Thesis proposal - H.

LONG TERM ENERGY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND GREEN HOUSE GAS MITIGATION WITH REGIONAL ENERGY TRADE: CASE STUDY OF VIETNAM by Nguyen Ngoc Hung Thesis proposal Examination Committee: Nationality: Previous Degree: Scholarship Donor: Prof Ram M Shrestha (Chairman) Prof Sivanappan Kumar Dr Animesh Dutta Vietnamese Bachelor of Engineering in Energy Economics Hanoi University of Technology Hanoi City, Vietnam Electricity of Vietnam Asian Institute of Technology School of Environment, Resources and Development Thailand October 2005 Table of Contents Chapter Title Page Title page .i Table of Contents .ii List of abbreviations iv List of tables .v List of figures vi Introduction 1.1 Background of the study 1.2 Statement of problem .1 1.3 Objectives of the study .2 1.4 Scope and limitation 1.5 Organization of report Literature review 2.1 Review of energy planning models 2.2 Regional energy trade and its role 2.2.1 Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) study 2.2.2 ASEAN Interconnection Master Plan Study (AIMS) 2.2.3 Regional Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnection in GMS 2.2.4 Regional Cooperation Strategy on Interconnected Networks in Indochina 2.2.5 2.3 The Trans-ASEAN Energy Network Emission trading .8 2.4 MARKAL as a tool for regional/national integrated energy planning and emission trading 2.5 Research concerns 11 2.6 Overview of MARKAL Model 12 2.6.1 Features of MARKAL Model 12 2.6.2 Overview of Computing System 14 2.6.3 Model generated by MARKAL 14 2.6.4 MARKAL Family of Models .15 Methodology 18 3.1 Study flow 18 3.2 Developing regional model 19 ii 3.2.1 Data requirements 19 3.2.2 Data sources and collection 19 3.2.3 National databases 19 3.2.4 Regional database .24 3.3 Examining effects of CO2 constraint and tax 25 3.4 Modeling energy trade 26 3.5 Modeling emission trade 28 Work schedule and research budget 29 List of references 30 iii List of abbreviations AAECP : ASEAN- Australia Economic Cooperation Project ACE : ASEAN Centre for Energy AIM : Asia-Pacific Integrated Model AIMS : ASEAN Interconnection Master plan Study ASCOPE : ASEAN Council on Petroleum ASEAN : Asia South East Association of Nations BEEAM : Brookhaven Energy Economic Assessment Model CDM : Clean Development Project EGEAS : Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System EPSAP : Energy Policy System Analysis Project FCCC : Framework GMS : Greater Mekong Sub region EFOM : Energy Flow Optimization Model HAPUA : Heads of ASEAN Power Utility/Authorities IET : International Emission Trading JI : Joint Implementation LEAP : LDC Energy Alternatives Planning MAC : Marginal Abatement Cost MARKAL : Market Allocation PDPAT : Power Development Planning Assist Tool RES : Reference Energy System TAGP : Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline WASP : Wien Automatic System Package Planning iv List of tables Table 2-1 – Comparison of Bottom-up and Top-down types of model Table 2-2 – Research gaps in the literature 12 Table 4-1 – Work Schedule 29 Table 4-2 – Research budget 29 v List of figures Figure 2-1 – MARKAL Reference Energy System 13 Figure 2-2 - Simplified MARKAL software system diagram 14 Figure 2-3 – MARKAL-MACRO structure .16 Figure 2-4 – Price/Demand Trade-off curve in MARKAL MICRO/MED 16 Figure 3-1 – Study flow .18 Figure 3-2 – Typical RES for competing devices in residential cooking 21 Figure 3-3 – Simplified RES of coal sector .23 Figure 3-4 – Simplified RES of electricity sector 23 Figure 3-5 – Simplified RES of oil refinery .24 Figure 3-6 – Methodology for examination of CO2 constraint and tax on energy system 26 Figure 3-7 – Illustration of modeling bilateral energy trade between Vietnam and Laos 27 Figure 3-8 – Procedure for examining effects of regional trade on energy system 28 Figure 3-9 – Joint Implementation scheme for regional model 28 vi Chapter Introduction 1.1 Background of the study Vietnam has recorded groundbreaking economic growth with the average GDP increase of 7.44% in the past 13 years of period 1990-2003 after shifting to the market economy following the "Doi Moi" (renovation) policy in 1986, and resuming the economic assistance from Western countries in 1991 During this time, in order to satisfy total final energy consumption rapidly rising at the speed of 11 per cent per year, total primary energy supply had increased at the annual rate of 9.44 per cent (Institute of Energy, 2005) Consequently, energy infrastructures and facilities had been developed significantly to meet energy demand growth In addition, for the purpose of maintaining the sustainable socio-economic development, it is expected that energy demands in future should be kept rising annually at level of over 10 per cent At present, major parts of the energy system are under management of Ministry of Industry such as electricity, coal, oil and gas sectors However, these