Manitoba Economic Highlights pot

Note:Changesarecalculatedrelativetothe correspondingperiodinthepreviousyear.Updated:April16,2013Page1of5  ManitobaEconomicHighlights  EconomicOverview  RealGrossDomesticProduct  Manitoba’s real GDP growth rate is estimated at 2.2% in 2012, based on Manitoba Finance’s survey of economic forecasts.  ThesurveyforecaststhattheManitobaGDP willgrow1.9%in2013and2.3%in2014.   Manitoba’s real GDP increased by 2.2% in 2011 following a 2.3% increase in 2010, according to the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics  Manitoba has the second best average annual GDP growth over the last five years (2007‐2012f) at 2.1% and ahead of Canada 1.1%.  ConsumerPriceIndex  In 2013 (year‐to‐date (y‐t‐d)), the Manitoba CPI increased 1.7%, tenth among provinces andaboveCanadaat0.9%.  Tobacco &  alcohol, shelter and household operationsboostedoverallconsumerprices, while health & personal care costs, clothing and recreation,educationand reading costs easedpressureonprices.   Manitoba CPI increased 1.6% in 2012, the fifth lowest among provinces and similar to the1.5%increaseforCanada.  LabourMarket Employment  In the first three months of 2013, employment increased 1.8% or 11,200 jobs while the labour force expanded 1.3% or 8,500newentrants.  In the first three months of 2013, full‐time employment increased by 1.6% (8,000) and  Inthefirstthreemonthsof2013, employmentwasup11,200jobswith 8,000full‐timeand3,200part‐timejobs generated.    In2012allareahousingstartsincreased 19.1%,almosttwiceCanada’s10.8% increaseandthirdbestnationally.Starts reached7,242units,thehighestsince 1987.   ThevalueofManitobabuildingpermits increased34.9%in2012,threetimes Canada’s9.3%increaseandthebest nationally,reaching$2.5billion.   AnnualsalesinManitobaaerospaceparts nowexceed$1billionandtheaerospace partsindustryaccountsfor8%oftotal manufacturingsalesintheprovince.   AsofJuly1,2012,Manitoba'smedianage was37.6years,thethirdlowestamong provinces,andbelowthenationallevelof 40.0 y ears. RealGDP(%Change) Source:ManitobaBureauofStatisticsand; ManitobaFinance,surveyofeconomicforecasters. ‐4 ‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f Manitoba Canada Note:Changesarecalculatedrelativetothe correspondingperiodinthepreviousyear.Updated:April16,2013Page2of5  ManitobaEconomicHighlights part‐time employment increased 2.6% (3,200).  In 2012, Manitoba’s employment increased 0.9%andManitoba’slabourforceexpanded 0.8%. In 2012, Manitoba’s employment growth ranked sixth highest among provinces.  UnemploymentRate  In the first three months of 2013, Manitoba’s unemployment rate was 5.0%, thirdlowestamongprovincesandbelowthe 7.2%nationalaverage.  In2012,Manitoba’sunemploymentratewas 5.3%,thirdlowestbehindSaskatchewanand Alberta. The youth unemployment rate was 11.0%,thethirdlowestinCanada.  Over the past 13 years, Manitoba’s unemployment rate has averaged 2.2 percentagepointsbelowCanada. AverageWeeklyEarnings  InJanuary 2013,averageweeklyearningsin Manitoba were up 1.6%, eight among provincesandabovethenationalincreaseof 2.8%.  In 2012, average weekly earnings in Manitoba were up 2.7%, tied for seventh among provinces and above the national increaseof2.5%. Population  As of January 1, 2013, Manitoba’s population stood at 1,274,279 a one‐year increase of 14,904 persons, a one year increase of 1.2%. This is the fourth consecutive 12 month period of population growthaheadofthenationalrate.  As of July 1, 2012, Manitoba's median age was 37.6 years, the third lowest among provinces, and below the  national level of  40.0years. NetMigration  For the year ending January 1, 2012, 9,116 morepeoplemovedtoManitobathanleft.  