America outlook pdf

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 2 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. * * * The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by decision of the OECD Council on 23 October 1962 and comprises 23 member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom as well as Brazil since March 1994, Chile since November 1998, India since February 2001 Romania since October 2004, Thailand since March 2005,South Africa since May 2006 and Egypt, Israel, and Viet Nam since March 2008 The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre’s Governing Board. The Development Centre, whose membership is open to both OECD and non-OECD countries, occupies a unique place within the OECD and in the international community. Members finance the Centre and serve on its Governing Board, which sets the biennial work programme and oversees its implementation. The Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and discussion to seek creative policy solutions to emerging global issues and development challenges. Participants in Centre events are invited in their personal capacity. A small core of staff works with experts and institutions from the OECD and partner countries to fulfil the Centre’s work programme. The results are discussed in informal expert and policy dialogue meetings, and are published in a range of high-quality products for the research and policy communities. The Centre’s Study Series presents in-depth analyses of major development issues. Policy Briefs and Policy Insights summarise major conclusions for policy makers; Working Papers deal with the more technical aspects of the Centre’s work. For an overview of the Centre’s activities, please see www.oecd.org/dev The opinions expressed and arguments employed in Development Centre publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD, its Development Centre or of the governments of their member countries. * * * Également disponible en français sous le titre : PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES EN AFRIQUE © OECD, African Development Bank (2008) No reproduction, copy, transmission or translation of this publication may be made without written permission. Applications should be sent to OECD Publishing rights@oecd.org or by fax 33 1 45 24 99 30. Permission to photocopy a portion of this work should be addressed to the Centre Français d’exploitation du droit de Copie (CFC), 20 rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, fax 33 1 46 34 67 19, contact@cfcopies.com or (for US only) to Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive Danvers, MA 01923, USA, fax 1 978 646 8600, info@copyright.com. ✒ African Economic Outlook© AfDB/OECD 2008 3 THE AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP The African Development Bank Group is a regional multilateral development finance institution the members of which are all of the 53 countries in Africa and 25 countries from Asia, Europe, North and South America. The purpose of the Bank is to further the economic development and social progress of African countries, individually and collectively. To this end, the Bank promotes the investment of public and private capital for development, primarily by providing loans and grants for projects and programs that contribute to poverty reduction and broad-based sustainable development in Africa. The non-concessional operations of the Bank are financed from its ordinary capital resources. In addition, the Bank’s soft window affiliates – the African Development Fund and the Nigeria Trust Fund – provide concessional financing to low-income countries that are not able to sustain loans on market terms. By the end of 2007, the African Development Bank Group cumulatively approved 3 174 loans and grants for commitments of close to UA 42 billion (approximately USD 63 billion). The commitments were made to 52 regional member countries and institutions to support development projects and programmes in agriculture, transport, public utilities, industry, education and health services. Since the mid-1980s, a significant share of commitments has also gone to promoting economic reform and adjustment programmes that help to accelerate socio-economic development. About 57 per cent of the total Bank Group commitments were financed on non- concessional terms, while the balance benefited from concessional financing. African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 4 Foreword Foreword The African Economic Outlook project is a joint initiative of the African Development Bank and the OECD Development Centre, joined in 2008 by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The Report was drafted by a core team essentially from the AfDB and the Centre, supported by resource people in selected countries. A generous grant from the Commission of the European Communities was essential to initiating and sustaining the project. African Economic Outlook Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Part One: Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Part Two: Country Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 • Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 • Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 • Benin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 • Botswana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 • Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 • Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 • Cape Verde . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 • Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 • Congo Republic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 • Congo Dem. Rep. