appendix - notes on emergency management problems and issues

10/19/22 Appendix: Blanchard’s Baker’s Dozen Emergency Management Problems and Issues Points (Background points for presentation at June 2001 FEMA Emergency Management Higher Education Conference, Emmitsburg, MD) Last Modification: 19 July 2005 Slide Blanchard's Baker's Dozen 13 Points: Disaster Losses Are Enormous The U.S Is Becoming More Vulnerable Disaster Losses Are Going Up Projected To Get Even Worse Disasters Impact Differentially Past and Current Practices Are Not Effective Enough Disasters Don’t Kill People – People Kill People Disasters Stem From Failure To Manage Risk Failure Is Primarily Governmental 10 This Is Primarily a Political Problem 11 We Must Create A Culture of Disaster Prevention 12 Emergency Management Needs to Continue to Evolve 13 Education Is Key 10/19/22 Blanchard's Baker’s Dozen Expanded Outline Disaster Losses Are Enormous A B C D E F National Economic Losses Are Large National Life Loss Estimates Annual Average Economic Losses Per Hazard Are Large Federal Costs Are Large FEMA Costs, Though A Small Part, Are Large Insured Losses, Though A Small Part, Are Large The U.S Is Becoming More Vulnerable and Unsafe A Indicators of Increased Vulnerability B Though There Are Hotspots, This Is A National Phenomenon C Increase In Vulnerability Primarily By Social Factors Not Natural Ones Disaster Losses Are Going Up A Going Up In The U.S.A B Going Up World-Wide Projected to Get Even Worse A Larger Individual Losses B Larger Total Losses Disasters Have Unequal Impact A Some are more vulnerable, more at risk, less resilient (the poor, marginalized, elderly and frail, very young, etc.) B Vulnerability is Socially Constructed Past & Current Practices Are Not Effective Enough A Are Disasters Outpacing Our Ability To Cope? Increasing Frequency and Magnitude? Climate Change? B But perhaps there isn't much that we can we don't know enough Multiple sources posit that we know what to C Or that its too expensive? Not true – mitigation not only pays for itself, but pays dividends Examples of mitigation working More affordable than the alternatives D If Not, Then What? 10/19/22 Disasters Don’t Kill People – People Kill People A B C D E F G An important reason is that people and governments not the right things Hurricane Mitch, Central America, 1998 Turkey Earthquake, 1999 El Salvador Earthquake 2001 India Earthquake 2001 USA flooding examples If Only We Applied Lessons Learned General Earthquakes Flooding Hurricanes Tornadoes and Thunderstorms Wildfires Disasters Stem From Failure To Manage Risk A B C D E Risk triangle model (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) Emphasis in past has been on the hazard leg IDNDR started with emphasis on risk assessment and management Federal government has still not conducted a national risk assessment Most State and Local Governments Have Not Performed a Risk Assessment Failure Is Primarily Governmental A Public Safety is a governmental responsibility B Land-use regs., building codes, professional planing, etc are gov responsibilities C Irresponsible to allow development, certainly unsafe development in hazard areas D Emergency managers/hazards community need to press harder E Need responsible rather than responsive government F Needs press and media attention 10 Primarily a Political Problem A While there are many players, the key is top political commitment B Reasons for Inaction It Can't Happen Here C “ Higher Priorities D “ Desire For Development and Tax Revenues E “ Opposition Prevails F “ Weak Grassroots Support/Advocacy G “ Weak Corporate/B&I Support Advocacy H “ Emer.Mgmt./Hazards Community Not Getting Through I “ Insufficient State and Federal Carrots, Sticks & Examples J Why Did It Happen Here? 10/19/22 11 We Must Create A Culture of Disaster Prevention A We Need a Paradigm Shift B The Time Is Now C Own Up To Responsibilities D From Disaster Response to Disaster Prevention E Focus on Sustainable Development F Mainstream prevention, mitigation, sustainable development and “BDRC” H Importance of the Media I Good Examples J The Wave of The Future 12 Emergency Management Needs to Continue to Evolve A B C D E F G H I J 13 Fundamental Shifts Are Necessary Accept Responsibility Build on foundation of risk assessment, mapping and management From Response/Reactive to Preventive/Proactive "Do-It-Alone" Mentality to Partnering, Coordinating, Networking, & Cooperating Skills to Articulate and Document Persuasive Case to Top