INTRODUCTION
Higher education standards significantly impact economic competitiveness, national security, and social well-being Enhanced educational attainment is essential for boosting the nation's economic performance, as highlighted by Schwab (2013) A recent report from the Council on Foreign Relations emphasizes the detrimental effects of low educational attainment levels on these critical areas.
The future economic prosperity, global standing, and physical safety of the United States are jeopardized by educational shortcomings (Council on Foreign Relations, 2012) Research indicates that higher educational attainment is linked to numerous positive outcomes, including reduced unemployment rates, increased income levels, greater volunteer participation, lower crime rates, and improved overall well-being (Aud et al., 2013; Devereux & Fan, 2011; Brand, 2010; Dee, 2003; Haveman & Wolfe, 1984; Lochner, 2004; Oreopoulos & Salvanes, 2011).
Oreopoulous, 2007) As a result, President Obama, the nation’s governors, and philanthropic organizations recently initiated a number of reforms with the goals of improving students’ college readiness and degree completion rates
The education pipeline perspective emphasizes the interconnectedness of high school dropout rates, college access, and completion, framing them as a cohesive pathway to educational attainment (Ewell, Jones, & Kelly, 2003) This approach is increasingly recognized in education policy, particularly with the implementation of Common Core standards aimed at preparing students for college and careers Initiatives like “P20” or “K16” promote collaboration between K-12 and higher education to enhance overall educational outcomes However, existing research often overlooks the unique experiences of recent high school graduates, focusing instead on general undergraduate trends This dissertation aims to fill that gap by investigating how these graduates navigate the education pipeline and the factors influencing their progression toward graduation and beyond, thereby contributing valuable insights to P20 policy efforts.
The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) has played a crucial role in developing the education pipeline framework, which encompasses both K-12 and postsecondary education This framework analyzes student progression through critical transition points, typically starting from 9th grade Key metrics for assessing student progress include: high school graduation within four years, immediate enrollment in college following graduation, persistence during the first year of college, and the completion of an associate's or bachelor's degree.
Transition points in education are critical for understanding student retention, as they represent key moments where students often leave the educational pipeline These points offer opportunities for state and local governments to implement effective public policies aimed at improving student outcomes However, analyzing education through this pipeline perspective presents significant challenges, primarily due to the lack of tracking of individual student progress by many states and the federal government between K-12 and postsecondary education Consequently, there is a scarcity of studies that utilize this framework to assess educational attainment.
Many studies on student persistence and degree completion concentrate on enrolled college students, exploring how academic and social integration within the college community influences bachelor’s degree attainment (Astin, 1993; Bean, 1980; Bean & Metzner, 1985; Tinto, 1975, 1993; Cabrera, Nora, & Castaneda, 1993) These theories examine the interplay between student background characteristics and their integration on campus, impacting their decision to persist and graduate Additionally, another perspective highlights the importance of aligning institutional characteristics with student traits as a key factor affecting persistence and completion (Spady, 1970; Meyer, 1970; Kamens, 1971; Tinto, 1993; Berge & Milem, 2000; Titus, 2006).
Research indicates that academic achievement and student background characteristics are critical factors influencing college completion rates Key indicators of academic success typically include GPA and standardized test scores, which are often analyzed individually or together Theoretical frameworks and empirical studies support the notion that a student's academic ability significantly impacts their likelihood of completing a bachelor's degree.
Research has examined how student background characteristics, such as minority status, gender, socioeconomic status (SES), and educational aspirations, influence degree completion While theoretical literature indicates a connection between these factors and academic success, the findings regarding their actual significance are inconsistent (Adelman, 2005).
DesJardins, Kim, & Rzonca, 2003; Titus, 2006; Adelman, 1999, 2006; Cabrera, Burkum, & La Nasa, 2005)
College experiences, alongside academic performance and student demographics, significantly influence degree completion rates (Bowe et al., 2009) Factors such as part-time enrollment, delayed entry, and transferring between institutions play a crucial role in shaping these experiences Research indicates that part-time and delayed enrollment correlate with lower graduation rates, while transferring from a two-year to a four-year college enhances the likelihood of earning a degree (Bowen et al., 2009; Adelman, 1999, 2006) Although the impact of transferring from a four-year institution is less studied, Adelman (2006) suggests a positive relationship with obtaining a bachelor's degree.