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 • Côte d’Ivoire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 • Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 • Equatorial Guinea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 • Ethiopia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301 • Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 • Ghana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 • Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 • Liberia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 • Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373 • Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385 • Malawi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 • Mali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 • Mauritius. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429 • Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 445 • Mozambique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 • Namibia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 • Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 491 • Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507 • Rwanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 521 • Senegal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537 • South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 553 • Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 571 • Tunisia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585 • Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 599 • Zambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615 Part Three: Statistical Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 631 African Economic Outlook© AfDB/OECD 2008 5 Table of Contents African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 6 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The African Economic Outlook was prepared by a consortium of three teams led by Kenneth Ruffing. The team at the African Development Bank (AfDB) was led by Barfour Osei and Beejaye Kokil at the Chief Economist Complex. The team at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) was led by Léonce Ndikumana, and the team at the OECD Development Centre was led by Lucia Wegner. The Outlook was prepared under the overall guidance of Louis Kasekende, Chief Economist, AfDB, Temitope Waheed Oshikoya, Director, AfDB Development Research Department, Abdellatif Bernoussi, Manager, Networking and Research Partnership Division, AfDB, Javier Santiso, Director, OECD Development Centre, and Hakim Ben Hammouda, Chief Economist, UNECA. The comparative synthesis of the report was drafted by Ken Ruffing (macroeconomic section), Lucia Wegner and Christian Kingombe (thematic section). Additional inputs were provided by: Yero Baldeh, Jeff Dayton-Johnson, Thomas Dickinson, Adam Elhiraika, Ki Fukasaku, Andrea Goldstein, Federica Marzo, Francesca Pavarini, Helmut Reisen, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane, Susanna Wolf and Felix Zimmermann. The country notes were drafted by Mahamat Abdoulahi, Oluyele Akinkugbe, Abou Amadou Ba, Mohammed-Hedi Bchir, Farid Benyoucef, Sylvie Anne Conde, Assitan Diarra-Thioume, Jeff Dayton-Johnson, Adam Elthiraika, Alain Fabrice Expo, Gaston Gohou, Racine Kane, Kavazeua Katjomuise, Christian Kingombe, Federica Marzo, Ahmed Moummi (with the assistance of Luis Bokung), Felix N’Zue, Oladeji Ojo, Peter Ondiege, Barfour Osei, Ben Idrissa Ouedrago, Rasheed Oyaromade, Taoufik Rajhi, Kenneth Ruffing, Mustapha Sadni-Jallab, Désiré Vencatachellum, Audrey Verdier-Chouchane, Lucia Wegner, Susanna Wolf and the following research institutes: Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche en Economie et Gestion (CEREG, Cameroun), Centre de Recherches Economiques Appliquées (CREA, Sénegal), Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF, Tanzania), Egyptian Centre for Economic Studies (ECES), and Namibian Economic Policy Research Unit (NEPRU). The work on the country notes greatly benefited from the valuable contributions of local consultants: Prince Agbodjan (Benin), Fatima Zohara Alaoui (Morocco), Iharimar Andriamarozoka (Madagascar), Daniel Bambara (Burkina Faso), William Bekoe (Ghana), Youcef Benabdallah (Algeria), Emilio Dava (Mozambique), Peter Draper and Philip Alves (South Africa), Francis Gatare (Rwanda), Ousseini Hamidou (Niger), Aloysius Heagbetu (Liberia), Yaro Jinjiri (Nigeria), Serge Kpassokro (Côte d’Ivoire), Oumar Makalou (Mali), John McGrath (Malawi), Michel Matamona (Congo), Alexandre Nshue Mokime (Democratic Republic of Congo), Patrick Musila Mwaniki (Kenya), Chiwama Musonda (Zambia), Joel Muzima (Mozambique), E.S.K. Muwanga-Zake (Uganda), Tabo Symphorien Ndang (Chad), Modeste Mfa Obiang (Gabon), Adesida Olugbenga (Cape Verde), Alves da Rocha (Angola), Sawkut Ally Rojid (Mauritius), Happy Siphambe (Botswana), and Abderrazak Zouari (Tunisia). The committee of peer reviewers of the country notes included: Maria João Azevedo, Sylvain Dessy, Paul Koffi Koffi, Anne-Marie Geourjon, and Stephen Golub. Valuable statistical inputs were provided by Hilaire Kadisha, Koua Louis Kouakou Fetor Komlan, and Nirina Letsara at the AfDB Statistics Department. At the UNECA, Dawit Birhanu, Tsedale Demissie, Moctar Diouf, Laureline Pla, Abiola Sunmonu, and Sylvie Umuhoza provided research assistance while Theresa Ouedraogo provided administrative support. The macroeconomic framework used to produce the forecasting was updated and managed by Federica Marzo at the OECD Development Centre and Beejaye Kokil at the African Development Bank. The statistical annex is the product of a joint work carried out by Beejaye Kokil and Federica Marzo, with the support of Christian Kingombe. The project also benefited from the assistance provided by Ralph Christian Maloumby-Baka