This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation. 6 Jump down to document Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment View document details This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. Limited Electronic Distribution Rights For More Information Support RAND The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE, SAFETY, AND ENVIRONMENT This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Aptitude for Destruction Volume 2 Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups Brian A. Jackson John C. Baker Kim Cragin John Parachini Horacio R. Trujillo Peter Chalk Prepared for the National Institute of Justice The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Aptitude for destruction : organizational learning in terrorist groups and its implications for combating terrorism / Brian A. Jackson [et al.] . p. cm. “MG-331.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3764-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorists. 2. Organizational learning. 3. Terrorism—Prevention—Government policy. I. Jackson, Brian A. (Brian Anthony) II.Title. HV6431.A67 2005 303.6'25—dc22 2005003983 “MG-332.” ISBN 0-8330-3767-6 Photo courtesy of iStockphoto.com Inc. Copyright 2005 iStockphoto Inc. Online at http://www.iStockphoto.com/Photographer: John Bohannon Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth The research described in this report was supported by Grant No. 2003- IJ-CX-1022 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The research was conducted within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation, for the National Institute of Justice. Points of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. iii Preface Continuing conflicts between violent groups and states generate an ever-present de- mand for higher quality and more timely information to support operations to com- bat terrorism. In particular, better ways are needed to understand how terrorist and insurgent groups adapt over time into more-effective organizations and increasingly dangerous threats. To adapt, terrorist organizations must learn. A group’s ability to learn determines its chance of success, since learning is the link between what the group wants to do and its ability to gather the needed information and resources to actually do it. Despite the importance of terrorist group learning, comparatively little focused research effort has been directed at understanding this process and identify- ing the factors that influence group learning ability. While relevant data and insights can be found in the literature on terrorism and terrorist organizations, this informa- tion has not been collected and systematically analyzed to assess its importance from the perspective of efforts to combat terrorism. This study addresses that need in an effort to both analyze current understanding and stimulate further study and research in this area. The National Institute of Justice provided funding to the RAND Corporation to conduct an analysis of organizational learning in terrorist groups and assess its im- plications for efforts to combat terrorism. The work was performed between Novem- ber 2003 and November 2004, a period during which the threat of international ter- rorism was high and concern about the capabilities of terrorist organizations and how they might change over time was a central focus of policy debate and U.S. homeland security planning. The study is described in this report and in a companion volume, Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, which applies the analytical framework described in the second part of this report to the practical demands of in- telligence and law enforcement activities. This report should be of interest to a wide range of audiences, including profes- sionals with interests in terrorism, counterterrorism, emergency response planning, and homeland security. It extends RAND’s ongoing research on terrorism and do- mestic security issues. Related RAND publications include the following: iv Aptitude for Destruction • Brian A. Jackson et al., Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ. • Brian A. Jackson et al., Protecting Emergency Responders: Lessons Learned from Terrorist Attacks, CF-176-OSTP, 2002. • Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, MR-1782-AF, 2004. • Peter Chalk and William Rosenau, Confronting the “Enemy Within”: Security Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies, MG-100-RC, 2004. • Bruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, OP-127-IPC/ CMEPP, 2004. This research was conducted within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Envi- ronment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation. The mission of RAND ISE is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential built and natural assets; and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. The ISE research portfolio encompasses research and analysis on a broad range of policy areas includ- ing homeland security, criminal justice, public safety, occupational safety, the envi- ronment, energy, natural resources, climate, agriculture, economic development, transportation, information and telecommunications technologies, space exploration, and other aspects of science and technology policy. Inquiries regarding RAND Infra- structure, Safety, and Environment may be directed to: Debra Knopman, Vice President and Director RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, Virginia 22202 703-413-1100 Email: ise@rand.org http://www.rand.org/ise v Contents Preface iii Figures and Tables ix Acknowledgments xi Abbreviations and Acronyms xiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction Brian A. Jackson 1 The Need to Both Describe and Explain Learning 2 About This Study 3 About This Report 5 References 6 Part I: Case Studies Prologue 9 CHAPTER TWO Aum Shinrikyo John Parachini 11 