GM Report Assumptions Snapshot Draft 11.19.21_202111191327114001

Growth Monitoring Report Assumptions Snapshot –2021 DRAFT Below is a snapshot comparison of the monitoring data discussed in the comprehensive report compared to previous estimates Adopted* Assumption or Other Data: This is the data or adopted assumption used as a forecast or projection in the most recent adopted land demand and capacity studies for Eugene’s 20-year period, currently the 2012-2032 Residential and Employment Land Supply Studies adopted in 2017 Some data was specifically adopted as an input into the UGB analysis and is denoted with an “*.” Other data was included in the adopted studies to provide context but is not necessarily an adopted assumption Monitoring Data: This is either the total cumulative data or overall average of data for Eugene (unless otherwise noted) during the monitoring period up to the time the comprehensive report was compiled, or point in time data available at the time the comprehensive report was compiled Adopted* Assumption or Other Data General Planning Period 2012-2032* Population Growth Rate (new people in 20 years) 0.9%* 33,778 Population Growth Rate Forecast Employment Growth Rate 0.9% November 19, 2021 1.4%* Notes Monitoring Data (years or point in time) 20 years - this does not change until a new UGB analysis Extrapolated from 2009 PSU forecast 8.5 years Extrapolated from 2009 PSU forecast 2012-2022 OED forecast for Lane County 0.9% 1.2% 3.1% Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Notes Change n/a 2012-2020 Portland State University (PSU) annual estimates 2020-2040 PSU 2021 forecast 2012-2018 Oregon Employment Department (OED) covered jobs data + No Change + pg Employment Growth Rate Forecast Households Population in Group Quarters (number of people in GQ) Residential Vacancy Rate (dwellings) Persons per Household (new du after GQ & vacancies inputs) Household Composition Population of Latino Origin Population by Race and Latino Origin November 19, 2021 Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 1.4%* Notes 2012-2022 OED forecast for Lane County 2010 Census Includes deduction for dorms; 60% (2007 Census) were in dorms, and UO projected no student growth for the next 10 years 4.6%* 1,554 Monitoring Data (years or point in time) 0.8% 3.8% 6,482 5%* 719 2010 Census 3.6% 2,745 2.24* 2010 Census (safe harbor) 2.27 48% Nonfamily, 27% Family w/o children, 24% Family w/ children 8% 2010 Census households city-wide 50% Nonfamily, 28% Family w/o children, 23% Family w/ children 10.2% 2011 ACS 12,500 households city-wide 82% White non- 2011 ACS households cityHispanic, wide 78% White non-Hispanic, Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Notes Change 2019-2029 from OED forecast for Lane County _ 2019 1-year ACS UO November 2020 UO projects moderate growth (2.0-2.5% per year) undergrad student enrollment until 2026 then stabilized 2019 1-year ACS 2019 1-year ACS _ _ + + 2019 1-year ACS Nonfamily 2019 1-year ACS + 2019 1-year ACS _ pg Households by Tenure Owner and Renter Households by Tenure and Housing Type Single-family detached Single-family attached Two to four units Five or more units November 19, 2021 Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 10% All other races, 8% Hispanic or Latino 45% Owner Occupied, 55% Renter Occupied Notes 2011 ACS households citywide 72% Owner Occupied, 28% Renter Occupied 25% Owner Occupied, 75% Renter Occupied 2011 ACS households citywide 5% Owner Occupied, 95% Renter Occupied 3% Owner Occupied, 97% Renter Occupied 2011 ACS households citywide 2011 ACS households citywide 2011 ACS households citywide Monitoring Data (years or point in time) 12% All other races, 10% Hispanic or Latino 47% Owner Occupied, 53% Renter Occupied 78% Owner Occupied, 22% Renter Occupied 37% Owner Occupied, 63% Renter Occupied 2% Owner Occupied, 98% Renter Occupied 3% Owner Occupied, 97% Renter Occupied Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Notes Change White nonHispanic _ 2019 1-year ACS Owner occupied 2019 1-year ACS + Owner occupied 2019 1-year ACS + Owner occupied _ 2019 1-year ACS Owner occupied 2019 1-year ACS No Change pg Latino Owned Households Latino Owned Households by Age of Household Households & Affordability People in Poverty Median Household Income Median Family Income November 19, 2021 Adopted* Notes Assumption or Other Data 64% Not 2010 Census Oregon Hispanic/Latino, households city-wide 40% Hispanic/Latino Monitoring Data (years or point in time) Notes (pending 