and Yvette Chanvoédou, and Thomas Dickinson at the OECD Development Centre and Rhoda Bangurah and Nelson Abiana, at the AfDB Development Research Department. Michèle Girard, Librarian at the OECD Development Centre, was also of assistance. The country maps were produced by Roland Pourtier. The maps and diagrams used in this publication in no way imply recognition of any states or political boundaries by the African Development Bank Group, the European Union, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Development Centre or the authors. A large number of African government representatives, private-sector colleagues and civil society members provided extremely valuable inputs and comments, including all the participants in the joint AfDB/OECD Development Centre expert meeting on Technical and Vocational Skills Development. Several institutions also contributed to the project at various stages: the AfDB country operations departments, the AfDB Human Resources Department, the Agence Française de Développement and the Groupe Experts Formation Professionnelle (GEFOP), the African Partnership Forum Support Unit, the European Commission delegations in Africa, The European Training Foundation, the Heiligendamm Dialogue Process Support Unit, the ILO Skills and Employability Department, the OECD Economics Department, the OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, the OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, the UNESCO UNEVOC International Centre for Technical and Vocational Education and Training, and the World Bank Economic and Prospects Group. The OECD Development Centre’s Publications/Media Unit, led by Colm Foy and Sheila Lionet, was responsible for transforming the manuscript into the publication. African Economic Outlook© AfDB/OECD 2008 7 Preface Preface This seventh edition of the African Economic Outlook marks a turning point. Not only has primary responsibility for the project been transferred from the OECD Development Centre to the African Development Bank, but we have a new partner, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). In addition, we have invited independent research institutes in several African nations to join us in preparing country studies and to participate in the dissemination activities of the AEO. The African Economic Outlook thus moves into a new stage of maturity and its already considerable reputation and standing can only benefit. Indeed, the AEO is now a permanent feature of the African socio-economic literature and we are proud to carry it forward together. This year’s edition sees a further increase in the coverage of the continent to 35 countries, up from 31 in 2007, covering 87 per cent of Africa’s population and 95 per cent of its economic output. This is a significant achievement, but our hope is that the country coverage will continue to be extended until it ultimately covers the entire continent. Growth in Africa is estimated to have been 5.7 per cent in 2007, the fourth consecutive year with growth above 5 per cent. Moreover, that trend is expected to continue at slightly higher levels – 5.9 per cent – over the next two years, the limit of the current AEO’s forecasts. Prospects are, therefore, favourable for the continent overall. At the level of individual countries, however, there are marked differences between the oil-exporters and the others. The former group continues to benefit from the boom in oil exports and persistently high prices, though production in some countries is either already falling or set to do so. The challenge remains for this group of African countries to invest in the future through improved infrastructure and services including education, training and health. For the oil importers, once again the outlook is somewhat less favourable, although many of them, particularly exporters of minerals, are also doing well. Nonetheless, most of them must either contain or finance expanding current account deficits which have been heavily impacted by increases in the international prices of food and fuel. Both groups of countries need to make greater efforts to contain inflation which has begun to tick upwards. Within each group of countries the largest factor explaining different performances appears to be the quality of governance. Elsewhere, the economy is at risk from unresolved or new crises caused by the breakdown in governance structures or continuing competition for scarce resources. There have been positive moves by international organisations, including the African Union and the African Development Bank, to help bring an end to conflict, but its resolution will also require the goodwill of African leaders in government and in opposition. The continent’s political leaders will need to show more maturity and more forbearance if we are to see an end to political disruption, armed conflict and displaced populations. This remains Africa’s greatest challenge. The 2008 AEO sheds its spotlight on technical and vocational skills development (TVSD). Despite the increasing recognition that higher technical and vocational skills are crucial in enhancing competitiveness and contributing to social inclusion, decent employment, and poverty reduction, our country reviews, backed up by independent experts, show that technical and vocational systems in Africa remain influenced by multiple constraints that limit their expansion and impact. Fewer than 5 per cent of secondary school students are enrolled in technical and vocational programmes, which is very low compared to other regions, and their share in educational budgets is only about 2 to 6 per cent. Few countries have training policies which emphasise skills development in the informal sector, the largest employer and