How do womens education and career affect their decision on marriage and motherhood a case study for vietnam

RESEARCHPROBLEM

In recent years, economists have increasingly applied economic theory to various social behaviors, but the dynamics of marriage have received less attention Today's young women differ significantly from previous generations, benefiting from greater educational opportunities This shift in the labor market has led to a rise in women's economic independence, prompting researchers to explore the relationship between education, career achievements, and the age of first marriage Traditional factors influencing the age at first marriage, such as ethnicity and social class, have evolved, with recent studies focusing more on how educational and career advancements affect marriage timing.

Thistrendi n researchanalysisi s p r o p e r l y comprehensiblew i t h v i s i b l e evidenceo f p o s t w a r e r a i n numerouscountries.Themoreinvestmentineducationandopportunitiesforemploymenthasinducedwo ment o l o o k f o r worki n l a b o r market,whichleadst o releasingf r o m financials u p p o r t o f theirhusba ndsandgreatsuccess incareer.

Marriage age has significantly increased in many developed countries worldwide According to the U.S Census Bureau in 2010, the median marriage age for women and men was 20 and 23 in 1950-1960, rising to 27 and 29 by 2013 This trend is particularly pronounced in countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Taiwan, where the median marriage age now ranges from 29 to 32 Research, such as Diekmann's 1990 study on Western Germany, indicates that the expansion of education has contributed to this upward shift in the median age at marriage, increasing it by nearly one year.

Althoughv a r i o u s researchesh a v e beenc o n d u c t e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e m a i n factorsoft h i s trenda m o n g advancedcountries,

(e.gBlossfeld&Huinink,1991;Cherlin,1980;Diekmann,1989;Elder&Rockwell,1976;Hoem,1985;Ho em& Hoem,1987;Hogan,1978;Huinink,1987;Marini,1985),veryfewstudiesareundertaken forlessdevelopedcountries.

Marriage and fertility are interconnected processes, particularly in Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, where traditional values dictate that women must marry before having their first child There is an inverse relationship between the age at first marriage and fertility rates Additionally, as women's educational levels rise, they gain greater control over their fertility and decision-making regarding pregnancy This increased access to education and a reduction in discrimination contribute to women's ability to secure stable incomes, enabling them to better prepare for their children's futures.

InVietNam,theageoffirstmarriageofwomenis22.8yearsofage.Thisfiguredidnotchangeinthel a s t onean dahalfdecade(source),whilethatofmenincreasedfrom25.2to26.2from1999to2009.A g e offirstmarri ageofVietnamesewomeniscomparabletoSoutheastAsiancountries,forexampleCambodiaThailand21,Malaysia25.7,Indonesia22.3,butquitelowcomparingtothatofdevelopedcountries,f o r e x a m p l eCanada2 9 1 , U K 3 0 a n d t h e N e t h e r l a n d s 3 0 4 W o m e n i n t h e s e developedcountriesobvious lyhavehighereducationandcareeropportunitiescomparedtoVietnamesewomen.

OnequestionarisesisthatwhetherVietnamesewomendelaytheiroptimaltimeforfirstmarriageandb i r t h changewhenhavingm o r e educationandcareeropportunities.Andwhatistheassociation betweeneducationanddelayedfirstmarriagea n d c h i l d b i r t h ?

T h e answerst o t h i s questioni s q u i t e importantforarangeofpolicies,includingfamilyplanning,schoolin gandeducationservices,andthep l a n n i n g ofhealthcare andchildcareservices.

Thispaperisalsotofindouttheanswerforthequestionsandhelptodiminishtheanxietyanddistresswomenha veto encounterwhentheir time offirstchildrenisdelayedmorethantheyorsocietyexpects.

RESEARCHOBJECTIVES

This study examines the impact of women's education on their marriage behavior and childbearing decisions, grounded in the "New Home Economics" theory It is widely accepted that there is a strong positive correlation between years of schooling and the age of marriage, suggesting that higher educational attainment leads to delayed marriage The research considers various hypotheses, including the "independence hypothesis," "specialization hypothesis," "human capital effect," and "institution effect," to explore whether higher education postpones marriage or decreases its intensity To investigate this, the study employs survival analysis to assess how the likelihood of entering first marriage and motherhood evolves with age.

Particularlyinthisstudy,theapplicationofsurvivalanalysiswillhelpinvestigatinghoweducationandcareerch angetherate ofwomenenteringfirstmarriageandmotherhood.This is to provideinformationo n t h e potentialbenefitsofpoliciesthatimprovewomeneducationandcareeropportunities.

This paper aims to conduct an online survey to gather data on the age at first marriage and first birth among women, as there are currently no available sources for this information Drawing on economic theories related to marriage and childbearing, as well as previous empirical studies, several key variables have been identified, including age independence, social class, education level, and participation in the educational system These variables will be directly addressed in the questionnaire, targeting women aged 18 and older as the expected respondents.

Thisstudyisdesignedinto5mainpartstotheoreticallyandempiricallyanalyzehowwomeneducationo r care erdevelopmentaswellassocialbackgroundaffectto their decisiononmarriage andchildrearing

Chapter2postulatesthesocialframeworkoftheorythatthispaperisreliedon.Particularly,themostnoticea blet h e o r y i s t h e “Newh o m e economics”o f G a r y Becker( 1 9 8 1 ) , whichshedl i g h t o n t h e deter minantsofmarriageanddemandforchildren.

Chapter3representsthepatternthroughwhichdataonwomeniscollectedandvariablesdefinitionaswellasmo delestimation tocontributeareliableimplication onthisarea.

Chapter4providescomprehensiveresultsfortherelationshipthatwehavesupposedfromthebeginninguntil thispart.Itisexpectedto beconsistentwith theavailabletheory.

Chapter5givesafinalconclusionbasedonthetransparentresultsinpart4,fromthisperception;thispaperwill commit itslimitationandinfersomefurtherstudies.

2.1 THEORETICALLITERATURE

TheoryofMarriage&Thedivision ofLabor

Inthissection,Ipresentthedeterminantsofthebenefitsofmarriagecomparedtosinglelifeforonem a n a ndonewoman.This will bethebasisforanalyzingtheoptimaltiming ofmarriage.

When considering the potential marriage between a male (M) and a female (F), it is essential to understand that marriage involves both individuals sharing a household According to Gary Becker (1981), the motivation for both men and women to marry lies in the benefits of married life, which can enhance their overall utility This utility is influenced not only by goods and services purchased in the marketplace but also by the unique commodities produced within the household These household commodities encompass the quality of food, the quantity and quality of children, reputation, entertainment, friendship, love, and health status Notably, these benefits are not marketable or transferable between different households, but are exclusively shared among members of the same household.

Consequently,theyc a n n o t b e measuredasa u s u a l mannero f o t h e r o u t p u t , b u t w e assumea singleaggr egate(Z)isacombinationofallthesecommodities Maximizingutilitythusbecomes equalandsimi larforeachperson tomaximizetheamountofZthat he or shereceives.Theproductionfunctionofeachhouseholdwhichconnectsitstotaloutput ofZtodifferentinputsisdisplayedbelow:

Z=f(� 1,… ,� � ;� 1 ,….,� � ; )� (1) Inwhich� �are variousmarketgoodsandservices,� �is timeinputsofdifferenthouseholdmembers,andEare“ environmental”variables.T h e budgetconstrainforthe� � canbewrittenas:

�� � =∑ � � � � � +� (2) Where� �the wagerateofthejthmemberis,��representshowmuchtimeamanspendsonworkingi n themarketsect or,andvisthepropertyincome.� �a n d � �are relatedbythebasictimeconstraint:

� � +� � =T (3) Wherethetotaltime ofeachmember i s denoted byT,s u b s t i t u t i n g (3)into(2),a singlef u l l income constraintcanbeconstructedbythecombinationof thegoodsandtimeconstraintsas(4)

Inwhichifthe� �i s unchanged,fullincomeisappreviatedbyS–themaximumachievableincome, thereisanassumptionthatadecreaseinhousehold’stotaloutput(Z)cannotmakeanymembersbetter offb u t s o m e w o r s e o f f Hence,t o m a x i m i z e t h e totalo u t p u t Z,eachm e m b e r w o u l d n o t h e s i t a t e t o contributehis timeandgoodsto thisallocation.And necessaryconditionsto maximizeZinclude:

Thus,theremustbeanappropriateallocationandcooperationintimebetweenthemarketand nonmarketsectorsamongeachmember.Ifamanandawomanaremarried,theirhouseholdisassumed tocontainonlythetwotimeinputsofthem;inotherwords,wehaveignoredthetimeofchildrenando t h e r peoplelivingin thesamehousehold.

Similarly,asinglehouseholdallocatesonlyhisorhertimebetweenthenonmarketandmarketsectors tosatisfyequation(7).Specifically,singlewoman ism or e likelytoworkmorethanmarriedwoman be causetheydo not have timeandgoodssuppliedbythe otherspartner.

If� � ��� 0 � 0𝑓 representt h e maximum o ut pu ts o f singlem a n andwoman,and� � � 𝑓 ��� �𝑓a retheir marriedincomes,a n e c e s s a r y conditionf o r a m a n anda womant o m a r r y i s t h a t t h e i n c o m e after marriedishigherthanthat if theyremainsingle:

� �𝑓 ≥� 0𝑓 (8) If� �𝑓+ � �𝑓, thetotalincomeachievedbythemarriage,isidentifiedwiththeoutputofthemarriage,ane cessaryconditionformarriageis as below:

� �𝑓 +� �𝑓 ≡� �𝑓 ≥� �0 +� 0𝑓 ( 9) Thepresenceofchildrenis consideredasthemostreasonablereasonformarriagebetweenmenand women.Childrena r e t h e o n l y subjectsd i s t i n g u i s h i n g s i n g l e h o u s e h o l d s frommarriedh o u s e h o l d s becausesexualdemand,careforfoodanddrink,washingandcleaningandmanyotherthi ngscanbeservedbymoneypower,exceptownchildren.Thestrongemotionbetweenthetwoindividuals,calle d“Love”isalsoauniquecontribution to thepurposeofmarriage.

Marriage gains are influenced by market opportunities and income increases, which can motivate individuals to marry The rising costs associated with marriage, including time spent searching for partners and other marital expenses, can lead couples to minimize communication and resource transfer costs by cohabiting Consequently, an increase in property income and higher wage rates may boost the incentive to marry This suggests that poorer individuals might marry earlier than wealthier ones, aligning with empirical evidence Additionally, if women's wages rise relative to men's, while maintaining household responsibilities, the return on marriage may diminish if women's wages remain lower Since single women tend to work more than married women and single men less than married men, a growth in women's wages compared to men's could decrease the motivation to marry.

The traditional family model creates a comparative advantage for women over men by emphasizing women's investment in human capital, which enhances household efficiency, while men are expected to excel in the labor market This "new home economics" framework suggests distinct gender roles in society, fostering mutual dependence as a key incentive for marriage However, the decline in women's specialization due to improved economic status, driven by educational expansion, has significant implications for marriage A successful career can make women less attractive as partners, as they may not prioritize home production Additionally, women's economic independence reduces their reliance on a husband's income, allowing them the option to opt out of marriage for financial freedom Research by Benard (1972) and Raymo and Iwasawa (2006) indicates that high-status women may contribute to declining marriage rates.

“Specializationhypothesis”s h o w s t h e impactso f educationandt r a i n i n g o n marriagethrought w o ca usalpaths “human capitaleffect”and“institutioneffect”.

“Theinstitutioneffect”refersthelongerthetimeanindividualstaysatschool,thelowerthepossibilityf o r mar riagebecauseofthreemainassumptionsproposedbyT h o r n t o n (1995).Studentsarenotmaturedenoughfo radultrole,studentsdonothavetimeforotherrolesexceptstudying,andmarriedpeopleshouldbeindep endentinfinancialaspects.Thus,spousalroleandstudyingdutyofstudentsareinappropriate.Underthedivi sionoflabor,womentendtoleaveschoolwhentheymarriedsincetheyhavet o spendm o s t o f theirt i m e f o r family.A s a result,futurei n c o m e o f womeni s alsolessenedbecausetheyhave sacrificedtheirinvestmentin humancapitalforhouseholdwork.

Ontheonehand,“humancapitaleffect”hasanessentialimpactonnotonlymarriage,butalsofertilityandmarri agestability att h e endoftrainingoreducationlevel.Despiteahigherpossibility ofstable i n c o m e i nthefuture,investmentoneducationcreateshigheropportunitycostsforwomen.Therefore,iti s expectedt h a t e d u c a t e d womendecreaset h e t e n d e n c y t o marry.Moreover,womenw i t h financialindependencewill not gainmuchfrommarriage,and thus moreofthemwill notmarryatall.

Ifbotheffectsoperate,wecanfindoutthecombinationofthem.“Institutioneffect”increasestheageatmarri age,andthe“humancapitaleffect”alsoraisesthetimingintomarriage.Asaresult,weexpecta negativeeffectf orbothofthem,sincetheymovein thesamedirection.

Thirdly,w e s h o u l d c o n s i d e r t h e c h a n n e l s throughwhichawomanmayn e v e r getmarriage,a ndinvestigateh o w t h e a b o v e t h e o r y worksi n t h i s case.“Institutioneffect”alonecannotl e t women p o s t p o n e theirmarriageforever,andthentheywillmarryastheotherslower- educatedwomendo.Thiss h o u l d n o t h a v e anyspecialimpactson theproportion ofnever marrysincethereis not limit for theageo f marriage,whilefertilityislimitedataspecificage.However,thereisadebateaswomenareolder,t h e y willbehardtofindapotentialpartnerssincethesepartnersareallalreadymarried,atthistime,

16 lotofmenwhoarestaying atschool,delayedmarriage,too.Therefore,wepredictthatinstitutioneffectw i l l notappearintheproportion ofnevermarriage.Ontheotherhand,anegativehumancapitaleffects h o w s a st ro ng correlations i n c e hig hly-educatedpeopleareleastprofitedfromf a m i l y formation, so m o s t o f themwill not marryatall.

TheoryofMarriage Market

Assortative mating in marriage markets highlights the challenges posed by imperfect information, making the search for ideal partners costly Individuals often establish a minimum acceptance level rather than seeking a perfect match, leading to the exclusion of those who fall below this threshold Additionally, many young people inadvertently begin dating in their teens, often before they are consciously searching for a marital partner This search frequently coincides with other life activities such as work and education, meaning individuals may find a spouse without actively looking for one Given these complexities, the focus should shift from whether a search for a partner is taking place to understanding the conditions that facilitate successful searches.

Assortativem a t i n g i n h u m a n s occursbasedo n a b r o a d a r r a y o f t r a i t s , i n c l u d i n g s o c i a l e c o n o m i c , characteristic,educational,residential,t r a d i t i o n a l , religious,ands o o n Inreality,t h e r e arem a n y evidencesforassortativematingregardingtoaltruism.Manypeopleinloverevealstheirsimilariti esintermsoftheircontributionstopublicimprovementandcharities,andgenerositycanbeconsideredasap r o x y f o r m a t e c h o i c e insteado f phenotypicconvergence.

(2015),whichconcludescouplesalsosortforappropriate matebyeducationallevels and thistrendtends togoupward overtime.Moreover,assortativematingby

� genomicsimilaritiesshowsitssignificanceinhumanmarriagesinthe United States.Infact,spousesare moregeneticallyidenticalthan two randomlychosen individuals.

Identicalmenreceivethesameincomeinanefficientmarriagemarketregardlessofwhomtheymarryo r whe thertheychoosetoremainsingle.Sincemarriagewithsuperiorwomenproducelargeroutputs,superiorwome nreceivehigherincomesin efficientmarkets.The differencebetweentheincomes of thejthwomanandthe𝑖 𝑡ℎwoman wouldbe:

Where� 𝑓 istheequilibriumincomeofthe� 𝑡ℎ woman,� �i s theequilibriumincomeofmen,and� �� ist h e maritalo u t p u t o f t h e� 𝑡ℎwoman andanym a n Superiorwomenreceivea premiumt h a t i s determinedbytheiradditionalproductivityaswives.

Ifeachpersoni s a u t i l i t y m a x i m i z e r andchoosest h e m a t e w h o maximizesh i s utility,t h e o p t i m a l s o r t i n g musthavetheattributethatpeoplenotmarriedtoeachothercouldnotmarrywithoutmakingatleasto neofthemworseoff.Utilityismonotonicallyrelatedtocommodityincome;thereforeanoncoremarriagec a n n o t producem o r e t h a n t h e s u m o f theincomest h a t i t s t w o matesw o u l d receivei n t h e core.Ifitcouldpr oducemoreandifanydivisionofoutputwerefeasible,adivision could befoundthatw o u l d m a k e eachbetteroff,therebycontradictingthe optimalityofthecore.

Thematingoflikesorunlikeisoptimalasattributesarecomplementsorsubstitutes,becausesuperiorpeoples trengthenands u p p o r t eacho t h e r whentraitsa r e complementsandcompensateeacho t h e r whentraitsa r e s u b s t i t u t e s T h i s theoremalsoimpliest h a t t h e benefitawomancano b t a i n f r o m marriageof agivenqualityisgreaterforanexceptionalmanwhentraitsarecomplements,andisbetterf o r aninferiorman whentraitsaresubstitutes.

Positiveassortativematingfrequentlyoccursinanefficientmarriagemarket,wheresuperiormenarecompat iblew i t h h i g h - q u a l i t y women,andi n f e r i o r m e n arem a t c h e d w i t h l o w - q u a l i t y women.

However,negativea s s o r t a t i v e m a t i n g i s s o m e t i m e s important.Maximizingt h e a g g r e g a t e o u t p u t o f householdcommoditiesisalsoa featureofanefficientmarriagemarket,wherenoo n e canraise the valueofhismarriagewithoutmakingothersworseoff.Thereturnfrommarriagealsocorrelateswithappear ance,education,brillianceandothertraitsthathaveimpactsonnon- marketproductivityaswellasmarketopportunities.Holding themarketproductivityunchanged,theanalysisofmatesortingrefersaccelerationinthevalueoftraitsthataffect tononmarketproductivity,wouldcauseahigherdemandinmarriage.That’sthereasonwhylessbrilliantorless appealingpeoplearegoingtohavealongertimet o marriagethan thosewhoaremoreenchantingandintelligent.

Theanalysisofpositivematesortingprovesthefactthatthetimeofseekingforasuitablematchwillb e ext endedaseducationallevelincrease.Womenwithhigh- educatedleveltendtofindamanthathassimilarorevenhighereducationallevelthanthem.Thecasewillbemor eseriousifaparticularwomanhasallthosetraits,likegood-looking,intelligent,orwell-educated.

Fromtheabovetheory,Iexpectanegativerelationshipbetweenwomen’sexpansionlevelofeducationandrateo f entryinto firstmarriage.

TheoryofFertility

Women's fertility is influenced by social factors, similar to the dynamics of marriage Researchers suggest that the optimal time for women to have their first child aligns with achieving the best outcomes from their plans, particularly regarding human capital investment and career advancement In contrast, a man's career ambitions and financial stability do not significantly affect his wife's decision to have children The postponement of childbearing can be understood through an economic lens: women often have to sacrifice time for childcare instead of participating in the labor market Additionally, their ability to invest in education, which can lead to higher wages, is constrained by the demands of motherhood This trade-off is viewed as an opportunity cost, as women weigh the benefits of motherhood against furthering their education or establishing their careers Becker (1993) identified that the cost of a mother's time is a crucial factor in the overall cost of raising children.

(ii)Assoonasaparticularwomanhasherbaby,shemustleavehercurrentjobforaperiodoftimetolookafterher sonordaughter,thismeanstheaccumulatedexperiencewillremainorevendecreaseandherskillfor this job willalsobeaffectednegatively.Then,m o s t o f themoften chooseto delaytheirmajorresponsibilityof being amother.

