Exploring Linked Ecological and Cultural Tipping Points in Mongolia Accepted Manuscript Title Exploring Linked Ecological and Cultural Tipping Points in Mongolia Authors Marı́a E Fernández Giménez,[.]
Accepted Manuscript Title: Exploring Linked Ecological and Cultural Tipping Points in Mongolia Authors: Mar´ıa E Fern´andez-Gim´enez, Niah H Venable, Jay Angerer, Steven R Fassnacht, Robin S Reid, Khishigbayar Jamyansharav PII: DOI: Reference: S2213-3054(17)30006-1 http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2017.01.003 ANCENE 130 To appear in: Received date: Revised date: Accepted date: 10-2-2016 13-12-2016 15-1-2017 Please cite this article as: Fern´andez-Gim´enez, Mar´ıa E., Venable, Niah H., Angerer, Jay, Fassnacht, Steven R., Reid, Robin S., Jamyansharav, Khishigbayar, Exploring Linked Ecological and Cultural Tipping Points in Mongolia.Anthropocene http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2017.01.003 This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain Exploring Linked Ecological and Cultural Tipping Points in Mongolia María E Fernández-Giménez1,2, Niah H Venable3, Jay Angerer4, Steven R Fassnacht 3, Robin S Reid2,3, Khishigbayar Jamyansharav1 Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Campus Mail 1472, Fort Collins, CO 80523, maria.fernandez-gimenez@colostate.edu (corresponding author) Center for Collaborative Conservation, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO Texas A&M Agrilife Research, Blackland Research and Extension Center, Temple, TX Abstract We review evidence of Holocene climate, vegetation, and cultural changes in Mongolia and critically examine evidence that Mongolia’s steppes are at the brink of ecological and cultural tipping points in the Anthropocene Until 5,000 YBP there is no evidence of lasting human influences on ecosystems, but after this time, changes in vegetation and soil physical properties signal domestic livestock grazing impacts on steppe ecosystems Contemporary (1991-2015) literature and region by region analysis of climate, livestock, remote-sensing and human population data reveal two potential tipping points Temperatures warmed across the regions Since 1991, livestock densities and forage use increased in most regions, the spatial distribution of grazing pressure is more heterogeneous, and variability increased in stocking densities, forage use and forage production in all or most regions Substantial plant species shifts and losses occurred in the mountain and forest steppe regions Although a large proportion of Mongolia’s rangelands are altered from their ecological potential, few have crossed an irreversible threshold of ecological change Rangelands in Mongolia’s Khangai, northern and central regions may be approaching an ecological tipping point if grazing pressure is not reduced After 1991, herder populations initially rose and then decreased significantly across most regions If demographic and social trends contribute to loss of herding knowledge and identity, a cultural tipping point could occur We describe four potential future scenarios that could unfold if these tipping points are reached, hypothesize feedbacks between ecological and cultural thresholds, and discuss implications for policy and management Keywords: paleo-ecology; archaeology; pastoralism; social-ecological system; coupled human and natural system; threshold Introduction A growing body of theory recognizes the complex interactions between human society and the earth systems we depend upon (Gunderson and Holling 2002, Walker and Salt 2006, Liu et al 2007, Ostrom 2009) Identifying potential thresholds or tipping points in these linked systems is a priority for sustainability science, to avoid undesirable transitions or regime shifts (Scheffer and Carpenter 2003), and to foster transformations to new system configurations when necessary (Moore et al 2014) Key questions are: 1) how much stress can a given system take before it reaches a tipping point? and 2) if a tipping point is reached in one part of the system (e.g ecosystem), will it affect other parts of the system (e.g social and cultural system)? Mongolia is an ideal place to examine such dynamics because its pastoral socialecological system (SES) has persisted for millennia despite significant political and economic change and environmental variability Since the country’s transition to a market economy and democracy in 1990, multiple interacting environmental and socio-economic forces influence Mongolia’s social and ecological conditions, potentially altering system structure and dynamics After providing a conceptual introduction to tipping points, we first place recent changes in Mongolia’s pastoral SES in pre-historical and historical context by reviewing past research for evidence of environmental and cultural tipping points We then analyze recent time series data for trends and to detect signals of recent or approaching tipping points Finally, we explore future system trajectories using scenarios, discuss the mechanisms for feedbacks between potential future environmental and cultural tipping points, and consider implications for policy and management Tipping points within coupled social-ecological systems Threshold dynamics occur when a small change in a driving variable causes a large, often discontinuous, and sometimes irreversible change in a response variable (Andersen et al 2008, Hughes et al 2013, Petraitis 2013) Scheffer and Carpenter (2009) distinguish between irreversible, catastrophic thresholds, and non-catastrophic thresholds, which are potentially reversible Regime shifts happen when the feedbacks that maintain a system within a given domain are altered to the extent that a new set of feedbacks takes over, resulting in a system with major structural and functional differences from the previous one (Scheffer and Carpenter 2003, Walker