Climate Resilient Urban Development Case Study - New York City

Climate Resilient Urban Development Vulnerability Assessment of climate change in New York City General information 1.1 Current Scenario Global mean temperatures and sea levels have been increasing for the last century, accompanied by other changes in the earth’s climate As these trends continue, climate change is increasingly being recognized as a major global concern An international panel of leading climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide objective and up-to-date information regarding the changing climate In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the IPCC stated that there is a greater than 90% chance that warming temperatures since 1750 are primarily due to human activities As described by the IPCC and as had been predicted in the 19 th century, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities Atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO 2) are now more than one-third higher than in pre-industrial times Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane (CH4), ozone (O3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased as well Largely as a result of work done by the IPCC and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), efforts to mitigate the severity of climate change by limiting levels of greenhouse gas emissions are underway globally Because of greenhouse gas forcing mechanisms already in the climate and the long timeframe of some climate system processes, awareness is growing that some impacts from climate change are inevitable Responses to climate change have grown beyond a focus on mitigation to include adaptation measures in an effort to minimize the impacts of climate change already underway and to prepare for unavoidable future impacts To respond to climate changes in New York City and accomplish the goals outlined in PlaNYC, the City’s comprehensive sustainability plan, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, convened the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in August 2008 The NPCC, which consists of climate change and impacts scientists, and legal, insurance and risk management experts, was charged with serving as the technical advisory body for the Mayor and the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (the “Task Force”) on issues related to climate change, impacts and adaptation The climate hazards described should be monitored and assessed on a regular basis Indirect climate change impacts on infrastructure beyond the scope of this document, such as ecosystem changes and climate change in other regions, should also be taken into consideration Section of this document presents observed climate information for temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events in New York City Section presents scenario results for the region from GCM simulations of three greenhouse gas emissions pathways in a quantitative form where possible and qualitatively for climate variables characterized by higher uncertainty In Section 4, these data are combined with likelihoods and potential impacts on infrastructure Section outlines key indicators for monitoring and reassessment For planning purposes the NPCC focuses on the coming decades of the 21 st century Although projections for the XXII century are characterized by even larger uncertainties and are beyond most current infrastructure planning horizons, they are briefly discussed because climate change is a multicentury concern Much of the information in this packet is generally applicable to other developed coastal urban centers, although the projected likelihood, magnitude and nature of the climate hazards, as well as certain infrastructure consequences, will vary Nevertheless, the analytical framework applied here may guide other cities as they embark on climate change adaptation efforts This section of the document presents observed climate information for temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and extreme events in New York City New York City has a temperate, continental climate, with hot and humid summers and cold winters Records show an annual average air temperature from 1971-2000 of approximately 55 degrees Fahrenheit The annual mean temperature in New York City has risen 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900, although the trend has varied substantially For example, the first and last 30-year periods were characterized by warming, while the middle segment, from 1930 to the late 1970s, was not The temperature trends for the New York City region are broadly similar to trends for the Northeast United States Specifically, most of the Northeast has experienced a trend towards higher temperatures, especially in recent decades 1.2 Projected Scenario Projections for the 22nd century are beyond most current infrastructure planning horizons However, planning for some long-lived infrastructure, which hypothetically could include for example new aqueducts and subway lines, would justify consideration of climate in the 22 nd century Furthermore, many pieces of infrastructure intended only to have a useful lifespan within the 21 st century may remain operational beyond their planned lifetime