Ebook Plant breeding and biotechnology societal context and the future of agriculture part 2

Part V Increasing global crop production the new challenges A seed hidden in the heart of an apple is an orchard invisible Welsh proverb 14 Feeding the world – fallacies and realities I will venture t. Ebook Plant breeding and biotechnology societal context and the future of agriculture part 2 8792

Part V Increasing global crop production: the new challenges A seed hidden in the heart of an apple is an orchard invisible Welsh proverb 14 Feeding the world – fallacies and realities I will venture to affirm, that the three seasons wherein our corn has miscarried did no more contribute to our present misery, than one spoonful of water thrown upon a rat already drowned would contribute to his death; and that the present plentiful harvest, although it should be followed by a dozen ensuing, would no more restore us, than it would the rat aforesaid to put him near the fire, which might indeed warm his fur-coat, but never bring him back to life Jonathan Swift (1667–1745) Famine643 Introduction It is frequently opined in the popular and scienctific media alike that crop production may have serious difficulties in coping with projected increases in the global human population over the next fifty years It has also become commonplace to hear statements, from biotech companies, politicians and even some public sector scientists, that this putative crisis in food production can only be fully resolved by the global deployment of transgenic crops.644 Of course, over the past few centuries, we have repeatedly heard various Malthusian predictions about imminent famine, all of which have proven to be misplaced.645 As we saw in Chapter 4, it was forecasts of future famine that prompted the USDA to begin its programme of worldwide germplasm collections in the late nineteenth century The spectre of overpopulation was a recurring theme during the twentieth century, but the most egregious instances of misguided predictions of imminent apocalypse occurred in the late 1960s and early 1970s At that time, numerous ‘experts’ informed us that global famine was just around the corner.646 In reality, of course, even as they were being uttered, these dire warnings had already been gainsayed by the achievements of the Green Revolution crop breeders such as Norman Borlaug and his colleagues at CIMMYT (see chapter 6) So is there really an imminent food crisis in the twenty-first century, or are these concerns yet another false alarm? 213 214 Part V: Increasing global crop production As we will see below, we currently produce more food per capita than ever before, and more than enough to feed the world for many years to come It is therefore puzzling and worrying to hear warnings about imminent global starvation from many shades of opinion, including respected scientists It is even more troubling to hear powerful and influential political leaders arguing that the best way of addressing the supposed food crisis is to invest massively in agbiotech on a global scale The ‘saving the world with GM crops’ lobby has already convinced important decision makers, including US presidents Clinton and Bush, of the rectitude of their crusade.647 Ironically, this case for an imminent food crisis is rejected by those in antiGM environmentalist groups But, is the pro-GM lobby actually correct this time; we really face a food crisis? In the next two chapters, we will begin by examining the reality of the food supply situation in the light of population growth over the next 40–50 years We will seek to address the following questions What is the most likely magnitude of the expected population growth? How will the extra people be fed? What are the prospects for increasing crop production to cover increased food demand? And, finally, are transgenic varieties really required as part of a sustainable global crop improvement programme? The case for a global food crisis by 2050 is based on three premises, one of which is sound while the other two are decidedly suspect, as we will now discuss The first premise is that human populations will rise appreciably over the next half century This premise is based on well-characterised population trends There is widespread agreement among demographers that the world population will increase, possibly by as much as 50%, by 2050 The second premise is that we are now growing food on virtually all of the potentially arable land around the world However, we will see that recent evidence on land availability, from South America and elsewhere, seems to contradict this almost universally held assumption The third premise is that conventional, non-transgenic, breeding techniques have been exploited almost to their limit and that we cannot possibly expect the yield gains of the last fifty years to continue.648 We will see that this argument is based on a narrow analysis of a few of the major commercial crops It ignores or understates the immense and barely tapped genetic potential of dozens of other staple crops around the world Even concerning the major crops, the experienced and respected breeder, Donald Duvick of Pioneer Hi-Bred, has recently stated that ‘yield gains can continue at the same pace for several more decades’ and that ‘conventional plant breeding will continue as the essential foundation’,649 while Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug has argued that the world already has the technology available to feed 10 billion people on a sustainable basis.650 In the rest of this chapter, I will argue that, although we must not allow ourselves to become complacent about population growth, we nevertheless have an amply sufficient capacity in our production, management and 14 Feeding the world – fallacies and realities 215 crop improvement systems to avert a serious food crisis This conclusion is supported by the most recent findings from respected international bodies.651 For example, in 2004 an FAO report titled World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, stated that, between now and 2030: growth in food production will be higher than population growth By the