Decision-Makers Mainstream (integrate) Emergency Management Within Local Government Emergency Managers Of Future Need To Be Catalysts For Change Must Assess and Evaluate Programs, Policies and Approaches Qualified Personnel Need to Inhabit the Positions Education is Key A Role of Colleges and Universities B Generate Knowledge C Transfer Knowledge Emergency Management Other Professions and Disciplines, and The Public D Foster Change 10/19/22 POINT DISASTER LOSSES ARE ENORMOUS 1A National Economic Losses Are Large (Slide 3) Slide The U.S experienced $500 billion in disaster losses during the last decade total losses, not just Presidential Declaration losses (Mileti 2001 Author of Disasters By Design) [Avg = $50B An.] “In recent years, U.S losses due to natural disasters have averaged approximately $50 billion/year.” (Darlington and Simpson 2001, 43) That’s about $1 billion per week This is a conservative estimate: According to Raymond Burby, “if crops are included and losses standardized to 1994 dollars, the figure jumps to $1 trillion.” (Burby 2001, 3) 10/19/22 1B National Life Loss Estimates: Averaged annual loss of life due to natural hazards is approximately 1,500 (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080, drawing from www.dir.ucar.edu/esig/socasp/weather1) Avalanches Cold, Extreme Earthquakes 22 770 25 10 (1985-2004) (CAIC) (1968-85) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1995-2004 (10 year average), NWS 2005, 14 (Stein 2004, 555) Floods 96 107 (1986-95) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1975-2004 (30 year average), NWS 2005, 14 Heat, Extreme 384 235 (1979-92) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1995-2004 (10 year average), NWS 2005, 14 Hurricanes 20 15 (1986-95) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1995-2004 (30 year average), NWS 2005, 14 Landslides 25 25-50 Lightning 175 66 Tallent 2004) National Research Council 2004 (1940-81) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1975-2004 (30 year average), NWS 2005, 14 Pipeline Breaks 23 (1986-99 – Sauter & Carafano 2005, 158) Tornadoes 44 65 (1985-95) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1975-2004 (30 year average), NWS 2005, 14 Winter Storms 47 44 (1988-95) (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) 1995-2004 (10 year average), NWS 2005, 14 10/19/22 1C Annual Losses Per Hazard Are Large: Cold: million in 2004 (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml#) Drought: 1.2 million in 2004 (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml#) Earthquakes: Annualized US earthquake losses average $4.4 billion (FEMA 2001b, 1) Eco-Terrorism: ~ $25 million (Sauter and Carafano 2005, 128) Fire (Structural) losses annually average about $10 billion (FEMA/USFA 1998, 2) Flooding: About $9 Billion Annual US flood losses about $6 billion (Congressional Natural Hazards Caucus 2001 (Jan 22), 3)1 up from average of $5.2 billion 1989 to 1998 (FEMA 2001, 1, citing NWS) From FY 1992-FY 1999, 20 major flooding disasters caused over $97 billion in damages.” (GAO 2001, 1; cited FEMA) averages $12 B per year, year period Fog: $1.6 million in 2004 (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml#) Hail: Annual mean current U.S losses due to Hail $2.3 billion (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) Hurricanes: Annual US Hurricane losses averaged $5.4 billion between 1989 and 1998 (FEMA 2001b, 1; citing The National Climatic Data Center) Landslides: $1-2 billion in damages…on average each year (Congressional Natural Hazards Caucus Workgroup 2001 (Jan 22), 3) $1-3 billion annually (National Research Council 2004.) Lightning: Annual mean current (1941-81) U.S losses – greater than $1 billion (Kunkel, et al 1999, 1080) $4-$5 billion.” (National Lightning Safety Institute 2004) Pipeline Breaches: “…from 1986 to 1999 releases from pipelines caused, on average 23 fatalities, 113 injuries, and $68 million in damage per year.” (Sauter & Carafano 2005, 158) Tornadoes: Annual mean current (1991-1994) losses $2.9 billion (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) Wildfires: The U.S government spends annually between “at least $1.5 billion” and $2 billion on fighting wildfires This is not wildfire damage, but suppression cost Wind: $3.65 billion in 2004 (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml#) Winter Storms: Annual mean current U.S losses greater than $1 B (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) $5.9 billion annually according to