(2011)drewaconclusiononnegativeeffectbetweeneducationandfertilityandthisi d e a canbesupporte dbythreemainliteraturemechanisms.Firstly,thelongerwomenstayinschool,t h e longerthetimingoffi rstmarriageandfirstchild,thisisconsideredastheresponsibilityofdelayinfirstchild(Blossfelda n d H u i n i n k , 1991).Secondly,womenw h o i n v e s t m o r e i n h u m a n capitalw i l l havehigher probabilityofachievingsuccessin theircareer,asaresult, theopportunitycostofmarriageandgivingbirthalsoincreasesleadingtolowerfertility.

(Becker1991;BlossfeldandHuinink,1991).Thirdly,m o r e educatedwomenpracticet h e i n d i v i d u a l i s m o n t h e i r careerandl i f e m o r e t h a n l e s s educatedone,sothisdiscouragesfamilyformationa ndchildbearing.(LesthaegheandMeekers1987;Liefbroer2005;Millsetal.,2011).

Asw e havediscusseda b o v e , C h i l d r e n areu s u a l l y n o t purchasedb u t a r e t h e productso f marriage betweent w o p e o p l e f r o m o p p o s i t e s e x ; thought h i s processrequiresa h u g e s a c r i f y i n t i m e o ft h e mothers.Eachfamily hastheirowncostofconsumptionordifferentincome,thecostofproducingandbearingchildrencannotbethes ame.

Assume𝑃 �d enotesthiscostand thecostofZbyπz,thebudget constraint of a familyequals:

WhereIisfullincome,given𝑃 � ,𝜋 𝑧a ndI,thethebudgetconstraintandthemarginalutilitycondition areemployedto determineoptimalquantitiesof nandZ:

Therelativepriceofchildrenandfullincomearetwo maindeterminantsofdemandforchildren,thus, anincreaseintherelativepriceofchildren,in𝑃 �r elativeto𝜋 𝑧, willlowerthedemandforchildrenand boostt h e demandf o r o t h e r commodities(wherereali n c o m e i s heldc o n s t a n t ) T h e relativepriceo f childrenisaffectedbymanyvariables,someuniquetochildren,andseveralofthemoreimportantaren o w c onsidered.Theevidenceoverhundredsofyearsindicatesthat farmfamilieshavebeenlargerthanurbanfamilies.Parto f t h e explanationi s t h a t f o o d andhousing,i m p o r t a n t i n p u t s i n t h e r e a r i n g ofchildren,havebeencheaperonfarms.

Ifchildrencanhelpinhouseholdchores,familybusinessormarketplace,thenthenetcostofchildrenw i l l b e reduced.Thus,along withthe potential gainfromchildren,the incentiveforhaving childrenals oincreases.Infact,farmfamiliestendtohavemorechildrenbecausechildrenareconsideredmoreproductivef orfarmingthaninthecities.Thecontributionoffarmchildrenhasdeclinedasagriculturehasbecomemore mechanizedandcomplexin thecourseofeconomicdevelopment.

Bothoftheseelementshavemotivatedfarmfamiliestoextendtheirchildren'sschooling.Becauseruralschoolsa reoftentoosmalltobeefficient;anditmaytaketoomuchtimeandmoneyforfarmchildrent o attendschool.T hecostadvantageofrearingchildrenonfarmshasnarrowed,asfarmchildrenhavespentmoretimeatschool. Consequently,nowadays,thefertilitydifferentialsbetweenurbanandruralareahavebeennarrowedindeve lopedcountries;whileruralfertilityissometimeslessthanurbanareai n s o m e countries.

Furthermore,thebetteropportunitiesofwomeninlabormarketortheincreaseinthevalueoftimeofmarried womenhasasignificantimpactontherelativecostofchildren.Thehigherincomeawomancano b t a i n , t h e h i g h e r opportunitiescosto f rearingandp r o d u c i n g childrenbecausecosto f mother’st i m e isthedomin antcostofchildren.Indeed,overthelastfewdecades,thesteadilyincreaseinearningpowerofwomenhasbeco methemainexplanationforboththelargeproportionofmarriedwomeninl a b o r forceparticipationandt h e m a j o r d e c r e a s e i n fertility.S i n c e f a t h e r s haves p e n t r e l a t i v e l y little t i m e onchildren,thegro wthintheirearningpowerhasnosignificantimpactsonthecostofchildren andi n factw o u l d havereducedt h e r e l a t i v e costi f childrenusedr e l a t i v e l y lesst i m e o f f a t h e r s t h a n

Household surveys provide clear evidence of the relationship between the incentive for children and the value of time for husbands and wives There is a notable distinction in how a father's and a mother's value of time affects the demand for children Specifically, an increase in a husband's wage is positively associated with the number of children, whereas a mother's higher wage correlates with having fewer children This dynamic can be attributed to women's greater investment in non-market sectors and men's need to prioritize market skills due to financial responsibilities when families have more children Additionally, there is a significant causal link between the value of time for wives and their demand for children.

REVIEW OFEMPIRICALSTUDIES

Numerous studies have examined the effects of education on the timing of marriage and first childbirth A comparative study utilizing data from national surveys in the U.S and Germany, conducted by Josef Brüderl and Andreas Diekmann in 1997, explored whether higher education merely delays marriage or also decreases its intensity The study compared educational impacts in the United States and West Germany, employing a log-logistic distribution with transition rates to model age-dependent marriage probabilities To differentiate between human capital and institutional effects, the authors applied a generalized log-logistic model The dependent variable analyzed was the waiting time until a woman marries, calculated by subtracting the minimum marriage age from the age at marriage, allowing the authors to infer the rate of first family formation.

H (t).T o seeh ow t h i s ratefluctuates,t h e m o d e l includessomesocialvariablessuchasyearsofeducation,pro fessionalprestigeoffather,religion,placeofresidenceandnumberofsiblingsetc.Basedontheaimofthestu dy,educationvariableisclearlydefinedanddividedintosomedifferentvariables,specifically:Yearsofeducat ion(EDUC)isseparatedbylevel,suchasprimary,secondary,high- school,collegeanduniversityandEDUCismeasuredbythenumbersofyearswhichaparticular womancanachievethatdegree.Lowereducationisadummyvariable,andcode1referspeoplewith

22 levelofeducationislessthannineyearorilliteracy.Yearsofeducationafteramarriageprocessisthet i m e of trainingafterminimummarriageage,andisformulatedbyEDUC+6whichistheminimummarriageage,ifa womanstopsstudyingbeforeminimummarriageagethenthisindexisequal0.Thepurposeofthisvariablei stoseparatetheinstitutionandhumancapitaleffect.Professionalprestigeoffatheristheprofessionalofwome n’sfatherwhenawomanwas16yearsold.Religionisdefinedasad u m m y variableofCatholics,Jewisha ndothersreligion.ThereferencegroupisProtestantsandnon- religiouspeople.Placeofresidencereferstowhetherwomenliveinruralareaorcitywhentheywere

In both the U.S and Germany, extended time spent in education negatively impacts the timing of first marriages for both genders, with women experiencing a particularly strong effect on human capital across birth cohorts Research indicates that in the U.S., lower education levels correlate with a delay in marriage by approximately two years, while no significant effects were observed in Germany Notably, each additional year of education can decrease the maximum marriage rate by 5% to 11% In East Germany, where robust family policy interventions exist, educational vulnerabilities have also contributed to delayed marriages and increased rates of individuals opting not to marry Wong's (2005) study on first marriage determinants utilized hazard analysis to explore the relationship between education, family background, and marriage timing, categorizing education into primary, secondary, and post-secondary levels The findings suggest that women with post-secondary education are less likely to marry compared to those with only secondary education, and those in higher job positions also marry later Additionally, women with traditional attitudes tend to marry earlier than their counterparts who hold more modern views, highlighting the complex interplay between education, social class, and marriage timing.

A recent study by Abalos (2014), consistent with Wong's findings from 2005, examines marriage trends among men and women in the Philippines using data from the National Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2008 Abalos defines marriage as a formal union between two individuals or cohabitation The study employs event-history analysis to measure the timing of first marriages, noting that many women remain single at the time of the survey, leading to the inclusion of censored cases in the dataset To account for various influencing factors, the study utilizes a hazard rate function model, considering covariates such as education, ethnicity, religion, and place of residence Education levels are categorized into primary, secondary, and higher education, while birth cohorts reflect the year of birth and residence is classified as rural or urban Abalos's findings align with Wong's conclusions, highlighting the significant impact of educational expansion and residence on the postponement of marriage, particularly for women.

24 peri s t h e increasingi n t h e n u m b e r o f l i v i n g t o g e t h e r w i t h o u t marriagetrendamongmenandwome ninPhilippine,itmustbeaninaccurateresultifthedataignoresthiscase.

The delay in first marriage and subsequent postponement of women's fertility is particularly evident in Asian countries with traditional cultural norms Research by Ida and Albert (2015) utilized a log-logistic model to analyze factors influencing the age of first marriage and the likelihood of having a first birth Key variables considered included a woman's residence at first birth, educational attainment, religion, wealth index, history of abortion, contraceptive methods, and the ages of first marriage and intercourse Among these, only the age at first marriage, educational level, and type of contraceptive used significantly impacted women's fertility, with wealth level showing a lesser degree of significance Additionally, Glick et al (2015) employed a continuous-time hazard model to assess the age at first birth, incorporating independent variables such as parental education, mortality rates, asset index, religion, ethnicity, and women's education Notably, this study also examined how the time since marriage affects the timing of first birth, revealing that the likelihood of having children increases over time post-marriage.

3yearsaftermarriageandt h e n decreases.T h i s s t u d y a l s o revealst h e importanceo f schoolingo n w o m e n ’ s fertility,specifically,oneaddedyearofschoolingaccountsfor0.5yearofdelaying fertility.

Sincethereareanumberofresearchersinvestigatinginthisarea,thispapertendstocontributetosheda lightfo rthecaseofAsiancountries–Vietnam.

