Economic Growth and Government Subventions for Agriculture Sector in Algeria An ARDL Model a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( 2 0 1 6 ) 105 – 114 Available online at www[.]
a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier com/locate/ aebj ΕϮΠϔϠϟϲΗάϟέΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϨϟΎϘϓϭ ήΰΠϟϲϓ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ ΔϋίϮϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟ Economic Growth and Government Subventions for Agriculture Sector in Algeria: An ARDL Model Mokhtari Fayỗal a*, Houari Moulay Ali b a b University of Mascara, Algeria University of Mascara, Algeria κΨϠϣ ARTICLE INFO ϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϗϼϋέΎΒΘΧϰϠϋΔγέΪϟΪϤΘόΗϭήΰΠϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΗΔγέΩϰϠϋϝΎϘϤϟΰϛήϳ Article history: Autoregressive-Distributed Lag ΔϋίϮϤϟ ΔϴϨϣΰϟ ΕϮΠϔϠϟ ϲΗάϟ έΪΤϧϻ ΝΫϮϤϨϟ ΎϘϓϭ ΄τΨϟ ϴΤμΗ ΝΫϮϤϧϭ ϙήΘθϤϟ Received 10 May 16 Received in revised form 28 September ϢϋΩϥϰϟ·ΞΎΘϨϟΕέΎηΪϗϭ ΓήΘϓϝϼΧΔϳϮϨγΕΎϴτόϤϟϚϟΫϭˬ Pesaran and al (2001)ϞΒϗϦϣέϮτϤϟ (ARDL) 16 ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎΒϠγήΛΆϳϭˬϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎϴΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭϲΣϼϔϟ ΝΎΘϧϹ Accepted 03 October 16 ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΎόϣϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭΝΎΘϧϹΎΑϪΘϗϼϋϦϋήψϨϟξϐΑϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟΔϳΩήϔϟϟΎμϤϟϰϠϋήμΘϘϤϟϢϋΪϟϦϣΔϴϤϫήΜϛήΒΘόϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϲϓϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟΔϤϫΎδϣϥΔγέΪϟϦϴΒΗΎϤϛ ΔϴΣΎΘϔϤϟΕΎϤϠϜϟ ϱΩΎμΘϗϹϮϤϨϟ ABSTRACT ϢϋΪϟ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟ The article analyzes the impact of government support of the agricultural sector on the economic growth in ARDL Algeria The study is based on cointegration relation and error correction model according to Autoregressive Keywords: Distributed Lag (ARDL) model developed by Pesaran and al (2001) The results indicated that the support Economic growth of agriculture production and producers has a positive impact on the agricultural growth, while it has a Support negative impact on the economic growth in the long term On the other side, the total agricultural support Agricultural sector regardless of its relationship with production and producers has a positive impact on agricultural production ARDL growth and economic growth in the long term Finally, the total support of the agricultural sector is more important than individual support for agricultural producers © 2016 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik Hosting by Elsevier B.V All rights reserved * Corresponding author Email address: mokhtarifaycal@gmail.com Peer review under responsibility of Holy Spirit University of Kaslik xxxx-xxxx/$ ± see front matter © 2016 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik Hosting by Elsevier B.V All rights reserved 2214-4625/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2016.10.001 106 a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 ΔϣΪϘϣ ΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟΕΎγέΪϟϞϜϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϲϓϪΘϤϫΎδϣϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϐϟΎΒϟΔϴϤϫϷΐΒδΑϚϟΫϭˬϝϭΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟϲϓΓΪϤΘόϤϟΔϳΩΎμΘϗϹΕΎγΎϴδϟϢϫϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϢϋΩήΒΘόϳ ϰϠϋή˷ΛΆΗΪϗήηΎΒϤϟϢϋΪϟϭϝΎΠϤϟϲϓΔϴϣϮϜΣΓϮτΧΔϳϭΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕϼΧΪΘϟ˯ί·ΪΟαΎδΣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΎϓˬήΧϰϟ·ΩΎμΘϗϦϣϒϠΘΨϳϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϤϫΎδϣϥϰϠϋΪϛΆΗ ϦϜϟϭϪΘϴδϓΎϨΗϰϠϋυΎϔΤϠϟϭωΎτϘϠϟϢΩϮϤϧϖϴϘΤΘϟΕΎϣϮϜΤϟΎϫΪϤΘόΗϲΘϟΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕΎγΎϴδϟϢϫϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟήηΎΒϤϟήϴϐϟϭήηΎΒϤϟϢϋΪϟΕ˯ήΟ·ήΒΘόΗϚϟάϟϭϞϜϛΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋϭωΎτϘϟ ϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϭκϴμΨΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϛϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΘϟϝϼΧϦϣϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋήΛΆϳΪϗϭ ˬΔϴΣϼϔϟήϴϏΕΎϋΎτϘϟϩΎΠΗΎΑϱϑΪϬΘδϤϟ ωΎτϘϟΝέΎΧήΒϛΕήϴΛ΄ΗϢϋΪϠϟ ϥϮϜϳΪϗϪϧ ϰϟ·ΓέΎηϹέΪΠΗ ιήϓϖϠΧϭΝΎΘϧϹΓΩΎϳίϰϟ·ϱΩΆϳΎϣϮϫϭΕϼΧΪϤϟϡΪΨΘγΓΩΎϳίϭΔΣϼϔϟϲϓέΎϤΜΘγϻΕέήϗϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΘϟϝϼΧ ϦϣήϬψΗϢϋΪϟϭΕΎϧΎϋϺϟΔϴΑΎΠϳϹέΎΛϵϥΔψΣϼϤϟϦϜϤϳΎϤϛΔλΎΧΝΎΘϧϹ ϡΪόΑςΒΗήϳΪϘϓΕΎϧΎϋϺϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟΎϣΓΪϳΪΠϟΕΎϴϨϘΘϟϝΎΧΩ·ϭέΎϜΘΑϻϰϠϋΕΎϧΎϋϹϩάϫΕΰϔΣˬΔϴϨϘΘϟΔϴϟΎόϔϟϭΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋ ΔϴΑΎΠϳϹΕήϴΛ΄Θϟϰϟ·ΔϓΎο·ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϞΧΩΔϴϓΎο·ϞϤϋ ϢϬρΎΒΗέΔΠϴΘϧΕϼΧΪϤϟϡΪΨΘγϦϣϞϴϠϘΘϟϰϟ·ϢϋΪϟϦϣϥϭΪϴϔΘδϤϟϥϮΣϼϔϟ΄ΠϠϳΚϴΣˬΕΎϧΎϋϹϲϓΓΩΎϳΰϟ˯ήΟϦϣξϔΨϨΗΪϗϲΘϟϭΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋϲΒϠγήϴΛ΄ΗϪϟϥϮϜϳΚϴΤΑˬκϴμΨΘϟΓ˯Ύϔϛ ΓήηΎΒϤϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕΎμμΨϤϟΎΑ ήΛΔλΎΧΔϔμΑϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϴϟΎόϓϰϠϋϢϋΪϟήΛΪϳΪΤΗϰϠϋΕΰϛέΕΎγέΪϟξόΒϓˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΗΔϘϳήρϦϴΒΗϥ˶ΕΎγέΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟΖϟϭΎΣΪϗϭ ˬΎόΑΎΗήϴϐΘϣήϴΧϷάϫϞόΠΑϚϟΫϭˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϢϋΪϟήΛϞϴϠΤΗϰϠϋϯήΧΕΎγέΩΕΰϛ˷ έΎϤϨϴΑωΎτϘϟΝέΎΧϢϋΪϟΞΎΘϧΓΎϋήϣϥϭΩϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϟΎϤόϟϭΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋϢϋΪϟ ϦϴΑΔϗϼόϟΕΩΪΤϣϢϫϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϥέΎΒΘϋΎΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋήΛϷρΎϘγ·ϢΘϳϭΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήΛΔγέΩϝϼΧϦϣϭ ϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑ˯ήΟϦϣΩΎμΘϗϻΎϬϠϤΤΘϳϲΘϟΔϔϠϜΘϟϊϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϟΎϤόϟϭΝΎΘϧϹΐγΎϜϣϦϴΑΖϧέΎϗΕΎγέΪϟϦϣήΧϒϨλϙΎϨϫϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭΔΣϼϔϟ ΔϳήψϨϟΕΎΑέΎϘϤϟ Ciaian and Swinnen ΔϴϨϘΘϟΓ˯ΎϔϜϟϭΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΎΒϠγήΛΆϳϦϴΣϲϓˬϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳ ϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟϥ theoretical approaches ΔϳήψϨϟΕΎΑέΎϘϤϟϦϴΒΗ ϲϓϭ.ΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϟϰϠϋϲΒϠδϟΎϫήϴΛ΄ΗΐΒδΑωΎτϘϟΝέΎΧΔϴΒϠγέΎΛϪϟϥϮϜΗϦϴΣϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϰϠϋΔϴΑΎΠϳ·έΎΛϪϟϥϮϜϳΪϗϡϮϬϔϤϟάϬϟΎϘϓϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩϥϱ(2009) ΝΎΘϧϹ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΕήηΆϣϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϪΟϮϤϟϲϣϮϜΤϟ ϢϋΪϠϟ ϲΑΎΠϳϹήϴΛ΄ΘϟϝϮΣΎΒϳήϘΗϖϔΘΗΔϗϼόϟϩάϫϦϣϖϘΤΘϠϟ empirical studies ΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟΕΎγέΪϟϥΈϓ ˬϩΎΠΗϻ βϔϧ ϊϤΘΠϤϟΔϴϫΎϓέϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭˬϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋΎϫήϴΛ΄ΗϭΞϣήΒϟϩάϬϟΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϟϝϮΣΎϤΎϗϰϘΒϳϝΪΠϟϥήϴϏˬ ΔϟΎϤόϟϭ ϢϋΪϟΞϣΎϧήΑΪϮϓϦϣΔΎϤϟϲϓ ΎΒϳήϘΗϥϡΎόϟϥίϮΘϟΔϘϳήρϡΪΨΘγΎΑ Rosine and Helmberger (1974) ΔγέΩϦϴΒΗˬϦϴϋέΰϤϟϰϠϋϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϠϟήηΎΒϤϟήΛϷϝΎΠϣϲϓ ϰϟ·ϥΎΜΣΎΒϟέΎηΎϤϛϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟΐγΎϜϤϛέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣϞΑΎϘϣέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣϲϫΐήπϟϲόϓΩϭϦϴϜϠϬΘδϤϟΓέΎδΧϥϥΎΜΣΎΒϟέ˷Ϊ ϗΪϗϭϲοέϷϙϼϣϰϠϋΩϮόΗΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϟϲϓϲΣϼϔϟ Bale and Lutz (1981) ΔγέΩΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϠϟΓέΎδΨϛΎΘϨγϲϫϊϤΘΠϤϟϒϴϟΎϜΗϭˬϲοέϷϙϼϣϰϟ·ΎΘϨγ ΐϫάΗˬΔϴϜϳήϣϷΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϠϟΔΣϼϔϟϢϋΩΞϣήΑϦϋϢΟΎϧέϻϭΩϞϛϥ ϞλϮΗΪϘϓ Gardner (1986)Ύϣ ΔϴϠϜϟΔϴϫΎϓήϠϟΔϔϠϜϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϬΟϮϤϟϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑΔΠϴΘϧΓΪϤΘόϤϟΔϳήόδϟΕΎγΎϴδϟϥΖϨϴΑϝϭΩ ϲϓΔϳΩΎμΘϗϻΔϴϟΎόϔϟϰϠϋΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϟήΛϝϮΣ ΐήπϟϲόϓΩϭϦϴϜϠϬΘδϤϠϟήΎδΧέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣΎϬϠΑΎϘϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϟΎμϟέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣΏΐγΎϜϣϲϓΖϠΜϤΗΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϟϲϓΔϴΣϼϔϟΕ˯ήΟϺϟϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΔϴϠΤϤϟΔϔϠϜΘϟϥϰϟ· ΔΣϼϔϟϲϓϝΎϤόϟϞϴΧΪϣϦϴΑϕέϮϔϟϭΔΣϼϔϠϟΔμμΨϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϢΠΣϦϴΑΔϴΒϠγΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϰϟ· ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϟϞλϮΗΪϘϓˬϞΧΪϟϊϳίϮΗΓΩΎϋ·ϲϓΕΎϧΎϋϹΔϴϟΎόϔϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑΎϣ ΎϤϛ ΔϴϤΤϤϟήϴϏΕΎϋΎτϘϟΔϴϘΑ ϦϣΔϤϼϣϦδΣΖδϴϟϦϴΣϼϔϟ ΔϴόοϭϥϭˬαϼϓϹϦϣΓΪΤΘϤϟΕΎϳϻϮϟ ϲϓϦϴϋέΰϤϟ ϢΤΗϢϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγϥ ΎπϳφΣϻΎϤϛϯήΧϷΕΎϋΎτϘϟ ϲϓϝΎϤόϟϭ ϻ·ϥϮϤϠΘδϳϻϢϋΪϟάϫϦϣϦϳΩϮμϘϤϟϦϴϋέΰϤϟϥΎϤϛΩΎμΘϗϻΎϬϨϣΪϴϔΘδϳΔϴδϴϧϭΪϧϹΔΣϼϔϠϟΔϬΟϮϤϟΓΪϤγϸϟϲϟΎϤϟϢϋΪϟϦϣςϘϓϥHedley and al (1989)ΔγέΩΖΤοϭ ϢϋΪϠϟΔΠϴΘϧΔϳΩΎμΘϗ·ήΎδΧΩϮΟϭϰϠϋΪϛΆΗΔγέΪϠϟΔϴδϴήϟΔΠϴΘϨϟϭ ΓΪϤγϸϟΩήϴΘγϻϭˬήϳΪμΘϟϭˬϊϳίϮΘϟ ΓΪϤγϷΝΎΘϧ·ωΎτϗϮϫϢϋΪϟϦϣήΒϛϷΪϴϔΘδϤϟϰϘΒϳϭΔϴϟΎϤϟϪΘϤϴϗϦϣ ϊϓήϳ ΔϴϛήϤΠϟϡϮγήϟ˯Ύϐϟ· ΔϴδϧϮΘϟΔΣϼϔϟϰϠϋΔϳΎϤΤϟ˯Ύϐϟ·ϥϰϟ·ˬϲδϧϮΘϟΩΎμΘϗϼϟϲΑΎδΤϟϡΎόϟϥίϮΘϠϟΝΫϮϤϧϡΪΨΘγϰϠϋ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϟΔγέΩΪϛΆΗˬϩΎΠΗϻβϔϧϲϓ 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ˬϝϭήΘΒϟΕΪΎϋϦϣΔϴϤϨΘϟϞϳϮϤΗϰϠϋϢΎϗϱϮϤϨΗΝΫϮϤϧΪϤΘόΗϲϫϭϲϟϭήΘΒϟϊϳήϟϰϠϋΪϤΘόΗϲΘϟϥΪϠΒϟϦϴΑϦϣ ήΰΠϟ ΓήηΎΒϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϒϠΘΨϤϟέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣϲϟϮΣήΰΠϟΖμμΧˬϝϭήΘΒϟέΎόγωΎϔΗέϞόϔΑϭϰϟ·ϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟϲϓϪϧφΣϼϤϟϭΕΎϗϭήΤϤϟΕέΩΎμΑΓήϴΒϛΔΒδϨΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ ϦϴΑωΎϔΗέϞϴΠδΗϊϣ %ΩϭΪΣϲϓϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϤϫΎδϣΔΒδϧΕήϘΘγ ˬΓήΘϔϟ βϔϧϲϓϭ ΔϴΑήόϟϝϭΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟΕΎμμΨϣϝΩΎόΗΓήΒΘόϣ Δϴϧΰϴϣϲϫϭ ΓήηΎΒϣήϴϐϟϭ ΎϫήϴΛ΄ΗΚϴΣϦϣϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑϭΔϴΣϼϔϟΕΎγΎϴδϟϢϴϴϘΘΑΖϣΎϗˬήΰΠϟΔϟΎΣϰϠϋΕΰϛέϲΘϟΕΎγέΪϟΔϴΒϟΎϏϥϮϫήΰΠϟέΎϴΘΧΎπϳ έήΒϳΎϤϣϭ.