provider of training in Africa. The report demonstrates that opportunities offered by the private-enterprise sector, including that part of what is generally called “informal”, hold the most promise for the training of Africa’s youth and the next generation of entrepreneurs likely to provide employment and prosperity. At the same time, many countries are reforming their training systems to adapt them better to the needs of both the formal and the informal labour markets, and are introducing or strengthening partnerships between school-based training and apprenticeships in both the formal and informal sectors. These reforms must continue and become generalised. It is our hope that such initiatives, supported by responsible governments and the international community, will contribute to African countries’ continued progress, documented in this year’s African Economic Outlook. April 2008 Donald Kaberuka, President, African Development Bank, Tu n i s Javier Santiso, Director, OECD Development Centre, Paris Abdoulie Janneh, Executive Secretary, United Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa. Part One [...]... Tea prices increased by 8.7 per cent in 2007 compared to 2006, but are still below their 2000 levels, and are expected to remain at about the same levels in 2008 and 2009 The outlook is not favourable, given African Economic Outlook the declining trend in consumption growth and the continued growth in output Cotton prices rose by slightly more than 10 per cent in 2007 following an increase of about... Due to lack of data, these aggregates do not include Somalia Source: Various domestic authorities; IMF World Economic Outlook and authors' estimates (e) and projections (p) 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/320433387751 16 Johannesburg Stock Exchange annual report 2006 African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 Overview increased investment in these sectors, and good growing conditions for agriculture in... Nigeria, Egypt Note: Owing to lack of data, these aggregates do not include Somalia Source: Various domestic authorities; IMF World Economic Outlook and authors' estimates (e) and projections (p) 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/320460710484 © AfDB/OECD 2008 African Economic Outlook 35 Overview North Africa Inflation in North Africa accelerated to 6.9 per cent in 2007 following a reduction to 3.6 per cent in... (ODA) to Africa, driven largely by debt relief and emergency assistance, increasing flows of foreign direct investment, and improving macroeconomic stability have all contributed to this positive economic outlook In addition, increased oil and mineral production in Southern and Central Africa and some improvements in the security situation are likely to boost growth in 2008 Inflation in net oil-importing... single-digit levels may well dampen growth Moreover, the GDP growth forecasts in this edition of the AEO are associated with increases in current-account deficits that result from sustained African Economic Outlook 13 Overview higher oil prices combined with a weakening of nonoil commodity prices Thus, another assumption underpinning the forecasts is that the additional funds required to finance the deficits... Mechanism has begun to provide a candid assessment of African countries and, thus, to foster progress in governance Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Algeria, and South Africa have already completed such a review The Outlook notes that progress towards democracy has stalled recently Fortunately, conflicts in some countries have started to subside Despite progress in macroeconomic management and the regulatory environment,... markets, but 1 This is the growth rate that would be achieved if all factors of production were fully employed and historical rates of total factor productivity improvement sustained African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 Overview became especially aggressive in the United States in early 2008 as the financial turmoil worsened Monetary policy is expected to revert towards neutral once growth momentum... Growth in OECD Countries —— United States —— European Union —— Total OECD % 5 4 15 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(e) 2008(p) 2009(p) Source: OECD (2007), OECD Economic Outlook, December 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/315542551370 OECD countries from about 21 per cent in 2006 and 2007 to about 22.5 per cent by 2009, continuing the trend of the past two decades Growth in... is expected to receive a boost from the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between African countries and the EU, interim agreements having been signed by most countries (See Box 1) African Economic Outlook Overview Box 1 - Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between EU and African Countries Negotiations on an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union and the African, Caribbean... (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and African Union) 2008 “Africa and the Monterrey Consensus: Tracking Performance and Progress.” Economic Report on Africa 2008 Addis Ababa African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 Overview Important regional integration measures in 2007 Regional integration is a key component of African development strategies Since the early 1960s, African countries have . Economic Outlook AfDB/OECD 2008 5 Table of Contents African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 6 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements The African Economic Outlook. concessional financing. African Economic Outlook © AfDB/OECD 2008 4 Foreword Foreword The African Economic Outlook project is a joint initiative of the