FEMA (Diane Mastrull, “Danger An Issue, US Set To Remap Flood-Prone Areas,” Philadelphia Inquirer, January 12, 2003) Brock N Meeks “Fight Against Wildfires Chronically Underfunded.” MSNBC.com, June 16, 2004 10/19/22 The above totals about $47.6 billion per year and does not include heat waves, hazardous materials accidents and releases, train derailments, air crashes, or wildfire damages) Examples: Hail: “Hail as large as three inches in diameter pummeled the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, area as a series of severe windstorms produced tornadoes and thunderstorms across 10 states in April 2003….The storms caused estimated total insured losses of more than $1 billion.” (IBHS 2003 Annual Report) Wildfire: In October and early November 2003, in San Diego and San Bernardino Counties, California, alone, wildfires resulted “in more than $2 billion in insured property losses.” (IBHS 2003 Annual Report – “Making a Difference, Coast to Coast”) Winter Storms: “Unusually severe winter weather struck portions of 15 states in 2003, causing more than $1 billion in insured property damage.” (IBHS 2003 Annual Report) Tornadoes: “In May 2003, more than 400 tornadoes ripped through 18 states and left a bill of $1.55 billion in insured property losses.” (IBHS 2003 Annual Report) According to the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in cooperation with the Atmospheric Policy Program of the American Meteorological Society, in their 2001 "Extreme Weather Sourcebook" an encyclopedic compilation of statistics regarding "Economic and Other Societal Impacts Related to Hurricanes, Floods, Tornadoes, Lightning, and Other U.S Weather Phenomena," Florida easily led all other states with annual losses of $1.67 billion between 1955 and 1999 Annual national losses were $11.4 billion (in 1999 dollars) (National Center for Atmospheric Research 2001) The statistics above are, according to FEMA, “extremely conservative” and “not cover damage and losses to critical facilities, transportation and utility lifelines or indirect economic loss.” (FEMA 2001, 1) 1D Federal Costs Are Large 10/19/22 "Federal disaster assistance costs billions of dollars annually According to data compiled for the Senate Task Force, federal agencies obligated about $119.7 billion (in constant 1993 dollars) for disaster assistance during fiscal years 1977 through 1993, the majority of which was for post-disaster assistance FEMA accounted for about 22 percent of this amount." (GAO 1998, 1) 1E FEMA Costs Are Large (But Just The Tip of The Iceberg): “The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has spent more than $25 billion in repairs and rebuilding over the past ten years.” (Taylor 2001, 84) "$24 billion FEMA dollars paid out in declared disasters over the past decade." (FEMA 365 Nov 2000 P 5-12) "Since 1993, FEMA has spent more than $20 billion in over 5000 counties on disaster recovery Growing costs are due in large part to the fact that more development stands in harm's way than ever before." (FEMA 2000, 7) Does not reflect the rest of the Federal government, State and local governments, insurance industry, business and industries, individuals 10/19/22 10 1F Insured Losses Are Large and Most Losses Are Not Insured: Writing in 1999, Harvey Ryland, President of the Institute for Business and Home Safety, notes that despite the IDNDR and its focus on prevention and mitigation, that "…losses continue to rise Since 1989, the United States alone has suffered at least US$ 90 billion in insured damage (not including disaster payments from governments or the costs property owners must absorb themselves, and has seen more than 23,000 people injured and at least 2,000 more killed….Obviously, we still have a long way to go." (Ryland 1999, 260) “Insurance data…also provide a measure of national economic losses The normalized…data show a trend of increasing losses Prior to the late 1970s annual losses were on the order of a few hundred million dollars (U.S Congress 1995) During the 1980s, losses had increased to the $0.5-$2.5 billion range Then, in 1989, losses increased dramatically Annual insured losses from 1989-97 were as follows: $7.4, $2.5, $3.0, $21.9, $4.4, $4.5, $8.2, $7.4, and $3.1 billion… There has been a clear change in impacts on the insurance industry.” (Kunkel et al 1999, 1080) "$9.3 billion Flood Insurance claims paid out since 1969." (FEMA 365, Nov 2000, pp 5-12) 1G Additional Material: The U.S has averaged losses of $500 million a week due to disasters