HAIHACO financial statement analysis

HAIHACO Financial Statement Analysis User Tutor: Ms Lê Thanh Bình Phan Huy Hùng 0|Page Lecturer: Ms Đỗ Vân Anh 1104040034 Vương Thị Mai 1104040059 Đinh Thị Huyền Trang 1104040098 Phạm Thị Hải Yến 1104040119 Nguyễn Quang Hưng 1004040042 Nguyễn Mỹ Hạnh 1004010016 Kiều Thị Khuyên 1007010128 ACKNOWLEGMENT We would like to express our deepest appreciation to all those who provided us the opportunities to complete this report A special gratitude we give to our lecturer, Ms Do Van Anh, who has delivered us valuable lessons so that we can have knowledge to conduct the report We would also like to acknowledge with much appreciation to Ms Le Thanh Binh Without her guidance and encouragement, this report can’t be completed A sincere thank to all our friends, who are willing to share with us their knowledge and materials relating to our report 1|Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report would perform analysis on Hai Ha company and evaluate the company’s share In order to analyze company’s financial position, performance and risk, a number of analysis are performed, including: Industry analysis: Porter Five Forces model is used Company strategy analysis:  Nature of product: Hai Ha chooses cost leadership strategy in order to enhance its sale revenue  Degree of integration within the value chain: Hai Ha involves in phrases out of 5: commodity processing, product and distribution  Degree of geographical diversification: Dominant market is the North of Vietnam and Company is expanding to the South  Degree of industry diversification: Focus on producing, processing and distributing cake and candy products Accounting analysis: Since 2013, Hai Ha applies the new circular 45/2013/ TT-BTC for accounting policies Financial Analysis:  Liquidity risk: Hai Ha has relatively low liquidity risk  Solvency risk: Since company did not depend on the long term debt, the insolvency risk has been low  Profitability analysis: Hai Ha is relatively profitable compared to average industry  Cash flow analysis: There are wide fluctuations in operating cash flow, cash flows from investing and financing activities To eveluate company’s share price, forecasting balance sheet, income statement and statement of cash flow would be the first tasks Then, dividend-based approach and cash flow-based method are employed to perform valuations The valuation results indicate that HHC share price is presently overvalued Therefore, it can be concluded that HHC share should not be bought at this time 2|Page Table of Contents ACKNOWLEGMENT I Introduction II Industry analysis Threat of new entrants: Low Buyer power: high Bargaining powers of suppliers: Low Threat of substitutes: low Degree of competitive rivalry: medium III Company strategy analysis The Nature of Products Degree of Integration in Value chain Geographical diversification Industry diversification IV ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS 10 Accounting quality 10 Accounting policies: 10 Accounting date adjustment 11 V Financial Analysis 11 Liquidity risk 11 Table1: Liquidity risk 12 Long-term solvency risk 13 Profitability ratios analysis 15 Cash flows analysis 18 VI Valuation 19 Forecasting 19 1.1 Projecting Sales 19 1.2 Projecting Operating expense 20 1.3 Projecting Operating Assets and Liabilities on the Balance Sheet 21 3|Page 1.4 Project financial leverage, common equity and financial income& expenses 23 1.5 Projecting Dividend payments Error! Bookmark not defined Valuation 25 2.1 Required rate of return estimation 25 VII 2.2 Growth rate 26 2.3 Valuation models and sensitivity analysis 26 Conclusion and recommendation 27 REFERENCES 28 APPENDICES 28 Appendix A: Income statement - Actual and Forecasted 29 Appendix B: Balance sheet- Actual and Forecasted 32 Appendix C: Statement of cash flow – Actual and Forecasted 38 Appendix D: Data for Beta calculation 42 Appendix E: Evaluation model 54 Appendix F: Forecasting items 58 4|Page I Introduction Hai Ha Confectionery Joint Stock Company (HaiHaCo) is one of the largest company in the industry The company has expanded their production from 2,000 tons per year at the beginning to 20,000 tons today The business activities include manufacturing and distribution of confectionery products The company’s markets are mainly in the North, particularly in Hanoi It also has branches in Da Nang and Ho Chi Minh City HaiHaCo has built many factories in Hanoi, Viettri City (Phu Tho Province), Thai Binh City, with about ten production lines to meet the demand of its products For years, thanks to the good quality, Hai Ha becomes a very wellknown brand in Vietnam HaiHaCo’s products has also been exported to Japan, Taiwan, Russia, the Middle East and Asian countries; and in the future, the company plans to export is products to European countries Hai Ha went public in 2007 The company’s share (HHC) is presently traded on the Hanoi Stock Exchange The company’s market share accounts for 6.5% in the confectionery industry In comparison with about 30 competitors, HaiHaCo is one of the best-known brand, thanks to its competitive advantages of low pricing strategy and diversified products Target market of the firm is averageincome class The firm has also attempted to diversify its market base by targeting high-income customers Variety of high-end products, such as moon cake, have been introduced to penetrate this market In addition, quality of products are always ensured The brand name HaiHaCo is also in Vietnam Top 100 In the competitive environment, Hai Ha company is currently focusing on investment in new facilities and new technology to produce more qualified goods with lower production costs in