year 2015/2030 per capita food supplies will have increased and the incidence of undernourishment will have been further reduced in most developing regions The world population will be increasingly wellfed by 2030, with 3050 kilocalories (kcal) available per person, compared to 2360 kcal per person per day in the mid-1960s and 2800 kcal today This change reflects the rising consumption in many developing countries whose average will be close to 3000 kcal in 2030.652 The projections for food production in this FAO report are based on current breeding technologies and make no assumptions, either for good or ill, about the contribution of transgenic varieties to future food yields In short, this and other robust evidence from impartial and reliable sources suggests that it is most unlikely that we will face anything resembling the catastrophic mass hunger that has been repeatedly predicted from the time of Malthus until the present day With regard to the best way to improve food production, I will argue that the yield gains realised from readily implemented measures, such as better management and infrastructure in developing countries, bringing more land into cultivation, and abolition of pernicious subsidies and tariffs in industrial countries, will achieve vastly more than even the most optimistic dreams of the proponents of transgenic crops We will now begin by examining the evidence for population increase and the frequently overlooked role of economic growth in augmenting future food production.653 Population, economic growth and food production Projections of global population growth over the next fifty years are in general agreement in estimating that, while the rate of growth is now slowing down appreciably, there will still be an additional 2.6 billion people by 2050.654 Virtually all of this population growth will take place in developing countries, especially in Asia and Africa The projections are based on current trends that include an increasingly dynamic and productive economic outlook for most of the developing regions that will experience significant population growth Factors that curtail economic growth will, ironically, lead to much higher rates of population increase, because less well-developed societies tend to have far higher ratios of births per woman.655 Indeed, it is largely the increasing affluence of countries like China and India, due in part to the Green Revolution of the 1970s, that has facilitated the steady decline in global birth rates over the past few decades 216 Part V: Increasing global crop production For the past fifty years the world has increased its food production at a much faster rate than the population increase Excess food production has been especially pronounced in industrialised countries, where surpluses have been accentuated by agricultural subsidies from governments The oversupply of food has been reflected in a steady decline in the prices of edible commodities over the past fifty years For example, in 1950 palm and soybean oils cost about $2 000 per tonne, whereas current prices are more like $400 per tonne.656 This represents a staggering 80% decline in the value of these internationally traded staples Similar declines have occurred in the value of other major crops such as rice and wheat Higher food production has far outstripped increases in demand, whether due to rising populations or increased affluence In many parts of Europe and North America, crop surpluses have even contributed to a significant depression in agricultural sectors, leading to the setting aside or abandonment of good arable land for food production This agricultural overcapacity is one of the resources that can be tapped to increase food production in the future Targeting disadvantaged regions In a sense, we already produce enough food to cope with the expected population increase until 2050 This is because, although the world population has increased by 2.2-fold since 1950, food production increased by 3.1-fold over the same period We now produce 40% more food per capita than in 1950 and most of the world’s population now consumes significantly more food per capita than previously.657 So, even if the world population does increase by 40% in the next few decades, it could still be fed from our current levels of agricultural production, provided that we all reverted to a 1950s-like diet, i.e less meat and fat and a lot more plant carbohydrates However, while such a diet might be beneficial for the chronically overfed in industrialised countries, it is unlikely that we will all need to go back to what would undoubtedly be a less-than-universally popular 1950s dietary regime of bread, potatoes and turnips.658 In reality, we have several options for increasing global food supplies in addition to breeding higher yielding crops Other options that have been overlooked by many in the food debate include expansion of arable land area and improved management of existing crop systems (see below) Although current world agricultural production provides a modest overall surplus of food, for a variety of mainly economic and/or political reasons, this food does not always reach the most disadvantaged groups Given the political will to distribute them, sufficient food reserves already exist to cope with periodic localised shortages due to events such as drought, disease, flooding or warfare Moreover, the FAO predicts that improved agricultural and economic development will cause the number 14 Feeding the world – fallacies and realities 217 of hungry people to fall from 770 million to 440 million by 2030, despite a predicted population increase of well over one billion people during the same period.659 In the past, the region that always seemed to miss out on advances in agriculture was subSaharan Africa According to a series of FAO reports, the number of hungry people in sub-Saharan Africa will not decline appreciably between now and 2030.660 In contrast, as discussed above, the numbers in the rest of the world are predicted to fall sharply over the same period.661 Economic growth and sustainability It is obvious that one of the primary concerns of