sectors have built their own master plans (at the moment, Institute of Energy has initiated the Master Plan Study on Power Development Sixth stage) instead of formulating an integrated plan for energy development in order to have consistency strategies for each of these sectors The trend of globalization and international trade is also a challenge for development It causes several certain difficulties for domestic producers and puts them under pressure of competitiveness However, regional energy trade helps countries environmentally sound supply of energy at affordable costs and promotion of regional integration through long term (Behrens, 1990) Energy import becomes very important when it is expected that after 2010 domestic primary energy supply is not able to fulfill energy need (Institute of Energy, 2004) Although environmental impact is not currently very urgent for Vietnam in comparison with other issues, however, environmental aspects should be considered in development strategies for energy sector because of its contribution to GHGs emission and other pollutions 1.2 Statement of problem In several next decades, the following issues are really challenges to be faced by Vietnam:  High energy demand growth rate  Limitations on domestic energy supply capability  Lack of financial sources for development that accounts for 25 to 30 per cent of nation wide investment requirement  Old and inefficient technologies have been using in both supply and demand sides for a long time  Restructuring of inefficient energy sector to strengthen competitiveness in the context of globalization and market integration  Environmental degradation caused by energy development In order to overcome difficulties and fulfill development tasks in future, the National Energy Policy (Ministry of Industry, 2005) can be summarized in two following aspects:  Ensuring the provision of adequate, secure and effective energy supply by developing indigenous energy resources, applying advanced technologies, enhancing regional cooperation and diversifying energy sources  Ensuring that factors pertaining to environmental protection are not neglected Therefore, a development plan looking at the whole energy system and putting Vietnam in regional market integration is critical Such a strategy can be examined by using MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) model, a dynamic, process oriented optimization model (Fishbone et al 1981) This model enables energy policy makers and planners to assess the impacts and cost effectiveness of alternative energy policy options which could assist countries to formulate policies and programs to help meet the demand for energy services at least cost Traditionally, MARKAL has been applied to a single geographic area, normally a country, state or municipality However, the need to examine the potential benefits of cooperation between regions or other stakeholders has become an increasingly important for the development of cost-effective climate change mitigation and energy infrastructure development strategies (International Resources Group, 2003) 1.3 Objectives of the study  To develop regional energy database for MARKAL model consisting of four Indochina countries of Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia;  To examines implications of regional energy trade and increased regional cooperation to Vietnam energy system;  To analyze the effect of energy system of emission constraints and carbon tax;  To examine preliminary options for emission trade among the countries in the region; and  To determines policies and programs for Vietnam in long term under projected demand 1.4 1.5 Scope and limitation  The planning horizon of the study is 2000 - 2030  The study focuses to formulate policy options for Vietnam only  MARKAL energy databases developed for three neighboring countries (e.g Laos, Cambodia, Thailand) are not disaggregated especially in demand side  CO2 is the only gas among GHGs included in database  Price elasticities of energy demand is ignored  Demand side effect of carbon tax will not be considered  Mitigation options in non energy sector are ignored Organization of report The study consists of seven chapters and appendixes Chapter gives introduction for the study Chapter overview literatures related to the issues to be addressed in the study Chapter discusses methodology and study flow of the research work Chapter looks at the current situation and orientation development of Vietnam energy system Main results of the study are contained in Chapter and analyzed in depth in Chapter Finally, Chapter summarizes main results, conclusions and recommendations as well for the study MARKAL energy database and some relevant data are displayed in Appendix Chapter Literature review Chapter gives the overview of literature related to the study Literature review covers five main aspects: (1) energy