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KHOA HOC CONG NGHE DANH GIA TINH BEN V U N G DOfI BOT HUYEN PHU MY, TINH BINH DINH TRONG DIEU KIEN BIEN DOI KHI HAU ThS Vd Thanh Tinh, TS Che Dinh Ly Viin Mdi trudng vd Tdi Nguyen PGS TS Luffng Van Th[.]
KHOA HOC CONG NGHE DANH GIA TINH BEN V U N G DOfI BOT HUYEN PHU MY, TINH BINH DINH TRONG DIEU KIEN BIEN DOI KHI HAU ThS Vd Thanh Tinh, TS Che Dinh Ly Viin Mdi trudng vd Tdi Nguyen PGS.TS Luffng Van Thanh Viin Ky thudt Biin Tom tat: Cdc tde gid da dua trin diiu kiin dia hinh, dia mgo vd thuy hdi vdn khu vice ddi bd huy$n Phii My de xdy dimg bo chi thi vdi chu di, 38 tiiu chi vd bgc bin vimg phuc vu cdng tde ddnh gid tinh bin vOng viing ddi bd cd tinh tdi tde ddng cua biin ddi hgu Trong nghien cuu dp dung phuang phdp phdn tich tiin trinh cdp bdc (AHP) di thiit lap, tap hap sd cho timg chd de vd timg chi thi Sau tinh todn kit qud ddnh gid cho timg chi thi theo hdm thdnh vien, se cd duac kit qud ddnh gid tdng thi cho todn bd ddi bd Tic cho thdy mite bin vung cua ddi bd huy$n Phit My d miic trung binh Summary: Based on the topographic, morphological and hydrological characteristics in Phu My coastal zone, the authors have studied and buih the sustainable indicators for the factors involved in the assessment with themes and 38 indicators as well as sustainable levels (5 levels) in order to assess the sustainable conditions of coastal zone including the effects of climate changes The authors have also proposed to apply the method of analysis hierarchy process (AHP) to establish a set of weights for each subject and indicator After calculating the assessment results for each indicator by the membership function, we have been the overall evaluation results for the entire coastal zone Through the implementation of these methods shows that the evaluation results showed that the level of sustainability of coastal Phu My district is average Key words: tinh bin vitng, ddi bd, bien ddi hdu, huyin Phu My DAT VAN DE Phil Mj? la huydn ven bien eiia tinh Binh Dinh vdi dipn tieh 550 km^ ddn sd khoang 170.000 ngudi Khu vyc ddi bd Phu My cd vai trd quan trpng qud trinh phat trien kinh te-xa hdi , ^ , A «^ -.i /*i eua huyen voi xa ven men va 02 dam (dam p.1 / - • • ' * * -r • A\ T• 1,1, • De Gi vd dam Tra ) Tdng sdn lupng khai thac va nudi trdng thiiy san nhiing nam gdn day diu tdng nhanh (Hinh 1) rieng nam 2011 dat 43.400 tan, dd, sdn lupng khai NguM phin bi^n: PGS.TS VO Thj Thanh Hu-ffng NgSynh§n bii: 02/7/2013-Ngiy thong qua phan bifin: 01/8/2013 - Ng^y duy?t dSng: 03/9/2013 thdc chigm 94%, sdn lupng nudi trdng chiem 6% Trong nhiing thap nien gdn ddy hoat ddng khai thac, ddnh bat qud mire thuy hai sdn vimg ven bd va phdt trien nudi trdng thuy san d at pha va quy hoaeh, gdy d nhiem mdi trudng ,, ^ *s ' ' • • u i • *- *-• lam thay doi he tu nhien va anh huong den den ^ i • u ^ ~ L - *i j11 ^°^S I^iih te-xa hpi eua cpng dong dan cu khu vyc ven bidn Viee nghien ciiu tim cac gidi phap khoa hpc ky thuat dg dam bdo sy phdt trign ben viing cho ITnh vye khai thac va nudi trdng thuy hdi san vung ven bd, ddng thdi xay dung dupe cdc tieu chi danh gia tinh bdn vGng phuc vy cdng tac quan ly gidm sdt cho ede hogt ddng khai thdc vd quy hoach nudi trdng thiiy TAP CHl KHOA HQC VA C O N G N G H $ T H O Y LOI SO 17 - 2013 19 KHOA HOC hai sdn cua tinh Binh Djnh Id rdt