It is also possible that future projects aimed specifically at climate change adaptation might benefit during their planning stages from long-term climate guidance Because 22nd century climate is characterized by very high uncertainty, only qualitative projections are possible, especially at a local scale Despite uncertainties, the large inertia of the climate system suggests that the current directional trends in two key climate variables, sea level rise and temperature, will probably continue into the 22nd century (Solomon et al, 2009) For some of the extreme event climate factors that have a large impact on infrastructure, future changes are too uncertain at local scales to allow quantitative projections Qualitative information for some of these factors is provided in Table 3, including: • • • • • Heat indices, which combine temperature and humidity Frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) Intense precipitation of short duration (less than one day) Lightning Large-scale storms (tropical storms/hurricanes and nor’easters) & associated extreme wind By the end of the century, heat indices are very likely to increase, both directly due to higher temperatures and because warmer air can hold more moisture The combination of high temperatures and high humidity can produce severe additive effects by restricting the human body’s ability to cool itself The National Weather Service heat index definition is based on the combination of these two climate factors Ice storms and freezing rain have disproportionate effects on infrastructure There is some indication that the frequency and intensity of ice storms and freezing rain may increase Snowfall is likely to become less frequent with the snow season decreasing in length Possible changes in the intensity of snowfall per storm are highly uncertain Intense hurricanes and associated extreme wind events will more likely than not become more frequent due to expected warming of the upper ocean in the tropical cyclone genesis regions (IPCC AR4) However, because changes in other critical factors for tropical cyclones, including wind shear, the vertical temperature gradient in the atmosphere, and patterns of variability including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Meridional Overturning Circulation are not well known, there is the possibility that intense hurricanes and their extreme winds will not become more frequent or intense It is also unknown whether the most probable tracks or trajectories of hurricanes and intense hurricanes may change in the future Downpours, defined as intense precipitation at sub-daily, but often sub-hourly, timescales are likely to increase in frequency and intensity, for the reasons outlined in the section above on extreme precipitation Changes in nor’easters and lightning are currently too uncertain to support even qualitative statements Introduction and relevant background Area: 1,214 km2 (468.9 sq mi) Population: 8,405,837 (2013) Annual population growth rate: 14% (2009 estimation) Density: 10,725.4/km2 (27,778.7/sq mi) Map of New York State, showing location of New York City 2.1 City Development Priorities 2.1.1 New York City comprehensive waterfront plan – vision 2020 The New York City Vision 2020 is focusing mainly on the development of the city’s waterfront Apart from the Citywide Strategies regarding mainly water quality / the waterfront / resilience, there are also smaller scale focal points, for which the “Neighbourhood Reach Strategies” are planned These neighbourhoods are Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island The Citywide Strategies are expressed in the following NYC goals for 2020: Goal 1: Expand public access Goal 2: Enliven the waterfront Goal 3: Support the working waterfront Goal 4: Improve water quality Goal 5: Restore the natural waterfront Goal 6: Enhance the Blue Network Goal 7: Improve government oversight Goal 8: Increase climate resilience 2.1.2 Foodworks: a vision to improve NYC’s food system A vision regarding agricultural production / processing / distribution / consumption / post-consumption Specific points which are included in the vision are the following: - Moving from food system insecurity to opportunity Seizing economic opportunity: supporting a diverse retail sector Supporting regional farmers Expanding food manufacturing Reducing energy usage and GHG emissions Protecting farmland 2.1.3 Vision zero action plan 2014 – street safety New York City has a recent vision, specifically for street safety, the reduction of accidents and the enforcement of relevant laws Starting by stating that “no level of fatality on city streets is inevitable or acceptable”, this vision is a strategy trying to tackle the problem from various perspectives from street design and transport regulations to legislation - Law enforcement Pedestrian fatalities Legislation Street design and regulation New York Vulnerability assessment 3.1 Introduction Risk assessment is the process of evaluating the vulnerability of people, buildings, and infrastructure to estimate the potential loss of life, personal injury, economic injury, and property damage resulting from natural hazards The Risk Assessment section answers the fundamental question that