2020 Census) 1% below 25, 25% 25-44, 46% 45-64, 28% 65+ 1% below 25, 24% 25-44, 46% 45-64, 29% 65+ 2% below 25, 49% 25-44, 39% 45-64, 10% 65+ 2010 Census all Oregon Households (pending 2020 Census) 2010 Census nonHispanic/Latino Oregon households (pending 2020 Census) 2010 Census Hispanic/Latino Oregon households (pending 2020 Census) 27.2% 2011 ACS households citywide 17.3% 2019 1-year ACS $37,339 2011 1-year ACS (not adjusted for inflation) $51,000 2019 1-year ACS (not adjusted for inflation) 2019 1-year ACS (not adjusted for inflation) $84,543 Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Change pg Median Sales Price of Single-family Housing Adopted* Assumption or Other Data Median Sales Price of Single-family Housing by Eugene areas Median Sales Price of Single-family Housing by Housing Type Median Sales Price of Single-family Housing by Lane County City Median Gross Rent - Ratio of House Value to (Median Household) Income Percentage of Renter Monthly Income Spent on Rent Cost-Burdened Households 6.3 Cost-Burdened Renters and Owners Severely Cost-Burdened November 19, 2021 Notes Monitoring Data (years or point in time) Notes Change (pending analysis) $432,000 Sept 2021, Redfin.com (pending analysis) (pending analysis) (pending analysis) $826/month + _ $1,031/month 2019 1-year ACS 2011 1-year ACS 6.4 2019 1-year ACS 39.4% 2011 1-year ACS 2012 1-year ACS was 46.8% 38.9% 2019 1-year ACS 50% all households 2011 1-year ACS 41% all households 2019 1-year ACS 64% renter households 33% owner households 28% all households 2011 1-year ACS 56% renter households 25% owner households 20% all households 2019 1-year ACS _ 2019 1-year ACS _ 2011 1-year ACS Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT No significant change _ pg Severely Cost-Burdened Renters and Owners Residential Land Demands Population Growth Rate (new people in 20 years) Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 43% renter households 11% owner households Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 0.9%* 33,778 Notes 2011 1-year ACS 4.6%* 1,554 Residential Vacancy Rate (du) 5%* 719 November 19, 2021 Notes 2019 1-year ACS Notes Monitoring Data (year period or point in time) Notes 2012-2032 from 2009 PSU population forecast 1.2% 15,285 1.2% population 1.4% new dwellings PSU annual certified estimate PSU annual certified estimate and 12/2012mid-2021 issued building permits 2019 1-year ACS Population Growth to New Dwellings Growth Rates Population in Group Quarters (number of people in GQ) Monitoring Data (years or point in time) 30% renter households 10% owner households 2010 Census Includes deduction for dorms; 60% (2007 Census) were in dorms, and UO projected no student growth for the next 10 years 2010 Census 3.8% 6,482 3.6% Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT 2019 1-year ACS Change _ Change On pace On pace _ _ pg Persons per Household (new du after GQ & vacancies inputs) Residential Development Mix of Existing Dwellings Mix of New Dwellings Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 2.24* 15,105 Notes 2010 Census (safe harbor) 56% single2011 ACS family detached 8% singlefamily attached 36% multifamily 55% singlefamily detached* 8% singlefamily attached 37% multifamily* Monitoring Data Notes (year period or point in time) 2.27 2019 1-year ACS 56% singlefamily detached 7% single-family attached 37% multi-family Change No significant change Mid-2021 estimate from 2012 residential addresses plus 8,011 new dwellings (methodology change) 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Under pace (singlefamily detached, single-family attached, 2-4 dwellings) Met Number of New Dwellings Issued Single-family and Multi-family Dwellings for Select Lane County Cities Density (net) November 19, 2021 15,105 8,011 See chart (pending analysis) Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits From HUD Issued building permits database (5+dwellings) On pace pg Adopted* Assumption or Other Data Low Residential Medium Residential High Residential Commercial 5.4 2012-2032 (based on 2001-2012 data) 15.4 2012-2032 (reflects land use code change increasing minimum density) Monitoring Data Notes (year period or point in time) 7.1 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits (collection methodology change) 14.3 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits (collection methodology change) 39.6 32.6 2012-2032 (based on 2001-2012 data) 78.6 n/a 2001-2012 data indicated densities like those on High Density Residential land