planning models, (2) role of regional energy trade with particularly respect to studies involving Vietnamese energy system, (3) concept of emission trade, (4) application of regional versions of MARKAL model around the world and (5) introduction of MARKAL model from the standard version to its variants Based on the review, gaps and limitations of these studies and necessary improvements for the study are identified 2.1 Review of energy planning models Pan (1999) had reviewed mathematical programming models solving optimization problem Some fundamental models are summarized as follows: Linear programming (LP) modeling approach deals with the problem of minimizing or maximizing a linear objective function with a set of linear equality and inequality constraints Alternative optimization models have been proposed in the literature and some of them have been widely used in the power industry, including mixed-integer programming, nonlinear programming (quadratic programming – QP), stochastic programming and multi-objective programming Dynamic programming (DP) has been proved to be especially useful for utility resource planning, which convert a multistage optimization problem into a series of simple problems Walter et al (1990) had reviewed the various types of special programming models Their organization of supply models by optimization methodologies are as follows: Econometric supply models describe the supply for specific commodities at different stages of process This type of model can be statistical or econometric Flow models are formulated around the classical transportation problem at determining the optimal route of a product BESOM, TESOM or EFOM can be classified under this type Capacity expansion models describe the transition from the system presently existing to the system of the future Standard MARKAL is a representative for the type of inter-temporal capacity expansion model Dynamic programming models seem a powerful approach to the expansion optimization problems WASP and EGEAS are two representative commercial generation expansion packages widely used around the world that use DP in conjunction with probabilistic simulation Multi-objective programming models find optimal problem solutions where not one but several objectives have to be satisfied GRESOM/EFOM or MARKAL with Goal Programming are able to deal the multi-objective problem Special programming models, additional kinds of programming models, are extended to include variants of basic nonlinear programming algorithms such as elementary spatial programming, quadratic programming, mixed integer programming, linear complementary programming… 3.2 Developing regional model 3.2.1 Data requirements Input data for a MARKAL energy database include scenario assumptions, demand projections, technical and economic data of the available energy resources and relevant energy technology options (AAECP Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Project, October 2003) In more detail, elements of MARKAL input include:  Values of global parameters specifying the time horizon, the diurnal and seasonal time divisions (optional), the discount rate, etc;  Codes for elements of the energy system and their assignment to sets for specifying the model structure and categorizing the elements therein - time periods, demands, various types of technologies, energy carriers, etc;  Each period value for the total annual energy demand of the economic sectors and for the respective shares of fuels foreseen for meeting the demand; and  Data characterizing the technologies of the supply network including their technical, economic and environmental characteristics 3.2.2 Data sources and collection MARKAL requires large amount of data to represent energy system from supply to end use, therefore data collection for MARKAL database should be realized as a challenge for the study Data for Vietnam MARKAL model can be achieved from relevant reports and studies of following institutions:  Institute of Energy  Ministry of Industry  Institute of Strategy Development, Ministry of Planning and Investment  Electricity of Vietnam  General Bureau of Statistic Data for other countries will be collected from these sources:  Relevant studies reviewed in Chapter  Energy Program, Asian Institute of Technology  ASEAN Centre for Energy  Regional cooperation projects 3.2.3 National databases National MARKAL models will be developed for each country based on data collection The combination of country models forms the core of the regional model (Kanudia and Loulou, 1997) MARKAL models can vary from country to country because of characteristics of energy systems and availability of data RES is the representation of the energy system of a country from sources of fuels through conversion and transformation, to final use of fuel in end-use devices satisfying useful energy MARKAL databases may be very different in 