Di CU", tich tu dan so niianli va nhirng tac dong den kinh te, xa hoi tir goc nhin cua nguoi di cu" den cac tinh Dong Nam Bo Luu Bich Ngoc Viin Ddn sd vd cdc vdn di xd hpi, Tru&ng dgi hgc Kinh ti qudc ddn Email: bichngocluu(g),gmail com Nguyen Thi Thieng Viin Ddn sd vd cdc vdn di xd hdi, Truimg dgi hoc Kinh ti qudc ddn Email: thiengnt@gmail com Ngaynhan: 13/7/2016 Ngay nhan ban sira: 15/8/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/8/2016 Tom tat: Ddng Nam Bp Id vitng cdng nghiip hda, dd thi hod nhanh, hiin da tr& thdnh khu vuc kinh ti phdt trien nhdt Viet Nam, ddng gop han 2/3 tdng thu ngdn sdch nha nu&c hdng ndm Ddy la vitng cd ty li thi hod cao gdp ddi ty li chung ciia todn qudc Ddng th&i, day ciing la vitng CO miec dp tap trung ddn sd nhanh nhdt nu&c thdp niin viea qua xet cd vi quy md ldn ty sudt nhgp cu Di cu, tich tu ddn sd tgo nin nhieng tdc dpng tich cite cd ve kinh ti, xd hpi Bin cgnh do, nd ciing tgo nin nhiing nhiing dp luc ddi v&i cd mat ndi trin Nghiin cu-u ndy thuc hien ddnh gid tdc ddng cua di cu, tich tu ddn sd nhanh den kinh ti, xd hpi cita viing Ddng Nam Bd dua trin y kiin ddnh gid tdc dpng cita chinh bdn thdn ngu&i di cu Nhimg nhdn td dnh hucmg din cdc nhgn dinh cua ngu&i di cu vi cdc tdc dpng tich cue hoac tiiu cue cimg dugc ldm rd bdng phdn tich hdi quy Tir khoa: Di cu; Tich to dan sd; Tac ddng kinh te, xa hpi, Ddng Nam Bd Migration, rapid population concentration and socio-economic Impacts evaluated by migrants in Southest region Abstract: Southeast is the rapid urbanization and industrialization region that has now become a most developed economic region in Vietnam, contributing more than 2/3 of the total of state budget revenue annually This area has a urbanization rate double higher than the national average rate At the same time, this is also the region that has the fastest population concentration level in the countiy in some last decades both in terms of size and migration rate Migration, rapid population concentration created the positive impacts on economy, society Besides, it also created many pressures on three sides above This study aimed at analyzing the economic, social impacts of migration and rapid population concentration in Southeast region, that based on the evaluation of the migrants themselves The factors affecting the migrants' evaluations on the positive or negative impacts were made clearer by regression analysis Keywords: Migration; population concentration; socio-economic impacts; southest region Gioi thieu thu hut vdn dau tu manh nhat tren toan qudc, ddng Sau chinh sach Ddi Mdi ciia Chinh phii, Ddng thdi, day cung la vung cd muc dp tap trang dan sd Nam Bp la viing cdng nghiep hda, thj hda nhanh, nhanh thap nien vii'a qua Theo kit qua T i n g So 231 thing 9/2016 33 cd tbi din din mdt sl hau qua khdng mong dgi, nhu: lam giam nhu ciu lao ddng ban dia, lam giam gia nhan cdng tren thj tradng lao ddng Tuong ddng vdi bii canb cua Viet Nam la cac nghien cuu vl di cu d Trang Qudc, Zhu (2002) da sit dung md hinb toan hpc de phan tich cac nhan td, chi mdt sl tac ddng din di dan ndng thdn-dd thj nhu: (1) Tang luong can bien dd thj hoac giam luang can bien ndng thdn, lam tang di cu to ndng thdn thj; (2) Co bdi viec lam duoc tao nhilu d khu vyc thj tac ddng manh den nhap cu vao thj; (3) Giam chi phi di chuyen se lam tang di dan ndng thdn - dd thj; (4) Phat triln khu vyc ndng thdn lam giam di dan ndng thdn - thj Dilu tra Dan sl va Nha d ngay thang nam 2009 (Ting cue Thing ke, 2010), dan sl viing Ddng Nam Bd la 14.025.387 ngudi, chilm 16,34% dan sd toan quic va la viing cd tic dp tang dan sd cao nhat nudc Lao ddng to nhilu viing, miin khac tap trang vl day vung Ddng Nam Bp da tan hudng Igi tbi gia lao dpng re dl tang tra'dng va phat Uien kinh tl Ddng Nam Bp da trd khu vyc kinh te phat ttiln nhit Viet Nam, ddng gdp ban 2/3 tdng thu ngan sach nha nudc hang nam Trong ty le dd thi boa trang binh cua ca nudc nam 2014 dat 33,9% thi ty le dd thj boa d Ddng Nam Bp da dat 64,95%) (Ting cue