Jose Miguel Guzman, ICF International
Migration, Urbanization, and Climate Change Adaptation: Facts and Challenges
Key points from Dr Guzman’s presentation:
Migration has always has been a tool for adaptation, although not necessarily the tool of first resort
Some sub-groups are more equipped to handle climate change due to their access to resources and other advantages Understanding the role of inequalities is crucial in assessing how individuals view migration as a strategy to reduce environmental risks.
Urbanization trends in developing countries highlight the critical need to consider adaptation strategies in urban areas when addressing climate change and migration The experiences of these regions can greatly enhance comprehensive urban planning efforts.
Dr Guzman highlighted the crucial distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation, noting that while the need to reduce greenhouse gases is widely acknowledged, the specifics of successful adaptation remain unclear Despite this uncertainty, individuals will utilize their existing knowledge, tools, and resources to adapt Historically, migration has served as a means of adaptation; however, it was not always the preferred option due to people's strong ties to their homes and communities.
Dr Guzman highlighted the growing international emphasis on the impact of climate change on human systems, leading to a nuanced understanding of climate change risks and their effects on diverse populations This approach considers the social, political, and economic factors that contribute to unequal vulnerabilities, emphasizing the complex and unpredictable challenges posed by climate change-driven migration.
Migration decisions are influenced not only by the severity and duration of climate hazards but also by the vulnerability of individuals to these hazards Certain groups with better access to resources may adapt to climate change in place, reducing their need to migrate Conversely, those with limited resources may become "trapped migrants," desiring to move but unable to do so Understanding these inequalities is crucial for comprehending how individuals evaluate migration as a response to environmental risks.
Inequality is starkly evident in cities of developing countries, which face the brunt of climate change impacts amidst inadequate infrastructure These urban areas are grappling with rapid demographic growth, with populations expected to double every 10-15 years, and a youthful demographic that is more prone to migration Furthermore, over 90% of the anticipated population growth by 2050 will occur in cities, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies focused on urban environments Thus, the experiences of these cities not only reveal the complexities of climate change-induced migration but also provide valuable insights for effective urban planning.
Figure 1 Core related risk concepts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
Working Group II, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014)
Figure 2 Concepts and dimensions of multidimensional vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014)
Dr Guzman concluded his presentation by highlighting key research and policy challenges related to climate change-driven migration He emphasized the need for advanced demographic modeling that integrates climate factors and political decision-making Additionally, he advocated for the utilization of new data sources, such as big data, to enhance the analysis and forecasting of future population trends.
Climate change disproportionately impacts the poorest individuals and nations, highlighting how inequalities hinder sustainable progress and create migration barriers However, history shows that humans have continuously adapted to challenges Urbanization offers new opportunities for adaptation, while advancements in technology and education enhance our capacity to respond Additionally, shifting demographics in regions like Europe may necessitate the influx of young migrants to support the workforce, prompting a re-evaluation of migration as a viable option rather than a crisis.
David A Plane, University of Arizona
Migration Patterns Today and The Factors That Influence Them
Key points from Dr Plane’s presentation:
Two important trends that need to be considered in future U.S population forecasts are continued changes in global climate and aging of the U.S population
Migration is significantly shaped not only by push-pull factors but also by the age and life stage of individuals The impact of these age-related factors on population trends and community age structures differs across various locations.
Future research must explore how perceptions of climate change threats vary across age and other individual migrant characteristics
Population projections for a specific area are created by analyzing the balance of births, deaths, and net migration, which includes both incoming and outgoing migration Migration is typically the most significant and challenging factor to predict when it comes to demographic changes at local and regional levels To generate accurate and dependable population forecasts, it is essential to gather data points that effectively indicate future trends.
Dr Plane emphasizes two critical trends for future U.S population forecasts: the ongoing effects of climate change and the aging population He notes that climate change remains a developing factor in population projection research, while age is a crucial element for analyzing migration patterns and the connections between climate change and regional migration in the U.S.