global agriculture over the coming decades should be to provide sufficient food to sustain increasing human populations Two other concerns about the ‘mission’ of agriculture are that it should be both economically rewarding for the farmer and sustainable in the long term The former concern is far from being realised in the present unfree global marketplace, with large government subsidies being paid to certain farmers, most notably in the richer industrialised countries of North America, Europe and Japan To make things even worse, much of the trade in agricultural commodities from developing countries is restricted by a combination of quotas and tariffs in order to further protect uncompetitive farmers in industrialised countries.662 This artificial rigging of the market against developing country producers obviously affects them in the short term by keeping them in poverty It also impedes their ability to address long-term sustainability issues because it suppresses their potential for economic advancement We will discuss subsidies further in the next chapter The issue of economic development and its relationship to sustainability is of great importance for developing countries, especially in view of potentially trade-damaging criticisms of their sustainability and environmental practices from people in the comfort zone of the rich industrial world.663 There is good evidence that the capacity of a nation to address issues like sustainability and the environment is closely linked with its economic advancement One of the best-known manifestations of the link between sustainability and economic wellbeing is the so-called ECK (or environmental Kuznets curve) hypothesis The ECK hypothesis posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between average per capita income and unsustainable activities, such as uncontrolled pollution from excess fertiliser runoff or industrial emissions In other words, environmental degradation tends to increase sharply during the early stages of industrialisation, as it did previously in much of Europe and North America Pollution rates then tend to level off and finally to fall as average incomes rise, and environmental awareness and the wherewithal to address such challenges also increase Most post-industrial economies have already passed through this cycle The 218 Part V: Increasing global crop production overall hypothesis has been neatly encapsulated by economist Theodore Panayotou as follows: At low levels of development both the quantity and intensity of environmental degradation is limited to the impacts of subsistence economic activity on the resource base and to limited quantities of biodegradable wastes As economic development accelerates with the intensification of agriculture and other resource extraction and the take off of industrialization, the rates of resource depletion begin to exceed the rates of resource regeneration, and waste generation increases in quantity and toxicity At higher levels of development, structural change towards information-intensive industries and services, coupled with increased environmental awareness, enforcement of environmental regulations, better technology and higher environmental expenditures, result in leveling off and gradual decline of environmental degradation.664 Most economists would agree, however, that we cannot simply wait for market forces to enable most people in a particular region to get (relatively) rich, before such countries begin to tackle their most serious environmental problems It seems that a judicious measure of government intervention is normally warranted in order to supplement and catalyse market forces towards more environmentally benign practices.665 These arguments appear to be borne out in the case of some of the more economically advanced developing nations As such countries become more affluent, they tend to start taking agro-environmental and sustainability issues more seriously A good example is the case of oil palm cultivation in Malaysia.666 In recent years, the Malaysian oil palm industry has started to take greater note of environmental and sustainability issues, thanks to a mixture of self-interest and pressure from government and other advisory bodies For example, in the late 1990s the Malaysian government instituted a ‘zero burning’ policy on all plantations.667 Prior to this, many plantation managers had burned old or diseased palm trees before planting new seedlings.668 The new policy means chopping down trees, mulching, and stacking the chips, and a delay of six months while the material rots in the ground Although these methods are both more expensive and less efficient at controlling diseases than traditional burning, they are deemed to be more environmentally sound; and this has enabled oil palm to maintain and expand its markets in ecosensitive regions such as Western Europe Therefore, although an over-naă ve interpretation of the environmental Kuznet’s curve hypothesis is not warranted, there is much empirical evidence to commend the notion that economic growth can often greatly facilitate environmental amelioration in the longer term.669 A major challenge in addressing agricultural development in needier regions is to look beyond a facile reliance on palliative measures, such as food aid or redistribution, in order to alleviate local deficiencies in food production A far more satisfactory and durable long-term solution, for all concerned, is to enable food 14 Feeding the world – fallacies and realities 219 producers in such regions to generate their own surpluses, by a combination of biological and economic measures Biological measures include access to improved seed and agronomic advice, while economic measures can encompass everything from trade liberalisation to improved market infrastructure (access to loans, reduced taxes, better communications and transport etc) Advice on sustainability issues to developing countries is also important, but this must always be given in the context of their stage of economic development The most effective long-term mechanism to ensure that the ever shifting targets of agricultural sustainability