20 detail level and flexibility on both the supply side and the demand side An advanced model must allow high possibilities of fuel substitution on the demand side Intelligent Energy System (2002) described requirements of input for MARKAL in details Data for MARKAL model in ANSWER V5 are categorized into groups: global, energy, material, emission, technology, tax/subsidy, stochastic, constraint and trade Among these groups, material data are used for Material version of MARKL to model flow of material; tax/subsidy data are employed to examine the effect of imposing tax or subsidy on energy (fuel) uses or productions; stochastic data are input for version of MARKAL stochastic; constraint section stores data related to user-defined constraints; and trade data are used for linking regions in a regional model Basically data requirements for a standard version of MARKAL are discussed below The first requirement of data in MARKAL is global data that specify the follows:  Discount rate  Fraction of time for seasonal and diurnal periods (three seasons and two diurnal time slices in maximum)  Start year specifying the point of time used for convert future values of money to present value Energy data provide characteristics of types of energy carriers that appear in planning Energy carriers could be fossil fuels (solid, gaseous and liquid), renewable, nuclear, electric etc… Apart from electricity, other carriers only require transmission efficiency specifying losses in delivery from sources to end use Multiple electricity grids can be specified for MARKAL with power plant and consumer identified as belonging to a particular grid For countries with no significant transmission constraints, electricity is modeled by one electricity energy carrier, or grid, indicative of the fully integrated electricity systems in those (case of Thailand) For the other countries multiple grids may be used with interconnection between various grids (e.g Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia) MARKAL requires that certain system characteristics be specified for each grid These include:  Transmission and distribution investment costs;  Transmission and distribution O&M costs;  Reserve margin;  Transmission efficiency (covering both transmission and distribution losses) Emission data allows users define as many as emission in a database Data associated with an emission are emission factors (t/PJ) from combustion of specific fuel In this section of data, limitations on emission can be specified in two ways: particular target for each year or cumulative amount for the whole planning horizon Demand data include specification of end use demand and demand projections for those The end use demand sectors in MARKAL are categorized into agriculture, industry, commerce, residential, transport and non-energy End use demand in MARKAL ideally are service demand (e.g lighting, steam, cooking, traffic…) rather than energy demand (e.g final energy consumption) In this case, fuel substitutions in demand side can be achieved by competing devices and fuels There are two types of end use demand: uniform demand 21 and time-varied demand, the later is used for electricity or district heat, while the former for other energy carriers Each of these sectors can be subdivide into sub industry and/or end uses For example, industrial use may have industry categories:  Steel and Metals;  Fabricated metals;  Construction;  Chemicals/plastics;  Cement;  Paper;  Wood/Building materials;  Textiles Where end uses are identified for industrial electricity, they include:  Lighting;  Air-conditioning;  Refrigeration; and  Motors Residential uses typically include:  Cooking;  Rice cooking;  Lighting;  Air-conditioning;  Water heating; and  Electrical appliances 22 Electricity Electric stove Kerosene LPG Coal Wood Kerosene stove LPG stove Residential cooking Coal stove Wood stove Figure Methodology-6 – Typical RES for competing devices in residential cooking Transport sector may have various means of transportation, they include:  Car;  Taxi;  Truck;  Bus;  Motorcycle/Tricycle;  Air;  Rail;  Ship Some of them can be grouped for competition to supply one kind of service demand, for example, car, taxi, bus and motorcycle can compete to provide passenger transport More over, car may use various types using different fuels such as gasoline, LPG, electric The detail level of end use demands may vary much depending on data availability The study is able only to describe much detail in Vietnamese energy sector and partly in Thai one Other countries may have aggregate demand resulting from lack of data and very low demand level and less choices in demand technologies For technology data, a typical MARKAL database contains four type of technology that can be divided into:  Resource technologies covering primary energy supply, imports and exports;  Conversion technologies provide electricity