Student factors influencing degree completion are intertwined with the institutional context and the state in which they reside The type of institution a student attends plays a crucial role in shaping their academic experience, as it can either limit or enhance access to resources and opportunities Research indicates that characteristics such as whether an institution is public or private, its enrollment size, financial resources, and social attributes significantly impact bachelor’s degree completion rates.
Wellman, 2010; Titus, 2006; DesJardins, et al., 2003; Bowen et al., 2009; Titus, 2004; Stumpf & Stanley, 2002) Others have found that the characteristics of a state’s postsecondary system may affect state bachelor’s degree production (Titus, 2009)
Few studies utilizing nationally representative data and an education pipeline perspective have examined bachelor’s degree completion Research by Bound, Lovenheim, and Turner (2009) highlighted that while enrollment in four-year degree programs has risen over the decades, the completion rates for first-time students have declined For instance, among the high school graduating cohort of 1972, 48% enrolled in college, yet only 51% of those earned a bachelor's degree within eight years.
2009) However, the cohort of 1992 high school graduates earned bachelor’s degrees at a lower rate Although 71% enrolled in college, just 46% of those who enrolled completed a bachelor’s within 8 years (Bound et al., 2009) 2
Adelman’s research (2006, 1999) analyzed the connection between student background characteristics, high school performance, and postsecondary attendance patterns with bachelor’s degree completion, utilizing nationally representative data from HS&B:80 and NELS:88 Although his study did not focus on the transition from high school to college, it highlighted the importance of factors influencing student persistence into the second year of college and the attainment of a bachelor’s degree His findings indicated that higher academic achievement in high school significantly increases the likelihood of earning a degree, while frequent transfers negatively impact bachelor’s completion rates.
1 Data are from NCES studies NLS:72 and NELS:88
2 During this time the total number of first‐time, full‐time degree recipients per year increased by 156,000
(672,000 versus 828,000) due to the increasing enrollment rate
This dissertation investigates the education pipeline and the impact of student, institutional, and state factors on bachelor's degree completion It analyzes the progression of two student cohorts from the 1990s and 2000s from high school to college, employing logistic regression and path analyses to identify key factors influencing degree attainment Building on the research of Adelman (2006) and Bound, Lovenheim, and Turner (2009), this study utilizes the latest national data from the 2004 cohort of high school seniors to explore the connections between academic achievement, student background, college experiences, institutional characteristics, and state characteristics in relation to bachelor's degree completion.
This study has the following three objectives:
The education pipeline for bachelor's degree completion has evolved over time, reflecting changes in the demographics and characteristics of students enrolling on-time in four-year institutions Additionally, there are notable differences in student characteristics based on their college experiences, highlighting the diverse backgrounds and challenges faced by today’s learners.
This study investigates the link between completing a bachelor's degree and high school academic performance, while also considering various factors such as college experiences, student characteristics, institutional influences, and state-specific attributes, utilizing the latest available data.
3 Examine to what extent the college experiences of transfer and part‐time enrollment mediate bachelor’s degree completion/high school academic achievement relationship
This study uses restricted‐use data from two National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) longitudinal studies: 1) the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), and
LITERATURE REVIEW
This chapter analyzes key theoretical frameworks and empirical research on factors influencing bachelor’s degree completion, focusing on student, institutional, and state variables It highlights general predictors of completion while also addressing emerging studies that examine the educational pipeline and historical trends in these predictors Additionally, the literature review concludes with an overview of education policies impacting high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion, suggesting that shifts in these policies may correlate with changes in the relationships between outcomes and independent variables over time.
Theoretical Perspectives on College Student Outcomes
The theoretical models that inform this study can be divided into two camps:
Interactionism is a theoretical perspective that explores how social processes, including college persistence and completion, emerge from everyday human interactions A key aspect of the college completion process involves a student's interactions with faculty and peers within the college environment On the other hand, organizational theory examines formal social organizations, such as colleges and universities, and the behaviors of individuals within these settings This includes understanding the rationale and regulations that govern how college administrators manage financial resources.
