Detection of actual and assessment of potential plantations in Lao PDR using GIS and remote sensing technologies doc

Rubber in Laos Detection of actual and assessment of potential plantations in Lao PDR using GIS and remote sensing technologies Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bern vorgelegt von: Kaspar Hurni 2008 Leiter der Arbeit: Prof Dr Urs Wiesmann Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern ii Rubber in Laos Detection of actual and assessment of potential plantations in Lao PDR using GIS and remote sensing technologies Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Bern vorgelegt von Kaspar Hurni 2008 Leiter der Arbeit: Prof Dr Urs Wiesmann Co-Leiter: Dr Andreas Heinimann Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern ii Preface During my studies I had the chance to work as a tutorial assistant within the NCCR North-South at the Centre for Development and Environment of the Institute of Geography at the University of Bern It was a huge opportunity to gain insight into the research context of the NCCR North-South and obtain some practical experience Most of my knowledge and skills regarding GIS and Remote Sensing technologies were attained during this employment Besides the administrative work I could also participate in more research-related tasks where I got in touch for the first time (although only digitally) with Laos I performed a classification of satellite imagery in order to map land cover changes, which was part of a study assessing land cover changes in the lower Mekong region When later on the decision on the topic of my diploma thesis came closer, I opted for a work in context with Laos, as it was a chance to visit a country for two months that I previously only knew through satellite imagery Besides the opportunity to travel to Laos, the motivation for this thesis is mainly based on giving a contribution to the current research on rubber in Laos Considering the amount of newly established rubber plantations in the recent years, research on the topic is indispensable regarding decision-making and elaboration of development strategies Using my GIS and Remote Sensing competence and my fascination for the possibilities offered by spatial data and modelling approaches, I hope being able to add to the current research, or at least provide some thought-provoking impulses Besides the institutional support acknowledged below many people contributed to this study in various ways First I would like to thank Professor Urs Wiesmann, the leader of the thesis His professorship at the University of Bern and his functions within the CDE and the NCCR North-South provided the background for various studies and research projects in Southeast Asia and thus enabled my research in Laos My thanks go also to Dr Andreas Heinimann, the co-leader of my thesis, who was, already during my time as tutorial assistant, my mentor regarding GIS and Remote Sensing technologies While working on the thesis his inputs on various levels and the motivational words were indispensable I am also very thankful for the support I received from Dr Peter Messerli He works in the research project on “Contextuality of Development Interventions” in Laos, and was the contact during the time I spent in Laos He introduced me to several people and institutions in Laos and was very supportive in specifying the direction of my research at the initial stage My acknowledgements go to Mr Sangkhane who joined me for the field trip His assistance during the interviews, knowledge on the Lao culture and the ability to contact people was very helpful Additionally I would like to mention Mr Mike Dwire and Mr Phaythoune Pilakone who were very obliging in terms of sharing information and resources iii My thanks go also to my parents, Marlies and Hans, who supported me throughout my studies and provided many inputs regarding the success of my research Your motivational stimulus, thought-provoking impulses and corrections helped me a lot Additionally I would like to thank Brigitte Portner for her skills and help regarding editing and the use of Microsoft Word, Daniel Loppacher for his advices on administrational processes and various discussions, and Adrian Weber with whom the work and leisure time in Laos was fun to spend with Finally, my thanks go to all the co-workers and the student body for their advices and talks, and my friends where I could recharge during my off time However, you are too many to be named in person Kaspar Hurni, August 2008 iv Acknowledgements The cornerstones for my research activities in Laos are on the one hand the funding and network provided by the National Centre for Competence in Research North-South and, on the other hand, the support I received from various individuals The present study is performed within the context of