fuels the natural hazard mitigation planning process: What would happen if a natural hazard event occurred in New York City? a) Risk Assessment Approach • • • • • Determine which natural hazards pose a serious risk to New York City Describe what these hazards can to physical, social, and economic assets of New York City Identify which areas of New York City are most vulnerable to damage from these hazards Determine damages that may result from the identified natural hazards Use the Risk Assessment section to identify mitigation actions and set priorities for implementation b) FEMA Requirements Addressed in this Section The Office of Emergency Management (OEM) Hazard Mitigation Planning Team (Planning Team) used a risk assessment process consistent with the procedures and steps presented in the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) How-To-Guide “Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses.” The Planning Team used the four-step risk assessment process shown in Figure RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS STEP 1: IDENTIFY HAZARDS STEP 2: PROFILE HAZARD EVENTS STEP 3: INVENTORY ASSETS STEP 4: ESTIMATE LOSSES USE RISK ASSESSMENT OUTPUTS PREPARE A HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN Figure 1: Risk Assessment Process TO The following FEMA requirements are addressed in this section: ã Requirement Đ201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type… of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the … location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and the probability of future hazard events ã Requirement Đ201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the jurisdictions vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph §201.6(c)(2)(i) This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community [The risk assessment] must also address National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) insured structures that have been repetitively damaged by floods ã Requirement Đ201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of types and numbers of] existing and future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard area ã Requirement Đ201.6(c)(2)(ii)(B): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of types and numbers of an] estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in §201.6(c)(2)(ii)(A) of this description the methodology used to prepare the estimate ã Requirement Đ201.6(c)(2)(ii)(C): [The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of types and numbers of] providing a general description of land uses and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions 3.2 Hazard Identification The first step in the risk assessment process is to determine which hazards to include in the plan To initiate this process, the Planning Team, with input from the Mitigation Planning Council Steering Committee (Steering Committee), identified an initial list of hazards that might affect the City and then selected the priority hazards of concern for further profiling and analysis a) Hazards in New York State To begin the hazard identification process, the Planning Team took the full range of hazards identified in the New York State Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (NYS HMP) and made a few minor alterations, which included wording and organization, to produce a comprehensive natural hazard list Figure lists the full range of New York State hazards the Planning Team considered for inclusion in the New York City Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) Hazards in New York State Hazard Coastal Erosion Coastal Storms/Hurricanes Dam Failure Drought Earthquakes Description Loss or displacement of land along the coastline due to the action of wind, waves, currents, tides, wind-driven water, waterborne ice, runoff of surface waters, or groundwater seepage Tropical cyclones formed in the atmosphere over warm ocean areas Wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour or more and blow in a large spiral around a relatively calm center or "eye Circulation is counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere An uncontrolled release of impounded water resulting in downstream flooding A prolonged period with no rain Limited winter precipitation accompanied by moderately dry periods during the spring and summer months can also lead to drought conditions The sudden motion or trembling of the ground produced by abrupt displacement of rock masses, usually within the upper 10–20 miles of the earth’s surface Extreme Temperatures Floods Hailstorms Extreme Cold: temperatures that drop well below normal in an area Whenever temperatures drop well below normal and wind speed increases, heat can leave your body more rapidly (known as the wind-chill effect) Extreme Heat: temperatures that hover 10° F or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks Humid or muggy conditions, which add to the discomfort of high temperatures, occur when a "dome" of high atmospheric pressure traps hazy, damp air near the ground A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation on normally dry land Flooding can be categorized as coastal, riverine, or flash Shower-like precipitation in the form of