and Salt 2006) Here, we use “tipping points” to refer to reversible and irreversible thresholds, regime shifts, and other long-term system-level changes, regardless of whether these changes are sudden or non-linear Ecological thresholds or tipping points in rangeland systems have been well-explored, focusing on woody plant encroachment (Archer 1989), invasive species (Knapp 1996), and desertification (Scheffer et al 2001) Of these, desertification, defined as “a broad set of environmental degradation processes that result in the persistent decrease in the productivity of drylands” (Verstraete et al 2009,p.421), is the most relevant threshold type in Mongolia A desertification threshold is signaled by an irreversible loss of vegetation cover and production over timescales relevant to management, which limits future secondary production and the provision of ecosystem services including forage production, water infiltration and storage, habitat and biodiversity, and cultural services such as sense of place, cultural identity and production and maintenance of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) Social and cultural tipping points have received less attention in the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) literature, where examples often highlight civilizations that collapsed as a result of human-caused environmental change (e.g Easter Island, Chaco Canyon) (Walker and Meyers 2004, Walker and Salt 2006, Ostrom 2009) Walker and Meyers (2004) posit that threshold dynamics and regime shifts occur in social systems in a manner analogous to ecosystems Some social scientists are skeptical about the simplistic application of concepts such as resilience, regime change, and thresholds to social systems (Nuttall 2012, Olsson et al 2015) Among their concerns are the overemphasis on institutional drivers of system change, and insufficient consideration of human agency, culture, social differences, power and inequities in CHANS dynamics (Nuttall 2012, Olsson et al 2015) Westley et al (2003) point out that human capacity for self-reflection, forward thinking, and creation of symbolic meaning, or culture, fundamentally distinguishes human system dynamics from those of ecosystems Here, we define culture as a set of shared meanings, world view, rituals, symbols, values, knowledge, practices and associated material artifacts, created and transmitted by a specific group of people over multiple generations (Adger et al 2012) These shared meanings, values and practices, etc give rise to a sense of identity associated with membership in a cultural group and with place (Adger et al 2012), and condition responses to change (Kirsch 2001, Adger et al 2012) One aspect of culture that has been neglected in the CHANS literature is traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), the dynamic and evolving body of knowledge, specific to a particular people and place, which encompasses knowledge of biophysical elements and interactions; management practices, technology and skills; and cultural institutions, values and beliefs (Berkes 1999, Fernandez-Gimenez 2000) TEK develops through direct experience living and working in a particular ecosystem and is culturally transmitted within communities and across generations TEK informs understanding of CHANS because it is a key mechanism for detecting and responding to environmental change (Berkes et al 2003, Fernandez-Gimenez and Estaque 2012, Kassam 2013), and thus for regulating the feedbacks between coupled ecological and social systems (Figure 1) Given the definition of culture above, what constitutes a cultural tipping point? Observing material artifacts of past cultures, archeologists (Liu and Feng 2012, Leigh et al 2013) refer to cultural tipping points as concurrent shifts in economy, livelihood strategies, technology, values, spatial and social organization that can be inferred from artifacts We add to this list changes in cultural norms, identity, and TEK While both culture and TEK are dynamic and constantly evolving (Kirsch 2001), we posit that a major shift in livelihood strategy can lead to a cultural tipping point, whereby the cultural attributes differ substantially from those associated with the previous livelihood When culture is intertwined with occupational and place identity, and with access to, use and stewardship of particular resources, if people lose access (e.g via forced resettlement or environmental disaster), or voluntarily abandon places or livelihoods (e.g rural-urban migration), then place- and livelihood-based cultural knowledge and identity are diminished, with sometimes devastating consequences for human well-being (Kirsch 2001, Adger et al 2012) We argue that because TEK is generated and maintained through active use in a management context, system changes that trigger a decline in herder populations or large shifts in herding practices, may cause a loss of associated herding TEK (Tang and Gavin 2010, Fernandez-Gimenez and Estaque 2012, Zheng et al 2015) Loss of TEK, in turn, may initiate a cultural tipping point Linked social and ecological tipping points Resilience theory suggests that moderately coupled social-ecological systems are resilient, because the feedbacks between sub-systems enable learning and adaptation (Walker and Salt 2006) (Figure 1) In a moderately coupled system, humans are more likely to detect and respond to changes in ecosystems in time to avert undesirable regime shifts or thresholds TEK and more formal monitoring can play key roles in coupling, especially when embedded within natural resource management institutions that facilitate timely response to information about environmental changes Uncoupled systems or those that are too tightly linked create vulnerabilities due to lack of sensitivity (uncoupled) or oversensitivity (tightly coupled) to change For example, Li