Additional dwellings above the average Additional dwellings above the average 679 dwellings Efficiency Measures Downtown 1,003 dwellings R-2 Zone density change 566 dwellings Re-designation to LDR 1,833 dwellings Affordable Housing sites 55 dwellings (MDR) November 19, 2021 Notes Specific sites Specific sites 304 dwellings 71 dwellings 101 dwellings (MDR) 138 dwellings (LDR) Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits (collection methodology change) 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits (collection methodology change) 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Change + + (up from historical) + + (up from historical) On pace On pace Below pace met pg Adopted* Assumption or Other Data Accessory Dwellings 84 dwellings Residential Land Capacity Remaining, Vacant and Partially Vacant Land only Notes Additional dwellings above the average 1,853 acres 9,327 dwellings 196 acres 2,022 dwellings 35 acres 684 dwellings Low Residential Capacity Medium Residential Capacity High Residential Capacity Employment Land Demands Employment Growth Rate (new jobs in 20 years) November 19, 2021 Monitoring Data Notes (year period or point in time) 12 dwellings 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 1.4% (36,688 total jobs) Notes 2012-2032 Monitoring Data (year period or point in time) 1.1% (covered jobs only) Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Change TBD 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology) 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology) 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology) Notes Change 2021-2041 Used mid-point of adopted forecast (1.4%) and 2019 Lane County forecast (0.8%), need estimate for total jobs (covered plus not covered jobs) TBD pg People to Covered jobs Ratio Employment Development Adopted* Assumption or Other Data 1.4 jobs to person Notes 2012-2032 Monitoring Data Notes (year period or point in time) 1.7 jobs to 2018 jobs data person 55% commercial, 12% retail, 19% industrial, 14% public 2012-2032 55% commercial, 13% retail, 2018 jobs data 18% industrial, 15% public Commercial Non-retail 68 EPA 2012-2032 (based on 2006 jobs data) 65 EPA Commercial Retail 22 EPA 2012-2032 (based on 2006 jobs data) 25 EPA Industrial 10 EPA 2012-2032 (based on 2006 jobs data) EPA Mix of job types Change + No significant change Density 2018 jobs data 2018 jobs data 2018 jobs data No significant change No significant change No significant change Efficiency Measures Downtown Programs 18 acres E-1 Campus Employment Zone 48 acres E-2 Mixed Use Employment Zone 54 acres November 19, 2021 Additional development above the average Additional development above the average Additional development above the average acres 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace acre 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace acres 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Below pace Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT pg 10 Re-designation to Commercial Brownfield Assessment Program Employment Land Capacity Remaining, Vacant and Partially Vacant Land only Adopted* Assumption or Other Data Notes acres Specific sites acres 45 acres Specific sites acres 103 acres 4,235 jobs 1,318 acres 14,498 jobs Commercial Industrial Public & Semi-Public Lands Monitoring Data (year period or point in time) Adopted* Assumption or Other Data Notes Monitoring Data (year period or point in time) 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits 12/2012- mid-2021 issued building permits Change Below pace Below pace 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology) 2021 BLI Rerun (refined methodology) Notes Change To be determined at UGB analysis To be determined at UGB analysis To be determined at UGB analysis Park demand Utilities demand Other Public Uses demand November 19, 2021 Notes Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT pg 11 ... non- 2011 ACS households cityHispanic, wide 78% White non-Hispanic, Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Notes Change 2019-2029 from OED forecast for Lane County _ 2019 1-year ACS... Occupied, 98% Renter Occupied 3% Owner Occupied, 97% Renter Occupied Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Notes Change White nonHispanic _ 2019 1-year ACS Owner occupied 2019 1-year... for inflation) 2019 1-year ACS (not adjusted for inflation) $84,543 Comprehensive Report 2021, IV and Appendix H - DRAFT Change pg Median Sales Price of Single-family Housing Adopted* Assumption