Florida Results For 9/15/2012—9/16/2012 ppt

 1 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Executive Summary Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, and Capitol Correspondent conducted a telephone survey of 1,728 likely voters in the state of Florida on the afternoon and early even- ing of September 15 th and 16 th , 2012. The questions covered preference for a given presidential candidate, the Florida U.S. Senate Race between Connie Mack and Bill Nelson, and Gov- ernor Rick Scott’s performance rating. The full list of ques- tions are given on page 5. Overall, Romney holds a 47.7% to a 47.1% lead over Obama, with a margin of error of about 2.5%. The Romney lead of 0.6% is a decline of 0.7% from a 1.3% lead on September 2, 2012. The results are generally in line with recent polls from Rasmussen Reports (Obama +2), NBC/WSJ/Marist (Obama +5), AIR/McLaughlin (Romney +3), SurveyUSA (Obama +4), and PPP (Obama +1). The fig- ures reported in this report are more recent, being as of Sep- tember 15-16, 2012. Analysis How does the race look according to party? When looking at the presidential race according to party, Romney holds a 3 point lead among party adherents, with a two point lead in taking votes from the Democratic party. Romney also holds a 3.7% lead among individuals that are independent or unsure of their party affiliation. The results are reported on the following page. How about the race between Mack and Nelson? The race between Republican Connie Mack and Democrat Bill Nelson continues to be close, with the most recent poll results Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870  2 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 giving Mack a 42.7% to 41.5% lead. As has been the case so far, the race will likely be settled based on the unsure voters, representing about 16% of the total group of likely voters. The Poll asked about whether George Zimmerman is guilty in the death of Trevon Martin: how does this relate to the Presidential race? The George Zimmerman case breaks down distinctly when looking at the presidential race, with 73% of likely Obama voters indicating they think he is guilty of murder, whereas 80% of likely Romney voters indicating they do not think he is guilty of murder. Among likely voters that indicated they were unsure or didn’t know enough about the case, Rom- ney holds a 48%/45% or 51%/44% lead over likely Obama voters. How do likely voters feel about Rick Scott’s performance as Governor? Overall, voters are more negative on Rick Scott, with 40% giving him a negative rating, while 33% giving Party affiliation? / Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan? Democrat Republican Other/Unsure Obama Romney Other/Unsure Obama Romney Other/Unsure Obama Romney Other/Unsure 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Total 3.5% 11.7% 84.8% 2.5% 87.9% 9.6% 16.1% 43.8% 40.1% Presidential race according to party Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan? Obama Romney Other/Unsure Mack, Nelson, Other/Un 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Senate race Mack, Nelson, Other/Unsure? Mack Nelson Other/Unsure Margin of error is +/- 2.5%  3 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012 For 9/15/2012 – – 9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 him a positive rating; about 27% indicate they are unsure of his performance. The crosstabs results contain more information on the question. The poll asked about hypothetical matchup between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist and between Rick Scott and Buddy Dyer. What’s the story there? The results of the two questions are reported on the following page. Overall, in a hypothetical race between Rick Scott and Buddy Dyer, Rick Scott comes out ahead by a 13 point margin, 42% to 29%. In a hypothet- ical race between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist, Crist holds the lead at 44% to 42%. Is Zimmerman guilty in the death of Trevon Martin? / Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan? Guilty Not guilty Unsure Don't know enough Obama Romney Other/Unsure Obama Romney Other/Unsure Obama Romney Other/Unsure Obama Romney Other/Unsure 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % of Total 4.1% 23.1% 72.8% 3.5% 79.9% 16.6% 6.7% 48.2% 45.1% 4.8% 50.8% 44.4% Presidential race and the George Zimmerman case Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan? Obama Romney Other/Unsure  4 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer? Scott Dyer Other/U 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% % of Total 29.0% 29.4% 41.7% Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer? Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer? Scott Dyer Other/Unsure Rick Scott or Charlie Crist? Scott Crist Other/U 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% % of Total 14.1% 44.0% 41.9% Rick Scott or Charlie Crist? Rick Scott or Charlie Crist? Scott Crist Other/Unsure  5 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Is America headed in the right direction? When looking at this question according to party, two third of Democrats think America is on the right track, while over four fifths of Republicans think America is on the wrong track. Interestingly, about 60% of indi- viduals that do not identify themselves with a party think America is on the wrong track, while only 24% think the nation is on the right track. Party affiliation? / U.S. headed in the right direction? Democrat Republican Independent Right direction Wrong direction Unsure Right direction Wrong direction Unsure Right direction Wrong direction Unsure 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Total 17.6% 16.2% 66.2% 7.4% 82.8% 9.8% 16.2% 59.9% 23.9% U.S. headed in the right direction?  6 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 How does Gary Johnson impact the race? The inclusion of Gary Johnson in the race lowers Romney’s overall take from 47.7% to 46.7% and lowers Obama’s overall take from 47.1% to 45.5%. How do likely voters feel about Obama’s job performance in relation to age group? Overall, likely voters disapprove of Obama’s job performance by a 49% to 45% margin. When looking at the issue in relation to age group, Obama is approved by younger voters, while having a disapproval rating above 50% for all other age categories. Obama’s disapproval rating is highest among likely voters aged 50 and over, with a close second being likely voters aged 30 to 39. Interestingly, Obama’s disapproval rating doesn’t consistently get worse as the age group gets older, rather there’s a bump down in his disapproval rating among 40 to 49 year olds. Approve Disapprove Unsure/Other Approve Disapprove Unsure/Other Approve Disapprove Unsure/Other Approve Disapprove Unsure/Other % of Total Count of Approve of Obama's performanc 7.7% 38.1% 54.2% 3.7% 51.1% 45.3% 6.7% 48.0% 45.3% 5.3% 52.7% 42.0%  7 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/2012For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870 1. Are you a registered voter? 2. Do you plan on voting in the presidential election on November 6th? 3. Which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? 4. What’s your race? 5. What’s your religious affiliation? 6. What’s your age group? 18-29; 30-39; 40-49; 50+ 7. What’s your gender? 8. Do you approve of Barack Obama’s general performance as President? 9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? 10. If the election were held today, would you vote for Obama-Biden, Romney-Ryan, or note sure? 11. If the election were held today, would you vote for Obama, Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or someone else/ unsure? 12. Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction? 13. If the election were held today, would you vote for Connie Mack or Bill Nelson? 14. How would you rate Rick Scott’s job performance as Governor? 15. In a hypothetical race for Governor in 2014, would you vote for Republican Rick Scott or Democrat Charlie Crist? 