and Li (2012) argue that in China’s Inner Mongolia, government interventions decoupled traditionally coupled social and ecological systems, resulting in a loss of adaptive capacity Walker and Meyers (2004) conceptually explore the linkages between ecological and social regime shifts, and identify 11 potential types of linkage ranging from no linkage to fully coupled systems in which a regime shift in either the social or ecological system leads to a regime shift in the other In this article, we examine evidence and conceptually explore the potential for linked ecological and cultural tipping points in Mongolian pastoral SESs Detecting tipping points Detecting tipping points is challenging Potential indicators of tipping points inferred from time series include jumps in a time series of a state variable that are not in response to a proportional step change in a controlling variable (Scheffer and Carpenter 2003, Petraitis 2013) For example, if forage production declines rapidly, outside historical rates, with only a small increase in grazing pressure, then the system has likely crossed an ecological tipping point Such jumps may indicate thresholds if the changes in the state variable are irreversible, even after the controlling variable returns to former levels Warning signals that a regime shift is approaching may include increased or decreased variance in the system, increased temporal autocorrelation, and changes in spatial patterns (Scheffer et al 2009) Social and cultural tipping point indicators are more challenging to define Over periods of centuries to millennia, dominant forms of subsistence, settlement patterns, and social and political organization indicate persistent and potentially irreversible changes Sociologists have used mathematical threshold models, similar to those used by ecologists, to identify social tipping points in the adoption and diffusion of technological innovations (Granovetter and Soong 1983), and demographic changes, such as “white flight” from racially mixed neighborhoods (Schelling 1971) Adger (2000) aligns with Walker and Meyers (2004) in his focus on institutions as the primary indicator of social regime shifts, but suggests a more complex and nuanced set of proxy indicators for social resilience including economic growth, income distribution, livelihood stability, and demographics Christensen and Krogman (2012) propose an alternative to the “breakpoint” approach to defining social thresholds and suggest that instead they be understood as “collectively recognized points that signify new experiences.” Moore et al ( 2014) propose that elements of social systems expected to change include norms, values and beliefs, rules and practices, and the distribution of power and wealth None of these works references cultural identity, values or culturally embedded TEK, as potential cultural tipping point indicators (but see Adger et al 2012) Our objectives are to critically examine evidence for past or impending environmental and cultural tipping points, and to explore potential linkages and feedbacks between these two types of tipping points We use two sources of evidence First, we review and synthesize existing paleo-ecological, archaeological, historical and contemporary ecological and social research on Mongolian pastoral systems to critically examine evidence for past environmental and cultural tipping points and possible feedbacks between them Second, we conduct new analyses of statistical and remote sensing data by region to assess trends and detect signals of recent or impending tipping points Next, we use scenarios to explore potential future trajectories of Mongolian pastoral SESs Finally, we discuss potential linked cultural and ecological tipping points revealed by our analyses and highlight research and policy implications Methods Review of existing paleo-proxy and archaeological research We reviewed recent research on paleo-ecology, paleo-climate and archaeology from present-day Mongolia and surrounding regions (northern China and southern Siberia) and summarized these findings in a map (Figure 2, Table 1) and a table (Table 2) to qualitatively assess evidence of associations between changing climate, environment, and human society and culture We sought evidence of past environmental and cultural tipping points, and of feedbacks between them, including 1) evidence that environmental changes led to social and cultural change in pastoral systems, 2) evidence that human land use caused lasting environmental change, and 3) evidence that human-caused environmental change fed back to influence culture To make inferences about past climatic and vegetation conditions, we drew on a variety of sources that included site specific studies to regional reviews, and which used a variety of data types including lake and terrestrial sediment, peat, ice cores, tree-ring reconstruction, and pollen analyses Some of these studies directly compared archaeological evidence with vegetation and climate conditions to draw conclusions about potential linkages between the two In addition, we reviewed archaeological and historical research from Mongolia focusing on the time period from the Bronze Age emergence of pastoralism in Mongolia (~5000 YBP, 3000 BCE) through the end ... Detecting tipping points Detecting tipping points is challenging Potential indicators of tipping points inferred from time series include jumps in a time series of a state variable that are not in. .. herding TEK (Tang and Gavin 2010, Fernandez-Gimenez and Estaque 2012, Zheng et al 2015) Loss of TEK, in turn, may initiate a cultural tipping point Linked social and ecological tipping points. .. or ecological system leads to a regime shift in the other In this article, we examine evidence and conceptually explore the potential for linked ecological and cultural tipping points in Mongolian