ΩϭΪΣϲϓήϘΘδΘϟϭ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϭϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋΕΎγΎϴδϟϩάϫήϴΛ΄ΗϚϟάΑΔϠϫΎΠΘϣˬϲΣϼϔϟΩΎμΘϗϻϰϠϋ ΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧΪϳΪΤΗϢΗϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧήϴδϔΗϰϠϋΰϛήϴϓϲϧΎΜϟΝΫϮϤϨϟΎϣˬήΰΠϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟήϴδϔΗϰϠϋϝϭϷΝΫϮϤϨϟΰϛήϳΚϴΣˬϦϴΟΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϢΗˬαΎγϷάϫϰϠϋϭ ϦϣήϴΜϛϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩήΛ ϑϼΘΧΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟϭΔϳήψϨϟΕΎγέΪϟΕήϬυϭ ήΰΠϟΔϟΎΣΓΎϋήϣϊϣ ΔϘΑΎδϟΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟ ΕΎγέΪϟϭΔϳήψϨϟΕΎΑέΎϘϤϟϖϓϭ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟ ΔϘϠόΘϤϟήϳΪϘΘϟΞΎΘϧρΎϘγ·ϦϜϤϳϻϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϪδϔϧϮϫϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΑΎΠϳϹήΛϷϥϮϜϳϥϱέϭήπϟϦϣβϴϟϪϧϱϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϭϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϥΎϴΣϷ ϢϋΪϟήΛΔϓήόϤϟϝϭϷΝΫϮϤϨϟ ϦϴΟΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϰϟ·ΎϧΩΎϗˬΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟήψϧΔϬΟϭϦϣήΛϷϲϓϑϼΘΧϻάϫϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧΝΫϮϤϧϲϓϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΘΑ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟΔΣϼϔϟΐΒδΗϥΔϴϧΎϜϣ·ϱˬϦϴϫΎΠΗϻϲϓϥϮϜΗΪϗΔϴΒΒδϟϥΈϓˬΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟΕΎγέΪϟΞΎΘϧϖϓϭϭ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋήΛϷϥΎϴΒΘϟϲϧΎΜϟΝΫϮϤϨϟϭˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟ ϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϟ·ϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϦϣϰϨόϤΑˬβϛΎόϤϟϩΎΠΗϻϲϓϥϮϜΗΪϗΔϴΒΒδϟϥϰϟ·ήϴθΗΞΠΤϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟϥϙέΪϧϥϱέϭήπϟϦϣϚϟΫϊϣϭΔϴϣΎϨϟϥΪϠΒϟϲϓΎϤϴγϻΔόϨϘϣϭΪΒΗ άϫ Pesaran and al (2001) ϞΒϗϦϣέϮτϤϟ Auto Regressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) ΔϋίϮϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟΕϮΠϔϠϟϲΗάϟέΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϧϡΪΨΘδϧˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϦϴΟΫϮϤϨϟήϳΪϘΘϟϭ ρήθϟΎϓ I (1) ϭ I (0) ΔΟέΪϟβϔϧϦϣΔϠϣΎϜΘϣΎόϴϤΟΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϥϮϜΗϥΐϠτΘϳϻϪϧ΄ΑΕέΎΒΘΧϻϲϗΎΑϦϋέΎΒΘΧϻάϫίΎΘϤϳΚϴΤΑˬΔϓϭήόϤϟϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΕέΎΒΘΧϻϞϳΪΒϛήΒΘόϳΝΫϮϤϨϟ I (2).ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣΎϳϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩϥϮϜΗϻϮϫέΎΒΘΧϻάϫϖϴΒτΘϟΪϴΣϮϟ ΪϛΆΗϲΘϟϭ UDOH, Elijah (2011) ΔγέΩΎϬϨϣˬ ARDLϖϳήτΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΔϴΣϼϔϟΔγΎϴδϟήΛϲϓήψϨϟΎΑΓΪϳΪϋΕΎγέΩΖϣΎϗˬϝΎΠϤϟάϫϲϓϭ ϮϤϨϟϥΎΘϳέϭήοΎόϣΎϤϫΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕΎϘϔϨϟΔγΎϴγϭέΎόγϷΔγΎϴγϥήΒΘόΗQazi Muhammad Adnan Hye et al (2010) ΔγέΩϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕΎϘϔϨϠϟϲΑΎΠϳϹήΛϷϰϠϋ ΔϴϋέΰϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋΪΟϒϴόοήϴΛ΄ΗϪϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϕΎϔϧϹϥΕήΒΘϋϲΘϟKADIR, Shariff Umar Sh Abd and TUNGGAL, Noor Zainab (2015)ΔγέΩϚϟάϛϭ.ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟ ΕΎϘϔϨϟΔϤϴϘΑϪϨϋήϴΒόΘϟ ϢΗϱάϟϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟ ϢϋΪϟήϴϐΘϣϭΕΩέϮϟϲϟΎϤΟ·ϦϣΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟΔΒδϧϰϟ·ΔϓΎο·ˬϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟ ϦϣΐδϨϛϮϤϧΕϻΪόϣϞϤθΗΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϣ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΩΔγΎϴγϲϓήϴϐΘϟϦϋήϴΒόΘϠϟϲϤϫϭήϴϐΘϣϰϠϋΝΫϮϤϨϟϯϮΘΣΎϤϛϯήΧϷΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϣΎδϧΎΠΘϣϪϠόΠϟϢΘϳέΎϏϮϠϟΎΑήϴΧϷάϫΏΎδΣϢΗϭϱήϟϭΔΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΔϬΟϮϤϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟ ϭ ϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟϲϓΔΘΑΎΜϟέΎόγϷΎΑΔϳϮϨγΔϴϨϣίϞγϼγΪϳΪΤΗϢΗϭϯήΧϰϟ·ΓήΘϓϦϣϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ ΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϣ1 ϝϭΪΠϟ ΔϠδϠδϟέΪμϣ ΔϠδϠδϟϢγ ΔϠδϠδϟΰϣέ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϮϤϧϝΪόϣ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟϮϤϧϝΪόϣ PIB PIBA ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϟϲϓΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟϮϤϧϝΪόϣ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔϳϮΌϣΔΒδϧ ϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟ ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔϳϮΌϣΔΒδϧ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϓΎπϤϟΔϤϴϘϟ AGRI ϲϟϭΪϟϚϨΒϠϟΕΎϧΎϴΒϟΓΪϋΎϗ ΕΩέϮϟϲϟΎϤΟ·Ϧϣ% ΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟ IMPO ΔϨγϞϜϟΔϴϟΎϤϟϦϴϧϮϗ ΰϴϬΠΘϟΕΎϘϔϧ ϱήϟϭΔΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲΎϬϨϟϊΑΎτϟΕΫΕΎϘϔϨϟ PIBI INDU ST ΝΎΘϧϺϟϢϋΩΎϬϴϓΪΟϮϳϻϲΘϟΓήΘϔϟϲϓ 0 ΔϤϴϘϟϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΩήϴϐΘϣάΧ΄ϳ ϭ 0 ϢϴϘϟάΧ΄ϳ SP ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΩϦϋήϴΒόΘϠϟϲϤϫϭήϴϐΘϣϰϠϋϚϟάϛϥΎΟΫϮϤϨϟ ϯϮΘΣΪϗϭ ΎϴΎμΣ·ΔϟϮΒϘϣϥϮϜΗΔϠϳϮρΔϴϨϣίΔϠδϠδϟΔϘϴϗΩΔϴϤϛΕΎϧΎϴΑϰϟ·ϝϮλϮϟϦϣΎϨϨϜϤΗϡΪόϟήψϧϲϤϫϮϟήϴϐΘϤϟΝέΩ·ϢΗΪϗϭϦϴΣϼϔϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϺϟϳήμϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩΓήΘϓϲϓΔϤϴϘϟϭϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΩήΛ ˬϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϟϭˬϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟ ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΔτγϮΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟήδϔϳΝΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϝϼΧϦϣϢΘϴγϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήΛΪϳΪΤΗ ϢΗϭϱήϟϭΔΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΰϴϬΠΘϟΕΎϘϔϨΑϪϨϋήϴΒόΘϟϢΗήϴΧϷάϫϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϭΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟϭˬϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔϋΎϨμϟΔμΣϭˬϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔΣϼϔϟΔμΣϭ 108 a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 భ మ ǻࡼࡵ ൌ ܽ Ⱦ୨ ο ɀ୨ ο ୲ି୨ ୲ି୨ + ళ ࢚ ఴ ୀଵ ୀ Ɋ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + Ʉ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + ߨଵ ܲܤܫ௧ିଵ ୀ ୀ ϲϟΎΘϟϞϜθϟϰϠϋ(1)ΔϟΩΎόϤϠϟARDLΝΫϮϤϧΪϳΪΤΗ య ర ఱ ల + Ɂ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + ɉ୨ οܵܶ୲ି୨ + Ʌ୨ ο୲ି୨ + Ԃ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + ୀ ୀ ୀ ୀ + ߨଶ ܲܣܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨଷ ܲܫܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨସ ܵܶ௧ିଵ + ߨହ ܵܲ௧ିଵ + ߨ ܷܦܰܫ௧ିଵ + ߨ ܫܴܩܣ௧ିଵ )««««««««««««««(+ ߨ଼ ܱܲܯܫ௧ିଵ + ߝ௧ ΚϴΤΑˬϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭέΎΒΘΧϲϫ ARDLΔϴΠϬϨϤϟ ϰϟϭϷΓϮτΨϟϭ ˬΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϠϟ ΔΌρΎΒΘϤϟϢϴϘϟϭˬΔΌρΎΒΘϤϟϪϤϴϗϖϳήρϩήϴδϔΗϦϜϤϳϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϥ ΝΫϮϤϨϟϦϴΒϳΚϴΣ ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴοήϔϟέΎΒΘΧϰϠϋARDLΝΫΎϤϧϲϓPesaran and al (2001)ϝΎϘϓϭϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΰϜΗήϳ ܪ ߨ ଵ ൌ ߨଶ ൌ ߨଷ ൌ ߨସ ൌ ߨହ ൌ ߨ ൌ ߨ ൌ ߨ଼ ൌ ͲǤ ൜ ܪଵ ߨ ଵ ് Ͳǡ ߨଶ ് Ͳǡ ߨଷ ് Ͳǡ ߨସ ് Ͳǡ ߨହ ് Ͳǡ ߨ ് Ͳǡ ߨ ് Ͳǡ ߨ଼ ് ͲǤ ϡΪόΑϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓξϓήϧΎϨϧΈϓˬΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϠϟϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟϦϣήΒϛ F-statΔϤϴϗΖϧΎϛΫ· ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴΠϬϨϤϟϖϓϭέήϘϟΫΎΨΗϢΘϳϭˬ Wald test F-statisticsέΎΒΘΧϻΔϴΎμΣ·ϞϤθΗϭ ΪΤϟϦϴΑΎϣϊϘΗ FΔϴΎμΣϹΔΑϮδΤϤϟΔϤϴϘϟΖϧΎϛΫ·ΎϣϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϡΪόΑϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓϞΒϘϧΎϨϧΈϓˬΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϠϟϰϧΩϷΪΤϟϦϣϞϗ F-statΖϧΎϛΫ·ΎϣϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭ ϚϟΫϥϮϜϳϭϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϭήϴμϘϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΝΫϮϤϨϟΕΎϤϠόϣήϳΪϘΗΔϴϧΎΜϟΓϮτΨϟϞϤθΗϭέήϗϱΫΎΨΗϦϜϤϳϻάΪϨϋˬPesaran and al (2001)ϞΒϗϦϣΔΣήΘϘϤϟΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϠϟϰϧΩϷΪΤϟϭϰϠϋϷ ΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϣϦϴΑϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ Ϟγϼδϟ ΖϧΎϛϝΎΣϲϓΞΘϨΗΪϗϲΘϟΔϔΰϟ ΕήϳΪϘΘϟϱΩΎϔΗϭϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭΪϳΪΤΘϟ ΔϳέήϘΘγϻΔγέΩΔλΎΧϭΕήϴϐΘϤϠϟΔϴΎμΣϹκΎμΨϟΔγέΩϲϐΒϨϳΔϟΩΎόϤϟήϳΪϘΗϞΒϗ ϭ ΔϤϴϗϞϗϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋΕΩΪΣΪϘϓ ˬήϴΧ΄ΘϟΔΟέΪϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑ (Augmented Dickey Fuller Test)έΎΒΘΧΔτγϮΑΝΫϮϤϨϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΓΪΣϮϟέάΟέΎΒΘΧϢΗϪϴϠϋϭΓήϘΘδϣήϴϏήϳΪϘΘϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟ ΝΫϮϤϨϠϟΔϠϜθϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩκΨϠϳϝϭΪΠϟϭ max p = ίέϮηϭϚϴϳΎϛϱέΎϴόϤϟ PIB PIBA PIBI SP ST INDU AGRI I (1) I (0) I (1) I (1) I (1) I (1) I (1) ΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩϝϭΪΠϟ IMPO ΕήϴϐΘϤϟ I (1) ϞϣΎϜΘϟΔΟέΩ I ΔΟέΪϟϦϣΔϠϣΎϜΘϣϲϫΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϴϤΟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩΚϴΤΑ ˬΓΪΣϮϟέάΟέΎΒΘΧϝϼΧϦϣΔγέΪϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΔϴϨϣΰϟϞγϼδϟϞϣΎϜΗΔΟέΩ ϲϓϞΜϤΘϤϟϭ ARDLΔϴΠϬϨϣϖϴΒτΗρήηϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ ϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭήΒΘΨϧϑϮγI (0)ϯϮΘδϤϟϲϓΓήϘΘδϣϲϫϲΘϟ PIBA ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧΔϠδϠγΪϋΎϣˬ(1) ΩϭΪΤϟΞϬϨϣϝΎϤόΘγΎΑϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϗϼϋέΎΒΘΧ ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϣϲϫPesaran and al (2001)ϞΒϗϦϣΔΣήΘϘϤϟΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟΩϭΪΣϭF= 33.80485 ϲϫϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϴΎμΣ·ΔϤϴϗ ΩϭΪΤϟΕέΎΒΘΧ ϝϭΪΠϟ F-statistic = 33.80485 ΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟ ϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟ ϲϠϔδϟΪΤϟ ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎϳϮΘδϣ 2.89 1.92 10% 3.21 2.17 5% 3.51 2.43 2.5% 3.9 2.73 1% ϪϴϧίϮΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϮΑΔϠϳΪΒϟΔϴοήϔϟϞΒϘϧϭϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓξϓήϧϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬ %10ˬ%5ˬ%1 ΔϳϮϨόϣΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΔϤϴϘϠϟϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟϦϣήΒϛϲϫF-statϥ ϝϭΪΠϟοϮϳ (Schwarz Bayesian έΎϴόϣϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋARDLΔϴΠϬϨϤϟΎϘϓϭΔϗϼόϟϩάϫϢϟΎόϣήϳΪϘΘΑϡϮϘϧϑϮγˬϪΗΩΪΤϣϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϧϝΪόϣϦϴΑϞΟϷΔϠϳϮρΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑ ϞΟϷΔϠϳϮρ ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϤϟϞϳϮτϟϭήϴμϘϟϦϴϳΪϤϟϲϓήϳΪϘΘϟΞΎΘϧϞΜϣϷΝΫϮϤϨϟϮϫ 3ˬ4ˬ4ˬ4ˬ4ˬ3ˬˬ4 ΝΫϮϤϨϟϥϦϴΒΗϭˬΆρΎΒΘϟΕήΘϓΪϳΪΤΗϢΗCriterion) 3ˬ4ˬ4ˬ4ˬ4ˬ3ˬˬ4 ΔϋίϮϤϟ ΔϴϨϣΰϟ ΕϮΠϔϠϟ ϲΗάϟ έΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϝϭΪΠϟ Included observation: 41 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic P-v Short run: Dependent Variable: DPIB D(PIB(-1)) 0.731782 0.057848 12.650056 0.0002 D(PIB(-2)) 1.591100 0.067422 23.599101 0.0000 D(PIB(-3)) 0.721217 0.031615 22.812549 0.0000 D(PIBA) -0.245202 0.018478 -13.270116 0.0002 D(PIBA(-1)) 0.539075 0.021324 25.279739 0.0000 D(PIBA(-2)) 0.425587 0.015700 27.107559 0.0000 D(PIBI) 0.474540 0.017742 26.747212 0.0000 109 a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 D(PIBI(-1)) 0.116432 0.023387 4.978564 0.0076 D(PIBI(-2)) -0.161202 0.019479 -8.275572 0.0012 D(ST) -0.415509 0.253255 -1.640677 0.1762 D(ST(-1)) 2.365872 0.360030 6.571319 0.0028 D(ST(-2)) 0.628846 0.376467 1.670389 0.1702 D(ST(-3)) 2.315837 0.317306 7.298429 0.0019 D(SP) -3.476800 0.295503 -11.765686 0.0003 D(SP(-1)) -2.100121 0.253823 -8.273956 0.0012 D(SP(-2)) 3.417324 0.272395 12.545482 0.0002 D(SP(-3)) 2.965939 0.254217 11.666953 0.0003 D(INDU) 0.712644 0.042940 16.596237 0.0001 D(INDU(-1)) 0.337803 0.044879 7.526954 0.0017 D(INDU(-2)) 0.740018 0.045149 16.390403 0.0001 D(INDU(-3)) 1.380480 0.047951 28.789591 0.0000 D(AGRI) 3.287815 0.183766 17.891273 0.0001 D(AGRI(-1)) 2.770496 0.200157 13.841614 0.0002 D(AGRI(-2)) 2.831264 0.187322 15.114437 0.0001 D(AGRI(-3)) 6.597704 0.227001 29.064649 0.0000 D(IMPO) 0.345156 0.027093 12.739569 0.0002 D(IMPO(-1)) 0.118168 0.031130 3.795943 0.0192 D(IMPO(-2)) -0.292087 0.030323 -9.632664 0.0006 ECM (-1) -1.208690 0.040008 -30.211439 0.0000 Long-run: Dependent Variable: PIB PIBA -0.869084 0.263170 -3.302366 0.0299 PIBI 0.204306 0.233178 0.876181 0.4304 ST 1.082510 0.323232 3.349017 0.0286 SP -2.955807 0.768758 -3.844915 0.0184 INDUPIB 0.691793 0.216054 3.201939 0.0328 AGRIPIB 1.402213 0.554629 2.528201 0.0648 IMPO -0.517931 0.137176 -3.775659 0.0195 C -39.477410 13.557374 -2.911877 0.0436 R2 = 0.9967; adjusted R2 = 0.9677; SE = 0.488485; SSR = 0.954469 (F-Stat)= 0.001719; DW=2.816675F-Stat = 34.29353; prob ϞϣΎόϣΎϤϨϴΑΎϴΎμΣ·ϱϮϨόϤϟϭΓέΎηϹΐϟΎγέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟϊΟέάϫϭΓήδϔϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϝΪόϣϦϴΑϞΟϷΓήϴμϗΔϴϜϴϣΎϨϳΩΔϗϼϋϙΎϨϫϥ΄Α΄τΨϟϴΤμΗήϳΪϘΗΞΎΘϧϦϣϦϴΒΘϳ ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϯΪϤϟΔϠϳϮρϪϴϧίϮΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϢϋΪΗέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟΔΒϟΎδϟΓέΎηϹˬΎπϳϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϥίϮΘϟϊοϭϰϟ·ΓΩϮόϟΔϋήγβϴϘΗϭ -1.20 ϱϭΎδϤϟ΄τΨϟϴΤμΗ ΎϬϟϡΎΨϟϲϠΧΪϟΞΗΎϨϟϦϣΔΣϼϔϟΔμΣ %5ΔΟέΩΪϨϋΎϴΎμΣ·ΔϳϮϨόϣΎϬϟΖΑΎΜϟΎϬϴϓΎϤΑϯήΧϷΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϴϤΟˬΎϴΎμΣ·ϱϮϨόϤϟήϴϏϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϟϞϣΎόϣΪϋΎϣˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΕΎϤϠόϤϟ R2 = 0.97 ϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣήϴΒϛέΪϗΡήθΗϭΔϳήϴδϔΗΓέΪϗΎϬϟΝΫϮϤϨϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟϥΎϤϛ %7ΪϨϋΔϴΎμΣ·ΔϳϮϨόϣ ΝΫϮϤϨϟέήϘΘγέΎΒΘΧ ωϮϤΠϤϟ έΎΒΘΧ ΎϤϫϭ Brown, Durbin, and Evans (1975) ϞΒϗϦϣΎϤϬΣήΘϗϢΗϦϳέΎΒΘΧϝϼΧϦϣϢΘΗϑϮγϞϳϮτϟϭ ήϴμϘϟ ϦϴϠΟϷ ΕϼϣΎόϤϟ ϲϠϜϴϬϟ έήϘΘγϻ έΎΒΘΧ CUSUM of Squares ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭ CUSUM ΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ 110 a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 -2 0.0 -4 -0.4 2011 2012 CUSUM of Squares 2013 2014 -6 2011 5% Significance 2012 CUSUM 2013 2014 5% Significance ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟϦϣϞϛέΎΒΘΧϻϲϧΎϴΒϟϞϜθϟ1ϞϜθϟ ΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΩϭΪΤϟϞΧΩ CUSUM of Squares ϭ CUSUM ϦϳέΎΒΘΧϼϟϲϧΎϴΒϟϢγήϟωϮϗϮϟήψϧˬΔγέΪϟΓήΘϓϝϼΧΎϴϠϜϴϫΓήϘΘδϣϲϫΝΫϮϤϨϠϟ ΓέΪϘϤϟ ΕϼϣΎόϤϟ ϥ 1ϞϜθϟϦϣπΘϳ %5ΔϳϮϨόϣϯϮΘδϣ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟήΛ Ϧϣ ΪϳΪόϟΐδΣ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϰϠϋϢϋΪϟήϴΛ΄ΗϦϴΑϥΎϴΣϷϦϣήϴΜϛϲϓήΛϷϑϼΘΧφΣϼϳΚϴΣ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧήϴδϔΗϝϭΎΤϳΔγέΪϟϦϣϲϧΎΜϟΝΫϮϤϨϟ ϮϫϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟΚϴΣΝΫϮϤϨϟάϫήϳΪϘΗϰϟ·ΎϧΩΎϗΎϣϮϫϭˬϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϟ·ϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϻϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϦϣϱβϛΎόϤϟϩΎΠΗϻϲϓΔϴΒΒδϟϥϮϜΗϥΔϴϧΎϜϣ·ϰϟ·ΔϓΎο·ˬΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟ ΝΫϮϤϨϟήϳΪϘΗϦϜϤϳϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬI (1)ϦϣήΒϛΔΟέΩϲϓΔϠϣΎϜΘϣΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣΎϳΪΟϮϳϻϪϧΎϘΑΎγΎϧήηΪϗϭϯήΧϷΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟϊϣϞϘΘδϣήϴϐΘϣϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭΝΫϮϤϨϟάϫϲϓϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟ ϲϠϳΎϤϛΝΫϮϤϨϟΎΑιΎΨϟARDLΝΫϮϤϧΐΘϜϳϭARDLΔϘϳήρΔτγϮΑ భ మ య ర ఱ ల ǻࡼࡵ Ⱦ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + ɀ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + Ɂ୨ οܲି୲ܫܤܫ୨ + ɉ୨ ο୲ି୨ + Ʌ୨ ο୲ି୨ + Ԃ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + ࢚ ൌ ܽ ళ ୀଵ ୀ ୀ ୀ ୀ ୀ Ɋ୨ ο ୲ି୨ + ߨଵ ܲܣܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨଶ ܲܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨଷ ܲܫܤܫ௧ିଵ + ߨସ ܵܶ௧ିଵ + ߨହ ܵܲ௧ିଵ + ߨ ܫܴܩܣ௧ିଵ + ߨ ܱܲܯܫ௧ିଵ + ߝ௧ ୀ )««««««««««««««««««««««««««««««( ΩϭΪΤϟΞϬϨϣϝΎϤόΘγΎΑϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϗϼϋέΎΒΘΧ ΔϴϟΎΘϟΔϴοήϔϟέΎΒΘΧϝϼΧϦϣϙήΘθϣϞϣΎϜΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭΪϳΪΤΗϢΘϳ ሼሁሺ̴ܪሺͲሻ ͳ̴ߨ ൌ ߨ̴ʹ ൌ ߨ̴͵ ൌ ߨ̴Ͷ ൌ ߨ̴ͷ ൌ ߨ̴ ൌ ߨ̴ ൌ ͲǤ ̷Ͳ ് ͳ̴ߨ ͳ̴ܪǡ ߨ̴ʹ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴͵ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴Ͷ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴ͷ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴ ് Ͳǡ ߨ̴ ് ͲǤ ሻᇺ ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϣPesaran and al (2001)ϞΒϗϦϣΔΣήΘϘϤϟΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟΩϭΪΣϭF= 10.50472 ϲϫϙήΘθϤϟϞϣΎϜΘϟΔϴΎμΣ·ΔϤϴϗ ΩϭΪΤϟΕέΎΒΘΧϝϭΪΠϟ F-statistic = 10.50472 ΔΟήΤϟϢϴϘϟ ϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟ ϲϠϔδϟΪΤϟ ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎϳϮΘδϣ 2.94 1.99 10% 3.28 2.27 5% 3.61 2.55 2.5% 3.99 2.88 1% ΔϠϳϮρϪϴϧίϮΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϮΑΔϠϳΪΒϟΔϴοήϔϟϞΒϘϧϭϡΪόϟΔϴοήϓξϓήϧϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬ %10ˬ%5ˬ%1 ΔϳϮϨόϣΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΔϤϴϘϠϟϱϮϠόϟΪΤϟϦϣήΒϛϲϫF-statϥϝϭΪΠϟοϮϳ (Schwarz Bayesian Criterion)έΎϴόϣϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋARDLΔϴΠϬϨϤϟΎϘϓϭΔϗϼόϟϩάϫϢϟΎόϣήϳΪϘΘΑϡϮϘϧϑϮγˬϪΗΩΪΤϣϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϦϴΑϞΟϷΔϠϳϮρΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϦϣΪϛ΄ΘϟΪόΑϞΟϷ ϲϟΎΘϟϝϭΪΠϟϲϓΔΤοϮϣϲϫϞϳϮτϟϭήϴμϘϟϦϴϳΪϤϟϲϓήϳΪϘΘϟΞΎΘϧϞΜϣϷΝΫϮϤϨϟϮϫ 4ˬ2ˬ1ˬ4ˬ0ˬˬ4 ΝΫϮϤϨϟϥϦϴΒΗϭˬΆρΎΒΘϟΕήΘϓΪϳΪΤΗϢΗ 111 a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 4ˬ2ˬ1ˬ4ˬ0ˬ2ˬ4 ΔϋίϮϤϟ ΔϴϨϣΰϟ ΕϮΠϔϠϟ ϲΗάϟ έΪΤϧϻΝΫϮϤϧήϳΪϘΗϝϭΪΠϟ Included observation: 41 after adjustments Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic P-v Short run: Dependent Variable: DPIBA Variable D(PIBA(-1)) 0.551857 0.111450 4.951594 0.0001 D(PIBA(-2)) 0.216273 0.077912 2.775871 0.0129 D(PIBA(-3)) -0.140532 0.051285 -2.740195 0.0140 D(PIB) -0.391169 0.260985 -1.498818 0.1523 D(PIB(-1)) -1.139565 0.184906 -6.162957 0.0000 D(PIBI) 0.342993 0.147435 2.326409 0.0326 D(ST) 3.976921 2.154646 1.845743 0.0824 D(ST(-1)) 6.002797 2.786817 2.153998 0.0459 D(ST(-2)) 6.722267 3.054989 2.200423 0.0419 D(ST(-3)) 14.997407 2.683903 5.587909 0.0000 D(SP) -6.847039 1.903110 -3.597815 0.0022 D(AGRI) 6.803805 0.474937 14.325689 0.0000 D(AGRI(-1)) -5.041384 0.457489 -11.019686 0.0000 D(IMPO) 0.134732 0.169843 0.793272 0.4386 D(IMPO(-1)) 0.496335 0.196864 2.521208 0.0220 D(IMPO(-2)) 1.085808 0.199473 5.443391 0.0000 D(IMPO(-3)) 0.569681 0.203683 2.796899 0.0124 ECM(-1) -1.617409 0.152261 -10.622595 0.0000 Long-run: Dependent Variable: PIBA PIB 1.398793 0.450206 3.107003 0.0064 PIBI 0.157221 0.183100 0.858663 0.4025 ST 1.227110 0.382097 3.211515 0.0051 SP 0.549227 1.338865 