China’s International Behavior pot

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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. PROJECT AIR FORCE Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Evan S. Medeiros Activism, Opportunism, and Diversication China’s international Behavior The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Cover design by Carol Earnest. The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Medeiros, Evan S. China’s international behavior : activism, opportunism, and diversification / Evan S. Medeiros. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4709-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. China—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. National security—China. 3. China—Economic polcy—21st century. 4. China—Foreign relations—United States. 5. United States—Foreign relations—China. I. Title. JZ1730.A5M435 2009 327.51—dc22 2009026441 iii Preface e expanding scope of China’s international activities is one of the newest and most important trends in global affairs. China is increas- ingly present and involved in many parts of the world, including in regions once only marginal to Beijing’s interests. China’s global activ- ism has arisen so rapidly and has so many dimensions that it immedi- ately and naturally raises questions about China’s intentions and the implications for U.S. security interests. U.S. policymakers and strate- gists would like to understand more fully how China defines its inter- national objectives, how it is pursuing them, how effective it has been, and whether it seeks to undermine U.S. power and influence. To address these issues, this monograph analyzes the content, character, and execution of China’s international behavior. It examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its foreign policy objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the conse- quences for U.S. economic and security interests. e breadth and the rapidity of change in China’s international activities are daunting to analyze, let alone to understand. is monograph aims to make such assessments more accessible and meaningful. is research is relevant for U.S. policymakers and strategists who are focused on managing U.S China relations, on shaping Chi- nese diplomacy, and on ensuring that China’s global activism does not undercut U.S. foreign policy goals. is research also helps identify opportunities for the United States and China to broaden and deepen bilateral cooperation. iv China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification is monograph is part of a substantial and growing body of RAND Corporation research that examines the security implications for the United States of China’s growing power and influence—both as a military and as a diplomatic power. e research reported here was conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE and was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force’s Director of Operational Plans and Joint Matters (AF/A5X) and the Combatant Commander of the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC) for a study enti- tled “e U.S China Security Relationship: Taiwan and Beyond.” It builds on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work, including the following: Evan S. Medeiros, Keith Crane, Eric Heginbotham, Norman D. • Levin, Julia F. Lowell, Angel Rabassa, and Somi Seong, Pacific Currents: e Responses of U.S. Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to China’s Rise, MG-736-AF, 2008. Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael Chase, Derek Eaton, and Kevin • Pollpeter, Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies and eir Implications for the United States, MG-524-AF, 2007. Roger Cliff and David A. Shlapak, • U.S China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan’s Status, MG-567-AF, 2007. Evan S. Medeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane, and James C. • Mulvenon, A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry, MG-334-AF, 2005. Keith Crane, Roger Cliff, Evan S. Medeiros, James C. Mulvenon, • and William H. Overholt, Modernizing China’s Military: Oppor- tunities and Constraints, MG-260-AF, 2005. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and Preface v future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ vii Contents Preface iii Figures xi Tables xiii Summary xv Acknowledgments xxv Abbreviations xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction 1 CHAPTER TWO China’s Foreign Policy Outlook 7 e ree Lenses 7 National Revitalization 7 A Victim Mentality 10 Defensive Security Outlook 11 Long-Term Diplomatic Priorities 13 Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity 14 Economic Development 15 International Status 16 CHAPTER THREE Current Perceptions of the International Security Environment 19 Major Power Conflict 21 Globalization and Multipolarity 26 viii China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification Globalization 26 Multipolarity 27 U.S. Power and Great Power Relations 30 Nontraditional Security Challenges 36 Energy Insecurity 39 China’s Rise in International Affairs 41 CHAPTER FOUR China’s Foreign Policy Objectives 45 Understanding Official Policy 45 All-Around Diplomacy 46 Peace and Development 48 Harmonious World 48 Core Diplomatic Objectives 50 Economic Development 50 Reassurance 52 Countering Constraints 53 Expanding and Diversifying Access to Natural Resources 57 Reducing Taiwan’s International Space 59 CHAPTER FIVE China’s Expanding Diplomatic Toolkit 61 Economic Diplomacy 61 Multiple Tools 62 An Alternative Development Model? 70 Leadership Diplomacy 72 Multilateral Diplomacy 77 Strategic Partnerships 82 Military Diplomacy 89 CHAPTER SIX China’s Foreign Policy Actions 93 Policy Framework for Foreign Relations 93 Relations with Major Powers 95 United States 96 Russia 101 [...]... intelligence, and military bureaucracies hinder China’s ability to respond rapidly and effectively to crises with international dimensions (See pp 193–200.) xx China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification Key Findings about China’s International Behavior China has been largely working within—indeed, deftly leveraging— the current international system to accomplish its foreign... underlying China’s diplomacy will illuminate the future directions of China’s international behavior This monograph argues that China’s international behavior is best understood as comprising multiple layers with each one adding to the understanding of China’s current actions and future direction The layers are (1) the historically determined “lenses” through which Chinese policymakers view the world and China’s. .. secondary concern The reality of China’s international behavior could not be further from that For China, acting locally now requires that it think globally The links between domestic and international affairs for China have become stronger and have assumed new dimensions in the last decade, but it is this linkage that will continue to drive China’s international behavior China’s twin goals of maintaining... China’s role in it, (2) China’s perceptions of its current international security environment, (3) China’s foreign policy objectives, and (4) China’s specific foreign policy actions in pursuit of its objectives (Figure 1.1) Given the breadth and rapidity of change in China’s international behavior, this approach is meant to provide an analytic framework, a model of sorts, for assessing China’s current and... diplomacy because it is a relatively new and important part of China’s effort to shape its external security environment (Chapter Five) 4 China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification Figure 1.1 Graphical Depiction of China’s International Behavior Foreign policy actions Foreign policy objectives Perceptions of the international security environment Foreign policy outlook Historical... interests and actions China’s official characterizations of its foreign policy understate the various layers of perceptions, motivations, and policies that collectively constitute China’s international behavior In doing so, they fail to capture the dynamism of China’s foreign affairs, which, in turn, obscures external understandings of Chinese behaviors Therefore, to answer questions about China’s current... and evaluates the implications for U.S interests and U.S policy China’s Foreign Policy Outlook China’s international behavior is influenced by at least three historically determined lenses that color and shade its perceptions of its security environment and its role in global affairs First, China is in the xv xvi China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification process of... existing constellation of norms, rules, and institutions of the international community; by and large, China is already there It is influencing perceptions, relationships, and organizations all over the world China’s international behavior is clearly altering the dynamics of the current international system, but it is not transforming its structure China’s global activism is driven by an identifiable set... clearly have objectives in mind, but they are groping their way forward with newfound power, influence, responsibilities, expectations, and constraints China’s international behavior is increasingly driven, as well as constrained, by xxii China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification both domestic imperatives and a dynamic global security environment Chinese foreign policy reflects... and analysts contemplate China’s role in global affairs These lenses, which are largely derived from Chinese history as well as its long-standing national priorities, both reflect and inform Chinese biases that pervade its foreign policymaking These are presented as enduring features of China’s international behavior Chapter Three explores China’s perceptions of its current international security environment . 220 Bibliography 225 xi Figures 1.1. Graphical Depiction of China’s International Behavior 4 5.1. China’s Annual Outward Direct Investment, 1990–2007 67 . China’s international behavior is clearly altering the dynamics of the current international system, but it is not transforming its structure. China’s