irregular pellets, or balls of ice more than five millimeters in diameter, falling from a cumulonimbus cloud Hazards in New York State Hazard Description The downward and outward movement of slope-forming materials reacting to the force of gravity Slide materials may be composed of natural rock, soil, artificial fill, or Landslides combinations of these materials The term landslide includes rock falls, rockslides, block glide, debris slide, earth flow, mudflow, slump, and other such terms Depressions, cracks, and sinkholes in the earth's surface, which can threaten people and property Subsidence Subsidence depressions, which normally occur over many days to a few years, may damage structures with low strain tolerances such as dams, factories, nuclear reactors, and utility lines A local atmospheric storm, generally of short duration, formed by winds rotating at very high speeds, usually in a counterclockwise direction The vortex, up to several Tornadoes/Windstorms hundred yards wide, is visible to the observer as a whirlpool-like column of winds rotating about a hollow cavity or funnel Any instance of uncontrolled burning in grasslands, brush, Wildfires or woodlands Includes ice storms and blizzards Extreme cold often accompanies winter storms The National Weather Service Winter Storms (NWS) characterizes blizzards as being combinations of winds in excess of 35 mph with considerable falling or blowing snow, which frequently reduces visibility Figure 2: Natural Hazard Definitions b) Hazard Selection Process i) Existing Plans and Procedures When considering which natural hazards to include in the HMP, the Planning Team identified the City’s existing emergency plans and procedures that address natural hazards The New York City Office of Emergency Management (OEM) and other City agencies have plans and procedures in place for many natural hazards, including coastal storms, drought, extreme temperatures, floods, tornadoes/windstorms, and winter storms Therefore, it was evident these hazards significantly affect New York City and should be included in the HMP ii) Hazard Selection Worksheet The Steering Committee supported the hazard identification process by completing a hazard selection worksheet The hazard selection worksheet asked members of the Steering Committee to indicate which natural hazards would affect their agencies’ operations, policies, and/or physical infrastructure The worksheet also asked for an example or explanation for each hazard checked Table summarizes the results of the worksheets Hazard Coastal Erosion New York City Hazard Selection Worksheet Results Agency DCP DOB DEP Parks OLTPS DOT X X X X X X Coastal Storms/ X Hurricanes X Dam Failure X X X X X X X Earthquakes X X Extreme Temperatures X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Subsidence X X X X X X X X X X X X X Landslides Winter Storms X X Hailstorms Windstorms/ Tornadoes Wildfires OEM X X Drought Floods MTA X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Table 1: New York City Hazard Selection Worksheet Results A majority of Steering Committee members checked the following hazards: coastal erosion, coastal storms, drought, extreme temperatures, floods, tornadoes, and winter storms The other hazards listed required additional research to determine whether they should be in the Plan The Planning Team collected and analysed additional data on dam failure, hailstorms, landslides, subsidence, and wildfires from newspapers, City records, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NWS, and FEMA databases c) Eliminated Hazards After conducting additional research, the Planning Team eliminated dam failure, hailstorms, landslides, subsidence, and wildfires from the HMP Given the scope of this plan, the Planning Team chose to address only prevalent natural hazards for this submission The Planning Team concluded dam failure in New York City is a technological hazard and therefore outside this Plan’s scope Dam failure can occur as a secondary effect from a natural hazard and in that context, it is addressed in the Mitigation Strategy section Further research into landslides in New York City revealed this phenomenon is generally related to human activity and most often occurs as the result of a failed retaining structure Based on consultation with the New York State Geological Survey (NYSGS) and a review of the NYS HMP, the Planning Team determined subsidence is highly unlikely due to New York City’s hard soils Although hailstorms are possible in New York City, there is little risk to agriculture here, and City property damage from this particular hazard is minimal Finally, the City is too urbanized for large wildfires and while brushfires are possible in some areas, historic records and a review of OEM Watch Command notifications showed property damage from such fires is rare Consequently, because of their limited impacts, hailstorms and wildfires are not included in the final list of hazards d) Final List of New York City Hazards At the end of the hazard identification process, the Planning Team retained eight natural hazards for profiling and analysis in the HMP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Coastal Erosion Coastal Storms Drought Earthquakes Extreme