0.410218 0.6868 AGRIPIB 3.636387 0.805496 4.514471 0.0003 IMPO -0.662594 0.191315 -3.463363 0.0030 C -35.094494 11.673313 -3.006387 0.0079 R2 = 0.9546; adjusted R2 = 0.8933; SE = 3.435213; SSR = 200.6117 F-Stat = 15.56756; prob(F-Stat)= 0.0000; DW=2.580117 ϦϜϤϳϱάϟΎϴΎμΣ·ϱϮϨόϤϟϭΓέΎηϹΐϟΎγέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟϊΟέάϫϭΓήδϔϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϝΪόϣϦϴΑϞΟϷΓήϴμϗΔϴϜϴϣΎϨϳΩΔϗϼϋϙΎϨϫϥ΄Α΄τΨϟϴΤμΗήϳΪϘΗΞΎΘϧϦϣϦϴΒΘϳ ϦϜϤϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϝΪόϣϦϣϱ ϱϭΎδϤϟ΄τΨϟϴΤμΗϞϣΎόϣΎϤϨϴΑϯήΧϷΔϴϨϣίΓήΘϓϦϣΎϬΤϴΤμΗϦϜϤϳϲΘϟϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟϲϓϥίϮΘϟϝϼΘΧΔΒδϧβϴϘϳϪϧϰϠϋϩήϴδϔΗ ΕήϴϐΘϤϟϦϴΑϯΪϤϟΔϠϳϮρϪϴϧίϮΗΔϗϼϋΩϮΟϭϢϋΪΗέΪϘϤϟ΄τΨϠϟΔΒϟΎδϟΓέΎηϹˬΎπϳϯήΧϷΓήΘϓϦϣΎϬΤϴΤμΗ ϥΎϤϛ ˬˬ ΔϳϮϨόϤϟΕΎΟέΩϒϠΘΨϣΪϨϋ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϢϋΩϭϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϟΪϋΎϣ ΖΑΎΜϟϭΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟΐϠϏϷϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΔϴΎμΣϹΔϳϮϨόϤϟϚϟάϛϩϼϋϝϭΪΠϟοϮϳ R2 = 0.89 ϊΑΎΘϟήϴϐΘϤϟϦϣήϴΒϛέΪϗΡήθΗϭΔϳήϴδϔΗΓέΪϗΎϬϟΝΫϮϤϨϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟΔϠϘΘδϤϟΕήϴϐΘϤϟ ΝΫϮϤϨϟέήϘΘγέΎΒΘΧ CUSUM ΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟ έΎΒΘΧϻϲϧΎϴΒϟϢγήϟωϮϗϮϟήψϧˬήϴμϘϟϯΪϤϟϭϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΞΎΘϨϟϦϴΑΝΫϮϤϨϟ ϲϓΎϣΎΠδϧϭΎϴϠϜϴϫέήϘΘγϙΎϨϫ ϥ 2ϞϜθϟϦϣπΘϳ %5 ΔϳϮϨόϣϯϮΘδϣΪϨϋΔΟήΤϟΩϭΪΤϟϞΧΩ CUSUM of Squares ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭ 112 a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 1.6 12 1.2 0.8 0.4 -4 0.0 -8 -12 -0.4 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 CUSUM of Squares 2008 2010 5% Significance 2012 2014 1998 2000 2002 2004 CUSUM 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 5% Significance ΓΩϭΎόϤϟ ϲϗϮΒϟ ΕΎόΑήϤϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟέΎΒΘΧϭΓΩϭΎόϤϟϲϗϮΒϠϟ ϲϤϛήΘϟ ωϮϤΠϤϟϦϣϞϛέΎΒΘΧϻϲϧΎϴΒϟϞϜθϟ2ϞϜθϟ ΔγέΪϟΞΎΘϧ ϲϫϭϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓάϫϭ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ ϰϠϋΎΒϠγϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ· ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϺϟϪΟϮϤϟϢϋΪϟ ϥϲϧΎΜϟϭϝϭϷϦϴΟΫϮϤϨϟήϳΪϘΗϝϼΧϦϣϦϴΒΘϳ ΎΑΎΠϳ·ήΛΆϳήϣϷάϫϭΕϼΧΪϤϟΓΩΎϳίϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟϦϋΞΗΎϨϟέΎϤΜΘγϻΓΩΎϳΰΑήδϔϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϢϋΪϟϲΑΎΠϳϹήϴΛ΄ΘϟϥΚϴΣˬΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟϦϣΪϳΪόϟϊϣϖϓϮΘΗΔΠϴΘϧ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϰϠϋ ΎγΎγήϤΗΔϴϣΎϨϟϥΪϠΒϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϲϓΔΣϼϔϟΔϤϫΎδϤϓˬΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΔϣΪΨΘδϤϟΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧΈΑςΒΗήϳΪϘϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭΝΎΘϧϹϢϋΪϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟΎϣ ΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϥΎπϳφΣϼϳΎϤϛϥΪϠΒϟϩάϫϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟ ΔϴϠϤϋέήϤΘγϭ ˯ΪΒϟϱέϭήοήϣΔΣϼϔϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϦδΤΗϥήΒΘόϳϦϣϙΎϨϫϞΑˬΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϲϓϦδΤΘϟΎΑ ϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγϤδΗΪϗ ΚϴΤΑΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϰϠϋήϴΧϷάϬϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟΎΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϟϭΪϟϢϋΪϟϲΒϠδϟ ήΛϷςΑέϦϜϤϳϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭˬϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϠϟΪΟΔγΎδΣΔϴΣϼϔϟ ϢϋΪϟΏΎϴϏΔϟΎΣϊϣΔϧέΎϘϣωΎτϘϟάϫϲϓ˯ΎϘΒϟΎΑΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋϦϣϰϠϋϢΠΤϟ ϮϤϨϟϟΎλήϴϏϲϓϮϫΔϴΟΎΘϧϹξϔΨϨϣωΎτϗϮΤϧϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϟΔϐϴλϲϓΔϴϣϮϤόϟΕέΎϤΜΘγϻϪϴΟϮΗϲϟΎΘϟΎΑˬΔπϔΨϨϤϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹωΎτϗϮϫϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϥήΒΘόϳϦϣϙΎϨϫϚϟάϛ ΦϟϦϳϮϜΘϟϭΚΤΒϟϭˬΔϴΘΤΘϟΔϴϨΒϟΕΎϘϔϧ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭΝΎΘϧϹΎΑΓήηΎΒϤϟΎϬΘϗϼϋϦϋήψϨϟξϐΑΔϣΎόϟϟΎμϤϟΕΫΕΎϘϔϨϟϞϜηϲϓϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟϕΎϔϧϹϭϢϋΪϟϥΎϓϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻ ϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟΔϳΩήϔϟϟΎμϤϟϰϠϋήμΘϘϤϟϢϋΪϟϦϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϮϤϨϟϰΘΣϞπϓϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΗήΜϛϥϮϜΗΪϗ ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟΎϓ ˬϦϴϋΎτϘϟ ϲϠϛϲϓΔϴΟΎΘϧϹϑϼΘΧϝϼΧϦϣ ϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϠϟϲΑΎΠϳϹϭϲΣϼϔϟ ΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϨϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟήϴδϔΗ ΎπϳϦϜϤϳϭ ΪϗϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϠϟϲϠόϔϟϙήΤϤϟϭΔόϔΗήϤϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹωΎτϗϮϫϲϋΎϨμϟωΎτϘϟΎϣˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϟΎλϲϓϥϮϜϳϻΪϗΔϴΟΎΘϧϹξϔΨϨϣωΎτϗϲϓϊγϮΘϟϲϟΎΘϟΎΑϭΔπϔΨϨϤϟΔϴΟΎΘϧϹωΎτϗϮϫ Gylfason, T (2000)ϊϳήϟϦϋήϤΘδϤϟΚΤΒϟϞόϔΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟΕϻΪόϣνΎϔΨϧϰϟ·ϕΎτϨϟΔόγϮϟΔϋέΰϟϭΩέϮϤϟΓήϓϭϱΩΆΗ ϲϓΓΩΎϳίϪϠΑΎϘϳϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϯϮΘδϣϰϠϋϞλΎΤϟϮϤϨϟΎϓˬΓήϴΧϷΕϮϨδϟϲϓΔλΎΧΓήϴΒϜϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕΎϘϔϨϟ ϦϋΎγΎγΞΗΎϧ ΎϳϮϨγ% ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϩΪϬηϱάϟϮϤϨϟΎϓˬήΰΠϟΔϟΎΤϟΔΒδϨϟΎΑ ΎόϣϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϞϣϮόϟΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϰϠϋΎΒϠγβϜόϨϳΪϗϱάϟήϣϷˬΝΎΘϧϹΔϔϠϜΗ ϰϠϋϢΠΣϥήΒΘόΗϲΘϟϭΔϴΒϳήΠΘϟϭΔϳήψϨϟΕΎγέΪϟΪϳΪϋϊϣϖϓϮΘϳΎϣϮϫϭˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎΒϠγήΛΆΗΔϴάϐϟΩϮϤϟϦϣΕΩέϮϟϥΔψΣϼϣΎπϳϦϜϤϳϭ ϊϠδϟΕΩέϭΎϣˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓΝΎΘϧϹϲϓΎϬΘϤϫΎδϣϞόϔΑϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΑΎΠϳ·ήϴΛ΄ΗΎϬϟΝΎΘϧϹϞϣϮϋΕΩέϭϥέΎΒΘϋϻϦϴόΑάΧϷϊϣˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎΒϠγβϜόϨϳΕΩέϮϟϦϣ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΒϠγήΛΎϬϟϥϮϜϳΎϣΎΒϟΎϐϓΔϴάϐϟϊϠδϟΕΩέϭέήϏϰϠϋϙϼϬΘγϼϟΔϬΟϮϤϟ ΔλϼΨϟ ωΎτϘϟϢϋΪϟΔμμΨϤϟώϟΎΒϤϟϢΠΣϭϞΎϬϟϲϣϮϜΤϟϕΎϔϧϹϢΠΤϟήψϧˬϭϦϴΑΎϣΓήΘϔϟϲϓήΰΠϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲϣϮϜΤϟϢϋΪϟήΛΪϳΪΤΗΔγέΪϟϑΪϫϥΎϛ ΔγέΪϟΓήΘϓϝϼΧϦϴΣϼϔϠϟΓήηΎΒϤϟήϴϐϟϭΓήηΎΒϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϞϤθΗϲΘϟϭέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϬΟϮϤϟΔϴϟΎϤϟΕΎμμΨϤϟΕίϭΎΠΗΪϗϭϲΣϼϔϟ ΝΎΘϧϹΎΑϪΘϗϼϋϦϋήψϨϟξϐΑϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϥϦϴΣϲϓˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϦϴΠΘϨϤϠϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϺϟήηΎΒϤϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴδϟϲΒϠγήϴΛ΄ΗΩϮΟϭΔγέΪϟΞΎΘϧΖϨϴΑΪϗϭ ϟΎμϤϟΕΫΕΎϘϔϨϟϥήΒΘόϳϱάϟϱήψϨϟϞϴϠΤΘϟΎΑςΒΗήΗ ΔΠϴΘϨϟϩάϫϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋΎϴΑΎΠϳ· ϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟϭϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϢϋΩήΛϮϳ ˬϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΎΑΎΠϳ· ήΛΆϳϦϴΠΘϨϤϟϭ ϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϲϓϢϫΎδΗϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋήϴΛ΄ΗήΜϛΔϣΎόϟ ϲϓϭ ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϞϗήόϳΪϗϊγϭϯΪϣϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟρΎθϨϟϲϓϊγϮΘϟΎΑήδϔϳΪϗΎϣϮϫϭˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϨϟϲΒϠγήϴΛ΄ΗΩϮΟϭϰϟ·ϚϟάϛήϳΪϘΘϟΞΎΘϧΕέΎηϭ ΝΎΘϧϹ ϯϮΘδϣϰϠϋϞλΎΤϟϮϤϨϟΎϓˬΓήϴΧϷ ΓήθόϟΕϮϨδϟϲϓΔλΎΧϪϟΖϬΟϭϲΘϟΓήϴΒϜϟΔϴϣϮϜΤϟΕΎϘϔϨϠϟΔΠϴΘϧϥΎϛϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϩΪϬηϱάϟϮϤϨϟϥϰϟ·ΔΠϴΘϨϟϩάϫήϴθΗΪϗˬήΰΠϟ ΔϟΎΣ a r a b e c o n o m i c a n d b u s i n e s s j o u r n a l 11 ( ) 105 – 114 113 ϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϭϲΣϼϔϟϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϠϟϲΒϠγήϴΛ΄ΗΩϮΟϭϰϟ·ΎπϳΔγέΪϟήϴθΗϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϭϞϣϮόϟΔϴΟΎΘϧ·ϰϠϋΎΒϠγβϜόϧϱάϟήϣϷˬΝΎΘϧϹΔϔϠϜΗϲϓΓΩΎϳίϪϠΑΎϗϲΣϼϔϟ ΩϮΟϭϰϟ·ΔγέΪϟΖϠλϮΗˬϞΑΎϘϤϟϲϓϭϱήΰΠϟΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϧϰϠϋΔϣΎϋΕΩέϮϟϭΔϴάϐϟΕΩέϮϟϪΒόϠΗϱάϟϲΒϠδϟήϴΛ΄ΘϟίήΒϳΎϣϮϫϭˬ ϢϋΪϟΞϣήΑΪόΑϭϞΒϗΎϳϮϨγέϻϭΩέΎϴϠϣϲϟϮΣ Ύόϣ νέΎόΘΗϻΔϴγΎϴϘϟΔγέΪϟΞΎΘϧϥϰϟ·ΓέΎηϹΐΠϳϭϙϼϬΘγϻϭΝΎΘϧϹςΑϭέϖϳήρϦϋΔλΎΧϲϋΎϨμϟϮϤϨϠϟϢϬϤϟέϭΪϟϦϴΒϳΎϣϮϫϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟήϴϏΩΎμΘϗϼϟϲΑΎΠϳ·ήϴΛ΄Η ϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϬΟϮϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϦϴΑΔϗϼόϟΔόϴΒρΪϳΪΤΗΖϟϭΎΣϲΘϟΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟΔϴΒϟΎϏϊϣ ϦϤπϳϻϭϢϋΪϟΔϴϘϠΘϤϟΕΎϋΎτϘϟΔϴϤϨΗϦϣϦϜϤϳϻΪΣϭωΎτϗΕΪΎϋϦϣϢϋΪϟϭΕΎϧΎϋϹϞϳϮϤΗϰϠϋΰϛήϳϱάϟϭήΰΠϟΔϟΎΣϲϓΎϤϛϲόϳήϟΩΎμΘϗϻϥϮϫϪϴϠϋΪϴϛ΄ΘϟϦϤϜϳΎϣϭ ΕϻΪόϣ ΕΩίϞΑ ˬϢϋΪϟΓήΘϓϝϮρΔϴάϐϟΩϮϤϟΕΩέϭξϴϔΨΗϦϣϦϜϤΗϢϟΞΎΘϨϟϥΈϓ ˬϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϟϢϋΪϟΓήϴΒϜϟΔϴϟΎϤϟΕΎμμΨϤϟ ϞϛϢϏέϭ ΔϤΩϭΔόϔΗήϣϮϤϧΕϻΪόϣϥΎϴΣϷΐϟΎϏϲϓ ΕΎϋΎτϘϟϞϜϟΔϳέΎϤΜΘγϹΕΎμμΨϤϟΓΩΎϳίϰϠϋΪϤΘόΗΔϴϣϮϤϋΕΎγΎϴγ ήϳϮτΗϚϟάϛϭϲϠϜϟϢϋΪϟΔγΎϴγϲϓΎϳήϫϮΟϼϳΪόΗΐϠτΘϳΎϤϣˬΔόϗϮΘϣήϴϏΓέϮμΑΔϴάϐϟΩϮϤϟΩήϴΘγ ΔϴδϴήϟΔϠϜθϤϟϥήϴϏˬϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋϲΒϠδϟϭϲΣϼϔϟΝΎΘϧϹϮϤϧϰϠϋϲΣϼϔϟϢϋΪϠϟϲΑΎΠϳϹήϴΛ΄ΘϟΪϳΪΤΗϦϣϦϜϤΗΎϬϴϟ·ϞλϮΘϤϟΔΠϴΘϨϟϥΈϓˬΔϘΑΎδϟΕΎγέΪϟϰϠϋΩΎϤΘϋϭ ϻΪϗΎϣϮϫϭϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋωϮϧϞϛήΛΪϳΪΤΗϭϲΣϼϔϟωΎτϘϠϟΔϬΟϮϤϟΕΎϧΎϋϹϭϢϋΪϟωϮϧϦϣωϮϧϞϛΔγέΩΐΠϳϚϟάϟϭˬϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϲϓϱΩΎμΘϗϻϮϤϨϟϰϠϋΕήϴΛ΄ΘϟΪϳΪΤΗϲϓϦϤϜΗ ΔϤϼϣΔϴγΎϴϗΝΫΎϤϧήϳϮτΗΎϬόϣέάόΘϳϞϳϮτϟϯΪϤϟϰϠϋΔϘϴϗΩΔϴΎμΣ·ϞγϼγΏΎϴϏϞόϔΑΔϴϣΎϨϟϥΪϠΒϟϲϓΓΩΎϋήϓϮΘϳ REFERENCES Abboushi, S (2007) Agriculture Subsidies: What Are They and Who Receives Them?In Competition Forum, American Society for Competitiveness, Vol.5, p.5 Armas, E B., Camilo, G O., & Blanca, M D (2010) Agriculture public spending and growth: the example of Indonesia 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