Analysis of Differences between Consumer- and Creditor-Purchased Credit Scores pdf

Analysis of Differences between Consumer- and Creditor-Purchased Credit Scores SEPTEMBER 2012 CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU, SEPTEMBER 2012 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 1. Introduction 3 1.1 Overview of score variations and why they matter 3 2. Analysis and Results 7 2.1 Data 7 2.2 Analysis and Results 8 3. Impact and Policy Implications 20 Appendix 22 2 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES Executive Summary When consumers purchase their credit scores from one of the major nationwide consumer reporting agencies (CRAs), they often receive scores that are not generated by the scoring models use to generate scores sold to lenders. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act directed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to compare credit scores sold to creditors and those sold to consumers by nationwide CRAs and determine whether differences between those scores disadvantage consumers. CFPB analyzed credit scores from 200,000 credit files from each of the three major nationwide CRAs: TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian. The study yielded the following results:  The CFPB found that for a majority of consumers the scores produced by different scoring models provided similar information about the relative creditworthiness of the consumers. That is, if a consumer had a good score from one scoring model the consumer likely had a good score on another model. For a substantial minority, however, different scoring models gave meaningfully different results.  Correlations across the results of scoring models were high, generally over .90 (out of a possible one). Correlations were stronger among the models for consumers with scores below the median than for consumers with scores above the median.  To determine if score variations would lead to meaningful differences between the consumers’ and lenders’ assessment of credit quality, the study divided scores into four credit-quality categories. The study found that different scoring models would place consumers in the same credit-quality category 73-80% of the time. Different scoring models would place consumers in credit-quality categories that are off by one category 19-24% of the time. And from 1% to 3% of consumers would be placed in categories that were two or more categories apart.  The study looked at results within several demographic subgroups. Different scores did not appear to treat different groups of consumers systematically differently than other scoring models. The study found less variation among scores for younger consumers and consumers who live in lower- income or high-minority population ZIP codes than for older consumers or consumers in higher- income or lower-minority population ZIP codes. This is likely driven by differences in the median scores of these different categories of consumers.  Consumers cannot know ahead of time whether the scores they purchase will closely track or vary moderately or significantly from a score sold to creditors. Thus, consumers should not rely on credit scores they purchase exclusively as a guide to how creditors will view their credit quality.  Firms that sell scores to consumers should make consumers aware that the scores consumers purchase could vary, sometimes substantially, from the scores used by creditors. CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU, SEPTEMBER 2012 3 1. Introduction Section 1078 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act directs the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to conduct a study on the “nature, range, and size of variations between the credit scores sold to creditors and those sold to consumers by consumer reporting agencies that compile and maintain files on consumers on a nationwide basis … and whether such variations disadvantage consumers.” 1 On July 19, 2011, the CFPB published a report on “The impact of differences between consumer- and creditor- purchased credit scores.” That report provided a description of the credit scoring industry; of the types of credit scores that are sold to consumers and businesses; and of the potential problems for consumers of having discrepancies between the scores they purchase and the scores used for decision-making by lenders in the marketplace. That report also outlined a data analysis to be undertaken by the CFPB to describe credit score variations on approximately 200,000 credit files from three nationwide consumer reporting agencies (CRAs) – TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian – using credit scores typically sold to consumers and to creditors. This second report presents the findings of this analysis. 1.1 Overview of score variations and why they might matter As described in the July 2011 CFPB study, when a consumer purchases a score from a nationwide CRA, it is likely that the credit score will not be the same as the score used by a particular lender or other commercial credit report user in making a lending or other score-based decision with respect to that consumer. The variation in scores reflects not only differences between scores sold to consumer and scores sold to creditors, but also differences among scores sold to creditors. 1.1.1 Types of Scores Lenders use a wide variety of credit scores which vary by score provider, by model, and by target industry. 1.1.1.a FICO Scores One consulting firm estimates that scores developed by Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) accounted for over 90% of the market of scores sold to firms in 2010 for use in credit-related decisions. 2 There are numerous FICO scoring models that vary by version (e.g., newer and older models), by the nationwide CRA that sells the score to lenders, and by industry. 