Thing ke, 2015) Theo quy luat, nhu'ng vimg cdng nghiep hda, thj hda nhanh se cd site thu hiit manh ngudi nhap cu Ty le nhap cu thuin ciia vung Ddng Nam Bd giai doan 2004-2009 la 127%o, gip lin so vdi Tay Nguyen, khu vuc cd ty le nhap cu thuan Idn thir hai cua Viet Nam, gip lin so vdi giai doan 1994-1999 Trong giai doan nam 2004-2009, -vung Ddng Nam Bp da ddn 1.635 nghin ngudi nhap cu, Idn gip han lin so vdi ting sl ngudi nhap cu vao Ddng bang sdng Hing, vimg cd quy md ngudi nhap cu ldn thir hai (289 nghin ngudi), Idn gip gin lin so vdi giai doan 1994-1999 (580 nghin ngudi) (Tdng Cue Thing ke, 2010) Di cu va tich to dan sl mang nd ca nhung tac dpng d tim vi md ddi vdi ngudi di cu lan nhung tac dpng d tim vT md ddi vdi phat trien viing O tam vi md, di cu giiip "thoa man" nhftng nhu can ve tim kilm viec lam, thu nhap, cai thien cudc sdng O tam vT md, di cu cd ca tac ddng tich cue va tieu cue vdi kinh tl, xa hpi, mdi tradng ciia viing nhap cu Bai viet md ta buc tranh tich to dan sd vao vimg Ddng Nam Bp thap nien trade day de cho thay cimg vdi qua trinh cdng nghiep hoa - dd thj boa, tich to dan sd nhanh da bien Ddng Nam Bd trd viing phat trien nhat cita Viet Nam Sau do, bai viet trinh bay danh gia tac ddng cua di cu, tich tu dan sd den kinh te, xa hdi ctia vimg Ddng Nam Bp theo y kien danh gia cua ngud'i di cu ve nhflng tac dpng ndi tren Tong quan nghien ciru Di dan npi dja dugc dac trang nii bat bdi lulng di dan nong thdn - thj ndi len manh tit nhung nam 1950 Lewis (1954) da coi di dan ndng thdn dd thj la mpt bd phan cau ciia qua trinh phat trien kinh te, cung cip lyc lupng lao ddng "du thua" ndng thdn cho nen kinh tl cdng nghiep thj Dilu Sd 231 thing 9/2016 Laing & cdng sy (2005) tilp tire khing djnh chenh lech thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi giua cac khu vyc la ddng lyc chit ylu thiic day di eu Nhung anh hudng ciia lao ddng di cu dii vdi noi nhap cu cung duac tac gia phan tich dudi cac khia canh: ty le tim dugc viec lam d dd thj thap, ty le that nghiep dd thj cao, giam gia nhan cdng tien thj tradng lao dpng dd thj Viet Nam, lien quan din tac ddng cua di cu dii vdi cdng ding noi din, nhieu nghien eun nhan manh tim quan trpng ciia ngudi di cu viec bd sung ngudn lao ddng phuc vu phat trien kinh te va ddng gdp dang ke vao sy tang tradng eua cac thj va ttnng tam cdng nghiep noi hp chuyen den (Vien nghien cira kinb tl Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh, 1996; Dang Nguyen Anb, 1997, 1998, 1999 va 2005; Uy ban cac van de xa hdi ciia Qudc hdi khda XI, 2005; UN Viet Nam, 2010) Ben eanh nhung tac ddng tich cue nay, cac nghien ciiu cflng chi nhftng anh hudng tieu cyc cua di cu ddi vdi kinh te-xa hpi ciia nai den, cu the la khd khan ttd ngai cdng tac quan ly banh chinh (Dang Nguyen Anh, 1999); tang sire ep ddi vdi be thdng co sd tang nhu nha d, nudc sach, ve sinh, giao thdng di lai, va he thdng djch vu xa hdi nhu y te, giao dye, (Dang Nguyen Anh, 1999; UN Viet Nam, 2010); gia nhan cdng cua lao dpng nhap cu thap ban dan den gia tang canh tranh giu'a lao ddng nhap cu vdi lao ddng ban dia ve phuang dien gia nhan cdng, ddng thdi viec tang lyc lupng lao ddng cflng lam tang ty le that nghiep d dd thj (Vien nghien cuu kinh te Thanh phd Hd Chi Minli, 1996) 34 Phuang phap nghien ciru Di cu va tich to dan sl nhanh din -vung Ddng Nam Bd dugc minh chung bing cac sl lieu phan ly'liiil trien djnh Mu'c la mirc ddng gdp cao nhat va la mirc ddng gdp thip nhat Phan tieh se thay mite dp danh gia ciia ngudi di cu bang mite dp nhu sau: mu'c va mirc la y kien danh gia khdng quan trpng hay ndi eac khac la ddng gdp khdng nhieu Mirc 3, mu'c va mirc la quan trpng va rat quan trpng hay la mire ddng gdp nhieu tieh to bd sl lieu cua cac cudc Tdng dieu tta Dan sd va Nha d cae nam 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 va Dilu tta Dan sd giua ky thdi dilm 1/4/2014 Cac chi bao ve quy md dan sl, ty suit nbap cu thuin ciia Ddng Nam Bd dugc so sanh vdi cac chi bao cua cac •vimg dia ly khac de lam ndi bat muc tich to