Likely dead trans pacific partnership agreement and vietnams apparel

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LIKELY-DEAD TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND VIETNAM’S APPAREL By NGUYEN THI TUONG VY MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, December 2016 UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LIKELY-DEAD TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND VIETNAM’S APPAREL A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By NGUYEN THI TUONG VY Academic Supervisor: Dr LE THANH LOAN HO CHI MINH CITY, December 2016 DECLARATION I hereby certify that the thesis “Likely-dead Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and Vietnam’s apparel” is my original work and have not been being submitted for any other degrees This thesis was fulfilled under the instruction and supervision of Dr Le Thanh Loan To the best of my knowledge, all the contents that are not my own work have been acknowledged and cited in the thesis Signature Nguyen Thi Tuong Vy Ho Chi Minh City, 2016 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First, I would like to express my great appreciation to my supervisor Dr Le Thanh Loan for her patient and helpful instruction, discussion and support during the period I wrote this dissertation I would also like to express my gratitude to Dr Pham Khanh Nam and Dr Truong Dang Thuy They have shown the most willingness and enthusiasm to help when I had trouble with the research Furthermore, I am sincerely grateful to the VNP lecturers and office staff for having provided so useful knowledge, inspiring lessons and great support during the course Finally, I would like to show my deep thankfulness to my family, my colleagues and my friends for always accompanying and encouraging me to confront the difficulties and achieve the target ii ABSTRACT The thesis aims to investigate the impact of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement on Vietnam’s apparel industry The TPP is a not-yet-in-force agreement and is stiffly opposed by the new president of the United States (US), however it has still received supports from remaining members Hence, the research first constructs four possible scenarios that the TPP may result in; it then analyzes the impact of the agreement on Vietnam’s apparel in each scenario through two main policies, namely tariff elimination and rule of origin The main methodology of this study is the ex-ante partial equilibrium analysis with the global simulation model “Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy” (GISM) The research uses the 2014 trade and tariff database of Vietnam and other ten key partners in the backward and forward linkages of Vietnam’s apparel industry The data is accessed through the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) The research result shows that Vietnam apparel industry seems to benefit most from the fully implemented TPP with tariff elimination by increasing exports to the other members; yet, the origin regulation would be a huge restriction for Vietnam’s benefit optimization from the agreement Furthermore, if the US withdraws from the TPP, export value and trade welfare of Vietnam’s apparel would also reduce as the US is the main importer of Vietnam’s apparel product However, if the TPP is totally failed and Vietnam shifts to join in a new free trade area namely Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with such leading apparel’s input suppliers, for example China, Korea, India, the ability for Vietnam to comply this regulation of yarn-forward is quite feasible, which in turn can promote Vietnam garment export into the new free trade area Keywords: TPP, Vietnam apparel, partial equilibrium model, GISM Contents DECLARATION i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii ABSTRACT iii LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES vii CHAPTER 1_INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Research objective and research questions 1.3 Research scope and methodology 1.4 