4 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES FICO’s most current model is FICO 08, but commercial users still use earlier versions of FICO products. Additionally, FICO’s generic scoring models – the most common FICO scores that are developed to predict performance on all types of credit - vary across the nationwide CRAs because the FICO scoring models are designed specifically for each CRA and reflect differences in how they organize and present credit report data. FICO offers industry-specific models for credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and telecommunication services. FICO models typically generate credit scores in the range between 300 and 850. FICO also builds custom models that are designed for specific companies’ credit underwriting needs. 1.1.1.b Vantage Scores VantageScore LLC, a score development company established as a joint venture of Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian, licenses its scoring models for sale by the three nationwide CRAs to both creditors and consumers. There are currently two Vantage scoring models in use: VantageScore and VantageScore 2.0. The original VantageScore® launched in 2006. VantageScore 2.0, developed using data from 2006 to 2009, launched in October 2010. The VantageScore models produce scores in the range of 501-990. 1.1.1.c Consumer Reporting Agency Scores CRAs are companies that gather, organize, standardize, and disseminate consumer information, especially credit information. Each of the nationwide CRAs – Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian - have their own proprietary generic scoring models to predict credit performance. These models were originally developed for use by lenders to predict performance on credit obligations, but are now primarily sold as educational scores to consumers. 3 These scores typically resemble FICO scores in range. Some of the proprietary generic scores sold by the CRAs are:  Equifax: “Equifax Credit Score.” Produces scores in the range 280-850. 4  Experian: “Experian Plus Score.” Produces scores in the range 330-830. 5  TransUnion: “TransRisk New Account Score.” Produces scores in the range 300-850. 6 In addition to being sold to consumers on a stand-alone basis, educational scores are often the scores provided by the CRAs to consumers who have purchased or otherwise subscribed to credit monitoring services, which typically provide reports and scores on a regular basis. CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU, SEPTEMBER 2012 5 1.1.2 Consumer Purchases of Credit Scores While consumers can obtain free annual credit reports from the nationwide CRAs, they typically have to pay for credit scores. 7 Consumers purchase scores through several channels. In most cases, the scores consumers purchase are educational credit scores made available to them by the nationwide CRAs and through other channels. Consumers may purchase scores by contacting a nationwide CRA directly or by purchasing a score to accompany the free credit reports consumers are able to obtain annually at annualcreditreport.com. The nationwide CRAs generally sell consumers educational scores or VantageScore scores. Consumers can also obtain credit scores by subscribing to credit monitoring services. Again, these scores are typically educational. Some educational credit scoring providers make scores available to consumers for free. In some circumstances consumers can purchase FICO scores. For example, Equifax offers a FICO score for sale with an Equifax credit report, and consumers’ FICO scores derived from credit reports from both Equifax and TransUnion can be purchased from FICO’s consumer website, myfico.com. Consumers cannot purchase a FICO score generated from an Experian credit report. Even where a consumer purchases a FICO score and goes to a creditor that uses FICO scores, the score may not be the one any particular creditor uses, given the diversity of scores in the marketplace and the possibility that the creditor may obtain scores from a different CRA. 1.1.3 Potential Harms for Consumers Variations between the credit scores sold to consumers and to lenders carry significance only if such variations lead to consumer harms. The July 19, 2011 CFPB Report highlighted potential harms for consumers. These harms include those resulting from consumers’ inaccurate perceptions of their own credit worthiness. 1.1.3.a Harms from Inaccurate Perception of Creditworthiness A consumer can face harms if, after purchasing a credit score, the consumer has a different impression of his or her creditworthiness than a lender would. If the score leads the consumer to overestimate lenders’ likely assessment of his or her creditworthiness, the consumer might be likely to apply for credit lines that would not be approved, with a cost of wasted time and effort on both the consumer’s and lender’s part. Alternatively, the consumer may reject offers of credit that would be beneficial because the consumer’s misperception of his or her creditworthiness leads the consumer to believe that the offers are over-priced. If a consumer underestimates lenders’ likely assessment of his or her creditworthiness, the consumer might fail to apply for credit at all or delay applying for credit, forgoing the opportunity to buy a house or car, for example, or delaying a valuable mortgage refinancing. A consumer might also apply to lenders who offer less favorable terms than he or she might qualify for, or accept less favorable offers received through the mail or online direct marketing. In this case, the cost to the affected consumer would be higher interest costs and possibly higher likelihoods of default due to the greater costs and difficulty of making monthly payments. Lenders might benefit by being able to charge higher interest to consumers who “incorrectly” understand their options when applying; at the same time lenders would lose out on business from consumers who decide not to apply for credit due to a misperception of its likely cost. Finally, consumers who believe their credit score to be low may take costly steps that they believe may improve their credit score. 