Duringthesameperiod,netinternationalin‐ migration totalled 11,223 and net inter‐ provincial out‐migration totalled 3,926. Naturalincreasetotalled5,788. EconomicActivity ManufacturingSales  In 2013 (y‐t‐d), Manitoba manufacturing sales decreased 0.4%, the same as the national decrease and ranked sixth among provinces. Sales of wood, chemicals, electrical products, printing, plastics and rubber, machinery, food, and aerospace parts are leading growth while fabricated metals, transportation equipment and non‐ metallicmineralslaggrowth.   In 2012, Manitoba manufacturing sales increased1.4%comparedtoa3.5%national  increase and ranked sixth among provinces withsevenof11sub‐sectorsadvancing. Employment(%Change)  2012 2013(ytd) Manitoba TotalEmployment 0.9 1.8 Full‐Time 1.1 1.6 Part‐Time Canada 0.1 2.6 TotalEmployment 1.2 1.6 Note:Changesarecalculatedrelativetothe correspondingperiodinthepreviousyear.Updated:April16,2013Page3of5  ManitobaEconomicHighlights  Annual sales in Manitoba aerospace parts now exceed $1 billion and the industry accountsfor8%oftotalmanufacturingsales intheprovince. FarmCashReceipts  Inthefirstthreequartersof2012,Manitoba farm cash receipts are up 1.0%. Crop receipts decreased 2.5% due to declines in oilseeds14.8%andwheatreceipts58.6%.  Livestock receipts were up 4.0% with strength across all components, hogs up 2.9%andcattleup5.4%.  Direct payments, which  include insurance and various types of income supports, increased8.5%.   Crop production rebounded in 2012, from twoyearsoffloodingandbadweather,with increases in all crops: wheat 76%, canola 20%, corn forgrain97%,soybeans84%and barley137%.  In2011,Manitobacashreceiptsincreasedto  $4.9 billion. Manitoba’s 2.2% increase was thesecondlowestamongprovinces. RetailSales  In 2013 (y‐t‐d), Manitoba retail sales increased by 1.6% compared to a 2.9% national decrease and ranked seventh amongprovinces.  Inthefirsttwomonthsof2013,newmotor vehicleunitsaleswereup5.8%,best among provinces and above the national decline of 3.1%.In2012newmotorvehiclesaleswere up 7.6%, sixth among provinces and better thanthenationalincreaseof5.9%.  In 2012, Manitoba retail sales increased 1.4%, below the Canadian increase of 2.4% andseventhbestamongprovinces.  2012 retail sales rose on the strength of furniture5.5%,departmentstore sales4.5%, clothing 4.2% and sporting goods sales up 3.9% – sales of electronics and appliances were down 6.4%, personal services down 2.7%,andgasolinesalesdeclined1.8%. Investment  Statistics Canada’s Private and Public Investment Survey released February 2013 projected Manitoba’s capital investment to increase 8.5%, above the Canadian increase of1.7%.  Manitoba’s private investment is projected to increase 6.3% and public investment to increase12.9%. FarmCashReceipts(%Change)  2011 2012(ytd)  Canola (1.0) (17.0) Wheat 6.5 (58.6) Hogs 13.3 2.9 Cattle (5.2) 5.4 TotalFarmCash 2.2 1.0 LeadingIndustrieswithStrongest GrowthManufacturingSales(%Change)  2011 2012  Wood ‐2.0 19.8 Aerospaceparts 9.1 16.2 Machinery 24.2 10.9 TotalSales 6.21.4 Note:Changesarecalculatedrelativetothe correspondingperiodinthepreviousyear.Updated:April16,2013Page4of5  ManitobaEconomicHighlights  A number of  major investment projects are currently underway, including, IKEA at the Seasons of Tuxedo shopping complex, and thestadiumatUniversityofManitoba.  Manitoba’s capital investment for 2012 was reviseduptoa9.7%increase,fromthe4.7% increaseforecastlastFebruary.  Manitoba’s total capital investments increased to a record $12.3 billion in 2012. Private investment increased 4.9% while publiccapitalinvestmentincreased21.1%.  From 2006 to 2011, Manitoba private investmenthasincreased by 34% compared to a 14% national increase. Over the same period, Manitoba total investment has increased 45% compared to a 22% national increase. HousingStarts  In 2012, Manitoba all area housing starts increased 19.1% almost double the 10.8% national increase and the third best growth among provinces. Manitoba starts reached 7,242 units, the highest level since 1987. Single starts were up 8.8% (4,169 units – now the highest since 1987) and multiples increased 36.5% (3,073  units also the best since1987).  