Economics Letters 152 (2017) 46–49 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Economics Letters journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet Prisons, recidivism and the age–crime profile✩ Anna Bindler a , Randi Hjalmarsson a,b,∗ a University of Gothenburg, Sweden b CEPR, United Kingdom highlights • • • • • Historical data set of over 120,000 cases at the Old Bailey in 19th century London U-shape trend in convict age: steep decrease until 1820, then steady increase Use of prisons (instead of death or transportation) led to concept of recidivism Propose that the rise of prisons and recidivism mechanically led to older convicts First historical data on recidivism article info Article history: Received 13 October 2016 Accepted January 2017 Available online January 2017 JEL classification: J10 K14 K40 N33 N43 abstract This paper provides a descriptive analysis of the economic and non-economic channels that led to a U-shaped trend in the average age of male convicts in 19th century London using detailed data from the Old Bailey central criminal court In addition to discussing industrialization and changing attitudes towards juveniles as potential mechanisms underlying the initial decrease and subsequent increase in criminal age, we put forth a new explanation of the latter Did the abolition of capital punishment and penal transportation, which led to the rise of the modern day prison system and the emergence of recidivism, lead to a mechanical increase in the average age of criminals? © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) Keywords: Age–crime profile Industrial revolution Prison Punishment Recidivism Introduction One of the most commonly cited stylized facts about the demographics of criminals throughout the world and history is the age–crime profile, which typically increases in the teenage years, peaks around age 19 or 20, and then gradually decreases Fig shows the profile for both arrestees in the United States in 1980 ✩ This paper would not have been possible without the tremendous efforts of our Research Assistant Michael Bekele, the generous help with the data extraction by Florin Maican, and the financial support of Foundation for Economic Research in West Sweden (no 2250-242 334), and Vetenskapsrådet (no 446-2014-1735), The Swedish Research Council, Grants for Distinguished Young Researchers ∗ Correspondence to: Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Vasagatan 1, 41124 Göteborg, Sweden E-mail address: randi.hjalmarsson@economics.gu.se (R Hjalmarsson) and almost 120,000 convicts at the Old Bailey in London between 1800 and 1900: despite the different continents and more than 100 years in between, the age–crime profiles are remarkably similar Though criminologists have extensively studied the age–crime relationship, economists have only recently contributed to the debate Grogger (1998) asks whether market wages explain the age–crime profile, a natural question in the context of the Becker (1968) model of crime—the opportunity cost of crime increases with labor market experience as individuals age Lochner (2004) develops a human capital based model of crime, which predicts an age–crime profile that peaks at or before the age of labor market entry More recently, Landerso et al (forthcoming) study how school starting age affects the age–crime profile While the general shape of the age distribution is constant, its moments (mean and dispersion) can shift over time One such example is the rightward-shift in the age distribution of convicts http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.01.002 0165-1765/© 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) A Bindler, R Hjalmarsson / Economics Letters 152 (2017) 46–49 Fig Offender-age profiles Note: share of convicts at the Old Bailey (1800–1900) and share of arrests in the US (1980) by 5-year age intervals Source: Old Bailey Online Proceedings; BJS1 ; own calculations Fig Convict-age profiles Note: age distributions of male convicts at the Old Bailey Source: Old Bailey Online Proceedings; BJS (see footnote 1); own calculations at the Old Bailey in the latter half of the 19th century (see Fig 2) Similar shifts have been studied in US prisons since the 1970s (Porter et al., 2016) This paper focuses on understanding the potential economic and non-economic channels that underlie the shift in the age–crime profile in 19th century London, with an emphasis on the Industrial Revolution, changing attitudes, and the rise of imprisonment as the primary sanction The age of convicted offenders at the Old Bailey As the central criminal court for the City of London and surrounding Middlesex, the Old Bailey tried the most serious crimes in Victorian times Detailed information on the defendant, charge, verdict, and sentence of each case were recorded in The Proceedings of the Old Bailey The Old Bailey Proceedings Online has digitized this historical data source and provided xml files for each of the 2000 court sessions See Bindler and Hjalmarsson (2016) for more details on the data and context The primary variable of interest is defendant age One data limitation is that the Proceedings only consistently reported age Snyder, H and Mulako-Wangota, J., Arrest Data Analysis Tool (29-Sep-16) at www.bjs.gov