quan trpng vd Phil My di tinh toan xae dinh eae chi thj, danh cdp thiit Thi diim lua ehpn khu vyc ddi bd gia tinh ben vung Ty dong 2009 Udc 2010 I Lam nghiep D Thtiy sdn • Ndng nghiep Hinh Gid tri sdn xudt Ndng, Ldm, Thuy san nnung ndm gdn ddy Ngudn: Cue Thdng ke Binh Binh PHU'OfNG PHAP NGHIEN ClTU Sv dung phirong phap tien trinh phan tich cap bae (Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) tien hanh fheo birdc: (i) Xdy dun^ cdy cdp bgc de ddnh gid theo bd nguyin tac vd tieu chi, (ii) Xdy dung sd ddnh gid theo phuang phdp AHP (iii) Tinh diim ddnh gid trung blnh cua cdc bin lien quan tinh diim tieu chi vd tinh diim nguyen tde vd tinh diim bin viing cho ddi tuang duac ddnh gid vd (iv) Thuyit minh ddnh gid chi tiit, nhgn xet vd dua gidi phdp khac phgc cdc tiiu chi cd diim ddnh gid thdp Nghign ciiu bdi bdo sir dung phuong phap ma tran ciia thuft toan md de giai bai toan £(fa chon cdc thdng s6 vd ma trgn (1) Thiit lap ma trdn U: (2) XSy dung chuin danh gia ma triin V ={V1, V2, V3, V4, V5} = {khong b6n vOng, kem bjn vfing, b6n vimg trung binh, kha bto vfing, bSn vfing} (3) Thife lap tap hop s6 cua m6i yju t6 tap hgp: UA = (Ai i2 Ai) A,>0.'^A,=l 1-1 Tap hgp sd cua ' ' / ' ' ~ I'-', A, = ( a i , , 6) jj a„) n a, >0, V n , =1 i-i , n la so chi thi khac CO mot chu dt (4) Danh gia tfing yia t6 rieng re theo thuat toan ma chu de 2, chu dS 3, chu ih 4, chu d6 5, chu dj 6} Moi chu di (Ui) bao g5m tap hop ySu t6 Ma tran danh gia Ri = (rOnxm co thS tinh thli cap duge dS thuc hien danh gii mo timg ySu t6 rieng re tap hgp U duac phdn bSc theo ^/=kl-«,2iti„}i = l2. -6 ^ cac chu de Ui Trong Rij (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) la so chi thi co ban khac co trcng mot dien dat miic vien ciia chii di j d6i nhom chil dh vai "bae danh gia" Vi Va ma tran cdc lop tilp 20 T*P CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHE T H C Y LOI SO 17 - 2013 i: theo cd the tinh dupc ciing phuang phdp (5) Kit qua danh gia todn dien theo thudttodnmd KHOA HOC CONG NGHE Xay dung ma trfa cac yea to tbam gia ttnh toan: Vecta ddnh gid toan dien eua cdc ehi sd timg ehi De thiet ke ma trdn ve bd ehi thi ddnh gid tinh bdn vung ddi bd, tac gia ehpn lpc va dp dung thi hd thdng dupe tinh theo cdng thiie: mdt sd bd chi thi ddnh gid tinh bdn viing tren the gidi va Viet Nam, gdm ed: Bang chi thi danh gia tinh bdn viing ve mdi trudng ndm Ma trdn ddnh gid todn dien md toan bp 2000, 2005 cua Hdi ddng Phat triin bin viing he thdng chi sd danh gia U theo timg nhdm Lien Hap Qudc (UN/CSD) ve tdi nguydn, mdi chudh Ui Id: R = (Bl, B2, B6) truong, sinh thai, the che, xa hpi, ket hpp Cdc vector ddnh gid todn dien he thdng bd chi thi ddnh gid tinh ben vfing ve tdi nguygn va mdi trudng d Viet Nam (ESIVN) (Bp Tdi ehi sd cdp bgc Ui la: nguygn vd Mdi trudng 2008) vd mpt sd bd chi B = A*R = (bl,b2, ,bm) thi danh gia tinh ben virng eiia Tiep Khde, Trung Qude Kit qua ddnh gid sau cimg Id: T = V * B"' Bdng I Bd chi thi ddnh gid tinh bin vimg ddi bd huyen Phii My CHUDE Phat triln KT-XH gSn v6i vai tro ng^nh tliijy sin Dan cu, y te, giao dye Sinii ho9t, van hoa khu vyc dai 1)6 Moi tmong doi bo CHi THI K* HIEU BON V) TiNH Nghin dong Ty ddng S6 LIf u TH6NG KE 3340,0 763,0 38,0 267,4 487,2 3104,0 39900,0 1.1 Thu nhSp binh quan dau ngirdi/ thang 1.2.Von san xuSt kinh doanh ctia cac doanh nghiep 1.3.Til$ diu tir GDP ! Gia