Inthefirstthreemonthsof2013,Manitoba urban area housing starts increased 21.0%, fourth best among provinces and better thanthe17.0%nationaldecline.Singlestarts were up 5.0% and multiples starts are up 36.9%.Urbanhousingstartsrepresentabout 70%ofallstartsintheprovince.  Manitoba all area housing starts increased 3.3%in2011to6,083 units,higherthanthe 2.1% national increase. Single starts were down 3.6% (3,831 units) while multiples wereup17.8%(2,252units).  In 2012, total and multiple starts were at theirhighestlevelsince1987.  Manitoba’sgrowthinhousingstartsin2011 was fifth highest  among provinces and abovethenationalaverage.  Manitoba urban area housing starts increased 18.1% in 2012 to 4,910 units, the highest level since 1987. Manitoba urban housing starts growth was above the national increase of 11.0%. Single starts were up 4.3% (2,502 units) while multiples were up 36.9% (2,408 units) the highest levelsince1987. BuildingPermits  Inthefirsttwomonthsof2013,thevalueof Manitoba building permits increased 21.6%, betterthan Canada’s7.5%decline andthird nationally.  Manitoba residential permits increased (15.6%) and non‐residential permits increased (31.2%). Non‐residential building permits were supported by: industrial permits (30.5%); commercial permits (27.6%);andinstitutional permits(44.7%).  Total permits in Winnipeg increased 35.8% while outside of Winnipeg they declined 14.3%.  In 2012, the value of Manitoba building permitsincreased34.9%,thehighestgrowth HousingStarts(AllAreas)(%Change)  Manitoba Canada  2009 (24.6) (29.4) 2010 41.1 27.4 2011 3.3 2.1 2012 19.1 10.8 Note:Changesarecalculatedrelativetothe correspondingperiodinthepreviousyear.Updated:April16,2013Page5of5  ManitobaEconomicHighlights among provinces and above the national increaseof9.3%. Bankruptcies  InJanuary2013,businessbankruptcieswere up 66.7% in Manitoba, and ranked eighth. Business bankruptcies are down 12.7% in Canada.  In January 2013, consumer bankruptcies were down 13.7% in Manitoba, tied for secondwithAlberta.Consumerbankruptcies areup0.8%inCanada.  In 2012, business bankruptcies were down 40.0% in Manitoba, more than three times better than Canada, down 11.2%, and best nationally.  In 2012, consumer bankruptcies were down 15.7% in Manitoba, almost double Canada’s decline of 8.3%, and fourth best  among provinces. ForeignMerchandiseExports  In the first two months of 2013, Manitoba exports increased 1.1%, while Canadian exportsweredown0.8%.  Inthefirst twomonths of2013,Manitoba’s U.S. exports increased 3.8% while non‐U.S. exportsweredown4.4%.  In 2012, Manitoba exports declined 4.8%, while Canadian exports were up 2.0%. Manitoba U.S. exports were up 4.5% and Manitoba’snon‐U.S.exportsdeclined19.1%. Hydro‐ElectricitySales  Inthefirsttwomonthsof2013,thevalueof hydro sales increased 14.3% with a 14.7% increase in domestic sales being further supported by a 11.1% increase in export sales.  Exports to other Canadian provinces .increased3.1%whileU.S.exportsadvanced 13.1%.  In 2012, the value of hydro sales declined 2.8% with a 0.9% drop in domestic sales being further reduced by a 9.3% decline in exportsales.   ForeignMerchandiseExports (%Change)  2012 2013 (ytd)  AllCountries ‐4.81.1 U.S. 4.53.8 Non‐U.S. ‐19.1‐4.4 ManitobaFinance EconomicandFiscalAnalysisBranch,Taxation, EconomicandIntergovernmentalFiscal ResearchDivision‐(204)945‐3757  Director:NarendraBudhia Narendra.Budhia@gov.mb.ca  Manager:JeffPowell Jeff.Powell@gov.mb.ca  Analyst:RobbBalacko Robert.Balacko@gov.mb.ca   Analyst:StephenVerhaeghe Stephen.Verhaeghe@gov.mb.ca   Pleaseclickoneconomicstatistics toviewthedata underlyingthisreport.  Note:The2013ManitobaBudget isavailableat: ManitobaBudgetApril16,2013 