Expected contribution of the thesis 1.5 Organization of the thesis CHAPTER 2_LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical literature 2.1.1 Theoretical analysis of the free trade agreement’s impact .5 2.1.1.1 Ex-post and ex-ante analyses 2.1.1.2 Aggregated and disaggregated analyses 2.1.2 Partial equilibrium and the impact of free trade agreement 10 2.1.2.1 Theoretical framework development 10 2.1.2.2 Analysis models 12 2.1.3 Rule of Origin’s impact on apparel industry 14 2.2 Empirical reviews 14 2.2.1 Impact of the TPP agreement 15 2.2.3 Application of GISM model 18 2.3 Logical framework 20 CHAPTER 3_TPP AGREEMENT AND VIETNAM’S APPAREL INDUSTRY 21 3.1 TPP agreement and the “yarn-forward” rule 21 3.1.1 TPP agreement 21 3.1.2 TPP regulation on apparel industry - yarn-forward” rule .22 3.2 Vietnam’s apparel industry 22 3.2.1 Vietnam’s main export apparel products and markets 23 3.2.2 Vietnam’s apparel main export competitors 23 3.2.1 Vietnam’s main import textile and apparel products and suppliers .23 CHAPTER 4_METHODOLOGY AND DATA 30 4.1 Methodology 30 4.2 Scenarios 33 4.3 Data 34 CHAPTER 5_SIMULATION RESULTS 36 5.1 Impact of TPP agreement on trade value of Vietnam's apparel industry 36 Impact of TPP agreement on trade value of Vietnam's apparel products 39 5.3 Impact of TPP agreement on trade welfare of Vietnam's apparel industry 40 Impact of TPP agreement on trade welfare of Vietnam's apparel products 43 5 Main competitors and export market of Vietnam's apparel products 43 CHAPTER 6_CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATION AND THESIS’S LIMITATION 46 6.1 Conclusion 466 6.2 Policy implication 49 6.1 Thesis’s limitaion 50 REFERENCE 51 APPENDIX 55 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Details of some main export apparel of Vietnam in 2014 .24 Table 3.1 Export shares in three leading apparel importing countries in 2014 .28 Table 5.1 Change in export value of Vietnam’s apparel in different scenarios .38 Table 5.2 Change in the apparel prices 38 Table 5.3 Export value of Vietnam’s apparel products at HS digit 4-level 39 Table 5.4 Total net welfare components of Vietnam’s apparel 41 Table 5.5 Total net welfare components of other countries 42 Table 5.6 Total net welfare components of Vietnam’s apparel products .43 Table 5.7 Main competitors and export markets of Vietnam apparel 44 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Tariff elimination in a small country 11 Figure 2.2 Conceptual framework 20 Figure 3.1 Vietnam's export apparel in 2014 23 Figure 3.2 Vietnam's main export apparel products group HS 61 and HS62 in 2014 24 Figure 3.3 Main apparel’s importing countries in 2014 25 Figure 3.4 Vietnam's main export apparel products HS61 in 2014 .26 Figure 3.5 Vietnam's main export apparel products HS62 in 2014 .26 Figure 3.6 Main apparel’s exporting countries in 2014 27 Figure 3.7 Vietnam main import textile and apparel in 2014 29 Figure 3.8 Vietnam textile’s main import markets in 2014 29 Figure 4.1: Producer and Consumer surplus 33 Figure 5.1 Change in apparel export value of countries in scenario 37 Figure 5.2 Producer surplus of countries in different scenarios 41 vii competitors of Vietnam in apparel industry As can be seen in Table 5.7, among the four countries, China dominants in the export value to all markets, Vietnam occupied the second position in the US and Japan market, while Bangladesh occupies this position in the EU Furthermore, as Japan is to be a member of the agreement, Vietnam will face a severe competition to access this market with two other rivals: China and India Meanwhile, as not being the member of the region, then Bangladesh is likely to further promote exports to the European market, which would be another competitive risk for Vietnam’s apparel to this market Table 5.7 Main competitors and export markets of Vietnam’s export apparel products (1000USD) Baseline USA JPN EU VNM 1,887,981.78 302,433.16 199,219.17 CHN 6,217,085.22 3,903,813.71 7,483,689.06 BAL 324,643.06 91,637.95 2,981,339.58 IND 