank pro: ded ample guy to the banking sem 10 help seablze financial conditions The selloff in raky ast served to widen ‘merging market hond spreads by about 100, hai pont by mi Augan,rasing the cos of apt for corporate horowers in boh mạc re and emerging markets Ax Finacial on Alone rigtened once more neat the end of the yeap U.S high-ield spreads jumped to {00 basis points by the end of November tnd emerging market spreads retested, then Inereated 0 270 asi points, with he overall
Figure 1.4 The perceived akineas of high {ld corporate bonds nressed move than {hat of emerging market bonds PIAL POOLS SPER OS —'
widening atiburable to the current episode ‘moving to 170 pois ven though the curmoil has affected emerging markets, 50 far the finanial fall hasbeen Knited hough nevertheless more se- flows than othe fey short-lived episodes of marker turbslence and volatility that have occured since 2008 (gure Lợi, Hight co
Figure 12 Emerging markt asso salt ‘mote sovere than dung ator poids of ‘marke turbulence
Trang 37
Figure 1 Global equity markets fl then recovered by emerging markets 7343 FOOLS SE SO i wht oc
All and the need eover losses in the Subprime marker provoked a selhaff across che chữ speqrum of hoc set in mạ ‘re and emerging markers: Equity price de lines ia emerging market economies initially "exceeded those in mature markers, bt emer ing markets eebounded sharply, outpacing fans in -mature makers (figure 1.3) The Morgan-eanley composite index of emer ingimarket socks picked up close eo 50 pe sent fom the beginning of the yeu, ell Shove the dexsloped: markets before both terested in tandem by late Novertber The rebound In emerging, marker equities was Table 11 Gross capi en rg he
underscored by a eesumpion of inflows te uty fd, whic had experienced oul ff some 85 kien dưng lúc ủy ad chi ‘August Ut cel corrections were global in naniee and stock cachanges in East Aa and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean were continuing to drive sid recover in emersing market equ ‘Gres capital flows co developing coustsies showed ste gains in 2007 before financial ‘uncertainties ave, Baad issuance, bank loan simniiment, sa củdấy placements together averaged $53 billion 9 month from January Uwowgh Joly, up trom S41 billon during 2006, but decline in August dropped flows te $42 billion (able 1.1) The snge inflows before August Was concentrated tn bond is- Soance and equity placement, and these eate- ove intially experienced he steepest flat alter the turmoil BY Octobe, bord and eg tity lows hal scovered fully or alot fly, but sharp falloff in bank lending eocrged, vith commiaments dropping $25 billion dur- ing the month, Viewed on the bass of only roderate increases in sovercign spread, the Taek of bond issuance in August and Septem bet may have rested desiions by govern ments in developing counties to postpone new issuance besitee of limited financing reeds rather than an inability to acess the market However, fr corporate borrowers in ‘merging economies, which accounted for N0 perent of bond issuance doting 2007, Finacial condtions have deteriorated The Acline in banking flows is a concen, possibly releting paral eansctm withdrawal rom
Trang 38
energy mien: as bee gheclt, eed ces, Hàm chiếc main ha nuee + ae Hi Hoa tam, hecing le) wih dasosal rooseee, Š ty xgbobb me dezrherlseeis: lg rapid el cet comes for both fiber aie nh tối báotge tHirsEx, A=ong developing couse
smsncd lim at 74 pee in 2007, air Global growth fe four Jos offobust GDP and ade ied by continued strength in Ene and tauily sag 75 perce in 2006, ce
growth, Sead ieteasing commodity Sowh Asia M China and Inia ate exclude, ‘wees low bord market spends gradually scNity i lows art middleincome counties hanging interes tes and relate sable spe by 02 percentage pins to 5.7 peat
` ` ithe yea