Temperatures Flooding Windstorms and Tornadoes Winter Storms 3.3 New York City’s Hazard Environment With more than 8.2 million people, New York City is the most populous city in the United States and ranks among the largest urban areas in the world It is also one of the most densely populated cities in the United States with an area of just 305 square miles For more than a century, New York City has been a global center for commerce, finance, politics, foreign affairs, media, and the arts Many of the City’s neighbourhoods and landmarks are known around the world To accommodate its dense population and maintain its international prominence, New York City has developed a complex and interconnected network of transportation and infrastructure systems However, New York City’s defining characteristics – its dense population, international stature, and complex infrastructure – also increase the potential significance of hazards, making it more susceptible to their effects than many other cities a) The Natural Environment New York City’s geographic location, climate, and topography have influenced its growth and prominence in the United States However, the City’s natural features also increase its vulnerability to certain natural hazards Figure 70: HAZUS-MH Results for Economic Losses from a 100-Year Flood in Manhattan Figure 71: HAZUS-MH Results for Economic Losses from a 100-Year Flood in Queens Figure 72: HAZUS-MH Results for Economic Losses from a 100-Year Flood in Staten Island 12) Windstorms and Tornadoes Hazard Analysis for New York City a) Hazard Profile i) Hazard Description Windstorms are often associated with other storms, such as hurricanes or nor’easters, but may occur independently High winds can cause downed trees and power lines, flying debris, and building collapses, all of which may lead to power outages, transportation disruptions, damage to buildings and vehicles, and injury or death Flying debris is the primary cause of damage during a windstorm While a building may be generally structurally sound, broken glass from windows can cause injuries inside and outside the building and extensive damage to building content A tornado is a violent storm with winds up to 300 miles per hour It appears as a rotating funnel-shaped cloud, gray to black in color, extending toward the ground from the base of a thundercloud The average tornado moves southwest to northeast at a forward speed of 30 miles per hour, but tornadoes can move in any direction and may vary from stationary to 70 miles per hour Tornadoes are most frequent east of the Rocky Mountains during spring and summer months between the hours of PM and PM Tornadoes may also accompany hurricanes Tornadoes can uproot trees and buildings and turn harmless objects into deadly missiles in a matter of seconds Tornadoes are especially dangerous because they appear transparent until they begin to pick up debris and dust These shortlived storms are the most violent of all atmospheric phenomena and, over a small area, are the most destructive Approximately 800 tornadoes occur across the nation each year, resulting in nearly 80 deaths and 1,500 injuries Damage paths can exceed one mile wide and 50 miles long ii) Severity The Beaufort Wind Scale is a simplified scale to aid in the estimation of wind speed and corresponding typical effects Beaufort Wind Scale Wind Speed Name (mph) Damage 25–31 Strong Breeze Large branches in motion; whistling in telephone wires; umbrellas used with difficulty 32–38 Near Gale Whole trees in motion; resistance felt while walking against the wind 39–46 Gale Twigs break off of trees; wind impedes walking 47–54 Strong Gale Slight structural damage to chimneys and slate roofs 55–63 Storm Seldom felt inland; trees uprooted; considerable structural damage Beaufort Wind Scale Wind Speed Name (mph) Damage 64–72 Very rarely experienced; widespread structural damage; roofing peels off buildings; windows broken; mobile homes overturned Violent Storm 73+ Widespread structural damage; roofs torn off homes; weak buildings and mobile homes destroyed; large trees uprooted Hurricane Table 41: Beaufort Wind Scale The Fujita Scale (F-Scale) is the standard measurement for rating the strength of a tornado The NWS bases this scale on an analysis of damage after a tornado to infer wind speeds On February 1, 2007, the NWS transitioned from the F-Scale to the Enhanced Fujita Scale (EF-Scale) The EF-Scale is considerably more complex and enables surveyors to assess tornado severity with greater precision Table 42 details both scales F-SCALE and EF-SCALE F-Scale F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 3-sec gust 3-sec gust EF-Scale TYPICAL DAMAGE speed (mph) speed (mph) Light damage Some damage to chimneys 45–78 EF0 65–85 Branches broken off trees Shallow-rooted trees pushed over; signboards damaged Moderate damage Peels surface off roofs 79–117 EF1 86–109 Mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned Moving autos blown off roads Considerable damage Roofs torn off frame houses Mobile homes demolished Boxcars 118–161 EF2 110–137 overturned Large trees snapped or uprooted Light-object missiles generated Cars lifted off ground 162–209 210–261 262–317 EF3 EF4 EF5 138–167 Severe