3.1 DATA

METHODOLOGY

8 9 ; BlossfeldandHuinink,1991;Tuma&Hannan,1984),Iusethemethodofsurvivalanalysistomodelt h e behaviorofentryintofirstmarriageandmotherhood.Lettheeventunderconsiderationbethefirstmarriage o r m ot he rh oo d, t h e survivalfunction,whichindicatet h e r a t e atwhicht h e womanr e m a i n s single(forth ecaseofmarriage analysis)ornot havinganychildren(forth e caseofmotherhood) at time�,is

�(�)=1−�(�) where�(�)isthecumulativedistributionfunctionfortheevent(marriageorchildbirth)tooccur.The distributionsusually assumedareexponential,Weibull,log- normal andgamma.Thehazard function

Early Adolescent factors, e.g Peer pressure, lived with both parents, age at first marriage Two edged factors e.g Education, career plans

Age at first Child birth

Biological and individual factors e.g Use of contraceptive stillbirths and miscarriages before 1st birth Age at first sex and marriage

Background factors e.g Religion, Residence, Race, Parents Education, Economic status, Employment status

Cultural and Social factors e.g norms, practices, taboos, international factors e.g.War, famine h(t)=l i m 𝑃 (𝑡≤ < � 𝑡+∆𝑡| ≥ � 𝑡) (

InwhichT d e n o t e s t h e t i m e (measuredi n years)u n t i l a particularwomanentersi n t o marriageo r motherhoodi n t h e intervalo f ( t , t +∆ )� ,assumedthatsuchane n t r y h a s n o t happenedbeforet h e beginningofthisinterval.WhereP(.)isthetransitionprobabilityo f enteringintomarriageor motherhoodintheinterval(t,t+∆ )� Bydefinition,thehazardfunctionis

Where�(�)𝑖th eprobabilitydistributionfunctionisassociatedwith�(�)and�(�)i sthesurvivor functiondefinedabove.

Inaddition,I alsoanalyzeds o m e crucialf a c t o r s affectingt o t i m i n g offirstb i r t h f o r w o m e n , i n differenctlevels,i n c l u d i n g i n d i v i d u a l aspect,f a m i l y aspect,social,e c o n o m i c , i n t e r n a l an dexternalaspectas thebelowgraph

Toanalyzet h e i m p a c t s o f educationandcareero n t h e e n t r y i n t o firstmarriageandchildbirth,w e modelthehazardfunctionℎ(�)asafunctionofeducationandcareerrelatedvariables,togetherw i t h oth ercontrolvariables,with theassumptionof theexponentialdistribution

VARIABLES’SDEFINITION

Dependent variable is theageatfirstmarriageorfirstentryintomotherhood(Measuredbyyears), andevent- historyanalysisisappliedtofindoutthemaximumtimeuntilawomanmarriesorhaveherfirstbabyrelatedto thebelowregressors(orcovariates).

Other independentvariables(time-invariantcovariates) include

Father’ssocialclass or Mother’ssocialclass with thesetofclasscategories:unskilledandskilled manualworkers( 1 ) ; u n s k i l l e d andskilledadministrativeandserviceworkerso r Clerical( 2 ) ; professionals ands e l f - e m p l o y e d ( 3 ) U n s k i l l e d ands k i l l e d manualworker’sc l a s s i s c o n s i d e r e d asreference category.(Table 3.2)

2/ Fat her’seducati on an d Mother’seducati on is dividedintofourcategories,inwhichSecondaryis baselinegroup, vocationaltraining (1),college(2), universityorhigher(3).(Table3.2)

Vietnam's historical context, marked by the devastation of two major wars, has severely limited women's access to advanced education As a developing country with a traditional agricultural economy, Vietnam exhibits a long-standing preference for male children in educational opportunities due to its feudal past This analysis focuses on fathers' social class, reflecting the societal norms where men are typically seen as providers, while women manage household duties Despite this, both fathers' and mothers' social classes were included in the study to assess any significant differences in their impact on educational access.

Iexpecta positiverelationbetweenhighfather’ssocialclassandmarriagedelay,because parentsoft h e s e socialclasses tend toinvestmoreintheirchildren’sfuturethrougheducation.Consequently,them o r e educationalopportunities theyoffertotheirchildren,thelongertheirchildrenstayatschool,leadingtoanincreaseinmarriageage.This is consistent with the“institutioneffect”.

The type of residence, whether urban or rural, significantly influences women's marriage behavior and family formation Research indicates that women from rural areas tend to marry earlier than their urban counterparts, particularly in Eastern countries, as supported by findings from Huinink (1987) and Huinink and Wagner (1989) This trend is also reflected in early childbirth rates among rural women Urban areas offer better access to advanced infrastructure and job opportunities, which can lead to women pursuing further education and delaying childbirth Additionally, parents in urban settings often provide better guidance and motivation for their children to achieve academic success, resulting in rural women being more likely to have children at an earlier age.

T h e number o f siblings i s collectedbyd a t a o f eachh o u s e h o l d andconsideredasa factorwhich influencesthetimeofentryintofirstmarriage,sincethelargerthefamily,thehigherprobabilityoflowlevelofedu cation,sotheyinclinetogetmarriageearlieraswellashavingchildren.

29(Table3.2)Firstly,womenfromlargerfamiliesaredisadvantagedfromeducationalinvestment,sinceveryfe wcouplesof parentscanfullyfocusontheirchildrenfuture’scareer.Secondly,thesewomenarereadyforhousewifeandm otherhoodastheyarerequiredtotakecareoftheirsiblingswhenparentsareatwork.T h i s predictionisbase donthefindingsofearlierstudies,Huinink(1987),HuininkandTuma(1988),H u i n i n k (1988b).

Birth- cohortDifferentb i r t h cohorti s appliedt o p r e d i c t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n maritalt i m i n g a m o n g generations.

(Table3.1).Thetremendoussocioeconomicchangethatoccurredsince1975shasp r o b a b l y alterna tedt h e marriageattitudeso f w o m e n aswell.Overall,w e expecta p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n betweenmaritaltim eandearlierbirthcohorts,inotherwords,womenborninearlierbirthcohortsmaym a r r y atyoungeragest h a n thosein later birth cohorts.This variableis anothersetofdummy,eachrepresenting4- yearbirthgroupof1992-1998; 1987-1991;1981-1986and1950-1980(referencegroup:

Our objectivewastoseeifthereisanindependentcohorteffectaftercombining theotherdeterminantssuchasjobpositionandeducation.Finally,werealizedthatwomenfromyoungerbirt hcohortshaveenteredm a r r i a g e ata c o n t i n u o u s l y later age.T h e remainedquestionw a s whethert h i s c o h o r t effect,whichrepresentedasanindicatorofchangingattitudestowardmaritaltiming,wasstillsignificant evenafterwehadincluded otherexplanatoryvariablesinourmodel.

Chief incomeearner It isobviouslyunderstandablethatawomanwithburdensoffinancial obligationtotheirparentsorevensiblingsmaymarryatlaterage.

(Table3.2)Asachiefincomeearneri n hernatalfamily,women’sbehaviorisalsodifferentsincetheyhavehigh erresponsiblesoulandtheyw i l l notmarryuntiltherearealternativearrangementstosupportherfamily.Thisi sadummyvariablew i t h basedlineisgroupofwomenwhoarenot chiefincomeearner inherfamily.

Ancestral worship is anindicatorofrespectfortheancestors(deceasedparentsarealsoincluded),as

30 wellasa considerablemechanismo f transferringt r a d i t i o n a l valueso r culturesthroughgenerations. (Table3 2 ) Givent h e factt h a t w o m e n w h o r e g u l a r l y worshipa n c e s t o r s areconsideredash o l d i n g s t r o n g traditionalvalues,andtheycaneasilyacceptearlymarriageandchildbearing.Forthisreason,it isreasonablet o investigatewhethertherei s anydifferencei n t h e t i m i n g o f e nt ry intofirstmarriagebetween women who worshipancestorsandthosewhodon’t.

In Confucianism, children often must wait their turn to enter marriage based on birth order, which can significantly affect women with many siblings Those from large families tend to spend more time "queuing" for marriage opportunities Our dataset categorizes birth order into three groups: the oldest child, the youngest child, and others, with the reference group being women who are the oldest children in their families.

Job positions significantly influence women's prospects and achievements, categorized into unemployed, unskilled, skilled labor, clerical, managerial, and professional roles Unskilled labor encompasses blue-collar workers, farmers, and service jobs, serving as the reference group Clerical positions primarily consist of office workers, while managerial and professional roles include administrative positions, managers,

E t h n i c W e expects o m e u n i q u e ethnicw i l l havedifferentm a r r i a g e andchildbearingb e h a v i o r comparingtothemajority.

(Table3.1)Inthispaper,Idividedintotwoseparatedgroupsofethnicityi n c l u d i n g Kinh,Hoaand otherswhichaccountedforhighestproportioninourcountry’spopulation.Iexpecttoseetherearesomethin gdifferencesintimingtomarriageandhavefirstbirthbetweenthesegroups.

The article discusses the income levels of respondents at the time of their first marriage or their current income if they are not married Income is categorized into various groups, such as less than 5 million VND per month, 5 to 7 million VND, and so on, up to over 50 million VND per month The average income for each group is calculated, for instance, the group earning less than 5 million VND per month is assigned an average value of 2.5 million VND However, in the regression model, this income variable is treated as continuous, with the median value of each income range being utilized for analysis For example, a woman with a monthly income between 0 to 5 million VND will be represented by a specific value in the model.

Women's education is categorized into three levels: college or lower, university, and master's or higher The necessary years of schooling to attain specific degrees are as follows: Primary education requires 5 years, Secondary education 9 years, High school 12 years, Vocational training 14 years, College 15 years, University 16 years, and a Master's degree or higher requires more than 16 years The number of years of schooling is directly queried in the questionnaire, with the lowest educational group serving as the baseline for comparison.

(Table3.1).Weexpectthehighertheeducationallevel,thelongertime tomarriageor motherhood.

Wo men’s promotion in hercareer This isasetofdummywith1iscodedasevergetapromotion and0 i s understandasnevergeta p r o m o t i o n , whichi s usedt o measuret h e careero p p o r t u n i t i e s o f wo men.Weexpectanegativerelationshipbetweenpromotionandtimeatfirstmarriageorfirstbirth.

