Highlights from Climate Change Technical Committee Meeting

Highlights from Climate Change Technical Committee Meeting August 10, 2006 • The Technical Committee has been asked to present the building blocks to the Coordinating Committee on October 24 Rick Palmer will draft the presentation Rick is looking for volunteers to help with the presentation Please not hesitate to volunteer • Tamie will circulate a list of what is currently on the official website for the group to review Rick will share what is on his UW TAG website The group can discuss these at a future meeting See below • The committee reviewed Building Blocks 12 and 13 There was considerable discussion on BB 12, so Rick Palmer will set up a website to allow further dialog [NOTE: The website has been set up and instructions on how to participate have been sent to committee members.] Committee members were asked to visit the website to weigh in on the discussion so that the committee may come to conclusion at the next meeting The committee did agree to switch the order for Building Blocks 12 and 13 Some changes were made to new BB 12; Rick and his students will make the requested revisions and circulate to the committee prior to the next meeting • Some committee members have sent in suggested changes to the other 11 Building Blocks The document was revised to incorporate the minor suggestions; a few larger changes will need to be discussed by the committee at the next meeting before they can be made An additional meeting on September 27 has been scheduled to ensure time to finalize the Building Blocks before presentation to the Coordinating Committee • The committee reviewed the matrix of the original 14 questions from the charter The first two have been answered Some questions can be answered from existing studies, some will be addressed through the newly funded work to evaluate climate change impacts on water resources, and some are beyond the scope of the committee’s work Prior to the next meeting, Rick and Matt Wiley will revise the matrix to group the questions into these categories and they will also add deliverables They will also develop a work plan for the newly funded work to evaluate climate change impacts on water resources (also known as “the proposal”) for the committee to review at the next meeting The purpose of this workplan is to manage the committee’s expectations of what can be done as well as to manage expectations for what the UW Climate Impacts Group can produce in the allowed budget and timeframe • The committee confirmed the meeting schedule for the remainder of the year as follows: Thursday, August 10 (Kelly will verify whether that date change works for him and let Tamie know); September 13; October 11; November 8; December 13 Please note these on your calendar Next meeting: August 13, 9:00 AM-noon, UW Climate Impact Group office Add September 27, 9:00 AM-noon Other future meeting dates are October 11, November 8, and December 13 Please hold these on your calendar King County Climate Change Impacts Project Information Researchers in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Department of Computer Sciences and Engineering at the University of Washington are supporting water demand and wastewater planning efforts for King County and the surrounding region The overall purpose is to address potential impacts of population increase and climate change on water resources and water management in King County and the surrounding regions The Co-Principal Investigators are Dr Richard Palmer (CEE) and Dr Alan Borning (CSE) Two primary efforts are currently underway Wastewater Task A primary study objective is to determine if climate change will increase precipitation intensity, thus creating impacts on stormwater runoff and management Three approaches are being pursued: 1) a literature review of papers relevant to the U.S and the Pacific Northwest, in particular, 2) an evaluation of past precipitation data available for western Washington, and 3) an analysis of data from an MM5 model that attempts to simulate future climate conditions From these analyses, wastewater baseflows will be generated to model future municipal flows in King County’s wastewater collection system The future flows will be modeled by sewer sub-basin to match King County’s existing sewer system model Of particular interest are shifts in peak-flows and their impact on current design standards for sewer and stormwater conveyance Water Demand Task Researchers are currently reviewing a new demand forecasting model developed by Seattle Public Utilities Appropriate features from the demand model and from King County Wastewater Treatment Division’s forecasts will be integrated into a single framework using outputs from the UrbanSim model The utility of the demand models and forecasts will be assessed through their ability to: Model water demand for all of King County Use demographic and landuse/land cover output from UrbanSim Account for price influence on water demand Account for changes in supply on price Account for drought condition influence on water demand Differentiate between consumption vs irrigation uses Account for differences in plumbing codes and plumbing efficiencies Account for future conservation and demand management measures Generate estimates of water demand for inclusion in the water supply plan TAG will be assisting King County and regional utilities participating in the water supply planning process to develop future water demand scenarios Model inputs for the demand model will