463,135.43 7,273.68 385,236.09 Change in value Scenario VNM CHN 2,758,859.3 -1,346,252.2 607,689.7 -280,593.0 -846,807.2 753,371.5 BAL -218,913.1 -11,994.0 164,819.8 IND -155,453.5 -4,211.1 102,332.9 Change in value Scenario VNM -13,664.22 44,298.77 -2,003.57 CHN -59,829.82 563,993.49 -93,132.53 BAL 7,963.26 -29,956.44 64,789.42 IND 5,209.18 1,178.18 3,251.68 Author’s simulation results (2006) Table 5.7 also provides a detail in the trading market shares of the apparels among countries The table has shown more evidence of the export navigation to the intra-regional markets when there is a reduction of import duties within the bloc In term of Vietnam, the 44 main consumption market of Vietnam garment is still the US and Japan, which is also the two members with the largest consumers in the TPP region The export value of Vietnam apparel are expected to reach 12.5 billion USD for the US and 3.32 billion USD for Japan if agreements are valid and fully implemented, which means of an increasing change of 2.76 and 0.61 billion of USD respectively On the other hand, when considering the US’s withdrawal from the TPP or Vietnam is to sign a new agreement without the participation of the US, the export value of Vietnam’s apparel will be diminished In particular, the export value to US would decrease by 13,66 million However, Japan would continue to increase its import from Vietnam under any circumstances, as this countries remain as the member of all kind of agreement Vietnam join in, which will result in a mutual tariff elimination policy More information about other competitors and export market of Vietnam’s apparel products are shown in Appendix CHAPTER CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATION AND THESIS’S LIMITATION 6.1 Conclusion The thesis has employed the famous ex-ante partial equilibrium theory to be the foundation for the evaluation on the impact of TPP agreement on the Vietnam’s apparel industry In more details, the practical global simulation model “Global Simulation Analysis of Industry-Level Trade Policy” (GISM) has been applied to investigate the impact of the TPP’s tariff elimination on the Vietnam’s apparel industry at disaggregated level of subsector of products The TPP is still not in validity, so its may be ejected by the parliament of the US, as Donald Trump, the 35th President of the US has a hast opposal against the agreement As the result, the study takes into account four possibilities that may happened to the TPP: First, optimistically, the TPP is completely implemented and Vietnam has enough condition to enjoy the total tariff elimination to 0% Second, due to the restraint of the original regulation ‘yarn forward’, Vietnam apparel can just receive a 50% tariff reduction Third, the US withdraws from the TPP, which means a high import tariff of US applied on Vietnam apparel Last, Vietnam joins in a new agreement without US and its NAFTA partners (Mexico and Canada), which consists of the ASEAN countries and the other Pacific countries: Australia, China, India, Japan and Korea By analyzing the impact of the agreement on Vietnam apparel in each scenario, the thesis come to several findings: In term of the apparel industry’s trade value and welfare First, TPP members tend to increase their trading value due to the tariff reduction after the TPP agreement The main exporters are China, Bangladesh and Vietnam; the main importers are the US, EU and Japan The ability to benefit from the elimination of tariffs will be declined under the rules of origin ‘yarn-forward’ Next, if the United States withdraws from the TPP, all of the rest of TPP members still get benefits due to the tariff elimination of other members; however, this increase is significantly lower compared to the first two scenarios, as the US is the largest consumption market of many exporters in the region In the case of the TPP’s invalidity and a new forming free trade area involving Vietnam, Australia, Japan, China, Korea, India, but without EU, Bangladesh, the US and its two NAFTA members (Canada and Mexico), the members of the new agreement are the one getting benefit The biggest winner is China with an increasing change in export value Among a variety of apparel export products, of products HS code 61 HS code 62 occupy the dominant proportion of export, account for 80.61%, particularly, group of product with sub-headings HS code: 6104, 6105, 6109, 6010, 6201, 6202, 6203, 6204 creating the major exporting profit Of all these mentioned groups of products, the group of garments in HS code 6110 is the main export product of Vietnam, following by the group of products in HS code 6204 Furthermore, there is no change in the position of these main export products under different scenarios About the export value, on the first two scenario, all groups of products witness the increase in the value of export However, with the US’s withdrawal from the TPP or Vietnam is to sign a new agreement without the participation of the US, the export value of Vietnam’s apparel will slightly be diminished in some grou of product, especially the HS6110 and HS6204 In term of the apparel industry’s welfare For Vietnam’s apparel both in aggregated and disaggregated level, the gain from export dominant the import in most scenarios; which in turn leads to a high amount of the producer surplus Together with the consumer surplus, the value will compensate for the loss in tariff revenue, resulting in a net gain in total welfare The origin regulation and the US’s withdrawal from the TPP have caused a huge restriction for Vietnam’s benefit optimization from the agreement because the US is the main importer of the target product Together with the gain from export reflected by the produce surplus, the members of the agreement also benefit from the apparel import activities, reflected by consumer surplus However, with high import tariffs applied before the agreement, a number of members, after the tariff elimination, witness a loss in total net welfare In particular, Vietnam, Australia and Mexico are the gainers in term of the total net welfare, while as a contrast conclusion are for Canada, Japan and the US Especially, when the TPP is likely not to be in effect and a new agreement is formed, Chinese would be the biggest beneficiary from export activities with large gain in producer surplus In term of export market and competitors: The US is still the main importer of Viet Nam’s apparel, followed by Japan and the EU with different positions depending on kinds of products On the other hand, China, India and Bangladesh are reported as the main exporting competitors of Vietnam in apparel industry Particularly, China in the main rival of Vietnam in all main export market; meanwhile, Bangladesh dominants Vietnam on the EU market 6.2 Policy implication In order to be able to satisfy the rule of origin yarn-forward, leading the ability to gain the preferential tariff or other trade barriers reduction and elimination from the tariff elimination of any trade agreement: + The government should have strategies for the development of supply for input material such as: cotton, fiber, synthetic fibers and accessories; orienting enterprise engaging in enhancing the research design, product quality testing and confronting technical barriers imposed by importing countries + The Vietnam’s domestic garment enterprises should actively invest more for the existing processing capacity of sewing and embroidery; completing the production in spinning, weaving and dyeing; improving products with higher added value (from CMT procedure to FOB or ODM procedure Besides, Vietnam should actively diversify the consumption export markets On the on hand, continuing to export to the traditional markets such as the US, EU and Japan; e the severe competitions from other rival like China, India and Bangladesh The new target markets can be Asian region, Africa region, The Central and South America,… On the other hand, apparel manufacturer should concentrate more on exploiting and expanding the domestic market, as this be a more