dan sd vao Ddng Nam Bg vdng 30 nam sau Ddi Mdi Nhirng y kien nhan djnh ciia ngudi di cu ve tac ddng tich eye hay tieu cyc ciia nhap cu den phat triln kinh te, xa hdi ciia noi den cd the bj anh hudng bdi nhieu yeu td nhu cae dac trang ca nhan cua ngudi di cu, nhflng anh hudng khach quan to ben ngoai tdi hanh vi di cu De cd dugc danh gia chinh xac hon ve tac ddng "thyc" cua di cu, tich tu dan sd tdi cac van de kinh te, xa hdi, hdi quy logistic da bien (multinominal logistics regression) da dugc su' dung de phan tieh nhftng nhan td anh hudng den y kien danh gia cua ngudi di cu cflng nhu nhiing yeu td cd the frd lyc hut hoac lyc day eho cac ddng di cu tiep theo Phuang ttinh hdi quy dugc su dung cd dang: Nghien cira khdng danh gia tryc tiep anh hudng cua di cu den phat trien kinh te - xa hdi ma danh gia thdng qua y kien cua ngudi di cu ve tac ddng tich eye va tieu cyc ciia di cu den phat trien kinh te, xa hdi tai dja phuong noi den Ket qua phan tich khdng nhung phan anh nhung tac ddng thyc ctia di cu ma edn cho biet dupe nhan thuc ciia ngudi di cu ve boat ddng di chuyen eua minh, ddng thdi nhflng thdng tin se giup udc lupng dugc ddng lyc di cu cua hg ttong thdi gian tiep theo Bp du lieu ditng cho phan tich thu dugc to' dieu tra cua Vien Dan sd va cac van de xa hdi, Tradng Dai hpc Kinh te qudc dan thing 12 nam 2014 dudi sy tai trg cua Quy Khoa hpc - Cdng nghe qudc gia (Nafosted) Trong dieu tra nay, Ddng Nai va Binh Duong la bai tinh dien hinh cua -vitng Ddng Nam Bp dugc chgn lam dja ban nghien citu Bang hdi ban cau true dugc thyc hien vdi nhflng ngudi di cu to 15 - 60 todi, den bai tinh frong 10 nam qua, hien dang lam viec d ea khu 'vyc chinh thirc va phi chinh thirc Quy md mau dugc xac djnh dua vao cdng thu'c tinh mau biet tdng the mau (tdng sd ngudi di dan den cac dja ban nghien cira theo ket qua Tdng dieu tia Dan sd va Nha d nam 2009), vdi dp tin cay thdng ke dat 95%) Quy md mau can thiet la 700 don vj Mdi tinh cd 350 ngudi di cu dugc dieu tra, khoang 70%o ngudi nhap cu den khu vyc chinh tbtic, 30%) ngudi nhap cu den khu vyc phi chinh thirc Phuong phap chgn man phan tang, ngau nhien he thdng da dugc ap dung Tac dpng cua nbap cu, tich to dan sd nhanh den kinh te, xa hdi d Ddng Nam Bd dupe phan tich tren ca sd y kien danh gia cua chinh ngudi di cu ve nhiing nhan dinh dupe neu (Bang I) Nhiing nhan djnh dugc phat hien so bd to nghien eun djnh tinh kham pha trade dd Cau hdi dugc dat de yeu ciu ngudi di cu lupng hda cac tac dpng la: "Theo anh chi nhiing dong gdp cita nguai di cu theo cdc phucmg dn di xudt du&i day a miec dp quan trgng nhu thi ndoT Vdi mdi phuang an dugc dl xuit, miie danh gia (to din 5) dugc ngudi di cu xac So 231 thing 9/2016 Log ( P; Vj )=tty+ PijXi+ PijX2+ + Eij Cac bien sd ddc lap dugc dua vao md hinh phan tich hdi quy cd the chia nhdm nhu sau: Nhdm 1: Cdc yen td liin quan din chinh sdch di cu, gdm chinh sach lien quan den hd khau bd tjch, cac chinh sach lien quan den cung cap djch -vti xa hpi cdng nhu: dien, nudc, giao due va y te cdng Nhdm 2: Cdc yiu td thudc ve cpng ddng, gdm mang ludi xa hdi, vdn xa hdi, sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi cita dja phuang nai den (cung ve viee lam, tiep can cac djch cdng nhu dien, nudc, y te, giao due ) Nhdm 3: Cdc yeu td thupc cd nhdn ngieai di cu gdm: todi, gidi tinh, trinh trang hdn nhan, trinh dp hpc van phd thdng, trinh dp chuyen mdn, tinli trang viec lam, ITnh -vyc kinh te, noi lam viec, thu nhap, que gdc Tich tu dan so nhanh is Dong Nam Bo Ket qua cae Tdng dieu tra Dan sd va Nha d cac nam 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 va Dilu tra giua ky nam 2014 cho thay giai doan 1979-1989, sau Tay Nguyen, Ddng Nam Bd da la -vung cd tdc dp tang dan sd cao nhat, 2,7%)/nam Tich tu dan sd bat dau dien d Ddng Nam Bd tit nhiing nam 1989, sau Viet Nam thyc hien ehinh sach Ddi Mdi, xay dung cac khu cdng nghiep va thu hiit dau ta nudc ngoai Trong 10 nam tu 1989-1999, dan sd khu 'vyc Ddng 35 IIU Bang 1: Cac biln s6 flanh gia tac dong cua nhap