order to strenthen its position II Industry analysis Threat of new entrants The confectionary industry has a moderately high threat of new entrants because of high market’s growth rate as well as no barrier to entry New rivals are mainly well-known foreign businesses, namely Orion, Kraft and Nestle These enterprises normally penetrate into Vietnam market through M&A transactions They are willing to invest hundreds of millions dollar to acquire famous brands of Vietnam For instance, that Lotte corporation intends to acquire Bibica 5|Page has obtained attention from the media Foreign companies also have huge advanges in management and technology Efficient management, combined with advanced technology, may help them not only enhance sales revenue but reduce productions costs as well Their earnigs, therefore, outperform domestic corporations They also organize extensive marketing campaign to improve their brand recognition Domestic corporations’ market shares would be threatened if there is no strategic plan to compete with foreign competitors Bargaining powers of buyers The bargaining power of buyers is quite high in the confectionery industry for the following reasons First, the success of confectionery products is usually determined by the consumer preferences In other words, buyers have a right to choose products that are suitable for their taste Confictionery, thus, need to understand their customer’s demand if they not want them to buy other competitors’ products Second, consumers can switch to other products easily because of numerous substitute goods Confectionery firms normally offer similar products with the nearly equal quality Prices, in addition to quality, therefore becomes an imporatant factor to attract consumers High competition would force price of those products to be kept at a low level Bargaining powers of suppliers More than 70% of the annual total outputs from Hai Ha Company are candy; thus, sugar is the most important element The sugar market is distributed quite evenly among different sugar companies In addition, sugar can be imported from other countries such as Thailand and Brazil with competitive price As a result, there is no exclusive source of supply, which lessens the pressure on sugar input for the firm While sugar can be partly supplied by domestic sources, nearly all of the rest of the ingredients need to be imported Consequently, the price of those ingredients would be greatly affected by economic conditions (inflation and exchange rate) as well as other unexpected factors (catastrophe, etc.) All in all, the bargaining powers of suppliers towards the company are rather low as the threat of rising price is not coming from suppliers themselves but the above-mentioned factors Threat of substitutes 6|Page The threat of being replaced is also relatively low Confectionery products, in general, has been prevalent in Vietnam Particularly, they would be a good choice in Tet holiday In case of Hai Ha, its target customers are those with low and average income This class of customers comprises the largest proportion in Vietnam Therefore, Hai Ha products may have a strong position in Vietnamese market Hai Ha products might be less competitive in superior markets, but it is difficult for its products to be replaced in lower-ranking markets Degree of competitiveness among existing rivalry There is a tough competition between existing companies The number of large-to-medium sized confectionery companies has been 30 so far Among those companies, Kinh Do and Bibica are considered the two biggest rivals of Hai Ha corporation Even though each company has some distinctive products, for example Kinh Do with crackers and cookies, Bibica with candies and sponge cakes and Hai Ha with soft candies, the majority of their products are still similar Hai Ha company, in order to keep its foothold in the market, constantly needs to improve the products’ quality and at the same time, maintain the competitive price and expand the distribution system In addition, main competitors have also planned to enter into average-income markets This may threaten Hai Ha’s position in these market The company would, in addition to pricing strategy, need to plan marketing strategies to enhance its image and keep customers’ loyalty III Company strategy analysis The Nature of Products As stated earlier, Hai Ha company is one of the biggest corporations in Vietnam confectionary industry Hai Ha brand is well-recognized in Vietnam Main products of the company include various types of candy and cake, such as sweet candy, chew, cookies and so forth Main competitors in the industry are other domestic confectionary corporations such as Kinh Do Products produced and sold by Hai Ha would be similar to products of these competitors Therefore, the company may face a fierce competition Additionally, Vietnam confectionary market has great potential of growth in the future A number of businesses have planned to penetrate into the market For instance, Lotte Corporation has intended to acquire Bibica since 2013 and has strengthened its presence in Vietnam Thus, the market will be increasingly 7|Page competitive For this reason, the company has chosen cost leadership strategy in order to enhance its sales level The company concentrates on the average-income segment by setting lower prices than its competitors Hai Ha attempts to make its products widely present in countrysides where people tend to consume inexpensive commodities As a result, Hai Ha products would become familiar to Vietnamese people because average-income class comprises nearly 65% of the population Degree of Integration in Value chain Value change of the confectionary