familiar markets, easier to access with less barriers relating to trade such as tariffs or rules of origin Finally, the government should actively promotes the participation to trade agreements, integrating with countries have advantages in textile raw materials supply or are major import partners This can help Vietnam apparel product to be more feasibly satisfy with the rules of origin ‘yarn-forward’ as well as enhance export ability 6.3 Thesis’s limitation The most noticeable limitation of the thesis is the disadvantage of the partial equilibrium model in comparison with the general equilibrium analysis In detail, the partial equilibrium GISM is not able to capture the linkage of production and consumption among different sectors furthermore, it may be weak at simulating the impact over a long period The likely impacts are most concentrated on trade flow and 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The Curious Case of the Missing Foreign Tariffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol 71(4), pages 704-14 54 APPENDIX Appendix 1: Detail of Vietnam's main export apparel products in group HS 61 and HS 62 in 2014  HS6104 : Suits, ensembles, jackets, dresses, skirts, divided skirts, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (not swimwear), women's or girls', knitted or crocheted  HS6105: Shirts; men's or boys', knitted or crocheted  HS6109: T-shirts, singlets and other vests; knitted or crocheted  HS6110: Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles; knitted or crocheted  HS6201: Overcoats, car-coats, capes, cloaks, anoraks (including ski-jackets), wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, men's or boys', other than those of heading no 6203 (not knitted or crocheted)  HS6202: Coats; women's or girls' overcoats, carcoats, capes, cloaks, anoraks, ski-jackets, wind-cheaters, wind-jackets and similar articles, other than those of heading no 6204 (not knitted or crocheted)  HS6203: Suits, ensembles, jackets, blazers, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear); men's or boys' (not knitted or crocheted)  HS6204: Suits, ensembles, jackets, dresses, skirts, divided skirts, trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts (other than swimwear); women's or girls' (not knitted or crocheted) Source: The World Custom Organization http://www.wcoomd.org/en/topics/nomenclature/instrument-and-tools/hs-online.aspx Apendix _ Apparel In Total Scenario A- TOTAL CHANGE IN EXPORT VALUES (1000 USD) Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario AUS 3,794.44 1,845.57 349.8 1,077.3 BAL -131,123.69 - 63,771.61 -9,008.5 114,320.6 CAN 144,773.73 68,881.55 6,352.4 2,765.7 CHN - 1,062,890.45 - 517,758.53 -138,981.6 3,042,851.1 EU - 68,972.96 - 33,549.56 -8,252.1 -346340.8 IND - 91,161.70 - 44,371.39 -1,070.5 205,860.2 JPN 38,170.46 18,603.67 11,000.8 48,888.8 KOR - 11,005.26 - 5,369.85 -2,021.9 90,356.6 MEX 869,615.43 409,668.88 49,697.0 47,222.4 USA 317,052.47 151,276.11 -11,927.4 -25,530.7 VNM 2,549,567.54 1,226,580.89 348,668.1 658,020.8 B- TOTAL CHANGE IN IMPORT VALUES Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario Scenario AUS 29,813.6 BAL -156.9 CAN 278,133.2 CHN -14,550.8 EU -92,348.3 IND -279.2 JPN 331,932.7 KOR -48,627.9 MEX 169,850.7 1,887,753.6 USA VNM 16,299.8 14,083.4 9,648.1 475,294.8 -46.6 -0.3 -114.033 127,391.3 84,764.5 -15,161.3 -5,177.5 -1,167 185,658.6 -27,235.9 -4,026.2 -174,982 -53.3 25.8 25,210.46 155,772.2 146,366.7 2,618,973 -17,866 -3813.4 829,721.6 77,672.4 26,373.9 -3,874.86 879,912.5 -19,302.7 -141,026 7,583.5 5,936.9 39,791.45 Author’s simulation result (2016) Appendix Change in trade values by origin and destination (1000USD) Destination Scenario (i) AUS BAL CAN CHN EU IND JPN KOR MEX USA VNM AUS 0.0 0.0 875.4 -262.9 -2728.0 -10.6 226.7 -104.2 62.3 5601.2 134.5 BAL -3957.8 0.0 -62270.1 13672.8 164819.8 722.6 -11994.0 10762.2 -23863.0 -218913.1 -102.9 CAN 1538.8 0.0 0.0 -1007.2 -30344.2 -80.0 5012.6 -4900.6 8749.8 165772.9 31.7 CHN -14357.7 1135.0 -258264.9 0.0 753371.5 