damage Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses Trains overturned Most trees in forest uprooted Heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown 168–199 Devastating damage Well-constructed houses leveled Structures with weak foundations blown away some distance Cars thrown and large missiles generated 200–234 Incredible damage Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away Automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters (109 yards) Trees debarked Incredible phenomena will occur Table 42: Fujita and Enhanced Fujita Scale iii) Probability Windstorms are a common occurrence in New York City, making them a highly probable hazard Based on the historic occurrences, New York City experiences a high-wind event at least once a year Though infrequent, tornadoes in New York City are not unprecedented Over the past 22 years, six tornadoes have hit New York City, five of which were scaled F0 or F1 Based on historic frequency, an estimated 27 tornadoes will hit the City every 100 years iv) Location Windstorms occur in all five boroughs of New York City Figure 73 and Figure 74 display wind zones throughout the United States and New York State These wind zones portray the frequency and strength of extreme windstorms Figure 73: Wind Zones in the United States (Source: FEMA, 2008) Figure 74: Wind Zones in NY State (Source: FEMA, 2008) Of the six tornadoes that have affected the City, three were in Staten Island, while Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens each experienced one However, scientists caution that though rare, a tornado is possible anywhere in the City v) Historic Occurrences Historic Occurrences of Windstorms and Tornadoes in New York City Date Event Location(s) Description Oct 5, 1985 Tornado Queens • • • Aug 10, 1990 Tornado Staten Island • • • F0 tornado Ran for miles; width of 17 yards No fatalities; injuries Mar 2, 1994 High Wind Citywide Aug 31, 1995 Tornado Manhattan • • • • • High winds of 53 knots F1 tornado Ran for miles; width of 10 yards No fatalities; injury Property damages totaled $30,000 F1 tornado Ran for miles; width of 50 yards No fatalities; injuries Historic Occurrences of Windstorms and Tornadoes in New York City Date Event Location(s) Oct 28, 1995 Tornado Staten Island Feb 25, 1996 High Wind Citywide Mar 19, 1996 High Wind Citywide Oct 19, 1996 High Wind Citywide Nov 2, 1997 Wind Citywide Nov 27, 1997 Wind Manhattan Feb 4, 1998 High Wind Manhattan Mar 18, 1999 Wind Manhattan Dec 12, 2000 High Wind Citywide Description • • • • • F1 tornado No fatalities or injuries Estimated damage $500,000 Intensity unknown fatality in Brooklyn due to a fallen tree • reported injury • High winds of 69 knots • No fatalities or injuries • High winds of 80 knots • Fallen trees caused fatalities; no additional injuries • Power lines and downed trees closed Bayonne Bridge • Reported roof ripped off a Bronx building • Reported wind gusts 35-40 knots • fatality; injury • Winds averaged 25 to 35 mph; gusts around 50 mph • Balloon handlers lost control of Cat in the Hat balloon at Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade; caused top of light pole to fall on spectators • serious and less-serious injuries • High winds of 50 knots • No fatalities; injury reported • High winds 40-47 mph • 15-foot metal rod to tumbled 22 stories from top of Times Square; injured women • High winds 56 knots • Nor’easter • fatality; injuries • Sept 11, 2002 High Wind Citywide Sept 19, 2003 Strong Wind Bronx • • • • • • • • Strongest winds measured 66 mph in Queens Winds lasted at least hours fatality; injuries Widespread power outages Construction debris caused injuries Strong winds up to 40 knots Hurricane Isabel No fatalities; injury Downed trees and power lines • • Oct 15, 2003 High Wind Queens • Oct 27, 2003 Tornado Staten Island Nov 13, 2003 High Wind Citywide Dec 1, 2004 High Wind Brooklyn Dec 23, 2004 Strong Wind Queens Mar 8, 2005 High Wind Queens Apr 2, 2005 High Wind Queens Oct 16, 2005 Strong Wind Citywide • • High winds of 39 knots No fatalities or injuries reported Downed trees and power lines reported Property damage estimated at a least $100,000 F0 tornado No fatalities or injuries • Oct 25, 2005 Nov 24, 2005 Jan 15, 2006 High Wind Strong Wind High Wind Jan 18, 2006 High Wind Feb 17, 2006 High Wind Oct 20, 2006 High Wind Citywide High winds of 56 knots • fatality; no injuries reported • High winds of 61 knots • No fatalities or injuries reported • High winds of 47 mph • fatality caused by tree crushing traveling car; no injuries • High winds of 50 knots • No fatalities; no injuries reported • • • • • • • High winds of 50 knots No fatalities and no injuries reported High winds of 31 knots No fatalities or injuries reported Trees downed Windows in a high-rise office building in Manhattan blew out $17,000 in property damage reported • • • • High winds of 42 knots No fatalities or injuries reported Downed trees City reported Property damaged reported $35,000 • • • • • High winds of 35 knots No fatalities and injuries resulting from a Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade balloon hitting a lamppost and causing a 30-pound light to fall into the crowd No cost in damages reported High