trj skn xuat cong nghiep 1.5 Gia trj san xu§t nganh nong nghiep 1.6 San luong thCiy san nuoi trdng 1.7 Sin luQUg khai thae ca bien KTl KT2 KT3 KT4 KT5 KT6 KT7 2.1 Ty le xa, phirong co bae sJ 2.2 Ty 1? hpc sinh tot nghiep THPT 2.3 M^ dan s& XHl XH2 XH3 2.4 Ty le gia tang dan so 2.5.Ty le gicfi tinh nQ 2.6 Ty le dan cu a thi 3.1 Ty le ho sir dyng dien 3.2.Ty le ho dung nuae sach sinh hoat 3.3.S6 ho eo nha ve sinh phu hop 3.4 Thdng canh du Hch 3.S So ca so liru tru (khach san) 3.6 Sd thue bao dien thoai /lOO dan 4.1.Ham lugng COD niroc mat lye dia tai cac eira song chinh 4.2 Ham lugng BOD nude mat lye dia tai cac eira sdng chinh 4.3 Ham lugng SS nuac bi6n ven bd XH4 XH5 XH6 VHl VH2 VH3 VH4 VH5 VH6 MTl Don V4 Casd Thue bao Mg/1 MT2 Mg/1 2,0 MT3 Mg/I 0,5 % Ty dong Ty dong Tan/nam Tan/nam % % Ngudi/km^ %0 % % % % % TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHE THOY LOI SO 17 - 2013 94,7 86,4 308,5 9,2 51,2 9,8 99,3 57,0 35,2 1,0 1,0 75,0 18,0 KHOA HOC CONG NGHE CHi THI CHUBfe 4.4 Ham lugng CO khong 4.5 Ham lupng NO2 khdng 4.6 Dp Ph moi trudng ddt Khi hau va tac dgng cua BDKH 6.Ca ch6, chinh sach dau tu phat trien va ke hoach ling phd vdi bien ddi h^u KY HI$U MT4 MT5 MT6 DON VI TINH SO LI$U THONG KE mg/m^ mg/m^ S.l.Nhietdg KHI «C 5.2 Lupng mua 5.3.Tan suat cac cac can bao, lu, han han 5.4 S6 ngudi chet thien tai 5.5.Nha cira bj cudn troi, sap 5.6.Thi?t hai ve tai san cac tham ho^ thien tai 6.1 Chat thai ran sinh boat dupc thu gom, xOr ly 6.2.Cac he sinh thai bien, ven bien dupc nghien cuu 6.3 Rirng mdi nham ung vdi BDKH 6.4 Kinh phi sir nghiep mdi trirdng KH2 KH3 KH4 KHS KH6 CSI CS2 CS3 CS4 mm can Ngudi Can Ty ddng Khu Trieu ddng 6.5 Ca cau vdn dau tu cua nganh thuy san 6.6 So dir an quan ly tdng hpp ddi bd, umg phd BDKH 6.7.H6 trp von ngu dan danh bat xa bd CS5 CS6 CS7 Duan Ty ddng % % KET QUA VA THAO LUAN 1,9 0,025 6,9 27,4 2684,0 3,0 1,0 2,0 53,0 35,0 2,0 502,0 2010,0 3,1 1,0 7,0 R2, R6) ta ap dung bang tra ham vien (membership function), di tinh toan s6 li?u cr ma tran U (so lieu) so voi ma tran tieu chuan danh gia V (bae hin vung) Bang du^c De CO ma tran kk qua danh gia Ri = (Rl, chia cip, cu thS nhu sau: Bdng Cdc hdm thudc cho md hinh ddnh gid ma trdn Ri Tinh toan ma tran cac yeu to tham gia danh gia theo thuat toan mcr c, Ci 34 22 Mu-c phdt trien ben virng theo hdm thdnh vien f, (Cd I 77 777 IV V 0 0 32 - Ci Ci - 0 a2 - 3i 32 - 33 Ci C, 32 0 33 - 32 33 - 32 34 - Ci Ci - 33 0 34 - 33 0 0 TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHf T H C Y LOI SO 17 - 2013 KHOA HOC CONG NGHE Trong dd ci la sd lipu cua clii thi ddnh gid, al, viing, ben vung trung binh, kha ben viing, ben a2, a3, a4 la ede can bien cua cac tieu chudn vflng Ket qua tinh todn nhu sau: ddnh gia cita cac bdc: khdng bdn vflng, it bdn Rl = 0,66 0,00 0,80 0,22 0,06 0,00 0.51 0,34 0,00 0,00 0.00 0,94 0,00 0,50 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,20 0,78 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,24 0,00 0,15 0,76 0,14 0,85 0,00 0,86 0,00 0,00 1,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,25 0,00 0,00 0,76 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 0,50 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,89 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,50 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,11 0,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 