4 An organization is a social unit of people that is structured and managed to pursue a collective goal (Daft
Combining the interactionist and organizational perspectives provides a comprehensive understanding of how student behavior and institutional actions influence the completion process at colleges (Armstrong, 2009).
Research on student persistence and degree completion often utilizes interactionist frameworks that highlight the significance of social and academic interactions in shaping college experiences Early studies indicated that dropout decisions were influenced by a combination of psychological, familial, social, and economic factors This foundational work proposed that motivation, academic ability, attitudes, and satisfaction are not fixed traits; rather, they can be influenced to help decrease student attrition Summerskill (1962) applied psychological and sociological theories to identify key student characteristics related to retention, laying the groundwork for future theoretical models of student retention, such as those developed by Spady.
Spady (1970) and Tinto (1987, 1993) utilized Durkheim’s theory of social integration to emphasize that students who engage more deeply in their college's academic and social communities are more likely to persist and graduate The degree of this integration depends on the interaction between students and the college's systems Their research advocates for an interdisciplinary and longitudinal approach to studying student retention, highlighting key factors such as involvement, intentions, habits, values, expectations, residence, and employment Additionally, interactionist models have integrated organizational elements like school values and support services, making them more applicable for analyzing individual institutions.
Organizational‐level variables were first included in models of student outcomes in order to account for the effects of socialization conditions across colleges For instance, Myer
In 1970, it was argued that the institutional values of a college significantly shape students' personal values, personalities, and social roles Building on this foundation, Kamens (1971) examined how the size and prestige of an institution impact student outcomes, furthering the understanding of these influences on student development.
Larger schools tend to limit student interaction with the organization, reducing their potential to inspire change, as noted by Kamens (1971) Additionally, the prestige associated with college membership enhances its social significance, leading to greater student commitment.
Researchers have explored the impact of organizational behavior on student attrition, drawing parallels with broader theories of employee turnover In 1980, Bean developed a path model of student attrition that integrated concepts related to organizational turnover, as proposed by Price.
In 1977, research indicated that the factors leading to employee turnover mirrored those causing student attrition in colleges, emphasizing the influence of organizational characteristics such as peer groups, faculty composition, activities, and support services on student retention Bean (1980) noted that not all student attrition is negative, as it can reflect students discovering more suitable paths to their goals His findings also revealed gender differences in dropout reasons, suggesting that men and women leave college for distinct motivations However, Bean's model had limitations, as it overlooked organizational factors like size and sector, and was primarily applicable to individual institutions.
Berger and Milem (2000) broadened the organizational perspective on college experiences by developing a conceptual model that examines student outcomes across multiple postsecondary institutions This model incorporates individual student characteristics and categorizes college-level factors into structural components—such as enrollment size, selectivity, control, and peer climate—and behavioral components, including bureaucratic, collegial, political, symbolic, and systemic elements The authors emphasize the importance of integrating both college and student characteristics in predictive models of college experiences and completion rates.
Factors Related to College Completion
This section reviews literature on student and institutional variables influencing bachelor’s degree completion Student variables are categorized into five key areas: college experiences, academic achievement (including high school GPA and standardized test scores), background characteristics (such as gender, minority status, socioeconomic status, and educational aspirations), and institutional characteristics (including public/private control, total enrollment, financial expenditures, and campus social environment) Additionally, state characteristics are considered, focusing on the proportions of postsecondary enrollment in two-year and private institutions.
Research indicates that a student's experiences on a college campus significantly influence their satisfaction, learning, persistence, and completion rates These experiences are crucial to both interactionist and organizational theories of student persistence and completion, which suggest that a student's integration into academic and social communities is influenced by their college experiences While numerous factors affect persistence and completion, this article highlights three key areas of research: transfer processes, full-time versus part-time enrollment intensity, and the impact of delaying enrollment into college.
Transfer is commonly understood as the process of starting college at a two-year institution and then permanently moving to a four-year institution to earn a bachelor’s degree This concept is crucial to the mission of most two-year colleges, which accounted for 49% of all first-time students from 1972 to 2005 Researchers and policymakers often use this traditional definition of transfer as a benchmark for assessing student success and the effectiveness of two-year colleges.
