Algorithm for Risk Assessment in the Introduction of Intelligent Transport Systems Facilities Transportation Research Procedia 20 ( 2017 ) 373 – 377 2352 1465 © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier[.]
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 373 – 377 12th International Conference "Organization and Traffic Safety Management in large cities", SPbOTSIC-2016, 28-30 September 2016, St Petersburg, Russia Algorithm for Risk Assessment in the Introduction of Intelligent Transport Systems Facilities Olga Krivolapova * Don State Technical University, Gagarina square, Rostov-on-Don, 344000, Russia Abstract Introduction of intelligent transport systems (ITS) facilities is a complex and time consuming process It requires developing various ITS architectures, a clear definition of tasks (needs of the user) and compilation of databases In order to avoid negative results of introduction of ITS projects, a new approach in designing ITS, taking into account all possible risks of each stage of designing and introducing ITS facilities, becomes a priority The paper proposes an algorithm for risk assessment during introduction of ITS projects A risk management system is required for identification, grouping and analysis of major risks of ITS, as well as for developing the ways to mitigate possible risks © Published by Elsevier B.V This © 2017 2016The TheAuthors Authors Published by Elsevier B.V.is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference "Organization and Traffic Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference “Organization and Traffic Safety Safety Management in large cities" Management in large cities” Keywords: intelligent transport systems; traffic flows; safety; efficiency of operation of a transportation network; ITS architecture; risk analysis; risk management Introduction Efficiency and safety of operation of transportation networks of modern cities is performed with the help of extensive use of intelligent transport systems (ITS) Transport policy of all developed countries of the world has been based on developing and promoting intelligent transport systems, as well as creating a common information space, for over 35 years * Corresponding author Tel.: +0-000-000-0000 ; fax: +0-000-000-0000 E-mail address: olga-krivolapova@yandex.ru* 2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference “Organization and Traffic Safety Management in large cities” doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2017.01.056 374 Olga Krivolapova / Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 373 – 377 The principle of primacy of developing ITS architecture implies a systematic approach, which allows avoiding possible difficulties in development of intelligent transport systems The design of the system ensures consistency of operation of traffic management subsystems of any level The ITS architecture comprises all tools to solve the issues of traffic flow management The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for determining the risks associated with introduction of ITS facilities The subject of the study is the risk affecting efficiency of introducing intelligent transport systems facilities Main text The high level of motorization of modern cities has led to complications in functioning of the automotive transportation system, i.e reduction of speed of vehicles and constant traffic jams Failure to meet demands and quality of road transportation impacts on various economy sectors of regions and the country as a whole Introduction of intelligent transport systems (ITS) becomes one of the most challenging ways to solve transportation problems [Darido et al (2003), Zhankaziev (2016), Nazer and Jaffe (2006)] As a rule, introduction of certain ITS facilities can greatly enhance efficiency of road transportation In order to avoid risks and negative results in introducing ITS projects, a new approach on redistribution of traffic flows and forecasting of subsequent changes in operation of road networks becomes a priority [Kerner (2009), Naumova and Zyryanov (2015)] Risk management, including development of risk prevention plans and risk mitigation programs, is one of the most important stages in introducing intelligent transport systems facilities The risk management system is required for identification, grouping and analysis of major risks of ITS, as well as for developing the ways to mitigate possible risks (Table 1) Table Assessing performance of intelligent transport systems introduction The result of ITS development 1994 2004 2006 2009 16% 29% 35% 32% 53% 53% 46% 44% 31% 18% 19% 24% Project targets are achieved Project targets are achieved partially Project targets are not achieved Therefore, it is reasonable to include the following steps of designed risk assessment algorithm into the ITS architecture: The first step: planning introduction of an ITS facility This step includes actions aimed at risk elimination and minimization of its consequences: threat assessment, risk analysis and risk treatment Often, errors made at this stage lead to irreversible negative consequences For example, estimates of growth in demand for the route Greenway Dallas (USA) was assumed at 14% in the first six years according to specialists’ estimates during development of the route project [Damnjanovic (2009)] But, the initial assessment of 34,000 vehicles per day proved to be too optimistic, since the actual daily average intensity totaled 11,500 vehicles, which led to considerable financial losses of the project The second step: selection of risks It is impossible to manage risks as long as they are not clearly defined This step involves identification of risks in order to determine real threats These risks may include failure of data transfer, increase in the cost of services, violation of traffic safety level, social instability of the society, lagging development of the region, adverse impact on the environment [Zhankaziev and Vlasov (2010)] The third step: risk analysis Once all possible risks of the project are identified, detailed analysis aimed at identification of most probable and dangerous risks is required for further work with them The fourth step: dealing with risks The step includes identification of measures necessary to deal with problems identified during the risk assessment One of the methods of risk preventing may be online control, which would Olga Krivolapova / Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 373 – 377 require equipment of highways with means of monitoring and a team of highly skilled operators The purpose of online management is increase of efficiency and quality of the ITS The fifth step: selecting a mitigation strategy The step implies classification of risks included into the database, in accordance with conditions leading to these risks Developing a strategy of accident management should contribute to decrease of time spent to help victims For this reason, online control tools based on comprehensive monitoring of the network must be developed, which would reduce the need in additional tools and human intervention These tools should also include different scenarios of accidents, taking into account