Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 161 (2016) 1791 – 1795 :RUOG0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ$UFKLWHFWXUH8UEDQ3ODQQLQJ6\PSRVLXP :0&$86 5LVN,QGH[&DOFXODWLRQRI)ORRG3URWHFWLRQ2EMHFWLQ0DOFRY 9LOODJH 0DUWLQD=HOHĖiNRYiD /HQND=YLMiNRYiD3DYRO3XUF]D a Technical University of Košice, Vysokoškolská 4, 042 00 Košice, Slovakia $EVWUDFW )ORRGSURWHFWLRQLVDWSUHVHQWYHU\DFWXDOWRSLFDQGLWKDVFRPHWRWKHIRUHIURQWGXHWRWKHLQFUHDVHGLQFLGHQFHRIFOLPDWLFDQG K\GURORJLFDOH[WUHPHVDQGWKHUHODWHGLQFUHDVHGLQFLGHQFHRIIORRGHYHQWV)ORRGSURWHFWLRQREMHFWV±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ỵQờVWUHDPLQWKHYLOODJHRI0DOFRYSURYHGWKDW$OWHUQDWLYH$OWHUQDWLYHDQG$OWHUQDWLYHKDYHGLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI ULVN DFFHSWDELOLW\ DQG DFKLHYH GLIIHUHQW ULVN LQGH[ YDOXHV %DVHG RQ WKH ULVN LQGH[ WKH VXJJHVWHG DOWHUQDWLYHV FDQ EH FRPSDUHGZLWKHDFKRWKHUHYDOXDWHGE\PXOWLFULWHULDPHWKRGDQGWKXVZHUHFRPPHQGWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRI$OWHUQDWLYHZKLFK UHSUHVHQWVWKHORZHVWULVNWRWKHHQYLURQPHQW © 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license 7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKHRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRI:0&$86 Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of WMCAUS 2016 Keywords:(YLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQW IORRGSURWHFWLRQ ULVNDQDO\VLV PXOWLFULWHULDDQDO\VLV ,QWURGXFWLRQ )ORRGVDUHWKHPRVWIUHTXHQWQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUZRUOGZLGHDQGDPDMRUQDWXUDOKD]DUGLQ(XURSHLQWHUPVRIVRFLDO &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HO E-mail address:PDUWLQD]HOHQDNRYD#WXNHVN 1877-7058 © 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of WMCAUS 2016 doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.08.779 1792 Martina Zeleňáková et al / Procedia Engineering 161 (2016) 1791 –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valuation criteria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± ± ± t ± t d d t4 4 4 4 d4 d ± ! 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