Bureau of Justice Statistics, Washington, D.C 47 Fig Average age and share of juvenile convicts Note: average age and share of juveniles of male convicts at the Old Bailey (property crime) Source: Old Bailey Proceedings Online; own calculations Fig Criminal history and prison sentences Note: share of male convicts for property crime at the Old Bailey with any criminal history or prison sentences Source: See Fig for those found guilty; we cannot say anything about the age of those acquitted (25% of the sample from 1800 to 1900) Prior to 1789, age is missing for 99% of those convicted (in addition to those acquitted).2 Fig shows the average age of the 69,537 male offenders convicted of property crime, as well as the share of juvenile (below age 18) convicts.3 We focus on male property offenders (i) because at that time property offenses and male defendants comprise 71% and 83%, respectively, of all convicted cases and (ii) to ease comparison with Vickers and Ziebarth’s (2016) analysis of age at the Old Bailey from 1835 to 1913.4 The average age is U-shaped between 1800 and 1900, with a steep (17%) decrease from 29 to 24 years between 1800 and 1820, and a less steep but steady increase thereafter The share of juvenile offenders mirrors that pattern with an increase from 11% to 27%, respectively, and a steady decrease afterwards What explains these relatively large and ‘quick’ changes in convict age? See: https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/static/Population-history-of-london jsp#demography Property crimes include animal theft, arson, burglary, housebreaking, larceny, mail, receiving, shoplifting, stealing from master, and theft from place It is our understanding that Vickers and Ziebarth (2016) only had post-1835 data available for their analysis 48 A Bindler, R Hjalmarsson / Economics Letters 152 (2017) 46–49 Fig Average age by selected offense Note: average age of male convicts for larceny, pocket picking, housebreaking and burglary at the Old Bailey (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) Source: See Fig 3 The industrial revolution Researchers offer conflicting arguments regarding the impact of the Industrial Revolution on the age composition of criminals in 19th century London On the one hand, Vickers and Ziebarth (2016) argue that the Industrial Revolution led to younger generations gaining the specific skills necessary in the ‘new labor market’, and displaced older workers (especially males) into the criminal labor market, thereby increasing the average age of criminals Using the Old Bailey data from 1835 to 1913, the authors demonstrate an increase in the average age of male property offenders However, Fig casts some doubt on the Vickers and Ziebarth (2016) theory: the increase in average criminal age is only seen after 1820, despite the fact that the Industrial Revolution was fully under way in the early 1800s.5 That is, their graph starts at the bottom of the U-shaped curve in Fig In addition, if industrialization displaced older workers into crime, it is hard to reconcile this with the persistent increase in the average age of criminals over a time period of 80 years As Mokyr (1990) points out, ‘‘many workers displaced by machinery eventually found employment in the factories’’ On the other hand, historians have linked industrialization with the decreasing average criminal age in the early 1800s King (2000) reviews these arguments, which are typically predicated According to Mokyr (1990), the Ïndustrial Revolution is usually dated between about 1760 and 1830’’ on the assumption of a rapidly growing and predominantly young population, a flood of young migrants turning to crime instead of adapting, or the process of industrialization and the growth of factories itself, leading to a rise in juvenile crime However, King (2000) points out that ‘‘the capital [of London] witnessed no fundamental changes Its service sector remained large and its manufacturing sector was notable for the absence of major restructuring ’’ While we cannot rule out that the Industrial Revolution contributed to either the fall or rise in average criminal age, a more nuanced understanding is clearly necessary to reconcile the patterns observed in Fig This paper emphasizes two alternative channels through which the age composition of convicts may have been affected Changing attitudes towards juveniles One possibility is that it is not criminal behavior that is changing, but rather the behavior of the magistrates and courts First, King (2000) suggests that the observed ‘increase’ in juvenile crime can be attributed to victims and magistrates becoming more willing to hold juveniles responsible, especially once capital punishment was abolished Second, one could argue that the subsequent increase in average age is an explicit reaction to the increasing number of juvenile ‘offenders’ in the early 1800s According to King (2000), there was an increased use of summary judgments— decisions by magistrates rather than juries However, as demonstrated by Vickers and Ziebarth (2016), the average offender age A Bindler, R Hjalmarsson / Economics Letters 152 (2017) 46–49 is increasing in the latter 1800s even when excluding defendants under 18 Changing sentences: the rise of prison We offer an