research projects of the Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) at the Institute of Geography of the University of Berne The CDE is the executive agency of the NCCR North-South and involved in various research themes, projects and networks all over the globe One of these projects is located in Laos and performs research on the contextuality of development interventions The local institution this project is related to is the Lao National Mekong Commission Secretariat (LNMCS) Within the framework of these three institutions the research on rubber in Laos is performed During my stay in Laos the LNMCS was the main contact, while back in Switzerland the work was performed at the CDE while the NCCR North-South provided the funding and network In Laos other Institutions contributed to this thesis, too, mainly by sharing information and data These are namely: The National Geographic Department (NGD), the National Land Management Authority (NLMA), the National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Ecotourism Laos and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) v vi Contents Images Figures xiv Tables xiv Equations xiii xv 1.1 Rubber in Laos 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Introduction Hypotheses Approaches and methods 13 2.1 Approaches to assess the rubber dynamics 13 2.2 Fieldwork 13 2.3 Classification of satellite images 14 2.3.1 Choice of Remote Sensing data 15 2.3.2 Preparation of Remote Sensing data 16 2.3.3 Object- versus pixel-based classification 17 2.4 Input data used to model the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations 2.5 18 Fuzzy systems 22 Results 3.1 25 Rubber detection on medium-resolution imagery (ASTER) in Northern Laos 3.1.1 Characteristics of the Rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) 25 3.1.2 Rubber classification on satellite images 27 3.1.3 Analysis of land use and land cover changes 3.2 25 34 A spatial assessment of the potential development of rubber plantations in Laos 51 3.2.1 Reasons for the necessity of potential rubber mapping in Laos 3.2.2 Factor selection for the rubber suitability models 51 52 3.2.3 Three scenarios of the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations in Laos 67 vii Conclusions and recommendations 83 4.1 Conclusions on rubber 83 4.2 Conclusions on methods 84 4.2.1 Satellite image classification conclusions 84 4.2.2 Modelling conclusions 85 4.3 Conclusions on hypotheses 87 4.4 Research-relevant recommendations 88 4.5 Policy-relevant recommendations 89 4.6 Recommendations for development cooperation 91 References Annex viii 93 99 Conclusions and recommendations tion data Another point concerns the interactions between the independent variables They can influence each other in a way that both show little to no correlation with the dependent variable even if considering them separately would reveal a correlation In the study at hand this occurred when including two different accessibility assumptions in the model Accessibility to China is directed northwards while the province accessibility is directed southwards within the study region With both showing opposing directions they were not able to explain the land cover changes even if for both accessibility assumptions the land cover changes generally occurred on accessible areas Prior analysis and considerations on the data to be included in the model could overcome this problem Results from the logistic regression model were used for the modelling of the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations Methodologically, the use of fuzzy logic was the appropriate approach, as it allows including uncertainties in the analysis On national level the different scenarios reveal the effects of the policy implementations on the potential distribution of rubber The “maximum protection” and the “no conservation scenario” both represent the “extremes” and thus the policy implementation was easy to include It was more difficult to develop the “current policy scenario”, when the present policy implementations had to be modelled As “villagers, sometimes even DAFO staff, seem unable to recognize and be clear about the definitions of land-use types and management rights, or the function of each type of land use”(Phengsopha & Morimoto, 2004: 4), the assumptions on the current policy implementations are included in the model in a rather general way With the regional disparities within Laos and the different influences from outside of Laos, a regional modelling of the policies would be more appropriate Effects of the policies between the regions and on other use functions as ecotourism could be better assessed 4.5 Policy-relevant recommendations When looking at the recent history the rubber dynamic experienced in Laos at the moment poses both, chances and dangers