Handbook of Risk Theory Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin, Martin Peterson (Eds.) Handbook of Risk Theory Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk With 85 Figures and 62 Tables Editors Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief) Philosophy Department Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands and Philosophy Department University of Twente Enschede The Netherlands Rafaela Hillerbrand Human Technology Center RWTH Aachen University Aachen Germany Per Sandin Department of Plant Physiology and Forest Genetics Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala Sweden Martin Peterson Section for Philosophy and Ethics Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven The Netherlands ISBN 978-94-007-1432-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-1433-5 Print and electronic bundle under ISBN 978-94-007-1434-2 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2011941145 © Springer ScienceþBusiness Media B.V. 2012 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer ScienceþBusiness Media (www.springer.com) Preface Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine, and economics, and it is also studied by social scientists, psychologists, and legal scholars. But the topic of risk also leads to more fundamental questions such as: What is risk? What can decision theory contribute to the analysis of risk? What does the human perception of risk mean for society? How should we judge whether a risk is morally acceptable or not? Over the last couple of decades, questions like these have attracted interest from philosophers and other scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, from decision theory, risk perception, to ethics and social implications of risk, and it also addresses specific case studies. It aims to promote communi- cation and information among all those who are interested in theoretical issues concerning risk and uncertainty. This handbook brings together leading philosophers and scholars from other disciplines who work on risk theory. The contributions are accessibly written and highly relevant to issues that are studied by risk scholars. We hope that the Handbook of Risk Theory will be a helpful starting point for all risk scholars who are interested in broadening and deepening their current perspectives. The editors: Sabine Roeser (Editor-in-Chief), Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin, and Martin Peterson [...]... on decision theory, Stefan T Trautmann and Ferdinand M Vieider discuss the links between decision theory and two of the key disciplines on which much work in decision theory draws, namely, economic theory and psychology Trautmann and Vieider identify and discuss four distinct types of social influences on economic decisions under risk: (1) observations of other agents’ outcomes; (2) observations of. .. decision theory Karsten Klint Jensen: A Philosophical Assessment of Decision Theory Karsten Klint Jensen starts his chapter with drawing a distinction between classical decision theory and modern axiomatic decision theory He then goes on to give an overview of Savage’s axiomatization of the principle of maximizing expected utility This all leads up to a discussion of what sort of problem decision theory. .. links between risk theory and decision theory Very briefly put, decision theory is the theory of rational decision making A key assumption accepted by nearly all decision theorists is that it is essential to distinguish between Introduction to Risk Theory 1 descriptive claims about how people actually make risky decisions, and normative claims about how it would be rational to take such decisions In... car safety John R Welch: Real-Life Decisions and Decision Theory John R Welch discusses another important area of decision theory, concerning the question of how we can apply decision theory to real-life decisions As everyone who reads the other chapters on decision theory will quickly discover, decision theorists make many quite unrealistic idealizations about the decision problems they are discussing,... philosophy The topic of risk gives rise to concrete problems that require empirical investigations, but these empirical investigations need to be structured by theoretical frameworks This handbook offers an overview of different approaches to risk theory, ranging from general issues in risk theory to risk in practice, from mathematical approaches in decision theory to empirical research of risk perception,... of the decision maker’s outcomes by other agents; (3) direct effects of the decision maker’s choices on other agents’ outcomes; and (4) direct dependencies of the decision maker’s outcomes on other agents’ choices Part 4: Risk Perception Where the previous section discussed normative or rational decision theory, the present section discusses risk from the point of view of empirical decision theory, ... developed ´ by Friedman and Savage, Arrow, and Pratt Eeckhoudt and Louberge introduce the concept of general equilibrium and discuss issues of risk distribution among individuals The authors end their discussion with brief illustrations of applications of the theory from the fields of finance and insurance Reinoud D Stoel and Marjan Sjerps: Interpretation of Forensic Evidence Reinoud D Stoel and Marjan Sjerps... assessment, while the social sciences focus on vulnerability reduction and risk communication The contribution of Amy Donovan fills this gap Donovan examines the social context both of the scientific research of the natural hazards, and of the hazards themselves, proposing a holistic and context-based approach to understanding risk In the context of seismic risk, the uncertainty of the scientific methods... involved in mitigating these risks and the need to involve populations in the preparation, leads to a snowballing of uncertainty and indeterminacy from the scientific domain through the policy domain and into the wider public Part 3: Decision Theory and Risk As illustrated by the interdisciplinary nature of the contributions to this handbook, risk theory is a very broad field of research Eight chapters... levels of uncertainty can be distinguished? Part one of this handbook discusses these general issues in risk theory Sven Ove Hansson: A Panorama of the Philosophy of Risk Sven Ove Hansson’s chapter provides for an overview of the contributions that different philosophical subdisciplines and risk theory can provide for each other He starts out with discussing the potential contributions of philosophy to risk . Handbook of Risk Theory Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin, Martin Peterson (Eds.) Handbook of Risk Theory Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics,. scholars into risk theory. This handbook provides an overview into key topics in a major new field of research. It addresses a wide range of topics, from decision theory,