industry Raw materials Commodity Processing Production Distribution (Wholesale or Retail) Hai Ha Company has not engaged in all phases of the value chain The company may involve in three phases, including commodity processing, product and distribution, whereas all raw materials would be purchased from domestic agribusinesses or imported from foreign countries The reason for the company’s success might be the segmentation strategy that targets to averageincome people, with a distribution system reaching every corner of Vietnam This would help products of the company be present everywhere in Vietnam A large number of Vietnamese people would have average income Thus, using low price strategy to compete with other competitors might be an efficient and effective strategy Controlling prices of raw material might play a vital role because of cost leadership strategy An increase in prices of raw materials could lead to a corresponding increase in the price of products Hence, a good relationship with suppliers can benefit to the company in negotiating purchase price of raw materials However, price competition might not be an optimal strategy in the long run The reason would be that low selling price will make profit margin stay at a low level Further, low-income segment has been a target of other competitors and these companies, with sound financial position, are willing to lower the price to compete with Hai Ha company Thus, it is necessary 8|Page for Hai Ha Company to penetrate other market segments such as high-income markets Diversifying its product types might also be a good strategy to attract more customers With regards to distribution channels, products are distributed through agents of the company This would help the company save sale commission, which keeps the price of products relatively low in comparison to other competitors However, improving efficiencies of the distribution system would be essential for reducing selling expenses and promoting profit margin Geographical diversification Geographic markets of the company include Northern markets and some areas in the Central Ha Noi is the main market in the North Other markets include Lao Cai, Yen Bai and Hai Phong In the South, Hai Ha focuses on Ho Chi Minh city where there is a very high demand for consumption The firm would have limited presence in markets other than the above-mentoined It has only one agent in the Middle and the other one in the South areas The company is studying these markets before deciding to enter into The reason for its caution might be dominance of Kinh Do’s products An advantage of Hai Ha corporation is that it owns many different valuable lands throughout the country, which stimulates Hai Ha product reaching customers Nevertheless, each area has different demands for quantity and quality so, Hai Ha has to consider thoroughly before making any decision of extending its markets Also, strengthening its main markets might be more important than entering into a new market because its market share is being threatened by other competitors Industry diversification Hai Ha com has three main business fields:  Producing and distributing cake and candy products  Import and export materials, machinery, commodity and other products  Invest in construction, lease office, malls, etc The main activities of Hai Ha company is producing and distributing cake and candy products, which accounts for 75% of the revenue The company is considering long term investments in the two other fields However, the decline of Vietnam real estate market and reduced demand for 9|Page 27/05/2014 26/05/2014 23/05/2014 22/05/2014 21/05/2014 20/05/2014 19/05/2014 16/05/2014 15/05/2014 14/05/2014 13/05/2014 12/05/2014 09/05/2014 08/05/2014 07/05/2014 06/05/2014 05/05/2014 29/04/2014 28/04/2014 25/04/2014 24/04/2014 23/04/2014 22/04/2014 21/04/2014 18/04/2014 17/04/2014 16/04/2014 15/04/2014 14/04/2014 11/04/2014 10/04/2014 08/04/2014 07/04/2014 04/04/2014 03/04/2014 02/04/2014 45 | P a g e 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 32.500 32.500 29.033 27.800 29.900 28.317 30.500 32.400 28.275 30.500 30.500 30.500 30.500 25.000 29.000 31.400 31.400 29.569 32.000 32.000 30.500 29.475 32.000 33.145 31.000 33.254 31.000 28.986 31.233 29.071 30.633 29.900 28.234 29.900 29.900 29.125 22,18% 0,00% -10,67% -4,25% 7,55% -5,29% 7,71% 6,23% -12,73% 7,87% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -18,03% 16,00% 8,28% 0,00% 8,22% 0,00% -4,69% -3,36% 8,57% 3,58% -6,47% 7,27% -6,78% -6,50% 7,75% -6,92% 5,37% -5,57% 5,90% 0,00% -2,59% 100 600 500 600 0 800 0 0 400 0 1600 0 200 300 100 0 2900 300 2410 300 3800 0 1000 1,60% 0,47% -0,04% -0,40% 1,18% 0,84% 0,67% 1,04% -1,03% 3,04% -0,61% -4,68% 2,92% -5,87% 0,88% -1,72% -2,28% 0,85% -1,01% 1,48% 0,19% -0,09% 2,10% -1,27% -2,58% 1,05% -2,01% -1,68% -0,74% -0,13% -0,32% 0,45% 1,27% 0,61% 1,34% -0,37% 1,58% 0,45% -0,06% -0,42% 1,16% 0,82% 0,65% 1,02% -1,05% 3,02% -0,63% -4,70% 2,90% -5,89% 0,86% -1,74% -2,30% 0,83% -1,03% 1,46% 0,17% -0,11% 2,08% -1,29% -2,60% 1,03% -2,03% -1,70% -0,76% -0,15% -0,34% 0,43% 1,25% 0,59% 1,32% -0,39% 552,75 541,43 542,44 543,35 537,95 531,00 530,31 522,00 529,39 510,16 508,76 536,82 522,82 550,75 558,04 561,86 578,45 578,21 580,70 580,74 571,57 573,39 569,87 568,44 580,89 583,51 585,51 597,99 602,7 602,01 608,89 603,25 602,55 593,72 590,91 586,5 542,49 544,93 545,30 547,20 543,93 537,93 534,68 529,49 537,27 529,59 518,45 536,82 542,56 550,75 561,56 562,36 580,11 570,64 573,10 571,71 566,94 567,04 556,47 558,14 565,33 575,83 567,61 586,09 596,05 594,96 600,43 598,52 595,35 588,34 582,83 574,4 127.182.990 85.780.485 85.739.404 130.117.230 102.987.620 105.111.597 106.137.980 83.778.087 