Migration scholars frequently utilize a "push-pull" theoretical framework to analyze the motivations behind migration Push factors, such as limited economic opportunities, conflict, family challenges, high housing costs, and natural disasters, drive individuals away from their home countries Conversely, pull factors attract migrants to new destinations, including perceived economic opportunities, lower living expenses, family connections, and favorable climates.
Migration is significantly shaped by age and life stage, as highlighted by Dr Plane's presentation on the "migration age schedule." Research indicates that the highest levels of mobility are observed during the late teens and early twenties, underscoring the importance of these formative years in migration patterns.
According to Smith et al (2002), a population projection involves the mechanical extrapolation of trends based on specific assumptions, whereas a population forecast is the collection of projections considered most likely to happen.
4 In his plenary presentation, Dr Plane distinguishes between the two dominant approaches in migration research:
The article discusses two key aspects of migration patterns: individual/behavioral and aggregate/geographical factors During the "emerging adulthood" phase, which spans from the mid-20s to early 50s, there is a noticeable decline in the percentage of young adults relocating However, smaller increases in mobility are observed as individuals approach their 50s and early 60s, often due to the "empty nest" phenomenon and pre-retirement transitions Additionally, later in life, elderly individuals tend to move back to areas where family members reside, further influencing these migration trends.
Population trends and community age structures differ by location, influenced by migration patterns For instance, the migration between State College, Pennsylvania, and New York City is characterized by a younger demographic, contrasting sharply with the patterns between New York City and Sarasota, Florida Research indicates that retirees are inclined to relocate to smaller towns, while younger individuals seek urban amenities, thereby driving growth in metropolitan areas Ultimately, age significantly impacts the reasons behind migration, highlighting the need for future research to examine how perceptions of climate change threats vary across different age groups and individual migrant characteristics.
The Migration Age Schedule illustrates how mobility trends fluctuate with age, highlighting a significant shift in movement patterns as individuals grow older Notably, the concept of "parental shift" emphasizes that young people's mobility is often influenced by their parents' relocation This data, sourced from Dr David Plane, underscores the intricate relationship between age and migration behaviors.
Urban cores in the United States are experiencing rapid growth, fueled by density, public transportation, and access to cultural amenities Cities like Portland and Seattle have seen significant increases in downtown populations, ranking 6th and 9th in absolute growth from 2000 to 2010 To sustain this momentum, urban areas must implement policies that optimize land use and encourage densification, or risk future growth shifting to suburban and exurban areas This shift poses challenges for climate change, necessitating that public officials address transportation and housing needs Comprehensive planning for future growth should focus on integrating robust public transportation services with dense housing development in an environmentally sustainable manner.
Dr Plane encouraged the audience to delve into the US EPA’s Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios datasets, available at www.epa.gov/iclus These datasets offer detailed spatial projections of population growth, housing density, and impervious surfaces, presented at a 90m x 90m grid scale.
2100 for different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Robert McLeman, Wilfrid Laurier University
What Does Current Research Tell Us About How Climate Change Affects Migration Factors?
Key points from Dr McLeman’s presentation:
Survey design and data collection issues are particularly important for advancing our future understanding of environmental-related migration
The "MESA" framework provides a valuable perspective on environmental-driven migration, positing that the likelihood of migration due to environmental issues (M) depends on the physical characteristics of the environmental risks (E), the vulnerability of livelihoods and socioeconomic stability to these risks (S), and the availability of adaptation strategies beyond migration (A).
Climate change is expected to drive an increase in migration to the Northwest, but this shift will not happen instantaneously Instead, it is anticipated to occur in waves, reminiscent of previous migration patterns observed in Portland and other regions.
Dr McLeman's presentation highlighted the nuanced impact of environmental and climate factors on migration, emphasizing four key influences: lifestyle preferences, love (including family and social networks), economic opportunities, and survival needs He illustrated that the connection between these factors and environmental conditions can be particularly evident, as seen in the increasing number of Hondurans intercepted at the U.S border.
