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Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 e RAND Corporation is a nonprot institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. is electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation. CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY is report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research ndings and objective analysis that ad- dress the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Critical Materials Present Danger to U.S. Manufacturing RICHARD SILBERGLITT, JAMES T. BARTIS, BRIAN G. CHOW, DAVID L. AN, KYLE BRADY C O R P O R AT I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Prepared for the National Intelligence Council Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Critical Materials Present Danger to U.S. Manufacturing RichaRd SilbeRglitt, JameS t. baRtiS, bRian g. chow, david l. an, Kyle bRady The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/ publications/permissions.html). Published 2013 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-7883-4 The research described in this report was prepared for the National Intelligence Council. The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. iii Preface is report describes the results of a study of the sources and reliability of the supply of imported materials on which United States manufacturers are dependent. It should be of interest to a broad spectrum of individuals and organizations in the materials and manufacturing sectors as well as government, private sector, and non-prot organiza- tions involved with or concerned about those sectors. is research was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Insti- tute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Oce of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Sta, the Unied Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, see http://www. rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/intel.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). v Contents Preface iii Figures vii Tables ix Summary xi Acknowledgments xvii Abbreviations xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 Recent Analyses of Critical Raw Materials 2 Our Approach 4 CHAPTER TWO Concentration of Production of Critical Raw Materials 5 CHAPTER THREE China’s Role as a Controlling Producer 11 China’s Policies Cause Concern Among Its Customers 11 China’s Customers Pursue Relief at the World Trade Organization 15 CHAPTER FOUR Tungsten: Case Example of a Critical Raw Material 17 Uses and Importance of Tungsten 17 Tungsten Resources and Reserves 18 e Tungsten Supply Situation 18 Potential Impacts of the Tungsten Supply Situation 28 CHAPTER FIVE Conclusions and Response Options 31 Increasing Resiliency to Supply Disruptions or Market Distortions 32 Diversifying Production 33 vi Critical Materials: Present Danger to U.S. Manufacturing Long-Term Actions to Increase Resiliency 33 Foresight of Developing Problems 33 APPENDIXES A. Top ree Producers of the 41 EC Critical Raw Materials 35 B. e World’s Largest Tungsten Deposits 41 Bibliography 43 . ONE Introduction 1 Recent Analyses of Critical Raw Materials 2 Our Approach 4 CHAPTER TWO Concentration of Production of Critical Raw Materials 5 CHAPTER THREE China’s. Important Raw Materials 9 3.1. Chinese Two-Tier Pricing of Rare Earth Materials 14 A.1. Top ree Producers of the 41 EC Critical Raw Materials 35