16. In a hypothetical race for Governor in 2014, would you vote for Republican Rick Scott or Democrat Buddy Dyer? 17. Final question is concerning the State of Florida versus George Zimmerman: Do you believe that George Zim- merman is guilty or not guilty in the death of Trevon Martin? The results were weighted by the anticipated voting groups in the upcoming 2012 election. Party Affiliation Democrat 44.0% Independent/Other 17.6% Republican 38.4% Race Asian 3.3% Black 10.9% Hispanic 15.8% Other/Unsure 4.1% White 65.9% Religious Affiliation Catholic 29.0% Jewish 4.3% Muslim 2.6% Other/Unsure 20.6% Protestant/Other Christian 43.5% Age Group 18-29 16.4% 30-39 17.1% 40-49 19.3% 50+ 47.2% Gender Female 51.8% Male 48.2% Approve of Obama's Job Performance? Approve 45.2% Disapprove 49.2% Other/Unsure 5.7% Favorable Opinion of Romney? Favorable 43.9% Other/Unsure 10.8% Unfavorable 45.3% Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan Obama/Biden 47.1% Other/Unsure 5.3% Romney/Ryan 47.7% S ummar y Stats Obama, Romney, Johnson Johnson 3.5% Obama 45.5% Other/Unsure 4.3% Romney 46.7% U.S. Headed in the Right Direction? Right direction 36.1% Unsure 13.2% Wrong direction 50.7% Mack, Nelson, Other Mack 42.7% Nelson 41.5% Unsure/Other 15.8% Rick Scott's Job Performance Negative 39.9% Positive 32.9% Unsure/Other 27.3% Scott, Crist, Unsure? Crist 43.8% Scott 41.8% Unsure 14.4% Scott, Dyer, Unsure? Dyer 29.4% Scott 41.7% Unsure 29.0% Is George Zimmerman Guilty in the Trevon Martin Case? Guilty 33.3% Not familiar with the case 5.4% Not guilty 29.3% Unsure 31.9% Florida Crosstabs (Sep. 15-16, 2012) Monday September 17 13:58:17 2012 Page 1 log type: smcl opened on: 17 Sep 2012, 13:56:34 . tab2 partyaffiliation race religiousaffiliation agegroup gender approveofoba > masperformance favorableorunfavorableopinionofr obamabidenromneyryanorotheru > nsur obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure usheadedintherightdirection macknelsonoth > er rickscottsperformanceasgovernor hypothetical2014rickscottorcharl hypothet > ical2014rickscottorbuddy iszimmermanguiltyinthedeathoftre, cell chi2 lrchi2 > nofreq -> tabulation of partyaffiliation by race Party Race? affiliation? Asian Black Hispanic Other/Uns White > Total > Democrat 1.88 8.25 9.02 1.60 22.85 > 43.61 Independent/Other 0.49 1.11 2.96 1.32 11.74 > 17.62 Republican 0.91 1.57 3.80 1.15 31.35 > 38.77 > Total 3.27 10.94 15.78 4.08 65.94 > 100.00 Pearson chi2( 8 ) = 274.5378 Pr = 0.000 likelihood-ratio chi2( 8 ) = 278.3779 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of partyaffiliation by religiousaffiliation Party Religious affiliation? affiliation? Catholic Jewish Muslim Other/Uns Protestan > Total > Democrat 12.17 2.28 1.54 12.60 14.64 > 43.23 Independent/Other 5.68 0.86 0.68 4.21 6.28 > 17.71 Republican 11.17 1.18 0.39 3.75 22.56 > 39.06 > Total 29.03 4.32 2.61 20.56 43.48 > 100.00 Pearson chi2( 8 ) = 221.2770 Pr = 0.000 likelihood-ratio chi2( 8 ) = 232.6668 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of partyaffiliation by agegroup Party Age group? affiliation? 18-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total Democrat 7.42 7.93 7.78 19.77 42.90 Independent/Other 3.55 3.44 4.06 6.70 17.74 Republican 5.47 5.68 7.49 20.71 39.36 Total 16.44 17.05 19.33 47.18 100.00 [...]... performance? Mack, Nelson, Other? Mack Nelson Unsure/Ot Total Approve Disapprove Other/Unsure 4.08 37.28 1.35 33.84 5.63 2.06 6.18 7.69 1.90 44.10 50.59 5.31 Total 42.71 41.52 15.77 100.00 1.2e+03 1.4e+03 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 Pearson chi2( 4) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = -> tabulation of approveofobamasperformance by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor > Approve of Obama's performance? Rick Scott's performance... approveofobamasperformance by usheadedintherightdirection Approve of Obama's performance? U.S headed in the right direction? Right dir Unsure Wrong dir Total Approve Disapprove Other/Unsure 33.92 1.69 0.50 8.02 2.34 2.88 2.42 46.16 2.07 44.36 50.19 5.45 Total 36.11 13.24 50.65 100.00 2.1e+03 2.4e+03 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 Pearson chi2( 4) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = -> tabulation of approveofobamasperformance... approveofobamasperformance by hypothetical2014rickscottorbudd > y Approve of Obama's performance? Hypothetical 2014: Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer? Dyer Scott Unsure Total Approve Disapprove Other/Unsure 25.26 3.08 1.01 2.53 38.25 0.89 16.32 9.83 2.83 44.12 51.16 4.72 Total 29.35 41.67 28.98 100.00 1.3e+03 1.4e+03 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 Pearson chi2( 4) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = -> tabulation of approveofobamasperformance... Crosstabs (Sep 15-16, 2012) Pearson chi2( 8) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = Monday September 17 13:58:18 2012 59.7099 57.0657 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of race by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor Race? Rick Scott's performance as Governor? Negative Positive Unsure/Ot Total Asian Black Hispanic Other/Unsure White 1.29 4.54 6.11 1.93 26.02 0.88 3.02 3.62 1.05 24.29 1.29 2.41 4.30 0.76 18.50 3.46 9.97... Other/Unsure Protestant/Other Chri Male 48.16 100.00 29.6952 30.4346 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by approveofobamasperformance Religious affiliation? Catholic Jewish Muslim Other/Unsure Protestant/Other Chri Total Approve of Obama's performance? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total 12.34 2.13 1.51 14.00 15.21 14.66 1.80 1.14 5.36 26.19 1.87 0.37 0.00 0.99 2.42 28.88 4.30 2.65 20.35... Protestant/Other Chri 41.52 15.77 100.00 Pearson chi2( 8) = 247.3971 likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = 258.3294 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor Religious affiliation? Rick Scott's performance as Governor? Negative Positive Unsure/Ot Total 10.57 2.41 1.17 10.82 14.92 Total Pearson chi2( 8) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = 10.57 0.92 0.80 4.06 16.49 8.28 1.13... 16.25 17.12 19.41 47.22 Total 51.84 48.16 100.00 Pearson chi2( 3) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 3) = 6.3004 6.3115 Pr = 0.098 Pr = 0.097 -> tabulation of agegroup by approveofobamasperformance Age group? Approve of Obama's performance? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total 18-29 30-39 40-49 50+ 8.78 7.71 8.74 19.95 6.17 8.71 9.26 25.02 1.25 0.62 1.29 2.50 16.20 17.05 19.29 47.47 Total 45.19 49.16 5.66 100.00... 15.85 16.32 19.06 48.77 Total 42.71 41.52 15.77 100.00 Pearson chi2( 6) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = 34.3978 32.3187 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of agegroup by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor Age group? Rick Scott's performance as Governor? Negative Positive Unsure/Ot Total 18-29 30-39 40-49 50+ 7.04 6.84 8.20 17.81 4.02 4.54 5.79 18.50 4.70 4.74 5.07 12.75 15.76 16.12 19.06 49.06 Total 39.89 32.85... 15.60 18.91 50.19 Total 33.35 5.41 29.31 31.93 100.00 47.4231 47.7794 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 Pearson chi2( 9) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 9) = -> tabulation of gender by approveofobamasperformance Gender? Approve of Obama's performance? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total Female Male 25.64 19.54 22.34 26.82 3.67 1.98 51.65 48.35 Total 45.19 49.16 5.66 100.00 Pearson chi2( 2) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = 44.3403... 19.06 9.07 6.70 50.75 49.25 Total 42.71 41.52 15.77 100.00 Pearson chi2( 2) = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = 26.3564 26.4111 Pr = 0.000 Pr = 0.000 -> tabulation of gender by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor Gender? Rick Scott's performance as Governor? Negative Positive Unsure/Ot Total Female Male 20.35 19.54 14.84 18.01 15.52 11.74 50.70 49.30 Total 39.89 32.85 27.26 100.00 Pearson chi2( 2) = likelihood-ratio . poll results Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407 - -242242 - -1870 1870  2 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/201 2For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012 . Obama's performanc 7.7% 38.1% 54.2% 3.7% 51.1% 45.3% 6.7% 48.0% 45.3% 5.3% 52.7% 42.0%  7 Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 9/15/201 2For 9/15/2012 — —9/16/20129/16/2012