cu, tich tu dan s6 nhanh Danh gia tac dong tieu cue Danh gia tac dong tich cue ND + Gop phan vao phat frien cac nganh nghe + Gop phan lam tang that nghiep + Sau co thu nhap tit tilp tac tai dau ta vln cho phat ttiln san xuit, kinh doanh + Gdp phin bu dip thieu hut lao dpng + Lam cho ngu'di dia phuang giau len vi co the kinh doanh cac loai hinh dich vu (thue nha d, thue tre ) + Phat huy hieu qua ctia he thong y te -I- Lam qua tai he thong tang giao thdng + Phat huy hieu qua cua he thong giao due + Lam qua tai he thong y te + Mang din nai day net dep van hoa + Lam qua tai he thing giao due + Gay mit trat ta xa hpi ngudi di cu hay gay roi, danh + Hay uIng ragu va lai xe gay tai nan giao thong + Hay vi pham luat giao thong, di lai "bira bai" X + Ngudi di cu gdp phan lam tang cac berth lay trayin qua dudng tinh due quan he tinh due khong an toan + Ngudi di cu liy cip cua gay Ion xpn xa hoi Bang Quy mo dan s6 cac vimg 6" Viet Nam qua cae nam 1979-2014 Bon vi: Nghin ngucri TT 1989 1999 2009 2014 8.069 10.242 11.053 11.065 11.633 1979 Viing kinh te xa hoi Mien niii va trang du Bac Bp Dong bang song Hong 11.445 13.784 16.834 19.578 20.649 Bac Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang 13.080 15.459 16.536 18.836 19.482 Tay Nguyen 1.529 2.512 4.060 5.107 5.504 Dong Nam Bp 6.276 7.987 11.710 14.025 15.721 Dong bang song Cim Long 12.341 14.428 16.131 17.179 17.501 Toan quoc 52.742 64.412 85.789 90.493 76.323 Nguon: Tdng hap tie so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke Nam Bd da tang to 7.987 nghin ngudi len 11.710 Mat dp dan s l vung Ddng Nam Bd da tang to 265 nghin ngudi, tdc dp tang trang binh giai doan ngu'di/km^ nam 1979 len 333 ngudi/km^ nam 1989; naylentdi4,7%)/nam D a y l a t h d i k y m a D d n g N a m 434 ngudi/km- nam 1999 va 594 ngudi/km^ nam Bp cd tdc dp tang tradng dan sl Idn nhit Budc sang 2009 Nhu vay, mu'c dp tap trang dan tren mdt don giai doan 1999-2009, quy md dan s l vimg Ddng vj dien tich lanh tho tai 'viing da tang 2,23 lan Nam Bp da tang len tdi 14.025 nghin ngudi, vdi tic 30 nam, frong mite tang trang binh cua dp tang trang binh 2,0%/nam Tinh din I toan quie la 1,6 lin thang nam 2014, quy md dan sl cua vung la Tich to dan s l d Ddng Nam bp chu ylu la 15.721 nghin ngudi, tdc dp tang dan s l trang binh nhap cu Trong giai doan 2004-2009, ty suit nhap giai doan 2009-2014 la 2,23% (Bang va bang 3) cu d vung gip lin so vdi ty suit nhap cu vao Sd 231 thing 9/2016 35 Bang T6C tang dan s6 cac viing cua Viet Nam cac glal doan 1979-2014 Dan vi: phdn trdm TT 19791989 26,9 20,4 18,2 64,2 27,3 16,9 22,1 Vimg kinh te xa h6i Mien nui va trang du BSC Bp Dong bang song Hong Bic Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang Tay Nguyen Dong Nam Bp Ddng bang song Cira Long Toan quoc Nguon: Tong hap tie so lieu cita Tong cite Thong ke 19891999 7,9 22,1 7,0 61,6 46,6 11,8 18,5 19992009 20092014 6,1 16,3 5,1 5,3 3,4 7,3 11,1 1,8 5,3 13,9 25,8 19,8 6,5 12,4 Bang 4: Ty suat di dan thuan qua cac nam, cac giai doan 2004-2014 Don vi: phan nghin 2004- 2009- Trang du va mien nui phia Bac -17,5 -3,9 -3,3 -2,6 -2,3 Dong bang song Hong 0,5 0,9 0,2 -0,3 -8,1 0,3 Bac Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang -1,7 -34,6 -5,7 -4,0 -4,4 -1,7 -15,0 Tay Nguyen 11,2 -0,3 -2,4 3,7 Dong Nam Bp 107,7 19,9 14,8 11,7 2,1 8,3 56,9 Dong bang sdng Cira Long -40,4 -8,4 -6,5 -5,0 -4,3 -29,7 34,5 205,3 6,7 30,4 2009 2011 2013 Vung kinh te xa hoi * Binh Duong * Dong Nai 2010 2012 TT 314,4 74,6 42,7 48,9 60,8 16,3 22,1 12,5 2014 1,0 Nguon: Tong htyp tit so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke vimg: vung Trang du va mien nui phia Bac, 'vung Bac Trang bd va Duyen hai mien Trang va •vung Ddng bang sdng Cira Long (135%o so vdi I5,9%)o; 16,0%o va 16,3%oo), gap lan so vdi ty suat nhap eu cua -vung Ddng bang sdng Hdng (35%oo), tham chi gap lan ty suat nbap cu den Tay Nguyen (43,3%)o) dau phat trien dan manh len, cung cd the tac ddng cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau tac ddng vao boat