Wom en’sJob mov ement a dummyvariablewith1iscodedaseverchangejobbeforeand0isnever changejob This shows thestabilityinincomeorwomen’scareer.(Table 3.1)

15/ Living arrangement is setasdummyvariablewith 0 fornot livingwithparentsand1forviceversa, weexpectl i v i n g arrangementbeforemarriagem a y affectt h e i r d e c i s i o n o n marriage.Particularly,w omenlivewiththeir ownparentsus ua ll y delaymarriageorevenfirstbirthsincetheymayhavetot a k e careof theirparentsorsiblings.(Table3.4)

Besideallthevariablesintheequationoffirstmarriagearereused,therearesomenewvariablesintheequationof entryinto first birth,includingthe belowvariables:

Ever terminateda pregnancy This isatypeYes/Noquestionandiscoded1forYesand0forNoin themodel.

(Table3.4)Thenegativerelationbetweenearlybirthsandhavingterminatedapregnancyispredicted,s i n c e womenw i t h t h e experienceofabortionmayu n d e r s t a n d c l e a r l y t h e r i s k s o f t h i s operation, andtheyprobablyearlieraccepttogivebirthrightaftermarriage.

Wealth index this variableisself-explained andisclassifiedbyproperty.

(Table 3.4)Respondents areasked a questiono f whethertheyhaveav al ua bl e caratt i m e o f marriaget o evaluateth e w e a l t h s t a t u s AndIonlyseparatedthisvariableintolowerincomeandhigherincomegroups.Accordingtoprevio usempiricalstudy(ChenandMorgan),theeffectofpovertyontimeatfirstbirthisneededtobeconsidered.Wom enfrompoorhouseholdswithlowlevelofeducationtendtomarryearlierthanthosefrommoreeducatedandw ealthierfamilies.

Age at first intercourse is encountered,sincechildrearingcannotoccurunlessoneengagesinsexual activitieswhicheventuallycausepregnancy.

(Table3.4)Thedateoffirstmarriageistheconventionalmarkerofthebeginningo f hazardofpregnancy.How ever,sexualactivityi s notconstrainedtomarriageandmanywomenstillhavechildrenbefore thedateofmarriage.Thus,ageatfirstintercourseanddateo f firstb i r t h a r e suitablep r o x i e s o f t he beginning o f s ex ua l e x p o s u r e th an t h e d a t e o f firstmarriage.

Thep o s i t i v e relationbetweent i m e t o firstbirthandageatfirstintercourserepresentsthatlaterbeginning of sexualintercourseextend thewaitingtime tofirstbirth.

Knowledge about contraceptionseparated bytwocategories,unknownis0andknownis1.(Table

Contraception typeThis variableisdividedinto:Neverused,Condom,Contraceptivepill,setacoil andothers.

(Table3.4)Womenwithmoderntypesofcontraceptiveisexpectedtodelaytheirtimeatfirstbirth,because themoremoderntechnique, thelowerriskof unexpectedpregnancy.

Age at firstmarriage The respondentsareaskedatwhichagetheymarried,iftheyhavenotmarried yet,theircurrentagewillbetakenintoaccountforthisvariable.

( Ta bl e 3.4)Womenmarriedatlateragea r e expectedt o h a v e childrenlatert h a n t h o s e w h o marriedearl ier.Although,w e constructt h i s variable,i t i s n o t feasiblet o puti t i n t o o u r e q u a t i o n s i n c e t h e r e a r e m a n y c e n s o r e d d a t a att i m e o f s u r v e y forthosewhoremainedsingleuntiltimeofsurveyandtheirinf ormationisconsideredincomplete.

Educationallevel ofpartners Educational levelofpartnerisexpectedtobeanadvantageforwomen tohavechildrenearlier,soitneedstobetakenintoaccount.

(Table3.4)Thisvariableisclassifiedfromp r i m a r y toprofessorlevel,whichismeasuredbythenumber ofschoolingyears.Primarylevelisusedasreferencegroup.Froma theoreticalp o i n t o f view,m e n w i t h goo dj o b , highlevelofi n c o m e andcareerneedmoretimetopreparefortheirmarriagelife,Oppenheimer(198 8).SimilartoAgeatfirstmarriage,wecannotobservethepartner’seducationallevelfor thosewomen whohavenotmarriedyet,that’sthereasonwhythisvariabledoesnotappearin ourregressionmodel.

Housework This variableaimstoinvestigatewhetherawomanholdtraditionalvaluesornot,since thosewhousuallydohouseworkaresupposedtobereadyforwives’ormothers’rolethanthosewhod o n

’ t Therefore,thisvariableiscodedas0forthosewhodonotoftendotheirhouseworkand1isforanother.Obvi ously, 0 isconsideredasreferencegroup.(Table3.4)

Table3.1.First-Marriage VariablesDescription(EducationandCareer Variables)

U n i v e r s i t y 2-Master andhigher MeasuredbyYearsthatawomano b t a i n a particulardegree 1- Vocationaltraining 2- Clerical

Negativelyrelatedto timeatfirstb i r t h o r marriage Referencegroupisexpectedto marryearliest.

Measuredbyyearsatwork Thelongerthe timeatwork, the longerwaitingtime untilfirstmarriage.

Table 3.2.First-Marriage VariablesDescription(SocialBackgroundVariables)

2 Father’ssocialclass 0- Unskilledandskilledworkers Womenwithlowerfather’ssocial

(0-Base line) 1- Clerical classtend togetmarriageearlier.

3 Father’seducation 0- Secondary Women’swithwell-educatedfather

1- Vocationaltraining tends tohave higherlevel of 2- College andUniversity education,andthen latermarriageis

4 Mother’ssocialclass 0- Unskilledandskilledmanual Womenwithlowermother’ssocial workers classtend togetmarriageearlier.

5 Mother’seducation 0- Secondary Women’swithwell-educatedmother

1- Vocationaltraining tends tohave higherlevel of 2- College andUniversity education,andthen latermarriageis

Awomanusuallyworshipsherancestorsm aygetmarriageearlier.Expectedtosee differencein timetomarriagebetweenethnicity. 11.

13 Religion 0-Non- religious1- Buddhist 2-Christian

1 Women’seducationat 0- Collegeor lower Referencegroupisexpectedtohave firstbirth 1- University childrenearliestcompared toother

(0-Base line) 2- Master andhigher group

2 Women’syearsofscho olingatfirst birth(Years)

Measuredbyyearsatwork Thelongerthe timeatwork, the longerwaitingtime untilfirstbirth.

7 Income atfirst birth(.milVND/m onth)

1 Everterminateda 0- No Awomanwithanswer“yes”is going pregnancy 1- Yes togivebirthearlier

2 Wealthindex(by 0- No Awomanfrompoorer familytends to askingadirect questionofproperty)

3 Ageatfirst 0- Notyet Theearlierthetimeatfirst intercourse 1- Lowerthan18yearsold intercourse,the sooner awomanhas

2- 18 to 22yearsold probabilityof first birth.

4 Knowledge about 0- Yes Womenwithknowledgeof contraceptive 1- No contraceptive canpreventher from unexpectedpregnancybetter.

5 Contraceptivetype 0- No use Wewould liketo seethedifferences

7 Partners’Education Numberofschoolingyears Thehigherlevelof education, the shortertimeoffirstbirth.

Themoreindustrious a womanwas,theearliertimeto first birth isexpected.

Womenl i v e w i t h t h e i r o w n pare ntsdelay marriageorevenfirst birth.

1 Residence atfirst birth 0- Ruralarea Womenfromruralareaisgoingto

(0-Base line) 1- Urbanarea have childrenearlier

2 Father’ssocialclass 0- Unskilledandskilledworkers Womenwithlowerfather’ssocial

(0-Base line) 1- Clerical classtend tohavechildrenearlier.

3 Father’seducation 0- Secondary Women’swithwell-educatedfather

(0-Base line) 1- Vocationaltraining tends tohave higherlevel of

2- College andUniversity education,andthen laterfirstbirthis

4 Mother’ssocialclass 0- Unskilledandskilledworkers Womenwithlowermother’ssocial

(0-Base line) 1- Clerical classtend tohavechildrenearlier.

5 Mother’seducation 0- Secondary Women’swithwell-educatedmother

(0-Base line) 1- Vocationaltraining tends tohave higherlevel of

2- College andUniversity education,andthen timeto first birth 3- Masterorhigher is usuallylengthened

Themoresiblingsawomanhas,thelongert imeto first birth

Thelowerthebirth order, themorewaitingtime untilfirstbirth.Expectedto seedifferencein timetof e r t i l i t y amongReligion.

4.1 EMPIRICALRESULT

Statistics

Variable Obs Mean Std.Dev Min Max

Table 4.1 provides an overview of the income, work experience, number of siblings, and years of schooling of women in the dataset The average monthly income for the 304 women in the sample is approximately 8.748 million VND, with a minimum of 2.5 million VND and a maximum of 50 million VND These women have an average work experience of over six years, although some have not yet entered the labor market The number of siblings varies from 0 to 10, reflecting the larger family sizes of previous generations compared to modern women Additionally, the years of schooling indicate the total time a woman has spent to complete a specific level of education, with a maximum of 24 years noted for one individual.

Table4.2representsfemales’educationallevel,womenfromcollegeanduniversity accountsforthe larges tproportioninthissample,whichisabout70percent.Itcanbeinferredthatwomenhavebetteraccesstoadvanc ededucationalsystemthanbefore.

Att h e ageo f firstmarriage,t h e r e i s abouta quarterofrespondentsevergotp r o m o t i o n att h e i r work place,itispredictedfromourtheorythathigherstatusinlabormarketwilldecreasetheincentivet o m a r r y forwomen.

Jobstabilityisoneofthedeterminantsofmarriage,thusthevariableofjobmovementwhichinvestigateswhet hera womanhadeverc h a n g e d j o b befores h e gotmarriage,i s t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t A p p r o x i a m a t e l y two third offemalesin our samplehadmoved to another jobbeforehermarriagelife.

Fromt h e abovetable,Officeworkeri s t h e m a i n parto f o u r samplewhichi s over7 0 percentandwomenwo rkingasofficeworkeraremorethan theotherscompositionof job isreasonable.

Itisapparentthat50percentofourdataisconcentratedonwomenbornfrom1987to1991,andtheleastfract ionisbetween1950 to 1980, this is oneof thecommonweaknessofdataconductedbyonlines u r v e y sinceelder peopleareless likelytoaccesstotheinternetfrequentlythanyoungerone.