132.543.153 108.324.190 98.640.761 99.260.848 118.856.310 146.492.388 52.416.806 100.641.650 76.075.700 50.435.143 58.053.730 64.320.453 56.695.829 71.202.652 99.105.330 95.569.640 116.972.898 117.693.160 149.242.265 131.668.530 128.080.220 106.926.180 114.247.627 127.466.174 115.651.254 119.718.455 105.522.983 146.779.523 01/04/2014 31/03/2014 28/03/2014 27/03/2014 26/03/2014 25/03/2014 24/03/2014 21/03/2014 20/03/2014 19/03/2014 18/03/2014 17/03/2014 14/03/2014 13/03/2014 12/03/2014 11/03/2014 10/03/2014 07/03/2014 06/03/2014 05/03/2014 04/03/2014 03/03/2014 28/02/2014 27/02/2014 26/02/2014 25/02/2014 24/02/2014 21/02/2014 20/02/2014 19/02/2014 18/02/2014 17/02/2014 14/02/2014 13/02/2014 12/02/2014 11/02/2014 10/02/2014 07/02/2014 46 | P06/02/2014 age 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 28.455 30.500 28.978 28.392 27.500 28.217 29.900 32.145 24.457 29.900 29.900 29.900 24.964 29.900 26.734 27.447 26.094 27.500 26.456 26.750 28.000 28.000 25.900 27.000 23.267 27.000 26.083 27.000 25.109 26.274 29.145 25.951 26.071 26.369 29.467 22.342 27.150 26.500 25.633 -2,30% 7,19% -4,99% -2,02% -3,14% 2,61% 5,96% 7,51% -23,92% 22,26% 0,00% 0,00% -16,51% 19,77% -10,59% 2,67% -4,93% 5,39% -3,80% 1,11% 4,67% 0,00% -7,50% 4,25% -13,83% 16,04% -3,40% 3,52% -7,00% 4,64% 10,93% -10,96% 0,46% 1,14% 11,75% -24,18% 21,52% -2,39% -3,27% 1100 3600 1300 2300 0 0 0 0 8500 1600 900 400 0 4900 20 0 600 2400 3100 6100 2300 4200 500 4000 600 100 300 -1,31% -0,46% 0,70% 0,35% -2,29% -0,94% 0,96% 0,25% -0,88% 0,96% -0,08% 0,59% 0,27% 0,88% 0,26% 0,82% 0,68% 0,21% 0,63% 0,87% -0,59% -2,23% 0,29% -0,85% 0,62% 1,67% 1,05% -0,08% -1,22% 0,62% 0,76% -0,35% 0,36% 1,05% 1,87% -0,36% 1,12% -0,89% -0,33% -1,33% -0,48% 0,68% 0,33% -2,31% -0,96% 0,94% 0,23% -0,90% 0,94% -0,10% 0,57% 0,25% 0,86% 0,24% 0,80% 0,66% 0,19% 0,61% 0,85% -0,61% -2,25% 0,27% -0,87% 0,60% 1,65% 1,03% -0,10% -1,24% 0,60% 0,74% -0,37% 0,34% 1,03% 1,85% -0,38% 1,10% -0,91% -0,35% 593,03 597,22 595,7 591,7 603,68 609,46 608,64 607,22 608,51 605,91 603,21 603,24 600,68 595,22 596,38 589,45 584,81 582,24 580,04 577,50 572,28 587,11 591,36 596,4 590,77 586,2 576,58 574,61 584,1 578,77 574,56 572,85 576,18 570,68 564,25 561,83 555,9 558,51 557,29 582,30 591,57 590,59 582,81 587,52 601,85 605,95 600,26 600,03 600,42 597,78 598,7 594,51 590,36 590,02 582,20 579,98 579,10 574,58 569,97 563,55 573,37 581,63 584,79 582,96 575,49 570,07 565,33 565,31 573,86 570,16 567,89 569,38 565,27 554,26 553,9 548,56 549,37 551,45 173.005.169 119.514.830 122.367.440 151.335.930 259.085.060 261.346.500 194.824.345 229.955.020 192.916.978 192.008.410 205.401.807 170.181.160 163.926.210 133.778.877 177.883.620 162.492.886 145.025.550 157.003.150 141.304.493 105.532.293 125.571.957 143.297.444 119.388.297 225.207.222 157.700.690 141.747.900 112.732.880 116.346.370 254.367.230 153.445.030 154.772.030 159.214.880 136.937.230 145.697.620 120.916.320 170.844.850 106.904.960 119.495.580 87.875.560 27/01/2014 24/01/2014 23/01/2014 22/01/2014 21/01/2014 20/01/2014 17/01/2014 16/01/2014 15/01/2014 14/01/2014 13/01/2014 10/01/2014 09/01/2014 08/01/2014 07/01/2014 06/01/2014 03/01/2014 02/01/2014 31/12/2013 30/12/2013 27/12/2013 26/12/2013 25/12/2013 24/12/2013 23/12/2013 20/12/2013 19/12/2013 18/12/2013 17/12/2013 16/12/2013 13/12/2013 12/12/2013 11/12/2013 10/12/2013 09/12/2013 06/12/2013 05/12/2013 04/12/2013 47 | P03/12/2013 age 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 25.481 22.955 24.500 24.500 22.887 24.000 26.198 24.700 23.425 25.000 25.000 24.467 23.500 22.200 21.347 22.528 21.000 21.000 21.000 21.600 21.700 21.500 20.704 20.271 19.805 18.100 18.100 18.100 19.500 19.000 18.925 18.700 18.700 18.986 18.600 18.600 18.600 18.600 18.600 -9,91% 6,73% 0,00% -6,58% 4,86% 9,16% -5,72% -5,16% 6,72% 0,00% -2,13% -3,95% -5,53% -3,84% 5,53% -6,78% 0,00% 2,86% 0,46% -0,92% -3,70% -2,09% -2,30% -8,61% 0,00% 0,00% 7,73% -2,56% -0,39% -1,19% 0,00% 1,53% -2,03% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 4700 1100 50 6200 0 3700 400 0 1500 400 1200 3900 1000 10000 400 1400 8600 2500 2000 0 1000 500 800 0 2200 100 30 0 -0,66% 1,20% 0,30% -1,43% 1,13% 1,85% 1,88% 1,30% 0,84% 0,23% 0,42% 0,38% 0,60% 0,74% 0,20% 0,74% 0,17% -0,02% 0,86% -1,20% -0,03% 0,42% -0,24% -0,60% 0,84% -0,36% 0,20% -0,08% 0,72% -0,79% -0,17% 0,32% -1,23% 0,07% 0,22% 0,02% -0,17% -0,14% 0,61% -0,68% 1,18% 0,28% -1,45% 1,11% 1,83% 1,86% 1,28% 0,82% 0,21% 0,40% 0,36% 0,58% 0,72% 0,18% 0,72% 0,15% -0,04% 0,84% -1,22% -0,05% 0,40% -0,26% -0,62% 0,82% -0,38% 0,18% -0,10% 0,70% -0,81% -0,19% 0,30% -1,25% 0,05% 0,20% 0,00% -0,19% -0,16% 0,59% 560,49 560,19 556,5 564,61 560,18 559,93 549,88 533,54 527,09 524,59 522,32 523,06 516,98 514,2 513 509,1 506,28 506,71 506,44 507,02 510,09 507,57 506,53 509,54 509,41 508,29 508,04 506,11 505,67 506,52 509,35 507,68 511,81 513,83 514,13 512,37 512,21 513,4 514,83 556,37 553,46 550,52 551,92 547,65 548,74 536,81 527,9 522,45 520,63 518,78 518,24 513,52 509,01 509,87 504,28 503,94 503,04 499,49 500,35 506,41 503,59 503,03 505,62 505,73 504,45 504,92 503,66 502,2 502,04 505,49 503,76 504,9 510,24 510,94 509,76 507,52 510,66 508,13 65.472.100 85.521.800 68.197.050 114.735.990 91.154.110 101.980.700 114.980.130 91.792.850 126.092.570 85.746.090 68.452.030 92.706.120 88.948.710 68.629.490 71.614.380 68.130.860 50.118.840 54.996.230 59.559.870 84.731.280 70.524.800 68.852.630 70.383.710 84.085.890 97.324.320 124.366.340 111.083.574 62.331.098 73.599.900 62.698.890 66.520.640 80.162.230 103.538.540 80.981.720 102.308.070 78.639.080 103.881.666 111.829.030 125.503.230 02/12/2013 29/11/2013 28/11/2013 27/11/2013 26/11/2013 25/11/2013 22/11/2013 21/11/2013 20/11/2013 19/11/2013 18/11/2013 15/11/2013 14/11/2013 13/11/2013 12/11/2013 11/11/2013 08/11/2013 07/11/2013 06/11/2013 05/11/2013 04/11/2013 01/11/2013 31/10/2013 30/10/2013 29/10/2013 28/10/2013 25/10/2013 24/10/2013 23/10/2013 22/10/2013 21/10/2013 18/10/2013 17/10/2013 16/10/2013 15/10/2013 14/10/2013 11/10/2013 10/10/2013 48 | P09/10/2013 age 08/10/2013 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 18.532 18.010 19.400 19.700 20.000 20.119 20.200 20.000 22.462 20.000 19.800 20.000 20.000 19.800 18.000 20.034 19.011 18.200 18.154 17.800 17.800 17.500 17.500 17.500 17.200 17.200 18.500 17.500 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 16.600 16.