Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis B towards eliminating it as a major public health threat in China
(2022) 22:1179 Liu et al BMC Public Health https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13594-y Open Access RESEARCH Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis B towards eliminating it as a major public health threat in China Wenjun Liu1†, Tianyi Zhuang2†, Ruyi Xia1, Zhuoru Zou1, Lei Zhang3,4, Mingwang Shen1,3,5* and Guihua Zhuang1,3,5* Abstract Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) requires reduction in the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) in children to 0.1% by 2030, a key indicator for eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health threat Whether and how China can achieve this target remains unknown, although great achievements have been made We aimed to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target Methods: An age- and time-dependent dynamic compartmental model was constructed based on the natural history of HBV infection and the national history and current status of hepatitis B control The model was run from 2006 to 2040 to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence under three scenarios including maintaining current interventions (status quo), status quo + peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP, recommended by WHO in 2020), and scaling up current interventions + PAP Results: Under the status quo, HBsAg prevalence would decrease steadily in all age groups, but the WHO’s target of 0.1% prevalence in children aged