additional explanation for the increasing age of convicts in the latter half of the 19th century: the rise of the modern-day prison and the emergence of recidivism, which mechanically led to an increase in offender age In 1800 England, capital punishment and transportation to Australian penal colonies were the primary forms of punishment; in fact, there were more than 200 capital offenses at this time Capital punishment was abolished by a series of offense-specific Acts in the early and mid-1800s This led to an increase in transportation to Australia, characterized by a 4–6 month voyage when many became ill or died, hard labor upon arrival, and harsh discipline Eventually, the Penal Servitude Acts of 1853 and 1857 (primarily the former) abolished transportation Without capital punishment or transportation, England turned towards imprisonment as the primary sanction.6 For the sample of males convicted of a property crime, Fig shows the share with a known criminal history and the share sentenced to prison We manually coded criminal history, which is recorded (but not tagged) in the Proceedings from the 1830s onwards, and indicates whether the defendant had been in custody once before (from 1832), more than once (from 1839) or whether they were known associates of bad character (from 1835) Albeit not perfect,7 it is perhaps the first measure of recidivism The share of convicted males with a known criminal history is clearly trending up throughout the 19th century Likewise, there is a continual increase in the share sentenced to prison—from around 30% in 1832 to more than 80% by the end of the century Note that the share of prison sentences increases very sharply upon the abolition of transportation Finally, how did these changes in sentence regimes affect the age of criminals? Fig shows the average age of male convicts for larceny, pick-pocketing, housebreaking and burglary.8 Note that pick-pocketing is included in the larceny measure, but seems to be especially important for the increase in juvenile crime at the beginning of the 18th century For both larceny and pick-pocketing, See Bindler and Hjalmarsson (2016) for more details For instance, it is hard to know how offenses committed in other jurisdictions are tracked Available for other offenses upon request 49 the figures show the U-shaped pattern: the average convict age is sharply falling until 1820, remains relatively low until the 1850s, and then increases to pre-levels by the end of the century In fact, the start of that increase appears to coincide with the abolition of transportation (red vertical line), supporting our hypothesis above Housebreaking and burglary – capital eligible until 1833 and 1837, respectively, as marked by the first vertical line – follow similar patterns The increase in average convict age appears to be driven by the abolition of transportation (second vertical line) and not capital punishment, which is consistent with the use of transportation as a substitute sentence for the death penalty upon its abolition That is, an aging recidivist population is not observed until the offenders were kept alive in the United Kingdom Conclusion Understanding the sources of shifts in the age-distribution of crime is essential from a policy perspective Which subset of the population should criminal justice policies target? Though we discuss the role that penal institutions may play in shaping the age–crime profile in a historical context, this is clearly a question of modern day relevance References Becker, Gary, 1968 Crime and punishment: An economic approach J Polit Econ 76 (2), 169–217 Bindler, Anna, Hjalmarsson, Randi, 2016 The fall of capital punishment and the rise of prisons How punishment severity affects jury verdicts University of Gothenburg Working Papers in Economics 674 Grogger, Jeff, 1998 Market wages and youth crime J Labor Econ 16 (4), 756–791 King, Peter, 2000 Crime and Law in England, 1750-1840 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p 348 Landerso, Rasmus, Nielsen, Helena Skyt, Simonsen, Marianne, School starting age and the crime-age profile Econom J (forthcoming) Lochner, Lance, 2004 Education, work and crime: A human capital approach Internat Econom Rev 45 (3), 811–843 Mokyr, Joel, 1990 The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress Oxford University Press, p 349 Porter, Lauren, Bushway, Shawn, Tsao, Hui-Shien, Smith, Herbert, 2016 How the US prison boom has changed the age distribution of the prison population Criminology 54 (1), 30–55 Vickers, Chris, Ziebarth, Nicolas L., 2016 Economic development and the demographics of criminals in Victorian England J Law Econ 59, 191–223 ... studied in US prisons since the 1970s (Porter et al., 2016) This paper focuses on understanding the potential economic and non-economic channels that underlie the shift in the age? ? ?crime profile in... 1913, the authors demonstrate an increase in the average age of male property offenders However, Fig casts some doubt on the Vickers and Ziebarth (2016) theory: the increase in average criminal age. .. sentences: the rise of prison We offer an additional explanation for the increasing age of convicts in the latter half of the 19th century: the rise of the modern-day prison and the emergence of recidivism,