Residenceindicatestheliving environmentwhich awomanwasbornandgrewup,i t isdividedintorurala ndurbanareaandthenumberofwomenfromurbanareaismuchmorethancountrywithnearly7 0 percent,this groupisexpectedto marryandhavechildrenlater.

Table 4.8.Summarystatisticsofbeing achiefincome earnerat firstmarriage

Chiefincome earner Freq Percent Cum.

Atthetimeofentryintofirstmarriage,thereare52womenshoulderingtheresponsibilityforfinancials u p p o r t t o theirfamily.Thesewomenoftenmarrylateruntiltheycanfind a substituteresourcesfor thisburden.

Almostallwomeni n o u r sampleh a s preservedt h e traditionalv a l u e s o f worshippingt h e i r a n c e s t o r , p r o v i n g byt h e percento f 7 9 2 8 percentfemalew h o hadanancestralaltari n t h e i r f a m i l y b e f o r e marriage.

Table4.10givesusabriefinformationonwomen’sreligion,surprisingly,therearealotoffemalesino u r sa mpledo not practiceanyreligion,approximately34percentofBuddhist isrevealedwhile thereiso n l y 8percentof Chirstian.

Itisfoundfromthedatathatbirthorderofwomeninafamilywasunchangedevenattheirmarriageageo rtheir ageatfirstchild,womenareeldestchildinfamily stillholdsthe largestamount.Eldestchildrenu s u a l l y marriedatearlieraget h a n t h e o t h e r s childreni n a f a m i l y basedo n t h e traditiono f gettingmarriag efromeldestchildrentoyoungestchildren.

Father’seducation Freq Percent Cum.

Asshownintable4.12,father’seducationisnotdifferentfromtheirchildren’smarriagetimeandhavefirstchild pointoftime.Althoughuniversitygroupis stillhigher,it is onlyonethird ofour sample.

Table4.13.SummarystatisticsofMother’seducation at firstmarriageandfirstbirth

Mother’seducation Freq Percent Cum.

Similartofather’seducation,mother’seducationalleveldonotchangeoveraperiodoftimefromtheirchildren’s marriageandreproductivity.Accordingtotable4.13,wecanseeacomprehensivedifferencefromfathers’educa tionattainment,mothers e e m s t o havelowere d u c a t i o n Iti s consistentw i t h o u r predictioninchaptertw o,asourcountryisaffectedbyFeudalism,thereisinequality betweenmalesandfemales,thus, men werein priorityto staylonger ineducationalsystem.

Table 4.14.SummarystatisticsofFather’sjobat firstmarriageand firstbirth

Father’sjob Freq Percent Cum.

Over50percentofrespondents’fatherisfromskilledorunskilledworkers,thisgroupisalsousedasreferenceg r o u p t o investigatewhethert h e differencei n father’sj o b hasa n y impactso n women’sdecisiononfirstm arriage andfertility.

Table 4.15.SummarystatisticsofMother’sjobat firstmarriageand firstbirth

Mother’sjob Freq Percent Cum.

Mother’sjobisseperatedsimilarlytofather’sjob,comparingtoFather’sjob,elderwomenalsoworksm o r e a sskilledorunskilledlabor with 55.26 percent in ourdatacomposition.

Variable Obs Mean Std.Dev Min Max

Income,workexperienceandyearsofschoolinginthistableareunderstoodastheprevioustableforfirstmarria ge.Thereareonlythreenewvariables, includingageatfirstmarriageistheageatwhichwomenf i r s t l y enteredi n t o t h e i r marriagelife,ageatfirstb i r t h alsoreferst o t h e t i m i n g off i r s t r e p r o d u c t i v i t y andcontributiontofamilyincomeisthepercentageawomansetasidefortheirfamily’sconsumptio n.

Basedo n t h i s table,t h e r e a re 11 5 womeni n o u r samplewho hadgotmarriage.T h e averageag e o f marria geisabout25yearsold,theyoungestmarriedwomenis19yearsoldandtheeldestis36yearso l d Likewise,8

8 respondentshadchildrenandt h e mediana g e atfirstchildi s 2 6 yearso l d , iti s surprisingthatnearlyoneye araftermarriage,almostthesewomenhadtheirfirstbaby.Inaddition,the maximumageoffertilityis44,whichis mucholderthantheidealageoffertilityencouragedbyHealthDepartment.

0 percentd o u b l e thant h e percento f t h e r e s t T h i s datai s notdifferentm u c h fromw o m e n ’ s ed ucationallevelatfirstmarriage.

Table 4.18.SummarystatisticsofPromotionachievementatFirstbirth Promotionachievementatf i r s t birth Freq Percent Cum.

Promotionachievementi s anticipatedt h a t w i l l beo n e o f t h e m a i n factoro f havingfirstb i r t h , s i n c e whe nwomenareontheir potentialpathofcareer,itmaybehardforthemtosacrificetheirtimeforbeinga mother.Thisstatisticsreveals78womenhadevergotpromotionwhentheywereinnonmarketsector.About75 percentoftheothersdoesnothaveanypromotionachievement,itisnottoohardtoe x p l a i n sinceoursam ple consistsofnumerousyoungwomenwithout anyworkingexperience.

JobmovementatFirst Freq Percent Cum. birth

Groupofthosewhohavechangedjobbeforefertilityareaboutdoublethenumberofwomenwhoholdt h e i r l o y a l t y t o t h e i r currentc o m p a n i e s T h e r e i s s o m e evidenceo n t h e relationshipbetweenj o b s t a b i l i t y andearlymotherhood.

Job atFirstbirth Freq Percent Cum.

Jobatfirstbirthisdividedinto3categorieslikejobasfirstmarriage,thenoticeablegroupofabout72percentstillbe longstoOfficeworker.Nearly20percentis from skilledandunskilledlabor.

Table 4.21.SummarystatisticsofLivingarrangementatFirstbirth Livingarrangementatfirstb irth Freq Percent Cum.

Thisvariableisquiteequal,womenwholivewithparentsisabout55percentand45percentforthosen o t l i v e withtheirparents.The meaningofthisvariableis to identifywhethertakingcareofparentshasa n y effecton childbearingdecision ornot.

Over50percentofrespondentsdohousework,it is highlyevaluatedthatthiswomanis atraditionalgirlandtheymaybereadyformother’sroleearliercomparingto19.08percentwomenneverdoho useworkathome.

Over303respondents,thereisonly20womenadmittingthattheyhadeverterminatedanunexpectedpregn ancy.Indeed,w o m e n wh o haved on e ana b o r t i o n t e n d t o havechildrensoonerth an t h o s e w h o d o n ’ t , sincetheymayclearlyunderstand the harmfuleffectof this kind ofoperation.

Ageat firstintercourse Freq Percent Cum.

Womenrespondentshaven o s e x u a l intercourseu n t i l currentageh o l d s t h e largestproportioni n o u r datab aseo f4 2 90 p e r c e n t A s t h i s i s ansensitivequestion,i t i s unavoidablet h a t thereis b i a s i n t h e answeroft hisquestioncomparingtothereality,butthisisacommonmistakeofallsurvey.Thereares t i l l 39.96perce ntofwomen admittedthattheyhadgotinto bedwiththeir partnerswhentheywereabove22yearsold.

Alongwithanumberofwomenwhohavenothadtheirfirstsexualintercourse,therearemanywomend o n o t u s e anyk i n d ofcontraceptivem e t h o d , whichi s about4 3 3 8 percent.T h e secondt y p e o f preventin gfromunexpectedpregnancyiscondomwith38.08percent.Theleftof20percentisbelongt o contraceptive pills,setacoilorothermethod.

Table 4.27.SummarystatisticsofWomen’swealth at firstmarriageandfirstbirth

Wealth(Car’sowner) Freq Percent Cum.

Actually,t h i s variablei s n o t appliedi n t o o u r m o d e l , s i n c e therei s a hugegapbetweent h e s e t w o gr oups.Thenumberofrespondentswhohadtheirowncarattimeatfirstmarriageandfirstbirthonlyaccountfor 3percentagainst 97percent.Therefore,Idecidedto exclude itfromourmodel.

Accordingtothisgraph,at18yearsold,almostallwomeninourdatasetstilldidnotmarryyet.Overt e n years, nearlyhalfofthesewomengotmarriage.Untiltheageof36,probabilityofbeingalonestopsat20%, inotherwords,thereis a fraction ofwomenabove36 remainunmarried.

Fromtheabovegraph,wecaninferthatCohort3orwomenbornfrom1950to1980clearlymarriedearlierth an thoseingroupof1988to 1992,specifically,atage24,onlyabout

3percentofwomenfrom1 8 to24yearsoldmarried,whilenearly20percentofwomenfrom36to66yearsoldal readyhastheiro w n families.Itc a n b e convincedt h a t t h e r e i s anapparenttrendi n marriagebehavioramong e l d e r womenandyoungerwomenthroughthe presentation ofthisgraph.

The educational levels of women are categorized as College, University, and Master or higher, indicating a significant distinction in marriage patterns The data reveals that well-educated women tend to delay their first marriage, with 70% of those with a College education or lower marrying by age 28, and many completing their single lives by 35 In contrast, 90% of women with a Master's degree or higher remain single, and the likelihood of marriage for this group remains stable after age 30.

Jobisdividedinto3categoriesofunskilledandskilled labor,clericalandmanagerandprofessional respec tively.Althoughtheeffectofjobonfamilyformationisnotdifferentmuch,itcannotdenythefactthatunskill edandskilledlabor womenwillgetintomarriagelifeearliercomparingtowomenwithhighsocietystatus,sincetheyaresupposed to gain morefrommarriagethanothers.

Graph 5 illustrates the promotion achievements in women's working lives, shedding light on their career opportunities in the labor market The data indicates that women who have received promotions before marriage tend to have more job opportunities, leading to extended time spent in the workforce and delayed marriage A notable distinction emerges at the age of 28, where 60% of women who have never received promotions are no longer single, whereas approximately 70% of women focusing on the non-market sector remain unmarried.

Similartotheanalysisoffirstmarriage,wealsotake intoaccounttheprobability ofnothavingfirst b i r t h throughsomecovariates.Graph7refersprobabilityofnot havingfirstchild acrossage.Infact,nowomenhavetheirfirstchildfromtheageof 18to22yearsold Themaximum timeof havingfirstbirthhereis 39yearsold.