Students have the option to transfer between institutions of the same level, including moving from one four-year institution to another or from a four-year institution to a two-year institution However, research on these types of transfers is limited compared to the more commonly studied transfers across different educational levels Notably, a study by Adelman (2006) highlighted that students who frequently transfer, a trend referred to as "swirling," are significantly less likely to complete their bachelor's degree.
Transfer students predominantly consist of freshmen and sophomores, with a significant representation of minorities, low-income individuals, first-generation college students, and those who are less academically prepared, typically enrolled full-time Notably, 43% of students starting at two-year institutions transfer, while 28% of those beginning at four-year institutions also make the switch Additionally, 12% of all undergraduates have transferred more than three times, highlighting the dynamic nature of student mobility in higher education.
RESEARCH DESIGN
Purpose, Research Questions, and Objectives
This study aims to explore trends in the college pipeline and the link between academic achievement and the likelihood of completing a bachelor’s degree It begins by analyzing changes in the demographics of students enrolling on-time in four-year colleges and the high school to college transition from 1992 to 2004 Utilizing recent nationally representative data, the study assesses the relationships among high school GPA, SAT scores, and bachelor’s degree completion Additionally, it incorporates the experience of transferring from a four-year institution as an intermediate outcome to understand how high school GPA and test scores influence college completion The chapter outlines the research questions, data sources, and analytical methods employed for each inquiry.
This study focuses on three research questions:
Between 1992 and 2004, the education pipeline from high school to college underwent significant changes, impacting the characteristics of graduates who enroll in four-year institutions on time Over this period, shifts in demographics, academic preparedness, and socioeconomic factors influenced the profiles of students pursuing higher education Furthermore, variations in students' characteristics emerged based on their college experiences, highlighting the diverse pathways and challenges faced by different groups of enrollees.
2 What is the relationship between bachelor’s degree completion within six years and high school academic achievement for students from the 2004 senior cohort enrolling on‐time at four‐year colleges?
This article explores how transferring colleges and part-time enrollment influence the connection between high school academic achievement and completing a bachelor’s degree within six years It highlights the significance of these experiences in shaping educational outcomes for students Understanding these mediating factors can provide insights into the challenges faced by students in achieving timely degree completion.
The first research question aims to describe the progression of high school students through the college pipeline over time, employing a descriptive analysis The second question utilizes regression analysis to examine the relationship between college completion, the dependent variable, and various independent variables, focusing on bachelor’s degree completion through logistic regression techniques Lastly, the third question involves path analysis, derived from multiple regression analyses, to further explore these relationships.
This dissertation utilizes data from three national datasets: two longitudinal studies, the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) and the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), along with the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) This section details the sampling methods, weighting procedures, data collection processes, and the questionnaires employed in these studies.
The National Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program (NSLP) encompasses five key studies—NLS:72, HS&B:80, NELS:88, ELS:2002, and HSLS:09—that examine the educational journeys of high school students in the United States These studies track students into their postsecondary years and were initiated by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in the 1970s The primary objective of the NSLP is to analyze the educational, vocational, and personal development of students throughout their academic careers, along with the various factors influencing their growth.
Four longitudinal studies conducted in 2013 track individual students over time to analyze educational outcomes in the U.S These studies utilize multiple surveys to gather data during high school, two years post-graduation, and seven to ten years after 12th grade The findings from these studies provide valuable insights into the factors influencing educational success.
Figure 3.1 Time period covered by the National Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program (NSLP) studies used in this dissertation: NELS:88 & ELS:2002 senior cohorts
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, 2013
This study analyzes restricted-use data from the NELS:88 and ELS:2002, which track student educational trajectories from 1992 to 2012 Both studies conducted surveys with students, parents, teachers, and school administrators, while also gathering transcript information from high schools and colleges The surveys address various topics, including school, work, and home experiences, the educational roles of parents and peers, educational aspirations, student perceptions, work experiences, postsecondary education experiences, and educational attainment Each study aims to provide a nationally representative sample of U.S high school seniors.