the last ten years (Witt, 2001) [Witt’s estimate would total to $25 billion per year, or $250B for the decade.] “Over the past 20 years, the US has sustained 44 weather-related disasters in which damages and costs exceeded $1 billion each.” (Armstrong 2000, 53) 10/19/22 61 Typical research function: Hazards and Disaster Technology Risk Assessment Risk Management Cost-Effective Mitigation Measures Communication of Hazard Risk 13C Higher Education Function of Knowledge Transfer Slide 36 Academia may be viewed as neutral or impartial and thus community members may be willing to listen and trust "A preparedness strategy involving government, academic, professional and technical institutions, the private sector, and individual citizens, should be developed with the initiatives of: hazard identification and risk assessment; applied research and technology transfer; public awareness, training, and education; incentives and resources; and leadership and co-ordination to further the goal of reducing risk to life and property from natural hazard events Reliable and accessible scientific information about disaster risks is critical to making sound decisions on appropriate mitigation and response strategies As such, the primary challenge for the academic and technical institutions is to expand the risk assessment efforts and to communicate the information of disaster risk and mitigation to diverse stakeholders in an easily understandable format." (Erdik 1999, 234) "One of the key results of the IDNDR has been the willingness of member countries and other participants to build a 'culture of prevention' Universities can and should spread this culture to young generations, policy and decision-makers and to the community at large." (Erdik 1999, 235) These requirements can only be met through an educational effort that will provide the knowledge and tools so that all concerned practice hazard mitigation on a regular basis Education of everyone involved, from children to adults, professionals in many fields to elected officials, from bureaucrats to the citizen-at-large, becomes an essential component of mitigation.” (Ricardo Alvarez, Florida International University “Tropical Cyclone,” pp 34-36 in Ingleton 1999, 36) "While …public education campaigns of the past have had some success in persuading people to check their radio batteries and remove their hanging baskets when faced with a cyclone, they are unlikely to bring about the kinds of people needed to create the safe society envisioned by [Dr Frank] Press3 It has become obvious that this fundamental aim of the Decade will only be achieved if the hazard management community and the President of the US National Academy of Sciences 10/19/22 62 educational community work together to promote an appropriate environmental ethic in our young people." (Lidstone 1999, 236) "Community understanding and commitment have been demonstrated to help create and reinforce political will and commitment to take action at the local government level Elected leaders respond to the desires and demands of their constituents When disaster reduction becomes a public value, government commitment comes more easily It is frequently stated that government commitment is the key to getting risk reduction implemented." (Mattingly 1999, 136) “In order to consolidate the accomplishments of the IDNDR, there are lasting principles which can guide collective efforts into a ‘Safer World in the 21st Century’ They include the following: Recognition among policy and decision makers that disaster reduction is feasible, viable, and makes sense – in terms of policy, practice and investment The identification of disaster reduction with sustainable and long-term national or organizational development plans and accomplishments The recognition that effective disaster reduction involves the application of a full range of professional disciplines, which extend from the scientific to the social and from the academic to the practical Advanced technical and scientific research is desirable, but more basic public understanding of hazards and a shared responsibility to prevent disasters from occurring, are fundamental considerations Structured information exchange [education] and the formation of effective organizational relationships that extend knowledge and transfer practical experience are essential for institutionalizing a ‘culture of prevention’.” (Jeggle 1999, 27) 13D Create Partnerships Slide 37 “Networking: • Communicate regularly with regional