generation and interconnection;  Process technologies mostly represent oil refinery and gas pipeline;  Demand technologies that are used by consumers to provide useful energy services such as a gasoline car used in transportation 23 Technology data may include the investment cost of providing new capacity, fixed and variable operating costs, lifetime, availability, efficiency, type of fuel used, delivery cost of input fuels, outputs and the date of first availability of the technology For resource technologies, the cost of supply is normally provided along with any bounds on use either on an annual or cumulative reserve over the study horizon Coal mines, onshore/offshore natural gas fields, oil mines as well as import/export of fuel are example of this type of technology Under ground coal mine Coal export Open cut coal mine Coal fired power plants Coal import Industrial boilers Energy carrier: Coal Figure Methodology-7 – Simplified RES of coal sector Conversion technologies cover generating plant and interconnection Main types of power plants for the four countries are:  Coal fired  Gas open turbine  Combined cycle gas turbine  Oil fired  Gas fired  Hydro  Pumped storage  Nuclear and so on Power plants can be classified as centralized or decentralized to represent a power plant embedded nearby load center (decentralized, e.g diesel generator) or a plant located far away from electric load 24 Decentralized plants, diesel generator Electric stoves Transmission investment and O&M costs Transmission loss Distribution investment and O&M costs Centralized plants, coal fired power plants Energy carrier: Electricity Figure Methodology-8 – Simplified RES of electricity sector Vietnam has the back-bone 500kV transmission line from North to South that needs modeling as interconnection in database to reflect power transfer capability among regions Laos and Cambodia also have some similar transmission lines necessary to input into national model Process technologies represent mostly oil refinery and gas pipeline in the four countries At the moment, only Thai energy system has oil refinery infrastructure It is expected that the first refinery in Vietnam comes into picture in 2009 Vietnam currently has two gas pipelines transmitting natural gas from offshore fields to the South of the country There are also gas pipelines in operation between Thailand and Myanmar Oil refinery Gasoline Diesel Crude Oil Kerosene Jet turbine fuel Gasoline car Diesel truck Kerosene cooker Air plane Figure Methodology-9 – Simplified RES of oil refinery In addition, other data can be put into model to make them more realistic such as tax/subsidy or additional user defined constraints The constraints may be bounds on total supply of one fuel (e.g total supply of gas from various gas fields in a country) or 25 maximum/minimum share of a technology capacity in total capacity (e.g the share of electricity generation from renewable in total generating capacity) In general, inputting and calibrating data is the most important task that affect significantly on results from model runs, findings as well as conclusions made by the study In order to build a reasonable version for national database, some estimations and adaptations are expectedly needed 3.2.4 Regional database A national database stands for one region in the regional database in that national databases are linked Although national database can be used standalone for country policy study, however, the regional model requires further adaptations before merging into the regional database Three emerging sections need focusing on to develop a regional database (AAECP Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Project, 2003) The first note on combining national models is the difference in global data because of geographical location and climatic profile of each country Therefore it needs to have consistency in these data in all four countries Analyzing electric load curve and seasonal characteristics of hydro power plants can help form a suitable global data common for all countries Data must have common values, they are:  Discount rate  Fraction of time for seasonal and diurnal periods  Start year The second, also the heart of regional database, is trade data These data take responsibility to link national databases through bilateral/global energy trade Trade data allows several MARKAL models representing different regions to be merged into a single model, with a single joint objective function to minimize, and with special exchange variables representing the trading of various commodities between the regions (Loulou and Kanudia, 1998a) Normally, energy trade for each pair of countries is modeled as an additional region representing bilateral trade between the two countries (AAECP Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Project, October 2003) Building the linkages is mentioned in details