Modeling Gray Wolf Habitat in Oregon Using a Geographic Information System

AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Tad Larsen for the degree of Master of Science in Forest Resources presented on July 13, 2004 Title: Modeling Gray Wolf Habitat in Oregon Using a Geographic Information System Abstract approved: William J Ripple Gray Wolves (Canis lupus) were once found throughout North America including Oregon Wolves were extirpated from Oregon due to heavy hunting pressure in the late 19th and early 20th centuries and have been absent for over 50 years Successful reintroduction efforts in Idaho and the greater Yellowstone area have caused wolf populations in the Rocky Mountain region to rise dramatically, giving way to wolf dispersal into Oregon This research used logistic regression and a Geographic Information System (GIS) to model and assess potential wolf habitat in Oregon Models based on previous research were analyzed to find the best approximating wolf habitat model These a priori models were formulated under the hypotheses that wolf habitat (1) will include relatively high densities of prey, (2) will be limited by human influence, (3) will include favorable landscape characteristics (e.g forest cover, public ownership), and (4) may be influenced by some combination of these factors The final model was tested and validated with wolf pack data from the Rocky Mountain region The results show that a habitat model including variables of forest cover and public land can successfully predict wolf habitat in the study area These results may assist natural resource managers in developing and implementing of a wolf management plan in Oregon In addition, because the data used for the habitat model are consistent across state boundaries and are easily accessible, these results may extend to other western states © Copyright by Tad Larsen July 13, 2004 All Rights Reserved Modeling Gray Wolf Habitat in Oregon Using a Geographic Information System by Tad Larsen A THESIS submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Presented July 13, 2004 Commencement June 2005 Master of Science thesis of Tad Larsen presented on July 13, 2004 APPROVED: Major Professor, representing Forest Resources Head of the Department of Forest Resources Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader upon request Tad Larsen, Author i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Facilities and research support were provided by the Environmental Remote Sensing Applications Laboratory (ERSAL) through the Forest Resources department in the College of Forestry, Oregon State University I would like to thank my committee, Bill Ripple, Bob Anthony, Bob Beschta, and Kate Lajtha I would also like to thank the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Parks, and Todd Black from Utah State University for providing the necessary data for this project Thanks to Betsy Glenn, Katie Dugger, and Jo Anne Larsen for your reviews Thanks are also in order for the staff, faculty, and fellow graduate students in the Forest Resources department and all the family and friends that have been so supportive through the process Finally, special thanks go to Jen for always being there for me ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Background Literature Cited CHAPTER 2: MODELING GRAY WOLF HABITAT IN OREGON USING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM Abstract .6 Introduction Prey Availability .8 Human Presence 10 Landscape Characteristics .13 Previous Models 14 Methods .16 Study Area .16 Spatial Data 17 Model Selection 21 Model Application 25 Estimating Capacity 25 Results .26 Spatial Data 26 Model Selection 27 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Model Application 30 Estimating Capacity 32 Discussion 32 Spatial Data 32 Model Selection 36 Model Application 36 Estimating Capacity 39 Acknowledgements 41 Literature Cited 42 CHAPTHER 3: CONCLUSIONS 48 BIBLIOGRAPHY 49 APPENDICES 55 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 Wolf packs in relation to random “non-pack” polygons 24 2.2 Modeled wolf habitat >50% in the Rocky Mountain region 31 2.3 Modeled wolf habitat >50% in Oregon 33 2.4 Modeled wolf habitat >50% in Oregon including private industrial forests in western Oregon .38 55 APPENDICES Appendix 1: Forest cover in the study area 56 Appendix 2: Public ownership in the study area 57 Appendix 3: Wolf habitat predicted by the final model >50% in the study area 58 Appendix 4: Elk winter range in Oregon 59 Appendix 5: Elk summer range in Oregon 60 Appendix 6: Deer winter range in Oregon 61 Appendix 7: Deer summer range in Oregon 62 Appendix 8: Ungulate density (Ungulate Biomass Index/sq km) 63 Appendix 9: Road density in Oregon (km/sq km) 64 Appendix 10: LandScan human presence data (humans/sq km) 65 Appendix 11: 2000 U.S Census bureau human density (humans/sq km) 66 Appendix 12: Precipitation in Oregon (mm.) 67 68 Appendix 14: Ungulate population estimates by wildlife management unit Wildlife Management Unit SADDLE MT SCAPPOOSE CHESNIMNUS SLED SPRINGS WENAHA WALLA WALLA COLUMBIA BASIN WILSON SNAKE RIVER MT EMILY BIGGS HOOD WHITE RIVER TRASK UKIAH WILLAMETTE MINAM SANTIAM CATHERINE CREEK IMNAHA HEPPNER STARKEY MAUPIN PINE CREEK FOSSIL KEATING STOTT MT SUMPTER DESOLATION ALSEA GRIZZLY LOOKOUT MT NORTHSIDE METOLIUS OCHOCO BEULAH MCKENZIE Elk Population 7700 2100 2900 2150 1400 1500 416 5400 3350 4600 416 110 1100 5200 5000 100 2000 5400 600 1100 2660 4700 416 500 2400 216 1255 2031 1365 4095 1500 470 2300 200 4600 1900 5200 Deer Population 9500 17000 3500 4700 1200 1615 1200 10200 2600 4800 6500 400 9000 25500 6767 15600 3300 26900 1800 4700 12825 4500 3060 2550 11900 4370 4800 7130 2174 68300 3500 3470 13917 5300 18000 13000 30300 Ungulate Biomass Index 32600 23300 12200 11150 5400 6115 2448 26400 12650 18600 7748 730 12300 41100 21767 15900 9300 43100 3600 8000 20805 18600 4308 4050 19100 5018 8565 13223 6269 80585 8000 4880 20817 5900 31800 18700 45900 69 Wildlife Management Unit MURDERERS CREEK UPPER DESCHUTES PAULINA SIUSLAW MALHEUR RIVER MAURY SILVIES OWYHEE INDIGO WAGONTIRE MELROSE TIOGA FORT ROCK STEENS MT JUNIPER SIXES DIXON ROGUE SILVER LAKE POWERS CRATER LAKE N P WHITEHORSE EVANS CREEK SPRAGUE KENO WARNER INTERSTATE BEATYS BUTTE CHETCO KLAMATH FALLS APPLEGATE WMSP INDIAN RES Elk Population 1800 500 1100 1500 1400 900 2300 2000 300 1400 8000 3650 0 1750 2775 1650 1400 0 600 200 200 150 0 1000 100 Deer Population 9900 1900 15400 26300 11800 4500 8850 4900 24000 1240 12900 8300 9000 5360 1495 15000 33000 20400 7000 5300 1500 11400 300 1568 6909 1100 14400 3410 13000 Ungulate Biomass Index 15300 3400 18700 30800 16000 7200 15750 4900 30000 2140 17100 32300 19950 5360 1495 20250 41325 25350 7000 9500 1500 13200 900 2168 450 6909 1100 17400 3410 13300 ... many variables that measure human impact are 20 used, these data may provide a more accurate assessment for modeling wolf habitat than census data alone In addition, 2000 U.S Census data at the... July 13, 2004 All Rights Reserved Modeling Gray Wolf Habitat in Oregon Using a Geographic Information System by Tad Larsen A THESIS submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment... MODELING GRAY WOLF HABITAT IN OREGON USING A GEOGRPAHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM Tad E Larsen and William J Ripple1 Department of Forest Resources, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331 Abstract Gray