ddng san xuat ndi tai cua vitng Cac gia thuyet se can phai dugc kiem nghiem Xem xet ty suat di cu thuan toy qua cac giai doan cho thay giai doan 2004-2009, frong kbi cac vflng cd ty suat di cu tbuan toy mang dau (-), cd nghTa la sd ngudi xuat cu di nhieu bon sd ngudi tihap cu den, hay ty suat d Tay Nguyen ehi la lI,2%oo thi ty suat d Ddng Nam Bd la 107,7%)o Dieu cho thay, Ddng Nam Bd thyc sy la -viing thu hut ngudi di eu den ldn nhat d Viet Nam Quan sat cho thay nhflng nam gan day ty suat di dan thuan toy den -vimg cd xu hudng giam di, I9,9%)o nam 2010, giam cdn 14,8%o nam 2011; ll,7%o nam 2012 va 8,3%o nam 2013; ty suit di dan nam 2009-2014 cung giam cdn 56,9%)o (Bang 4) Nguyen nhan cd the la su:c hiit cua vung da suy giam cae vflng khac da bit 5.1.1 Y kiin ddnh gid cua ngu&i di cu vi tdc dpng din kinh ti Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 Tac dong den cac van de Idnh te, xa hoi 5.1 Tdc dpng den kinh ti Ve tac dpng tich cyc, khoang tren dudi 70%) ngudi di cu dugc dieu tra da danh gia di dan lam eho tich to dan sd nhanh, tac ddng manh den phat trien kinb te dja phuang noi den Theo hp, ddng gdp manh nhat cua di cu tai vung den la giup ngudi dan dia phuang giau len phat trien cac djch -vu (72,7%)), thir hai la bii dap thieu hyt lao ddng (71,4%)), thit ba la tiep toe tai dau to vdn cho phat trien san xuat (70,5%o) va thu' to la gdp phan phat trien cac nganh nghe (68,5%)) (Hinh I) Ve tac ddng tieu cyc, 68,0% ngudi duac dieu tra da nhan djnh nhap cu lam gia tang tinh trang that 37 Hinh 1: Ty le nguoi dl cu co y kiln danh gia tac dong cua dl cudil voi phat triin kinh ti d dja phuong la quan I 72.7 Lam cho nguai dja phuang giau len vi co the kinh doanh cac loai hinh dich vu (thue nha a, thue ttong I 71.4 Gop phan bii dip thigu hut lao dong a nai day ~1 70.5 Gop phjn vao phat ttiin cac nganh nghe a nai day Sau c6 thu nliap t6t tilp tuc tai d§u tu von cho phatttiSnsan xuit, kinh doanh tai nai day 61.1 68.0 G6p phin lam tang thit nghiep a nai day DOTI vi: % Nguon: Diiu tra cUa Vien Ddn so vd cdc vdn dexd hpi (2015) nghiep d noi din, nguy co dugc mdt ty le cao (72,1%) ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to thg bac ba frd xudng danh gia quan frpng 5.1.2 Nhiing nhdn td dnh hu&ng y kiin ddnh gid cda nguai di cie ve tdc dpng tiri kinh ti D I I vdi y kiln danh gia tac ddng tich cyc, ket qua phan tich hli quy cho thay ddi togng dieu fra la can bd quan ly va thg bac trd len nhan dinh mirc dp ddng gdp ciia hp cho kinh te d dja phuang it quan trpng hem ngud'i di cu la lao ddng to Ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to thg bac trd xudng lai cho rang minh gdp phan vao phat trien kinh te d dja phuang cao hon so vdi lao dpng to' Cd the thay la tinh kha dung cua lao ddng di cu d khu vyc Ddng Nam Bd mdi chi dupe phat huy manh ddi vdi lao dpng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to bac trd xudng Xem xet cac yeu td thupc ve cdng ddng thi thay nhiing ngudi cho rang "cac chu doanh nghiep it chii y den dao tao cdng nhan" hay "khdng cd nhieu trang tam day nghe" hay "he thdng benh vien tdt" lai danh gia ddng gdp ciia ngudi di cu den kinh tl ctia dia phuong la quan trpng Xem xet ylu t l mang ludi xa hdi ctia ngudi di cu cho phep nhan djnh ring, nhung ngudi khdng dupe hoac khdng cin nhd gidi thieu viec lam hay hd trp nha d va cac dilu kien sinh boat khac da danh gia su dong gdp cua ngudi di cu cho kinh te ctia dja phuang nai den quan trpng ban so vdi ngudi di cu da dupe ngu'di di cu di tra'dc gidi thieu viec lam, hd trp noi d cd y nghTa quan trgng ban so vdi nhflng ngudi di cu khdng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn Phai chang lao ddng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn "khdng dugc trpng dung" tai Ddng Nam Bd ciu lao dgng cua -vimg ve lao ddng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn van khdng cao San xuit vin chi dya tren edng nghe can nhieu lao ddng trinh dp thip va gia luong re N I U ngudi di cu cd quan niem nay, hp rat de cd xu hudng