2468.1 -280593.0 248673.6 -147857.8 -1346252.2 -21213.1 -1502.7 EU -873.4 0.0 -25795.5 80969.2 0.0 1338.0 -20195.6 46532.3 -33414.7 -116030.5 IND -1052.4 11.0 -18780.4 5643.2 102332.9 0.0 -4211.1 4245.0 -23720.0 -155453.5 -176.2 JPN 2329.4 0.0 6905.3 -11609.1 -17706.2 -80.0 0.0 -4684.0 375.8 26265.3 36374.1 -6.2 0.0 -1421.6 8195.8 3853.7 28.5 -1587.0 0.0 -3155.7 -10808.3 -6104.4 MEX 1323.2 -1302.9 130574.8 -3079.8 -37913.5 -134.5 3203.5 -2531.9 0.0 778712.5 764.0 USA 12786.9 0.0 213017.7 -10089.4 -181227.1 -2768.6 34380.9 -17609.5 260466.7 0.0 8094.8 KOR VNM (ii) 32082.8 AUS 0.0 BAL 293292.5 CAN -96983.4 CHN -846807.2 EU AUS 0.0 0.0 423.5 -126.5 BAL -1931.3 0.0 -30316.2 CAN 732.9 0.0 0.0 CHN -7004.1 548.2 EU -428.4 IND -513.7 JPN 1130.9 -1762.7 IND 607689.7 JPN -329010.8 KOR -1311.8 -5.1 109.7 6684.0 80445.1 351.9 -469.0 -14161.7 -37.3 -125792.0 0.0 368027.1 0.0 -12568.0 39588.1 5.3 -9145.3 2759.3 0.0 3352.0 -5605.6 -8540.7 132207.3 MEX 2758859.3 USA 0.0 VNM -50.2 30.2 2710.9 65.0 -5855.9 5257.9 -11621.9 -106734.7 -50.5 2380.0 -2278.3 4127.2 78572.9 14.9 1204.4 -137095.4 121574.3 -72055.3 -656733.6 -10432.2 0.0 651.8 -9881.2 22742.0 -16285.9 -56628.8 -739.2 49962.3 0.0 -2056.9 2074.5 -11555.6 -75814.7 -86.6 -38.6 0.0 -2265.9 182.5 12757.1 17632.0 -3003.0 KOR -2.8 0.0 -692.3 4011.8 1885.5 13.9 -774.1 0.0 -1538.1 -5270.7 MEX 632.5 -600.1 61094.0 -1414.4 -17459.8 -61.9 1518.3 -1160.4 0.0 366764.2 356.5 USA 6095.9 0.0 100887.5 -4717.1 -84899.6 -1297.2 16368.5 -8220.5 123232.0 0.0 3826.6 VNM (iii) 15371.5 AUS 0.0 BAL 140148.1 CAN -45888.1 CHN -401182.3 EU -835.2 IND 291059.2 JPN -155539.4 KOR 63157.3 MEX 1320289.9 USA 0.0 VNM AUS 0.0 0.0 514.9 -19.8 -246.4 -1.0 151.0 -7.0 38.3 -157.4 77.2 BAL -2260.7 0.0 -30368.5 1794.4 11795.9 -43.6 -9219.5 1351.8 -5534.5 23521.6 -45.4 CAN 1782.7 0.0 0.0 -28.2 -1278.0 -3.6 4882.7 -94.2 6138.8 -5067.8 20.1 CHN -17284.4 74.5 -133210.0 0.0 96560.7 176.1 -285387.7 33227.4 -34422.9 211179.2 -9894.6 EU -1002.2 0.0 -13316.2 11256.0 0.0 76.2 -20327.0 6114.4 -7811.3 17460.2 -702.1 IND -921.0 0.0 -9706.9 640.2 1968.1 0.0 -3885.4 483.9 -5703.5 16136.9 -82.9 JPN 1380.0 0.0 3695.8 -3843.1 -5059.5 -23.0 0.0 -1840.4 217.0 -2662.7 19136.6 KOR -48.5 0.0 -739.3 1308.1 687.8 4.0 -1880.3 0.0 -719.1 2223.2 -2857.8 MEX 2196.2 -74.8 99300.2 -137.9 -2073.0 -7.7 4110.5 -99.4 0.0 -54024.6 507.6 USA 269.6 0.0 -10257.1 644.4 6668.2 89.3 -1031.7 1479.6 -9567.8 0.0 -221.8 0.0 178851.6 CAN -12781.1 CHN -113050.0 EU -240.9 IND 458954.1 JPN -44429.5 KOR 83738.9 MEX -227911.3 USA VNM (iv) 25536.4 AUS BAL 0.0 VNM AUS 0.0 0.0 465.1 1032.0 -312.2 17.3 107.4 194.3 40.1 -238.0 136.4 BAL -97171.4 0.0 -371532.0 -63758.4 666808.8 -18437.9 -160216.8 -55874.1 -78625.7 200750.0 -213.2 CAN 1391.2 0.0 0.0 2036.7 108.2 77.6 4064.5 4350.8 6530.5 2661.2 36.5 CHN 567871.2 -217.7 1291424.5 0.0 -870724.1 50043.0 2677431.3 665164.2 490373.8 -512095.2 -72278.1 EU -31628.0 0.2 -125284.7 -173534.0 0.0 -8311.5 -238890.4 -157780.7 -88644.1 382477.7 -846.5 IND 23132.9 5.7 92499.0 60829.4 2759.0 0.0 40461.3 12646.7 80001.2 11860.5 2248.9 JPN 23.4 0.0 2342.8 42599.3 -19004.7 82.9 0.0 4618.3 182.1 -10968.9 31806.4 KOR 356.8 0.0 5162.4 64852.0 -25681.4 308.4 6176.4 0.0 8607.2 -35651.1 77735.6 MEX 1699.2 44.2 95652.4 5071.3 -182.5 107.3 3334.5 1869.5 0.0 5071.6 930.8 USA -6557.9 0.0 -109689.0 -2627.3 117377.7 -345.5 -20689.1 -16763.8 -127808.1 0.0 159.9 VNM 18311.3 0.0 166441.0 253518.9 -117196.4 1994.9 310080.3 378498.8 88099.9 -249652.6 0.0 Author’s simulation results (2016) ... STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LIKELY- DEAD TRANS- PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND VIETNAM’S APPAREL A thesis submitted in... 2016 DECLARATION I hereby certify that the thesis ? ?Likely- dead Trans- Pacific Partnership Agreement and Vietnam’s apparel? ?? is my original work and have not been being submitted for any other degrees... 3_TPP AGREEMENT AND VIETNAM’S APPAREL INDUSTRY 21 3.1 TPP agreement and the “yarn-forward” rule 21 3.1.1 TPP agreement 21 3.1.2 TPP regulation on apparel