institutions engaged in crisis mitigation and response • Collaborate in research and training.” (CDMHA, 2000A) Academia (Break Discipline Barriers Hazards Community Emergency Management Community Interest Groups Community Stakeholders Public Be Good Community Citizen 10/19/22 63 13E Foster Change Slide 38 "Universities have the responsibility to foster change." (Snow, 2001) In answer to the question “What we need to to change the culture of mitigation in this country?”, Bill Anderson of the National Science Foundation’s Hazard Research Program, responded: “…we need to give increasing attention to…educating the next generation of practitioners and researchers I think that we have not done a good job here and currently are not doing a good job, especially in the social sciences In engineering and the physical sciences we are in better shape, but the human resource base is lacking with regards to the hazards field….If we want to change our culture, we need to give more attention to those researchers who are going to be a part of society in years to come, because they will have the burden of making society safer.” (Environmental Hazards 2000, 48) “If you look around at both the pool of practitioners and the pool of researchers, what you find? That there are very few African Americans, and very few Hispanics….If we are going to change the national culture of hazard mitigation in the United States we’ve got to be inclusive and incorporate representatives of all groups that are vulnerable to natural hazards.” (Environmental Hazards 2000, 48) “Question: We are working on a program to train practitioners and we would love to have underrepresented communities involved I would like to hear your ideas on how we might attract those groups Bill Anderson: One suggestion I can think of immediately is to establish partnerships with minority institutions The historically black colleges and universities would be a good source of recruits A number of Universities and Community Colleges throughout the US have large pools of Hispanic students The University of Puerto Rico produces the largest number of undergraduate Hispanic engineers in the country and not only that, many of them are women I am thinking of the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez I think establishing partnerships with places like this would be very useful There are a number of success stories For example, among minority institutions, Georgia Tech has, over the years, produced the largest number of African American Ph.D.s in engineering and the reason is that they established connections with historically black Colleges and Universities in Atlanta (Morehouse, Spellman and so on) They have a very successful 3-2 program and as a result they graduate a large number of African American students Georgia Tech also has a large number of African American professors on the faculty who are attracted by this relationship with the historically black colleges So, think regionally or nationally You don’t need to think in terms of just the local area; that’s very important And look to the Community Colleges, because at the Community Colleges you have the lare percentages of underrepresented groups, and they are a wonderful source of recruits Studies indicate that students who graduate from those schools as effectively in a 4-year environment as others.” (Environmental Hazards 2000, 51.) 10/19/22 64 REFERENCES Adams, Robin (International Seismological Centre) and Robin Spence (Cambridge University) 1999 “Earthquake,” pp 52-54 in Ingleton Agribuzzreports@agribuzz.com 31 January 2001 "Indian Earthquake Update Alexander, David 2000 Confronting Catastrophe New Perspectives on Natural Disasters Oxford: Oxford University Press Alexander, David 2001 "Why Don't We Write An International Standard on Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness?" 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"Based on our analysis of persistent trends and transitions, the Board concludes that certain current trends of population and habitation, wealth and consumption, technology and work, connectedness... reinforced concrete and masonry construction, (2) use of lightweight roof systems with inadequate connections, (3) gravel ballast on built-up roofs… (4) growing popularity of light-framed, poorly connected... and placement, construction quality control, and land-use planning and regulation.” (Western States Seismic Policy Council 2000 http://www.wsspc.org/conf2000/packet/policy sessions.htm) “The group