rdi khdi day di noi khac hoac quay ve que cfl Nhflng ngudi di cu hien dang phai lam viee tren 40 gid/toan cung dua nhan djnh eao ban nhdm ngudi di cu chi lam viec dudi 40 gid/toan Nhflng ngudi lam viec tai doanh nghiep hoac co sd lao ddng to nhan danh gia tac dpng tieu eye cao nhat, xep hang thir hai la nhung ngudi lam doanh nghiep d nudc ngoai Chi rieng nhdm ngudi lam d cac cdng ty hoac doanh nghiep cd phan la cd y kien danh gia ngugc lai Nhflng ngudi di cu cho rang mdi tradng sdng khdng tdt cung danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua di cu den kinh te manh hon Nhung ngudi khdng dugc trg giiip tim viec lam hoac chd d hoac khdng dugc giiip dd cho vay tien danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc ciia di cu tdi kinh te manh hon Xem xet cac yeu td lien quan den boa nhap cdng ddng, nhung ngudi quen than vdi ngudi ban dja va tham gia sinh boat cdng dpng danh gia anh hudng tieu cyc it ban nhiing ngudi khdng tham gia sinh boat cdng ddng 5.2 Tdc dpng din xd hpi Ddi vdi y kiln danh gia tac dpng neu cyc, hiu hit nhung ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn cao (tii' sa cap, cao dang, dai hpc) danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 38 5.2.1 Y kiin ddnh gid cita nguai di cu vi tdc dpng din xd hpi Tac dgng tieh cue v l xa hdi ciia ngudi di eu den dja phuang noi din dugc khao sat lien quan den y Hinh 2: Ty le ngudi dl cu co y kiin danh gia tac dong ciia dl cu dil voi phat triin xa hoi d dja phuotig la quan Mang den nai day net dep van hoa 49.4 Phat huy hieu qua cua he thong giao due nai day D 53.9 Phat huy hieu qua ciia he thong y te a nai day U 54.8 Gop phan lam tang cac benh LTQDTD quan he D 78.1 Lam qua tai he thong giao due noi day ] 76.8 Lam qua tai he thong y te tai noi day D 72.4 Lam qua tai he thong tang giao thong I 70.4 Hay vi pham luat giao thong, di lai "bira bai" D 74.7 Hay uong m'oai va lai xe gay tai nan giao thong L D 72.8 Gay mat trat tir xa hoi nai day ngirtri di cu hay I D 72.5 Nguai di cu lay cap ciia gay Ion xon xa hoi i D 35.2 Nguon: Dieu tra cita Vien Ddn so vd cdc vdn dexd hpi (2015) te, giao dye va cae net dep ve van boa Ket qua cho thay mirc tac ddng den xa hdi dugc danh gia thap hon so vdi tac ddng ve kinh te Ddng gdp tich cyc ve xa hdi dugc danh gia quan trpng nhat la "ngudi di cu giup phat huy hieu qua cua he thdng y te (54,8%)), tiep den la "giup phat huy hieu qua ciia he thdng giao due (53,9%)) Khoang 50% ngudi cd y kien danh gia la ngudi di cu mang den noi mdi net dep van hoa Ngudi di cu danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua di cu den phat trien xa bdi d noi den manh han so vdi tac ddng tich cyc (tren 70%o so vdi tren 50%)) "Gdp phan lam tang cac berth lay trayen qua dudng tinh due cd nhflng quan he tinh due khdng an toan" la tac ddng dupe danh gia quan trpng vdi mdt ty le cao nhat (78,1%)) Nhdm thit hai la cac tac ddng "Lam qua tai he thdng giao dye" (76,8%); "Lam qua tai he thdng y te " (72,4%)) Nhdm thir ba dupe ti'en 70%o ngudi di cu danh gia la quan trpng gdm "Hay vi pham luat giao thdng" (74,7%); "Hay udng ragu, lai xe gay tai nan" (72,8%) va "Gay mat trat to xa hdi hay gay rli, danh nhau" (72,5%)) Chi cd 35,2%) ngudi dugc phdng van danh gia ngudi di cu da tac ddng tieu cyc den xa hdi "trdm cap dd cua va gay ldn xdn xa hdi" ngudi di cu cd tac ddng den y kien danh gia Lao ddng to do, lao ddng hd gia dinh va ngu'di ed trinh dp chuyen mdn to bac trd xudng danh gia di cu cd tac ddng tich cyc den cac ITnh -vyc xa hdi manh hon nhfl'ng ngu'di cd trinh dp chuyen mdn va nghe nghiep cao Ket qua cho thay chi cd nhiing ngudi di cu cd trinh dp hpc van, chuyen mdn, nghe nghiep cao mdi nhin thay "ap lyc" ctia di cu ddi vdi xa hpi d noi den Vdi nhan thitc nay, quyet djnh di cu cua nhung ngudi cd trinh dp hpc van, chuyen mdn, nghe nghiep cao se "khd khan" hon Nhung ngudi cd thu nhap cang cao thi danh gia anh hudng tich cyc cua di cu den xa hdi d nai den cang cao Lien quan den yeu td quan niem xa hdi, nhiing ngudi di cu cho la