Introduction 11 Background 12 Operations and Tactics 18 Training 25 Logistics 27 Intelligence and Operational Security 31 Conclusions 32 References 34 CHAPTER THREE Hizballah, the Party of God Kim Cragin 37 Introduction 37 Background 37 Operations and Tactics 40 vi Aptitude for Destruction Training 47 Logistics 48 Intelligence and Operational Security 51 Conclusions 53 References 54 CHAPTER FOUR Jemaah Islamiyah John C. Baker 57 Introduction 57 Background 59 Operations and Tactics 66 Training 76 Logistics 79 Intelligence and Operational Security 80 Conclusions 84 References 89 CHAPTER FIVE Provisional Irish Republican Army Brian A. Jackson 93 Introduction 93 Background 94 Operations and Tactics 97 Training 119 Logistics 125 Intelligence and Operational Security 126 Conclusions 133 References 138 CHAPTER SIX The Radical Environmentalist Movement Horacio R. Trujillo 141 Introduction 141 Background 142 Operations and Tactics 152 Training 161 Intelligence and Operational Security 163 Conclusions 164 References 172 Contents vii Part II: Theory and Application Prologue 179 CHAPTER SEVEN Theory: Organizational Learning as a Four-Component Process Horacio R. Trujillo and Brian A. Jackson 181 Acquisition 183 Interpretation 185 Distribution 186 Storage 187 References 187 CHAPTER EIGHT Application: The Four Components of Organizational Learning in the Case Study Groups Brian A. Jackson 191 Acquisition 191 Interpretation 195 Distribution 196 Storage 198 CHAPTER NINE Concluding Observations Brian A. Jackson 199 [...]... presents results from our review of the organizational learning and terrorism literatures and the case studies of learning in individual terrorist organizations A companion report, Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, focuses on the application of these concepts to policy for combating terrorism That report... Two through Six present case studies of organizational learning in five terrorist organizations The studies draw on information available in the literature and expert interviews to explore the groups motivations for learning, the areas in which they have chosen to learn, the outcomes of their learning efforts, and—to the extent possible—how they carried out those efforts In each case study, the author... organizational learning has not been a primary focus of analytical efforts aimed at these groups For some, information was available on group motivations and topics of learning but not on the processes through which learning efforts were actually carried out Available information sources contained almost no insights about some components of group learning for example, the internal decisionmaking involved in selecting... examining each terrorist group began his or her work with a common set of areas to explore, including the group’s motivations for learning, the areas it chose to learn, the outcomes, and—to the extent possible—how it carried out its learning efforts The case study process included review of available published information on each group’s learning activities, supplemented by examination of other information... and reviewing a set of case studies of organizations that have used terrorism as a component of their violent activities We selected five organizations for these case studies: 5 1 Review of the literature on organizational learning 5 Al Qaeda was deliberately not selected to be a case study group The goal of the study was to examine organizational learning across different types of terrorist. .. learning, the occurrence of change is not sufficient to indicate that organizational learning has occurred Changes are not necessarily intentional; they can be made unintentionally or for exogenous reasons incidental to the behavior that is changed (e.g., a change may occur in one area simply as a result of a change made in another) In this study, we define learning 1 2 Aptitude for Destruction A terrorist. .. 5 .2 5.3 5.4 7.1 Organizational Structure of Hizballah 45 Organizational Structure of the Provisional Irish Republican Army 96 Results of PIRA Use of RPGs, IPGs, and PRIGs, May 1981–March 19 92 109 Model of Tactical Decisionmaking by Terrorist Organizations 111 Learning Processes in Tactical Planning 114 Component Processes of an Organizational Learning Framework 1 82 Tables 4.1 4 .2. .. Approximately 25 individuals participated in the workshop, where discussions were held on a not -for- attribution basis The workshop focused on practical insights into how to improve the design of policies for combating terrorism Starting with the preliminary results of the case studies, the discussion explored how analytical approaches based on organizational learning might be relevant and applicable to combating... (last accessed October 21 , 20 04) Stern, Jessica, “The Protean Enemy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol 82, No 4, 20 03, pp 27 –40 Thomas, Troy S., and William D Casebeer, Violent Systems: Defeating Terrorists, Insurgents, and Other Non-State Adversaries, Colorado Springs, CO: United States Air Force Academy, United States Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, 20 04 Part I: Case Studies Prologue Chapters... announced the ministries, it named twelve ministers, a head of its House Agency, a head of its Secretariat, and Asahara, the founder The Senate investigators identified 12 people out of a listing of 65 as being “Key Aum Members.” In 1990, the group’s electoral slate included 25 people, none of whom were group ministers 2 For a chart depicting the Aum shadow government and the names of the ministers, . objectivity. Aptitude for Destruction Volume 2 Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups Brian A. Jackson John C. Baker Kim Cragin John. P.O. Box 21 38, Santa Monica, CA 90407 -2 1 38 120 0 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22 2 0 2- 5050 20 1 North Craig Street, Suite 20 2, Pittsburgh, PA 1 521 3-1 516 RAND