winds of 55 knots No fatalities and injury reported • • High winds of 59 knots No fatalities or injuries reported • • High winds of 53 knots No fatalities or injuries reported • • High winds of 50 knots No fatalities or injuries reported Citywide Queens Bronx, Manhattan, Staten Island, Queens Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island Staten Island Historic Occurrences of Windstorms and Tornadoes in New York City Date Event Location(s) Description • • High winds of 41 knots Flying construction resulted in no fatalities and injury from debris • EF2 tornado • Discontinuous path • 16 homes had moderate to severe roof damage • Tornado tore the roof off a car dealership • Downed trees reported Aug 8, 2007 Tornado Brooklyn • Event accompanied by severe flooding • Federally declared disaster with more than $7.2 million given in IHP funding from FEMA • More than 3,700 residents filed claims at Disaster Assistance Service Centers Table 43: Historic Occurrences of Windstorms and Tornadoes in New York City Jan 20, 2007 Strong Wind Citywide b) Vulnerability Assessment i) Impact to New York City High-wind events can pose a serious threat to people and infrastructure New York City’s dense urban environment provides numerous objects that can become flying debris and severely injure people and damage structures Areas with tall buildings such as Midtown Manhattan, the Financial District, and Downtown Brooklyn are at a greater risk because of increased wind pressures at greater heights While these structures can withstand strong winds, glass windows pose a fatal threat if broken Construction sites are also especially vulnerable to high winds Loose tools and construction materials, cranes, scaffolding, and other building appurtenances may become loose from exposure to high winds ii) Structural Vulnerability Structural vulnerability to wind is related to the building’s construction type Wood structures and manufactured homes are more susceptible to wind damage, while steel and concrete buildings are more resistant Less than 0.1% of the City’s buildings are manufactured housing and 54% are wooden structures Staten Island has the highest percentage of structure vulnerable to windstorms and tornadoes with 93% of the borough’s structures made of wood The New York City Construction Code addresses high winds in a dense, high-rise environment The Construction Code establishes wind-exposure categories to set design requirements for new buildings These requirements account for location, surroundings, and occupancy to ensure buildings can withstand extreme wind For example, buildings along the coastline are subject to higher wind loads, as are buildings more than 300 feet iii) Potential Loss Estimate It is difficult to estimate potential losses to specific structures because wind is a citywide hazard More information regarding New York City’s physical and structural vulnerability is located in section on page 12 Conclusions and recommendations Climate change poses a range of hazards to New York City and its infrastructure These changes suggest a need for the City to rethink the way it operates and adapts to its evolving environment To respond to these changes and accomplish the goals outlined in PlaNYC, the City’s comprehensive sustainability plan, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, convened the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in August 2008 The NPCC, which consists of leading climate change and impact scientists, academics, and private sector practitioners, was charged with advising the Mayor and the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force (the “Task Force”) on issues related to climate change and adaptation as it relates to infrastructure This document, one of three in a series of workbooks to be produced for the Task Force, provides climate change projections for New York City and identifies some of the potential risks to the City’s critical infrastructure posed by climate change Warmer temperatures are extremely likely in New York City and the surrounding region Mean annual temperatures are projected by global climate models (GCMs) to increase by: • • • 1.5 – oF by the 2020s – oF by the 2050s – 7.5 oF by the 2080s There is universal agreement among the GCMs that temperatures will increase over the next century Total annual precipitation in New York City and the surrounding region will more likely than not increase Mean annual precipitation increases projected by GCMs are: • • • – 5% by the 2020s – 10% by the 2050s – 10% by the 2080s The GCMs are in less agreement about the direction of precipitation change, and precipitation is characterized by large inter-annual variability, making these projections more uncertain than those for temperature Rising sea levels are extremely likely GCM-based projections for mean annual sea level rise in New York City are: • • • – inches by the 2020s – 12 inches by the 2050s 12 – 23 inches by the 2080s Because GCMs not capture all of the processes which may contribute to sea level rise, an alternative method that incorporates observed and longer-term historical ice-melt rates is also included This “rapid icemelt” approach suggests sea level could rise by approximately 41 to 55 inches