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Introduction to Modern Economic Growth effect on changes in life expectancy prior to this date (i.e., before the key interventions) This suggests that the large increases in life expectancy experience by many countries after 1940 were in fact related to the global health interventions Perhaps not surprisingly, Acemoglu and Johnson (2006) find that predicted mortality and the changes in life expectancy that it causes have a fairly large effect on population; a 1% increase in life expectancy is related to an approximately 1.3-1.8% increase in population However, there is no evidence of a positive effect on GDP per capita This is depicted in Figure 4.16, shows no convergence in income per capita between initially-poor, initially-middle-income and initially-rich countries Similarly, there appears to be no evidence of an increase in human capital investments associated with improvements in life expectancy 11 10 1930 1940 1950 Initially Poor 1960 1970 Initially Middle Income 1980 1990 2000 Initially Rich Figure 4.16 Evolution of GDP per capita among initially-poor, initially-middle-income and initially-rich countries, 1940-2000 Why did the very significant increases in life expectancy and health not cause improvements in GDP per capita? The most natural answer to this question comes from neoclassical growth theory (presented in the previous two chapters and in Chapter below) The first-order effect of increased life expectancy is to increase 205