The ELS:2002 data collection commenced in spring 2002, employing a two-stage probability sampling method to select 17,590 high school sophomores from 750 schools This sample was updated during the senior year follow-up survey in 2004, ensuring a nationally representative group of high school seniors Additional follow-ups conducted two years after graduation in 2006 and a third in 2012 gathered data on students’ employment and postsecondary outcomes.
The NELS:88 data collection began in spring 1988 with a two-stage probability sample of 26,430 eighth graders from 1,050 schools Follow-up surveys were conducted during the students' sophomore year in 1990 and senior year in 1992, with the senior sample updated to include new high school seniors Additional follow-up surveys took place in 1994 and 2000 to gather information on employment and postsecondary outcomes.
The ELS:2002 and NELS:88 questionnaires share similar items across cohorts, facilitating trend analysis (Ingels et al., 2007) This study selected variables based on their comparability across cohorts The NELS:88 Second Follow-up Student Component Data File User’s Manual provides a cross-walk of identical items from the NELS:88, HS&B:80, and NLS:72 questionnaires (Ingels et al., 1994) Data for this dissertation encompasses three waves from each study.
1) The high school senior follow‐up and high school transcript study which includes student background, high school experiences, grades, standardized test scores, and graduation status;
2) The two‐year post‐high school follow‐up survey provides data on students’ college experiences;
3) The final follow‐up survey and postsecondary education transcript data on student outcomes;
The NELS:88 and ELS:2002 studies track high school students during their sophomore and senior years, as well as two and eight years post-graduation This analysis focuses on those who attain a bachelor’s degree within six years of graduating high school, aligning with common measures used by scholars and policymakers Students graduating after this six-year period are recoded as non-graduates, which minimally impacts overall completion rates, as only 9.5% in ELS:2002 and 6.5% in NELS:88 graduate beyond this timeframe.
I integrated IPEDS data with NSLP datasets to gather insights on the college characteristics of students' first institutions The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), administered by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), collects comprehensive information from all postsecondary institutions participating in federal student financial aid programs These institutions are required to report data on various aspects, including enrollment, completion rates, graduation rates, faculty and staff statistics, finances, and financial aid.
This small group of students is analyzed in relation to graduation rates over a six-year period, with descriptive statistics provided in Appendices A and B The data focuses on students from the 1992-93 and 2004-2005 academic years, aligning with the NELS:88 and ELS:2002 senior cohorts.
While each study aimed to deliver comparable insights on students over time, there are limitations in making cross-cohort comparisons due to variations in wording and response options across the three studies Despite careful selection of variables for this research, these discrepancies can affect the reliability of the data.
FINDINGS
This chapter is divided into three sections, each corresponding to specific research questions The first section analyzes the changes in the population of high school graduates who enrolled on time in four-year colleges in 2004 compared to 1992, providing descriptive statistics on their college outcomes, experiences, and characteristics, alongside their academic and background information The second section presents logistic regression model results, focusing on six-year bachelor’s degree completion and transfer status, examining the impact of academic achievement, student background, college, and state characteristics Finally, the third section utilizes path analysis to assess how the experience of transferring colleges influences the relationship between bachelor’s degree completion and academic achievement.
Between 1992 and 2004, the education pipeline from high school to college underwent significant changes, impacting the characteristics of high school graduates who enroll on time in four-year colleges Over this period, trends indicate a shift in the demographics and preparedness of students entering higher education Furthermore, variations in students' characteristics can be observed based on their college experiences, highlighting the evolving landscape of post-secondary education and its accessibility.
To analyze the transition from high school to college, I examined the progression of high school seniors from the 1992 and 2004 cohorts, focusing on their enrollment and completion rates in college I compared the descriptive statistics of these two groups, specifically looking at the 2004 cohort's experiences, including distinctions between part-time and full-time students, as well as those who transferred institutions versus those who remained at a single college.
In 2004, the senior cohort comprised 2.8 million students, with data illustrating their progression through the college pipeline For every 100 seniors in this cohort, 94 graduated in May or June of that year Among these graduates, 90% (or 85 students) enrolled in college, and of those, 80% (68 students) started their college education on time Notably, 90% of the students who enrolled on time had complete data available for analysis.