for socio-economic development The economic reform in Laos in the mid-1980s removed barriers to internal trade, labour, and capital mobility In general these measures are favourable to regional economic growth: the integration of the Lao economy into the Southeast Asian Region already affected patterns of provincial development, as can be seen from the high number of rubber plantations in northern Laos With the economic opening the surrounding countries as for example China suddenly had access to vast areas of apparently unproductive forest land On the background of the all time high rubber price on the global market and the high Chinese demand these regional disparities developed a high dynamic regarding the establishment of new rubber plantations in Laos On the one hand this is a good opportunity to foster socio-economic development, especially in the rather poor northern regions of Laos where the GDP is approximately 62% lower than in the central regions Income from rubber can raise the people’s living standard and when looking at the sixth socio-economic development plan (2006-2010) the goals of poverty alleviation and eradication of shifting cultivation can be tackled, too 89 Rubber in Laos On the other hand, relying too heavily on the industrial crop rubber, creates one-sided dependencies from China and the global market With a decline of the rubber prices or the Chinese demand, the income of the rural population is going to fall, with detrimental effects on socio-economic development Another problem concerns the environment: With large areas of forest land being converted to rubber plantations most other use functions of the area that are linked to biodiversity are displaced This concerns mainly ecotourism and the collection of non-timber forest products, which provides an important income to the rather poor families Additionally the effect of the biodiversity of the Laotian forests on the whole Lower Mekong Region is unknown Conversion of large forest areas could thus affect more than just the river runoff within a watershed as observed by smallholders planting rubber In order to foster socio-economic development, secure the income of the rural population and to minimize dependencies the following policy relevant recommendations have been formulated: • Clarify the definitions of land use types and management rights on village level, as sometimes even the staff from the agriculture and forestry offices is not clear about it Having clear definitions about management rights enables to use the potential of rubber while still maintaining other activities in the protected forests as ecotourism and collection of non-timber forest products This prevents to some degree from environmental degradation and increases diversification which rather assures the income • Improve accessibility where needed With accessibility being a major determinant of land use and land cover change, the presence or absence of a road can thus have implications on the socio-economic development and the environment (Verburg et al., 2004) Within Laos two different levels of accessibility can be considered: One level concerns the accessibility of cultivation land from the villages and can have an effect on the degree the protection laws are observed In general, villagers respect the conservation areas unless their agricultural land is hardly accessible Improving accessibility to the cultivation land can thus have an effect on the biodiversity and thus the other use functions The second level of accessibility concerns the connection between the different regions of Laos Aforementioned, the income in the northern regions is much lower than it is in the central area Improving the connection between these regions could cause a better integration of North Laos in the national economy and thus reduce the dependency from China National enterprises can generate added value that would have been lost when exporting raw products, and tourism activities can profit as with shorter travel times the attractiveness is increased • Promote income diversification Considering the goal of poverty alleviation the promotion of different means of income generation is indispensable Currently many farmers rely completely on rubber with the expectation of the prices to stay high With a decline of the rubber price on the global market or natural hazards these farmers would lose any means of income Promotion of diversification is therefore indispensible as there are possibilities to earn similar 90 Conclusions and recommendations amounts as with rubber while pursuing other activities Investments in infrastructure and assistance for the farmers regarding coordination and organization could foster ecotourism where the beauty of the landscape allows it In more degraded regions without attractiveness for tourists