Birthcohortissupposedtobearrangedbyincreasingorder,fromcohort0tocohort3arewomenbornfrom1992 to1950.Itisreasonabletoexplainthatwomenfromolderagehavetheirfirstchildsoonert h a n otherbirthc ohort.At39age,nearlyallwomenfromcohort3haveeverhadchildrenandthereiso n l y fifteenpercentof them havenosignonfertility.

Itshouldbenotedthateducationallevelinthisgraphisincreasedfrom0to2,andthisresultissimilart o thecase offirstbirth,well- educatedwomenholdthehighestprobabilityofnothavingchildrenandt h e y oftendelaytheirtimeentryi ntomotherrolescomparingtowomenfromlowerlevelofeducation.T h e groupofwomencomegraduatedfro mcollegeorlowerallhadtheirownchildrenaround39yearso l d

DividedbyJo b , t h i s resulti s t o t a l l y the samea s education,meansw o m e n w i t h goodj o b s h o l d t h e hi ghestp r o b a b i l i t y o f n o t havingchildrenandt h e y o f t e n d e l a y t h e i r t i m e e n t r y i n t o motherr o l e s comparingtowomenfromlowerlevelofeducation.Theskilledandunskilledwomenworkersallhadt h e i r ownchildrenaround 39yearsold.

Aswesupposedbefore,promotionatfirstbirth=0meansthatthiswomanhasnotgotanyadvancementi n h erj o b p o s i t i o n before,t h u s , t h e y mayhave t h e i r f i r s t childearlierthant h o s e w i t h encouragementi n career.Especially,w h e n theyare3 1 yearso l d , womenw i t h n o incentivei n theirl a b o r forcea r e m o r e r e a d y t o becomemotherswith probabilityo f 70percent,whilet h e others’p r o b a b i l i t y is only40 percent.

Graph 13 illustrates the relationship between education level and marriage probability Overall, there is no significant difference in marriage trends between those with secondary education and those with less than a university degree However, a notable gap exists when comparing secondary graduates to individuals with a master's degree or higher Specifically, at age 27, the likelihood of first marriage is 7% higher for women with secondary education compared to those with a master's degree Additionally, the increase in marriage probability for low-educated women is significantly greater than for their well-educated counterparts For instance, the transition from age 25 to 26 may result in approximately a 2% rise in marriage probability for women with lower education, while women with master's degrees see only a 1% increase during the same age transition.

Accordingt o t h i s graph,i t i s reasonablet o i n f e r t h a t womenw h o h a v e evergotp r o m o t i o n att h e i r w orkplacehavehigherprobabilityofremainingsinglethanthosewhodon’t.Theincreaseinoneageoffemalewho neverhavejobpositionenhancement,resultsinadramaticalriseinprobabilityofmarriagecomparingto bettercareeropportunitiesfemale.

Thiscaseissimilartothosetwoabove,butthedifferenceisnotashighastheotherspreviousvariable.Itcanbeseen fromthegraphthatstabilityinjobisgoingtodecreasethestabilityinmarriageageofwomen.F o r exa mple,a t age2 8 , o l d e r o n e moreyeari n g r o u p o f j o b variationw i l l h a v e l o w e r p r o b a b i l i t y ofentryintomarriagelifethanloyalfemale,whichis nearly2percentgap.

Surprisingly,womenwithhigherjobstatustendtohavehigherincentivetomarrywith4percentmoret h a n u n s k i l l e d femaleworkersatageof27.As womenareolderbyoneage,for examplefrom26 to27,t h e p r o b a b i l i t y ofgettingmarriage of ma na ge ri a l andprofessionalw o m e n risesbynearly1p e r c e n t , w h i l e t h i s figureofunskilledworkersisonly0.5percent.

Age at first childbirth - 18 educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth = 0educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth = 2 1

The graph indicates that low-educated females tend to have their first child earlier than their well-educated counterparts, with a difference of 0.008 percent This trend can be attributed to the time well-educated women dedicate to their studies in pursuit of higher degrees, which delays their entry into motherhood Overall, by the age of 36, the likelihood of childbearing stabilizes for all women in the sample.

Age at first childbirth - 18 promotionatfirstbirth = 0 promotionatfirstbirth = 1

Fromtheabovegraph,thecurveofevergetpromotionisflatterthantheother,indicatingthathigherj o b positionisalongwithlowerchanceoffertility.Thegapbetweenthesetwogroupsis0.013percenthigher;inad dtiononeyearaddedofagewillrisethefrequencyofhavingchildrenmorefornevergetp r o m o t i o n gro up.Thisisnotdifficulttogiveanexplanationaspromotionrefersthehigherpositionofwomenatworkplace,t hus theircostof timewillalso behigherwhichreduces thedemandforchildren.

Age at first childbirth - 18 jobmovementatfirstbirth = 0 jobmovementatfirstbirth = 1

Thereisadistinctdisparitybetweenwomenwhoareloyaltotheirjobandthosewhoarenot.Femalesw i t h p ermanentjobtendtohavehigherincentiveforbeingmotherssincetheyarestableinfinanceinordertoensure abetterlifefortheirownchildren,andthedecisiononfertilityismadeeasier.Foroursample,atage29, thedivergenceof thesetwogroupsisabout0.014 percent.

Age at first childbirth - 18 jobatfirstbirth = 0 jobatfirstbirth = 2 jobatfirstbirth = 1

Skilledorunskilledlaborisgroupofthosewhohavelowestprobabilityoffirstchild,at28yearsold,t h e figu reforhavingchildrenisnearly0.015percent,whilemanagerialandprofessionalgroupisabout

0.029percent.Itis indicatedthatthebetterjob awomanachieves,ahigherdemandforchildren.

RESULTS

***1%significance,**5% significance,*10% significance–Robust standarderrorsinparenthesis

Table 4.28 presents the results of the Exponential coefficient estimates and the Cox regression model, highlighting that five out of eighteen variables are significant Notably, income is significant at the 5% level and positively correlates with the timing of first marriage, suggesting that for every increase of one million VND per month in income, women may delay marriage This delay is likely due to higher opportunity costs associated with dating and seeking a partner, as women with higher incomes may find less incentive for family formation since they can financially support themselves Additionally, this aligns with Gary Becker's traditional division of labor theory, where women with higher income from educational advancements and career opportunities may be viewed as less attractive marriage partners due to their inability to dedicate time to home production The Exponential model offers stronger evidence than the Cox model, which only achieves a 10% significance level.

Research indicates a negative correlation between women with a Master's degree or higher and the timing of marriage, suggesting that this group tends to delay their first marriage compared to those with only a college degree or lower This phenomenon can be attributed to the "human capital effect" and "institutional effect," where extended time spent in education reduces opportunities for dating and finding a suitable partner Additionally, while pursuing their studies, women may not adequately prepare for married life, as their focus remains on academic achievements Completing education is often seen as a key milestone in becoming ready for marriage; however, only the highest levels of education demonstrate a significant impact on marriage timing, while other educational levels show no significant effect in both models analyzed.

Research indicates that women's career opportunities significantly influence their marriage timing, with those experiencing advancement in their careers tending to marry later than their counterparts with limited career prospects Both models demonstrate a strong negative correlation, highlighting that women's decisions to enter marriage are evidently dependent on their professional opportunities.

Finally,w e a r e n o t s u r p r i s e d bytheestimationeffecto f b i r t h c o h o r t ; I cand r a w a p o s i t i v e relation betweenbirthcohortandageatfirstmarriage.Inotherwords,elderwomenfrompreviousgenerationalwaysma rriedatolderagethan modernwomen.

Research indicates that factors such as religion, parental education, and employment status do not significantly influence the age at first marriage Although the education level of fathers and their social class appear insignificant, it can be argued that these variables indirectly affect children's education, as higher social class fathers typically provide more opportunities for their children to remain in the educational system Consequently, this extended educational journey contributes to a longer wait time for marriage.

Residence,numberofsiblings,ethnicandbirth- orderinfamilyareconsideredasimportantfactorsinf a m i l y formation,buttheshownoimpactsonther ateofentryintomarriage.Withthisresult,womenfromruralaread o n o t m a r r y earliert h a n t h o s e from urbanarea.Ina d d i t i o n , i t i s reasonablet h a t n u m b e r o fbrothersandsistersandb i r t h ordercannotpr eventfrommarryingin o u r modernsociety,whensocialconvention is not asstrictas in thepast.

***1%significance,**5%significance,*10% significance–Robust standarderrorsinparenthesis

Atfirst,wecaneasilyrealizethenegativesignofincomeatfirstbirthandtimetofistbirth.Holding allt h e otherthingsunchanged,higherincomewomenwillchoosetogivebirthlaterthanthosewithlowerinco me.Itisabsolutelyconsistentwithoureconomictheoryonthedemandforchildren,aswomenhashighincome,t heircostoftimealsoincreasesiftheyhaveababy,theyhavetosacrificetheirtimeinl a b o r forceformothe rs’role,thenit should beachoiceof opportunitycost.

Int h e analysiso f e d u c a t i o n a l attainmento n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f firstb i r t h , w e f o u n d n o resultss i n c e educationallevelinbothmodelareinsignificant,ortimingoffirstbirthisnotdependentonwomen’s educationallevel.

Second,promotionachievementisfoundtobeassociatedwithageatfirstchildbirthsincethisvariablei s sign ificantat5percentlevelinbothmodels.Thehigherpositionatworkplaceawomanisthelesshazardofhavin gearlyfirstchild.Thisprovedthefactthatcareeropportunitiesinnonmarketsectorareo n e of themaindeterminantsof delayingparenthood.

Similartotheeffectsofjobmovementonfirstmarriage,itisconvincedthatwomenwithpermanentj o b h avehigherprobabilityofearlyfirstbirthanditisinoccurrencewithouroutcomes.Althoughwecaneasilyo bservefromthepastthatwomeninpreviousgenerationhavemorechildrenandhavefirstb i r t h earlierthan today, theactualresultsarenotthesameaswethought.