(61 seniors) Of students with complete data, 67% enrolled in a four‐year college on‐time (41 seniors) Of students that enrolled in a four‐year college on time, 59% graduated within six years
(24 seniors) Overall, this chart illustrates that for every 100 high school seniors in 2004, 24 earn a bachelor’s degree within six years of entering college through the four‐year college pipeline
In 1992, the senior cohort comprised 2.5 million students, with 86% graduating high school by May or June Among these graduates, 88% enrolled in college, and of those, 86% started their college education on time Notably, 97% of students who enrolled on time had complete data, revealing that 63% of them attended a four-year college Furthermore, 64% of students who enrolled in a four-year college on time graduated within six years This data highlights the educational progression of high school seniors in 1992, illustrating the pathways from graduation to college enrollment and eventual graduation.
26 earn a bachelor’s degree within six years of entering college through the four‐year college pipeline
Figure 4.1 College pipeline for 100 typical high school seniors in 2004 and 1992
Notes: The 2004 senior cohort size was 2.8 million students The 1992 senior cohort size was 2.5 million students (a) Students who enrolled on‐time in a four‐year college
Sources: National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 1011
Nineteen out of twenty students from the ELS:2002 cohort who did not enroll on time in a four-year college instead enrolled on time in a two-year college, while one student opted for a less-than-two-year college Notably, three students who enrolled on time in a two-year college successfully earned a bachelor's degree within six years.
Out of the twenty-three students in the NELS:88 study who did not enroll on time in a four-year college, twenty-two successfully enrolled in a two-year college on time, while one student opted for a less-than-two-year college Notably, four of those who enrolled on time in a two-year college went on to earn a bachelor’s degree within six years.
Between 1992 and 2004, the number of students earning a bachelor's degree on time increased, driven by a larger cohort size and improved high school graduation rates In the 2004 cohort, 672,000 students obtained a bachelor's degree within six years, compared to 650,000 in 1992 The rise in the number of seniors, from 2.5 million in 1992 to 2.8 million in 2004, along with higher rates of timely high school graduation and enrollment in four-year institutions, contributed to this growth, even as the overall college graduation rate declined.
A comparative analysis of high school graduation and college enrollment rates reveals significant differences between the 2004 and 1992 cohorts In 2004, 94% of seniors graduated on time, compared to 86% in 1992 Furthermore, 90% of 2004 graduates enrolled in college, up from 88% in 1992 However, the 2004 cohort saw a decline in on-time college enrollment, with only 80% enrolling promptly, compared to 86% in 1992 These trends indicate that the increase in college enrollment rates for the 2004 cohort was largely due to high school graduates delaying their entry into postsecondary education.
The analysis reveals nuanced differences in college success rates between the 2004 and 1992 cohorts Specifically, 24% of high school seniors in the 2004 cohort obtained a bachelor’s degree within six years of graduation, slightly lower than the 26% in the 1992 cohort Additionally, a higher percentage of students from the 2004 cohort enrolled on time in four-year colleges compared to their 1992 counterparts.
Between 1992 and 2004, the six-year graduation rate for students who enrolled on-time in four-year colleges decreased, with only 59% of the 2004 cohort graduating compared to 64% of the 1992 cohort This indicates a decline in graduation rates for on-time enrollees over this period.
Figure 4.2 highlights the trend of high school graduates who enrolled on-time in postsecondary education, revealing that a significant majority, 80% from the ELS:2002 cohort and 86% from the NELS:88 cohort, pursued college immediately after graduation Notably, around two-thirds of these on-time enrollees chose four-year institutions Consequently, the following analyses will concentrate on students who enrolled on-time specifically in four-year colleges.
Figure 4.2 Distribution of On‐time College Enrollees by Type of Postsecondary Institution: High School Graduates in 2004 and 1992
Note: In the 2004 senior cohort, 80% of college participants enrolled on‐time In the 1992 senior cohort, 86% of college participants enrolled on‐time
Sources: National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002; National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988
Characteristics of On ‐ Time Four ‐ year College Enrollees Characteristics of the ELS:2002 Analytic Sample
This section analyzes a sample of high school seniors who graduated on time, had complete data on key outcomes, and enrolled in a four-year college without delay As illustrated in Table 4.1, the descriptive statistics provide insights into bachelor’s degree completion rates, along with the means, standard deviations, and missing data rates for the mediator and predictor variables relevant to Research Question 2.