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 -0,37% -2,82% 7,72% 1,55% 1,52% 0,60% 0,40% -0,99% 12,31% -10,96% -1,00% 1,01% 0,00% -1,00% -9,09% 11,30% -5,11% -4,27% -0,25% -1,95% 0,00% -1,69% 0,00% 0,00% -1,71% 0,00% 7,56% -5,41% -2,86% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -2,35% -3,61% 6,25% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 2200 1000 100 100 2100 200 100 200 50 500 1100 11100 9100 900 1500 100 1900 100 800 600 100 700 300 100 400 0 0 0,15% 0,01% -0,14% -0,14% 0,53% 0,16% 0,42% -0,39% 0,16% -0,35% 1,03% 0,70% 0,35% -0,31% -0,68% 0,50% -0,25% -0,53% 0,55% 0,55% 10,00% -0,07% -0,33% 0,40% 0,12% -0,86% -0,08% -0,57% 0,70% -0,20% 0,15% 0,25% 0,13% 0,65% 0,43% -0,18% -0,06% -1,17% -0,31% 0,35% 0,13% -0,01% -0,16% -0,16% 0,51% 0,14% 0,40% -0,41% 0,14% -0,37% 1,01% 0,68% 0,33% -0,33% -0,70% 0,48% -0,27% -0,55% 0,53% 0,53% 9,98% -0,09% -0,35% 0,38% 0,10% -0,88% -0,10% -0,59% 0,68% -0,22% 0,13% 0,23% 0,11% 0,63% 0,41% -0,20% -0,08% -1,19% -0,33% 0,33% 509,48 508,78 509,15 513,25 510,75 509,72 506,46 510,21 505,75 507,63 507,41 502,12 498,82 498,62 501,36 501,08 500,47 503,3 502,52 500,28 498,49 499,27 500,59 500,97 497,74 501,86 503,17 505,74 504,81 502,95 503,72 501,39 502,64 500,6 495,72 495,67 498,58 501,64 502,52 502,64 507,1 506,05 506,99 507,66 504,65 506,08 502,83 503,54 502,98 504,71 503,44 497,72 496,12 495,68 496,79 497,41 498,51 499,29 499,58 495,84 495,68 496,93 497,41 497,95 494,01 496,46 499,53 500,64 501,41 498,74 500,25 497,91 498,83 495,02 492,37 492,81 494,53 494,81 498,98 497,58 77.687.566 101.245.300 77.302.730 97.463.060 87.740.550 89.988.180 100.735.280 169.313.020 103.452.470 91.657.220 113.389.010 90.780.020 60.230.390 63.518.970 118.886.010 87.692.440 63.364.460 104.887.510 76.253.370 74.452.200 62.434.130 38.485.380 38.620.230 34.869.860 48.772.840 60.698.540 59.990.570 84.151.930 77.783.670 68.523.680 109.720.270 67.031.980 60.617.540 68.958.650 49.217.000 34.865.050 52.493.570 63.565.500 62.003.910 69.394.720 07/10/2013 04/10/2013 03/10/2013 02/10/2013 01/10/2013 30/09/2013 27/09/2013 26/09/2013 25/09/2013 24/09/2013 23/09/2013 20/09/2013 19/09/2013 18/09/2013 17/09/2013 16/09/2013 13/09/2013 12/09/2013 11/09/2013 10/09/2013 09/09/2013 06/09/2013 05/09/2013 04/09/2013 03/09/2013 02/09/2013 30/08/2013 29/08/2013 28/08/2013 27/08/2013 26/08/2013 23/08/2013 22/08/2013 21/08/2013 20/08/2013 19/08/2013 16/08/2013 15/08/2013 49 | P14/08/2013 age 13/08/2013 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 17.000 17.000 16.000 17.000 17.200 17.000 17.000 16.000 17.000 18.000 18.000 17.400 18.000 17.500 17.000 18.500 18.500 16.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 19.245 18.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 18.500 16.000 18.500 18.000 17.000 18.675 18.550 18.500 17.700 0,00% 0,00% -5,88% 6,25% 1,18% -1,16% 0,00% -5,88% 6,25% 5,88% 0,00% -3,33% 3,45% -2,78% -2,86% 8,82% 0,00% -10,81% 12,12% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 4,03% -3,87% 0,00% 0 115 1000 700 0 200 0 6600 1700 200 0 0 0 0 0 0,60% 1,06% -0,42% 0,44% -0,08% 1,24% 0,31% -0,23% 0,70% 0,78% 0,40% 0,23% 0,39% -0,73% 0,45% -0,18% 0,17% -0,17% 0,39% 0,93% -2,06% 0,52% 1,30% -0,15% -0,11% 0,58% 1,04% -0,44% 0,42% -0,10% 1,22% 0,29% -0,25% 0,68% 0,76% 0,38% 0,21% 0,37% -0,75% 0,43% -0,20% 0,15% -0,19% 0,37% 0,91% -2,08% 0,50% 1,28% -0,17% -0,13% 502,16 497,73 495 496,86 496,59 492,65 487,82 487,88 488,98 483,78 479,09 477,19 478,99 479,43 480,16 478,7 478 477,25 478,95 475,62 478,98 480,55 477,77 476,42 477,08 496,92 490,43 491,59 492,58 491,34 486,7 483,85 482,61 482,41 478,85 475,06 474,7 475,69 473,69 475,82 473,97 474,54 474,91 473,68 470,16 469,39 475,16 470,72 469,3 470,26 64.102.510 57.891.700 61.651.890 75.217.440 98.030.960 65.644.630 43.514.290 49.626.340 80.657.028 313.390 46.167.730 84.263.650 35.571.556 39.014.181 39.152.080 38.474.360 29.065.440 32.565.556 30.633.750 27.533.440 39.165.760 33.461.070 47.409.590 69.278.295 24.844.320 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -13,51% 15,63% -2,70% -5,56% 9,85% -0,67% -0,27% -4,32% 0 400 0 3200 300 100 1600 200 1100 0,89% -1,00% -2,53% -1,01% 0,76% -1,87% -1,31% -0,42% -1,22% 0,64% -0,08% 0,92% 1,17% -0,35% 0,87% -1,02% -2,55% -1,03% 0,74% -1,89% -1,33% -0,44% -1,24% 0,62% -0,10% 0,90% 1,15% -0,37% 472,7 477,09 477,92 489,89 490,54 497,89 503,92 504,78 510,59 513,34 510,22 509,6 503,89 502,63 462,13 468,55 470,29 485,57 478,59 482,78 494,4 497,01 504,11 507,16 505,48 505,03 496,35 497,4 33.729.090 35.965.310 65.368.120 24.680.370 38.985.570 52.560.820 50.905.010 50.876.640 59.507.840 60.613.020 59.756.870 61.233.560 34.135.960 35.557.220 12/08/2013 09/08/2013 08/08/2013 07/08/2013 06/08/2013 05/08/2013 02/08/2013 01/08/2013 31/07/2013 30/07/2013 29/07/2013 26/07/2013 25/07/2013 24/07/2013 23/07/2013 22/07/2013 19/07/2013 18/07/2013 17/07/2013 16/07/2013 15/07/2013 12/07/2013 11/07/2013 10/07/2013 09/07/2013 08/07/2013 05/07/2013 04/07/2013 03/07/2013 02/07/2013 01/07/2013 28/06/2013 27/06/2013 26/06/2013 25/06/2013 24/06/2013 