are met is to facilitate the development of a thriving agrarian economy, with well-educated and financially secure farmers who will then tend to act more sustainably in their own long-term interests One of the most important challenges for agricultural managers, including farmers, will be to ensure that improved yields not come at the expense of long-term sustainability of farming systems.670 As we have seen above in the case of oil palm, increased awareness of sustainability issues goes hand in hand with increasing affluence This is relatively straightforward for a major crop, like oil palm, that is produced mainly on large plantations, but is less easy to facilitate in the case of smallholder cropping systems One of the guarantors that agricultural sustainability at all levels of production is maintained as a key objective in a country is the continued participation of public sector scientists as major players in the overall enterprise of both national and international crop improvement In his book The Doubly Green Revolution, President of the Rockefeller Foundation Gordon Conway argues that many of the failings of the first Green Revolution came from a lack of attention to issues of long-term sustainability in the kinds of crop growing systems that were introduced so quickly in the 1960s and 1970s For example, the over-reliance on fertilisers and lack of attention to soil structure led to soil erosion, nutrient depletion, falling water tables and salinisation, even in the immensely fertile region of the Indian Punjab.671 These challenges are now being addressed by initiatives from CGIAR and national crop research centres in the affected countries We will now examine the question of land use, and in particular the prospects for utilising potentially productive, but currently unused, land for arable farming Expanding the area of crop cultivation In 2005, the global area of arable (cultivated) cropland was about 1380 million hectares, or just over 10% of the total land mass This may seem like a rather small proportion to use for such a vital purpose as food production, but much of the world’s land is unsuitable for farming owing to climate, topography or various other forms of use by humans, including as urban and industrial centres We should also remember that the global arable area of 1.4 billion hectares is dwarfed by the 3.4 220 Part V: Increasing global crop production billion hectares that is used for pasture, i.e raising animals for meat and dairy production.672 Although not all pastureland is suitable for cultivation, a significant proportion could certainly be brought into arable use Moreover, this could often be done without reducing livestock numbers, e.g by making wider use of feedlots and other intensive animal husbandry regimes In addition to converting pasture, there are several other options for continued expansion of arable cultivation around the world, as we will now see Over the past 150 years, new land has been brought into arable production on an immense scale For example, in the sixty-year period from 1860–1920 a remarkable 440 million hectares was cultivated for the first time, more than half of it in the newly occupied Great Plains region of North America A similar scale of transformation took place over the next fifty years until, by the third quarter of the twentieth century, the vast majority of the potentially productive temperate land of the northern hemisphere had been brought under the plough More recently, a considerable amount of new land has been brought into cultivation in developing countries, while in the industrialised nations the arable land area has actually declined Between 1961 and 1997, the arable land area of developing countries rose from 610 to 750 million hectares (a 23% increase), while that of the industrialised countries fell from 650 to 630 million hectares This decrease of over 20 million arable hectares in developing countries, which is almost as large as the entire landmass of the UK, is largely the result of setting aside ever more potentially productive land as fallow, owing to surplus food production.673 The received, or conventional, wisdom from many scientific experts, and from pundits of every hue, states that we have now more or less reached the limit of usefully cultivated land on the planet This is despite published evidence that there has been no slowdown in the rate of conversion into arable land in the developing world as a whole The most recent data from the late 1990s show that the conversion rate is still at million hectares/year, which if anything is slightly higher than the average rate of 3.9 million hectares/year for the entire period from 1961–1997.674 This suggests that there is no shortage of land for conversion to farming and that arable expansion is still proceeding at the same steady rate as over the past fifty years We should therefore ask the simple question: where is all this new land that is still being settled and farmed so assiduously? The short answer is: mostly in South America It is a curious omission of those who advocate the prevailing ‘limits of cultivation’ argument that they have largely ignored the enormous untapped potential for arable expansion in places such as South America Their argument also ignores the existence in industrialised countries of comparatively large areas of abandoned, but potentially productive, arable land As we will now see, the abandoned and the new lands both carry the promise of huge additional capacity for food production over the coming decades ... with the intensification of agriculture and other resource extraction and the take off of industrialization, the rates of resource depletion begin to exceed the rates of resource regeneration, and. .. promise of huge additional capacity for food production over the coming decades 14 Feeding the world – fallacies and realities 22 1 Reclaiming abandoned and set-aside land The abandonment of farmland... the question of land use, and in particular the prospects for utilising potentially productive, but currently unused, land for arable farming Expanding the area of crop cultivation In 20 05, the