The study reveals that 59% of high school graduates who enrolled in a four-year college immediately after graduation earned a bachelor's degree within six years Most students attended full-time, with only 4% enrolled part-time, and approximately 17% transferred at least once during their college journey Academic achievement was assessed through unweighted GPAs, averaging 3.21, and SAT scores, averaging 1,068 The sample comprised 30% minorities and 45% males, with participants generally exhibiting a higher socioeconomic status than the average high school senior Notably, 96% of the students aimed to obtain a bachelor's degree or higher.
The majority of students, accounting for 68%, are enrolled in public institutions, while 29% are in private non-profit schools, and only 3% attend for-profit institutions Typically, these students are enrolled in four-year colleges, which have an average undergraduate enrollment of approximately 11,900 students.
CONCLUSION
This chapter summarizes the study's purpose and findings, highlighting their implications for policy, practice, and future research The dissertation aimed to investigate changes in the college pipeline and analyze the correlation between high school academic achievement and bachelor’s degree completion for students who enroll on time in four-year institutions The study's objectives were clearly defined to address these critical issues.
Recent analysis reveals that the education pipeline for achieving a bachelor's degree has evolved, highlighting shifts in the demographics and characteristics of students enrolling on time in four-year institutions Additionally, it is evident that students' traits vary significantly based on their college experiences, indicating a need for tailored support and resources to enhance degree completion rates.
2 Explore the relationship between bachelor’s degree completion and high school academic achievement after accounting student, institutional, and state characteristics and student experiences in college; and
3 Examine to what extent the experience of transferring colleges mediates the bachelor’s degree completion/academic achievement relationship
In the second chapter, I examined the existing literature on predictors of college completion, revealing a scarcity of studies focused on changes in the education pipeline and the demographics of students enrolling in four-year colleges over time Nevertheless, I identified relevant theoretical and empirical research that explores the interplay between college completion and various factors, including student characteristics, institutional influences, and state policies My conceptual model, derived from this literature, suggests that college experiences significantly mediate the relationship between college completion and student-level factors such as academic achievement However, I found no studies investigating the extent to which college experiences, such as transfer processes, mediate the relationship between college completion and high school academic achievement This dissertation addresses this critical gap in the research.
The third chapter details the data, sample, and analytical methods employed in this study, utilizing information from two nationally representative longitudinal studies of high school students, ELS:2002 and NELS:88 The initial focus is on describing the college pipeline and the demographic of on-time four-year college enrollees over time, followed by the development of logistic regression models to examine the relationship between academic achievement and bachelor’s degree completion.
The fourth chapter focused on achieving the three research objectives, featuring a descriptive analysis of the college pipeline for high school seniors using data from ELS:2002 and NELS:88 Additionally, it included a comparative analysis of the population of on-time four-year college enrollees from 2004.
In 1992, a study was conducted to analyze the college experiences of students from the 2004 cohort who enrolled on time in a four-year college Logistic regression models were employed to examine the relationship between academic achievement and bachelor’s degree completion These regression results facilitated the creation of a path analysis, which broke down the connection between academic achievement and degree completion into direct and indirect components, particularly through the transfer pathway Key findings from these analyses are summarized below.
Summary of Findings and their Implications
The 2004 senior cohort, despite having a lower six-year graduation rate, achieved a higher total number of bachelor’s degrees compared to the 1992 cohort The college pipeline experienced notable changes between these years, with 2.8 million high school seniors in 2004, up from 2.5 million in 1992 Additionally, a higher percentage of the 2004 seniors graduated high school (94%) compared to their 1992 counterparts (86%), and more of them enrolled in college (90% versus 88%) However, it is important to note that a smaller percentage of the 2004 cohort enrolled in college on-time.
1992 cohort (80% versus 86%), which implies an increase in share of students in the later cohort delaying enrollment Of students that enrolled in college on‐time, a larger percentage of the
The 2004 senior cohort had a higher enrollment rate in four-year institutions at 67%, compared to 63% in 1992 However, their six-year graduation rate was lower, with 59% graduating versus 64% from the earlier cohort Despite this decline in graduation rates, the 2004 cohort achieved a greater total of bachelor's degrees awarded, with 672,000 degrees compared to 650,000 in 1992.