the promotion of different industrial crops could help the farmers to have something to fall back on whenever the rubber price declines 4.6 Recommendations for development cooperation Similar to the policy relevant recommendations those for development cooperation concern socio-economic development and the environment, too But while the assignment of the policy lies rather in the provision of infrastructure and the definition of the legal background on national level, development agencies may rather envisage more concrete / local projects on the background of the international dynamics In the study at hand the modelling of the potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations has been performed at national level Therefore recommendations for development cooperation are rather general and need to be adapted for the local context Additionally, they may seem similar to the policy relevant recommendations, but as aforementioned, these tackle rather the institutional and legal background while the recommendations for development cooperation focus on collaboration The following points regarding cooperation have been found to be important: • Promotion of rubber where it is viable and permissible With the high rubber prices on the global market the plantation of rubber seems to be a good means to push socio-economic development In order to achieve the highest benefit, the role of the development agencies is to provide technical assistance like information about the ecological limitation of the plant, schooling in tapping techniques, etc and provide market access and information on the prices Additionally, the effect of rubber on the environment and the biodiversity needs to be considered and other activities or crops promoted if they are more viable or less harmful regarding environmental degradation • Assist measures on environmental protection and promote agroforestry in order to maintain biodiversity Laos shows a high percentage of dense forest cover in comparison with the surrounding countries The effects of the forest area and the high biodiversity of Laos on the Lower Mekong Region are unknown As farmers reported to have observed a reduction in the river runoff after forest has been converted to a rubber plantation, one can assume that large scale plantations not only affect the environment locally but also within the whole region Promotion of crops and activities different from rubber, and the introduction of agroforestry systems can prevent rubber from being the dominant land cover within a watershed This way a certain level of biodiversity can be maintained and negative effects on the whole Lower Mekong Region reduced • Reduce dependencies through diversification and the generation of added value With China being the major determinant of the actual rubber price, diversification on different levels is indispensable This can be reached by culti- 91 Rubber in Laos vating a bigger variety of crops and getting involved in activities different from agriculture Another option is to establish own processing industries – added value can be generated this way and alternatives for rubber sales are created 92 References References Abrams M, Hook S, Ramachandran B 2002 ASTER User Handbook Version Pasadena, USA: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Alton C, Bluhm D, Sananikone S 2005 Para Rubber Study: Hevea brasiliensis Vientiane, Lao PDR: Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, Rural Development in Mountainous Areas of Northern Lao PDR (GTZ RDMA) and National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute Baaz M, Benz U, Dehghani S, Heynen M, Höltje A, Hofmann P, Lingenfelder I, Mimler M, Sohlbach M, Weber M, Willhauck G 2004 eCognition User Guide München, Germany: Definiens Imaging GmbH Benz UC, Hofmann P, Willhauck G, Lingenfelder I, Heynen M 2004 Multiresolution, object-oriented fuzzy analysis of remote sensing data for GIS-ready information ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry & Remote Sensing 58(3-4): 239-258 Blaschke T, Lang S, Lorup E, Strobl J, Zeil P 2000 Object-Oriented Image Processing in an Integrated GIS/Remote Sensing Environment and Perspectives for Environmental Applications In: Cremers AB, Greve K, editors Computer Science for Environmental Protection ’00 Environmental Information for Planning, Politics and the Public Volume Marburg, Germany: Metropolis-Verlag: 555-570 Bourdet Y 1998 The Dynamics of Regional Disparities in Laos: The Poor and the Rich Asian Survey 38(7): 629-652 Breu T 2006 Sustainable Land Management in the Tajik Pamirs: The Role of Knowledge for Sustainable Development [PhD dissertation] Bern, Switzerland: University of Bern Cassel-Gintz M 2001 GIS-Gestützte Analyse Globaler Muster Anthropogener Waldschädigung Eine Sektorale Anwendung des Syndromskonzepts [PhD dissertation submitted to the Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin, Germany] Potsdam, Germany: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Chapman EC 1990 The expansion of rubber in southern Yunnan, China The Geographical Journal (157)1: 36-44 Chomitz KM, Gray DA 1996 Roads, land use, and deforestation: A spatial model applied to Belize World Bank Economic Review 10(3): 487-512 Climate Data Archive 2008 Global temperature and precipitation data series Available at: http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/archive.html Accessed on 15 May 2008 Douangsavanh L, Thammavong B 2006 Meeting regional and global demands for rubber: The key to poverty alleviation in Lao PDR Paper presented at the Workshop on Rubber Development in Lao PDR: Exploring Improved Systems for Smallholder Production Vientiane, Lao PDR, – 11 May 93 Rubber in Laos 2006 Available at http://www.nafri.org.la/05_news/workshops/rubber/start.html Accessed on May 2008 Ekandinata A, Widayati A, Vincent G 2004 Rubber agroforest identification using object-based classification in Bungo District, Jambi, Indonesi Paper presented at the 25th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 22–26 November 2004 Available at http://www.definiens.com/documents/publications_earth2004.php Accessed on 23 May 2008 Foppes J, Ketphanh S 2000 Forest extraction or cultivation? Local solutions from Lao PDR, Paper presented at the Workshop on the Evolution and Sustainability of “Intermediate Systems” of Forest Management, FOREASIA, Lofoten, Norway, 28 June – July 2000 Available at http://www.etfrn.org/etfrn/workshop/biodiversity/documents/foppes1 pdf Accessed on 15 May 2008 Franke G, editor 1994 Nutzpflanzen der Tropen & Subtropen Band 3: Spezieller Pflanzenba Stuttgart, Germany: Verlag Eugen Ulmer Gunn GC 1991 Laos in 1990: Winds of Change Asian Survey 31(1): 87-93 Heinimann A 2006 Patterns of Land Cover Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: The Relevance of Mesoscale Approaches [PhD dissertation] Bern, Switzerland: University of Bern ICNR 2008 Information Center for Natural Rubber Available at http://www.rubber-stichting.info Acessed on 16 July 2008 Inoue M, Hyakumura K 1999 Forest policy of Laos in terms of local participation Arlington, USA: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Kaimowitz D, Angelsen A 1998 Economic Models of Deforestation: A Review Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research Ketphanh S, Mounlamai K, Siksidao P 2006 Rubber Planting Status in Lao PDR Paper presented at the Workshop on Rubber Development in Lao PDR: Exploring Improved Systems for Smallholder Production Vientiane, Lao PDR, – 11 May 2006 Available at http://www.nafri.org.la/05_news/workshops/rubber/start.html Accessed on May 2008 Lambin E F, Geist H J, Lepers E 2003 Dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Tropical Regions Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28: 205-241 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 2006 National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2006 – 2010) Vientiane, Lao PDR: Committee for Planning and Investment (CPI) Luang Namtha Travel Website 2008 Luang Namtha Tourist Information http://www.theboatlanding.laopdr.com/buses.html Accessed on 21 July 2008 MAF 1996 The Forestry Law Unofficial Translation by Dirksen Flipse Doran & LE, Lawyers & Counselors Vientiane, Lao PDR: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Lao People’s Democratic Republic 94 References MAF 2005 Report on the assessment on forest cover and land use during 1992 – 2002 Vientiane, Lao PDR: Department of Forestry, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) Malaysian Rubber Board 2008 Daily rubber prices on world market Available at http://www.lgm.gov.my Accessed on 16 July 2008 Mertens B, Lambin E.F 2000 Land-cover-change Trajectories in Southern Cameroon Annals of the Association of American Geographers 90(3): 467-494 Mertens B, Poccard-Chapuis R, Piketty MG, Lacques AE, Venturieri A 2002 Crossing spatial analyses and livestock economics to understand deforestation processes in the Brazilian Amazon: The case of Sao Felix Xingu in South Para Agricultural Economics 27(3): 269-294 Nagendra H, Southworth J, Tucker C 2004 Accessibility as a determinant of landscape transformation in western Honduras: linking pattern and process Landscape Ecology 18: 141 – 158 NASA 2008 Landsat Available at http://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/about/landsat7.html Accessed on 15 May 2008 NCRSTE 2008 National Consortium for Remote Sensing in Transportation Tasseled cap transformation Available at http://www.ncrste.msstate.edu/publications/posters/ncrste_tg0029.pdf Accessed on 15 May 2008 Nelson A 2001 Analysing data across geographic scales in Honduras: detecting levels