locations and response measures The sixth step: designing scenarios for mitigation of risk consequences There are crucial aspects for designing mitigation scenarios: x time frames; x cooperation of public and private sectors; x main trends in development of ITS; x aspects of the territory One of the methods of scenario grouping is division of risks on that depending on the time period and independent of it After initial classification, it should be identified if the ITS (or only some specific service of the ITS) is fully supported by the authorities, or if the private sector only is involved in development and operation of the ITS Several data sources would increase efficiency of the system But multiple data sources should not impede operation of the system; they should be used as a way of expanding information and attraction of new users Introduction of personal data would allow highway control centers obtaining new information for traffic configuration In their turn, traffic participants can access information on traffic conditions on the highways Expansion of the network of data exchange is possible following settlement of administration issues related to cooperation, distribution of responsibilities between various operators that usually operate independently Also, introduction of a great number of data sources would increase competitiveness of the ITS [Zyryanov (2009), Zyryanov and Krivolapova (2012), Zyryanov et al (2011)] The algorithm of risk analysis during introduction of intelligent transport systems is shown in Figure 375 376 Olga Krivolapova / Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 373 – 377 Step Planning introduction of an ITS facility Step Identification of risks - assessment of threats; - analysis of the risks; - treatinging the risks - failures in data transfer - increase in the cost of services - breach of traffic safety level - social instability - underdevelopment of the region - environmental impacts Step Analysis of risks - developing options of risk elimination - developing a program of risk mitigation Functional analysis of risks Analysis of economic variables: - changing of market prices - fix-prices at the market - loss of the value of the service - fixed assets - operational assets - financial assets Step Selectiing actions on mitigation of risks Analysis of performance: - service availability; - time of travel; - service accuracy; - fixed time of travel; - fixed modes of travel; - reliability; - control Identification of the most important probable risks during introduction of the ITS Classification of risks Reducing time spent for assistance in the case of a risk event Step Treatment of risks Measures for elimination of identified risks Step Developing scenarios of risk mitigation - determining time frames - cooperation of public and private sectors - main trends in development of ITS - peculiarities of the territory Developing online control Making of the decision on implementation of the ITS facility Fig The algorithm of risk analysis during introduction of intelligent transport systems Analysis of impact on: - the society; - economics Olga Krivolapova / Transportation Research Procedia 20 (2017) 373 – 377 Effective introduction of ITS facilities, possible due to accurately developed algorithm of risk assessment during introduction of the ITS, improves the quality of transportation servicing of population, provides road and traffic safety, extends capabilities of the automated traffic management system (ATMS) and the transportation system to meet the growing demand for passenger and freight transportation, improves the quality of public functions in the field of transportation of the region Conclusion The most effective way to solve the problems of the transportation system (such as reduction of the travel speed of vehicles, regular traffic jams and numerous traffic accidents) is introduction of intelligent transport systems Effective introduction of ITS facilities is impossible without careful analysis of all possible risks which should be identified at initial steps of developing the architecture of intelligent transport systems The developed methodology of risk analysis allows challenging this issue with maximum efficiency References Damnjanovic I (2009) Network-Based Decision Support Tool for Toll Roads Center for Transportation Research University of Texas 109 p Darido G., Osama T., Schneck D (2003) The Role for ITS in Transport Planning and Operations of Olympic Events: Case Studies and Lessons Learned In proceedings of 10th World Congress Intelligent Transport Systems and Services, Madrid Nazer Z., Jaffe R (2006) Regional ITS Architecture for London Olympics In proceedings of 13th ITS World Congress, London Kerner, B S (2009) Introduction to Modern Traffic Flow Theory and Control: The Long Road to Three-Phase Traffic Theory The Long Road to Three-Phase Traffic Theory Berlin: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 265 р Naumova N A., Zyryanov V V (2015) A method of computing the traffic flow distribution density in the network with new flow-forming objects being put into operation Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology, 78(1): 76–83 Zhankaziev S V (2016) Development of intelligent transportation systems [Razrabotka proektov intellektual'nyh transportnyh sistem] Tutorial Moscow: Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), 104 p (in Russian) Zhankaziev S V., Vlasov V M (2010) Scientific approaches to the strategy of state development of intelligent transport systems [Nauchnye podhody k formirovaniju gosudarstvennoj strategii razvitija intellektual'nyh transportnyh system] Journal “Autotransportnoie predpriyatie”, (7): 2–8 (in Russian) Zyryanov V.V (2009) Application of microsimulation to forecast the development of transportation infrastructure and traffic management [Primenenie mikromodelirovanija dlja prognozirovanija razvitija transportnoj infrastruktury i upravlenija dorozhnym dvizheniem] Journal “Russian roads of the 21st century”, (3): 37–40 (in Russian) Zyryanov V V., Kocherga V V., Pozdnyakov M N (2011) Modern approaches to the development of complex traffic schemes [Sovremennye podhody k razrabotke kompleksnyh shem organizacii dorozhnogo dvizhenija] Journal “Transport of the Russian Federation”, 32(1): 54–59 (in Russian) Zyryanov V V., Krivolapova O Yu (2012) Simulation and analysis of demand for improvement of transportation network objects [Modelirovanie i analiz sprosa na obyekty sovershenstvovanija transportnoj seti] Engineering Journal of Don, 4(1): 117 (in Russian) 377 ... peculiarities of the territory Developing online control Making of the decision on implementation of the ITS facility Fig The algorithm of risk analysis during introduction of intelligent transport systems. .. Planning introduction of an ITS facility Step Identification of risks - assessment of threats; - analysis of the risks; - treatinging the risks - failures in data transfer - increase in the cost of. .. Identification of the most important probable risks during introduction of the ITS Classification of risks Reducing time spent for assistance in the case of a risk event Step Treatment of risks Measures for