Controllingf o r Birthc o h o r t , w e f o u n d n o differencef o r t h i s case.T h e signoft h e s e socialf a c t o r s remainedt h e same.A s w e expectedb e f o r e , i t m u s t b e elderp e o p l e f r o m previousgenerationcouldhav etheirfirstchildearlierthantoday,surprisinglytheresultis not aswhatweguessed.

***1%significance,**5%significance,*10% significance–Robust standarderrorsinparenthesis

The data indicates that family income significantly influences the timing of motherhood Women who are primary earners often delay entering parenthood due to financial responsibilities Without a reliable source of support from their natal family, they may hesitate to make decisions regarding fertility Additionally, our study finds that Christian women tend to marry earlier than those who do not practice any religion, highlighting a notable trend in family dynamics and reproductive choices.

UndertheestimationofCoxregressionmodel,mothers’jobhasimpactonbehavioroftheirchildren’sfertility. Specifically,w o m e n w i t h highs o c i a l s t a t u s m o t h e r s m a y havet h e i r firstchildearliert h a n groupo fwomenwithmothers’jobasunskilledorskilledworkers.However,thisresultonlyhappensi n t h e model ofCoxregressionanditssignificanceis only10percent.

Tot h e e x t e n t o f ageatfirsts e x u a l i n t e r c o u r s e , w e f o u n d a p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n U n d e r t h e s a m e conditions,h o l d i n g allotherthingsunchanged,w o m e n w h o havelatert i m e o f firstinte rcoursem a y havelowerriskofbeingamother.Particularlyinourdata,womenwhohavefirstintercoursebet ween1 8 and22yearsoldhavehigherprobabilityofhavingchildrenthangroupofwomenwhohavenothadfirs ts e x u a l intercourseyet.Finally,womenw h o usedcontraceptivem e t h o d w i l l havehigherp r o b a b i l i t y ofearlyfirstbirthratherthan thosewhodon’tuse.

Othervariablesi n c l u d e educationall e v e l , j o b , workexperience,contraceptivek now le dg e, residence,fa thers’ormothers’jobandevergetanabortionshow noimpactson time tofirstbirth.

Thispaper’sp u r p o s e i s t o assessb o t h e m p i r i c a l l y andt h e o r e t i c a l l y t h e hypothesiso f n ewh o m e economicswhichstatesthatwomen’sincreasingeconomicindependence,stemmingfrombettera ccesst o higherl e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n andcareerachievement,i s o n e o f t h e m a i n factorsi n t h e gro wtho f postponedmarriageandmotherhoodinourcountry.Usingself- surveyeddata,Iestimatetheeffectsofeducationallevelandjobachievementon thetimingoffirstmarriage andfirst child.

Firstly,i n t h e processofanalyzingfirstmarriage,i t i s referredt h a t educationallevelarep o s i t i v e l y related todelayedfirstmarriage.Accordingtonormativeexpectationsinthesociety,asyoungwomenareintheirsch ooltime,theyareconsiderednotatriskofenteringmarriage.Graduationfromschoolisa remarkablelandmar kinwomen’slife - event,whichemphasizesthetransitionfromyouthtoadulthood.Theprocessofaccumulatingqualificationsha stakentimesanddelayedthistransition.

The timing of women's family formation is influenced not only by educational investments but also by their income levels According to Gary Becker's theory, as women earn more income, the cost of marriage increases, leading to a delay in marriage Our analysis indicates that modern women tend to marry later than previous generations, with significant factors being education and career opportunities While variables such as birth order, number of siblings, father's education, religion, and ethnicity were found to be insignificant, women from rural areas do not marry earlier than those from urban settings Additionally, prolonged education does not clearly affect the timing of the first child; however, it decreases the probability of having a first child due to the pressures associated with late childbirth The timing of first sexual intercourse and the use of contraceptives also play a role in motherhood risks Furthermore, career advancement is crucial, as women with more career opportunities tend to delay marriage and motherhood.

Accordingt o t h e m e n t i o n e d results,i t i s understandablet h a t peoplew h o chooset o wellpreparef o r t h e i r futurewouldmostlikelytodelaytheirtimeintomarriageandparenthood.Indeed,educationisanefficientin strumentalinofferinganindividualbetteropportunitiesin labormarket,butlengthenschoolingtime,findasuitablejob andattemptingforcareeraremorelikelyto postponetheirmarriage.Basedonthispaper,governmentshouldtakeintoaccountwomen’sageatfirstmarriage becausethisist h e crucialfactorsoffemales’h e a l t h andc h i l d b o r n e,t h u s , m a s s m e d i a canb e consideredasaneffectivemethodrelatingto thisconcernandawareness.

Moreover,f ro m t h e p o s i t i v e relationbetweent i m e atfirstintercoursean d t i m e e n t r y intofirstb i r t h , po liciesmustemphasiseontheimportanceofcontraceptivetypeassoonaswomenwerestillintheirschooltim etoensureusefulknowledgeforgirl’shealthaswell.

5.1 MAINFINDINGS&RECOMMENDATION

LIMITATIONAND FURTHERSTUDIES

Research on the impact of education and career achievement on the timing of first marriage and marital life has gained traction among economists interested in human capital investment This paper aims to contribute both theoretically and empirically to this field However, it acknowledges certain limitations that could inspire future studies One key implication is that the research cannot fully account for all responses in the dataset due to the issue of censoring; many female respondents had not yet married at the time of the survey, leaving open questions about their eventual commitment to marriage This challenge is common in empirical research involving censored data, and a viable solution is to continue data collection and model estimation as new information becomes available Therefore, this area is ripe for further exploration, particularly regarding the age at first marriage or first birth, which necessitates ongoing research as new data emerges.

Second,theweaknessofmyp a p e r isdataresources,duetotheproblemoftimeandexpensesl i m i t a t i o n , mydatasetisincludedonlyasmallfractionofwomeninVietnam.Therefore,theresultoft h i s papermayno tberepresentativethenIcannotgivespecificimplicationfor thewholeVietnamese’sfemales.Basedonthispaper’sinspiration,furtherstudycanbeexpandedwithbig gerdatasettofindm o r e accurate resultsforVietnamese women.

The article highlights a critical oversight regarding time inconsistency in variables such as parental education and income It notes that the value of educational levels and income has changed significantly over the past two decades, with a college degree being more respected in the past compared to now Additionally, it points out that 5 million VND per month held greater value 30 years ago than it does today To address this issue, the article suggests incorporating controlling variables like inflation rates or GDP per capita Another potential solution is to redesign the questionnaire to reflect specific time periods, although this approach would require considerable time and effort.

Infact,giventheriseintheageatfirstmarriageandfertilityacrosscountriesasIhavementionedint h e intr oduction,morecountry-specificstudiesandcross- countrycomparisonshouldbeconducted.Ana r r a y ofcross- nationalstudieshasprovedthefactthatthisrelationshipmaybedifferentdramaticallyfromonecountr ytoanother.Finally,acomparativepapermustbemoreinterestingwhencomparingt h i s topicsamongnati ons,e s p e c i a l l y Vietnama n d t h e o t h e r countriesinS o u t h e a s t area,alsom a l e respondentsshould be inourconcernforthis issue.

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1 What is yourgender? a Male(IfMale,respondents will be automaticallymovedto appreciation sheet) b Female

5 Attimeoffirstmarriage,what wasyour educationallevel? a Illiteracy b Literacy c Primaryschool d Secondaryschool e High-school f Vocationaltraining g College h University i Masterorhigher

8 Attimeoffirstmarriage,what wasyourjob? a Unskilledlabor b Skilledlabor c Clerical d ManagerorProfessional e Owner f Housewife g Unemployed h Others

9 Beforeyourfirstmarriage,didyouever getapromotionatyour workplace? a Yes b No

- Ifyes,what was thereasonfor thischange?

11.What was yourincomeatthe timeyoumarried? a tmarriagei.religionatfirstmarriagei.birthorderlivingarrangementatfirstmarriagei.fatherseducationi motherseduca

>tioni.fathersjobi.mothersjob,dist(exp)nohrrobust failure_d: marryanalysistime_t: time

RobustSt d.Err z P>|z| [95%Conf.Interval] incomeatfirstmarriage educationallevel

1 2 workexperience residence cohort 1 2 3 chiefincomeearneratfirstmarriagenu mberofsiblingsatfirstmarriagewo rshipatfirstmarriage religionatfirstmarriage

>tmarriagei.religionatfirstmarriagei.birthorderlivingarrangementatfirstmarriagei.fatherseducati oni.motherseduca

>tioni.fathersjobi.mothersjob,nohrrobust failure_d: marryanalysistime_t: time

RobustSt d.Err z P>|z| [95%Conf.Interval] incomeatfirstmarriage educationallevel

1 2 workexperience residence cohort 1 2 3 chiefincomeearneratfirstmarriagen umberofsiblingsatfirstmarriagewo rshipatfirstmarriage religionatfirstmarriage

stregincomeatfirstbirthi.educationallevelatfirstbirth0cthpromotionatfirstbirthjobmovementatfirst birthi.jobatfir

>stbirthworkexperienceresidencei.cohortcontributionfbhouseworkatfirstbirthi.religionatfir stmarriage i.birthorde

>rlivingarrangementatfirstbirth i.fatherseducationi.motherseducationi.fathersjobi.mothersjobabortioni.firstint

>ercoursecontraceptiveknowledgei.contraceptivetype,dist(exp)nohrrobust failure_d: birthanalysistime_t: child

RobustSt d.Err z P>|z| [95%Conf.Interval] incomeatfirstbirth educationallevelatfirstbirth0cth

1 2 workexperience residence cohort 1 2 3 contributionfb houseworkatfirstbirth religionatfirstmarriage

stcoxincomeatfirstbirthi.educationallevelatfirstbirth0cthpromotionatfirstbirthjobmovementatfirst birthi.jobatfir

>stbirthworkexperienceresidencei.cohortcontributionfbhouseworkatfirstbirthi.religionatfir stmarriage i.birthorde

>rlivingarrangementatfirstbirth i.fatherseducationi.motherseducationi.fathersjobi.mothersjobabortioni.firstint

>ercoursecontraceptiveknowledgei.contraceptivetype,nohrrobustfailure _d: birth analysistime_t: child