0,00" 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00_ 0,00" 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,40 0,40 1,00 R4 = R6 = 0,60 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 _0,00 1,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,60 0,00 0,00 0,17 0,60 0,60 0,00 0,40 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,49 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,40 0,00 0,36 0,83 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,51 0,00 0,90 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,64 0.00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,00" 0,00 0,00 0,00 0.00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 1,00 0,25 0,75 0,00 1,0Q_ 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Xdc djnh trpng so cho cac y^u to tham gia ddnh gia theo phirong phap AHP A3-(0,19 0,19 0,07 0,19 0,20 0,16) Ap dyng phuang phdp phdn tieh trpng sd theo ti^n trinh cdp bae (AHP) eho timg ehu de vd timg ydu td (ehi thi) tham gia ddnh gia ta cd ket qua ve trpng sd danh gid tinh ben vflng ddi bd huyen Phu M^ Nhu sau nhu sau: A5=(0,09 0,13 0,20 0,19 0,14 0,25) Trpng sd chii de: A =(0,08 0,18 0,20 0,23 0,14 0,18) Trpng sd cac chi thi: Al=(0,12 0,10 0,29 0.08 0,05 0,13 0,24) A4=(0,ll 0,06 0,18 0,13 0,22 0,31) A6=(0,10 0,16 0,15 0,20 0,13 0,15 0,11) Sau cd ma tr^n ket qua danh gid Ri ede ehi thi theo hdm vien ta nhdn vdi trpng sd cua timg chi thi Ai = (Al, A2, A6) ta cd ma tran ket qud ddnh gid Bi = Ai * Ri Trong dd Bi-(B1,B2, B6) Ma trdn ddnh gid todn dien md toan bp he thdng U Id R: A2=(0,12 0,06 0,18 0,15 0,18 0,31) TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGH? T H O Y LO'I SO 17 - 2013 23 KHOA HQC 'Bl' R= Bl 'bii bn bn ••• bim bn ••• bim bsl ••• bsm — B bii Kit qua danh gid B =A ' R B = (0,08 0,18 0,20 0,23 0,14 0,18) "0,000 0,443 0,408 0,064 0,348 0,472 "0,000 0,443 0,408 0,064 0,348 0,472 0,122 0,228 0,085 0,042 0,116 0,119 0,122 0,228 0,035 0,042 0,116 0,119 0,453 0,174 0,228 0,000 0,212 0,200 0,453 0,174 0,223 0,000 0,212 0,200 0,203 0,039 0,279 0,054 0,324 0,013 0,203 0,039 0,279 0,054 0,324 0,013 0,222 0,116 0,000 0,840 0,000 0,195 0,222" 0,116 0,000 0,840 0,000 0,196 B - [ b l b2 b3 b4 b5] =[0,3067 0,1146 0, 1758 0.1374 0,2655] KET LU^N Kdt qua dsnh gia tong hop sau cung la: Phil My la huyen tap trung cdc hoat dpng khai bl thde vd nudi trdng thuy hai san cua tinh Trong b2 nhung ndm qua, khu vue ven bien huy?n Phii b3 M5* dupe nhd nude quan tam phdt tridn giao T = V*B-' = [1 ] * b4 due, y tg, khuydn khieh, hd trpf dau tu danh bdt b5 xa bd Tuy nhien, dieu kidn kinh td, xa hOi cua cde huyen edn nghieu khd khdn, b6n r 0,3067 canh dd dia phucfng chua xdy di^g ke 0,1146 2,94 [12 5] hoach hdnh ddng cu the nhdm iing phd vdi 0,1758 bien ddi h$u va nudc bien dan§ cho nen 0,1374 hang nam chju nhieu tac ddng bien ddi 0,2655 hau gay nhu hem han, lu lut, bao Viee khai Nhu vdy vdi gia tri phan hac 1,2,3,4,5 ta chia thde ngudn lgi thuy san tai dam De Gi vd ddm Tra da dem 1^ thu nhap, nang cao ddi sdng ddu khodng, neu diem ddnh gid: kinh te cho mdt bp phan ldm dan cu ven bien [1-1,8] ddi bd huyen Phu My thudc loai nhun^ edn xay tinh trang khai thdc ngudn khdng bdn vitng lpi bdng phuofng phap huy duyet dan ddn s\r [1,8-2,6] ddi bd huyen Phii My thude loai can kiet tai nguyen, suy thoai va mat can bdng h$ sinh