in the Section 3.4 In energy trade, the prices at which permits and energy are sold are not directly relevant for the determination of the globally optimal strategy, since when several models are jointly optimized, the revenue and payments cancel out However, a price is quite essential in computing the allocation of the benefits of trade (Loulou and Kanudia (1998b) Emission trade is the last option for a regional database that can represent trading system of CO2 or other emission among countries Through emission trading, a country can buy an amount of emission, say CO2, from another country depending on marginal abatement cost of CO2 or a group of countries may achieve joint emission targets (Kanudia and Loulou, 1997) Modeling emission trade in the regional database is mentioned more detail in Section 3.5 of this Chapter In addition, a good coding system for the terms in databases also helps build regional model conveniently Hence, building a general code system for every term (e.g energy carriers, demands, emissions, technologies etc…) is the first task in developing national models and then the regional model 26 3.3 Examining effects of CO2 constraint and tax This section describes the methodology to achieve the third objective of the study The main achievements from this section are  Changes in fuel mix and capacity mix caused by CO2 constraints;  Trends of total cost of energy system;  Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve for CO2 emission; and  Appropriate CO2 tax (if possible) for Vietnam energy system Plotting MAC curves is a useful way to characterize the response of a model to emission controls MAC curves are derived by imposing progressively stricter constraints on allowed carbon emissions within the models and recording the resulting carbon shadow prices (implicit values of the carbon emission constraints) or by introducing progressively higher carbon taxes and recording the quantity of abated emissions (Chen, 2005) The MAC curves are upward-sloping curves: the marginal abatement cost rises as an increasing function of emission reduction rate (or emission reduction amount) Methodology for examining effects of CO2 constrains and tax on energy system is described in Figure Methodology-10 27 Base Case (no CO2 constraint) with total cost TC0 and cumulative emission TE0 Putting a constraint on cumulative GHG emission with reduction of 5%, 10%, 15%, and so on, with respect to TE0 Building the relationship between TC and TE Changes in fuel mix and capacity mix to meet emission targets Total cost TCX and cumulative emission TEX of CO2 limit cases Running CO2 limit cases Infeasible Reducing TEX by a small amount (say, 1000 tons of CO2) -> TEX’ Running model with constrain of TEX’ No Obtaining TCX’ from above runs Yes Stop Marginal abatement cost of CO2 for each level of reduction Propose appropriate CO2 tax Figure Methodology-10 – Methodology for examination of CO2 constraint and tax on energy system The procedure above will be carried out for both cases: Vietnam Model only and the regional model to find out the effect of regional trade on targets of CO2 reduction 3.4 Modeling energy trade The TRADE facility that was introduced in Version of MARKAL allows the various trading options and infrastructure to be readily defined In a single region MARKAL database, imports and exports of fuels are entered by specifying the fuel along with the trade cost and any limitations that might apply such as a limit on the annual amount of the fuel that can be traded In a multi-region database, trade can be entered in a similar manner but a more sophisticated approach is also possible where the trade is “internalised” between the countries involved In this approach, the essential construct for specifying a trade possibility within MARKAL is to link an export of a fuel in one region with an import in a second region (AAECP Energy Policy and Systems Analysis Project, 2003) Energy trades in the regional model for the four countries possibly are electricity, natural gas, coal, crude oil and petroleum products Modeling energy trade for any pair of countries is made by an additional region representing bilateral trade between the two 28 countries For example, bilateral energy trade between Laos and Vietnam can be modeled as follows: Vietnam V_L trade (as a region) Coal export Coal import Electricity import Electricity export Electric link Laos Coal export Coal import Electricity import Electricity export Figure Methodology-11 – Illustration of modeling bilateral energy trade between Vietnam and Laos Modeling similarly for other pair of countries, then there are six additional regions in the regional database, they are:  VL_Trade for Vietnam and Laos;  VC_Trade for Vietnam and Cambodia;  VT_Trade for Vietnam and Thailand;  LC_Trade for Laos and Cambodia;  LT_Trade for Laos and Thailand; and  CT_Trade for Thailand and Cambodia