6 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES 1.1.3.b Small differences, Big impacts Notably, the potential for a consumer to be confused may be greater where the consumer is sophisticated about the use of credit scores by creditors. Many lenders use specific score levels as thresholds to determine whether consumers will qualify for a particular loan or interest rate. For example, FICO score levels 620, 680, and 740 might be used by a lender as the boundary lines between consumers considered to be “sub- prime, “near-prime,” or “prime” credit risks, respectively. A striking example of this is the fact that Fannie Mae generally won’t buy mortgages with FICO scores under 620. 8 So, for consumers whose scores are in the relevant range, a small variation in a consumer’s score might result in his or her score falling above or below such a cut-off, with dramatic implications for his or her access to home loans. Given the use of score thresholds to determine eligibility for certain products or pricing tiers, even small variations can have large impacts for certain consumers. If a consumer believes incorrectly that he falls above or below a crucial threshold then the impact of a given difference between scores may be magnified, since it may be more likely to have an impact on the consumer’s perceptions and consequent credit-seeking behavior. 1.1.4 Study Objectives To explore these issues, the CFPB undertook this follow-up study to the July 19, 2011 CFPB Report on credit scores to examine scores sold to consumers and see how well they correlate with the scores used by lenders. CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU, SEPTEMBER 2012 7 2. Analysis and Results This chapter of the report describes the data analyzed and presents results of several approaches to analyzing differences and similarities across scoring models. The CFPB found that for a majority of consumers the scores produced by different scoring models provide similar information about the relative creditworthiness of the consumers. That is, if a consumer had a good score from one scoring model the consumer likely had a good score on another model. For a substantial minority, however, different scoring models gave meaningfully different results. 2.1 Data Each of the three larger nationwide CRAs, Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion, provided the CFPB with a random sample of 200,000 consumer reports and credit scores calculated on such reports. The samples were chosen independently at the three CRAs; the samples were not designed to contain the same individuals. The samples selected included only reports with at least one trade line – and not, for example, simply an inquiry – that therefore would be potentially “scoreable” by at least one scoring model. For each consumer report in the sample, the CRAs provided five credit scores; the file’s trade line history, scrubbed of any potentially personally identifiable information; and ZIP code and age information to allow the CFPB to compare scores by consumer demographics. 9 The five credit scores provided by each nationwide CRA for the study were: 1. The generic FICO 10 score sold by the CRA. Equifax provided BEACON 5, a FICO score; Experian provided FICO V2 (Quest); and TransUnion provided FICO Classic 2004. 2. The CRA’s educational score sold to consumers. Equifax provided EquifaxRisk 3.0 scores, Experian provided Experian PLUS scores, and TransUnion provided TransRisk New Account Scores. 3. VantageScore 1.0. 4. FICO Auto Loan industry-specific score. 5. FICO BankCard industry-specific score. 8 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES The FICO scores and VantageScore are all sold to creditors. The generic FICO score (in some circumstances), the VantageScore, and the educational scores are sold to consumers. There are therefore a number of potential situations where the consumer could purchase a score and a creditor could purchase a different score to evaluate the creditworthiness of that consumer. The situations that can be evaluated with the data are: the consumer buys an educational score and the creditor uses a FICO score; the consumer buys an educational score and the creditor uses a VantageScore; the consumer buys a VantageScore and the creditor uses a FICO score; and, the consumer buys a FICO score and the creditor uses a VantageScore. Note that the last two situations are symmetric, and therefore there are three relevant pair-wise comparisons for each of the analyses: educational versus FICO, educational versus VantageScore, and VantageScore versus FICO. Analysis showed that the industry-specific scores are very highly correlated to the generic FICO scores, and therefore comparisons with those models are not presented – results were very similar to analysis of the generic FICO score. 11 The results of the analysis were extremely similar qualitatively across the three CRAs. The study therefore presents results from a single CRA in the body of the report and provides results for the other two CRAs in the Appendix. There is one exception to this broader pattern. The sample provided by one of the CRAs contained very few young consumers because of the way the sample was drawn. Adjusting for this difference (e.g., focusing on older consumers) the results for this CRA are very similar to the other two CRAs. 12 2.2 Analysis and Results 2.2.1 Score Distributions In order to better understand differences in scores across models, and in anticipation of some of the results shown later in the report, it is useful to have some background on the distribution of scores across consumers. In addition to the score range that score developers select, developers determine the shape of the distribution of scores. This is because scores rank consumers according to their relative risk and therefore the relationship between score and absolute risk does not have to be constant across the score range. Figure 1 shows the score distributions for the three models for one of the CRAs. It shows that the FICO score and the educational score are scaled such that there is a large proportion of scores in the higher end and a long “tail” at the lower end of the score distribution, while the VantageScore is scaled such that the distribution of scores is relatively flat across the score distribution. This means that small changes in a FICO score or educational score at the high end of the score distribution translate into relatively large percentile changes, while changes in score at the low end of the FICO or educational score range translate into relatively small percentile changes. For VantageScore, on the other hand, a given score change leads to a similar percentage change across the score distribution. [...]... scores, consumers with scores between the 10th percentile of scores and the 20th percentile of scores, etc Figure 5 shows the results of comparing score deciles across scoring models Note that cells with entries of “0%” have some consumers in them but so few that they round to zero, while blank cells have no consumers 12 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES FIGURE 5: DECILE... identify differences between scores that would be meaningful in the marketplace Creditors often use scores by establishing score ranges and treating consumers within a range the same for purposes of underwriting or pricing The use of scores and score categories varies across product markets, and within product markets different creditors use scores differently In order to evaluate how often meaningful differences. .. 2: 90 DAY DELINQUENCY RATE BY VANTAGESCORE 50% 40% Median 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% VantageScore DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES APPENDIX FIGURE 3: SCATTERPLOTS CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU, SEPTEMBER 2012 23 24 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES APPENDIX FIGURE 4: SCORE CORRELATIONS Overall Customers Below Median FICO vs Educational... divided score distributions into a set of ranges These ranges reflect an approximation of how scores are used; this does not reflect the use of scores in any one market or by any one creditor Consumers were categorized into different score bins for FICO scores and educational scores:     Below 620; Between 620 and 680; Between 680 and 740; and Above 740 For VantageScores, consumers were categorized... correlation between the scores produced by two models is to 1, the tighter the relationship between those scoring models, and the more similar the two scores will be for a given consumer (on average) 10 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES Figure 3 provides visual representations of these relationships It shows “scatter-plot” graphs that show consumers’ relative scores from... 100% DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES Figure 8 summarizes the results from the above figures It shows that most consumers, 73 – 80%, were in the same score categories across the different scoring models This means that the scores consumers receive will usually give them an accurate understanding of how creditors, using another scoring model, would perceive them Most of. .. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES (3) Consumers should shop for credit: Regardless of variations in educational and commercial scores, or even among scoring models used by lenders (which was analyzed in this study in only a very limited and somewhat indirect manner) consumers benefit by shopping for credit Even if provided the same score, lenders may offer different loan... with each of the FICO score thresholds and applying that percentile cut-point to the distributions of VantageScores For example, a 620 FICO score is the 25th percentile of the FICO score distribution, so the lowest score category of VantageScores was made up of scores below the 25th percentile of the VantageScore distribution Similarly, a FICO score of 680 represents the 38th percentile of scores, so... 37 3 - 53 55 2 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES Turning to correlations, Figure 10 shows that scores were slightly more correlated for younger consumers and consumers who live in lower-income or high-minority population ZIP codes This result is consistent with the finding described above that scores were more highly correlated for consumers with lower scores than for... credit models are used by lenders FICO alone has over 49 credit scoring models.21 Consumers additionally can purchase a range of educational scores or VantageScores (2) Consumers should check their credit reports for accuracy and dispute any errors: Credit scores are calculated based on information in a consumer’s credit file Regardless of the credit scoring model used, inaccurate adverse information . 18 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES Figures 9 and 10 show comparisons of median score percentiles and correlations between. industry-specific score. 8 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSUMER- AND CREDITOR-PURCHASED CREDIT SCORES The FICO scores and VantageScore are all sold to creditors. The generic