thai vung ven bien Phu My kem ben vflng [2,6-3,4] ddi bd huyen Phu My thupe loai Tren ca sd nghien ciru cae bd chi thi sur d\ing de danh gid tinh ben vflng nudc va trdn bgn vihig trung binh thd gidi, ddng thdi kdt hpp vdi didu tra, khdo [3,4-4,2] ddi bd huyen Phu My thudc lo^i sat eu thd tinh hinh kinh td-xa hdi vd moi khd ben vitng h^dng huyfn Phy My didu kidn bidn ddi [4,2-5] ddi bd huyen Phu My thudc lo^i h$u, tde gia da chpn lpc va thiet l^p bp chi bgn vung thi de ddnh gid tinh bdn vfltig eho ddi bd huypn Phu My Ap dung phuong phdp danh Theo ket qua danh gid nhu trgn thi ddi bd gia d\ra theo thuat toan ly thuyet md ket h(^ huy?n Phil My cd kdt qud tinh didm vdi phuong phap xae dinh trpng so theo tiln khodng [2,6-3,4] Nhu vay, ta cd thd kdt ludn trinh phan tich thu bdc, kdt qua danh gia t6ng mflc dp ben vflng cua doi bd huyen Phii My thd eho thdy doi bd huyen Phil My cd tinh bin thupc bae III (bdc ben virng trung binh) vimg d mue trung binh 24 TAP CHl KHOA HQC VA C O N G NGH? T H O Y L Q I S O 17 - 2013 I Cac yeu td phat trien kinh te - xd hpi dd bao gdm cdc nhdm trpng so ed tde ddng ldn nhat den su dn dinh cua ddi bd nen can duoe quan tdm giam sat ehdt ch€ etlng nhu dua trdn kdt qua tinh todn de chii dpng cdng tac quy hoach, chi dao san xuat va khai thde ddnh KHOA HOC CONG NGHE bdt thuy hai san Tron^ thdi gian tdi, edn nghien cuu, ddnh gid cu the hieu qua eua ho^t dpng khai thde, nudi trdng thuy sdn va qu^ ho?ch phat triln kinh texa hdi viing ven bien gdn vdi kd hoaeh hanh ddng ling phd vdi bien doi hdu TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [1] Thomas L Saaty (2008) "Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process" University of Pittsburgh, USA [2] Jinying SUN (2006) " F u z ^ Comprehensive Evaluation Model and Influence Factors Analysis on Comprehensive Performance of Green Buildings" Harbin Institute of Technology, China [3] Chen Fan (2008) Study on the Method of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for the Independent Innovation Ability of Construction Enterprises Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, China [4] Chi cue Khai thac va BVNL Thuy san Binh Dinh (2009) Tilm nang va th^rc trang khai thac thuy san tai Binh Djnh [5] Nguyen Van Long (2010) Hi?n trang khai thac va sir dyng ngudn tai nguy8n sinh vdt dam De Gi Bao cao chuyen de, Vi?n Hai duang hpc [6] Cyc Thdng k6 Binh Djnh Ni6n gidm th6ng k§ 2010 va 2011 [7] UBND xa My Thanh Bao cdo rinh hinh klnh te-xa h^i nam 2011 va phuang hirdng nhi^m vy 2012 [8] UBND huy^n Phu My Bao cdo tinh hinh kinh te-xa hpi nam 2011 va phuoTig hudng nhi^m vy 2012 TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHE THCIY LOI SO 17 - 2013 25 ... gii mo timg ySu t6 rieng re tap hgp U duac phdn bSc theo ^/=kl-«,2iti„}i = l2. -6 ^ cac chu de Ui Trong Rij (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) la so chi thi co ban khac co trcng mot dien dat miic vien ciia chii... - 33 0 34 - 33 0 0 TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHf T H C Y LOI SO 17 - 2013 KHOA HOC CONG NGHE Trong dd ci la sd lipu cua clii thi ddnh gid, al, viing, ben vung trung binh, kha ben viing, ben... nhdn vdi trpng sd cua timg chi thi Ai = (Al, A2, A6) ta cd ma tran ket qud ddnh gid Bi = Ai * Ri Trong dd Bi-(B1,B2, B6) Ma trdn ddnh gid todn dien md toan bp he thdng U Id R: A2=(0,12 0,06 0,18