Additional regions were defined in the database to model the physical infrastructure and trade linkages for cross-border energy trade in gas and electricity The rational behind this way of modeling is allow an economic assessment of the physical links Therefore, it is necessary to model such links explicitly in the model including their economic characteristics In order to assess effect of energy trade on energy system, scenarios for trade is introduced For example, scenario VL_Trade is introduced to link exports and imports for Vietnam and Laos Therefore, when a model run (case) including this scenario means bilateral trade between Vietnam and Laos is allowed other wise the trade is ignored The effect on Vietnam energy system of regional trade can be assessed by comparing total cost of energy system in three scenarios: No cooperation (NC), Electricity Exchange (LE) Energy exchange (NE) The procedure is shown in Figure Methodology-12: 29 No Cooperation (NC) Electricity Exchange (LE) Energy exchange (NE) Comparison of total costs: TC0, TCL, TCN Changes in fuel mix Changes in capacity mix Changes in CO2 emission Figure Methodology-12 – Procedure for examining effects of regional trade on energy system 3.5 Modeling emission trade Emission trade in ANSWER is modeled as a global trade; there is no need to separate into bilateral trade between a pair of countries The common commodity for the market is CO2 emission Loulou and Kanudia (1998) discussed that emission trade in MARKAL can be modeled as Joint Mitigation (JM) to describe a situation where several players decide to jointly attain the Kyoto (or any other) target, by effecting emission abatement wherever it is most cost-effective, rather than impose specific targets for each player It is clear that from a conceptual viewpoint, JM is equivalent to an emission permit trading system limited to that group of players The regional model will be used to perform five sets of runs, each comprising ten runs, i.e one free emission run, and about nine with cumulative GHG emission reductions of from 5% to 50%, respectively, with respect to the 2000 emission levels The five sets are: no cooperation (NC), joint emission target (JE), electricity exchange (LE), energy exchange (NE), and joint emission target with energy exchange (JELE) Laos Thailand CO2 market Cambodia Figure Methodology-13 – Joint Implementation scheme for regional model 30 Vietnam Chapter Work schedule and research budget Tentative work schedule for the study is shown in the following table: Table Work schedule and research budget-3 – Work Schedule Activities July 2004 Aug 2004 Sept 2004 Oct 2004 Nov 2004 Dec 2004 Jan 2005 Feb 2005 Mar 2005 Proposal preparation Reading documents Data collection and construction of database Running model Analyzing results Thesis Writing Final Defense Cost estimation for conducting the study is made as follows: Table Work schedule and research budget-4 – Research budget Item Cost (Baht) Traveling (return air fare + airport tax + re-entry) 12,000 Data collection: 12,000 - Domestic institutions - International institutions - Internet + email Photocopy 1,000 Communication (telephone etc…) 2000 Printing 1,000 CD/Diskettes/Film 2,000 Total 30,000 31 Apr 2005 List of references AAECP Energy Policy & Systems Analysis Project (2003) The First Regional Study Draft Report: The Trans-ASEAN Energy Network, Vol AAECP Energy Policy & Systems Analysis Project (2003) The First Regional Study Draft Report: The Trans-ASEAN Energy Network, Vol ASEAN Council on Petroleum (ASCOPE) (2000) Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline Project Conceptual Master Plan, Vol ASEAN 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certificate market on electricity & CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries, Energy Policy, 33, 16, 2152-2163 36 Unger, T & Ekvall, T (2003) Benefits from increased cooperation & energy trade under CO2 commitments - The Nordic case Climate Policy, 3, 3, 279-294 37 Weyant, J., (1999) (Eds) The costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-model evaluation The Energy Journal, Special Issue, ISSN 0195-6574 38 Woerdman, E (2000) Implementing the Kyoto protocol: why JI & CDM show more promise than international emissions trading, Energy Policy, 28, 2938 34 ... diagram 14 Figure 2-3 – MARKAL-MACRO structure .16 Figure 2-4 – Price/Demand Trade-off curve in MARKAL MICRO/MED 16 Figure 3-1 – Study flow .18 Figure 3-2 – Typical RES for... types is shown in Table Literature review-1 Table Literature review-1 – Comparison of Bottom-up and Top-down types of model Model types Bottom-up Top-down Model representation Scope of application... System TAGP : Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline WASP : Wien Automatic System Package Planning iv List of tables Table 2-1 – Comparison of Bottom-up and Top-down types of model Table 2-2 – Research gaps