be specified and expressed through the water demand model The inputs will address: demographic and land use/land change scenarios generated from UrbanSim, different conservation approaches, and differing climate conditions Regional Planning Process A regional planning process in the Puget Sound region is currently underway The participants of this planning process include: Muckleshoot Indian Tribe, Washington Department of Ecology, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Health, Public Health - Seattle & King County, King County, Pierce County , City of Auburn, Suburban Cities Association, Cascade Water Alliance, Cedar River Water and Sewer District, Lakehaven Utility District, Seattle Public Utilities, Tacoma Public Utilities, Woodinville Water District, Shared Strategy for Puget Sound, Center for Environmental Law & Policy, Washington Environmental Council, and the King County Business Community This planning process is documented at: http://www.govlink.org/regional-waterplanning/index.htm The purpose of this voluntary planning process is to provide technical information that can contribute to informed decision making in the region Within this planning process seven technical committees have been establish to address a number of technical issues These committees are: Water Supply, Water Demand, Climate Change, Reclaimed Water, Source Exchange Strategies, Tributary Streamflow, Small Water Systems Researchers at the University of Washington are supporting the Climate Change Committee and information related to that committee’s mission and activities will be posted on this unofficial webpage Please note that only information posted at the www.govlink.org site should be considered “official.” This webpage is maintained to provide access to material in a more timely fashion than is possible at the www.govlink.org site Documents associated with the regional planning committee can be found here Also included at this site is a discussion forum that facilitates progress on documents in between the scheduled monthly meetings TAG Climate Change Projects and Documents Relevant Projects Related To Climate Change Impacts On Water Resources Wiley, M.W., Palmer, R.N., and Salathe, E.P.(submitted 2006) "The Development of GCM Based Climate Scenarios for use in Water Resource System Impact Evaluations " submitted to J Water Resource Planning and Management Payne, J.T., Wood, A.W., Hamlet, A.F., Palmer, R.N and Lettenmaier, D.P (2004) "Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin." Climatic Change, 62(1-3), 233-256 Christensen, N.S., Wood, A.W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D.P and Palmer, R.N (2004) "Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin." Climatic Change, 62(1-3), 337-363 VanRheenen, N.T., Palmer, R.N., and Hahn, M.A (2003) "Evaluating Potential Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Systems Operations: Case Studies of Portland, Oregon and Central Valley, California." Water Resources Update, 124, 35-50 Wood A.W., Lettenmaier, D.P., and Palmer, R.N (2000) "Reply to comment by Kirshen on 'Assessing climate change implications for water resources planning'." Climatic Change, 44, 539-541 Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, A.W, Palmer, R.N., Wood, E.F and Stakhiv, E.Z (1999) "Water resources implications of global warming: a U.S regional perspective." Climatic Change, 43(3), 537-79 Wood A.W., Lettenmaier, D.P., and Palmer, R.N., (1997) "Assessing climate change implications for water resources planning." Climatic Change, 37, 203228 Conference Proceedings VanRheenen, N.T., Palmer, R.N., Hamlet, A.F., and Lettenmaier, D.P (2003) "Climate change, fish, agriculture, and power: impacts and implications for future Snake River water resources management." Proc of the World Water & Environmental Resources Congress 2003, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 2326 VanRheenen, N.T and Palmer, R.N (2002) "Preparing for an uncertain future: adaptive management strategies and alternative approaches to mitigate the impacts of climate change in California’s Central Valley." Proc of the 2002 Environmental and Water Resources Institute Conference on Water Resources Planning and Management and Symposium on Managing the Extremes - Floods and Droughts, Roanoke, Virginia, May 19-22 Palmer, R.N., VanRheenen, N.T., Lettenmaier, D.P., Payne, J.T., Hamlet, A.F., and Wood, A.W (2001) "Projected climate change implications for Western U.S water resources management." Proc of the 2001 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 10-14 VanRheenen, N.T., Palmer, R.N., Wood, A.W., and Lettenmaier, D.P (2001) "Climate change impacts on water supply system management in Central California." Proc of the 2001 American Water Resources Association Annual Water Resources Conference, Albuquerque, New Mexico, November 12-15 VanRheenen, N.T., Wood, A.W., Palmer, R.N., Payne, J.T., and Lettenmaier, D.P (2001) "The effects of climate change on water management strategies and demands in the Central Valley of California." Proc of the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Orlando, Florida, May 20-24 Reports and Theses Ball, J.A (2004) "Impacts of Climate Change on the Proposed Lake Tapps-White River Water Supply," Master's thesis, University of Washington Wiley, M.W (2004) "Analysis Techniques to Incorporate Climate Change Information into Seattle’s Long Range Water Supply Planning," Master's thesis, University of Washington Palmer, R.N., Clancy, E., VanRheenen, N.T., and Wiley, M.W (2004) "The Impacts of Climate Change on The Tualatin River Basin Water Supply." Prepared for Clean Water Services, April Palmer, R.N and Hahn, M.H (2002) "The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland's Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic and Management Impacts on the Bull Run System." Prepared for the Portland Water Bureau, January (Appendices) Presentations Palmer, Richard, Matthew W, Wiley, Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Restoration on Chinook Salmon in the Snohomish Basin, Climate Impacts Group Seminar, January 26, 2006 Korb, Liz, Matthew W, Wiley, Richard N Palmer, James Battin, Krista Bartz, Hiroo Imaki, Mary Ruckelshaus, Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Restoration on Chinook Salmon in the Snohomish Basin, Snohomish Basin Salmonid Recovery Techical Committee, Department of Fish and Wildlife, December 6, 2005 Palmer, Richard N., Matthew Wiley, Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply in the Pacific Northwest: Is it an Issue? Denman Lecture Series, University of Seoul, South Korea, November 17, 2005 Wiley, Matthew W., Richard N Palmer Climate Change Impacts on Snowpack and Water Supply in Washington State Presented at the King County Department of Natural Resources, Water and Land Resource Division's Science Seminar series, November 29, 2005 Wiley, Matthew W., Richard N Palmer and Andre Ball Incorporating uncertainty in water resource planning for climate change Presented at the American Water Resources Association, National Meeting Seattle, Washington, November 7-10, 2005 Wiley, Matthew W and Richard N Palmer Climate and land use change impacts on the Endangered Salmon Populations in the Snohomish River Basin, Washington Presented at the American Water Resources Association, National Meeting Seattle, Washington, November 7-10, 2005 Wiley, Matthew W and Richard N Palmer Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the City of Seattle's Water Supply Presented at the Puget Sound / Georgia Basin 2005 Research Conference, March 29, 2005 Palmer, R.N., Wiley, M., and Kame'enui, A Will climate change impact water supply and demand in the Puget Sound? Presented at the Univ of Washington Center for Water and Watershed Studies Annual Review 2004, Seattle, WA, February VanRheenen, N.T and Palmer, R.N Impacts and implications of climate change on Snake River water resources management Presented at the Univ of Washington Center for Water and Watershed Studies Annual Review 2004, Seattle, WA, February VanRheenen, N.T and Palmer, R.N Future Snake River streamflow scenarios, system management, and decision analysis in the face of dwindling fish stocks, thirsty farmers, demanding energy users, effective lobbyists, government "solutions," tragically slow decision-making processes, and climate change Presented at the Climate Impacts Group Weekly Seminar Series, Seattle, WA, May 27 Palmer, R.N Climate Change and Its Regional Impacts, Presented at NARUC (National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners) 115th Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, November 2003 VanRheenen, N.T Modeling the Snake River Basin: climate change streamflow scenarios and system response, Presented at Idaho Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2004 Water Year, Boise, Idaho, September 16 VanRheenen, N.T., Climate Change, Fish, Agriculture, and Power: Impacts and Implications for Future Snake River Water Resources Management, Presented at the World Water & Environmental Resources Congress 2003, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 23-26, 2003 VanRheenen, N.T., Preparing for an uncertain future: adaptive management strategies and alternative approaches to mitigate the impacts of climate change in California’s Central Valley, Presented at 2002 Environmental and Water Resources Institute Conference on Water Resources Planning and Management and Symposium on Managing the Extremes - Floods and Droughts, Roanoke, Virginia, May 2002 VanRheenen, N.T., Projected climate change implications for Western U.S water resources management, Presented at 2001 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 2001 VanRheenen, N.T., Climate change impacts on water supply system management in Central California, Presented at the 2001 American Water Resources Association Annual Water Resources Conference, Albuquerque, New Mexico, November 2001 VanRheenen, N.T., The effects of climate change on water management strategies and demands in the Central Valley of California, Presented at the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Orlando, Florida, May 2001 Myers, A and Palmer, R., Modeling the Impacts of the Endangered Species Act on Water Resources in the Puget Sound, Presented at ASCE’s 2000 Joint Conference on Water Resources Engineering and Water Resources Planning and Management, Minneapolis, MN, August 2000 Link Bar Updated 05/11/2006 ... for climate change Presented at the American Water Resources Association, National Meeting Seattle, Washington, November 7-10, 2005 Wiley, Matthew W and Richard N Palmer Climate and land use change. .. tragically slow decision-making processes, and climate change Presented at the Climate Impacts Group Weekly Seminar Series, Seattle, WA, May 27 Palmer, R.N Climate Change and Its Regional Impacts, Presented... Systems Researchers at the University of Washington are supporting the Climate Change Committee and information related to that committee? ??s mission and activities will be posted on this unofficial