ets hs increased Conlitons in labalfinan~ Hs 2008, global growth is expected to mod {Sal markets have tured from exceptionally eat farthe, asthe elective cost of capital r= favorable oss stable and less preicabl, More than in recent years eserves and and househols Weak domestic demands ex- ans elevate for ancl nstttions firs other butlers will he needed to absorb unex~ pected to keep US GDP growth below 2 pe pected shocks Policy makers must prepare cet in 2008, wie growl in Europe snd both forthe posbity thar their economies pan should continue to ease under the addi ‘may slow shaply and for the possiblity that onal Weight of appreciating cuerencies {romth may sontinoe vo exeted potential OECD import demand is projeted to move Similar hey must prepare for the possibility Soma sold 6.8 perce gainin 200710 5.4 pe fof an abrupe depression of ther ureencies cet during 2008, slowingexpore growthin de- {s wel as the possibilty thar coninaed caps sloping countees y a point to 11 percent and {al inflows coult push them up Commasity dampening tei output growth 071 percent [ces may spike or they could give up part of The OECD counties are anticipated tr the grins realized this decade Despite such a volatile climate aggregate Stability in financial markets helps revive con cover daring the course of 2008, a etuning growth is Hkely to remain robust for the dex sumer and business confidence and residential ‘loping counties, mainly Because of strong,
Alomestic momentum in mor of ther Indeed,
Economie performance for many developing
‘conomies was excrpsonsly abuse dunn [ PA9We 14 Astopdown ingrowth in 2008 tắc Ret ha of 2007, much sronger than am | Aeuoomemmloixmg
Seipated in Gla Development Finance in| 3 = can 2007 (World Bank 20073), Table 1.2 and figure 14 summarize recent | 4| ÝÏ— ý
developments and the bạc cae outlook ‘ord grow coed fom 3.9 percent in 2006 026 pero n 2007, with he slowdown led by members ofthe Organisation for Economie Govoperation and Development (OECD) ‘Their GDP dipped by 0.3 prsntage pis to 218 pereet in the gear The downturn was
‘more marked in the United States, with | & ¢ & gS SS vết
iow swing frm 29 percent in 2006 t2 22 percent in 2007, Mac of the destine
Trang 39
2 ‘Table 1.2 The global outlook in summary, 2005-08 et ew! 8 a bờ a = sees Em Ệ # Ệ Ặ
Cindy, ane mans na Tung ed Kno an send Sone nh nam
Gils Mle mcd ace fot ea Sie expe iS ear,
Trang 40investment: bottoms’ nh, On_agerestey froth in developing countries is expected to be robust in both 2008 and 2009, emaining st oralove 7 percnt
The high-income countries
Among OECD counties, the Rot quarters of 2007 appeared to bet prelude to more ‘oll growth (igure 15 US GDP weak toed share tu the Bet gunrer, before ee Sounding to 38 and 4.9 percent in the second and tind quarters onthe strength of busines favestment inthe second quarter, suspen strong cocatmér demand ard svek-beillng fa the third, and strona net exports ia bot Tht high-frequency dita pint to weaker con sumption growth inthe fourth quart and for the year 36a whole, 22 percent growth is expected, 0.7 percentage points below 2006 seull figure 16 Ts conteast, Japan andthe Euro Acca ma tained a favorable pace of growth in the fist ‘quarteg with busines confidence breaching {cord highs, but developments inthe second quarter were disappointing In Europe, 8 tacachmeat in business capital outlays more a hated GDP gains ofthe previous quae ter while in Japan, aside ia fied investment ‘teed growth ive a dese, Thin quater sults for Eueope povided an upside surprise,
Figure 5 Volatile patarns of growth smong OECD counties nh Figure 16 Tghtr ere and woak
ith growth cturning to a favorable 29 per- se, GDP gains were broadly based aevos Counts, while business investment, stocks, AI consumer spending in France and (Germany revised to spur overall goth The Japanese economy rebounded mod- estly i the thd quarter as well to register roweh of LS peecen alter a 18 percent de- line in the previous quarter based on much improved tet export and a moderate boost © household spending, For 2007 a6 a whole, European geowth ss expected to eester s strong 2.7 percent ising the Unied Sats forthe first tne in more than a decade, sad rowth io Japan should register 2 perce GDP growth in the United States is jeetedto weiken forthe in 2008, fling co 9 percent Dating the yeas, continuing di ules i the commercial poper marke, the Source of working capital for most US busi- tes, iplice a hose in the effective cost of shoreterm funds, despite a cumulative rede tion of 100 bass poins in Federal fands over September through December, which carted the eae to 4.25 percents Recovery i anti: pated for 2009, ith growth registering