by the 2080s Short-duration climate hazards can pose particular threats to infrastructure Among these extreme events: • • • • Heat waves are very likely to become more frequent, intense, and longer in duration Brief, intense precipitation events that can cause inland flooding are also likely to increase Storm-related coastal flooding due to sea level rise is very likely to increase It is more likely than not that droughts will become more severe Infrastructure Impacts may include: These climate changes will have consequences for New York City’s critical infrastructure Temperature-related impacts may include: • • Increased summertime strain on materials Increased peak electricity loads in summer & reduced heating requirements in winter Precipitation-related impacts may include: • • Increased street, basement & sewer fl ooding Reduction of water quality Sea level rise-related impacts may include: • • Inundation of low-lying areas & wetlands Increased structural damage & impaired operations Indicators & Monitoring may include: Climate change, impacts and adaptation strategies should be regularly monitored and reassessed as part of any climate change adaptation strategy Climate indicators to monitor include: • • • • Earth’s carbon cycle Sea level Changes in polar ice Advances in climate science Infrastructure impacts to be monitored: • • • • Combined-sewer overfl ow events (CSO) Flooding & associated damages Climate-related power outages Indirect impacts, including ecosystem changes & effects of changes in other regions In addition to tracking climate and impacts science, advances in technology, materials science, and adaptation strategies should also be monitored Adaptation plans should be assessed both to determine whether they are meeting their intended objectives and to discern any unforeseen consequences For example, by monitoring trends in population, the economy, policy, operations, management and material costs, future adaptation strategies can be iteratively tailored to ensure they remain consistent with broader citywide objectives References New York City Panel on Climate Change (2009) Climate risk information Available at: http://bblp.eur.nl/bbcswebdav/pid-451445-dt-content-rid-3206026_1/courses/IHS-SC-SUSTAIN1/Vulnerability %20Assessment%20-%20New%20York%20City%2C%20USA.pdf ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) is an international centre of excellence of the School of Economics (ESE) and the Faculty of Social Sciences (FSS) of the Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands, operating on a global scale by offering postgraduate education, training, advisory services and applied research Today more people live in cities than ever before Our urban future confronts us with great innovations and challenges Cities need urban professionals who can understand, face and manage these developments to create urban futures that improve the quality of life in cities IHS trains and advises these professionals on a global scale through its integrated approach in education, advisory services and research that offers practise and theory on urban management and development Learn more about IHS: http://www.ihs.nl/ ABOUT SUSTAIN PROJECT The SUSTAIN project aims to improve the quality of tertiary education in Sustainable Urban Development in Europe and partner universities in Asia; develop standardized education modules related to SUD and furthermore enriching them with international perspectives and academic and vocational skills and competencies; promote collaboration and international cooperation between European and Asian Higher Education Institutions in SUD but also collaboration and sharing between Erasmus Mundus programmes; establish links and bridge European Higher Education and practice in SUD; increase the visibility and access to European Higher Education in Asia in the field of SUD, attracting prospective Asian and international students The SUSTAIN project is co-ordinated by the Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) with the Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, the Netherlands, the Rotterdam School of Management, the Netherlands, Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany; National Technical University of Athens, Greece; European Academy of Bolzano, Italy; Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Italy; Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia; Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology, India; Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, China; and International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, Germany www.sustainedu.com ... (27,778.7/sq mi) Map of New York State, showing location of New York City 2.1 City Development Priorities 2.1.1 New York City comprehensive waterfront plan – vision 2020 The New York City Vision 2020... in New York City Figure 18: New York City Road Transportation 31 iii) Air and Water Transportation Ferry landings, piers, and airports are located throughout the New York City region New York City. .. wastewater New York City produces Figure 25: New York City Wastewater Treatment Facilities 42 xi) New York City? ??s Building Stock In 2006, there were 801,815 buildings in New York City Queens