21/06/2013 20/06/2013 50 | P19/06/2013 age 18/06/2013 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 17.700 17.200 17.100 17.000 17.000 16.500 17.000 17.000 17.000 18.500 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 16.700 16.700 18.500 18.500 18.400 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 17.100 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 0,00% -2,82% -0,58% -0,58% 0,00% -2,94% 3,03% 0,00% 0,00% 8,82% -8,11% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -1,76% 0,00% 10,78% 0,00% -0,54% -2,17% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -5,00% -0,58% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 100 500 0 1100 0 0 200 100 2400 800 4000 1000 200 500 2600 500 0 1700 3300 1900 1300 400 0 100 100 500 -0,23% 0,48% -0,38% 0,71% 0,59% -0,20% 0,45% 0,12% 0,68% 0,59% -1,67% 0,44% -0,49% -2,00% -0,37% 0,48% 1,39% -0,13% 0,26% 0,43% 0,02% 1,97% 0,01% -0,22% 0,57% -0,60% -0,32% -0,03% -0,51% 2,04% -0,23% -0,38% 1,99% 0,11% -3,41% -1,82% -0,13% -0,77% 0,90% 0,07% -0,25% 0,46% -0,40% 0,69% 0,57% -0,22% 0,43% 0,10% 0,66% 0,57% -1,69% 0,42% -0,51% -2,02% -0,39% 0,46% 1,37% -0,15% 0,24% 0,41% 0,00% 1,95% -0,01% -0,24% 0,55% -0,62% -0,34% -0,05% -0,53% 2,02% -0,25% -0,40% 1,97% 0,09% -3,43% -1,84% -0,15% -0,79% 0,88% 0,05% 501,39 502,04 503,51 502,26 496,56 496,74 495,71 494,31 493,1 490,36 494,36 495,16 495,85 504,27 508,64 506,16 505,38 500,51 498,42 497,83 498,32 493,99 485,44 489,83 485,5 485,95 489,99 490,65 492,93 490,14 478,98 485,94 482,95 476,47 488,55 501,14 501,25 503,75 504,11 500,54 497,53 498,88 497,05 495,02 491,91 492,75 493,02 489,57 487,1 485,74 485,56 487,92 491,71 493,36 504,22 504,61 499,28 494,23 493,37 493,74 492,95 485,13 482,11 484,43 481,14 480,58 485,22 486,49 487,11 489,59 475,26 479,94 475 466,41 466,78 487,41 495,23 498,55 500,61 495,50 25.395.260 25.936.720 28.051.650 35.379.890 29.499.900 24.131.750 24.490.540 27.992.370 24.088.410 26.663.830 29.602.500 40.361.070 41.317.890 55.245.500 47.077.480 48.725.640 42.574.930 49.439.580 41.625.080 40.224.850 41.664.550 47.906.230 28.820.560 28.250.930 26.299.100 32.633.300 37.205.860 36.277.730 36.474.440 32.480.660 30.796.540 42.072.790 42.119.150 51.883.710 82.915.860 54.963.830 92.632.850 48.665.180 42.149.080 51.411.630 17/06/2013 14/06/2013 13/06/2013 12/06/2013 11/06/2013 10/06/2013 07/06/2013 06/06/2013 05/06/2013 04/06/2013 03/06/2013 31/05/2013 30/05/2013 29/05/2013 28/05/2013 27/05/2013 24/05/2013 23/05/2013 22/05/2013 21/05/2013 20/05/2013 17/05/2013 16/05/2013 15/05/2013 14/05/2013 13/05/2013 10/05/2013 09/05/2013 08/05/2013 07/05/2013 06/05/2013 03/05/2013 02/05/2013 26/04/2013 25/04/2013 24/04/2013 23/04/2013 51 | P a g e 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 17.000 17.100 18.300 17.500 17.500 17.100 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.000 17.100 17.100 16.800 16.800 16.800 16.800 15.600 15.600 17.200 17.200 17.200 16.200 16.800 16.500 16.000 16.100 16.000 17.500 17.500 16.100 16.100 16.500 17.300 19.100 17.800 17.800 17.800 0,00% 0,59% 7,02% -4,37% 0,00% -2,29% -0,58% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,59% 0,00% -1,75% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -7,14% 0,00% 10,26% 0,00% 0,00% -5,81% 3,70% -1,79% -3,03% 0,63% -0,62% 9,38% 0,00% -8,00% 0,00% 2,48% 4,85% -6,81% 0,00% 0,00% 100 200 100 200 800 300 0 100 800 2500 200 5100 4000 200 1000 0 400 600 100 100 6500 100 200 100 1100 300 200 3200 0 1200 -2,06% -1,18% -0,61% -0,71% -0,50% -0,65% 1,36% 1,22% 0,77% -1,23% -0,26% -0,59% 1,23% -0,24% 0,77% 2,43% 0,41% -0,80% 0,41% 1,61% 0,96% -0,56% 0,90% 0,44% -1,04% 0,58% -0,02% 0,24% -0,11% -0,56% 2,75% 0,47% -0,31% -0,44% 0,78% -0,17% 1,12% -2,08% -1,20% -0,63% -0,73% -0,52% -0,67% 1,34% 1,20% 0,75% -1,25% -0,28% -0,61% 1,21% -0,26% 0,75% 2,41% 0,39% -0,82% 0,39% 1,59% 0,94% -0,58% 0,88% 0,42% -1,06% 0,56% -0,04% 0,22% -0,13% -0,58% 2,73% 0,45% -0,33% -0,46% 0,76% -0,19% 1,10% 511,23 518 519,54 524,91 525,68 533,15 527,97 521,28 513,95 521,96 521,35 526,58 521,45 520,36 517,97 516,08 503,6 506,58 504,68 502,6 492,96 491,13 490,58 487,52 487,45 490,38 490,76 488,57 488,04 491,56 488,32 475,24 476,42 479,12 477,8 475,75 475,48 498,31 509,03 510,07 518,24 520,94 524,56 523,19 513,16 508,86 510,69 516,75 518,39 513,68 511,31 512,81 504,38 495,96 498,22 501,44 495,95 485,42 487,6 488,68 481,8 480,79 486,96 484,75 485,2 483,03 484,39 478,94 470,81 472,16 474,43 474,29 472,89 469,13 73.309.030 58.737.860 60.674.390 64.902.640 59.009.640 75.001.890 73.350.530 69.643.400 54.216.330 75.405.700 72.365.040 97.869.300 73.554.110 93.465.370 83.366.050 91.278.240 58.885.910 76.788.480 60.738.030 78.862.860 46.416.100 43.122.850 43.122.850 43.474.450 35.884.870 43.748.020 39.892.770 45.880.290 37.540.320 54.751.810 46.485.330 24.532.200 20.465.090 30.585.010 35.474.860 30.220.170 30.789.420 22/04/2013 18/04/2013 17/04/2013 16/04/2013 15/04/2013 12/04/2013 11/04/2013 10/04/2013 09/04/2013 08/04/2013 05/04/2013 04/04/2013 03/04/2013 02/04/2013 01/04/2013 29/03/2013 28/03/2013 27/03/2013 26/03/2013 25/03/2013 22/03/2013 21/03/2013 20/03/2013 19/03/2013 18/03/2013 15/03/2013 14/03/2013 13/03/2013 12/03/2013 11/03/2013 08/03/2013 07/03/2013 06/03/2013 05/03/2013 04/03/2013 01/03/2013 28/02/2013 27/02/2013 52 | P26/02/2013 age 1,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 16.200 16.500 16.500 16.000 16.900 16.100 14.700 16.300 16.400 16.200 15.900 15.900 16.200 15.800 15.500 15.600 15.700 15.700 15.400 15.400 15.200 15.200 15.500 15.700 15.700 15.700 15.000 15.000 15.000 15.000 15.000 15.100 15.300 14.000 14.300 14.800 14.800 14.800 15.000 -8,99% 0,00% -3,03% 5,63% -4,73% -8,70% 10,88% 0,61% -1,22% -1,85% 0,00% 1,89% -2,47% -1,90% 