The characteristics of students enrolling on‐time in a four year college changed between
A comparative analysis of college enrollees from the 1992 and 2004 senior cohorts reveals notable differences in their college experiences and background characteristics The 2004 cohort exhibited a lower transfer rate at 17% compared to 22% in 1992, while a slightly higher percentage enrolled part-time (4% versus 3%) Academic achievement also varied, with the 2004 cohort achieving a higher average high school GPA of 3.21, although their SAT scores remained statistically similar to those of the 1992 cohort Additionally, demographic shifts were evident, as the 2004 cohort included a greater percentage of minority students (30% versus 23%) and those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (0.33 versus 0.40), alongside increased educational aspirations, with 97% aiming for a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 95% in 1992.
The characteristics of the average college student have evolved, with ELS:2002 data revealing a decrease in attendance at private non-profit schools (29% compared to 33% in NELS:88) and an increase in enrollment at private for-profit institutions (3% versus 0%) Additionally, the typical college in 2004 had a larger enrollment of 11,900 students, a reduction in part-time students (17% down from 19%), a higher percentage of minority students (27% versus 23%), and an improved student-to-faculty ratio of 13 compared to 21 in previous years.
1992 The percent of state postsecondary enrollment in two‐year institutions and private instructions remained similar across time
In 2004, the majority of high school graduates who enrolled on-time in four-year colleges experienced full-time enrollment at a single institution (80%), while 16% enrolled full-time and transferred Part-time enrollment was less common, with only 3% enrolling part-time in one institution and 1% enrolling part-time and transferring Students who attended one institution full-time had a significantly higher bachelor’s degree completion rate of 65%, along with superior academic performance (3.26 HS GPA and 1,081 SAT score), socioeconomic status (SES of 0.36), and educational aspirations (97% aiming for a bachelor’s degree or higher) This group was predominantly female (55%) and white (71%) Conversely, part-time students exhibited the lowest completion rates (12%), academic achievement (2.69 HS GPA and 906 SAT score), SES (-0.01), and educational aspirations (90% aspiring to a bachelor’s degree or higher), with a higher likelihood of being male (57%) and minorities (38%).
Average students' college characteristics vary based on their experiences, with part-time students predominantly attending public institutions (80%) and colleges with larger undergraduate enrollments averaging 12,370 students These institutions typically have lower financial expenditures per student, around $12,130, and higher student-to-faculty ratios of 18 Additionally, part-time students often find themselves in colleges where the student body consists of a significant percentage of part-time (34%) and minority students (30%).
Transfer students predominantly originate from public four-year institutions, with a significant number transitioning to public two-year colleges Specifically, 67% of these students started at public colleges, while 31% began at private non-profit institutions and only 3% at private for-profit colleges When transferring, 47% moved to public two-year colleges, 35% to public four-year institutions, 12% to private non-profit four-year colleges, and 3% to private for-profit four-year colleges The choice of transfer institution is closely linked to the type of college attended initially; students from public and private for-profit colleges often transfer to public two-year institutions, whereas those from private non-profit colleges are more inclined to move to public four-year institutions.
Research indicates that high school GPA is a more reliable predictor of bachelor's degree completion compared to SAT scores While both metrics show a positive correlation with degree completion, high school GPA demonstrates a stronger association When accounting for student background factors such as minority status, gender, socioeconomic status, and educational aspirations, these variables significantly influenced the relationship between SAT scores and degree completion, whereas they had minimal impact on the GPA-completion link Additionally, the inclusion of college and state characteristics further clarified the SAT score's relationship with completion, but did not affect the correlation between GPA and degree attainment.
Higher odds of college completion are positively linked to academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), and increased enrollment in two-year colleges and private institutions Conversely, a higher student-to-faculty ratio, a greater percentage of part-time undergraduates, and attendance at for-profit institutions correlate with lower completion rates Notably, after controlling for other factors, there are no significant differences in completion rates between minority and white students, nor between those attending public and private institutions.