BAI BAO KHOA HOC GlOfI THIEU CAC PHlTOfNG P H A P DJNH LlTgfNG LOI ICH TRONG DAU TU" GIAM THIEU RUI RO N G A P L ^ T Nguyin ThiSn Dung^; Nguyen Quang Kim^; Nguyen Thu Hi^n Tdm tat: Viit Nam dugc xdc dinh la ndm viing chiu nhiiu thi?t hgi thien tai, ^gdp lut la mdt logi hinh thien tai phd biin nhdt Hdng ndm ngdp lut gdy rdt nhieu thiit hgi vi ngu&i, tdi sdn, co sa hg tdng, kinh ti, dnh hu&ng xa hgi vd phd hdy mdi tru&ng, do ddu tu vdo cdc cdng trinh phdng chong vd gidm nhe rui ro nggp lut da vd dang la mot nhitng uu tiin hdng ddu cita Nhd nu&c viec bdo vi tinh mgng vd tdi sdn cua nhdn ddn Vdn di ddt Id cdc du dn cd thuc sic hiiu qud vd ddm bdo bin virng rdi ro diiu kiin han hep ciia ngudn vdn ngdn sdch ddu tu Do cdn phdi ddnh gid hieu qud ddu tu cdc du dn mgt cdch nghiim tdc vd cdn trgng tic giai dogn quy hogch din giai dogn lap die dn ddu tu Nghiin cieu ndy se trinh bdy khdi qudt cde phuangphdp dfnh lugng cdc logi thiit hgi ngdp lut di ldm co so phdn tieh ddnh gid hiiu qud ddu tu cdng trinh phong chdng vd gidm nhe rui ro nggp lut T u khoa: Rui ro ngdp lyt, hieu qud ddu tu, dinh lugng, gidm thieu rui ro M O DAU Viet Nam nam frong vung nhiet ddi gio mua, la mpt frong nhihig nude thuge Chdu A Thdi Binh Duong noi chju anh hudng nang nS thudng xuyen phdi ddi mat vdi nhiSu loai hinh thien tai khoe liet Trung binh hdng nam, ude tinh thigt hai thiSn tai gdy eho nen kinh tS tuang duong khodng 1-1.5%GDP (World Bank, 2010) Theo Ludt phdng chdng thien tai (33/ 2013/QH13), thiSn tai dugc dinh nghia la hien tugng tu nhien bdt thudng cd thS gdy thiet hai vS ngudi, tai sdn, mdi trudng, dieu kien s6ng vd cdc hoat dgng kinh te - xd hdi Khi nhdc dSn eae rui ro thien tai, thi rui ro ngap lut dugc xem Id mgt nhihig rui ro phd bi^n nhdt eung nhu dnh hudng thiet hgi to ldn vS ngudi vd tai san nhu cac tinh miSn Trung, mgt so rhj ldn nhu ph6 Hd Chi Minh, Ha Ngi, VTnh Phuc Hang ndm, mgt ngudn ngan sdch nha nude rdt ldn dugc ddnh ddu tu vao c6ng tdc phdng chdng va gidm nhg rui ro ngdp lut, ey thS la cac dy an liSn quan din quy hoach tiSu thodt lii, cac edng trinh bdo ve phdng chdng vd gidm nhe rui ro ngap lut D d i v d i m g t q u d e g i a d a n g p h a t triSn n h u V i e t N a m , d u n g t r u d c rdt n h i e u v a n de edn phdi gidi quySt, cdn phdi d a n h n g d n sdch ddu t u ngodi g i a m thieu rui r o vS thiSn tai c d n phdi d a u t u eho e o sd hg tang, an ninh quoc phdng, y te va gido dye V i v g y d d i v d i e a c d y a n d a u t u gidm thieu rui r o t h i e n tai n o i c h i m g vd rui r o ngdp lut ndi rieng edn phdi d u g c x e m x e t vd tinh t o a n m g t e a c h can t h a n d y a trSn p h a n tich d a n h gid d a y du higu q u d d a u t u d a m bdo s d d y n g n g u d n v ^ n m g t cdch toi u u v d h i e u q u d nhdt DS d a n h gid d u g e d a y d u h i e u q u d k i n h xk c u a cac d y a n d d u t u p h d n g t r a n h v a g i a m n h e rui r o c a n ed n h i e u tiep cgn, p h u a n g p h a p p h d n tich ddnh gid d a m u c tieu, p h u o n g p h d p p h d n tich chi p h i higu q u a ( C B A ) , P h u o n g p h a p p h a n tich tdi u u rui r o d e ddnh gid higu q u d d d u t u d u dn TrSn t h e gidi p h u a n g p h d p C B A v i n d u g c s d d u n g n h u m d t c d n g e y e h u y e u frong m d td v a tinh t o a n chi p h i vd lgi i e h e d a cdc quySt d i n h ddu t u m a n g t i n h ddu t u e o n g ( M e c h l e r , ) P h u o n g p h a p C B A c u n g d u g e s d d u n g t r o n g p h d n tich gidm t h i e u riii r o thiSn tai frong cdc linh v y e c d n g tgi M y , Ausfralia vd nhiSu n u d e ( K r a m e r , 1995; M e c h l e r , 0 ) ' Truang Dgi hge Thuy l