cd it nha may cdng trudng, it cdng ty nudc ngoai d dja phuang noi den lai danh gia di cu ddng gdp tich cyc cho phat trien xa hdi cao hon Nhflng ngudi cho rang djch vy cupc sdng d nai den ehua tdt danh gia ddng gdp cua di cu vao cac tac ddng xa hdi mang tinh tich cue cao hon, vi chinh hg da gdp phan cai thien dich -vu cudc sdng tai noi den ddnh gid Lien quan den yeu td mang ludi xa hdi, nhiing ngudi di cu duac trp giup ve chd d hay nhflng ngudi khdng can trg giup tam ly, khdng can trg giiip ve an ninh danh gia ddng gdp tich cyc cua di cu den phat trien xa hdi d noi den manh ban Ve y kien ddnh gid tdc dpng tich cue, kit qua phan tich hdi quy cho thay ngbl nghiep hien tai cua Lien quan den yeu td hoa nhap xa hdi, nhiing ngudi kem hda nhap vdi cdng ddng nai den lai danh gia ddng gdp tich cyc ctia di cu tdi phat trien xa hdi 5.2.2 Nhirng nhdn td dnh hied-ngykiin ciia nguai di cu vi tdc dpng tai xd hpi Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 39 III! manh hon Cd thi kem hda nhap cdng ddng, den kinh tl, xa hdi cua dja phuang Tac ddng tich thieu thdng tin ma ngudi di cu cho rang hp lam phat eye ve kinh te dugc danh gia manh ban tac ddng ve huy hieu qua ciia he thdng y te va giao due tai noi xa hdi Theo y kiln eua khoang 2/3 ngudi di eu, din Thyc tl, tai vung Ddng Nam Bd he thdng giao ddng gdp manh nhat cua di cu tai vimg den la giiip due dang chju nhiing "ap luc" to tich tu dan sd ngudi dan dja phuang giau len phat tiien cae nhanh Nhieu tradng tieu hpc, trang hpe ca sd phai djch -vy, tiep den la bii dap thieu hyt lao ddng, sau hpc ca lien tac hoac phai nang sy sd hpc sinh cho cd thu nhap tit va In djnh cudc sdng, ngudi di mdt Idp cu lai dung vln tiet kiem tiep toe tai dau to vdn eho Ve y kiin ddnh gid tdc dpng tiiu cue, nhdm phat triln san xuat va gdp phan phat trien cac nganh yeu td thudc dac trung nhan khau hpc, chi cd bien nghi Mdt gdc dp nao dd, di cu den cflng giiip phat sd "nai lam viec" la cd y nghTa thdng ke Nhung huy hieu qua he thdng y te noi den, giup phat huy danh gia tac dpng tieu cyc den xa hdi ciia ngudi di hieu qua cua he thdng giao due vdi nhieu loai hinh cu Idn nhat la d nhdm ngudi lao ddng to va lao giao dye dugc md de dap img nhu cau hpc tap eiia dpng gia dinb, cdng nhan va can bd quan ngudi dan Khoang mgt nira sd ngudi cho rang ly lam viec cac khu cdng nghiep danh gia anh ngu'di di cu mang den noi mdi net dep van boa hudng tieu cue ve xa hdi it hon Tuy nhien, ben eanh dd, khoang hon 2/3 sd ngudi Trong nhdm cac yeu td lien quan den quan diem cho rang ngudi di cu gdp phan lam tang cac benh ve phat trien kinh te, xa hdi va cdng ddng, neu ngudi lay trayen qua dudng tinh due cd nhung quan he di cu cho la "khdng dupe chu doanh nghiep quan tinh due khdng an toan; lam qua tai he thdng giao tam dao tao" danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua ngudi due; lam qua tai be thdng y te; hay vi pham luat giao di cu den xa hdi ldn hon Nhung ngudi cd quan thdng; hay udng ragu, lai xe gay tai nan; gay mit diem "djch vu cudc sdng d nai den tdt va cd nhilu trat to xa hdi hay gay rdi, danh Chi co khu vui choi giai tri" hay "he thing berth vien va y khoang 1/3 ngudi di cu danh gia ngudi di cu da tac te xa/phudng tdt" da cho rang ngudi di cu cd anh dpng tieu eye den xa hdi trdm eip dl eua huong tieu cue den cac van de xa hdi d mite thip va gay ldn xdn xa hdi d noi eu tni mdi Lien quan den mang ludi xa hpi, nhdm ngudi di 6.2 Hdm y chinh sdch cu khdng nhan dugc dupe hd trp vl nha d va cac trg Tit cac ket luan tren, nhdm nghien cuu dl xuit giiip khac danh gia tac ddng cua ngudi di cu din xa hpi theo hudng tieu cyc nhieu ban Nhung ngudi mdt sd ham y chinh sach sau: can sy trg giup ve tam ly danh gia ngudi di cu mang Can tinh toan cac ddng lyc di cu gifla cae vimg va den nhieu anh hudng tieu cue cho xa hpi hon nhflng nhap cu vao Ddng Nam Bd thdi gian tdi dl ngudi khdng can su trg giup Nhdm ngudi xay dyng kl hoach va chinh sach sit dung lao ddng khdng nhan dugc su trp giup vl an ninh, tranh xam phil hgp vdi cac