0,65% 0,64% 0,00% -1,91% 0,00% -1,30% 0,00% 1,97% 1,29% 0,00% 0,00% -4,46% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,67% 1,32% -8,50% 2,14% 3,50% 0,00% 0,00% 1,35% 1400 300 100 2000 500 400 500 3100 100 5400 300 500 6400 400 300 400 2000 4200 300 100 3200 11900 100 0 1000 2000 500 1000 200 1000 100 33100 42700 3300 -1,01% -2,23% 1,24% -0,41% -2,88% -1,94% 1,52% -2,74% 0,76% 0,81% 1,05% -1,70% -0,69% 0,72% 3,01% 0,08% -0,12% 0,37% -0,83% 0,73% -0,37% 0,98% 1,37% 0,28% -0,46% 1,42% 0,30% -0,45% -0,24% 1,24% 0,87% -0,95% 1,94% -1,41% -1,76% 0,55% 1,90% 0,14% -3,85% -1,03% -2,25% 1,22% -0,43% -2,90% -1,96% 1,50% -2,76% 0,74% 0,79% 1,03% -1,72% -0,71% 0,70% 2,99% 0,06% -0,14% 0,35% -0,85% 0,71% -0,39% 0,96% 1,35% 0,26% -0,48% 1,40% 0,28% -0,47% -0,26% 1,22% 0,85% -0,97% 1,92% -1,43% -1,78% 0,53% 1,88% 0,12% -3,87% 472,95 483,99 483,99 479,97 491,77 505,9 504,51 518,46 512,85 507,75 503,36 506,63 511,59 514,1 505,81 492,96 495,12 492,46 496,32 495,64 500,59 494,57 488,94 482,21 482,59 481,35 474,6 478,05 478,67 476,79 471,75 472,54 471,09 467,84 479,06 480,39 476,41 467,5 482,5 466,78 471,1 476,53 466,56 478,8 490,82 497,08 496,5 504,16 501,91 497,83 497,35 502,38 507,22 489,9 483,5 487,67 485,34 489,14 488,55 486,15 488,43 480,53 477,55 478,54 474,45 470,81 471,85 470,51 469,78 468,1 466,63 464,19 461,61 468,74 475,46 465,72 459,64 463,64 37.044.620 35.218.830 28.380.260 46.214.530 51.237.740 50.661.340 46.971.210 64.402.460 58.149.210 49.051.910 44.598.800 48.524.380 54.225.370 66.367.870 47.153.090 34.734.860 39.513.170 34.896.540 36.516.000 33.144.960 49.788.230 46.870.700 43.035.240 33.082.800 46.990.510 72.403.940 44.795.250 48.212.190 57.757.820 53.686.210 30.142.850 41.308.530 32.511.220 57.356.100 64.774.600 48.407.200 50.678.370 68.059.040 90.251.400 25/02/2013 22/02/2013 21/02/2013 20/02/2013 19/02/2013 18/02/2013 08/02/2013 07/02/2013 06/02/2013 05/02/2013 04/02/2013 01/02/2013 31/01/2013 30/01/2013 29/01/2013 28/01/2013 25/01/2013 24/01/2013 23/01/2013 22/01/2013 21/01/2013 18/01/2013 17/01/2013 16/01/2013 15/01/2013 14/01/2013 11/01/2013 10/01/2013 09/01/2013 08/01/2013 07/01/2013 04/01/2013 03/01/2013 02/01/2013 53 | P a g e 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 15.000 14.700 14.700 14.700 14.600 14.600 14.100 14.100 14.100 14.100 14.100 14.000 14.000 14.000 14.000 14.500 14.500 14.900 14.900 14.900 14.900 14.900 14.900 14.900 14.800 14.800 14.800 14.800 14.800 14.900 14.500 14.500 14.500 15.300 0,00% -2,00% 0,00% 0,00% -0,68% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -0,71% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 3,57% 0,00% 2,76% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% -0,67% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,68% -2,68% 0,00% 0,00% 5,52% 3400 2000 300 100 1300 0 0 2000 0 700 900 1000 0 0 1700 4800 1200 0 1200 400 1900 400 200 100 1,26% 0,20% -3,66% 0,83% -0,64% -0,02% 0,70% 0,46% 2,30% -1,04% -0,22% 0,76% -1,60% 0,74% 0,92% 2,46% 3,47% 2,04% 0,12% -1,10% -1,40% -0,57% -1,82% 0,83% 0,53% -0,80% 0,56% 2,53% 0,36% 2,99% 1,91% 1,62% 0,22% 1,12% 1,24% 0,18% -3,68% 0,81% -0,66% -0,04% 0,68% 0,44% 2,28% -1,06% -0,24% 0,74% -1,62% 0,72% 0,90% 2,44% 3,45% 2,02% 0,10% -1,12% -1,42% -0,59% -1,84% 0,81% 0,51% -0,82% 0,54% 2,51% 0,34% 2,97% 1,89% 1,60% 0,20% 1,10% 483,97 487,11 497,7 495,82 495,39 497,87 495,72 493,72 488,62 482,56 488,96 483,42 485,19 490,89 484,34 485,67 468,09 452,4 447,79 450,8 456,34 459,82 466,55 470,34 461,42 462,08 469,16 460,12 457,75 447,16 434,64 426,48 420,68 419,05 478,97 470,23 476,73 487,68 490,33 493,95 489,64 488,03 479,62 477,36 482,38 473,23 479,79 482,76 476,33 474,27 455,25 444,19 440,48 441,24 447,79 450,28 456,76 462,17 455,93 455,51 461,74 444,08 442,26 437,15 426,86 417,5 413,68 414,41 46.608.020 105.270.730 121.293.570 75.889.430 101.269.460 67.678.930 58.838.750 66.319.750 61.098.630 53.187.860 50.205.730 57.696.770 77.448.750 81.816.460 83.689.610 103.940.640 80.711.500 46.685.140 47.105.470 65.159.100 52.791.190 80.290.320 93.851.780 93.433.920 85.189.720 66.848.260 71.736.170 69.049.730 131.421.730 81.496.290 75.004.280 63.364.690 96.108.870 60.311.180 Appendix E: Evaluation model Dividend Valuation Approach Dividends Re PV factor PV of dividends Sum PV Growth rate PV of Continuing value Value of common equity Number of shares outstanding Value per share Mid year adjustment Year 2014 16.376.945.287 16,951% 40.953.495.448 5,0% 59.932.685.340 Year +1 11.076.529.006 Year +2 12.184.181.907 Year +3 13.158.916.460 Year +4 14.080.040.612 Year +5 14.924.843.048 0,855057 9.471.068.532 0,731123 8.908.138.371 0,625152 8.226.327.586 0,534541 7.526.361.386 0,457063 6.821.599.574 100.886.180.788 8.212.500 12.284 13.285 Sensitivity analysis Interpretation: Change in share price in response to change in long-term growth rate Long-term growth rate Share price (VND) % change in price Base on Dividend Discount Model, it is suggested that HHC share price is currently overvalued, compared to current price of 34,900 VND Therefore, HHC should be sold 13.284,91 2% 11.521,10 under this model 3% 12.024,76 4,37% 4% 12.606,18 4,84% The share price changes from 4% to 9% in response to 1% change in the long-run 5% 13.284,91 5,38% growth rate 6% 14.087,59 6,04% 7% 15.051,60 6,84% 8% 16.231,00 7,84% 9% 17.707,06 9,09% 54 | P a g e Cash-Flow-Based Valuation Projected FCF to all debt and equity capital stakeholders FCF to all debt and equity Net CF from operations Add back interest expense net tax Net CF from investing Free CF for all debt and equity WACC Present value factor (WACC=13.32%) Present value FCF Long-term growth rate PV of continuing value Value of Net operating assets Year 2014 34.107.832.897 