of organisation within systems Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environments 85(1-3): 107-131 Norse D, Tschirley J.B 2000 Links between science and policy making Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment (82) 1-3: 15-26 NSC (National Statistics Centre) 2008 Population statistics of Lao PDF Available at http://www.nsc.gov.la/Statistics/Selected%20Statistics/Population.htm Accessed on 23 May 2008 OPEC 2008 Oil prices Available at http://www.opec.org Accessed on 16 July 2008 Phengsopha K, Morimoto T 2004 Local Forest Management and Strategies in Northern Laos Following Government Intervention Arlington, USA: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Pilakone P, Jones P 2006 Indicative Rubber Suitability Zoning for Smallholder Rubber Production in Northern Provinces of Lao PDR Paper presented at the Workshop on Rubber Development in Lao PDR: Exploring Improved Systems for Smallholder Production Vientiane, Lao PDR, – 11 May 2006 Available at http://www.nafri.org.la/05_news/workshops/rubber/start.html Accessed on May 2008 95 Rubber in Laos Salameh MG 2003 Can renewable and unconventional energy sources bridge the global energy gap in the 21st century? Applied Energy 75(1-2): 3342 Schipani S 2006 Ecotourism as an Alternative to Upland Rubber Cultivation in the Nam Ha National Protected Area, Luang Namtha, Lao PDR Paper presented at the Workshop on Rubber Development in Lao PDR: Exploring Improved Systems for Smallholder Production Vientiane, Lao PDR, – 11 May 2006 Available at http://www.nafri.org.la/05_news/workshops/rubber/start.html Accessed on May 2008 Shi W 2008 Rubber Boom in Luang Namtha: A Transnational Perspective Vientiane, Lao PDR: Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit, Rural Development in Mountainous Areas of Northern Lao PDR (GTZ RDMA) UNDP Lao 2008 Lao PDR overview Available at http://www.undp.lao.org Accessed on 10 June 2008 Verburg PH, Overmars KP, Witte N 2004 Accessibility and land-use patterns at the forest fringe in the northeastern part of the Philippines The Geographical Journal 170(3): 238-255 Vientiane Times June 29, 2007 Rubber investments top notch in Luang Namtha Available from: http://groups.google.com/group/laofab/msg/07cce5c84895f2cc?hl=en & Vientiane Times May 18, 2007 Opinion: Rubber set to be main export crop Available from: http://groups.google.com/group/laofab/msg/91b66f598ecb23b9?hl=e n& Water Supply Authority (WASA) of Lao PDR 2008 Information on districts with poverty incidence Available from: www.wasa.gov.la/docs/buliding2004/map_ws_status.pdf Accessed on July 2008 Weier J, Herring D Year unknown Measuring Vegetation Available at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/MeasuringVegetation/measuri ng_vegetation_2.html Accessed on May 2008 World Agroforestry Centre 2008 Information on rubber crop requirements Available at http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/Sea/Products/AFDbases/AF/as p/SpeciesInfo.asp?SpID=17 Accessed on June 2008 Yarbrough LD, Easson G, Kuszmaul JS 2004 Script for Tasseled Cap coefficients from ASTER Sensor Available at http://umgc.olemiss.edu/data.html Accessed on 15 May 2008 Yu Q, Gong P, Clinton N, Biging G, Kelly M, Schirokauer D 2006 Object-based Detailed Vegetation Classification with Airborne High Spatial Resolution Remote Sensing Imagery Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 72(7): 799-811 96 References Zimmermann HJ 1993 Prinzipien der Fuzzy Logic Spektrum der Wissenschaft 22(3): 90-94 97 Rubber in Laos 98 Annex Annex Potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations according to the suitability of the soils 99 Rubber in Laos Potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations according to the suitability of the slopes 100 Annex Potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations according to the suitability of the elevation 101 Rubber in Laos Potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations according to the accessibility (combination of province and village accessibility) 102 Annex Potential spatial distribution of rubber plantations according to the accessibility (combination of village accessibility and accessibility from outside of Laos) 103 ...ii Rubber in Laos Detection of actual and assessment of potential plantations in Lao PDR using GIS and remote sensing technologies Diplomarbeit der Philosophisch-naturwissenschaftlichen... regarding decision-making and elaboration of development strategies Using my GIS and Remote Sensing competence and my fascination for the possibilities offered by spatial data and modelling approaches,... Analysis of land use and land cover changes 3.2 25 34 A spatial assessment of the potential development of rubber plantations in Laos 51 3.2.1 Reasons for the necessity of potential rubber mapping in