muc tieu phat triln kinh tl - xa hpi pham danh gia di cu cd anh hudng tieu cue din xa chung cda dat nudc va cua vung Ddng Nam Bd hdi manh nhat Nhung ngudi di cu cd quan he than Tao dieu kien de ngudi lao ddng nbap cu din dja thilt vdi ngudi dan ban dja danh gia di cu it cd anh phuong cd the hda nhap cdng ding thdng qua viec hudng tieu cyc tdi xa hpi ban van ddng hp tham gia sinh hoat ddng ding va trg Kit luan va mgt sl ham y chinh sach giup td chitc cac cudc giao luu giita ngudi dan dja 6.1 Kit luan phuang va ngudi di cu Ddng Nam Bp la vung cd tic dp thj hda, cdng Uy ban nhan dan va Sd Lao ddng ciia cac nghiep hda va miic dp tich to dan sl nhanh nhit tinh/thanh phd ddn tiep lao ddng cin lien he vdi cac ca nudc nhung nam vita qua Mtt'c dp doanh nghiep de nim bit nhu ciu lao ddng thyc tl tich tu dan sl vao vung Ddng Nam Bp diln manh va lap cac trang tam gidi thieu viec lam cung nhat vao giai doan 2004-2009 Budc sang giai doan cap thdng tin den rdng rai ngudi lao ddng ndi 2009-2014, mirc dp tich ta dan sl cd xu hudng giam chung va lao ddng di eu Cin lap cac co quan, dan song van din diu cac vung ca nudc bd phan cdng tac xa hdi dl dap img nhu ciu trg giup Dudi gdc nhin cua chinh ban than ngudi di cu, tam ly va bao ve anb ninh cho ngudi lao dgng ndi ngudi dieu din nhilu da gdp phin tac dpng tich cyc chung va ngudi di eu mdi ndi rieng O Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 40 Ldi thira nhSn/cam on: Nghien cuu dugc tai trg bdi Quy Phat triln Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe qudc gia (NAFOSTED) d l tai ma s l II.6.2-2012.01 Tai lifu tham khao Dang Nguyen Anh (1997), 'Vg vai tto di cu nong thon - thi su nghiep phat trien nong thon hien nay', Tgp chiXa hpi hoc, 4/1997, 15-20 Dang Nguyen Anh (1998), 'Di cu va phat trien frong boi canh doi moi kinh te - xa hpi cua dat nuac', Tgp chi Xd hpi hoc, 1/1998, 3-12 Dang Nguyen Anh (1999), 'Di dan va quan ly di dan giai doan phat frien mai: Mpt so suy nghT to goc dp nghien cmi', Tgp chiXd hpi hoc, 3&4/1999, 39-44 Dang Nguyen Anh (2005), 'Chieu canh giai cua di dan lao dpng thai ky cong nghiep h6a va hien dai hoa dat nudc', Tgp chiXa hpi hoc, 2/2005, 23-32 Laing, D., Park, C & Wang, P (2005), 'Chapter 11 A Modified Han-is-Todaro Model of Rural-Urban Migration for China', in Critical Issues in China's Growth and Development, Yum K Kwan and Eden S.H Yu, City University of Hong Kong, Published by Ashgate Publishing Limited, England Le'wis, W.A (1954), Economic Development with Unlimited supplies of labour The Manchester School, UK, 401449 Tong cue Thong ke (2010), Tong dieu tra Ddn so vdNhda Viet Nam 1.4.2009: Nhieng ket qud chit yeu,^haxa3thhn Thong ke, Ha Noi Tong ciic Thong ke (2015j, Dieu tra Ddn so vd Nhd a giiia ky thai diem ngdy 1.4.2014: Cdc ket qud chit yeu, Nha xuat ban Thong ke Ha Npi UN Viet Nam (2010), Di cu nu&e: Ca hpi vd thdch thiec doi vcri sie phdt trien kinh te-xa hpi a Viet Nam, Ha Npi Uy ban eac van de xa hpi cua Quoc hoi khoa XI (2005), Ddnh gid chinh sdch di ddn tai thi, Bao cao ket qua nghien cim, Ha Npi Vien nghien cim kinh te Thanh Ho Chi Minh (1996), D; ddn, nguon nhdn luc, viee ldm vd thi hod a thdnh Ho Chi Minh, Nha xuat ban Chinh trj quoc gia Ha Npi Zhu, N (2002), 'Impacts of Income Gap on Migration Decision in China: A Verification of the Todaro Model', China Economic Review, 13 (2002), 213-230 Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 41 ... ngudi di cu cho kinh te ctia dja phuang nai den quan trpng ban so vdi ngudi di cu da dupe ngu 'di di cu di tra'dc gidi thieu viec lam, hd trp noi d cd y nghTa quan trgng ban so vdi nhflng ngudi di. .. trg giup Dudi gdc nhin cua chinh ban than ngudi di cu, tam ly va bao ve anb ninh cho ngudi lao dgng ndi ngudi dieu din nhilu da gdp phin tac dpng tich cyc chung va ngudi di eu mdi ndi rieng O... dd thj Viet Nam, lien quan din tac ddng cua di cu dii vdi cdng ding noi din, nhieu nghien eun nhan manh tim quan trpng ciia ngudi di cu viec bd sung ngudn lao ddng phuc vu phat trien kinh te va