104.957.238 -23.065.358.549 11.147.431.586 13,32% Year +1 40.161.914.530 114.403.389 -22.159.154.102 18.117.163.818 13,32% 0,882451118 15.987.511.466 Year +2 48.872.553.243 125.843.728 -26.837.197.745 22.161.199.226 13,32% 0,778719976 17.257.368.522 Year +3 52.117.628.991 135.911.226 -23.616.734.016 28.636.806.202 13,32% 0,687182313 19.678.706.727 Year +4 55.400.262.340 145.425.012 -22.317.813.645 33.227.873.707 13,32% 0,606404801 20.149.542.127 Year +5 58.329.429.345 154.150.513 -20.468.623.372 38.014.956.486 13,32% 0,535122594 20.342.662.133 5,0% 256.705.955.398 350.121.746.374 Projected FCF to Equity NCF from Operations Net CF from Investing NCF from debt financing Dividend payments Other equity FCF for common equity shareholders Re Present value factor Present value FCF for equity Long-term growth rate PV continuing value Value of common equity Number of shares outstanding Price Mid-year adjustment 55 | P a g e Year 2014 34.107.832.897 -23.065.358.549 22.989.047 -16.376.945.287 -542.448.096 (5.853.929.987,39) 16,951% 5,0% 120.255.658.708,70 189.170.389.478,50 8.212.500 23.034,45 24.910,37 Year +1 40.161.914.530 -22.159.154.102 24.794.014 -11.076.529.006 7.565.162.114 14.516.187.550,73 Year +2 48.872.553.243 -26.837.197.745 30.028.306 -12.184.181.907 9.162.251.894 19.043.453.790,36 Year +3 52.117.628.991 -23.616.734.016 26.424.909 -13.158.916.460 8.062.781.667 23.431.185.091,95 Year +4 55.400.262.340 -22.317.813.645 24.971.539 -14.080.040.612 7.619.328.675 26.646.708.297,48 Year +5 58.329.429.345 -20.468.623.372 22.902.469 -14.924.843.048 6.988.012.870 29.946.878.264,36 0,85505744 12.412.174.160,33 0,731123225 13.923.111.351,64 0,625152353 14.648.060.491,03 0,53454117 0,457063404 14.243.762.636,22 13.687.622.130,58 Interpretation: Sensitivity analysis Change in share price in response to change in long-term growth rate Long-term growth rate Share price (VND) % change in price For 1% change in the long-run growth rate, ranging from 2% to 9%, share price change in the range between 4.7% and 9.7% Therefore, the share price is supposed to fall within 24.910,37 21,000 VND to 33,500 VND 2% 21.371,27 3% 22.381,85 4,73% 4% 23.548,49 5,21% Current share price of HHC is 34,900 VND It is suggested that HHC share would be 5% 24.910,37 5,78% presently overvalued (if long-term growth rate is 5%) Hence, it should not be sold 6% 26.520,96 6,47% 7% 28.455,25 7,29% 8% 30.821,73 8,32% 9% 33.783,46 9,61% 56 | P a g e 57 | P a g e Appendix F: Forecasting items TANGIBLE ASSETS Forecast useful life Fixed assets-tangible Tangible fixed assets at cost Accumulated depreciation Depreciation in year Average useful life 2009 2010 188.879.251.023 193.377.153.268 -126.647.795.782 -140.472.207.548 13.824.411.766 13,825413 2011 206.397.488.218 -153.284.435.704 12.812.228.156 15,60129263 2012 209.577.137.256 -168.633.267.178 15.348.831.474 13,55069362 2013 222.951.264.803 -177.722.216.446 9.088.949.268 23,79419168 Average 2014 245.987.905.017 23.036.640.214 year + 268.126.816.468 22.138.911.452 year + 294.939.498.115 26.812.681.647 year + 318.534.657.964 23.595.159.849 year + 340.832.084.022 22.297.426.058 2014 13.356.055.274 1.380.026.439 year + 13.356.055.274 1.380.026.439 1.326.247.354 year + 13.356.055.274 1.380.026.439 1.326.247.354 1.606.232.907 year + 13.356.055.274 1.380.026.439 1.326.247.354 1.606.232.907 1.413.484.958 year + 13.356.055.274 1.380.026.439 1.326.247.354 1.606.232.907 1.413.484.958 1.335.743.285 14.736.081.713 177.722.216.446 192.458.298.159 16.062.329.067 208.520.627.226 17.668.561.974 226.189.189.200 19.082.046.932 245.271.236.132 20.417.790.217 265.689.026.349 17 Forecast capital expenditure Tangible fixed assets at cost Capital expenditure 2013 222.951.264.803 year + 361.282.009.063 20.449.925.041 Forecast accumulated depreciation Existing PPE Capital spending 2014 Capital spending + Capital spending + Capital spending + Capital spending + Capital spending + Total Depreciation Expenses Accumulated Depreciation Expenses Depreciable bases 222.951.264.803 23.036.640.214 22.138.911.452 26.812.681.647 23.595.159.849 22.297.426.058 20.449.925.041 year + 13.356.055.274 1.380.026.439 1.326.247.354 1.606.232.907 1.413.484.958 1.335.743.285 1.225.067.413 21.642.857.630 287.331.883.979 INTANGIBLE ASSETS Forecast capital expenditure Intangible assets Capital expenditure 2013 196.200.000 2014 224.918.335 28.718.335 year + 245.160.985 20.242.650 year + 269.677.083 24.516.098 year + 291.251.250 21.574.167 2009 191200000 -118.497.216 2010 191200000 -150.563.880 32.066.664 5,962578458 2011 191200000 -180.200.006 29.636.126 6,451585474 2012 231200000 -196.755.555 16.555.549 12,75705203 2013 196200000 -175.088.887 -21.666.668 9,863076316 year + 311.638.837 20.387.587 Forecast useful life Tangible fixed assets at cost Accumulated depreciation Depreciation in year Average useful life 58 | P a g e Average year + 330.337.168 18.698.330 Forecast accumulated depreciation Existing PPE Capital spending 2014 Capital spending + Capital spending + Capital spending + Capital spending + Capital spending + Total Depreciation Expenses Accumulated Depreciation Expenses 59 | P a g e Depreciable bases 196.200.000 28.718.335 20.242.650 24.516.098 21.574.167 20.387.587 18.698.330 118.497.216 2014 22.400.909 3.278.883 year + 22.400.909 3.278.883 2.311.181 year + 22.400.909 3.278.883 2.311.181 2.799.097 year + 22.400.909 3.278.883 2.311.181 2.799.097 2.463.206 year + 22.400.909 3.278.883 2.311.181 2.799.097 2.463.206 2.327.729 25.679.792 144.177.008 27.990.973 172.167.981 30.790.071 202.958.052 33.253.276 236.211.328 35.581.006 271.792.334 year + 22.400.909 3.278.883 2.311.181 2.799.097 2.463.206 2.327.729 2.134.860 37.715.866 309.508.200