5 For more information, see: http://www.census.gov/population/metro/data/c2010sr-01patterns.html
Naturalization Service increased notably in the 6 to 12 months following Hurricane Mitch, which caused extensive damage in Honduras in 1998
Research by Dr McLeman and colleagues highlights that factors such as pollution, health impacts like asthma, and food insecurity significantly influence legal immigration from Bangladesh to Canada However, these critical elements are often overlooked in demographic surveys, which typically do not inquire about environmental hazards Dr McLeman emphasizes that improving survey design and data collection methods is essential for enhancing our understanding of migration driven by environmental issues.
Dr McLeman identifies five key principles of environment-driven migration: Firstly, the majority of migration occurs within national borders, with only about 20 percent involving international movement Secondly, when migration does cross borders, it typically involves movement to neighboring countries Thirdly, the majority of migrants are young adults of working age, as they are the most mobile demographic Fourthly, migration patterns often follow established networks, known as chain migration Lastly, migration flows predominantly from rural areas to urban centers and from smaller towns to larger cities.
Research indicates that the speed of environmental events significantly influences migration outcomes Rapid-onset disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, trigger immediate out-migration and subsequent fluctuations of individuals seeking job opportunities in and out of the affected region In contrast, gradual disasters like droughts lead to slower, more predictable migration patterns.
Dr McLeman proposes the "MESA" framework to analyze environmentally-driven migration, where migration potential (M) is influenced by the physical characteristics of environmental risks (E), the vulnerability of livelihoods and socioeconomic well-being to these risks (S), and the availability of adaptation strategies aside from migration (A).
Dr McLeman emphasized that climate change is expected to drive more people to migrate to the Northwest, but this process will unfold gradually, occurring in waves similar to past migration trends seen in Portland and other regions The extent of this migration will largely depend on the severity of climate impacts in other areas.
Appropriate steps for comprehensive planning include: 1) knowing existing migration in-flows,
Understanding climate-related vulnerabilities in migrant source areas and reducing local climate-related risks are crucial for effective planning Dr McLeman highlighted the need to protect local water supplies and incorporate sustainability into planning efforts By integrating climate change and migration considerations into a comprehensive planning system, we can ensure that these factors are addressed in future decision-making processes.
Jose Miguel Guzman, ICF; David A Plane, University of Arizona; Robert McLeman, Wilfrid Laurier University; Tom Armstrong, City of Portland; Crystal Raymond, Seattle City Light; Philip Mote,
Key points from the panel discussion:
Climate change complicates the analysis of long-term trends in population and other planning factors Understanding the characteristics of incoming migrants is as crucial as assessing the overall volume of migration to the region.
To effectively manage the uncertainties of future population growth, it is essential to incorporate flexibility into planning processes However, accommodating this flexibility, such as by preparing for the highest population projections, poses significant challenges, especially in relation to the financing and construction of infrastructure.
Climate change-driven migration is a significant issue that warrants attention, though it shouldn't provoke alarm It's crucial for researchers and practitioners to begin gathering data and exploring the various dimensions of this phenomenon to address it effectively.
The morning plenary featured a panel discussion with invited speakers and representatives from the public sector and climate science community, focusing on the impact of climate change on migration Panelists explored how climate-driven migration is relevant to their work and the associated challenges They also reflected on key ideas from the morning discussions to enhance our understanding of the implications of climate-driven migration The session ended with an engaging Q&A from the audience.
The panel discussion highlighted key insights regarding the uncertainty of long-term trends in population and migration for planning purposes While many assume that in-migration in growing areas like Portland and Seattle will continue to rise, research indicates that nearly as many people leave these cities as arrive, raising questions about the permanence of current migration patterns Additionally, the aging population plays a crucial role, as Millennials are moving out of their highly mobile phase, potentially leading to a decline in in-migration Conversely, the retiring Baby Boomer generation, though smaller in number, is becoming more mobile, further complicating the demographic landscape.
Climate change complicates the interpretation of energy demand trends, as noted by Ms Raymond, who highlighted a decline in electric demand from Seattle City Light's customers despite population growth, attributed to enhanced energy efficiency The potential for climate change-driven migration and its effects on seasonal power demand further challenge traditional long-term usage projections Additionally, the characteristics of migrants—such as their previous reliance on air conditioning—can significantly influence local energy needs, and the influx of low-income individuals may impact City Light's support programs for these residents.